i guess the republican electorate? but how do you think about that as it relates to the electorate writ large in november? >> well, a couple of things. one is he clearly has a locked in base of support, right? and he said it himself. he could shoot someone and not lose any support. and it's true, right? it only energizes his base of support. what i will say is when the horse race number is wrong it's usually because the pollster has predicted the wrong universe and it all depends on what universe turns out. and as you pointed out there, you're talking about such a narrow swath of voters anyway, a high point for republicans i think was 187,000 votes. so you're talking about such a narrow swath, a narrow universe of voters to start with. and you've got -- and you've got sort of terrible conditions there. so it's about who turns out. and this is where polling gets tricky and where polling can be off. these are horse race numbers, which i think we spend too much