us in a constitutional crisis. we're going to go deep into that. buckeye of the beholder. ohio takes center stage again, this time for a fight over energy policy. we're live in youngstown and guess who else is on stage in ohio today? that's right, the boss man, bruce springsteen hits the trail with bill clinton for president obama and it begins in ohio today. and woeing women. who would have expected that libya would not be the biggest story out of the tuesday debate. instead, it is governor romney's binders full of women and the renewed effort by both campaigns to win over these swing suburban women voters. good morning from washington. it's thursday, october 18th, 2012. this is the daily rundown, i'm chuck todd. it's the middle of october, folks. this thing is racing by. let's get right to my first read of the morning. okay. with 19 days to go, the candidates are barnstorming the battleground states today. then the president and mitt romney share a stage again tonight -- this time for let sniping and more laughs. president holds a rally in manchester, new hampshire this morning. the vice president is in nevada. paul ryan, florida. bill clinton and springsteen, as we told you, ohio. stringstein w springsteen was a closer for obama in 2008 and will also make a stop for the president in ames, iowa today. the boss announced his support wednesday night quoting his song, "long walk home," saying the president is the best to lead us to a country where "no one crowds you and no one goes it alone." the president will also tape an appearance "the daily show" while in new york, the second of his presidency, before heading to the wall discovdorf astoria . wednesday on the trail things got more contentious as the president and romney picked up where they left off in tuesday night's debate. president tried to pull off a humble brag, if you will, while campaigning in iowa and ohio. >> we had our second presidential debate last night, and i'm still trying to get the hang of this thing. >> obama repeated a new favorite word for romney's economic proposals. >> you've heard of the new deal, ohio. you've heard of fair deal. mitt romney's trying to sell you a sketchy deal. but we're not buying it. >> campaigning in virginia, romney accused the president of failing to lay out a second term vision. >> we have one weekend left before our final debate and i hope he's able to come up with an agenda over the weekend. he seems to spend most of his time in these debates talking about why my plans aren't going to work. i wish he'd spend a little more time explaining why his plans have not worked. >> like the president did after the first debate, romney threw a few retorts into his stump speech that he wasn't able to come up with on tuesday night. >> he said, you know, we built pipelines that would go around the earth. i thought, it's just the one that comes from canada with the oil is the one we want. so that's the one i'm going too get. >> it is very possible that the presidential contest could all come down to demographics. today the campaigns are laser focused on a couple, including a big one -- women voters. specifically, frankly, suburban women voters. the obama campaign seized enthusiastically wednesday on romney's awkward description of his record, a very good record, of appointing women to top jobs as governor of massachusetts. >> i went to a number of women's groups and said, can you help us find folks? they brought us, whole binders full of women. >> well, binders full of women has become this week's big bird. mentioned at every campaign stop in the obama world. >> we don't have to collect a bunch of binders to find qualified talented, driven young women. we don't have to order up some binders to find qualified, talented, driven young women. >> binders full of qualified women, as if, my god, they exist! >> well, in virginia, romney tried to do a little damage control and fire back. >> this president has failed america's women. they've suffered in terms of getting jobs, they've suffered in terms of falling into poverty. >> this morning, the romney campaign is out with a video featuring some of the former governor's women cabinet members. these women were in that binder. >> i was personally struck by his humanity. >> they said we need to take care of those who can't take care of themselves. >> he totally gets working women. >> and today a group of women who work with romney when he was governor kick off a two-day "we know mitt" bus tour through iowa. romney and obama are also engaged in their own war over coal. a fight they kicked off at the debate tuesday night. >> this has not been mr. oil or mr. gas or mr. coal. i was in coal country. people grabbed my arms and say, please, save my job! when the president ran for office, he said if you build a coal plant, you can go ahead, but you'll go bankrupt. >> when i hear governor romney say he's a big coal guy, keep in mind when -- governor, when you were governor of massachusetts you stood in front of a coal plant and pointed at it and said, this plant kills. >> let's remember here, the whole issue of coal has shifted a little bit. five, eight years ago it was not cool to stand with coal in either party. and both of them were using talking points that the other had used to beat up on the other. well, that said, the president has always hedged on coal. why? illinois is a coal state and to the chagrin of environmental ilsil environmentalists, the president has been finding ways to be supportive of coal, but now this fight is really about one state whether it comes to coal -- ohio. in campaigning in southeastern ohio's coal country last night, the president went on an extended coal riff. >> and now he's running around talking like he's mr. coal. does anybody actually look at that guy and think, man, he's really into coal? did you see when he was doing that ad, he's in front of all these miners with hardhats? find out later they had to come. boss made them come. come on. >> that's a reference to an august romney rally which the campaigns have been sparring over since a local radio host reported that mine employees told him anonymously the mine was closed for the romney event. now the fight only escalated when romney began using the video of the rally in a campaign ad. >> policies of the current administration's got is attacking my livelihood. >> the mine was closed. lost the pay they needed. all to be props in romney's commercial. >> in the latest on this ad war -- the coal group is firing back in another ad this week. >> absolute lies. that's what these coal miners had to say about barack obama's claim that they were forced to attend a campaign rally for. >> as you can see, even ohio is being sliced and diced into different things, different conversations. when you're in toledo, you are talking auto bailout. when you're in the southeastern part of the state, you're talking coal. speaking of ads, spending on radio and tv ads has now passed the $800 million mark. of course, we're on page to reach $1 billion before it is election day. this is $1 billion just in the presidential race, folks. just in the presidential race. and just television ads. so far, $810 million has been spent on political ads for radio and television, local, national, cable, broadcast. team romney, which includes the romney campaign and his outside groups that are supporting romney or atashg being the president, is outspending team obama $457 million to $353 million. but the largest single spender, by far, is the obama campaign individually which is outspending the romney campaign individually $299 million tv ads to $164 million. this week alone, more than $58 million was being spent on tv ads. obama leads the pack with $20 million spent but romney close behind at $16.5 million. republican super pac american crossroads is next at $11 million this week. the pro-obama super pac priorities usa has spent just over $4 million. where is all that money being spent whether it comes to the battleground buys? it is all about this week -- ohio, ohio, ohio. 4 of the top 10 most saturated markets this week are in the buckeye state. and -- get this -- for the first time since the week of april 23rd, there is no virginia market in the top ten. by the way, one of the tells we told you about months ago was to keep an eye on where the battle was being waged most intensely in the month of october. if it was going to be in the new south battleground states of florida, north carolina and virginia, advantage obama. if it was going to be in the midwest, advantage romney. well, what does this list of markets tell you, at least this week? the battle right now is in the rust belt and the midwest. that in itself tells you that could be good news for romney. the man accused of trying to attack the new york federal reserve building is now under arrest in an elaborate al qaeda-inspired plot. the suspect was picked up by the fbi allegedly in the process of trying to detonate a 1,000-pound bomb. jonathan, one thing about this is that obviously it was a sting operation from the beginning when they identified this guy and found him over a year ago. but he was not a very bright individual, it appears. he didn't know he didn't have explosives. right? >> well, the fbi set him up with an informant. they met, talked about this, they traveled all the way from bangladesh, enrolled as a student under the guise at studying at a missouri college. then came to new york and scouted targets. police commissioner kelly says he may not have been sophisticated but in his view he was very, very dangerous. they were monitoring him for months as he scouted the new york stock exchange and other targets until officials say he finally settled on the fed. now what's extraordinary about this operation is, he literally drove this van that he believed was packed with 1,000-pound bomb. that's the equivalent of what hit the '93 trade center where six people were killed and 1,000 were injured. he drove that van down long island expressway into manhattan, down broodway, aadwai officials says he literally parked it here and officials were watching it by video in realtime. then he apparently went to a nearby hotel and by remote control tried to set off the explosives. but again, because there were fbi informants who provided some of the materials to this suspect, the bomb was a dud. so the suspect remains in cuddy as the investigation continues. but again, it appears he was a lone wolf. >> they're calling it al qaeda-inspired. it is not clear he had any connection to any of the disparate al qaeda groups, whether it was al qaeda in asia, southeast asia where he's from, or al qaeda in any other al qaeda affiliates. correct? >> right. some of the recordings he boasts that he has al qaeda contacts in banglade bangladesh. they have avenue not found any evidence of that. he was inspired. he read al qaeda's publications, "al qaeda inspire" magazine, followed the publications of anwar al awlaki who was killed in a drone strike and he praised osama bin laden saying he hoped to "destroy america." those are the words quoted in the court documents filed yesterday. >> was this fbi-led or nypd-led or was it really a joint operation? >> this one, joint terrorism task force, fbi agents working alongside nypd detectives and homeland security investigators with immigrations and custom enforcement all working following up the various leads. they continue to follow up who he was in contact with in missouri and california. but again, it appears he was a lone actor. >> jonathan dienst, our colleague at wnbc on the scene for us. coming up, that dreaded deadlock. what happens in the cales of an electoral college tie? folks, this is a real possibility this year. scarily so. plus, democratic congressman chris van hollen will be here in our studio. just 19 days left for the president to convince voters that he does have a vision and deserves a second term. oh -- and there's that little matter of the looming fiscal cliff. he's a budget guy. we'll talk him to about that. paul ryan fumbles a visit to the cleveland browns practice. browns are kind of used to fumbles. anyway, condoleezza rice, grabbed the ball, tried to help him out. but first, a look ahead at the schedules of president obama and mitt romney today. mitt romney kind of having a down day before the dinner. the president using the excuse of new york to sneak up to new hampshire. and i bet you this could be his last new hampshire stop before november. that's just a guess. you're watching "the daily rundown," only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier. celebrex can be taken with or without food. and it's not a narcotic. you and your doctor should balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen, and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning. they all may increase the chance of heart attack or stroke, which can lead to death. this chance increases if you have heart disease or risk factors such as high blood pressure or when nsaids are taken for long periods. nsaids, including celebrex, increase the chance of serious skin or allergic reactions or stomach and intestine problems, such as bleeding and ulcers, which can occur without warning and may cause death. patients also taking aspirin and the elderly are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. do not take celebrex if you've had an asthma attack, hives, or other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides. get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. nearly 66 million people watched president obama and governor romney go toe-to-toe on a range of topics tuesday night, but there's one thing that romney says people aren't hearing from the president. >> don't you think that it is time for him to finally put together a vision of what he had's do in the next four years if he were elected? he's got to come up with that over this weekend because there's only one debate left on monday. i just think the american people had expected that the president of the united states would be able to describe what he's going to do in the next four years. >> with me now, maryland democratic congressman chris van hollen to joins us on behalf of the obama campaign. congressman, good morning. respond to that critique. because it was also what jumped out at me, it was one question in particular. president's asked by a former 2008 supporter, older gentleman. he sits there and he says, you know what? i'm not as optimistic. and the president talked a lot about things he did in the first term, did not seem to say, okay, what is the second term going to look like. it is more of -- what? >> well, what the president pointed out was that he had inherited the mess that we have may substantial progress since then. president pointed out we'd had 31 consecutive months of positive private sector job growth and he says we need to build on that. the president has submitted to the republican house of lepts two very important pieces of legislation a year ago. one was the jobs initiative which calls for a significant new investment in our infrastructure so that we can be competitive around the world. and also addressed the very high unemployment in the construction sector, and he submitted a bill to reduce the deficit in a balanced way throucombination o cuts but he's also been saying asking the highest income earners, people making millions of dollars to help contribute to the deficit reduction. if you ask nothing of them you hit everybody else harder. >> so a second term is about what though? fiscal issues? is it about job creation? >> it's about growing a strong long-term economy and job creation. so it's about immediately boosting jobs through things like revving up our investment in infrastructure, which we badly need. but also layings the long term foundation by getting our fiscal house in order through the long term through a balanced approach, the kind that says we have to tighten our belt but also asking folks at the very top to contribute more. >> you think it is a mistake the president doesn't sort of have a number out there? you can sit there and say mitt romney's just boasting of a number that all economists say is going to happen in the next four years, 12 million jobs. you think it is a mistake the president isn't sohorthanding s it can almost be on a bumper sticker? >> i don't. this is complicated. but the president has put forward a very clear plan. it's been sitting in front of the republican congress for more than a year. as you just pointed out, what mitt romney is projecting in 12 million jobs is efx actually what economists say will happen if we continue the current recovery. in other words, we are seeing continued job growth. we want to accelerate that job growth. mitt romney's picked a number that almost every economist out there projects we're going to get no matter what, based on some of the decisions, frankly, that the president has made and we're now beginning to see come to fruition. >> you're going to be on the front lines during the fiscal cliff negotiations right after the election. they'll be intensified depending on what the outcome of the election is. i want to get you to respond to something senator chuck schumer, a fellow democrat said, who's been actually critical of the bowles-simpson proposal. here's what he told me on monday. >> they made one big mistake. they used old-fashioned tax reform and they said the first thing we do on the revenue side is not find new revenues but lower taxes on the wealthiest people. you can't do it. the math doesn't add up. bowles-simpson made a mistake when they said that's where we start out. >> but they got more revenue out of it. >> they said they did. >> you don't believe they did. >> i still haven't seen the details. they said we'll cut the rate, then make up for it with tax expenditures. >> you've been supportive of the concept of bowles-simpson. do you believe, like schumer, it is impossible to cut rates and get more revenue out of tax reform? >> just to be clear, i support the framework of bowles-simpson which is the mix of revenue to cuts. i think the ratio is right. >> one of the theories of bowles-simpson is you bring down -- >> i think what chuck schumer is saying first of all of, that we need to start any negotiation at the rate that the taxes will go to for the wealthy under current law, which is start at 39%. that is the starting point. the president's been very clear. he's been talking about this throughout the debate, that we need to allow those rates to go back to where they were -- >> you believe in this -- >> if you start there, there are definitely things in the tax code that can be cleaned out. >> so you're open. >> i'm open to the notion of look offing to remove some of the stuff in the tax code. the difference is that republicans decide to pick the rate first. so mitt romney gets out there, says i'm going to cut the rate by 20% which we all know costs $5 trillion. then he says, oh, now we'll think of how we're going to get there. he puts everything on the table that helps middle class taxpayers like the mortgage interest deduction. the one thing mitt romney's taken off the table, can't touch -- capital gains preferences, things that help mitt romney. so it is really interesting, he wants to do tax reform. one thing he says you can't touch -- the stuff that helps people like him. >> i have to leave it there, democratic congressman chris van hollen. this will be a longer conversation after the election because you'll have to stay busy. new numbers show weekly jobless claims jumped up this week. plus, reviving the rust belt. could the energy boom be -- in ohio shall the deciding factor for the race for the white house? but first today's trivia question. which president also served under ten other u.s. presidents? not lived under. actually served. held political offices. appointments. et cetera. tweet me the answer. first correct answer gets a call thursday from us. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they help save you up to thousands in out-of-pocket costs. call today to request a free decision guide. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and you'll never need a referral to see a specialist. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. an energy boom in swing states like pennsylvania and ohio is putting a renewed focus on the rust belt this election cycle. they wrangled over energy policy at tuesday's debate. take a listen. >> governor, we have actual will you produced more oil -- >> no, no. how much did you cut licenses and permits on federal land and federal waters? >> governor romney, here's what we did. >>ly a question and the question was -- >> you want plea to answer a question. >> how much did you cut them by? >> i'm laep to answer the question. >> all right. and it is? >> cnbc's phil lebeau is in youngstown, ohio. part of the msnbc and cnbc special "invest in america." we've been talking about fracking, the energy boom in places like ohio. how impactful in youngstown? >> reporter: you come here and you really notice how much it is changing things. youngstown is a perfect example. last night the city council here voted into authorizing selling the mineral rights so that there could be oil and natural gas drilling on public property here in the city of youngstown. that's why we're in front of this abandoned house. they want to take the money they'd get from selling those mineral rights and royalties for whatever oil and natural gas is under youngstown property in order to pay for tearing down abandoned houses. that's just one example. you go throughout this state and what you see are a number of fracking wells. right now there's just under 100 here in the state of ohio but that's exploding in terms of how many we're going to see. by the end of next year, it will be at least 850. in terms of the jobs impact, chuck, we are looking at about 2,000 jobs that have been brought to ohio related to the fracking industry. there are some estimates that when you look well into the future, you're looking at 250,000 jobs that could be added in ohio, pennsylvania, this entire region. not just ohio, but the entire region as they tap in to the utica reserve. that's the big nat gas field that's under eastern ohio, southeastern ohio, as well as western pennsylvania. >> how is this going to like change the states? i've got visions in my head of what colorado and texas and oklahoma look like 30 years ago where you just drive along and you see wells pop up. is that what now things are going to look like when driving on the ohio and pennsylvania turnpikes? >> reporter: well, you don't see the wells. it's different wells than the ones we're used to seeing where you see the rig going up and down as you drive through rural texas or oklahoma. you don't see the fracking wells because they are pressurized. but clearly, you go to southeastern ohio, chuck, you really notice that there is a change. you see a ton of the oil and nat gas delivery trucks driving around. a lot of construction trucks. especially in those rural towns, this is having a huge impact and one last thing, chuck. that's also coal country. you drive around down there -- i know you've been down in that part of the state -- there's no shortage of signs that say stop the war on coal, fire obama. they're all over the place down there because that's the dynamic here as fracking grows, coal has fallen off in terms of the amount of use by utilities. >> there is going to be a concern that if coal goes away. phil lebeau, been a while. good to see you. cnbc and msnbc news will have special coverage all day long -- america's quest for energy independence in all of these new places. by the way, look how it merges with the presidential battleground map. unemployment benefit numbers that went down sharply last week jumped back up this week hitting their highest levels in four months. i'm sure somebody messed with numbers again. oh, my god -- who's messing with the numbers? this is crazy! >> every number we analyze and overanalyze every time around. this number is probably more of a return to normal. in fact, you should read this. this was a jump of 46,000 to 388,000. you should probably read it more as a jump of 15,000 to 20,000 for this most recent week because last week's numbers were an anomaly. we told you at the time that this was going to be a weird, volatile number. there were all kinds of rumors about one big state not reporting. what really happened is one big state last week didn't report the expected build in claims that you would normally see at the beginning of a quarter. that one state is maybe off a little. it is hard to guess exactly which one it is. by the way, the official -- a government official has been talking about how california was the only state in the week that ended on october 6th, last week's numbers, to report decrease in claims of more than 1,000. so it is probably that one but those numbers are back in. you can see 388,000. this is a volatile number, but so is that number that we get on a monthly number. the unemployment one. that's going to be the biggie, because that's the very last one before the election. i know that we've talked in the past about how it was probably the last one that's more important because early voting has already begun. but expectations -- at least the guesses out there at this point are you will see more volatility in the unemployment number for this very last one before the election as well. >> i hate to be a party popper on these unemployment numbers, but they haven't had an impact -- they have a media impact. we all cover it. but we have not seen any polling impact of the last three reports. it is literally -- it seems to have already been built in, if you will. >> my guess is most people look at it and figure, they know what the economy looks like from their perspective. >> they don't need a number. right. anyway, becky, thank you. up next, we're taking a deep dive into the nightmare scenario. the 269-269 electoral college tie that would make the florida recount feel like a walk in the park. we're going to show you just how likely it really is this time around. and who would really decide who was president and who was vice president of the united states. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds. on our radar this morning, is gaining ground in wisconsin. pre-second debate. the marquette poll, one of the good ones in wisconsin, finds the presidential race essentially tied. president obama up just a point, 49%-48%. a big change from their last poll where they had the president up 11. also worth noting this latest poll was conducted before the second presidential debate. by the way, the same poll has governor tommy thompson now ahead of democrat tamly baldwin but only by a point, 46%-545% fr that race in the open senate seat. we'll have new wisconsin and iowa numbers post-debate tonight. a new connecticut poll finds chris murphy and republican linda mcmahon essentially tied. that one's going to come down to the wire. meanwhile, paul ryan had some trouble yesterday when it came to talking sports. kind of a surprise, he is a big sports fan. first he refused to support his home state wisconsin badgers in their future game against ohio state. it was actually a hilarious little back and forth between matt lauer and paul ryan on that front. then later in the day, ryan confused the two cleveland brown quarterbacks while visiting their practice facility. unfortunately he was talking to one of them at the time. >> i'm a big college football fan, my wife's from oklahoma. we've been watching you, were you really fun to watch at osu. you guys got a great young team. >> here was the problem. ryan thought he was talking to quarterback brandon weeden, oklahoma state guy. he was pointing and stare rg at the back of quarterback colt mccoy. by the way, confusing colt mccoy, a texan, and former texas longhorn with anybody from the state of oklahoma does not go over well in some parts of austin. and now -- look at that. we got new graphics. it's one of those strange twists in the american political experiment that the electoral college decides the presidency and not your vote. not the popular vote. it is produced its share of controversial results. most recent, of course, george w. bush losing the popular vote but winning the white house in 2000. nevertheless, even if you're okay with the electoral college system, this system has a built-in flaw. the problem -- the number of electoral votes available, 538, meaning it is possible for two candidates to both reach 269 and not get a majority. that political time bomb has never actually gone off. but this year the chance that it could is higher than it's been in a while. in today's "deep dive," we'll start with a few scenarios demonstrating how we could get to that point. let me start with scenario number one. right now i'm just dealing with the battleground as we know it. if we give the president colorado, wisconsin, and virginia, and you give romney florida, north carolina, ohio, iowa, and nevada, and new hampshire, you get your 269. that's scenario one. you could argue with that saying, i don't see how all three of those states go there -- that's one of those, okay, fine. you don't like that one? i can give you another one. give the president colorado, wisconsin, and virginia. give mitt romney nevada, iowa, ohio -- whoops, i went blue there -- nevada, colorado -- excuse me. this is the beauty of live television. iowa, ohio, north carolina, new hampshire, and florida. come on, florida. there's scenario two. and then here's the one i think is the most likely scenario, if it does happen. it's wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire right now. and then romney -- everything else. florida, north carolina, virginia, iowa, colorado, nevada. that's the one that i think is most likely of the three. by the way, in case you are wondering, here's one plausible scenario that would include maine. as you know, see, we even have this nifty ability -- it is possible you could see maine split its electoral votes. the second congressional district there a little more rural. if that happens, then -- and the president -- and romney grabs one there and the president gets nevada, colorado, and ohio, there you have it. you get the rest -- iowa, wisconsin, florida, north carolina, virginia. there's your scary scenario. it is not good. if any of these scenarios actually occur -- the debate of the next president would be decided in a wonderful institution that america loves -- the united states congress. it's happened before. it was the election of 1800. party politics were brand-new and instead of voting for a ticket, each elector was allowed to catst two votes for presiden, being whoever came in second would be the vice president. that was a good idea. instead thomas jefferson and aaron burr, membebut ultimately house had to step in. they voted for jefferson to be our third president. uproar forced congress to confront that issue. in the summer of 1804 passed the 1 12th amendment that laid out new ground rules and an emergency plan in case of an electoral deadlock. if we are talking crazy legal issues, who else do we bring in my friend mr. pete williams. just as the number of available electoral votes creates problems, contingency plan congress put together has some interesting wrinkles as well. >> two ways to get here. one is the tie you've been talking about. the other is a potential problem known as faithless electors. who you are actually voting for when you go to the polls refuse to vote for who the state voted for for president. it's happened ten times in history -- >> but never cost somebody the majority of the electoral college. >> the 12th amendment says if you don't get to 270, then have you a contingent election. house would choose the president. with each state getting one vote. you'd need at least 26 votes to win. the senate would choose the vice president with each senator getting one vote so you would need at least 51 senators to win. let's carry the tie scenarios out one step further. if the house divided equally, 25-25, they just have to keep voting. >> let me stop through because i want to get to our more interesting possible scenario here. the way redistricting is done and all of this, it is very likely i think republicans will have at least 28, 29 state delegations. they will be in a majority of the house delegations. >> right. >> by the way, it is the new congress that would decide this. that's another thing we got to let people know. >> the new congress gets sworn in on january 3rd. electoral votes are counted this year, january 7th, on a monday. >> the united states senate. geez, the likelihood of a 50%-50% united states nsenate is -- >> if. the senate tied 50-50, then the sitting vice president -- you have a new congress but the sitting vice president, who is also the president of the senate -- >> joe biden -- >> -- would cast the deciding vote. >> we say this. there is no -- we weren't sure if this was possible. you said there would probably be an objection from a republican senator saying joe biden shouldn't be able to cast the tie vote on this specific vote. what would then happen? >> two answers to that. one is the constitution does say that whenever there's a tie vote in the senate, the president of the senate casts the tie vote. in essence the constitution answers the question. but if there was still a question about it, the senate parliamentarian would rule and then the senate would vote on that. and on that it would be clear the vice president could cast the deciding vote. >> i want to go back to the issue of faithless electors. my theory on this has been, if we do have a 269-269, we have this sort of potential constitutional crisis staring us in the face -- >> not a crisis, just the constitution in action. >> i know, i'm sorry. it feels like a crisis to me in this polarized environment, i don't think they can handle it. but maybe i'm underestimating the wisdom of the american public. under this scenario, then you would have -- when would we know if there was a faithless elector? we would actually not know until the vice president of the united states tears open those votes. is that correct? >> that's right. the way it works under the constitution and federal law is the electors meet the first monday after the second wednesday in december -- >> secret ballots are cast. >> that's right. they're all transmitted to the congress and they're counted in a joint session of congress and that's when you would find out if there's a faithless elector. ten times in history. most recent time was in 2000 when an elector from the district of columbia abstained instead of voting for al gore. >> had to do with protesting the entire election itself. >> that's right. by the way, one little -- >> hope we didn't lose people in this. >> no, it is fascinating. one little point here -- washington, d.c. gets three electoral votes. that's why there'selectoral votes. but d.c. does not get a role in these contingent elections. >> no vote in the senate and obviously no membership in the house so the delegation couldn't count. hey, congress, how about passing the request the in case of a tie, popular vote gets the extra electoral vote." pete williams, thank you for doing a bunch of legal research. >> i would love this, if it happened, by the way. >> of course you would. i love the recounts and all that. you want a constitutional -- excuse me, get "inaction." >> exactly. is minnesota suddenly mattering? i'll tell you why it might, maybe might not. but first, white house soup of the day -- the one the press corps loves the most, potato and leek. msnbc.com has great new posts breaking down the kinds of questions asked at the town hall debates all the way back to 1992. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. one. two. three. my credit card rewards are easy to rember. with the bankamericard cash rewards credit card, i earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ both ] 2% back on groceries. [ all ] 3% on gas! no hoops to jump through. i earn more cash back on the things i buy most. [ woman in pet store ] it's as easy as... [ all ] one! -two. -[ all ] three! [ male announcer ] the bankamericard cash rewards credit card. apply online or at a bank of america near you. oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. panel time. joining me now, msnbc contributor, maria kumar, and now senior advisor for the yg action fund, he's a part of spending a lot of money. >> no! >> hey, we're in television. our friends in affiliate land love this. chris booker, my political contact at the columbus station in ohio. >> making local tv stations happy since 2011. >> creating jobs. >> let me show you these numbers. throw everything up here. $58 million this week alone for the obama campaign, $20 million romney. $16.5 million. restore our future, $3.4 million. look, money, money, money. we know it's -- it is the enormous amount of point levels. >> so this is what i always struggle with. it is $58 million. you are talking about 3,000, 4,000, 5,000 points. >> $58 million this week total. the entire ad budgets for bush-gore in 2000 in the fall was less than $140 million. >> john mccain spent $92 million in the general election in 2008. here's what i wonder. with all this money, is it possible for even the best ad, in any way, shape or form, not only because there are so many ads running, it is not as though where is this money being spent -- ohio, virginia, florida -- these people have been subjected to political ads. i can tell you, living in virginia, this is months every ad -- literally every ad is a political ad. >> you work for a group -- both of you, brad and maria, are working for groups that you are trying to break through with a small amount of money in comparison.comparison. have you come -- do you have a magic formula? >> no, i think what these ads are trying to do, one, it's trying to bring up the base. at the same time, what you're seeing is it turns off voters. it turns off potential obama voters. >> i don't buy that. >> but where you end up winning, because people are so saturated is you end up winning by doing the door to door old-fashioned grassroots door knocking. you start looking at minority communities. talking to individuals saying we care about your vote changes the equation. >> i'm skeptical. people wouldn't waste money. i just don't believe the campaign would be wasting money. it's clearly not viewed as a waste of money. >> it comes back to what it is you're selling. you can be in any household in america and when a political ad comes on, you hear, i wish this was over. but an effective ad cuts through. we went up right after labor day with an ad highlighting some ethical problems and it cut through. he's no long aeroviable alternative. >> i think the difference between the 2008 ads and the ones today is it's not just the campaigns. the super pacs were created to be nasty. >> one thing wanted to bring up, minnesota. we've noticed a pop. there's a super pac, american future fund, they've been running a decent amount of money spending over $300,000 in that state. they're not competing against anybody. the obama campaign just put up a little radio money and all this stuff. now the obama campaign, they saw what we wrote and said, no, no, no, this is about wisconsin and iowa. >> it may well be. i think it's probably also about you just don't want to take anything for granted at this point. $84,000 to the obama ad budget is my salary to the chuck todd salary. it's just not -- >> all right. let me sneak in the quick break, and we'll get more after this. which president also served under ten other u.s. presidents? the answer, of course, was someone from the beginning. john q. adams. look at this list. a foreign minister under three president. monroe, a secretary of state. after the white house, he served in the house under five presidents who succeeded him. remember the early part of the 19th century? we never had two-term presidents. we'll be right back. ouble. but, dad, you've got... 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[ male announcer ] you're welcome. that's the cold truth! all right. i got to sneak in shameless plugs here a little bit. first, i want to ask you quickly, house race. eric cantor. is he in serious trouble? is that bogus? >> completely bogus. >> over/under 60? >> over. i'm bullish. >> all right. now i'm going to go to shameless plugs. maria, go. >> i think right now we're looking at the closest election. i think the latino vote is going to come out strong. >> enthusiasm issue. is it going to catch up? a problem for obama? >> if anything, it's the door to door knocking we're seeing that people are saying, oh, you actually care. >> do you believe nevada demographically impossible for romney to win? >> demographically impossible for him to win. >> that's what i keep hearing. >> i will go with truly shameless and say my mother's birthday is tomorrow. happy birthday. i'm her won and only son. if i forgot, i'd be in real trouble. >> happy birthday to mary elle listen elizabeth. a good friend of mine major tom kennedy was killed in afghanistan by a suicide bomber. we set up a charity. it's called kennedy's angels. we've raised over $400,000. it's a great cause. >> okay. thank you to our shortened panel here. tomorrow on the show, we're going to have the brand new battleground polls for you. the midwestern test. coming up next, chris jansing. bye-bye. mom? who's mom? i'm the giants mascot. the giants don't have a mascot! ohhh! eat up! new jammin jerk chicken soup has tasty pieces of chicken with rice and beans. hmmm. for giant hunger! thanks mom! see ya! whoaa...oops! mom? i'm ok. grandma? hi sweetie! she operates the head. 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