Transcripts For KQED PBS NewsHour 20140204

Tonights pbs newshour. Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by ive been around long enough to recognize the people who are out there owning it. The ones getting involved, staying engaged. They are not afraid to question the path theyre on. Because the one question they never want to ask is, how did i end up here . I started schwab with those people. People who want to take ownership of their investments, like they do in every other aspect of their lives. And the william and flora hewlett foundation, helping people build immeasurably better lives. And with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. And. This program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. And by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Woodruff a new report on economic effects of the president S Health Care law struck sparks today. The Congressional Budget Office projected as many as 2. 3 million workers will reduce their hours or drop out of the work force by 2021 as they gain Health Insurance. Jason furman chairs the president s council of economic advisers. Even if the net result of this is a net reduction in labor supply, to the degree its because of peoples choices, well think about it differently than if businesses are cutting jobs. This is not businesses cutting back on jobs, this is people having new choices they didnt use to have. Woodruff furman also argued the report does not take into account a number of economic benefits of the law. But republicans, including Senate Minority leader mitch mcconnell, said in fact, the new estimate proves the law is indeed a job killer. The cbo report is certainly not pretty if youre interested in creating jobs in america. As we all know, they estimate up to two million fewer jobs will be created as a result of obamacare. Honestly, its not a surprising report. All the anecdotes you hear all across the country are that premiums are going up and jobs are being lost. Woodruff the report also lowers the estimate of how many uninsured people will gain coverage this year by 2 million. It blames the early troubles of the governments website, healthcare dot gov. Well explore all of the numbers further, right after the news summary. Separately, the c. B. O now says this years federal budget deficit will drop to 514 billion. Thats down sharply from last year, and is the lowest since president obama took office. The agency attributes the decline to rising tax revenues from the economic recovery, plus reductions in federal spending. Woodruff wall street had some improved numbers of its own today, after mondays big losses. The Dow Jones Industrial average gained 72 points to close at 15,445. The nasdaq rose 34 points to close at 4,031. Woodruff a new, fiveyear farm bill has won final approval in the senate, after more than two years of wrangling. The ultimate compromise will cost 956 billion. It keeps most crop subsidies intact, but cuts 800 Million Dollars a year from food stamps, about 1 . Many republicans had wanted deeper cuts in both areas. Officials and activists from West Virginia are stepping up the pressure for more information on last months chemical spill. They took their frustration today to a Senate Hearing on the spill that tainted the water supply of 300,000 people. West virginias secretary of state, natalie tennant, said people dont know what to believe. First we hear its 7,500 gallons then we hear its 10,000 gallons. One day were told the water is safe, the next day we hear that pregnant women should not drink it. It doesnt add up. Either its safe or its not safe. Quite frankly people are fed up they are angry and they are scared. I have families telling me they are melting snow just to be able to give their children baths. Woodruff democratic and republican senators alike are backing a bill to require inspections every three years at chemical plants that can threaten public water systems. A federal judge in virginia heard arguments today on whether to overturn the states ban on gay marriage. Voters approved it, in 2006, as an amendment to the state constitution. But two samesex couples brought suit, saying the ban violates their rights under the u. S. Constitution. Virginias democratic attorney general mark herring announced last month he would not defend the ban. In afghanistan, the office of President Hamid karzai confirms he has held secret talks with taliban officials in a bid to make peace. That disclosure comes as relations between karzai and the u. S. Have been strained since he refused to sign a Security Agreement. Well delve into what karzai is doing, and why, later in the program. Microsoft has reached within its ranks for a new c. E. O. Satya nadella has been in charge of the Software Giants Cloud Computing business. With todays announcement, he replaces Steve Ballmer who announced last august that hed be leaving the company. In addition, microsoft founder bill gates is stepping down as chairman, but hell serve as a technology adviser. Still to come on the newshour a forecast that the Affordable Care act will cost jobs; whats behind the recent market jitters; the new push to get teens not to smoke; using playtime as a tool for learning; afghan president karzais secret talks with the taliban; plus, ahead of the olympics, confronting russias stance on gay rights. Ifill the Congressional Budget Offices assessment of the economic fallout from the Affordable Care act reignited partisan debate today. The new report focused on the impact the law could have on the labor force, specifically, how it could lead to fewer fulltime workers over the next decade. Julie rovner of n. P. R. Has been covering what was in the analysis, and the reaction all around. Reaction by the republicans, julie, is that this is a job killer. The reaction from the democrats was this was good news. Which is it . Well, i think it was probably neither of those things. The c. B. O. Was very careful in its analysis. Basically what it said was a little more of what it said when it first analyzed the act in 2010 which is that this is the inevitable consequence of when you give people help in buying Health Insurance that youre going to deter work out put. Now, we should point out this is not employers cutting back on workers they hire, this is people not working, either voluntarily dropping out of the work force or cutting back in the number of hours they work. Pelley theres a distinction to be drawn between this affecting job supply and worker supply. This is on the supplyside not the demand side. The c. B. O. Said the estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labors workers choose to supply rather flan a net drop in businesses demand for labor. So these are fewer workers in the work force, not fewer businesses hiring. Ifill the white house was emphasizing that word choose by the way, repeatedly today. So they said its mostly going to be lowwage jobs, lowwage worker who will be affected by this. Why thats right. Because low wage workers are getting hope the buy their Health Insurance so for them every extra hour they work costs them more because if they work more they will be at risk of losing the subsidy or if theyre getting medicaid they would be at risk of losing the medicaid if they earn that much more so they are more sensitive to working more and therefore losing that benefit. Ifill in youre an older worker it provides an incentive to retire sooner . Thats correct. And these were things that were anticipated when the law was passed. Ifill so none of this was an unanticipated or unintended consequence of the law . This is something people saw . Thats right. If youre going to give people money to help them buy Health Insurance youre going to assume these things will happen. As the administration said today, if you took away medicare and Social Security youd have more 95yearolds in the work force, too, they would have to work because they dont have benefits. That might not be what you want but that would happen. Pelley in this report it talks about Health Care Costs as well. Do we have any evidence that the cost of health care is declining what we do know is that the rise in Health Care Spending is lowing. What we dont know is whether its because of the Affordable Care act. Theres a very lively debate among health care economists as to the impact that the law is having. The c. B. O. Very carefully said we dont know, either. So theyre not going to say. Ifill theres also a debate about whether the a. C. A. Is more expensive than originally anticipated. Do we know the answer to that . One thing thatty t head of the c. B. O. Said is that there is no evidence that when they first estimated how much the bill would cost they said that it would reduce deficits because the things that are in the law that raise money are greater than the things that are in the law that spend money, that everything that they have reestimated, nothing has changed that. So this law is still anticipated to reduce the federal deficit over these ten years and i guess the years that follow that. Its not yet spending more than it takes in. Ifill now, every week or so the department of health and human services, someone comes out and says this is the number of people who have registered with the Affordable Care act. Because of the botched rollout, is that number less than what was expected . Well, right now theyre at about the last time they told us it was about three million and they had been aiming for seven million, which was the seven million estimated by the c. B. O. Now the c. B. O. Has rolled that back to six million. Thats just how much they estimate. Theyre also estimating a million fewer on medicaid, it will be eight million instead of nine million. Ifill by when . By the end of this year. However the c. B. O. Is also estimating that those numbers will catch up in future years that even though this year rather than getting seven Million People signed up in the exchange there is will only be six million in 2015 and 2016 theyll catch up to their estimates for those years. Ifill so its not a completely its a mixed bag about whether this is expected or not. One other things which interesting which was referred to in this report today is the risk corridors which explain, first of all, what they are and how what this report says is happening. These are payments made to Insurance Companies from the federal government in case they get too many sick people but if a particular plan gets too many sick people and they dont have enough premiums to cover their expenses these are safety valves, if you will, for the Insurance Companies. Republicans have been talking about repealing some of those because theyre ifill they called it an Insurance Company bailout. Exactly. That would have the impact of probably raising premiumss. However, the c. B. O. Said that, in fact, there will be more money coming from the Insurance Companies to the federal government rather than the other way around so it will raise 8 billion for the federal government. So if republicans want to repeal that, they have to find 8 billion to help pay for that. That could be a problem. Pelley julie rovner, npr. Thank you. Thank you. Woodruff its been a rough couple of weeks for some overseas Financial Markets. That was true again overnight in europe and asia where stocks finished lower. The volatility of late has brought fresh concerns about whats happening in the Global Economy and the connections with the u. S. Jeffrey brown explores whats behind the jitters and its ripple effects. Brown much of the concern surrounds emerging markets in countries that are now nicknamed the fragile five turkey, india, brazil, south africa and indonesia. For its part, the Dow Jones Industrial average is nearing a socalled correction, a drop of 10 . We look at whats happening with eswar prasad is an economics professor at cornell university, a senior fellow at the brookings institution, and author of the new book, the dollar trap how the u. S. Dollar tightened its grip on global finance. And andliz ann sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab company. For the record, Charles Schwab is one of the newshours funders. Eswar prasad, let me begin with you and lets talk about the emerging market concerns. These have been areas of major growth for some time so generally speaking, whats going on with them . Emerging markets are facing two hits right now first of all, the chinese economy which is a very important trading partner for many of the emerging markets looks like its going down but more importantly the prospect of monitoring, tightening in the u. S. Which could lead to an increase in Interest Rates in the u. S. Is causing investors worldwide to start thinking about whether they want to leave their money in the emerging market which is look a little riskier and which have uncertain prospects. And this is laying on the ability of the emerging markets and the economies you mention have a Common Thread running through them. They have large current account deficits which means they rely on foreign capital to finance some of their domestic consumption and investment, many of them have budget deficits that are quite large and most of them have political turmoil which means they are unable to take the response necessary to put their economies back on the right track. So the confluence of a lot of bad things happening at the same time. Brown liz ann sonders, pick up a little bit on that on that tie to the u. S. , to the fed in particular. Whats the connection . Well, we saw it last start last summer when the fed started to hint they would taper their quantitative easing purchases. What happened prior to that is so much of this liquidity had gone to chase yields, higher yields anywhere in the world. So you saw a lot of money go into emerging market, the currency markets, the bond markets and the equity markets and the fear the fed was pulling the punch bowl away started to unwide these trades. That set us up to not do anything in september and of course they not only hinted but started tapering so you saw a resurgence of the unwinding of what they sometimes call this carry trades. And thats really what youre seeing. So the infection is in the Financial Markets than i think it is at least yet economic contagion into the u. S. Well, let me ask eswar first about the economic fallout in these countries before we get back to the u. S. Were talking about markets, were talking about currencies. Are we seeing their impact on the streets in these countries . Its not as bad as in the Asian Financial crisis in 18998 98 for instance. Those emerging markets have, in fact, learned their lessons. They have more Flexible Exchange which is means theyre not trying to affect the particular level of the currency. They dont have as much external as they used to have a couple decades ago and they have a lot more protection from financial crises. But it is still a very rough road ahold for these emerging markets because foreign capital has stopped coming in and its coming in as the same quantities as before which means they have to tighten up their own domestic policies, especially budget policies or they have to reduce their domestic consumption around investment. At the same time they have emerging markets that continue with high inflation and other problems domestically. So they need to fix a lot before they can get their economies back on the growth trajectory. Brown liz ann sonders, given that, what are the prospects for what we call contagion. All of whats happening there bouncing back to us and getting even worse . I think somewhat limited, at least into the broader economy. Theres no question that there are ripple effects and there is some fear that we are potentially seeing a repeat of the late 1990s, although i would agree differences are important. Notefully difference between pegged Exchange Rates and Flexible Exchange rates so i dont think we have that type of scenario. But margin debt recently hit in an absolute sense an alltime high. So the contagion sometimes happens when a lot of investors who are starting to lose money in many of these Asset Classes get margin calls, they have to sell other assets. So thats where the contagion tends to come into play. I think its the shortlived situation. I think we might be somewhat limited in terms of the correction were going to see. It may have a little bit more to go, but i dont think the bull market is over. But theres a lot of concern that there may be some dead bodies buried kind of like longterm capital in the late 1990s. And until we settle some of those questions we probably is v some more volatility. Brown dead bodies buried in terms of bad investments around the world. What about the u. S. Economy . How whats the interplay now, liz ann sonders, starting with you, as you look at the potential for a correction . Well, a little bit of a double whammy for the markets, the u. S. Markets anyways in the fact that some of the recent Economic Data has been fairly weak. So that a month ago we got a very, very weak jobs number. On the surface, anyway, it seemed it was highly weather related. The problem is the weather hasnt improved so we have another jobs report coming out later this week and if its weak again, even if its cited as weather being one of the problems, thats still going to send some ripples. We had the i. S. M. Manufacturing number come out that was quite a bit weaker than expected, also with weather as one of the reasons cited. So we have some nearterm angst. Were dealing with uncertainty regarding the economy and as far as the weather is concerned speaking from somebody in the northeast were not going to get an answer for some time as to how much of an impact weather has had. Brown and eswar prasad, as you watch the world, and especially these emerging economize that were talking about it seems like everyday theres a different story about a different one of them and they are very specific issues, of course. But are there one two that youre most focused on to help you and maybe help us think about where were headed . Turkey and energy that are the most volatile cases because they have enormous political problems. But in addition they have fairly significant current account deficits so they rely on a lot of foreign capital. Other countries like india and brazil are also facing tremendous domestic tensions because they have very high inflation which means the Central Banks need to tighten monetary policy, increase Interest Rates in order to fight inflation but that reduces domestic activity. So ultimately its going to be a very difficult balancing act for these economies and for the u. S. Its going to be a mixed blessing. On the one hand it means more money coming to the antitrust serge of safety but on the other hand the emerging markets have been a very important part of the world economy. Were talking about 40 of world g. D. P. So lack of demand is not good for the u. S. And if the dollar remains stronger than it ought to be otherwise, thats going to mean less job growth, less exports to the u. S. And right now when the economy is weak every little bit helps and this is going to hurt. Brown liz ann sonders, just in our last 30 seconds, so much of this is about big traders, of course, in the markets. What about regular old investors at a time like this . Whats the advice . Well, the potential good news if you want to call it that is that a lot of individual investors have largely stayed out of this market. Theyve been very skeptical over the last five years. So i dont think o. A. U. ve had the mass influx that you might expect give than were in a five year bull market. I do think more of the activity youre seeing is coming from the institutional side, less so on the individual investor side. I think ultimately this is a buyable correction, if you want to call it that. So i think well ultimately be okay but its going to be rough for the near term. Brown liz ann sonders, eswar prasad, thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Woodruff tarnished teeth, prematurely wrinkled skin on teenage faces, and students subjected to bullying. Those are the images of a new multimedia antismoking campaign being launched by the food and drug administration. Its a 115 Million Campaign that will run in 200 markets over the course of a year, beginning next week. The goal use ads like these to get through to younger americans about the personal costs of cigarettes. Kathy crosby is the director of Health Communication and education at the f. D. A. s center for Tobacco Products, making her a point person on this campaign. She joins me now. Welcome to the program. Thanks so much for having me. Woodruff so these ads are designed to get to these teenage herbs, different from ads that have run before how . Well, we did comprehensive research to understand what would really make a difference to these at risk teens and through the evaluation of the research we understood that there were certain message platforms that spoke really personally to these kids. One is the motion of loss of control and one is the understanding that there are health costs associated with every single cigarette but not necessarily the ones that you think of from a longterm standpoint like death or emphysema. The kids who are most at risk for smoking dont consider themselves to be smokers. They dont ever believe theyll be addicted and even if they think theyre addicted they think they can quit at any time. So we had to focus in on Health Consequences that we knew could get to them more in the short term. Pelley lets look at one of the ads the f. D. A. Is running. Well show this right now. Hey, buddy lets take a little walk when i say go outside, we go outside when i say fork it over, you fork it over hey, when i say pause the movie, we pause the movie. So long, big boy. Pucker up cigarettes are bullies. Dont let Tobacco Control you. Pelley you mentioned loss of control. Thats what thats about. It is and its very important to these youth because theyre just starting to experience control in their life and the last thing they want to do is think an unhealthy relationship in this case nicotine addiction could take that control away from them and we know these adds through the research have been found to be very powerful. Pelley youre also running ads and we showed one before about this was a photograph of teeth. Youre showing a model with perfectly white teeth and then another picture of the same young woman wpl very yellow almost brownish teeth. Yes. Were really focusing on some of the consequences that matter. Not that obviously the more serious ones dont, but when you think about the notion of your appeal, that you could be less than appealing. Thats a relevant and motivating thing to a young woman so in the case of the ad youre talking about, showing that the real effects that smoking has on your teeth or skin, its motivating. Is. Woodruff how do you know these messages will come through . We did comprehensive research. As a Regulatory Agency everything we do is steeped in research. We took these ads and talked to over 1600 youths in terms of the ads, were they relevant, meaningful, did they break through, did they make kids think . Because ultimately our goal is to change their attitudes towards Tobacco Products and ultimately change their behaviors and from the research we know these ads did very well until delivering new news and in compelling and persuasive ways. Woodruff i saw Tobacco Companies saying essentially well we agree teen smoking is a problem. What role are they playing in all of this . Well, these actually funded by tobacco user fees. So not taxpayer dollars. Woodruff this was a result of a judges ruling, a court ruling. Well, the congress through the Tobacco Control act gave f. D. A. The authority to regulate the products so as part of that authority we have the ability to educate on the dangers of the product and thats what these ads are about. Woodruff how are we reaching these young people . What kinds of places are they going to see them or hear them . Basically, anywhere where a teen engaged in media we hope to be there. So its like fish where the fish are. So everything from move and viacom programs, television, radio, print, and an extensive opportunity to engage with them in social media through key platforms where youth engage like twitter, youtube. Woodruff online. Web sites and so forth. Absolutely. Woodruff how, kathy crosby, do we measure whether this is successful . What do you do to find out if this is changing teen behaviors . So we have established a very comprehensive benchmark tracking study. So we just concluded interviews with 8,000 youth across the antitrust 5 markets and we will follow these same 8,000 youth to understand how the campaign has affected their attitudes towards the product and their behaviors towards the product. So hopefully at the end of this time well have done our job right, we believe that the message are inspiring, theyre relevant, theyre credible, theyre meaningful and memorable and we believe over time well see how effective we have been. Woodruff but youll have some hard data. Oh, yes. F. D. A. Is regulatory and everything is steeped in data. Woodruff kathy crosby with the food and drug administration. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Ifill now to our continuing look at education. As schools days grow longer, so do the academic burdens being imposed on students. But at the same time, School Systems are cutting back on the arts, physical education and even recess. Some researchers say that is counterproductive, depriving students of exercise that can help them learn. The newshours april brown reports for our american graduate project. Reporter the kids in katie mclivers First Grade Class at Fox Hill Elementary School are no strangers to the dance floor short brain breaks like this are part of regular, purposeful physical activities that take place every day at this suburban indianapolis school, both inside the classroom and out. As a grown man, playing games is a dream job. Reporter tom oneill is known as coach tom around here. The man who has a slew of games for every grade and helps make sure all fox hill kids have a chance to move and play during the day. Oneill is the schools coordinator for playworks, a National Nonprofit that helps fund positions for coaches like him in low income schools. By playing games we learn how to socialize with each other. We learn about fair play and respecting each other. If we dont play those games how are we supposed go out and have a conversation with somebody if we cant even play a game with them. I remember being a student in Elementary School and having multiple recesses that were much longer than 15 minutes. Reporter principal sean taylor heard about playworks from a parent, and found out the nonprofit would pay for half of coach toms salary. While there were many things his school needed, principal taylor decided picking up the other half would be a good investment. Thats because life at fox hill elementary is not all fun and games. There is a big focus academics at this school, which has many english language learners and where 80 of students are eligible for free and reduced lunch. But despite great expectations, principal taylor believes there must be balance. We understand the stakes are high and we welcome those stakes, we want the best for our students here as well but we know that in order to get the best we have educate the whole child which means we have to always take into account their physical health, their Mental Health as well as their ability to read, write and do math in the past where principals have said well its a frill we can take it out of the schools they are now rethinking that and putting physical education and physical activity in particular the physical activity breaks and recess back into the schools. Reporter as the district director for physical education and Health Literacy in floridas miamidade county, Jayne Greenberg has seen the struggle to balance exercise with educational achievement. Greenberg was a member of the National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine Committee which recently published a report revealing how shortsighted cutting recess and p. E. Programs has been. We know now were seeing various states that in looking a correlations that there is a high correlation between physical fitness and academic performance on standardized tests. Play is a childs work, thats their work world. Ive always told adults i cant sit for seven hours a day why would we expect a five year old to be able to. Reporter fourth grader lizzy maze would agree its much easier to concentrate after recess or a couple of games youve got all the wiggles had a little fun so now youre really tired so you are ready to do some work. Its like a different class, you can tell theyve had a good time theyve expended a lot of energy and they are ready to focus and settle down. Wouldnt know it today third reporter and even though you wouldnt know it today third grade teacher kim morrow used to absolutely dread recess. I just did not look forward to kids coming out and getting in arguments it was very stressful but now that never happens, its like you go out the kids are having fun we can have fun with them its just a positive time together there are days when it is simply too cold or too icy for the children to play safely outside. That means that coach tom has to get creative in the classroom reporter one of the popular indoor activities is the guard dog game. The child sitting in the middle must use every sense but sight to figure out whos trying to take the toy from under the chair we have to be quiet we are inside were not outside running around so it also teaches us patience that alright its not our turn yet so were going to be quiet, were going to enjoy whats happening and we can have fun still even though if were not participating we can have fun. Reporter students are learning plenty of other soft skills from these games like kindness, inclusiveness, and good sportsmanship. They are skills not all children can pick up at home, according to playworks indianas executive director Marc Mcaleavey we know that those soft skills have tremendous value in the development of kids they use positive language, they when they lose they lose well, when they win they win well. They take that to the living room of their house, they take that to their blocks, to their alleys, they take that beyond Elementary School to high school and College Reporter and perhaps unexpectedly, this kind of play has introduced a popular conflict resolution tool called roshambo, as fifth grader ahonsti morrow explains. Its basically like rock, paper, scissors if someone wants to sit next to their teacher you have to roshambo and if the other persons gets it then thats the person that gets to sit by the teacher. Reporter james valdez, a fourth grade teacher at fox hill, says having students be able to quickly solve problems themselves allows more time for learning the activities that they do in playworks promotes that conflict resolution. That piece is really important, that allows them to solve an argument quickly or allows them to even be okay with sitting next to somebody so they can focus on the assignment that they have. Reporter but the games and activities with coach tom provide Something Special for some students, a leadership opportunity. A group of students in the older grades are chosen to be junior coaches, the purple shirts they wear indicate their job is to help the younger ones with new games or even a bit of advice. Fifth grader chyla glover is one of fox hills junior coaches and says this is the first time other kids have ever looked up to her. Glover and other junior coaches learn new activities to share after school. And for chyla getting extra time with coach tom has been very meaningful hes kind of like my best friend because he truly understands me and he listens to me reporter clearly for many kids, coach tom has a special role at fox hill, hes a caring adult they see every day, one who has absolutely no bearing on their grades. According to playworks Marc Mcaleavey, it certainly doesnt hurt that coach toms primary job is to help the children have fun it makes school kind of delicious and so when kids wake up and they know they are going to play that day and theyve had this positive experience or multiple positive experiences daily positive experiences at school they want to go there. Reporter playworks operates in 300 schools around the country, and serves about 3,000 children in indiana alone. Woodruff learn more about the link between physical activity and academic performance on our website. There we also posted some of coach toms favorite recess activities plus a lesson plan for teachers on physical activity and the brain. Woodruff american graduate is a public Media Initiative funded by the corporation for public broadcasting. Ifill now we turn to afghanistan, and another potential snag as the u. S. Struggles to reach a security deal with President Hamid karzai. Ifill president ial Campaign Season has begun in earnest in kabul, with banners and billboards touting candidates for the april fifth election. One issue looms especially large over it all. Whether to sign a Security Agreement allowing some u. S. And n. A. T. O. Troops to remain beyond the end of this year, mainly in a training capacity. President hamid karzai has balked at signing the agreement, insisting he will leave it to his successor. translated afghanistan will never sign the Security Agreement under pressure. No pressure, no threat, no psychological operation against our people can force us to sign the Security Agreement. If they want to leave, they should leave today. Ifill now, the New York Times reports, and a karzai spokesman confirms, the afghan president has begun secret peace talks with the taliban. The Spokesman Says the two sides met in dubai three weeks ago. And he notes relations with the taliban have improved since karzai refused to sign the security pact. In washington, White House Press secretary jay carney did not address the report of peace talks. Instead, he warned again, time is running short. This agreement was negotiated after a prolonged process, a good faith process, and endorsed by the afghan elders represented by the loya jirga and it ought to be signed. Reporter meanwhile, president obama met this afternoon with his top military commanders, to discuss the future of the u. S. Mission in afghanistan. Ifill joining me now is one of the reporters who wrote the New York Times story Matthew Rosenberg. Why is hamid karzai meeting with the taliban . He wants to make peace. I think americans want to make peace, too. Everybody does. If they could create a peace deal with the taliban everybody would be overjoyed about this. The question is how and are the taliban really interested . Ifill when you say peace, what we were heard all along is that this Security Agreement which weve been trying to get them to sign, that thats the ingredient for peace. This s this a separate side deal that hes trying to cut . I think thats what he thought it was. He thought there was this contact or he had this opportunity and then he would kind of push off the americans. I think the american telling of this and to a lot of other afghans as well they would say, well, whats the talibans incentive . If the americans get up and leave they take their troops and money, why would they make peace now . Ifill i guess thats my question. What does peace look like with the taliban . Its an incredibly good question. I think americans and the Afghan Government also they need to accept the Afghan Government, accept the constitution, accept the rights that were granted to people that didnt have them under the taliban. But accepting the constitution can be k mean a lot of things. That can be amended or changed but it wont look like a separate taliban state in the country. Ifill so the secret meetings he has been conducting, is that why hes been so hesitant toe sign the Security Agreement with the u. S. And its allies . It looks like one of the main factors there, he thought he had Something Else going on so what does he need the u. S. . The problem is that the americans would be more than happy if he could cut his own deal and make peace. Everybody would be pleased, everybody could go home. Its the behavior engendered by his idea, he thought that he had peace talks going between going after us with fake evidence and of war crimes, tries to release more taliban from prison. A lot of kind of deeper issues in that relationship came out that i think everybody thought was unhelpful. Ifill who made the first olive branch, as it were . Its hard to say. Most sources said it came from the taliban but also coming from the taliban is a hard thing to judge. Ifill who is that . Thats always been the issue which is how do you find the person connected to mullah omar . We dont know who he is. The americans and germans have one channel that fell apart. Partly because of karzais objections back in i guess it was june and now its like, you know, how serious was this . Were they just trying to string him along . It looks that way because its gone nowhere. Ifill what would he want from them just an agreement to what . I think he wants he has this grand idea that theyre brothers, theyre afghans like him and they can brought back together and be brought in peacefully. It sometimes can be a little it can come across as sometimes naive. Ifill this isnt the first time. Maybe this is naive as well. But this isnt the first time there have been efforts to reach out to the taliban. American diplomats tried to do the same thing, havent they . They have. And, you know, they came very close. I mean, theyve been in touch with people who they believed and had evidence were doing this with the blessing of mullah omar. They just havent gone anywhere. The taliban have not seemed willing to talk peace. They havent seen in the their interest at this point. Ifill right now there was an effort made by him as a side deal to reach out to the taliban. Theres the effort to get them to sign the Security Agreement in advance of the election which is is looking less and less likely. Is there a renewed pressure in the u. S. From someone else to try to get that back on track . I think there is. The pressure from the u. S. Has been pretty enormous but its also every week there seems to be a new deadline. Like this is the week it these get done or this is the month and the deadline slips. So i think in most of the Afghan Government they see the u. S. Saying sign now or lose it then they dont sign now and dont lose it. Ifill we just saw car say cy say well, take it away if youre going to take the deal away. But that hasnt happened. What are the options available or on the table for the u. S. To act in all of this in order to get karzai off the dime . Its a tough spot for the u. S. Because i think they really dont want to just walk away. You dont want a repeat of whats happening in iraq right now. On the other hand, you know, you need to have a partner there and right now they dont feel they do have a partner. Ifill is the antitrust a position to withhold billions of dollars of aid on the table . Is that something that perhaps congress is pressuring u. S. Diplomats to do . Theres definitely pressure in congress when it comes to the economic aid. The military aid is a little more sacrosanct. But afghanistan is entirely dependent on foreign aid. This isnt iraq where money just comes out of the ground. They have no money. If we take away the aid, that country will collapse. Theres no way it cannot support itself. Woodruff so there are not a lot of options right now. Not many. Ifill and everybodys waiting for the election. Pretty much. The. Ifill Matthew Rosenberg of the New York Times. Thank you so much. Thank you. Woodruff finally tonight, another look at the Olympic Games which start later this week in sochi, and the blowback surrounding a controversial russian law. Jeff is back with that story. Brown the fanfare at a ceremony for the International Olympic committee in sochi had scarcely faded today when sharp words came from thomas bach, i. O. C. President. translated that sports can only contribute to development and peace if its not used as a stage for political dissent or for trying to score points in internal or external political contests. Have the courage to address your disagreements in a peaceful, direct political dialogue and not on the backs of the athletes. Brown it was a clear shot at National Leaders whove shunned the games over russias ban on socalled gay propaganda in the extreme, we had to see a few politicians whose contribution to the fight for a good cause consisted of publicly declining invitations they had not even received. Brown bach did not name names, but president obama is among those staying away. Instead, hes sending three openly gay athletes, tennis star billy jean king, figure skater brian boitano, and hockey player caitlin cahow. The furor began last june, when russian lawmakers adopted a law they said was essential to protect the young. translated it outlaws the spreading of information aimed at forming nontraditional Sexual Attitudes among children, attractiveness of non traditional sexual relations, a distorted perception of social equality between traditional and nontraditional sexual relations. Brown the statute sparked outrage around the world. In paris, demonstrators formed olympic rings, holding images of alleged human rights abuses in russia. And in sweden, 2,000 people gathered to sing russias National Anthem under rainbow flags. The video went viral on the internet. In response, russian president Vladimir Putin has insisted no athlete at the games will be mistreated. translated and of course, the Olympic Games will be held in full compliance with the olympic charter, without any discrimination on any basis. Brown but putin also raised hackles again in midjanuary when he said this. We dont hold anyone responsible for those relations, reporter i. O. C. President bach said today that putin has again promised to observe olympic values during the games they officially begin on friday. Brown we pick up on all this with Andranik Migranyan, director of the institute for democracy and cooperation, a Nongovernmental Organization that has close ties to russias leadership. And Brian Moulton is the legal director of the human rights campaign, an organization working to achieve equality for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender americans. And Brian Moulton, let me start with you. How serious a problem do you see russia for gays and lesbians . Its a very serious problem. We both have the law that was passed last fall that really restricts the ability of l. G. B. T. People to be public about who they are, to speak out in favor of equality at the risk of fines. And then theres just a culture, a growing culture of harassment and violence against l. G. B. T. People thats been generated and exacerbated by this law. Brown Andranik Migranyan, how do you see the situation . Whats the impetus, for example, behind this new law . Well, you know, i think that in western media this problem concerning l. G. B. T. Q. Community is grossly exaggerated. I dont think we have a serious problem concerning this issue but you know what is the problem at this moment, i think that russian government and authorities, they are trying to consolidate russian state and Russian Society around some values of collapse of the soviet union and communist ideology and because unfortunately liberals were discredited as a result of that wild capital grabbing by oligarchs of state property and creating the poverty in the society. Now Russian Society is consolidating around conservative and traditional values which, you know, includes respect to family values, to the church, to state, valuing very high the patriarchy and conservative values. And on top of that we have another problem. Russia was declining population demographic problems and on top of that the state authorities they want to encourage the birthrate and thats why they are pushing for the problem of family values and strengthening the family ties. Brown Brian Moulton, what do you respond to that . I think its very unfortunate that our response to adopting stronger values in the country means adopting values of discrimination against a group of people in that country. Its sad to see the arguments that we have heard in the United States for many years about l. G. B. T. Equality that its harmful to families ignoring the fact that these are people who have their own families or are raising children in many instances, exported and even used by american advocates in the country to hurt our community abroad. Brown have you seen it translate into direction actions and is it also whats coming with the athletes . Do you fear that something might i dont know, discrimination against particular athletes . Well, we have certainly and seen the law applied and weve seen advocates fined. We just saw at the end of last month a newspaper editor fined for running an article about a gay man who lost his job as a teacher because of his Sexual Orientation. So the law is being used to restrict the ability of individuals who express positive messages about l. G. B. T. People. Certainly we worry that athletes openly l. G. B. T. Athletes who go to the games and want to express their support for the l. G. B. T. Q. Community in russia may be in danger. You heard the mixed messages that putin and other officials in russia have given. Im hoping people arent prosecuted during the games but what happens to l. G. B. T. People when the games are over. Pelley mr. Migranyan, do you hear mixed messages in what we heard from vaptd Vladimir Putin and other officials . No, i havent seen and heard any mixed messages. Is problem is that today New York Times mentioned that 75 countries in the world they criminalized samesex relations. Russia repealed that law in 1994 and we had these very severe laws under soviet rule. And thats why we dont have any discrimination. The other problem is that which we would really like to make clear for everybody in the world this is the law against propaganda in presence of kids. Thats the only problem. Otherwise, you know, we have the position that were living alone leave us alone. We protect and we respect the minority rules. Respect the majority rights and majority way of life. And this is the reality. Thats why i think that, again, there is unfortunately a situation when some minorities are becoming very active and in some cases unfortunately aggressive. They would like to impose their way of life and to impose on majority their perception how people must live and act. And we need to have tolerance on both sides. Brown i just want to ask you before we have to end here about the response. Starting with you, Brian Moulton. Are you satisfied with president obamas action and people he sent. Are you satisfied with the i. O. C. s response and companies . Well, were certainly very pleased that the president has taken the opportunity to send openly l. G. B. T. Athletes as part of the delegation and to speak out against the russian law and our own state department that has done a lot to make sure that people traveling to russia for the games are aware of the issues facing l. G. B. T. People. Certainly we would like to see the International Olympic committee do more. We would like to see the corporate sponsors of the olympics speak out against the law. Theres much more that needs to be done to raise awareness. Brown mr. Migranyan, we have about 30 seconds because were near the end of the program. Whats been the response to the outside pressure in russia . What do you make of that . I dont think in russia this is a real problem and im very glad that Billie Jean King was in the american delegation. When i was a student i was very happy, a tennis fan, to see her in soviet union in moscow and that time soviet union had very strict laws against l. G. B. T. Community but she came to soviet union, she didnt have any problem and i hope now she will enjoyer will stay in sochi and i think everybody will be welcome there independently regardless of their Sexual Orientation because sochi is the place and the olympics is the place not to show their Sexual Orientation now show good results in sports. Brown Andranik Migranyan and Brian Moulton, thank you both very much. Thank you. Ifill again, the major developments of the day. The Congressional Budget Office projected that by 2021 as many as 2. 3 million workers will work less, or not at all, as they gain Health Insurance. Overseas markets had another rough day, but wall street managed to make up a bit of lost ground. The dow industrials gained 72 points. Woodruff on the newshour online right now, like it or not, facebook celebrates its tenyear anniversary today. So we want to hear from you which innovations of the past decade, from the wall to the newsfeed, are your favorites . Take our interactive poll, and then share it with your friends. Thats on our homepage. All that and more is on our web site, newshour. Pbs. Org. Ifill and thats the newshour for tonight. On wednesday, we return to the sochi olympics, this time with a preview of what to expect at the actual games. Im gwen ifill. And im judy woodruff. Well see you online and again here tomorrow evening. For all of us here at the pbs newshour, thank you and good night. Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by moving our economy for 160 years. Bnsf, the engine that connects us. And by the alfred p. Sloan foundation. Supporting science, technology, and improved Economic Performance and Financial Literacy in the 21st century. 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