As a tourist, as a former resident of washington, d. C. And a resident of other parts of the United States, and its just such an honor and a pleasure to be here as a speaker and to talk about my book pivotal tuesdays. Im also so pleased that you all exhibited this interest in a such an obscure subject that no one seems to pay any attention to, president ial elections. Why cant we get the papers to write about president ial candidates, i dont know. But more seriously, were more than a year away from election day. 2016. Or maybe less than a year now, arent we . But we have already seen some remarkable moments emerge in this election cycle. We have had a huge celebrity who put the political establishment on the run, a whole slew of outsider candidates on both the right and the left ends of the political spectrum. Were seeing how new media, social media is changing campaigning, changing the way candidates and the campaigns communicate to voters, the way in which voters interact with one another and interact with the people who want to be their president. And we also have our experiencing an immense amount of gridlock, partisan infighting thats causing many observers to throw up their hands and saying is this whole thing going down the tubes . Well, is it . Whats new about 2015 and 2016 . Whats not . What can we learn from earlier president ial elections that will help us make sense of this one . So this is a book about four elections that occurred between 1900 and 2000. And of course, there were a lot of elections that happened this is hold on a second. I think im going to need to go back to our slide show. Slide show. All right. Lets see if this works this time. There we go. All right. Back on track. Didnt lose you. So i could have chosen a lot of elections. There were many moments, Pivotal Moments, political moments in the 20th century. There are also other elections that i didnt write about that arguably are have been written about a lot and arguably are very good fodder for a book thats putting all these in context. I could have written about the election of 1948 when thurmond bolted from the Democratic Party to run as a states rights candidate. I could have written of course about 1960, the election of john f. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. I could have written about, of course, Ronald Reagans landslide election of 1980 and the conservative revolution that came in his wake. I also could have written about more recent elections, 2000, 2008. Both historic in their own ways, but i chose to write about these four. And why these four . Well, one of the reasons is personal. I was a Campaign Staffer on the 1992 Campaign Working for the clinton gore team, and i had some personal recollections to bring to that story. But more broadly, all four of the elections had Common Threads that i thought were good ways to that knit together and show how different electoral cycles feed into one another and also contrast from each other. They all occurred at moments of economic and cultural change. Sometimes tremendous economic and cultural change. In 1912, america is still reeling from the transition from farm to factory. From countryside to city. The birth of industrial capitalism and all of the consequences of that. Generation of great wealth but also generation of great inequality and of other social ills. 1932, of course, you have an economic crisis unprecedented in the history of the United States, the Great Depression. 1968, a moment of incredible cultural change, of countercultural change, of change on both the left and the right, and the creation of grass roots movements who still are shaping politics today. And then 1992 is the first president ial election after the end of the cold war. Its the first president ial election in which cable tv becomes the dominant medium through which the campaign is fought and won. And it also is the first election of a baby boomer generation president and candidate in which different issues become salient in the campaign and in the election. So, lets start with one of my favorite people to write about as a president ial historian, Teddy Roosevelt. And 1912 was the year that was distinctive for many reasons and one of them being an expresident decided to once again throw his hat into the ring. It is, again, a Pivotal Moment when this the conversation because theres been so much economic change, the conversation in 1912 revolves around making government do more to rein in the power of industrial capitalism. So if you dial back to the 19th century, not only did american president s have a different role in american life, and i can talk about more of that in our discussion after my talk, but the government wasnt that big. You didnt have all of these large buildings along constitution avenue and independence avenue. The most americans encountered the government on a daily basis through going to the post office. And other than that, the military and the post office were really the only kind of places of connection between an ordinary american and their federal government. And roosevelt is a pivotal figure in that he was he served as president at this moment of kind of muddling through what the federal government should do as corporations get bigger, as the population gets bigger, as society gets more complex. And he serves he inherits the office after the assassination of william mckinley, of course. He is reelected in 1904. Has a public debate about whether to run again in 1908. Decides not to and hands over the keys to his appointed successor William Howard taft, who was a friend and ally and someone that roosevelt believed would be a good caretaker of roosevelts progressive legacy. That didnt quite turn out as roosevelt expected. So teddy leaves the oval office, steams off on a steamer to africa to go on safari as only colonel roosevelt could, and hes gone for over a year. Hes in africa and then hes in europe on a speaking tour. And meanwhile, William Howard taft is back here in washington disappointing him. Hes firing some of the close allies, close confidants in the government. Hes still closely tied with kind of the old guard in the Republican Party, and he has a vastly different personality. Hes someone who when his description of the 1908 president ial campaign, quote, the most uncomfortable four months of my life. So well all just sit and marinate on the fact campaigning was four months long and living with this cycle for this long. And roosevelt is gone, and when he comes back, he is greeted as a conquering hero. And so, you know, one of the conversations thats been running around, around the phenomenon of donald trump over the past summer in particular is this, well, americas just obsessed with celebrity and theyre you know, hes a famous person and so and kind of saying weve all become so very, very shallow. Well, america was obsessed with colonel expresident Theodore Roosevelt and when he returns in june of 1910 to new york city, steams into the harbor, hundreds of boats come out to greet him. Thousands of people line the streets, brass bands play. Flags wave. And he in headlines across the nation, heres the tacoma times in the pacific northwest, far, far away that devotes its whole front page to Teddy Roosevelts return. He is an outsized public figure and hes someone that who people not only admire but also are fascinated by. He comes back in 1912, and hes spouting some more radical ideas sorry, 1910. He was talking about more Government Intervention into markets, doing more to help people, to rectify the economic inequalities that were coming in the wake of the growth of the big corporations of railroads, of steel and oil companies. And so he goes on this huge speaking tour across the country. He barnstorms the country. Sounding more and more progressive at every stop. And more radical, picking up on ideas that kind of have been on the fringe of the political conversation and making them more mainstream and having a really robust reception. Now, part of this again was curiosity and part of it was genuine hunger for change. And this is something we see over and over again, that outsider candidates, candidates who are pushing the envelopes of the political conversation get traction when people are hungry for a new message. When theyre dissatisfied with the status quo. When they feel something more, Something Different needs to be done. Sometimes its more government, sometimes its less. And now, of course, Theodore Roosevelt was not the only outsider candidate shaking up the 1912 election as the race grew nearer. We also have eugene debs, a socialist. We have a former socialist running for president now and gene debs was a true socialist running for president. 1912 was the year he won, got the most votes. He got over a million votes and in 1912. And roosevelt is picking up some of the things that debs is saying, definitely more strongly radical, further to the left as we would put him on the spectrum but theres a hunger for new ideas, and so outsider candidates are getting some momentum. So by this point as the actual people are having to declare for a long time, roosevelt says im not going to run, im not going to run. Then he just keeps on getting the big crowds, big crowds. He decides to run against his old friend and ally William Howard taft for the nomination. He doesnt get it. Taft marshals the party faithful. At the convention, he ends up the victor. Roosevelt bolts and runs at a thirdparty candidate. The head of the bull moose party. What happens at the end of the day . None of the people i have talked about a win. Woodrow wilson wins. If you look at the electoral map, see states that went republican in the past went for roosevelt and my home state of washington and also california but wilson is also picking up on these conversations about government doing more. This is when the Democratic Party was the party of small government. Of states rights. Of washington, d. C. Doing less. But wilson in this moment where clearly t lly the u. S. Governme to do more than just have a post office, have an army, that he runs and then governs as much more interventionist, progressive guy. This is when the party becomes more activist central government. Now, let me go now to another progressive. Someone whos coming from the same Political Movement, the Political Movement of roosevelt, wilson and the like, Herbert Hoover. And Herbert Hoover is now remembered as if when those rankings of who the greatest president s of the 20th century are, hes usually not ranked very highly. When people when i talk to my students, College Students about Herbert Hoover and ask them what they know about Herbert Hoover, they say Great Depression, hoovervilles, failure. Well, Herbert Hoover was once one of the famous men in america, one of the most admired men in america. He was so famous that his name was a verb. In world war i, this has an extraordinary life story. He was an orphan from oregon. He goes to Stanford University when it was tuition free back in the 1890s. And he is a self made millionaire within a few decades. Still a relatively young man. A mining engineer. Hes tapped by Woodrow Wilson to run the Food Administration in 1901. Figuring out how to conserve food, get food to the troops. And how to get food to people in war torn countries both during and after the war. And housewives would talk about hooverizing when they were economizing on food. He then goes on to become commerce secretary in the 1920s and then is elected president in 1928. And so not only is he renowned for managerial expertise, he is really good at running things and taking a real thorny logistical problem and making it work, but hes also a master of media. Hes really good at working new media. This is a guy in 1928 who has talking Motion Pictures as a campaign ad using talkies. Theyd only been out for a year. So rather than being this kind of fuddy duddy failure, he was a modern man. He understood the power of words, the power of images, the power of messages. He once said, the world talks in phrases. The world lives by phrases and we are good advertisers. He understood that politics and policy was something that could and should be packaged as if it were a consumer product, that there were very precise ways to target and margaret to people. Again, he was very forward thinking. Another person who was acutely aware of public image is frank delano roosevelt. He became so acutely aware of this in large part because he had to work very, very, very hard to project an image of himself that was at odds with reality. As we all know, he contracted polio in the early 1920s, disabled for the remainder of his life and went to Great Lengths to disguise the fact that he could not walk unassisted. I love this photograph which is a rarely seen photograph and i wish that i had had the rights and time to get it into the book. But this is a picture of Frank Roosevelt after being elected governor of new york and a classic roosevelt pose projecting strength, projecting confidence. And of course, he is leaning on a cane. People knew he had polio and wasnt completely able. But he was it was very important to convince voters and to convince the press that he was up for the job. Not only a job of governor but then the job of president. But if you look very, very closely here, youll see theres a second cane very artfully concealed behind his leg. He is holding himself up with all of his strength trying to look casual to keep himself upright. So in 1932, you have two modern politicians who are masters of new media, who understand the power of image, the power of short phrases, of sound bytes, even though sound bytes were a little longer than they are today. Both hoover and roosevelt probably would have been very good at twitter. Perhaps. But the game has changed. So you can be the master of message, the master of political communication, but if there is if reality is at odds, no amount of phrases and images can work against the hard economic reality of the Great Depression. I should have given an additional note about this photograph which is a soup kitchen in chicago run by al capone. So, the Great Depression is such a magnitude, such a collapse, a crisis of capitalism thats not been encountered before in American History that it completely floors hoover and all of his advisers and frankly, political professionals on both sides of the isle of its magnitu magnitude, its duration, and the fact the old remedies didnt work. Hoover actually again the master of phrases as the economy started going south, he said, we cant talk about this as a panic. We cant talk about it as anything but a depression. A depression is was understood to be something that wasnt that bad. Just a depression. Not falling off a cliff. Well come out of it. And then the depression becomes great. And all of the tools that the government had, again, the federal government despite a couple of decades of progressive you do not have these large agencies that can intervene, that can stimulate the economy. Its very much dependent on private markets making things work. And hoover did not realize this until too late, and by the time that his administration was making more serious interventions in the economy, and they did, the reconstruction finance administration, for example, is one example of a hoover initiated piece of the new deal. But he was he didnt catch it until too late and because even he was the master of management. His reputation as a greet engineer then didnt work when he was trying to engineer an end to the Great Depression. And he couldnt do it. Roosevelt takes advantage of this masterfully. This was a year when any incumbent would have had a difficult time but particularly with someone who was able to pick up on the americans need not for policy prescriptions, because if you go back and see what roosevelt said on the stump in 1932 he was blissfully vague. We think of him as a policy wonk. He wasnt. He was about hope and change and big ideas. He got dinged for it, too. There was some voters like, he is not saying anything. Hes not you know, i want some meat on the bones. But he talked about the forgotten man. He talked to these voters who were out of work, who were feeling hopeless, and said, were going to fix this. We need bold solutions. We are going to do something. It will be new. He barnstorms the country on the roosevelt special, the back of a train. Again, this coming to the people, this image of vitality, of personality, but again leaning on something. Making sure a carefully crafted campaign and image thats reaching to a really frustrated and despondent nation. So okay. Roosevelt is elected. The new deal is reelected again. And we america enters a period thats understood as sort of a high point of modern liberalism. Where government grows larger. Where the where the liberals are 234 ascendance and the condition servetives are in retreat, but one of the things i want to convey in my talk today is that we are neither a conservative nation nor a liberal nation, nor is it right to say theres eras of conservatism and eras of liberalism. Yes, theres times when one side is more dominant but lets think of a shifting center where the range shifts a little to the left and a little to the right depending on the moment and depending on whos articulating the message because even in the 1940s and 1950s and 1960s, the high point of american liberalism, there is a conservative a coalition that is build