nations to say they'll join beijing despite u.s. warnings. good morning you're watching worldwide exchange. the business confident rising to 103.7 versus consensus 99.8 and better than expected. this is a rise in all fronts. the march overall business confidence index rising to 103. consumer confidence that index has risen to 110. back in line with expectations and this is versus february of 107 rises in the month of february. let's have a look how the euro dollar is trading this morning. a little bit much pressure as a result of the uncertainty around the greek story. euro dollar changing hands at 108.30. we're down by a half of 1%. >> the story has been the strengthening of the euro over the past couple of days. it's come off the highs. it did reach 110 last week it was a two-week high against the dollar. take a step back and look at the euro it lost about 20% some analysts say. a big boost for export growth here. >> absolutely. a lot of question marks. and our guest later on in the show david bloum from hsbc said it is the end of the bull run party. we'll ask why in a couple of minutes. air strikes in yemen laud by saudi arabia overnight left 25 people dead and 88 wounded. according to the health ministry area of the nation. saudi arabia still deciding whether to send ground tops to yemen. speaking to meet the press, the country's ambassador said saudi arabia was committed to completing the air campaign until the president was back in power. meanwhile former afghan president hamid karzai said the use of force will not resolve the situation in yemen. he spoke to cnbc. i hope this whole unfortunate situation in yemen will be resolved through talk and negotiations rather than. we've seen it in afghanistan, we've seen it in other parts of the world. military rarely rarely brings about solutions. especially where there are people involved in a country and there are sentiments on both sides. we have the example in-- some western countries have called war on terrorism for the last so many years. eventually it is taking negotiations to take things to settle. that's what i'm hoping for in yemen. >> the new president of afghanistan, mr. ghani, was recently in the united states as you know it was almost a revelation when he said that is islamic state is starting to make incursions into your country, afghanistan. they're sending forward troops or forces. what can you tell us about the situation now with regard to is in afghanistan? because you're six months out of office but obviously you're on top of the situation there. >> terrorism radicalism and the associated element of insecurity that come with it. no matter the name they come al qaeda or isis or any other name occurs to all of us. my experience shows that such troops organizations with extreme radical ideologies and brutality on their mind and on their hands will not be able to operate. cannot operate without backers. i don't buy the idea they have their own revenues. >> adding to the chaos in yemen six world powers to reach a nuclear deal. the two sides continue talks in switzerland over the weekend but so far unable to agree in a number of key issues including how many years tehran should suspend the nuclear work. israel and republican lawmakers warned against a deal with iran. no surprise there. hadley our middle eastern correspondent joins us with more. how close are we to a deal? we have the self-imposed deadline in two days. are they going to make it? >> i think they're working hard to make it. what is going to be interesting is the framework they get. what you is here is not just the republicans in congress but many democrats want to be involved in property says. they'll do anything to do that. two pieces of legislation one of which coming up in shortly in april is backed by democrats and republicans. it would allow congress to put a hold on everything and say we don't like the agreement. we can disagree with you about basically lifting sanctions. that's something congress can do. they can make it very difficult and possibly at least put the brake on any deal going forward. that's a problem. >> how much is the saudi-led air strikes complicate the situation more. >> it's interesting to watch what is happening here. you have the united states working on the, you know, deal with iran and something unprecedented. something that 30 years ago you wouldn't have majd would be possible. on the other hand they're not only allowing the saudis and the rest of the gulf countries with egypt to do the strikes in yemen and be forceful but they're supporting it. you have them playing both sides of the issue. in the middle east as we say strange bedfellows it makes sense but it is a bit distressing for most americans. what is more dangerous now? what is more dangerous terrorism? nuclear issues? it's difficult for people to get a handle on the situation. >> the other question is will saudi arabia send ground troops to yemen or not? >> they refused to say whether they're going to do it yet. you have to remember it's something we've been talking about for a couple of days. to them it's their issue of security. they don't want the area to be taken over by iran-backed troops of any variety. so for them it's a security issue more than anything else. look around the border they have what is happening in iraq what is worrying about as well. it plays into the oil prices what we saw happen on thursday. you saw the new spike and down again. what we were talking about over the last couple of hours is essentially what you have here is a situation a lot of unknown knowns. you know it's going to be bad you just don't know how bad it will be in terms of the regional conflict. inevitably inevitably, one i think the united states can look to they have forces in the persian gulf. we're there to be a scenario if they need to protect the oil fields. but it's just difficult to assess right now where we are. >> and fears of an oil supply disruption that initially sent prices higher on thursday. they came off the highs on friday. a weekly gain for the price of oil. thank you for your update. french oil giant has evacuated expatriot staff from the career sites in yemen. the locations have not yet been impacted by military raids. gas production has been reduced to only supply neighboring communities. they said that staff at the lng plant has been reduced to the minimum necessary. and let's turn our attention to greece. the country said talks with international creditors are ongoing though a deal remains elusive. athens submitted a collection of reform ideas rather than a concrete set of proposals. a list is expected today. there is speculation suggesting april 20th is the day greece officially runs out of cash. others says it is april 9th. a look at the athens stockings change down by 1.2%. david, a pleasure speaking with you. what is really feeding into the euro dollar exchange rate? is it the greek worries or just all ecb and qe? >> well, now it's neither because it's going up. the euro is trying to find a base now having been at 105 and slightly below 110. it's settling down trying to find the right base. as you said at the top of the show you talked about the dollar bull run. an internet dollar bull run. we did so a week ago. >> i know but you said a further rise in the dollar exchange rate if it were to happen would be instructive. tell us why. >> i think a dollar rally from here, a powerful dollar rally would be destructive. so far it's been a thing of beauty. it's been associated with stronger equity in the u.s. lower bonds doing well assets like property doing well. the dollar was a medium of exchange in which -- beautiful. now we talk about the situations worries about result worries about greece. was the dollar going to rally. something is going to go wrong somewhere. that's a destructive dollar rally. i can't see the dollar rallying from here for beautiful reasons associated with all assets going up. if you're odd dollar bullish you have to ask questions. what is my asset elevation choice? it's a nasty business. we've seen the stronger dollar pulling down equities in the u.s. that's part of the zektive dollar. imagine another 20%. >> when will they raise rates? there's speculation it could be delayed to 2016. if that's the case what happens to the dollar then? >> if we wait to 2016 i'll be licking my chops. but that's not what we're looking for. we think september is most likely. we've seen the market go june october, now probably september. a delay works in my favor. it's not something i'm calling for but you excited me. >> david, the market seems less concerned about a potential greek exit. you're looking at the euro stock 600 index better than 50 percent year to date. focus on the benefits of the weaker euro and the manufacturing data came out last week. can qe and the rebound in growth offset the negative implication of a potential cigarette district? >> no. we're in a new ball game. i don't like talking about it. as you know loose lips sink ships. so i don't believe in it. i don't believe it will happen. if it happens it's a complete game-changer. i think it would be destructive for financial markets regardless of anything. but i don't actually believe that's going to happen. otherwise i wouldn't be calling it into the dollar bull run it would be potentially, as i said you want the dollar to go up. be careful what you wish for. that's a destructive reason. but that would be potentially devastating, i think, to financial markets and i don't believe it's anyone's interest and i don't think that is going to happen. >> okay. david, we've established you have the con trarn call. you're no longer a believer in the continued bull run of the dollar. what about market consensus. it seems the market too, is getting a little bit fatigued by that dollar bull run story by the weakness in the euro. maybe the strength in european equities. what are the new consensus trades for the second quarter, you think. >> it's one of the reasons we turned against the dollar. it became massively consensus. to the point where people were having an arm's race to get a lower euro dollar forecast. you hear 90, 85, and now 80. that's wrong. that's like the end of a bull market rather than anything else. and positioning was so long of the dollar. everybody is one way. i was a cheerleader for the dollar bull run. there's nothing wrong with that. everything seems priced into that. we've seen the kind of things where everyone is thinking one way. everyone is positioned one way. you know it can go wrong. you spoke about better european data. why were we ignoring better european data? it just didn't make sense to us. just like when oil was rising we questioned it. the yen went up a long way market questions it. i think we got to the point where qe runs the course in terms of the currency for europe and we'll see if it will run the course in terms of equity. if we get a begin wen recovery in the eurozone you'll get rising equities with a rising euro. at the moment the trend is to own european equities on a hedge basis. the question you should own them on an unhedged basis. if there then the euro is going up and the techty market has to run the course. >> we'll see if you're right. david bloom, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. we're one hour 50 minutes until the new trading day. the stocks europe 600 is pushing up higher. why are we seeing the rebound? it already started on friday. we saw the late session rebound in the u.s. markets on the back of some of yellen's comments. in is also, a turn around from the degree of profit taking we saw earlier last week and the accompanied by a bout of volatility. it seems as though risk appetite and calm is creeping into the markets. it's a holiday short week with good friday on friday. let's have a look at bond markets. we're seeing bond markets little changed. these are european markets. ftse 100 pushing higher about.25 of 1%. the xetre dax had fallen 5% but now it's above the 12,000 level. this is the best performing equity market so far this year. cac 40 up by 1.2%. now let's get to the bond markets. we see bond markets little change this morning. we are seeing the ten year below the 2% level. a little change after yellen's comments in san francisco. we're seeing the ten year german yield below 0.2% and the 10 year at 5.66. i want to check in on commodity markets. let's see how oil is doing as traders price in a nuclear deal between iran and the rest of the world. brent crude continuing the losses up by 0.8%. wti sitting at 4812. remember crude did fall by 5% in friday's trading session and spot gold off by 0.8 percent. we are in singapore. how are we doing? >> thank you very much. pretty solid performance overall lead by mainland china equities by 2.5%. all clarity from beijing over the martin silk road initiative. it benefitted the infrastructure stocks. over the weekend the government pboc central bank did suggest that more easing was coming and he they said the scope for further policy moves by the central banks. the markets liking those two streams of news. elsewhere we got worsening marc data from japan. missed by a wide margin indeed or the market seems to take it in stride 19,411. a lot of positions just before the end of the quarter for japanese equities. s&p asx off by almost 2%. the resources were leading it low. that's where we stand. back to you. >> thank you very much. and coming up on world wide exchange. a bigger threat than putin. we tell you about the latest poll that suggests republican seat president obama is a -- >> is it time to sell chinese banks? why owning the sector may be under threat. and tim cook joins a chorus of leaders warn -- the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. after all, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned... every day... using wellness to keep away illness... and believing that a single life can be made better by millions of others. healthier takes somebody who can power modern health care... by connecting every single part of it. for as the world keeps on searching for healthier... we're here to make healthier happen. optum. healthier is here. welcome back to the show. let's get you caught up on the top stories in the corporate front. russian businessman has rejected the renegotiated merger terms between wholesome. this according to several reports over the weekend. stephan joins us at france and down by 1.1% on the back of the news. it's not just cement. is it going to go through? >> we don't know. obviously there are a lot of hopes it will go through. the second largest shareholder with 10.8% stake. he reportedly criticized new terms of the deal. it would be the second shareholder to disagree with the plan. on friday another major shareholder expressed similar concerns saying it would need too know the name of the future ceo before making a decision on whether or not it be would support the deal. two weeks ago they agreed in a new merger deal -- will give the swiss make aeror a bigger chunk. it also includes a new government structure the ceo of the two companies will become a nonexecutive co-chairman. we don't know the name of the future chief executive. it will be announced later and submitted by the board. there is a question still. >> stephan, that saga continues. thank you very much for that update. shares in italian e mers fashion company limit up after a report from reuters said it could be set to acquire this week. amazon was in talks to buy the high endon line retailer. it seems like a bidding war going on. meanwhile world duty free shares sharply lower and off by 8.3% after agreeing to be bought by swiss travel retailer. this would value the italian travel retailer at $3.6 billion. it will finance the deal with a mix of debt and equity. we have more on the story from milan. why are shares in the company down so heavily? >> well, you know, first of all, the deal was in the pretty much given as a done deal. that was being the first reason. the second is the fact that this price tag of $10.25 euros came in at a 22% premium on the average six month prize but at a discount of 6.5% on friday's level. so you're seeing the stock down here this morning down by 8.3%. it has been performing that way all morning. again, this was pretty much a deal that was considered to be a done deal. you'll remember that world duty free was spun off a year ago and this was what the family wanted to ultimately do was to sell their stake. that is a 50.1% stake at 10.25 euros. so for the family that is bringing in 1.3 billion euros. this will create a leader in travel retail worth 3.6 billion euros. we'll continue to watch it. and that is on the rumors of the deal they could be merging. you remember they bought it for 392 million euros in 2010. they have not turned a profit. that is 700 million euros in s ins in s ins in s ins in revenue. that company is profitable. they are growing double digit. it could mean a strong tie up for fashion retail. but we'll see whether the rumor is confirmed or not. on the market we're higher by 1.16%. back to 0 you. >> thank you very much. in italy this morning and last but not least we want to show you what shares are in begin dale are doing. up almost 14% after the struggling outscorer agreed to sell for 637 million pounds. quindell announced a major management shakeup including the resignation of four directors. thank you. still to come on the show tensions run high in nigeria as technical glitches delay a result in the closely watched presidential election. we're live in lagos with the latest after the break. saudi arabia said it will continue bombing yemen until the country's president is back in power. officials add they're still considering whether to send a in ground troops. geopolitical attentions heightened with the iranian nuclear powers world powers and tehran are in disagreement over a number of key issues ahead of tomorrow's deadline. >> chinese stocks hitting near seven-year high. >> denmark, russia and australia become the latest nations will join the beijing asian investment lead investment bank. the and we're live in lagos as the election results trickle in after a hard fought election marred by technical glitches and violence. let's get straight to some u.k. housing data. we got u.k. mortgage approvals and hit a six-month high for the month of february rising if are third straight month. it suggests that the housing market is picking up steam again after we saw a little bit of a slow down. and that's interesting given that we are going into elections. we are a little bit more than one month away and you would think with uncertainty around the policies that would be implemented by both parties on the housing market that you would see a little bit more weakness. but we are seeing british mortgage approvals hitting a six-month high. >> recent data from nationwide suggested that london property prices have risen since the start of the year at the slowest rate. citizens are responded to the prospect of a mansion tax. even though the election didn't come up until may 7th. citizens preparing accordingly, if you will on what will happen. sterling now at 148 against the u.s. dollar and as we were pointing out british mortgage approvals hitting a six month high. take a look european markets. we're higher on the monday morning. of course, volatility last week marred by mixed set daf draft. a lot of focus on the it euro gaining ground against the u.s. dollar 109. the ftse 100 up 7/10 of a%. the german markets the outperformer up about 1.5%. and the italian markets trading in positive territory. italian business and consumer morale rising sharply higher in the month of march. oil, let's take a look at oil prices. of course, now focus turns to the potential u.s. iran nuclear deal coming together. that's what they'll be watching. we're looking at prices lower across the board. wti crude down about 1%. brent crude the international gauge at 56.27. down about a .25%. >> let's have a look how we're doing there. we saw treasuries unphased by janet yellen's comments on friday. she reaffirmed a gradual rate hike. also i want to bring breaking news from samoa. we saw two major earthquakes. an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 struck in the pacific ocean earlier today. the epicenter of the earthquake measured at 77 miles west southwest of the capitol and depth of 72.2 miles. there was a second quake that happened in the northeast new begin ya earlier. that was a quake 7.7 on the richter scale. and counting has begun in the nigeria. the oil producing south and wide spread delays. cnbc africa joins us from lagos with the latest. over to you. >> reporter: thank you. all eyes on the independent election commission ofnigeria. what we know so far the votes is going to begin at about 12:00 noon west african time. that's 11 amg.m. gnt. as for the timing we don't know. as you would expect in an election that has been probably the most close in nigeria's history, there's a lot of tension on the ground. in particular we've had reports of trouble erupting in the port area that is the oil producing region and there we have a dispute. the local governor saying he doesn't believe that election process has been done properly. however, in other parts of the country -- on the election day on saturday we did have a report of violence. now when you look at the candidates, you were talking about the low oil prices. it's going to impact whatever programs they're going to try to implement. the difference between the two main candidates. people are making the suggestion that the president that represents continuing because he has been trying to tackle corruption trying to fix our infrastructure. but at the same time other people are coming through and saying, actually when you look at the record general mohamed who ruled edd nigeria for over 20 minutes in the '80s you look at at person whose record was not very good. the choice between the two is not the clearest. but in tales of economic policy and business practices. >> for now thank you so much. we're waiting for a result on what has been a tight contest between the incumbent and mohamed. let's talk more about nigeria and what to expect going forward sub saharan. there's an overwhelming combination of negatives when in looking at nigeria. hurt by lower oil prices, terrorist attacks. is there a light at the end of the tunnel. is there a reason to be optimistic when looking at nigh nigeria now? >> i think it's true you're facing a pretty severe -- because of what is happening with the oil shock. con you have a nonowned economy which is dependent on intermediate. the growth outlook is not great. the long-term you can see structure growth whether you look what is happening in demographic change infrastructure, the power form happening the last couple of years. >> what about the impact of geopolitical risks and terrorism? i mean nigeria has been a top destination for foreign direct investment companies like nestle could tensions rut in the multinationals pulling out? >> what i think is true invest in the north of the country than status quo and part and parcel of investing in nigeria for some time now. i think the companies investing in the region understand how to deal with that. let's bear in mind the economic center of the country still in the south of the country and in the oil producing region as long as there's stability there you can hope to see more fdi coming into the region. i think at the moment political risk is very high. i wouldn't be surprised if you saw a slow down in until we know the economic and political outlook. >> currently you have a neutral position. you put in place two weeks ago. i'm wondering whether any change in the rating would be correlated to the oil price or whether it would be correlated to politics. and what the outcome is of these elections. >> yeah i think that definitely around the election time in this period you will see a lot of headlines around nigeria which will be negative. you look how it traded since june you've seen over 90% of correlation of the spread oil debt with the oil price. the oil price is the most important thing for nigeria. >> but there are a lot of question marks as to whether the outcome of these elections what actually hindered oil production in the delta region because both sides they're actually warning about impeding growth oil production there. do you think there's a high risk of that happening? >> well, i think we need to put it in context. what people may be worried about what happened in the 2000s when you have the movement of the emancipation impact oil production through oil theft and sabotage. at that point oil production fell by about 20% from nigeria. since that time the oil amnesty. a lot of the components of the group have broken different factions and they're less powerful now than before. i think a reduction of oil is a risk but it's not the same sort of risk as we're facing a few years ago. >> i want to get your thoughts on the currency. we've seen a lot of volatility in the currency over the past couple of months. it seems to be the never ending election. it's been on secured by militant attacks and technical glitches. once we get a sign of the winner do you think we could see more stability in the currency? >> i don't think so. you will significant depreciation this year. the stability that happen over the past month because of the new trading system of the currency that the central bank put in place. there have been various restrictions on fx trading in the country and the new market is not as liquid as we would like. i think that's a discrepancies between what we see on the screen and what people are paying on the ground. you see the black market rates 230 to the dollar. versus what we see on the screen at 200. i think there's a profb excess dollar commanddemand. >> are you betting on further central bank inspection? >> i think you'll have to see it. with nigeria's economy being import dependent. but the rate in which they're intervineenebleing now is unsustainable. we think they'll see another deevaluation in the currency this year and 200 basis points of rate hikes. >> a story we'll continue to watch. thank you for joinings us on "worldwide exchange".." from one election to the next. let's talk about the u.k. elections. u.k. prime minister david cameron will meet the queen steady formally launching the general election campaign. the launch comes as polls continue to show both cameron and his party rival largely head to head. one poll over the weekend put labour ahead by 4 points. the market is reacting more to this because we know the conservatives are usually good for business. they're usually good for gdp growth. they're usually good for the currency. what we're seeing today is the ftse very stable. sterling not moving too much. i'm surprised by that. >> of course these polls can change over the coming weeks general election on may 7th. interesting to see the market reaction. when it comes to the economy, though, of course a lot of negative implications associated with britain potentially leaving the e.u. i was speaking to a leading private equity firm who considered moving his firm to ireland if britain was to leave the e.u. some negative implications attached to a potential conservative win. they may push for britain to leave the e.u. >> a lot of uncertainty around 2017. if the polls are correct and labour continues to have a lead we'll never see the referendum. it will never take place. >> exactly. something we'll continue to watch here on "worldwide exchange." the race for the white house in 2016 is already heating up. former hp ceo said she's more than 90% likely to jump into the contest. a republican lost a bid for the u.s. senate in 2010 the gop field is expanding. the wall street journal reports florida senator marco rubio made tentative arrangements to announce on april 13th in miami. the global election watch continues here on "worldwide exchange" as former french president gets a boost in local elections. we'll have the details after this short break. plus chinese banks rally as beijing hits at further stimulus. our next guest is disturbed by the fundament also surrounding the banking sector. find out why. we're back in two. ♪ with the smart phones locked away . . . it's time to unleash the awseome power of these: ♪ hands. ♪ you got it booking right. ♪ booking.com booking.yeah welcome back. exit polls suggest that scar cozy conservatives and the centralist allies won by a large margin. the party is set to lose control of the half the loyal council. stephan is in paris with more on the story. some say it gives the former president precisely what he needs to spring board back into the palace. >> absolutely. first of all, the results 28 frechblg departments shifted this weekend from left to the right wing. the second run on film. what we've seen the week before a clear victory for the french conservative party on the coalition with the sen trastcentrist. they were up from 41 before the elections. and the socialist party in france for the last three years suffered a significant -- the extreme right did not manage of any departments in france all though it got a significant amount of votes of two seats on the ground. for the next presidential elections in two years time. this election as you said is a clear victory for the former french president who is the leader of the conservative party umb since it took the control of the party at the end of the last year. it's now a done deal. nicholas is in strong position to run for the next presidential election. there are a lot of people who could be the candidate and likely for him to face primary elections ahead of the presidential elections in two years. >> thank you very much for that. u.s. treasury secretary jack lew is stepping up pressure on china to let the currency appreciate during an official visit in beijing. he said it was critical for china to move toward a market-determined rate. he urged officials to take up deeper financial reform. secretary lew's visit comes days before an official deadline to sign up for beijing lead asian infrastructure investment bank. denmark became the latest country country to sign up on sunday following russia australia, with and the nethers lands. the u.s. warned that the organization could lack environmental and governance standards. meanwhile chinese officials lend support to further stimulus measures over the weekend. the governor warned over a slower growth and the risk deflation suggesting there was more room for easing. stocks rallied today off the back of the comments. in hong kong we saw china mainland mutual funds allow hong kong kong. that's why we see the rise. china's major banks were among the biggest gainers today. head of asia financial research at jpmorgan joins us now out of hong kong. good afternoon to you. we're seeing a lot of buying into the shares while they trade at a discount. do you think that buying that could continue or are we already closer to some overvalued levels here? >> i think what the csrc has done is try to reinforce the idea of mainland -- if you look at the quota so far there's about 250 billion of buying power. and only about 12% has been used up. there's significant, i think, access capacity of mainland money to continue to come south. >> i want to think about evaluations. shares trading up 14 times earnings. h shares 8.3 three times earnings. neither numbers strike me as being global territory. what do you think? >> i think that's right. i think when you look at the stocks, obviously, they discount a very negative outcome. when we look at numbers this quarter, there were some certain negative performance in terms of overdue loans up 20%. so these were disturbing numbers. i think in terms of asset quality. what is more telling is the market went up on the numbers. it's ignored these numbers. which somewhat speaks to the fact that evaluations are discounted. the fact you have dividend yeemd yields at 5 to 6%. >> josh let's talk about the economy. because china's slowing economy is starting to take the toll on chinese banks. how much of a further rise in bad loans are you forecasting if china's economy continues to falter? >> sure. if you look at implied stock prices today, the implied stock price is about 200 to 300 basis points of npl which is quite a bit. i think the bigger picture issue here is inner bank rates are up about 75 basis points since november when they started to ease. so despite two great cuts from the pboc despite one rrr cut of 50 basis point you've seen inner bank rates go up. part of the rally today investors looking for more stimulus and looking for the pboc to get market rates down. there's a bigger risk on deflation. something that the pboc mentioned this weekend at the economic forum been you look at pbi now negative 34 months and negative 5%. when you look at cpi 1.4%. when you look at house prices down 6% year on year. i think all the signs are there in terms of asset deflation need for more policy to stimulate the economy. i think that's why the market is reacting. >> what will further cuts do to interest margins. >> are there specific banks in china that can weather the tough economic conditions better than others? perhaps ones that don't have as much exposure to manufacturing because that's been hit hard by the downturn in china's economy. >> yeah. that's right. when you look at the npl data. one of the two areas manufacturing and trade account for about 70% of all new npl within the economy. one thing you've see is banks are starting to pull back credit from the areas. they're declining their loan books in the area because they're worried. i think our strategy would be to stick with the big liquid caps where capital is very high. you look at ccb their capital ratio is 12%. the highest in the sector. other idea to look for nontraditional banks where we have an overweighted jp morgan which can benefit from funding costs because they're not a depository institution. in general i think it's the go for quality where you're playing for policy but the downside risk, of course npl continue to rise within the economy. >> yeah but josh part of the reason investors have been buying chinese stocks and banks in particular because they're paying good dividend. if they're cutting back on dividends now, why would you want to hold them? >> sure that's a good point. if you look at dividend yields obviously the 5 and a half to 6% dividend yield applies some cut to dividends. it was surprising this quarter we saw full year dividends cut. some financials cut their dividend to zero because they're raising capital. i think it's part and parcel of the global arms race in terms of building capital. i think chinese banks on the whole are well capitalized. when you look at ratios 10 or 11%. i think this is part of the global trying to build capital ratios and china hasn't been able to escape that unfortunately. >> another big story is the set up infrastructure bank. china saying it's going to allocate 50 billion across the world. what are your thoughts on the aaib? >> yeah look i think, again, when you think about policy definitely you need some stimulus and in going toward more investment has been the policy play book for many years now. i think it will be somewhat of a small boost in terms of overall loan growth. it has spunk to the low double digits today and probably continues to fall further. it gives a little bit of a tail wind. i think you mentioned earlier the margins continue to decline. obviously one way to offset is that is loan growth. i think another part of the investment bank is the idea of lending overseas and boc has done this very well. when you look at boc overseas earnings they were up 20 to 30%. their domestic earnings were up less than 5%. the idea of maybe shifting abroad is one of the ways you can escape the domestic pressures and boc is another stock where we've been overweight with the sector. it tilts toward the angle. >> josh, head of asian financials research at jpmorgan. thank you very much for joining us on "worldwide exchange." now chinese plans to spend $500 million to build the first assembly plant in the u.s. the automaker is in talks with several states and plans to announce a specific location in about a month. production is expected to start in 2018. volvo said the plant will serve export markets as well as the u.s. where the company is aiming for a return to annual sales of 100,000 vehicles. intel reportedly talks to buy rival chip maker in a deal could top $10 billion. it would be the largest purchaser. altera makes programmable chips used by cell phone towers. intel has been trying to expand into new markets as the pc industries is in decline. they're not commenting on the story. let's have a look at the shares in both companies. >> a lot of these chip makers ending higher on friday after a rough sell out for the semiconductor space. reportedly moving to end a proxy fight at dupont. putting pressure on the chemical company and activist investment to reach a settlement. treon is pushing for the appointment of four director at coupon's annual meet inging in may. they want dupont to split in two. take a look at price action up in frankfurt. reportedly expected to meet with the federal trade commission this week ahead of the decision by the agency whether to improve the company's $25 billion merger. the ftc spent months revealing the deal which would boost the share to about 35% behind altria. how are we looking in terms of u.s. futures? let's take a look after a volatile week on wall street what are we expecting on monday morning? the dow is up about 130 points. perhaps a rebound. s&p 500 up about 14 points. keep an eye on the transportation sector. it's considering a leaded market. it's been selling off as of late. the story could change as we enter into the new week. and still to come in the show the fighting continues in yemen as official ss a potential ground initiative. military force will not do the trick. ♪ with the smart phones locked away . . . it's time to unleash the awseome power of these: ♪ hands. ♪ you got it booking right. ♪ booking.com booking.yeah and welcome everyone. you're watching "worldwide exchange." >> these are your headlines from around the world. >> crude remains under pressure despite ongoing violates in yemen and fears that iran nuclear talks could break down. >> jack lew presses china on free market reforms during his trip to beijing. this as more countries sign on to the asian investment bank against washington's wishes. apple ceo joins a chorus of corporate's criticizeing indiana's religious freedom law. >> intel and altar ya -- a deal that could top $10 billion. and of course a price action in equities last week was quite notable. we saw a significant sell-off. that's one of the reasons the nasdaq underperformed the major. the focus this week will be on economic policy. we had that jobs number due on friday. but also keep an eye on the vicks. we did see the volatility index 17% last week. that's an inindication that there is some volatility back. >> yeah. i think what is interesting we talk to the first hour guest david bloom about that. where are consensus trades heading next? going into the second quarter we know we're closing out the first quarter. everyone is taking profits. that's what we saw last week with the bio tech trade didn't we. are investors going to be on the dollar, short the euro or going to be long european equities? i've got interesting data. u.s. ambassadors are buying e.u. stocks faster than domestic investors. >> it's an amazing to see the vast outperformance of european equities versus u.s. equities this year. flat on the year. take a look at futures now. the dow up about 125 points. the nasdaq a tech heavy index up about 40 points and the s&p 500 up about 14. as we said volatility backtracking for the biggest weekly gain since january 29th of 2015. that's when the gained about 26%. right now here in europe we're looking at green across the screen. some better than expected data out of italy keeping an eye on the xetra dax. the italian markets a triple digits gain up about 1%. perhaps the market is not focussed enough on what is happening out of greece. the reform list put together. is it enough for creditors? >> you know why european investors are on the role of no focussed on greece because we have the ecb qe and that's papering over every crack. we're seeing for you take a look at the greek yields we're seeing yields moving somewhat higher on the ten year. elsewhere we're seeing bond yields a little change in the 10 year german yields. below the 0.2% level. treasury yield at 1.97%. little change on the back of yellen's comments in san francisco. let's have a look at the currency markets. we're seeing a little bit of dollar strength coming through. the euro dollar is weighed down by the uncertainty. we're down.23. a dollar trending somewhat higher below the japanese yen but below the 120 handle. and commodity currency taking a lower against the u.s. dollar. let's check in on what is happening in the currency markets -- commodities markets. we're seeing brent and wti down heavily. by wti off by 1.5%. brent crude losing around 0.9 percent. as investors are increasingly pricing in the probability of a deal between iran and the rest of the world around the nuclear program. that is really their sign for the oil markets. let's check in how markets in asia are doing. >> hi. i want to pick up on the iran story and oil and what ten means in asia. saying we see a framework agreement. a knee jerk reaction to the downside of $5 a barrel in the price of oil. that's good news for asia. and the indian imports are a lot. the rank outperformance shanghai up by more than 2.6%. expectations of further rollout of the modern road initiative benefit the infrastructure stocks. and knicknikkei for the month of february and missed expectations by a very wide margin. doj may have more work to do. elsewhere australia down by 1.25 at the close. air strikes in yemen lead by saudi arabia overnight left 25 people dead and 88 wounded. this according to the health ministry in the controlled area of the nation. meanwhile saudi arabia is still deciding whether to send ground troops into yemen. speaking to nbc's meet the press, the country's ambassador said saudi arabia was committed to completing its air campaign to protect the legitimate government. >> former afghan president hamid karzai said the use of force will not resolve the situation in yemen. speaking to cnbc and using the example of afghanistan, he said eventually negotiations will be needed to bring about settlement and not military means. rarely bring about a resolution. >> adding to the chaos in yemen are attempts by six world powers to reach a nuclear deal with iran. ahead of tomorrow's deadline. the two sides continue talks in switzerland over the weekend, but so far have been unable to agree on a number of key issues including how many years tehran should suspend the nuclear work. israel and republican lawmakers have warned against the deal with iran. let's talk more about the prospect of the potential deal coming together from dubai. thank you so much for joining us on "worldwide exchange." what do you think are we going to get a deal this week? >> it looks likely. we do get some conflicting information that is leaking through the diplomatic talks, but all of the sign ss are more positive. it's likely by tomorrow and we may hear that an agreement with iran and the p5+1 is likely to be reached. of course the question we need to ask what will the implications be for the iranian policy. let's not forget the iran's economy has been hit painfully from the sanctions. prior to the sanctions the iranian economy was about $500 billion of gdp with and it was growing by 5% per year. also following the sanctions the currency has depreciated by 250%. and inflation has stayed 25% per year. so a potential positive resolution actually is going to have a stronger strengthening of the currency as well as relieving the inflationary pressures which will be a positive. also, if a deal is reached eventually the sanctions perhaps not immediately but gradually may start to be lifted and first of all, iran has about $150 billion of frozen assets which can once the sanctions be moved provide some sort of an immediate financial relief if you want. it's likely, of course we may see the u.n. sanctions moving first and then likely to follow suit and most likely the e.u. is going to allow the iranian banks access to which will be a major relief for the financial system. and perhaps also start the gain from iran. there is a potential of a new guideline. >> quick question on the trade implications. because we know iran has big trade ties to turkey for example, to dubai. how immediately would the trade ties be strengthened again? >> generally speaking of course dubai has been still despite a sanction has been a major trade partner with iran. almost 35% of iranian imports are coming through dubai. in fact we do anticipate that the trade with dubai will increase further if there is any of the sanctions. at the same time turkey has been a major supply and mainly supplying food products through iranian exchange for oil and the relationship is also likely to continue and perhaps further. what is actually a bit worrying is that a deal with iran might create some competitive forces and more specifically saudis getting a bit more uncomfortable with the situation and they're now trying to build up their own nuclear program. >> the oil traders want to know if the deal comes through, how quickly will iran want to recover its market share loss under the u.s. led sanctions that restricted cross-suit ex eded -- crude exports? >> this is remains a bit uncertain. there's a lot of discussion, of course, and the signals, you know and iranian deal will be a barnl point for the oil markets. and nevertheless iran needs a lot of investments and development. the current capacity of iran is still limited, and it's unrealistic to think that immediately with the removal of the sanctions iran can increase the capacity sharply. i think this is at least a question of six to even six months to even a year until we have a better clarity on the investment flows to iran which will, of course support an increase of the capacity. i'm surprised the sanctions of the capacity was close to 5 million. currently we're at 2.8. i don't anticipate that we'll reach presanctions levels any time within the next two or three years. >> and meantime looking at oil prices lower across the board on monday. partisan fever is alive and well. a third of republicans think president obama presents more of a risk to u.s. than russian president putin. this according to a poll from reuters. the survey of nearly 3,000 americans showed 34% of republicans ranked the commander in chief as an imminent risk to the country compared to 25% for putin. meanwhile 27% of republicans saw the democratic party as an imminent threat and 22% democrats regarded republicans in the same way. i mean, when looking at the poll the only thing coming ahead a presidential election. and the opinion so divided on whether it should be a democrat or republican that should lead the united states. >> does that really happen in any other country in the world. there's so much demonizing and fear mongering between the two parties? i don't see it happening anywhere in europe. not even here in the u.k. we have a very very closely contested election. >> oh, come on. there are so many contradicting views who is right and who is wrong especially when looking at the greek exit and other leaders. some supporting. >> we're still over 10 months -- over 12 months away from the presidential election. so still a lot of contentious debate on who should be leading. >> speaking of that former hpc said she's more than 90% likely to jump into the race for the white house. a republican lost a bid for the u.s. senate in 2010 the gop field is expanding. the wall street journal reports florida senator marco rubio has made tentative arrangements to announce his presidential ambitiouses on april 13th. let's get you a run down what to watch the trading day as you get ready for work. february personal income and spending numbers are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. both are expected to rise after spending fell for a second straight month in january. at 10:00 a.m. we get february pending home sales which contract side contracts for sales that have not closed yet. stanley fisher is speaking this evening sponsored by the atlanta fed. here is a story for the both of us. coming up a case of window shopping. reports suggest amazon may no longer be in the running to buy the firm. we cross live to milan after the short break. and these are your headlines. crude oil remains under pressure despite geopolitical tensions in the middle east. intel reporting a deal for altera. and apple ceo tim cook join standing against indiana's religious freedom law. first, let's talk about fashion shares. reporting it could acquire -- this follows speculation last week that amazon was in talks to buy the online retailer. >> good morning. the stocks are suspended as the rumor continues on the market. this was a potential sale net-a-porter which was talked about a year and a half ago. it looked like net-a-porter was not ready now. they may be ready to merge now and that would create the largest online retail group that benefit from the in season with the net-a-porter. a lot needs to work out if the merger goes through. a profitable company is having double digit growth for online retail we're seeing a good situation. market cap for the group is about 1.3 billion euros while for net-a-porter not yet seeing profits there. the group's worth has a market cap of 1.5 billion euros. whether this merger goes through or not, the market is certainly thinking so. we continue to have yuks suspended limited up higher by 8% points. >> fashion emerse is becoming larger. you've been watching prada missed expectations hit by weakness in greater europe as well as china. this markets the italian luxury goods brands first annual profit decline since hong kong ipo in 2011. isn't that right? >> yes, it is their first yearly decline. so certainly we're watching that as we were saying good health for the retail operators but for big brand names that have grown a lot in terms of employees and stores things are a little bit tougher. you mentioned the weakness is, of course, the asian area. represents about one-third of prada's sales and that was a decline of 3.1% in terms of sales. there's weakness in europe and italy. the better markets are japan and the united states. they expect for 2015 to continue to see uncertainty both in the economy as well as social tensions. and expect to try to work on cutting costs that is certainly something they will do. the number did go up to over 11,000 employees in 2014. so they will have their work cut out for them as also currency volatility continues to weigh on prada. >> thank you very much for that. moving on let's take a look at the other top stories. intel is report there in talks to buy altera. that would be intel's largest purchase every. making programmable chips used by cell phone towers in military and industrial applications. intel has been trying to expand to new markets as the pc industry is in decline. they're not commenting on the story. take a look at shares in the company frankfurt intel higher by 7.3%. altera up a whopping 35%. >> we did see a sell-off in the semi conductor space. a lot of chip companies that power smartphones with their chips. that was one of the reasons we saw the nasdaq under perform the major ibndexes. intel particularly interesting. it was one of the old school names that offers a high dividend. you get growth and value in one name. but at the same time the company has been put under a lot of pressure to shift to mobile because that's where consumers going away from pc to moble. will they be fast enough to catch the trend and make enough business in the space. intel in talks to pie s tos to s tos to buy altera. tim cook joins a list of those speaking out against indiana's frjous freedom law. we'll tell you more after the short break. in small business you have to work hard, know your numbers, and stay focused. i was determined to create new york city's first self-serve frozen yogurt franchise. and now you have 42 locations. the more i put into my business the more i get out of it. like 5x your rewards when you make select business purchases with your ink plus card from chase. and with ink, i choose how to redeem my points for things like cash or travel. how's the fro-yo? just peachy...literally. ink from chase. so you can. welcome back. indiana governor mikeekke pends is defending a controversial bill. the measure sets a legal framework for those who claim government rules are hampering their religious freedom. the governor declined to discuss the issue. the governor of indiana has been trying to fend off criticism. it seems to be only adding fuel to the fire. listen in. this is where the debate has gone with misinformation. >> it was just a question sir. >> yes or no. >> there's been shameless rhetoric about my state and the law and about the intention all over the internet. people are trying to make it about one particular issue. and now you're doing that as well. well. >> this state law drawing national attentions. many corporations voicing their concern. we have tech companies from the likes of sales ceo tweeting. i think he was one of the first. there was angie's list. and apple voicinger that law. >> yeah and if you haven't seen that in the washington post the tim cook of apple of wrote. many people adds you say, have come out against this what i would hope more companies big retailers come out and speak up against this. we have very few of the national chains coming out, but what is open couraging we have the growing coalition of independent merchants. they built the -- i think that's a fantastic sign. >> will it be enough? will it be enough to put pressure on the governor as well as the state of indiana to perhaps change this law? it's interesting you were pointing out what tim cook said. sporting institutions the nba and w nba voicing their concern. the ncaa are hosting the college basketball championship in indianapolis next weekend. they said that moving forward we intend to closely examine the implications of the bill and how it might affect future events swes our focus. that's the ncaa president in a statement. we'll have to continue to see who and when other leaders respond to what is happening in indiana. >> i spent a little bit of time in india and i know indianapolis is a place open for business. it's a big buy tech. that city is open for business. there are other parts of the country not as open minded yet. i think we need to see further strong messages coming from the business community. >> developing a story and one we'll continue to watch. we'll switch our focus to oil. do prices have further to fall? take a look at u.s. futures. pointing to higher open despite the volatility we're seeing in prices. dow jones up 130 points. s&p 500 up about 14 points. back in two minutes. you can't predict the market. but at t. rowe price we've helped guide our clients through good times and bad. our experienced investment professionals are one reason over 85% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper averages. so in a variety of markets we can help you feel confident. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. and 5:30 a.m. in new york. you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm seema moody. >> these 0 are our headlines. >> crude we're mains under pressure and fears that iran nuclear talks could break down at the final hour. >> u.s. treasury secretary jack lew presses china on free market reforms during the trip to beijing. this as more countries sign on to the asian investment bank against washington's wishes. tim cook criticizeing indiana's freedom laws. biggest concern it discriminates against gay people. intel and altera shares soaring. reports that intel could be buying the company around $10 billion. and if you are tuning in thank you so much for joining us on "worldwide exchange." let's take a look at futures. it may be the start of a new week it is once again worries over the stronger dollar global growth slow down and normalzation in rates keeping some investors on the sidelines. futures are higher. the dow up 130 points. nasdaq indicating a higher open by around 42 points. and the s&p 500 up about 13 points. there are two notable earnings reports this week one santo and micron tech. micron tech will be interesting to watch given the weakness on the semiconductor space. the economic front about the jobs number due on friday. we're looking at gains across the board. the xetra dax the outperformer. and the story in greece continues to keep traders, of course, on the edge of their seat. athens sent in the reform list. the question is will it be enough to satisfy creditors to unlock the $7. 2 billion euros. remember that imf repayment loan due next week. headlines in the currency market. let's take a look at the euro dollar trade. we're on the dollar watch. the green backtracking for the second consecutive weekly loss positive for the month of march. it will be the ninth consecutive monthly gain for the dollar if true. we're looking at the euro slight slightly low against the dollar at 108. >> one of the top stories air strikes in yemen lead by saudi arabia left 25 people dead and 88 wounded. according to the health ministry in the controlled area of the nation. saudi arabia is still deciding whether to send ground troops to yemen. speaking to nbc "meet the press" the country's ambassador said saudi arabia was committed to completing the air campaign to protect the legitimate government. but former afghan president hamid karzai said the use of force will not resolve the situation in yemen. speaking to cnbc he said eventually negotiations will be needed to bring about a permanent solution. >> i hope that this whole unfortunate situation in yemen will be resolved rather than military means. we've seen it in afghanistan and other parts of the world. military means rarely bring about solutions. especially where there are people involved in a country and there is sentiment on both sides. we have the example in afghanistan where we are in engaging in some sort of campaign struggle as some of the countries -- for the last so many years. saudi arabia undecided whether they want to send ground troops. what is keeping them from doing that? >> i think they'll watch and wait to see how the situation develops but what we're seeing in yemen is a precursor to a fundamental shift in the arab world. the united states trying to decide what they're going to do and who they're going to play with. especially so you the white house trying to reach the agreement with iran. you have the fighting alongside of the agreement with iran in iraq trying to defeat isis militants, and also, on the flip side giving the united states support to saudi arabia the sunni gulf powers egypt and to work in yemen to try to overthrow the iranian backed rebels. you have the fundamental shift happening. it's going to be interesting to see going forwards where the ends up. we know president obama and john kerry are committed to getting a deal with iran. while there may not be a deal right now the momentum for the deal is there. they're getting major pushback from congress and the republicans. the poll you were citing earlier is rather stark saying a third of all republicans believe that president obama is more dangerous than vladmir putin. there's a list a mile long why they think this of course. it's interesting and it's going to be very very strange when we get back to 0 just the fundamental of the technical agreement in terms of political framework from the iranians. in terms of the technical agreement it's going to be interesting to see what happens going forward. >> on the situation the conflict between saudi arabia and yemen. is there room to operate diplomatically before it leads to a perhaps a larger escaladed conflict? >> i think there is all room for more diplomatic solutions going forward. the problem it's something for the saudis that is much more about security and territory and unfortunately negotiating with your enemy when all you're doing is lobbing missiles at them is a little bit difficult. >> it's complicating the u.s. iran deal. that's more foreign investors and people to watch in the region. let's take a look at the other top stories. intel is reportedly in talks to buy altera in a deal that could top $10 billion. that would be intel's largest purchase ever. altera makes programmable chips used by cell phone towers the military and many industrial applications. intel has been trying to expand to the markets as the pc industry is in decline. they're not commenting. shares of both companies higher in frankfurt. intel up about 7.2%. altera up 35%. take a look at the other chip makers. we've been keeping an eye on the semiconductor space after the sell-off we saw last week. right now a mixed trading session on monday. broad com up about 1.2%. we'll see if bargain hunters take advantage of the dip. >> the sector still pretty pricey. >> yeah. in other news fidelity is reporting to move a proxy fight at dupont. they're putting pressure on the chemical company to reach a settlement. they're are pushing for the appointment of four directors at dupont's annual meeting in may. they want dupont to split in two. dupont sharls in germany. let's take a check of oil markets. we're seeing oil prices down across the board today. brent crude around 0.7%. wti crude at 48. 12 off by 1.6%. as traders are increasingly pricing in that will be a nuclear deal between iran and the rest of the world. joinings now is catherine specter. good morning to you. if we see that deal, by how much could oil drop? >> well, i think the devil is in the details on the sort of deal. if, you know, it depends on what sort of the statement we get in the near term. have they reached a comprehensive framework or have they decided to continue talks? that will sort of be the first indication of how viable a deal is. but really it will take another several months of working out the technical details for us to be able to understand what it means for oil exports. >> the iranians say they could easily produce an extra 1 million barrels per day. do you think that's a little bit too optimistic? when would it come to the markets? >> i think we have to distinguish between deliveries to market out of inventory of which the iranians now have a decent amount and actual ramping up of production. i think in the short term we could see a pretty big wave of supply come to market as the iranians deliver oil out of inventory that have been prepositioned here in anticipation of a potential deal. however, we're a little bit more skeptical whether iran could get to the volumes of production in the near term. we actually think that something like 500,000 barrels a day over the course of a year or so is more realistic. >> and when you look at oil inventory. they're at the highest level in at least 80 years. the u.s. still increasing production and storage tanks filling up fast. does it put more pressure on? >> in the u.s. it will. we emphasize how disproportionate that stock building has been in other parts of the u.s. like europe or asia. what we're anticipating is in the second half of the year as the global balance looks a bit more constructive we will continue to see those inventories of the united states weighing down wti disproportionately. >> and how closely are you watching the situation between saudi arabia and yemen? and which initially sent oil prices higher on thursday >>well that certainly captured the market's imagination last week, and, you know, it certainly is a bellwether for regional stability. in terms of direct impact oil supply to market, you know, i think the market reaction we saw last week was arpg bli a little bit overdone. one thing we'll be watching today is the outcome of the nigerian elections which happened other the weekend. we think that nigeria is an underappreciated bullish risk for the market. and the chances of seeing some sort of instability in the days after the election are actually quite high. >> we're awaiting for a winner to e to emerge. >> thank you so much for your time. apple ceo said a new law passed in the state of indiana is dangerous. find out why and other business leaders are raising concerns about the controversial measure. that's up next. the governor of indiana is going on -- following a controversial religious freedom bill he signed into law last week. we heard from the business side. landon dowdy is live with more. what did the governor say? >> hey. the governor said he would support legislation to clarify the intent of new state law that has been widely criticized over concerns that could allow individuals in businesses to cite religious believes in refusing service to gay people. in an interview with the indianapolis star the republican governor disputes the law anti-gay discrimination as some have argued. 19 other states have similar laws on the book. appearing this sunday the governor said the bill has been mischaracterized and these types of measures are never been used to undermine anti-discrimination laws. >> this is where the debate has gone with misinformation and -- >> it was just a question, sir. yes or no? >> there's been shameless rhetoric about my state and about the law and about the intention all over the internet. people are trying to make it about one particular issue. now you're doing that as well. >> comments at indiana base make is in talks with other businesses and oceans to evaluate our next steps to reverse the damage. angie's list announced on saturday it's pulling a proposed $40 million expansion project in indianapolis in response to the law. eli lily which employs people in indiana said it's believes the discrimination bills are bad for business. caught on other tech ceos to follow suit. the ncaa is hosting the men's basketball final four in indianapolis this weekend and it said it will work toer in athletes and fans aren't negatively impacted by the bill. the nfl which holds the draft combine in indianapolis said it's studying the implications in the law. apple ceo said -- cook said america's business community recognized a long time ago that discrimination in all forms is bad for business. >> thank you so much for that. u.s. treasury secretary is stepping up pressure on china to let the currency appreciate during the official visit in beijing. he said it was quote, critical for china to move toward a more market determined rate. he urged officials to take up a deeper financial form. >> secretary lew's visit comes days before an official deadline to sign up for the beijing lead asian infrastructure bank. denmark became the latest country to sign up following russia, australia, and the netherlands joined over the weekend. the u.s. warned the organization could lack environmental and governance standards. and, you know, it's the support of the nations in europe that is catching many by surprise given that many of the countries have strong ties with the u.s. that makes the news particularly interesting given washington's disapproval. and many analysts say growing support for the bank caroline marks a shift in power toward the east. >> i don't think that shift in power is a surprising one. what is the u.s. afraid of? to be left out in the cold. there are enough countries and projects. there's enough work for everyone for the asian investment bank the world bank et. cetera et. cetera. i don't think they should be too worried now. >> china said they're going to allocate about $50 billion toward the aaib. at the same time leaders have been disappointed with the institutions like the world bank that have been widely criticized for moving too slow when it comes to the build out of infrastructure and emerging market. maybe they're saying aiib is going to come together and do a better job. these are the headlines. crude oil remains under pressure despite geopolitical tensions in the middle east. intel reportedly nearing a $10 billion deal for altera. and apple ceo tim cook joins a host of leaders standing against indiana. is there such a thing as a sure thing in business? some say buy gold. others say buy soybeans. i say, buy comcast business internet. unlike internet providers that slow down when traffic picks up, you get speed you can rely on. it's a safe bet. like a gold-plated soybean. reliably fast internet starts at $69.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. iran in the sixth world powers are scrambling to reach a preliminary nuclear deal ahead of tomorrow's deadline. joining us now from tehran. we're close to the deadline but it seems significant differences remain ali. >> that's right. with the negotiating deadline a day away it looks like the talks will go down to the wire and possibly beyond. for months iran agreed it -- and we don't intend on sending report. there's no question of sending inging abroad. there are other ways of dealing with the material. nonetheless, iran's -- may complicate matters at a crucial juncture. for its part the iranian media tend to be supportive reaching an agreement. but now they're saying the west is trying to shift the table and put the blame on iran so the next 24 hours is going to be critical. back to you. >> thank you so much for that. let me pick up here. i want to show where european markets are doing this morning. we're higher. we're seeing a lot of green. we're seeing tech stock outperforming today in response to the m&a stories we're see ought u.s. and the drop in tech shares in the last week. >> some encouraging economic data out of italy this morning. perhaps it's boosting sentiment. u.s. futures indicating a higher open. perhaps taking cues from europe. dow jones industrial up about 24 points. let's get a you a run down what to watch the trading day. february personal income and spend numbers are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. february pending home sales which track side contracts for sales that have not closed yet. vice chairman stanley fischer is speaking this evening. let's get more about today's trading action with chief market strategies. bob, thank you for getting up early with us. the markets seem to continue to show a lot of volatility i should say. up 17% last week. is there a reason to be worried given the legal of volatility we're seeing or is it normal ahead of a potential rate hike? >> i think you hit it on the head. i think it's normal. good morning to both of you. what i think you're looking at is a situation where the market is still understood to be in bold territory. most market watchers are calling this a secular bull market at least another year or two for this to go. but the volatility obviously called fear index brings that about. we have gone about 28 days without back to back gains in the s&p. it would be nice to see that. you have the the amount of data we have coming out this week including the jobs number on a short and good friday. i think it's going to be tough to break out to sort of a second bull run with that kind of data coming up on a shortened week like this. >> the dow is tracking for the first negative quarter and the s&p 500 is tracking for the first negative quarter in nine. is the market transitioning from bull to bear? >> no. i don't believe so. one of the fears is obviously the fed. we have a news conference with janet yellen that seem to be dubbish even though they took the word patient out. the market is decide and you're seeing it in the euro u.s. dollar move that we seen lately back down to 108. probably moving toward party. that's where you watch. it i think the market is afraid of the rate hike. they shouldn't be afraid. i think once that 25 basis point rate hike is out of the way, which i believe is going to happen sometime in july or august, i think that is going to bring about a second run in the end of the year. the mark should not be worried about a move from 0 to 25. the fed will try to get rates normalized. it's going to be a slow and telegraphed process. i don't think there's anything to fear. i think the jobs number shows continue strength. >> do you think earnings will be a big catalyst. expectations have come down so much because of the strength of the dollar. maybe these companies are going to be beating those very very low expectations. that could provide a little bit of upside couldn't it? >> that is exactly correct. the fear of the strong dollar is a bit overblown. you talk about 16 or 17% of earnings for the overall s&p coming from overseas. while it takes a hit, obviously, the absolute you forrick profits with had. i think the hit it's going to provide is a little exaggerated. you get toward party and the dollar yen i think so you to look at it a little bit harder. it's not for another eight to 12 months. i think corporate profits will surprise. when the bar is lower i think they leak that bar pretty well. >> 84% of s&p outlooks have been negative. it doesn't look too good ahead of the earnings season. what risk factors are you watching for this week the focus on oil prices or the currency market? i think it's on the currency market. i think it's going to be on oil prices as well. i think that the stanley fischer conversation is going to be interesting. one of the things we saw in the fed after the fomc statement and the press conference was a couple of fed statements where they said we're not really changing our view at this point. i think the market gets a little overexcited thinking that fed policy doesn't change like the jobs number changes. it doesn't change like the rate counts or oil change every friday. it turns very slowly. you to can kus a little bit on -- predict the fed is in play. i think that's going give the dip in the s&p. >> bob, chief market strategies thank you for joining us on monday. that's it for today's show. i'm caroline ross. >> i'm seema moody. we'll see you tomorrow. next up is "squawk box." have a great day! the good morning. crunch time for nuclear talks. but just a day left a critical deadline negotiations reportedly have hit a snag. growing backlash over the indiana religion freedom law. apple ceo speaking out that something dangerous is happening in many states across the country. and behind the wheel it was once the pinnacle of luxury. the choice of u.s. presidents and elvis presley. now ford is res recollecting the lincoln continental. it's monday march 30th, 2015. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky along with joe. andrew is joining some time off. we're listening to taylor swift because she was the win every last night. she took home a number of titles including artist of the year best lyrics for "blank space." we've been watching the futures and they're pointing to a positive open. a gain of 122 points where you look where it would be expected to open this morning. s&p futures look like they're indicated up by close to 13 points. and the nasdaq up by 40. probably good news after the lousy week last week for equity markets. there are two trading days left in the first quarter.

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