ahead, 477 for what? the lopsided prisoner exchange between israelis and palestinians taking place overnight. hamas calls is a great day. some israelis say the price for a captured soldier is just too high. a live report just ahead. and i'm christine romans, getting congress to pass the jobs bill piece by piece. some say the president's trip is more about one job. saving his own. now president obama is responding on this "american morning." -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com good morning to you. it is tuesday, october 18th. welcome to "american morning." a little chill in the air here in new york, but not where carol is. >> out in the desert, carol costello is getting ready for politics in the desert. joining us live this morning, good morning, carol. >> oh, good morning. you know the best thing about las vegas right at this moment? >> gambling? >> besides that. it's 3:00 in the morning here, and there's a starbucks open. >> at a casino. >> i'm loving it. and there are people around. yes. it's just like at 8:00. i love las vegas. it is a fitting location, too, for tonight's western republican presidential debate, because this is the city that makes or breaks fortunes every single day. a lot of preparation has gone into tonight's event co-hosted by cnn and the republican western leadership conference. in just three days, a 45,000 square foot set built from the ground up at the venetian center, including two humongous monitors, an enormous chandelier and seating for 400 people. look at that. those people working around the clock since friday. quite the political circus here in las vegas. of course, minus the white tent. tonight at 8:00 eastern, a field of seven will be in the glare, the las vegas spotlight, highlighted by mitt romney and herman cain, the long shot. look at numbers. romney and cain now in a statistical dead heat with romney add 26% and cain at 25%. rick perry and ron paul well back rounding out the top four. newt gingrich finished fifth with 8% followed by michele bachmann and rick santorum. jon huntsman is last. he's boycotting tonight. let's bring in paul steinhauser live from las vegas his morning. have you been to the starbucks that's open this morning? >> not yet, but i'm going. >> i almost dumped it on myself. let's talk about herman cain, because it's just amazing. it seems he has holding pow are. does he? >> gone from zero to 60 in every poll including ours. why is he surging in the polls? we'll look at numbers pup said, these are brand new numbers, out moments ago. which candidate among republicans only is more likely to get the economy moving again? look who's on top. herman cain. seven points ahead of mitt romney. who's the most likable candidate? once again, herman cain, 34%. slightly ahead of mitt romney. you can see rick perry pretty far down. two reasons he's zursurged to t top. the next number. you can see. who's most likely to win the nomination. republicans say by far -- by far -- mitt romney at 51%. cain at 18%. perry at 14% and which can win against obama next year, mitt romney. cain a distant second. >> talking to people around here, they say herman cain is funny, says things in a way we can understand him. we kind of like his 9-9-9 plan but don't get it yet. i talked to the mayor of las vegas. she said, yeah, the 9-9-9 plan sounds good, but seriously we need a plan that starts now. ste doesn't believe the 9-9-9 plan would do that. >> nevada has highest unemployment in the nation. when the debate paps you're going to see herman cain coming under more scrutiny. >> we know herman cain made a few gaffes in the last few days. he has to be careful. can't be quite so plain spoken anymore. >> he has definitely been under the spotlight. >> talk about jon huntsman. he won't be at tonight's debate because he's protesting nevada moving up its caucus. >> that's why he's placing all his chips, a gambling term, on new hampshire. if new hampshire moves its date, he's not taking part here and not even in the debate. more news on the primary caucus calendar. iowa announcing yesterday they're going on january 3rd, as we thought. take a look at calendar. january 3rd, iowa. january 14th nevada. new hampshire, first in the nation, primary's boxed in. saying to nevada, unless you move back we are threatening to move our primary to december. we'll see how that falls. >> and saying i'm all for it, candidates should be here talking to people in nevada, because this is a microcosm of the nation. different nationalities are here. people from all sorts of socioeconomic backgrounds. she says you can't say that about new hampshire or iowa. candidates here talking face to face and you move that caucus up they're more likely going to be here for a long time. >> they want to be in the primary caucus, seven of the eight candidates here tonight. talking about the calendar. talk about november. cnn just afounding overnight, a brand new debate. yes another debate. national security and foreign policy in the spotlight. d.c. think tankses, and the heritage foundation, november 15th. >> can't way. exciting, paul steinhauser, thanks. stay with cnn all morning for the best political coverage on television. at 8:45 eastern i will be joined by ron paul who just released his big economic plan. he says he'll make $1 trillion in cuts to government spending and balance the nation's budget in his first year in office. a tall order. we'll ask him about it. join us tonight at 8:00 eastern for live coverage of the western republican presidential debate. anderson cooper will moderate and i'll be there, too, and we'll bring all the analysis to you tomorrow morning on "american morning." >> a great lineup, including ron paul but others on politics all morning. see you in a minute. for a second day in a row president obama hits the road to tout his jobs plan. the president will be speaking in north carolina and virginia. these, of course, are two states critical to his re-election hopes, and while republicans accuse the president of campaigning on the taxpayers' ti dime, the president insisted he's just trying to put americans back to work. >> look -- i -- i appreciate the four more years, but right now i'm thinking about the next 13 months. because, yes we've got an election coming up, but that election's a long way away and a lot of folks can't wait. a lot of folks are living paycheck to paycheck. a lot of folks are living week to week. >> he said his jobs plan maybe altogether couldn't get it in congress. take apart to pass it one by one. if that makes it easier to do their job. the president's re-election campaign, reaching a milestone. it received financial contributions from 1 million grass roots donors now. this is happening right now. a highly historic, highly controversial prisoner swap overnight between israel and hamas. take a look. live pictures from ramallah, this is mahmoud abbas, head of the palestinian authority. the israelis have freed 477 palestinians. look at that crowd. they've freed 477 palestinian prisoners today in exchange for one captive israeli soldier. another 550 palestinians are due to be released in another two months. meantime, that israeli soldier, gilad shalit, is returning home as a national hero after five years in hamas captivity. he was 19 years old when he was captured five years ago. cnn kevin flower is following the developments live in jerusalem for us right now. it looks festive on both sides, kevin. what's the situation? >> reporter: well, five years and four months almost after the day that gilad shalit was kidnapped he was released from hamas captivity today, crossed into egypt and then into israel. a hero's welcome here in israel. he has been sort of at the center of a very public campaign by his family and by many supporters in israel to have him released for years now. there's been this public campaign. there have been on and off again negotiations to come up with some sort of deal. finally that deal was accepted last week. it's a deal that sees, as you said, over 1,000 palestinian prisoners being released. a lot of good feelings on the palestinian side, in the gaza strip and ramallah, the pictures we just showed, some of these palestinian prisoner, coming home, but on both sides, it's tempered by the fact that this is a deal that certainly satisfies some people, but not all. there are many israelis who say the price being paid for gilad shalit's return is simply too high. that there are terrorists being released who could attack israeli citizens again, and on the palestinian side, a sense that there is still thousands of palestinian prisoners languishing in israeli jails who they believe should be released right away, ali. >> kevin, on both sides, those who don't think this was a fair deal, is that a minority on the fringes? do most palestinians and israelis think that this was, that they got something good out of this deal? >> reporter: i think so. i think both sides at this point -- the positive emotions are overshadowing the naysayers at this point. it is really hard to underestimate the impact that the captivity of gilad shalit has had on israeli society. he has become sort of an icon of early soldiers successive governments working incredibly hard to try and get him returned, and, likewise, for the palestinian side. to see this many prisoner, almost 20% of palestinian prisoners released in a two-month period is quite an achievement. >> let us know if anything further develops we'll get you back on. kevin flower for cnn. and the power couple. mr. goodman served three terms at the city's mayor then his wife took over. do you think the gop will deliver under those bright vegas lights? >> carol is live there, as you know, all this morning. tonight's the big debate and the save of a lifetime. a little boy dangling from the window of a burning building. a firefighter waiting below with open arms. we'll tell you what happened, and hear from the hero. it's 13 minutes after the hour. 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dreams. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side. i tell you what i can spend. i do my best to make it work. i'm back on the road safely. and i saved you money on brakes. that's personal pricing. test. . welcome back. we are live in las vegas for tonight's big western republican debate. take a look at the venetian. doesn't it look beautiful with that big anderson cooper head plastered all over it? seriously now, few places have been hit harder by the recession. under the lights, that city that leads the nation in foreclosure, also in unemployment, people are looking for big ideas tonight. one is betting for the city's future that would be las vegas' past mayor and its current mayor. >> first acquired the building, acquired it for $1. >> reporter: the bill and hillary of las vegas, only some say better. >> don't tell them i think so, too. >> reporter: the flamboyant and charismatic oscar served at mayor here for three terms. yes, his trademark, show girls. since the wildly popular oscar could not run a fourth term his wife carolyn carried on running for mayor herself and winning. yes, they're glad republicans are debating here but doubt they'll hear a plan that will create jobs now. >> we're first responders and haven't heard any idea yet that will bring this community back to where it was as far as job creation. >> reporter: but mayor carolyn goodman is trying. she's investing city money in health care facilities, a performance arts center and museums. in fact, we're standing in what will be las vegass new mob museum. as in gangsters. promotion has already begun. that's mayor oscar on tv's "csi." >> everybody raise their glass and we'll say, salute. >> reporter: yes. goodman gets shot in hollywood's version of vegass soon to be mob museum. but as they say, any bub listy is good publicity if it brings attention to a city desperate to recover. i'll let new on a secret. mayor goodman didn't actually die in that "csi" episode. he'll be back to live another day on tv. that's just fine with his wife, the current mayor goodman. she has a tall order, ali and christine. she wants las vegas known for something other than gambling. she wants people to come leer to see a great symphony or an art gallery that's admired around the world, or something like this mob museum that's in downtown las vegas as opposed to the strip. that's a tall order. she says, yeah, we love gambling and all of that, but we need to diversify to get people back to work and get a new kind of tourism into las vegas. >> i think that's starting to happen, carol. had i think of vegas, and i've been there a few times. people go to shows. people make dinner reservations well ahead of time. they're looking -- and i'm one ever them. i gamble for 15 seconds. no kidding. i don't really like gambling, and i like to do all the other stuff. >> because you're responsible. there are other things, too. great hiking an hour outside of the city. lake meade is quite beautiful. go to the hoover dam and see that wonderful bit of technology. they're teallying all of these other things in order to get people back. what they want from the federal government, they like the infrastructure bank. they want to put money into the infrastructure to get the construction workers long out of work here back to work. >> all construction workers. a big housing boom there. i go out with the guys, a motorcycle ride. the grand canyon, it's really very nice out there. carol, we will be back with you momentarily. good, busy morning for carol in las vegas. for all of us, of course, a big night with the republican debate coming up tonight. and a real inferno outside of boston. a grandmother holding a young boy out of her third window and losing her grip. so the firefighter, thankfully, this guy was there to make the catch. the 6-year-old boy landed right in his arms. look at this. >> i knew she wasn't going to be able to hold him forever. i said, go ahead and drop. >> crazy. >> wow. >> a dozen people hurt including two firefighters and a police officer. they arrested the man too started the blaze by cutting a gas line and igniting it around 1:00 a.m. monday morning. that's gutsy. cutting a gas line and lighting it on fire. he's lucky to be alive, and criminal and not a good thing to do. >> rob marciano in the extreme weather center. >> sounds like a hollywood script. speaking of a script, check this out out of -- out of texas. sorry. lubbock, texas. talk about a little bit of a brain, you know -- we are looking at a dust storm out of lubbock, west texas, yesterday. winds were gusting to near hurricane strength as a cold front passed through the area. not a whole lot of rain but a lot of wind that kicked up the dust, knocked out power. did some damage. moved some planes around at the airport. this haboob moved through rapidly and shut down the city at least temporarily with also some of the sparks and power lines that dropped. there were wildfires set as well. windy conditions across texas as well. with this cluster of thunderstorms, some of which are severe across parts of louisiana, heading across the midsouth and rainfall as far north as indiana and rain across parts of south florida. this tropical wave we talk about yesterday. probably won't get caught up in a whole lot. interact with land. a small chance of becoming a tropical system. regardless, tropical moisture teams with this guy creating a mess heading up over the east coast in the form of heavy rain. here you go. the two get together. the mid-atlantic sees it first and it moves up towards the northeast and then chilly conditions behind this. temperatures drop into the 20s and some cases 30 degrees and a lot of folks feeling the fall effect. guys, back up to you. >> we're going to get 20s and 30s? >> you'll get temperatures that will drop 20 degrees. >> i see. got it. okay. >> don't need to break out the winter parka just yet. >> be in the 30 this morning? probably? >> at least at night. coming up, alarming trend for americans with credit cards. that's right. we'll "mind your business" on that coming up next. it's 22 minutes after the hour. 26 after the hour. "minding your business" this morning. stocks, a steep sell-off. the nasdaq and s&p 500 all drops and trading slightly over, the dow, because of lingering concerns about europe's debt crisis and worries about bank earnings. in less than an hour, bank ever america which has been running unbillions in mortgage related losses will report its third quarter earnings and we'll hear from rival bank goldman sachs and tech giants apple, yahoo! and intel report earnings later today, so will coca-cola. speaking of apple, it's breaking sales record with the iphone 4s. the company sold 4 million since its launch friday. more than twice as many as the iphone 4 during its opening weekend last year, and a surtax on people making $1 million or more. that portion of the plan provideses $35 billion in aid to states to help preserve or create jobs for teachers and first responders. weren't of the men who helped with president obama auto bailout has a new job saving the u.s. postal service. ron bloom hired by the national association of letter carrier, the union. the postal service could soon run out of money and is looking to slash $20 billion by 2015. appears americans are having trouble keeping up with their credit card bill. late payments up slightly last month. that would make it the first month since february of 2009, the depth of the recession, so many issuers reported an uptick in late payments. "american morning" will be right back after the break. but did you know they're good for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark from the american heart association for foods low in saturated fat and cholesterol. so they're good for my family, and for yours. heart smart idaho potatoes. always look for the grown in idaho seal. so if i didn't know better i'd say you're having some sort of big tire sale. yes we are. yeah. how many tires does ford buy every year? over 3 million. you say you can beat any advertised price on tires? correct. anywhere? yes. like this price? yes. riously? yes what about this one? i'll beat it. this one? s we will. right, i only have one more question for you...this one? (laughing) yeah. get $100 rebate when you buy four tires. 100 bucks! only at your ford dealer. 3 million tires. 11 major brands, fiona's kind-of-nice. i don't know why you're not here. i'm not a line item on a budget. and i'm definitely not a pushover. but i am a voter. so washington... before you even think about cutting my medicare and social security benefits... here's a number you should remember. 50 million. we are 50 million seniors who earned our benefits... and you will be hearing from us... today and on election day. ♪ each day was fueled by thorough preparation for events to come. well somew