gas prices overnight jumped 3.3 cents a gallon on fears iranian oil, the world's fourth biggest stash of crude, could be disrupted. if iran made good on its threats to halt oil supplies, which it's promised to do, it would hurt consumers around the world. the strike team says it would send the united states into another recession with gas prices possibly hitting $4.75 a gallon, but it would also devastate iran. 80% of the nation's economy is linked to oil and gas. will it come to this? rudy giuliani was mayor of new york city during 9/11 and he comes "outfront" tonight. good to see you. >> nice to be here. >> let me start with this issue of the rhetoric here. do you think it's going to get to the point where iran feels threatened enough to do something like shut off its crude oil supplies? >> i do. it does have a devastating impact on them. they're very good at threatening. the threat i think you have to take as a real one and as we ratchet up pressure on them, they may very well take a step to try to see what kind of pressure they can put on us and we're going to have to be ready for it. we have to look at the bigger picture. a much more dangerous, difficult situation from our economy, national security would be a nuclear capable iran. that would be a couple of decade long problem with nuclear weapons in the hands of irrational, crazy people, which was the nightmare of the people. >> they feel threatened. they say they're going to close the oil. you can see how this becomes sort of self-fulfilling, but is a lot of this still beating the drum? last election year, bomb, bomb, bomb iran, hillary clinton was talking tough. the president has been tough. the media has been talking apt it. the candidate. is is this really rhetoric? everyone's hot and bothered. >> it is and it's jacked up 20 degrees, 30 degrees, but it's also real. >> but it is real. >> if this were not an election year or next year when obama is the president or romney or santorum, the issue will still be there because this country is determined to become a nuclear power and they have made statements that indicate they are crazy and irrational. they want to destroy israel. they set off a scheme to have an ambassador killed in washington. they've killed americans around the world. they've killed american soldiers in iraq. this is a truly dangerous regime. this is a real issue. >> how would we know how close iran is to getting a nuclear weapon? how do we even evaluate such a thing? intent is one thing. being on the process is a totally different thing. >> i don't think that's an 100% accurate science. i think it's a lot of intelligence. a lot of reliance on asaad, a lot of reliance on israeli intelligence. a lot of reliance on middle eastern intelligence. a lot of countries hate iran. you look at wikileaks and saudi arabia, they were going to kill the saudi arabian ambassador. we get a lot of information behind the scenes, so i think we have a good indication that they are nuclear capable. >> here's the question though because people are are looking back in washington an around the country, polls say americans don't want a nuclear iran. but it does feel in a lot of ways like iraq. people are saying they have this, they want to do this and we did, we went in last time on that. it was bad intelligence and a lot of americans think it was a huge mistake. so eventually, is the united states, the people, going to have to take it on faith that if america strikes, they strike without knowing what iran has? >> i think president obama has made this much more complicated being a weakling. he asked the ayatollah to talk to him. it's like writing a letter to hitler. nuts. instead, he should be convincing the iranian that he's serious. that if he had to, he'd bomb the hell out of him and they should believe this. in fact, the best way he's going to avoid bombing them is convincing them in their heads that he's capable of doing it. >> but say he did that. then iran looks at this. the trillion dollars being cut from the defense budget. the american people that are tired of war. a country that spent a trillion dollars in the last decade. that's a country that doesn't have the will, perhaps to go in. >> maybe a president without a strategy. reagan wanted to destroy the soviet union. he didn't reduce the military by 20%. he increased it. he convinced the russians and soviets that he might bomb them and pointed missiles at them. then leaks little statements like make my day, you know, and you look at the biographies of that day. even who said reagan spent us into oblivion. those people had no idea what reagan was going to do. he had the ultimate leverage. this president has given away all leverage by begging to negotiate. four years ago who predicted this? hillary clinton at the debate when he said i'll talk to him, irresponsible, immature and dangerous. >> see if you can explain a little on the president's changing tone in iran? in november, i was in iran. there was a big story -- we've asked for it back -- he was widely criticized. >> please give us back the drone, mr. ayatollah, please give me the drone back. >> here at the super bowl. >> we're not going to take any options off the table, try to prevent a nuclear arms race in a volatile region. >> here's the words that come out of his mouth. magic words and if i have to, i'm prepared to bomb them. never said that. options on the table. you can't say the word bomb them. we need a president who can say the word bomb them and can protect us from becoming a nuclear power and most importantly, they have to believe our president will do that to them. all of a sudden, that will change. we are the largest military in the world. they are a small, tiny little military power compared to us. it is ridiculous they're pushing us around this way. it's because we have a president that has no idea how to exercise leadership. >> but could they later -- some might say it's irresponsible to talk about bombing in other county tris. >> i'm using their administration. they have the case in washington in which the iranian government paid money to have the saudi arabian ambassador killed. i don't how they can say saudi arabia is a rational actor in light of that. i can't understand. >> he did say they were rational actor. >> they deny the holocaust. they want to destroy israel, attack us. they kill our soldiers and want to kill the saudi arabian ambassador in the middle of our capital. how about we take them at their word. they're crazy. they also held american hostages. this is already escalated. >> you don't think sanctions will work? by all accounts, i was in iran a year ago, were complaining that food prices were going up because the government couldn't afford subsidies because of the sanctions. >> in the history of diplomatic affairs, they've worked and not works. if sanctions were backed up by the credible possibility, the sanctions would become more effective. >> final question. what about just letting them get a nuke? we become obsessed over this line in the sand. >> the irrational part we told you about. iran's propensity for supporting terrorism. they don't have to attack us. they can hand off the nuclear material to terrorists. they could arrange more effectively what they tried to do in d.c. except it could be a nuclear weapon and then set it off in london, paris, new york. they're killing israelis right now and lying about it, so they are supplying terrorists with weapons. these people now have nuclear stuff and they can give that to terrorists and lie their way out of it because america needs proof beyond every reasonable act because we have a president who can't act. they become a very dangerous force. >> will you endorsed by the election? >> like a lot of other republicans, i like some things, not others, but i will, eventually, yes. >> you're a pro choice republican. he's someone who says not even in the case of rape or incest. >> i support rick. he supported me when i ran for mayor. i understand how to put that where it belongs. i like rick's approach to foreign policy. i like rick's approach to the economy. we have big differences on social issues. that's why i'm a moderate republican. that's why i couldn't get nominated if i ran. >> are you concerned that that's a problem for the republican party? opening the window for real third party to come in? >> absolutely. i'm concerned about how do we get back to northeast as a voting block when we seem to be not moderate enough? >> chris christie, take him on gun control. nationally, that's a problem. >> i think the biggest problem now, i think abortion you can work out. i don't like abortion. i like to reduce the number of abortions. i think a woman has a right. i think the gay rights issue is a more current one. >> yes. >> and i think beyond all the religious and social parts, it makes the party look like it isn't a modern party. it doesn't understand the modern world that we live in. >> so should they say it's up to individuals and stop saying you're against gay marriage. >> how about the states. we're a state's rights party. let states decide what they want and different states will have different conclusions about this. >> thank you so much. good to see you, sir. we're going to have more on that in a moment. and a dramatic end to the trial of a man accused of murdering his wife on their honeymoon and the president blasting the republicans and yes, a very angry chris christie today. >> i used to be a prosecutorer. i'm not going to be cross examined by you this morning. it's from centrum. it's a smaller minigel. with two of the best omegas to support my heart, brain and eyes. new pronutrients from centrum. 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[announcer:] conocophillips. yoyou u wawalklk i intna coconvnvenentitiononalal ms ststorore,e, i it't's s ry nonot t ababouout t yoy. ththeyey s sayay, , "w"weleu wawantnt a a f firirm m bebn lilie e onon o onene o of ff yoyou u wawantnt a a s sofou cacan n lilie e onon o onene o " wewe p prorovividede t thet inindidivividudualalizizatat yoyourur b bodody y neneede. wewelclcomome e toto t thehe slsleeeep p nunumbmberer . nonot t jujustst o ordrdininaran sasalele, , bubut t ththe e bn chchanangege y youour r lilifef. ththe e slsleeeep p nunumb. ththisis i is s yoyourur b bodo. yoyou u cacan n sesee e a a lile prpresessusurere i in n th. nonow w yoyou u cacan n fet hahappppenens s asas w we e rarr slsleeeep p nunumbmberer s seted alallolow w ththe e bebed d totr toto y youour r inindidivividud. wowow!w! ththatat f feeeelsls r reae. itit's's h huguggigingng m. itit's's n notot a abobt sosoftft o or r fifirm. itit's's a aboboutut s supuppope yoyou u fifindnd i it t momost. huhurrrry y toto t thehe f fif ththe e ulultitimamatete s slelr evevenent,t, w wheherere n mamattttreresssseses n nowot jujustst $ $59599.9. anand d sasaveve a an n asag 5050% % onon t the f fininalal t ofof o ourur i innnnovovatae lilimimiteted d ededititio. yoyou u cacan n adadjujustst i r yoyou u wawantnt s so o yoyoue toto w wororryry a aboboutg ththe e wrwronong g mamat. ononlyly t thrhrououghgh s. ononlyly a at t onone e ofo0 slsleeeep p nunumbmberer s. we have breaking news. the maryland state senate just approving a bill to allow gay marriage. it is the eighth state to do so. obviously, very relevant. john avlon joins us now, the former adviser to giuliani. david frum and jonathan cowen. great to have you with us. let me start with you, david frum. the quote here from rudy giuliani. issues like gay marriage make the republican party look like it isn't a modern party. let the states decide. >> he's right about his fears and they are especially powerful in these past ten days where republicans have wasted so much time in this debate over contraception. the contraception argument is maybe more painful and not just because of the threat it expresses toward the liberty of people and women especially, but if the polls are right, about 30% of young americans have postponed having a child they want because of these hard times. so it's not that people are using contraception in order to have a party. they're using contraception because they face a bleak economic future and they want children and are postponing them and republicans are debating not the bleak economic future that causes children to be postponed, but the contraception they use to postpone. >> contraception is a key point. i wanted to play this. governor christie this morning on "morning joe" tangling with "washington post" columnist, jonathan capehart. this is pretty good. >> the president and justice department have made it clear that they believe the so-called defense of marriage act is unconstitutional. they're not supporting it in any of the cases going through the court system. would you support that? >> he's told his lawyers -- >> hold on -- >> first of all, i used to be a prosecutor. i'm not going to be cross examined by you this morning. >> i'm having fun trying. >> you're going to lose. >> i would love for you to answer the question. >> here's the answer to the question. have the president of the united states show some courage. come on this program and state his position. he won't. because he wants to have it both ways. i vetoed the bill. >> jonathan, does chris christie have a point? the president said originally, marriage was between a man and a woman. now, he says his views are evolving. >> no. governor christie has a lot of great things about him, but in this instance, it's ridiculous. first of all, the president of the united states has made very clear he supports repeal of doe ma and that's a huge deal. secondly, he said my position is evolving because he understands what giuliani said earlier on the show, that americans want to allow gay couples to make the same commitment that every other couple makes. that's the modern position and it's one both parties should take. governor christie -- >> it is different than the term, marriage. >> the president's been clear about this. he said i support repeal of doma, which is a huge deal and a major step in the road towards getting marriage in this country, but he doesn't currently support marriage. the president and governor christie are wrong about that, but governor cuomo, governor o'malley and others are right about it. the future of this country, governor, mayor giuliani, the future of this country is going to be that we are on a journey where most states if not all ultimately have marriage for gay couples. that's because allowing people to make that commitment is exactly the right thing to do. >> the challenge rudy set out was for the republican party to modernize. that's a challenge they should take seriously. the big question confronting them is are we going to advance the rhetoric every place except in people's personal lives? this is untenable. so it says look, whether it's rudy's state by state solution or rebuilding the big tent to allow for greater diversity within the republican party, that will connect to the generation and expand in the maps. >> he talks about losing the northeast. >> that's right. >> the president today mocked republicans. the president talking about his energy plan and mocking the republicans for making gas prices at the pump a campaign issue. >> last week, the lead story in one newspaper said, gasoline prices are on the rise and republicans are licking their chops. that's a quote. that was the lead. licking their chops. only in politics do people root for bad news. >> all right. here's president obama back in st. louis, missouri on june 11th, 2008, talking about his rival, john mccain. >> while we're paying more than $4 a gallon for gas, the man who rails against government spending wants to spend 1.2 billion on a tax break for exxon mobil. that isn't just irresponsible. it's outrageous. >> what do you say, jonathan? >> well, look. somebody in your team does excellent research in putting those clips together. >> yes, they do. >> i'm sure the white house doesn't love your research staff. every political party when ever gas prices are going up and they're the nonincumbent party, they try to make an issue of this and in the end, presidential elections aren't just decided on gas prices. for two reasons. it's one of many indicators about the state of the economy and secondly, traditionally, in the last decade, gas prices spike in the summer, but then start coming down in the fall, so there will almost certainly be a downward trend in gas prices talking them off the table. >> now, it's been more of the same. he wants more alternative energy. he's not in love with drilling. nothing quote unquote new in this plan. >> they're expanding a new process in the atlantic, a new deal with mexico. expanding permits for nuclear power. a step to we don't fight this war towards independence, but it's an important political issue because the ideal of energy independence, that's important especially independent voters. >> david, i was joking today that every energy plan in recent american history has been a plan. how many sound bites can you pull from reagan to carter to bush saying we're going to be independent and then it never happens. >> energy brings out the worst in president obama. it's really the one of the places where he is both least most foggy in his thinking and most deceptive in his practice. the united states has made tremendous progress towards energy dependence. in 1995, americans used less oil than they did in 1978. there's a real decline in oil use over that period. oil use is sensitive to price. so for the president on the one hand to say, it's -- i -- me, i love low gasoline prices. and at the same time to say i want to move away from oil, the thing that moves you off oil is high prices and that is what the president's policy is. he pretends with government grants, he can deliver a magic motor, cheapest fuel there is. oil and coal. those are the cheapest fuels. if you don't want to use them, you're going to have to pay more and having a carbon free economy, that means more. the president won't ever say that. he says the opposite. >> but to be fair, if he puts something to encourage, right now, you're right. they're all more expensive than traditional fuels, but if you subsidize them now, they'll get cheaper and cheaper and one might end up winning. >> that may be true. it may be wrong and why the government, government makes a terrible venture capitalist. here's what you do. you tax the stuff. you make people pay more and incur -- >> oh, no, more tax at the gas pump. >> the president's thinking on this is not foggy. it's crystal clear. there's more drilling going on now. he's articulate in all of the above strategy. they're made serious investments in clean energy, some of which are going to pay off in the long run. they set very high standards so we raised the miles per gallon. this has been a center piece of their administration. they've taken it head on.