International Community Community if not with the United States specifically. In shia islam the main leader of the shias that bush is the first mom i only have two sons and hussein has son chose the path of peace and negotiations and hussein shows the path of confrontation on martyrdom so these two schools of thought provide different justifications for different policies and some of republic and the Supreme Leader it was the idea of. A mom her sons peace and reconciliation in the frame that was honorable an honorable peace of one. He called it heroic flexibility which allowed the system to make the compromise that was pretty painful with the great satan. New islamic order was set against the west and in particular against the influence of the United States. This new regime had not forgotten the twenty six years earlier in One Thousand Nine Hundred Fifty Three the cia had organized a coup detat there will be no question of history repeating itself. Dont forget that back on then Prime Minister most a decade been overthrown by an american coup. In one hand the Islamic Revolution hadnt yet come about so the americans had shown their hostility towards our people well before the revolution. That the us is set to some how we can irans. Irans you know our nation is that lets put it in that way and the u. S. Will not change its policy because the pillars of political the structure in the us
will not accept iran as a Regional Power that has its own independent then the way of economic political Event Security or military policy yes this is very strong. This Anti Americanism is accompanied by implacable opposition to the state of israel into rounds eyes israel is washingtons proxy in the region and an opponent of the palestinians and their rights. I think after the revolution the iranians quickly realize that in order to have influence in the region and project power in the region they have to. Seen not as
a sheer power but as an islamic power and this is the real reason that they picked up the cause of palestine the cause of palestine was left on the ground by the arabs and it was a was an issue that allowed iran to play the role of a muslim or not as the sheer power. Of. Religion looking at our countrys National Security considerations as we consider that the Zionist Regime is a usurping and it would seem in the region. Or as such it constitutes our biggest regional threat. Globally speaking that thread is the United States with the anti israeli and anti american stance is a closely linked to iran no longer has any official relations with the two countries since the Hostage Crisis of one Nine Hundred Seventy nine the American Embassy has become a museum. Inside
everything has been preserved as it was. A last reminder of the heroic time surrounding the foundation of the Islamic Republic. Listening to american ism did not prevent iran from being pragmatic and negotiating a resolution to the Nuclear Crisis with the United States on january the sixteenth Two Thousand And Sixteen at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency in vienna dignitaries signed a joint comprehensive plan of action. Now your work really begins yes yes. The economic sanctions on iran were officially lifted for the First Time Since the one Nine Hundred Seventy Nine Revolution Washington and tehran have managed to resolve an international. I says through diplomacy and dialogue the historic
antagonism between the two countries might soon become a thing of the past. I think president obama and secretary kerry held out some hope that in the long term very long term starting a diplomatic process with iran making it ok for americans to speak with iran showing that we could do deals with iran could help over time change irans Foreign Policy as opposed to always just containing iran and being against iran. In the declarations made by the Supreme Leader and other senior figures. There was this idea that if the nuclear deal work correctly applied and everyone respected their commitments and promises then it would bring concrete results and you know. It would be possible to enter into other negotiations on other issues on the basis
of this success for jewish belief. From here on iran hope to normalize its relations with the west but the country was then confronted with the syria and iran crises which would give it the opportunity to use other methods than diplomacy to once again become a major planet in the middle east. Of. Behest as a cemetery in tehran is the biggest in the country. The man on this post was named. The day he was an officer in the revolutionary
guard who was killed in september Two Thousand And Sixteen in syria. The Revolutionary Guard Corps created in one Nine Hundred Seventy nine is the most powerful Security Organization in the country its the tehran regimes praetorian guard. No one knows how many soldiers iran has lost in syria probably several hundred from the beginning of the Popular Uprising against a bash in the spring of Two Thousand And Eleven to run has taken the side of the Syrian Regime a regime that it has always considered to be an historical and strategic ally. To appreciate the importance of this relationship we need to go back to the iran
iraq war. In september one Nine Hundred Eighty Saddam Hussein decided to invade iran just months after the revolution the fledgling Islamic Republic was threatened with destruction. In the heart that he thought if. In the iranian Collective Memory Syria was the only country to supporters during the war against iraq. And weve never forgotten that that hard to the more which was. That sense of strategic solitude that the iranians experienced during the iran iraq war. Deep and packed under thinking and their predecessor meant and still to this day influence how they see the world. The fact that saddam used Chemical Weapons against iran where. The entire
International Community was looking away has created this sense of paranoia in iran being able to have its own convention on Defense Mechanisms and iran not trusting and the International Community to look after its interests. This devastating conflict lasted eighteen years and cost the lives of nearly Five Hundred Thousand on the iranian side alone. A traumatic experience for the population the fight against the iraqi army allowed the Islamic Republic to bolster its legitimacy. Today the streets of tehran are still replete with memorials to the martyrs who died on the front all those years ago. This war against iraq also comprised
a sort of Geostrategic Matrix the notion of never again has been dominant ever since. Never again victims of Chemical Weapons never again the scientific Enemy Aircraft in the skies over tehran and never again the slightest patch of territory trampled on by a foreign army. I think in the iranian mind said moving or pushing away the threats from the iranian borders has been a constant and its very a strong and it can mobilize economic you know. Forces and energy to tackle that and thats very strong and i dont think this will soon be removed from the iranian interests. In order to compensate the sense of strategic solitude that they experienced during those years. Iran has developed to a thin metric defense of policy one as its Ballistic Missile program which given
the fact that it doesnt have an air force is the only way that it can reach its rivals or enemies on their soil and the second is what they call a forward Defense Policy which is based on hiring partners and proxies away from its borders so that it can actually be terror direct attack on iranian soil. As well la is the crown jewel of this forward Defense Policy. His one year can do the Slutty Shit On Hezbollah is a strategic ally of iran a good bit about how you look at this Lebanese Group has the same ideology as iran is would like to hit it to be. Dead we see how so it is naturally
a very close ally to let is. Hardly to laugh while his lies hezbollah is also an ally of syria will use his word love with his past so it is a link between ourselves and syria the. More this true year that if about what you know what did i have to you my house and like ourselves and syria. Hezbollah is hostile towards israel you see us i tell you dont destroy your home to me was. That i was going to tehran maintaining those links with lebanese shia organization hezbollah is therefore a necessity for political and military groups which iran cofounded in the early one Nine Hundred Eighty s. Is to this day an ally and honest. Tool in the latters resistance to israel. Were. Its through syria that iran has provided hezbollah which logistic and strategic count. They can talk to iranian officials today many believe that the reason israel did not attack iran at the height of the Nuclear Standoff was because they were afraid of his well loss of power of retaliation not because of irans capabilities so for tehran defending the damascus regime as a question of Self Interest it must not for as of late Two Thousand And Eleven the Islamic Republic decided to send Military Advisors to Hezbollah In Syria To Support Bashar Al Assad its efforts to crush the rebellion. To run had its own outlook on the syrian conflict in its size the civil uprising
among part of the population against Bashar Al Assad never took place tehran saw it as a Conspiracy Engineer by the west and israel. Tried on was why i support Bashar Al Assad because he wasnt is the legitimate president of syria so we are probably stayed out loud that Military Advisors of the Islamic Republic of iran have helped the Syrian Military the Syrian Government and the Syrian People in order to avoid terrorists taking power over this country and replacing the legitimate Syrian Government. If you. Put iran the country behind the Terrorist Threat in syria is saudi arabia. And in riyadh the saudi leaders have indeed been looking forward to the fall of bashing assad since the beginning of the Syrian Crisis a means for them to oppose the rise in power of iran in the region. The
kingdom understood very well and told. The western countries if you look at all of the public statements from saudi officials they identified easy iran as the main supporter of bashar thats it and therefore the kingdom called on all of the countries in the west in europe and in america to oppose the iranian. Direction. And control over the situation in syria syria became the stage for a radical standoff between the regions two systems of power the sunni Saudi Monarchy against the shiite Islamic Republic of iran. I think many people including Many American Many Americans and many europeans underestimated the degree to which syria was
a red line for iran and that iran was willing to really take risks and put the resources in to back assad assad. I think the same is true for russia. Neither iran nor russia wanted to accept. The notion of Regime Change that people in the middle east could write dont rise up and get rid of their leader we know russia has a real allergic reaction to that and iran in turn. In september Two Thousand And Fifteen russia began large scale intervention on the iranian side to defend bashar assad. But meanwhile another protagonist appeared in the middle eastern theater. On june the twelfth Two Thousand And Fourteen Islamic State forces took control of iraqs Second City Mosul a few days later in syria fell into jihad is times and became the capital of the selfstyled islamic caliphate. Protests around
the advances made by as an extremist sunni Terrorist Movement that sees the shia as one of its principal enemies radically change the stakes while continuing to defend the damascus regime the Islamic Republic is now fighting for its survival as much in syria as in iraq. But i dont want to steal all of this is your friendship with iraq is precious to us. Naturally iraqs security is also ours and vice versa. The same is true for syria. And the syrians dont overcome the g. Hardest at home they will enter iraq and then our country. And spread throughout the region that. We turn bad for their well. That is why the security of the muslim world and that of iran depends on the security of
syria john is. That we. Search to defend its borders iran openly send soldiers from its cuts force and elite units of the Republican Guard to both syria and iraq. You know i think iran has influence and commitment in iraq was present well before mozilla in the summer of twenty fourteen really go all the way back to the us intervention in two thousand and three. The empowerment of a shia Majority Government backed by the role that the iranian militia played. It was since then the arena in presence was both opportunistic to expand its power expand its influence in the region but also defensive because it first of all didnt want to return to power of the Baathist Party and sunni arab domination secondly it didnt want the United States to use iraq as
a platform to launch either an invasion or a Symmetrical Waffly or against iran in the thought that that was actually possible at the time i think theres there are some conflicts that we witnessed in syria and iran in iraq pushed iranians increasingly to act as the as a as a sixth area power in order to mobilize support for their cause in the region there was no water way for them to to other than becoming increasingly sectarian they had to marshal support for elsewhere and they had to marshal support from the afghan e. Groups in iran and and the pakistanis pakistanis and they had to use for a legend they had to she is one. And therefore they have to act in a much more sectarian way. With the help of the shia to iran managed to make its
presence felt in syria and iraq the revolutionary guard units have been the essential tool in this strategy and thanks to their victory on the ground. They have undoubtedly never had so much influence in the iranian political game. As the i ask caliphate look close to collapse the Islamic Republic was in the process of establishing an unbroken territorial cora daughter the Mediterranean Baghdad Damascus and beirut. For certain western countries as for saudi arabia iran had become the new leader of the great regional game in play it was now a question of doing as much as possible to reduce its employment. That. Riyadh may the twenty first Two Thousand And Seventeen donald trump on his first foreign visitors u. S. President it presents an opportunity to define the new Middle East Policy of the United States together with his allies a major strategic turnaround. Probably want to. Win back the middle east particularly our arab allies. Sunni arab states led by saudi arabia turkey and israel and what he heard from all of those and all of us are heard from them is are rare is the big threat its our
isis convinced of the dividends from this new approach trump now refused any idea of possible dialogue with iran. Saudi arabia has welcomed mr trumps realistic approach to meeting the challenge of irans extra territorial ambitions in the area and we think it was about time that the us walk up to the fact that the problem with iran is not just Nuclear Development but it is this ambition to expand its control over the arab countries around it and mr trump was very much responsive to this idea the visit to saudi arabia was a clear signal that the u. S. Is going to now completely side with iran sunny neighbors and support them and arm them and the obama era of believing that the region
should be shared between iran and saudi arabia was over and that was i think the trip to saudi arabia and the rhetoric against iran was the turning point. President trumps insistence upon this new American Vision of the middle east came as a relief to the Saudi Monarchy. Of Saudi Monarchy weakened by the bloody conflict in yemen which it is bogged down in. Since march Two Thousand And Fifteen the young crown Prince Mohammed bin summoned the new strongman of the kingdom has been at the head of a vast Military Coalition against the rebel who face who are regarded as tehrans trojan horse. Is there an offshoot of sick in yemen called his eightys. Who have sworn allegiance. To iran like hezbollah in lebanon. Publicly declared that they want to liberate the holy places in saudi arabia. From the saudi government so it cannot to great the business of getting in the pollution or god willing and country in its south and border that is a red line for saudi arabia you cannot exit iran and its militia Hezbollah Devilishly Gut North South thing border with the reality that seventy mountains area you cannot control its very difficult to to really close the line it cannot and go inside the country so you had to take an action this is this is wrong. Because it is not irans presence be compared with the saudis presence in circling the entire tape theory of yemen i mean there has been some minimal you know
supports and aids going there there has been some you know. Political support for the yemeni you know favored Political Parties no doubt but comparing the one size of the two sides involvement in yemen you can its easy to be understood that iran is not that involved and its presence is in a minimal way. Whatever the reality of Irans Military Intervention might be the conflict was now at a stalemate riyadh and its allies imposed a total blockade on the northern part of the country dominated by the who fears Coalition Bombing had led to a humanitarian disaster. In addition to the civilian victims and the Tens Of Thousands of people displaced
nearly Eight Million work risk of starvation in november Two Thousand And Seventeen the u. N. Classified the situation as the worst humanitarian crisis in the world its very clear that whether we like the saudis and how theyre waiting there while the saudis are never going to allow themselves to be faced with the is really problem of One Hundred Fifty Thousand iranian supplied missiles in the hands of an iranian surrogate on their borders in Southern Lebanon the saudis say the same thing coming along their borders with yemen and if they have to bomb the entire country to the stone age they will so the idea is we have to find a way to. Alone many that threat. For the new American Administration the situation is clear beyond the shocking humanitarian situation. The Yemen Conflict was additional proof of iranian plans to dominate the middle east eager to take Action Donald Trump chose the Nuclear Dossier while the
international agency in charge of monitoring the Two Thousand And Fifteen deal indicated that iran was respecting its obligations the american president insisted that this was untrue on october thirteenth Two Thousand And Seventeen he decertified the deal insisting it no longer corresponded to the interests of the United States. Based on factual record i have put forward i am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification. We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence more terror and the very real threat of Irans Nuclear breakout thank you trump also demanded that the other signatory countries tighten the terms of the deal failing which he would definitely walk away from it. This american turnaround put the International Iran nuclear deal
on hold and on the brink of collapse. I. Think the trump administrations decision to decertify around in compliance with the nuclear deal was based solely on the president s insistence that we do so it had nothing to do with the actual facts of the matter and it is nothing to do with what actually might be useful to getting to some strengthening of the terms of the deal or any other diplomatic outcomes it was entirely the south by the presidency go thats obviously a very risky strategy which could lead to the erosion of the deal and its not clear to me that President Trump or Anyone Around here would really has a plan for what they would do if they jase of pure c. P. O. Way without a place it would only push the iranians to double down on the policies of. Their misfired program and therefore the Friends Policy it would not push
more moderate of iranian behavior in the region if the is being you know in a way that you know these troy. Then you know a new era of distrust will be created in both countries relations which in my believe is not good for both sides. In tehran it is clearly understood that the American Administration refuses to ratify the new position that iran occupiers on the regional chance board but the iranian leaders also know that their countrys new role in the middle east is a very delicate one between the joint handling with russia of the syrian issue riyadhs obsessive hostility the changing political map in iraq and the Security Fears over israel they need to be able to arbitrate between the opposing interests of their enemies and their partners. Iran is
a self limiting our the more it pushes the more resistance of create because at the end of the day its a shia country among sunnis its a persian country among arabs so without any doubt there is a seeing how much influence iran can have in the region but there is also a floor for how much influence of came out because it is of the region and it cannot be entirely excluded from the region. At the same time the Islamic Republic is at a crossroads in its history the aging Supreme Leader ali khamenei is increasingly frail and sick his succession will be a crucial element in the restructuring of the future political balance of the country. In the case of the current Supreme Leader his office is a big back black box of probably around a few thousand people working in that office and no one has a clear understanding of the Power Dynamics in that office the most influential
people in that office and his own plans and designs for succession the decision surrounding succession and how it plays out within iran will be enormously consequential. For the future of iran and stability of the Islamic Republic and for the capacity of iran to continue casting such a wide influence across the region we simply Dont Know How Succession will play out but often in iran the most powerful institution at the time of the transition will determine what comes next and the most powerful institution at the moment is the revolutionary guards in iran with the. Economic power and influence. The revolutionary guard is particularly keen to prevent another Protagonist Wielding influence in the internal political debates of the country these are the protagonist being the iranian people. At the end of december Two Thousand And Seventeen Tens Of Thousands of them took to the streets in eighty towns and cities across the country. Despite the repression leaving twenty five People Killed and Three Thousand Seven Hundred arrested they denounce the deterioration in their standard of living widespread cronyism and corruption amongst the leadership with cries of down with hezbollah and not guards or not lebannon my soul is for iran. These demonstrators address the salient point if the regime prefers to spend resources on its lebanese syrian iraq and yemeni allies rather than on its own citizens then it loses legitimacy. The Islamic Republic has never been as
powerful outside its own borders as it is today. With the demise of the i ask caliphate the regime is facing a further loss in Popular Support for its military actions and growing calls for a Radical Change in. Priorities. In the eyes of many iranians the unfair to should no longer use history as a means of propaganda and instead focus on ensuring economic and social justice for all and guarantee freedom of speech. Such reforms appear key to the Regime Survival without change it is likely that further protests will follow and even uprisings they in turn could lead to a spiral of violence and to a radicalization of the regime or to its collapse. Or. Rocknroll. Sinful rhythm condemned by the church. I know the evil feeling that you feel when you think. Your past is. Strong no one is more popular than jesus. Rock and religion clash that brings many closer to late. For the two really soon to reconcile the current devil. Storms of august ninety w
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