brand-new this morning, a cnn poll that is a huge flashing warning sign for president biden. support sagging among democrats. plus, the one republican who holds a clear lead over him and it might not be who you think. the flipping has begun. a worker at mar-a-lago strikes a deal with a top investigator overseeing the federal documents probe. a closer look at what the man known as trump employee number four has to offer and how much it might hurt trump's case. pennsylvania authorities are still on the hunt for the inmate who has been on the run for a week now. that is despite multiple sightings and even his escape being caught on tape. i'm kate bolduan alongside john berman and sara sidner. this is cnn news central. an incumbent democratic president losing support among democrats. voters including democrats with concerns about his age, his handling of the economy, and his son's alleged criminal activity. that is what president biden faces this morning as he prepares to leave for a major trip abroad. his approval rating is near an all-time low at 39%. nearly 70% of democrats say they want someone else running for president. 58% say biden's policies are making economic conditions worse. and that is just a small snapshot. with me now, cnn political director david chalian. these are tough numbers. >> it's a snapshot of this moment, 14 months out. it shows the work ahead that president biden and his team have if he's to be successful in re-election. you mentioned the approval rating at 39%. i want to put that in context of where that stacks up against his modern era predecessors. i want you to see here. biden is hanging down here with trump and carter. guess what? trump and carter, they didn't win their attempts at re-election. that is a danger zone there for the president. you noted the economy piece. i mean, look at the sour mood of americans. only 30% of americans in our poll say things are going well in the country. 7 in 10 say they're going badly. >> that's with inflation slowing down, with jobs numbers good, with economic growth good. he still or they still, americans still think things are going badly, besides the economy, what are voters saying? >> you mentioned it at the top, it is the age factor. we see 49% of democrats, we asked an open-ended question, what concerns you about joe biden and his candidacy? age number one. then we asked more broadly to the american people overall in this poll, are you seriously concerned that biden's age could negatively impact his ability to serve another full term? three-quarters of americans are seriously concerned about that. when have you seen three-quarters of americans agree on anything? this is a real problem for the president. current mental and physical competence. 73% of americans say seriously concerned that his age has a negative impact on that. and that husis age has a negati impact on the next generation's concerns. >> it's an issue he'll have to deal with in the campaign and the white house. let's talk about how he stacks up against the potential republican field. >> yes, so take a look. our first time this cycle doing these potential general election matchups. and what you see here, joe biden is in a margin of error nearly tied race with every republican except one, nikki haley, the former u.n. ambassador, is an outside margin of error six percentage point lead, 49% to 43%. it's pence, tim scott, ramaswamy, chris christie, all within the margin of error. no clear leaders in this race. he's going to be in a real battle. >> in polling terms, all these are exactly the same, and there's one thing that's not like the other. >> nikki haley, and i'm sure her campaign will start to make hay of this. this comes off the positive debate performance where you saw her try to broaden out her appeal a little bit, which may be having positive impact. i want to show you on energy and motivation, 61% of democrats or democratic leaners tell us they're extremely motivated compared to republicans at 71%. there's a deficit here that the biden team is going to need to make up in terms of motivation. >> it's different than it was in june. republicans are getting more motivated, democrats not so. david chalian, great to see you. kate. let's talk more about just this. cnn political commentator errol louis is joining me now, political anchor for spectrum news and host of the you decide podcast. take the numbers and set them aside for a moment. what is the trend that you're seeing in this snapshot of a moment? >> well, look, the trend is that people are upset. elections are always about the future. and so if you're the oldest president ever to have served and you have been in politics for 50 years you can make a lot of claims buyou don't necessarily come across as the guy who's going to lead us to the future. that's a big hurdle for the incumbent president. it also says to me that inflation is really taking its toll. we know because we hear from the economists, the business reporters, that inflation is coming down, but it's a rate of change. prices are high, and they're not getting higher, not necessarily getting lower. they're not getting high as quick of a rate, but they're still pretty high. and people are feeling it. >> because i was going to ask you what, what a campaign and a -- what a campaign would think is more concerning right now. the fact that voters think that biden, any candidate's policies, have made the economy worse in this moment. or how concerned democrats are about joe biden's age. >> age is the issue that really is haunting this campaign and this candidacy. this is something that we have seen before. when he was running for re-election, ronald reagan had to encounter the same thing, although he was a good deal younger than joe biden is. we never had that old of a president before, and people were really concerned. and so this campaign and this president, they're going to have to fashion a response to it. when you dive into the poll, people are not saying so much that they dislike the policies or even they dislike the candidate. they're saying they're concerned. something like 60% are saying they're concerned he won't have the energy to either finish and properly and vigorously campaign or won't have the energy and stamina to govern properly. those are absolutely valid concerns. and i'm not sure what the answer is going to be. we have never been here before, but joe biden has to answer that question. >> on the hypothetical matchups, there's one bit kind of inside of this that i think is really interesting, which is biden and trump are within the margin of error. independent voters, they break in biden's favor 47% to 38%, as do suburban women, 51% for biden, 44% for trump. is that in terms of kind of the makeup of where the support is, or where there's room for more support, is that the saving grace for biden in this moment, do you see? >> that's very much the good news for joe biden and for the democrats. i mean, democracy -- demography is destiny in a democracy and the fastest growing groups of voters are college educated voters, younger voters, communities of color, so that's where joe biden according to this poll is doing better than almost all of his republican challengers. so that's what he's going to rely on to try to go back to those communities, get them excited, get them to the polls, and every day that passes, there are more in those categories. younger people, college educated people, women. than there are any other group. so he's going to really try to ride his strength. the key is to get people energized, motivated, and out to the polls. >> i truly cannot believe you pulled it off or attempted it, you like genius of demography is destiny in a democracy. that's some varsity stuff right there. errol, good to see you. this morning, we're learning a lot more about the trump employee who testified against him in the classified documents probe. according to a new court filing, special counsel jack smith struck a cooperation deal with the mar-a-lago i.t. worker they describe as trump employee number four in their indictment. trump employee four is a witness who claims he was told, quote, the boss wanted surveillance footage deleted. cnn's sara murray is with us now. talk to us about this deal, sara. >> reporter: yeah, this is interesting because we had known something was going on beiend the scenes with taveras, this i.t. worker, because he switched attorneys and now it's clear what was happening is he was changing his story. he was now agreeing to cooperate with prosecutors under the agreement that he would not face charges as part of, again, this mar-a-lago documents investigation where trump and a couple employees are facing charges. as you pointed out, we learned from the indictment that taveras is in conversation with carlos de oliveira about what to do about the security footage at mar-a-lago, de oliveira is explaining the boss wants the servers deleted and you can sense in this exchange the hesitation from taveras who says he doesn't know if he has the authority to do that, he doesn't even know how he would do that. again, this could be a very interesting cooperator for jack smith's team, not necessarily about direct conversations with donald trump, but about conversations with other employees around mar-a-lago at the time about efforts to carry out donald trump's wishes, john. >> some of the most compelling television yesterday besides this show right here was watching this georgia hearing play out before our eyes because there were cameras in the courtroom for the first time. and actually, there was a fair amount laid out for everyone to see. what were the most significant takeaways? >> yeah, there was a decent amount of angz and we saw what was a very decisive state court judge in that hearing yesterday. kenneth chesebro and sidney powell, two of the attorneys who worked on allegedly helping donald trump overturn the 2020 election results, didn't want to go to trial together. the judge decided they did not make a compelling argument and they would both move ahead to trial in october of this year. but he sounded pretty skeptical about the possibility of the district attorney's office getting what they want, which is to put all of these 19 defendants in the case, including donald trump, on trial in october this year. he said it seemed a bit unrealistic. he raised the issue about mark meadows and other defendants who are trying to move their case to federal court. we also learned from the district attorney's office a better sense of what their case could look like. they said that it would take at least four months to lay out this case, that's excluding jury selection, and it would include roughly 150 witnesses. so a sprawling case at trial to go along with what was this sprawling indictment. we also heard from former president, you know, the most famous defendant in this case, in another interview, saying that his team plans to put forward motions to dismiss in this case. we have not seen those motions yet but they still have some time. >> chesebro and powell, late next month. everyone else, not so much probably. sara murray, great reporting. thanks so much. and sarah. >> with us now is former federal prosecutor from the southern district of new york, jessica roth, to discuss some of this. let's start with this testimony, this flipping, if you will. how damaging might this be to donald trump's case? obviously, he is the target here, the ultimate target here as the former president. >> according to the allegations in the superseding indictment, which is the one that included for the first time mr. de oliveira, the property manager at mar-a-lago, this individual, taveras, who apparently struck a nonprosecution agreement with the special counsel, has direct information about contacts with nauta and de oliveira, including requests he delete the surveillance footage and the statements saying the boss wants the surveillance footage deleted. understood to be in context and reference to mr. trump. so he doesn't appear to have had direct communication with trump. but he does offer evidence of communications that would likely be admissible in court as a statement of a coconspirator of the president's against him. and i think the fact he's cooperating really strengthens the special counsel's hand vis-a-vis nauta and de oliveira. although it was clear that they were providing information, the fact that he's now entered into an agreement shows he's working in a more cooperative, steady, consistent fashion with the special counsel and the special counsel has agreed not to prosecute him if he agrees to continue cooperating. he helps increase the odds that perhaps one of the other two defendants named with trump might themselves flip. that's what we're really waiting to see in terms of the next document no that could strengthen the case. >> one domino has to fall. somebody has to be the first, so he is at least one of the first to decide to change attorneys, his attorney, by the way, was also nauta's attorney, and now he has decided to change that. i do find it interesting because he retracted, according to the doj, prior false testimony. that could have been a charge against him, correct? >> yes. if he in fact perjured himself before the grand jury when he said he had no information about any efforts to delete surveillance footage or any incriminating information in that investigation, if he said that under oath, which according to doj he said the first time he testified, that constitutes a federal crime of perjury. we haven't seen the nonprosecution agreement that was referenced in yesterday's filing but my understanding is he would probably be promised not to be prosecuted for that perjury and perhaps any other crimes that were uncovered in the investigation in exchange for his truthful cooperation and testimony if needed at trial against the others who have been charged in the mar-a-lago case. >> and he has to be able to do that throughout, because the minute that stops they could then bring charges. >> that's the leverage now that the special counsel has against him. >> i want to further move to the case in georgia. you have this enormous trial. i have seen, i think, the most number of people i have seen tried is five all at once. and each of them had at least one attorney, sometimes two. 19 people including the former president, who you know will have more than one attorney in there, i don't even know how they're going to fit them all. 150 witnesses we're hearing from d.a. fani willis, that's the number of witnesses they have. these are the 19 you're seeing on the screen who could potentially be going to trial, potentially together. is this possible to put this all over a four-month period? >> well, the four-month period i think everybody at this period acknowledges is unlikely in terms of the entirety of the case. there is president for having what's known as a mega trial with this many people, but it's extremely rare, very unwieldy and not preferred. but there are a couple things that are likely to happen between now and the trial date, including we might see some dominos fall in this case as well. we may see people enter guilty pleas, they may flip. we also may see some people removed to federal court. we're waiting on the judge's decision in federal court. it's too soon to say whether in fact there will be 19 or 17 even if we take out the two who seem to be going first in october. i think it's too soon to say what other decisions need to be made about cutting it down into multiple trials. >> we have seen fani willis do a mega trial, if you will, with 12 people when it comes to the teachers situation there in georgia. but this is a bigger case with a lot more people who would be testifying. thank you so much. i appreciate you coming on and getting us through all that. there's a lot to get through. kate. coming up for us, an american is trapped in a cave more than 3,000 feet below the earth's surface. and now the new details coming in of the complicated rescue operation under way to save him. plus, first, he scaled a prison wall to break out of prison. and now, he's been on the run for a week. the big question this morning is how could this happen at the same facility twice in one year? and the wild allegations also in a new book about tech billionaire elon musk. claims that musk cut communications to her starlink satellites near crimea to disrupt a ukrainian attack on the russian navy. we'll be back. fifth generation montana ranchers. there'e's a story in every piece of land. run with us on a john deere gator™ xuv and start telling yours. if you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan that's smart now... i'm 65. and really smart later i'm 70-ish. consider an aarp medicare supplemt insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. with this type of an, you'll know upfront about how ch your care costs. which makes anning your financial future easier. so call unitedhealthcare today to learn more about the only plans of their kind with the aarp name. and set yourself and your future self up with an aarp medicare supplement plan from unitedhealthcare. and mine's unlisted. try boost® high protein with 20 grams of protein for muscle health versus 16 grams in ensure® high protein. boost® high protein. now available in cinnabon® bakery-inspired flavor. learn more at boost.com/tv ♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. 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(psst psst) flonase. all good. right now, rescuers in turkey are racing to save an american man stuck deep inside a cave. this cave right now. mark dickey is more than 3,000 feet below the earth's surface. he's 40-year-olds old. he's an experienced cave explorer and caving instructor even who has been doing this for more than 30 years, but he fell ill, and now can't get himself out. officials say the rescue operation could take days. cnn's you mana karachi has the latest on this complicated and risky mission. >> we don't really know the full details of what really happened but what we know from the turkish caving federation is american caver mark dickey who was part of a local and international research team fell ill last weekend or early this week, more than 3,000 feet or 1,000 meters from the entrance of turkey's third deepest cave. the hungarian cave rescue service that is involved in his rescue operation right now say he's lost a lot of blood as a result of gastrointestinal bleeding. he got six units of blood and was stabilized, according to the turkish federation. they say his condition is continuing to improve. he's stable, able to walk on his own. and he's right now at base camp, and that is still more than 3,000 feet from the surface. and it's a real logistical challenge to get him out of there. there are more than 100 rescuers from turkey's emergency management agency, including the u.s., bulgaria, hungary, poland, croatia and many others involved in this complex rescue effort. mark dickey, according to his own bio, is a very experienced caver. he's been caving in 20 u.s. states and ten countries since the '90s. he's a rescuer himself and a rescue instructor and the chief of the new jersey initial response team focusing on cave, cliff, and abandoned mine rescue. the turkish caving federation says it takes 15 hours for an experienced caver to reach the surface in ideal conditions. and this cave has really narrow and winding passages making it hard for them to get him out on a stretcher, and they're