5 days to go. with the fiscal cliff hanging in the distance, how the focus of the discussion is starting to shift. in today's cover story, the housing market is gaining momentum. what first-time buyers need to know about getting in the game. plus, the grinch who stole sales. why holiday shopping took a hit this year. and, movie madness. ticket sales are on track for a record year. our critic tells us what's worth your watch. that's all ahead on today's first business. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning everyone. it's thursday, december 27th. i'm chuck coppola. angela miles has the day off. in today's first look: a massive storm hits the northeast - again. this time with an icy slap of snow, freezing rain and strong winds. it already took its toll on the southern plains and deep south. creative acccounting at the federal level. with the u.s. expected to reach its $16.4- trillion debt ceiling before the end of the year, the treasury department will undertake acccounting manuvers to create $200 billion in what treasury secretary timothy giethner calls "headroom." call it, "in your facebook." an instagram user has filed what could become a class-action lawsuit over a policy change that would allow instagram to sell ads using a person's name or photo published on the website. instagram announced it would backtrack on the idea, but eventually wants to come back to users and explain its intentions. the u.s. government may expand its mortgage refinancing program to include borrowers not backed by fannie mae and freddie mac and also include borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth - about 22% of all homes with a mortgage. from department stores to bookshops to jewelry sellers, a lot of retail stocks are dragging around their empty boxes and gift wrap post- christmas. mark sebastian of option pit joins us. mark, welcome, and what happened to these retail stocks? > > it is just kind of a cacophony of bad things. we have got this fiscal cliff looming, which is scaring retail purchasers, and we have just terrible weather out east, both before and after christmas. this storm is going to be terrible, and superstorm sandy had to have depressed sales if you consider what kind of damage was done to new york and new jersey. > i was reading about that. the mid-atlantic and northeast account for 24% of all retail sales in the u.s. that is a huge chunk of sales. > > absolutely huge, and that is going to put a big impact on sales. if you are spending your money getting your house fixed up and waiting for the insurance company to pay you back, that is absolutely going to affect retail sales. > i was looking at some of the companies out there: urban outfitters, tiffany's, macy's, wal-mart, target, all down. did they not see this coming? were they too optimistic? > > i think the fiscal cliff made a much bigger difference than people realize. if the average consumer is looking at somewhere between a $500 and $2500 increase in taxes next year, it is going to change their behavior, just like it changed company behaviors when you saw them accelerate their dividends. so, when the government goes and changes behavior, it is going to affect things like retail sales. > quickly mark, the oil market. how is it being affected? > > we saw a kind of terrorist thing go on in the united arab emirates, and that is what drove up oil today. however, i think that's a short-lived rally. with oil above $90, i think it is a short here. you have fewer people driving, fewer people spending. that is bad for oil. > very good. mark sebastian of option pit. thanks very much. thank you. paul eggers joins us in the studio today. paul? thanks chuck. good to be here. meantime in washington, though tax rates on the really rich may be getting all the attention, if there is no fix to an obscure corner of the tax code, millions of middle class americans will pay thousands more to uncle sam. the alternative minimum tax, or amt, is typically paid by just 4 million americans, but no action in washington would mean an additional 30 million americans would fall under the provision. affected households would then have to pay $3700 more in taxes this year. cutting this deadline close has practically become an annual holiday tradition for congress the past few years. 'back in 2010, they passed the amt patch on christmas eve. in 2008/2009, they actually passed it in january and set it retroactively. uncertainty surrounding the amt has the internal revenue service on its toes. the tax agency has warned congress that if no new policy is passed, the irs will need to reprogram its computers, forcing a delay in filings and tax refunds until march of 2013. president obama and members of congress are set to return for one day more of talks to avert spending cuts at the same time tax cuts expire. one alternative being floated - congress may let income taxes go up on everyone one tick past the stroke of midnight, then quickly vote to decrease tax rates for most americans back to 2012 levels. meanwhile, starbucks ceo howard schultz wants his employees to send a message and scrall, "come together," on cups for drink orders in the d.c. area. it's the first time employees have been asked to write anything other than customers' names on cups. former members of a regulatory agency are walking the well worn path from washington to wall street. since june, 9 members of the commodity futures trading commission have taken jobs at financial firms including jpmorgan chase and japanese investment bank nomura, according to the wall street journal. members of the cftc have been making the transition to help firms intepret changes under the dodd- frank reforms passed in 2010. critics of this revolving door contend ex-staffers can use personal connections to pressure regulators into developing more favorable rules for their new employers. the housing market continues to show signs of stabilization. that's according to the latest case-shiller home price index, which reports housing prices slid in october but are up from the same time last year. october home prices slid 0.1% in the 10 biggest metro areas. however, prices were up 4.3% from the same time last year. new york and chicago were the only cities where prices took a drop from last year. however, markets that had been struggling to regain strength are now showing signs of life, including phoenix, where prices are up for the 13th straight month. that relative strength in home prices and continued low interest rates may bring more home buyers back into real estate in 2013. but even with sales of new and existing homes showing a spike, don't expect a big housing boom like the one we saw just a few years ago. maurizio fiori is hoping to buy a home in 2013. he's looking to move his growing family out of their chicago apartment and into their very own home. 'i've been scouring the internet, and talking to agents and mls and all the sites almost daily.' a former trader, fiori holds stakes in a diversified portfolio of successful small businesses, including a wine importing company and a craft brewer. in 2006, before the worst of the financial crisis hit, many banks would have been bending over backwards to lend him lots of money at exotic terms. today, even though he's willing to put up 30-40% of his cash on a down payment, bankers aren't exactly lining up to lend to him - or to anyone else for that matter. 'basically, the only good candidates for a loan are people who do not need a loan to begin with.' 'well, unfortunately things have gotten a little tighter in mortgage lending.' in his work helping homebuyers find financing, michael mcauliffe has seen the mortgage process change dramatically the past few years. gone are the loose lending requirements and lax regulations of 2006. today, it is all about tougher standards and more serious oversight of every loan. 'banks made a big mistake giving out all those loans, and regulators probably weren't looking as closely as they should have been. so, now they're both making sure that the finger doesn't get pointed at them again.' to get that loan in the new year, mcauliffe says be honest about what you can afford, save for a large down payment, and don't count on that loan until all the papers are signed. 'the big thing is, don't do anything to negatively affect that credit score. they're going to check your job that day, they're going to put your credit that day. in fact, they're going to look at the appraisal to make sure it all makes sense to them. fiori remains hopeful that even in this tight-money environment, financing will ultimately come his way in the new year. mcauliffe adds that while mortgage rates have remained below 4% for some time, he sees them climbing higher throughout 2013. retailers had hoped the extra weekend before christmas would help them recoup from the nearly three-week trough in sales that followed black friday weekend. in the end, it wasn't enough, and it resulted in the worst year-to-year drop in sales since 2008. "fiscal cliff talk and unwillingness to empty wallets completely in this uncertainty was what happened." "retailers could learn from this by putting more items on sale during the lull to keep shoppers in stores." the late october superstorm had lingering effects. sales across the mid-atlantic states dropped 3.9% from a year ago and 1.4% in the northeast. those two regions alone account for nearly a quarter of all retail sales in the u.s. seven-eleven, which has embraced hot dogs on rollers and breakfast sandwhiches under heat lamps, is trying to going healthy. tired of customers buying beer and cigarettes, the conventience store chain has become calorie-conscious and offers an under-400-calorie snack pack of flatbread, cheese, grapes, baby carrots and hummus. by 2015, the chain wants 20% of its sales come from fresh foods. tech giants are pouncing on the chance to buy patents from eastman-kodak. apple, google, and research in motion are some of the big names that will buy patents from the bankrupt camera and photo company. the deal, worth $525 million, will give those companies access to kodak's digital imaging patents. after the sale, kodak says it expects to emerge from bankruptcy protection within the first half of next year. critics are blaming ceos for some of the biggest business blunders of this year. forbes is out with its list of "worst ceos" in 2012. best buy, zynga, and jc penney are just a few companies whose corporate chiefs were blamed for falling stock prices and lower sales. big banks also had a fair share of embarassing moments throughout the course of the year. barclays and hsbc both lost ceos after an investigation revealed the banks had manipulated libor, a benchmark interest rate, for the benefit of their firms. still to come, how counterfeit wine may be sneaking its way into your glass. that's later. but first, will the box office hit the billion-dollar record? what movies could stand in the way, after these "in the know" messages. wñ this just could be a record- breaking year at the box office. with just a handful of days left, the 2009 record of more than $10.5 billion spent at the movies is within reach. with us is erik childress of the chicago film critics' assoc. hi erik. > > hello. > so, what did everyone see last weekend? > > last weekend you had a bunch of new openings come up. you had tom cruise's latest film, "jack reacher," did only about $15.6 million. one of his lesser openings for the better part of his career. judd apatow's "this is 40" made it $12 million. but everyone was still seeing "the hobbit," which, even though the number was down, was still very handily at number one. > and "the guilt trip." how did that do? > > not very well at all. only about $7.5 million over five days - it opened last wednesday. so that is a very disappointing number. > so why are we so close to this record? > > we are very close to the record because we had a lot of event films this year. we had beginnings with "the avengers," we had endings with "the dark knight rises," and "twilight." "skyfall," the new james bond film, was kind of a little bit of both, actually. so we had a lot of big titles come out, and most of them turned out to be very good. so people were going back and back in record numbers. "the avengers," "dark knight," two of the 10 most successful films of all time. > interesting. all right, what about christmas? that is always a big time for movies to come out. what opened? > > we had "les mis," the adaptation of the broadway musical. it opened to about $18 million. the second-highest christmas day opening of all time behind "sherlock holmes," which actually opened on a friday christmas a few years back, so, that actually makes the numbers even more impressive. and quentin tarantino's "django unchained" did about $15 million, which is the third highest christmas day opening ever. so people clearly went out and were very interested in these two movies. > very cool. "les mis" is one of the most beloved musicals out there. how are fans of the musical going to like this film adaptation? > > i think they are going to be very pleased with the adaptation. it is a very good film. people who are just general fans of the play i think are going to be very happy with the presentation of it, the actors, and the singing. anne hathaway is going to win the oscar for best supporting actress, i think that train has already left the station. > very cool. one other thing i should note, i saw it, and i appreciated being able to follow the story a lot better in the film version, and also the lyrics, i could understand the lyrics a little bit better than in a theater. > > tom hooper kind of plays the film almost more like an opera more than sort of a musical, there are not a lot of big dance numbers and camera movements. the anne hathaway number that everyone is talking about, it's just a camera right on her face, and just letting her do the numbers, and that i think is very successful. > that's the beauty of film. you get those closeups. you don't get that on the stage. > > absolutely not. > what about "django unchained?" > > "django unchained" is a very entertaining quentin tarantino film, sort of a spaghetti western meets blaxploitation film. a western that i think adult males are really going to have a lot of fun with, probably up until when "zero dark thirty" comes out next month, kathryn bigelow's film about osama bin laden. so the ladies can go see "les mis," and the guys can go see "django" > guys love quentin tarantino movies. it's just one of those guilty pleasures. > > it's more than a guilty pleasure. the guy makes great movies. he really does. > very good. erik childress of the chicago film critics' assoc. thanks so much. > > thank you. still ahead, counterfeit wine is seeping into the market. what to know before you uncork. that's next. wine and holidays seem to go together very, very naturally. but there is a grinch this year, and it has been in the form of a counterfeit ring that has been preying upon investors. with us to explain and go into this subject is craig perman. he runs perman wine selections here in chicago. greg, welcome. > > thank you. > so, tell us about this counterfeit ring that is going on and the threat it is for someone who wants to collect and invest in wine. > > what happened was on some of these small-production, high- end cult wines, there was one, in particular, ring that you mentioned that was selling wine to collectors that was fake wine, counterfeit wine. and so, there has been a huge reaction in our market, and certainly there are a lot of collectors that have taken a step back and wondered, who am i dealing with, and how do i brought this from happening in the future? and i think the one way to really do that is to first always make sure you are buying from a trusted source. the first thing you should do is go to an auction, look at what is being sold. those are kind of the focus wines. so first growth bordeaux, some california cults, some of the big names from certain regions like burgundy or barolo, those are the things that you should focus on. > returns of about 12 to 14% from what i've been reading. is that accurate? > > it can be. it is really a guessing- > it's annual, too. > > it is really a guessing game. because if you told me in 2000, with first growth bordeaux, we saw them coming out at $300, $400 a bottle, and we were like, "oh, that's crazy. " then we get to 2005 and now we're at $500, $600 a bottle upon release, and we're like, "oh, that's nuts, it's never going to go more than that." and now here we are in 2009, and we are seeing prices come out at $1,000 a bottle. so, it is hard to predict, because each time you see that, the reaction is, "there's no way it can go any higher," but the reality is, it probably will. > > how little can you get into it? realistically. > realistically, you really have to- if you are really going to look at it as a true investment, you really have to go in and start being very careful and buying some more high-end things. we are talking wines that are $500 a bottle upon release, $1,000 a bottle upon release, and you're going to want to buy full cases, whether that be a six-pack case or a 12-pack case. so, you are looking a lot of times at a minimum investment of $6,000 to $12,000 for a case. it is not an easy thing to get into unless you really kind of have the capital to do so. > terrific. very good advice. thank you so much craig perman from perman wine selections. stay tuned, chart talk is next. volatility was a big deal in 2011. in 2012, not so much - until now. dan deming of stutland equities joins us this morning for chart talk. hi dan. what's happening with the vix? > > hey chuck. you are certainly seeing some strength there, some concerns as we roll toward the end of the year with no deal out of washington. you are seeing some vol buyers enter the market on a daily basis now. even though we have seen the market down the last five days after reaching a peak in the s&p of 1447. it is not down significantly, yet we are still seeing pretty active vol buyers, and you are seeing the vix up around that 19.5 level - it has not been there since july of this year. > we also had a quadruple witching day which has now passed. i expect that probably factored in a little bit. but do you expect less volatility now? > > actually it is hard to say. i think there are still going to be concerns as we roll in toward the beginning of the year. if there is no deal, i think you are going to continue to see vol buyers into january, because the expectations are the s&p could slip significantly if nothing gets done. we are trending right now back down toward that 50-day moving average, chuck, which is around 1413, with the s&p right now about 1419. so, not too far away from there. so that is something we are keeping a close eye on. i think if we break through there, you would see a lower high in this pattern, and that potentially could lead to higher volatility expectations. > dan, what about the s&p 500? eight out of 10 groups in the s&p fell, including apple. > > exactly. you are seeing apple push back down now toward those lows that it saw just a couple weeks ago, like $501 i think was the intra-day low. so you are seeing apple under pressure as we roll into the end of the year. really kind of an unusual end of the year with this fiscal cliff situation hanging over the marketplace. you are seen vol expectations increasing as we go to the end of the year. that is atypical. and you are seeing the market, like i said, kind of under a little bit of pressure here and pushing down toward some critical technical levels as we kind of roll into next year. > all right dan, thanks so much for the update. dan deming of stutland equities. > > thanks chuck. that's all we have time for today. be sure to meet us back here tomorrow. we'll get a look at some of the biggest technologies that are likely to have an impact on our lives in the near future. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching. . we are learning new details about an officer involved shooting, this shooting happened about an hour and a half ago. and another round of powerful storms pounds away at the east coast, the ripple affect it could have on the travelers here in the bay area. it is all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning ws

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