that happens to the track with the electoral college projection, the state by state race. a multi-million dollars campaign attacking mitt romney's record on the issue we all know will define the election. >> when mitt romney was governor, massachusetts lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs, a rate twice the national average and fell to 47th in job creation, fourth from the bottom. instead of hiring workers from his own state, romney outsourced call center jobs to india. he cut taxes for millionaires like himself while raising them on the middle class and left the state 2.6 billion deeper in debt. >> the new ad is airing in nine states including seven you see in yellow here. that's thes to-up yellow. here is the state of the race, the race to 270 electoral votes and 155 days out. it takes 270 to win. we have solid blue and light blue. that means solid bam or leading obama and only 23 shy of victory if the map doesn't change from here on out. governor romney, a bit of a steeper hill but at 206 and needs 270 to win. if you look at the map, it looks much more competitive, much more like bush versus gore of 2000. now, advantage to the president, you would have to say all seven of these toss-up states, hamm, virginia, florida, iowa, colorado, and nevada, all seven carried by president obama last time. at least he has veterans on the ground that know how they work. if nothing else changes the president could win florida, just florida in the 29 electoral votes and that would get him across the line. what does governor romney has to do? he has to win florida and ohio, the two biggest prizes and put together the rest of the votes going state by state. we will spend a lot of time over the next 155 days going through these and dig deeper in a chess match and that's what this is of getting to 270 or blocking the other guy from getting there. our chief political analyst joins us now. when you look at this map as i just noted, it is hard to see governor romney making it up. unless he wins florida, unless he wins ohio, that would put him ahead of the president there and you would go to these other five smaller prizes. when you look at the map, especially when you think of 2008 and what has changed, what jumps out most? >> again, florida, ohio of course, but i look at the historically republican states that president obama won, that mitt romney's campaign says it has to win, john, in order to win in the electoral college, those would be the states of indiana, virginia, and north carolina. so i think those are three states we really need to be looking at because the romney campaign needs to win them and then they need to win those states, ohio and florida, and then they need to win sort of what they call wild card states, eight wild card states, like new hampshire, nevada, wisconsin, which he will be talking about later in the show and so they need to win a wild card state, too, and then they figure they can beat president obama. >> and that's what gets interesting. there are so many scenarios and both campaigns agree and i want to go back to where we started and take them back. you have the toss-up states in yellow. if you look, here you are 247 to 206. the campaigns don't dispute them. they would like to see wisconsin and pennsylvania are toss-ups and the obama people would like to to say we can but arizona and its votes into play and we'll lean red until we see data that can change it. when you think of the path, i will give you a scenario. if the president were to win ohio, and win new hampshire, say, and then governor romney win the rest of the toss ups, using this as a hypothetical, 269-269. we're not saying that's going to happen. history is they tend to break late. the toss-ups tend to break if there are six or seven on the board and five or six to the front-runner. when you think 2008 electoral college, pretty much a blowout and 2000 and the florida and the supreme court, what's the likely scenario? >> i think it will be closer. i don't think we'll see a blowout. i think one thing we need to be talking about is that unemployment number. in a lot of these toss-up states, john, and you know this, the unemployment number is lower than it is nationally. you may have fewer grudge voters on the unemployment number. then there is a debate going on among pollsters. i talked to democratic pollsters and republican pollsters and they're asking the question when does the psychology kick in? when do people really start thinking that the economy is not going to improve if the unemployment number keemz going up? was it this last unemployment report we got or is it going to not one next month or the month after? we don't know. >> we don't know and we'll continue to track the economic data. we do know this, the economy and the jobs will be issued and we'll see it on on the data question and the psychology question. this map of course likely to change and maybe many times in the days and weeks ahead as the campaigns compete and the president wants to turn the light blue dark blue and governor romney wants to turn the light red dark red and they want to create new opportunities in states that appear to be out of reach and wisconsin will be a case study here. you see it has ten electoral votes. a big statewide contest before november that will help us much better understand the state of play here. that election, tomorrow. it is an effort to recall the republican governor and replace him with a democrat tom baron. >> scott walker promised. >> 250 thousand new jobs. >> and scott walker delivered nothing. in fact, last year wisconsin lost more jobs than any other state in the country. >> he wants to spend $100 million on a trolley and that's the reckless spending that left wisconsin with a more than $3 billion deficit. >> it is a race dominated by state issues, first and foremost the efforts to curtail union rights and benefits as he grapples with a state budget crisis and also a high-stakes test run of the ground operations that will shape battle ground wisconsin come november and so while as you can see we leaned at blue now for obama, this evening, tonight, a big republican win there tomorrow may make us think about that again. dane bash is on the ground in milwaukee. you're there on the ground talking to the people that turn out the votes tomorrow. what is the sense on election eve? >> the sense is that it is very, very close, public polls show it is extremely close, effectively in the margin of error with scott wauk we are a slight lead and the internal polling showing about the same. the way it feels before a big election, phrenetic, and that's the way it feels here. this is a recall election, very rare nationwide and they do expect turn out at the level of a presidential contest, so they expect a lot of people at the polls tomorrow. you mentioned the fact this is about the state and it is certainly a very, very polarizing time and the climax of that and pole arizing figure in scott walker and make no mistake it is absolutely if you talk to leaders from around the country and the way groups are focusing, it is very much a testing ground for the issues come november and whether as you said the state could be in play at all. >> let's talk about that. i want to show the voters, we lean for obama right now and ten electoral votes. i am sure if the republicans think they can but wisconsin in play, maybe the same dynamics in michigan and republicans think another similar state, pennsylvania in play there. if you add this up, it would be a basket for the republicans to take away and you know the history. i will switch and come over to the national map. this is the 2008 race for president. i want you to watch this state up here. i will turn this on and circle wisconsin. watch what happens as you go back in time. that's '08. that's '04. that's 2000. that's '96 and that's 1988 when michael dukakis won only ten states and ris was one of them. do republicans think a state they haven't carried since the montana dale loss in 1984, do they think a win tomorrow by the republican governor means mitt romney can compete in november? >> do they think? they're not sure. do they hope, absolutely, because look back in 2000 and 2004 i remember being here with president bush covering the re-election campaign and they came close to winning here and they haven't done well since then and what they say is they have because of this recall and also a recall for the recalls in the state house a few months ago, they have developed an infrastructure they haven't had in years and years. for example, they say they have 25 so-called victory centers, the places where they will make the calls and get out the vote. they haven't had that in a very long time. they're hoping it will translate into november. the question is without that polarizing figure in the governor here, scott walker on the ballot with mitt romney on the ballot, will that get the republican vote out against president obama? that is unclear. i was talking to a senior republican party source here who said that if i would have asked him the question just a couple months ago, he said have said, no, it will not translate and now watching the way people are pumped up here, he said maybe. >> maybe. maybe means we better pay close attention to the recall election tomorrow and watch wisconsin from there on out. before we go to break, i want to show you this is 1988 and everyone since then, wisconsin has stayed blue and just so you can see, that's what the country looked like the last time and that was 49 states for ronald reagan, lonely home state of minnesota for walter mon dale. a close look at the what they insist is a double standard on counting jobs and the judge decides to reveal the names of people who accused jerry san did you say can i of sexual abuse. ♪ [ male announcer ] they were born to climb... born to leap, born to stalk, and born to pounce. to understand why, we journeyed to africa, where their wild ancestor was born. there we discovered that cats, no matter where they are... are born to be cats. and shouldn't your cat be who he was born to be? discover your cat's true nature. purina one. he faces 52 counts of allegedly molesting and raping ten boys over a 14 year period. today sandusky's trial judge said the alleged victims will be identified in court although the judge said he hopes the news media won't report the names. stair awon a pulitzer prize covering this story and, sara, thanks for being with us. the jury selection will go forward tomorrow. sandusky's lawyers want to delay the trial. are they surprised the court said no, we're moving forward? >> they haven't said whether or not they were surprised. the only thing we got from joe amendola today is a one or two sentence e-mail that said we'll see you in court tomorrow. he has told me over and over again he wanted more time. he didn't think it was fair prosecutors got nearly three years and he only got six or seven months to build his defense. he said to me over and over i will do whatever it takes. i will be ready the day we go to trial. that day has come. we expect him to be ready. >> will mr. sandusky be in court during jury selection? does he have to be? >> we expect that he -- i guess he doesn't have to be, but usually we see defendants in court aiding the defense with jury selection. he has been pretty active in his defense so i do expect him to be here tomorrow. joe amendola told me at one point he is spending his days and nights on house arrest going through documents and evidence and helping them build a defense. i would be surprised if he wasn't here to help them pick a jury. >> sara, we'll stay in touch as this gets going. appreciate your time. let's bring in jeffrey toobin joining us from new york. the judge is ruling he will not keep secret the names of the victims. he he hopes the news media does that and i want to read you the reaction, an attorney for victim four, in tote we question why rape victims are reluctant to come forward. now we have our answer. the judge said this, courts are not customarily in the business of withholding information. secrecy is thought to be inconsistent with the openness required to assure the public that the law is being administered fairly and applied faithfully. i get what the judge is saying. i am want sure i would apply it in this particular instance. are you surprised? >> not really. what the judge said is absolutely right. the rule is that witnesses testify in public. for all the publicity this case has received, it is also true the news media has not reported any eft of the names of the alleged victims i am aware and certainly the national news media hasn't. i think we can expect those same rules to apply once the trial starts and it is part of the tradition of openness. it is part of how we conduct american trials that everybody testifies under their own name. if they are adults, and it is important to remember, all of these witnesses are now adults. there have been circumstances when children testifying have been allowed to have their identity shielded, but all of these people even if they were allegedly abused as children are now testifying as adults. >> a celebrity, a famous guy in a community that is defined by its iconic institution and i football team. re the complications, the challenges in getting a fair jury here? >> you know, it isinteresting. it is not all pointing in one direction. yes, in part penn state is a re veered and beloved institution, but it has had a complicated history in connection with this case. a lot of people are angry for not doing enough so i don't think jury selection will be that much of a problem, at least as far as penn state is concerned. obviously there is a lot of publicity about this case and those of us in the news media tend to think it is impossible to avoid the attentions of the press, but in fact when you get to jury selection in these high profile cases, we often see people haven't been following things that carefully and in fact are not biassed in one direction or another, and i expect that's what will happen here. >> keel keep in touch as well. jury selection in the jerry sandusky trial begins tomorrow. thanks. freeze ajoins us in a few moments and we'll examine the slow motion response to the crisis that claimed 12,000 lives over the past year and plus more every day. how young is too young to be on facebook? parents, you are about to find out. for three hours a week, i'm a coach. but when i was diagnosed with prostate cancer... i needed a coach. our doctor was great, but with so many tough decisions i felt lost. unitedhealthcare offered us a specially trained rn who helped us weigh and understand all our options. for me cancer was as scary as a fastball is to some of these kids. but my coach had hit that pitch before. turning data into useful answers. we're 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. >> welcome back. here is lisa with the latest news you need to know right now. >> george zimmerman is spending another night in florida jail as his attorneys work on scheduling a new bond hearing. he returned to a cell after a judge ruled he misled the court about his finances and revoked his original bond. zimmerman, a neighborly watch guard, faces a second degree murder charge in last february's shooting death of unarmed teenager trayvon martin. and tweens might soon be joining the facebook population. according to the wall street journal facebook is developing new technology that would allow children under the age of 13 to join the site with adult supervision. parents would be able to decide who their kids can friend and what applications they can use. it looks like herman cain will be inaugurated next january, just not in the white house. the former presidential candidate is replacing the retiring conservative radio host neil borts in his own show that will debut on january 21st. this isn't the first time on the air waves. cain hosted a radio show in the years leading up to his run for president. i am not sure a lot of people remember that but he did. he had a successful radio show. he's had an interesting career. >> i have been on the show many times and wish neil l in retirement. it will be if unto see herman cain. he is a very interesting guy. we'll see how he contributes to the conversation >> i think he will be good. he has a very colorful personality as you well know. i know have you met him several times. >> he is a fun, interesting guy and we'll see who wins the election first and what he has for material. that's the biggest thing in talk radio. see you in a bit. thank you. a response to democrats accusation that is the rick santorum has a double standard and britain honors queen elizabeth with stars, a sky full of fire works and a countryside full of beacons. 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