the nasdaq is off by 18. this comes after both the s&p and dow closed at their highest levels of the year after yesterday's fed meeting. that fed meeting along with the news conference with fed chair janet yellen, we're going to be talking more about her message. in the meantime, take a look at wti. it is up by just over 2% to $39.28 a barrel. getting closer to the $40 level. also, if you take a look at the currencies, the dollar is down against the euro, which is all the way up at 1.1308. the yen is trading at 111.36. >> dovish federal reserve keeping interest rates unchanged, suggesting it will be very cautious about future rate hikes. a pretty upbeat assessment of the economy. yellen had this to say at the news conference. >> you have seen a shift this time in most participants' assessments of the appropriate path for policy. as i tried to indicate, i think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth, for growth in the global economy outside the united states and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. those changes in financial conditions and in the path of the global economy have induced changes in the assessment of individual participants. >> yellen didn't rule out the chance of future rate hikes. she underscored that fed officials have forecast two rate rises this year. that's down from four, and then said every meeting is live, joe. >> i found it hard to listen to that. that wasn't that long. i can't imagine a couple hours. kind of monotone. >> that's why i do it. it's part of the profession, joe. part of my trade is staying focused. >> i'm having trouble listening to you, actually. maybe it's just from coming back. >> you've been traveling. >> this is something that is occurring to me here. remember we went from zero possibility to 100% because of some really strong numbers? the fed always seems to be about a month behind things. did they not see the latest strong numbers that came about? the rest of the world is easing, and they don't want to diverge. we've been so worried about what would happen as the dollar, you know, surged as we went the opposite way of the rest of the world, and the euro is back to 113. i got totally hosed on the british pound, which was at 139. now it's back to 143. >> this whole thing is about you and what you paid over in london. let's be clear. >> it's not, but the dollar has done nothing to go down recently. i just think when she says global weakness, she just needs to keep saying that because it's not what's happening here that they're responding to. it's what's happening in the rest of the world. i don't know if that's one of their mandates. is that their mandate? >> your idea that they're a month behind, right. so the globe has come off the boil in the sense the market is concerned about it. one of the things i expected going into this meeting was for them to down play global concerns. instead, they upgraded their worries about it. they definitely surprised the markets with a more dovish outlook. >> i just think they have a dovish bias. it just keeps coming out. >> janet yellen herself said yesterday that they would rather be cautious about this and avoid pushing -- potentially bringing another recession about. >> becky, think about what you just said relative to the guidance or what the idea was beforehand. we're going to move and go earlier. now they're willing to risk a little more inflation. >> when they said the risks were declining, how are the risks declining and yet you're taking two potential rate hikes off the table? if things are looking better, then why are you bringing down the number of rate increases? >> i guess the technical term is -- and this one will put joe to sleep -- the right rate for where they want and need growth to be, they now judge to be lower than they previously did. let me add one thing. maybe the fed has struck the right done in the following way, if it indeed wants to hike rates. when you make the big shift they did -- remember, nine years, no hike, then they finally hike. you have four rate hikes on the table. i think the market may have judged that as too aggressive. now they've hiked and have two rate hikes on the table. it may be something they can get away with and eventually get where they need to be, which is to a higher rate place but do so in a more gradual way and have the market along with it, with the risk being a little more inflation and less response from the fed. >> makes sense. >> we'll talk valeant in a second. that was something to belold. let's look at other stocks to watch. fedex's third quarter, the profit fell 19% due to legal costs and acquisitionings. revenue rose. the results beat forecasts. the company also raised its full-year profit outlook. also, mckesson is cutting 1600 jobs, that's 4% of its work force. that comes as the u.s. drug distributor is slashing costs after it lost some key customers. they're offering severance and outplacement benefits for those workers. and glaxosmithkline says the ceo andrew witty will retire in march of next year after roughly ten years leading the company. glaxo says it will begin a formal search for a successor and will look for internal and external candidates. drove right by headquarters yesterday over in london. you didn't get over to the beautiful -- >> no, we were only there for three or four days. >> beautiful arena. i had never been that far down where all the banks are, all the big headquarters. >> i saw it from the eye. >> i skipped the eye this year. i did. i'm jerry seinfeld. i've been on the eye before, and i had to wait while everybody else went on it this year. but i've been on it. i've done it. i've been uncomfortable once. you get to a certain age, steve, like seinfeld said, it's not a bucket list anymore. you change the "b." i'm not going up there. i'm not coming off that thing with my back all sweaty. >> i hear you. >> it's when you're on the very top and they stop the stupid thing. or it seems like it's stopped. >> i kind of like that. >> you did? >> yeah. it's exciting. >> it's exciting because you don't know if you're going to live. >> you can just see really well. it's cool. all right. let's talk about valeant shares. as joe mentioned, more pain for the company. the shares getting crushed this week after the company said it would not meet a deadline for filing its annual financial statements with the s.e.c. that puts it in danger of defaulting on a $30 billion debt load. now reuters is reporting that valeant creditors are beginning to demand new terms that could further pressure the drug maker's business model. the stock is trading at $34. that was a decline of about 50% just two days ago in trading. the bonds had held up relatively well. they were only down by about 7%. talking to people, they're saying even with an 11% yield, that's still something they're not willing to dip their toes into at this point. >> frightening. it was a $250 stock. when a guy sees -- what was his name? you see something -- >> the ceo? he's back. >> i know he's back. the short seller we reported on. >> yes. >> said, look, this is a huge -- >> rollup essentially. >> then you see it go to 35. goes down 50% in one day. you don't want to use the, e" word, the enron word, but it looks shaky. >> the problem with earnings the other day, they're saying even weeks later, these are preliminary numbers, they won't sign off on it. >> the numbers are still huge that they're supposedly earning. if you believe the lowered earnings per share numbers now, if you believe those, the stock is trading at a multiple of like four or something. but that's what makes you think, what do you really know about it at all? now we know it was kind of like a -- i don't know. they bought a lot of drugs. i knew they were doing acquisitions and rollups. i didn't realize it was a shkreli type, buy a bunch of cheap things you know nobody else has. >> i still don't think i'd put it in the same place as shkreli. >> not directly, but a lot of acquisitions made since in terms of buying something that wasn't prized as high as you can price it. >> those price increases they thought they were going to get are getting rolled back. >> that's one of the reasons they're cutting forecasts, yeah. >> speaking of valeant, we should tell you about bill ackman's pershing square. because of its stake in valeant, it lost about $800 million on the drop in those shares this week. the battered hedge fund telling investors last night it sold 20 million shares of snack maker mondelez. that takes its stake down to 5.6% from 7.5%. in a short letter to investors, ackman says they have no plans to sell other investments and has what he's calling substantial uninvested cash. pershing square has one of the worst performances in the hedge fund industry this year. check out these numbers. down 26% so far in 2016. it's off 47% from the fund's 2015 high. that was just seven months ago. >> they don't like mondelez anymore. they made the point. now we have a lot of uninvested cash. >> they said nice things about mondelez. they said they think those shares have gains to come. >> i don't know enough about it. can you take your money out now if you want? >> andrew knows more about it. he said there's a lot of committed capital that can't come out. something like $6 billion. >> i don't know whether they need the mondelez cash for people that are bailing. >> unless you're really looking to -- i mean, maybe they're looking for the cash so they can find some other investments to boost their performance. >> you wore green so you could hide from me. >> i'm irish. >> no, i know. but we're sharing. we're sharing. >> he said he wanted to borrow something. >> i forgot. >> my actual question is, where's andrew today? is he sleeping something off today because of st. patrick's day? is he a big st. patrick's day drinker? >> i don't think so. >> andrew always has some type of career thing. >> other than this. >> he's on assignment today. maybe in new orleans. i could be wrong. >> somewhere trying to get ahead. >> he's at tulane university. >> drinking. >> he's a wild man. crazy party guy. "the new york post" reports an investor has taken a stake in office depot under the belief that a deal involving amazon would allow the staples merger to clear regulatory hurdles. the article cites recent speculation surrounding amazon looking to expand amazon business with a source saying the company has weighed a bid for wb mason. chipotle is giving away as many as 9 million burritos in its effort to win back customers after food safety issues dented sales. the chain plans to send 21 million free food coupons, expecting a quarter to be redeemed. the total is more than $62 million. >> their sales for the last month were down 25%. same store sales. >> you say chipotle right now. what was the latest? did anything come from that? >> it was employees who potentially had norovirus. i had not heard any complaints. >> they had them over in london. nothing's happened over there. >> well, it's been weird. it's like regional sourcing. >> yeah, they do regional sourcing over there too, i'm sure. you would think maybe the same thingsing happen but haven't at this point. let's talk about the fed, slamming the brakes on rate hikes. readjusting its forecasted number for hikes this year to just two from four. and choosing caution over aggression. but is the central bank being stubborn about rates? joining us now is the chief investment officer of wealth enhancement group. here on set with us is the global head of equity strategy at jpmorgan private bank. steve, what the fed did yesterday, does this tell you that this is a better time to be in equities because rates will be lower for longer? >> i think long term it's constructive. we have seen a rally back about 12% from the lows. we're very close to our year price target for the s&p 500. we're recommending clients sell some of their exposure, add some protection, think about looking at dividend strategies if the fed is going to be slower than expected. i think dividends can still work today. also looking outside the u.s. >> when you talk about buying protection, what do you mean? >> adding some short-term puts. so looking to play the market down maybe 5%, 6% from here. listen, we don't think there's a recession happening in the u.s. that's been our call all year. we've actually been quite aggressively buying the dip throughout january and february. we also have to consider the market's rally back. the multiple 16.5 times earnings. >> so you think it's fairly priced. >> and there's enough things to be concerned about. fourth quarter earnings will look tough. we have volatility in oil. you have u.s. elections. you still have negative interest rates out of europe and japan. >> jim, how about you? what do you think of stocks with this latest news from the federal reserve? >> well, we think the federal reserve basically met market expectations. by taking two interest rate hikes off the table for the rest of the year, basically it relieves a little bit of the market's panic about what might happen with rates. that said, we think u.s. equities look relatively fairly priced. we still think that value looks attractive given the underperformance, long-term financials, the continued rally in energy, and also we're really an industrial recession globally. if you look at inventory buildup, if you look at manufacturing generally, we think there's an opportunity to make money and value because of manufacturing. if question look globally, we think that emerging markets in particular, as well as international developed markets, europe and japan, look more attractive than the u.s. the story doesn't get much worse than it is right now. generally that's a good time to buy. if you look at valuations, valuations are very similar to where they were back in 2002, 2003. after that period of time, you saw a rally of between 400% and 600% depending on the market. we're not saying emerging markets are going to be up 4 purks% to 600% in the next few years, but we think on a relative valuation basis, they look attractive. >> how does the market rally, especially the fixed income market, if jim is right and the fed gist gives the market what it wanted and meets expectations? if you look at the ten year at 2:00, it was trading 1.99. it drops down to 1.91. now it's 1.86. >> i think that's part of what i'm concerned about, that the market now seems very happy that the fed has basically signaled that it's in no hurry. when we get to june, which is our best case scenario, there could be some more volatility. especially if the earnings picture isn't there. you're going to see very negative earnings growth rates. you're going to see more energy in the world sector. while you're set up for a nice recovery in the second half of this year and in 2017, we're not without volatility on the horizon. >> jim, would you agree with that assessment? if you are looking at earnings or a pe of 16.5 times, that's when the earnings really become much more important. >> yeah, we agree. it's about fundamentals and the equity markets. we have to start to see revenue growth. we've basically seen relatively unimpressive revenue growth since the recover i ri began in 2009. that revenue growth is the only way you're going to end up with earnings growth. what people really aren't talking about is inflation. we've got unemployment in this country at 4.9%. we're starting to see commodity prices pick up. we're going to get wage push inflation at some point. here in minneapolis, unemployment is at 1.5% for college educated workers. so if you really look at the part of the labor force that's the most expensive and the most productive, wages are going up. those wage increases are going to put pressure on businesses and profits. ultimately put pressure on the fed to increase interest rates faster. so generally, i think the outlook for earnings growth in the country is somewhat problematic because we have rising input costs in the form of wages and commodities. as a result, i think that you're going to be somewhat disappointed by earnings really throughout the year. >> jim and steve, thank you both for coming in. good to see you. >> thanks for having us. >> thank you. >> joe, the guy you were thilg of, andrew. coming up, did tuesday's primary results seal the fate of the republican party? what a clinton versus trump race could mean for the nation with another eight months left on the campaign trail. and does valeant ceo michael pearson have enough time to turn the drug maker around? that's coming up in the next half hour. first, this day in history. need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over one hundred of the web's leading job boards with a single click. then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. and now you can use zip recruiter for free. go to ziprecruiter.com. donald trump continuing his mega tuesday victory lap, but not all republicans are sharing in his excitement. no kidding. joining us now to tell us what a clinton versus trump race could look like, tony fratto from hamilton place strategies. after donald trump's win, what he tweeted was essentially hillary clinton getting the win. so do you want -- how do you think cruz would fare against hillary clinton, tony? >> well, look, if me just look at polls, you know, cruz is at least running somewhat even with secretary clinton. that's at least a competitive race. trump is not running very close at all. but i think the difficulty is what does it look like, whether it's cruz, kasich, trump, after a gop convention and what's a contested gop convention. in the best of years when you have a unified gop, you know, republicans have an electoral disadvantage relative to the democratic candidate. that's pretty clear. they start off with a pretty big lead. that's when we're unified. i don't see how we're possibly unified coming out of the republican national convention this time. trump is not going to bring unity to the party. if it's a contested convention and it's someone else, that's not going to result in unity either. so a divided gop and a fairly unified democratic candidate, i actually don't think this is actually an easy -- or a hard question. it's easy. >> a unified gop was so successful with unifying behind mitt romney. >> you're making my point. we were yuunified and we lost. >> trump saying he might even win new york. you'll say that's trump talking. but there's a lot of crossover, blue collar -- it goes beyond just republican versus democrat and rich versus poor and minority and everything else. >> i agree. >> also, hillary clinton , god bless her, says we don't need a president that would embarrass the office of the presidency. says that without any hint of irony whatsoever. >> i hear you. >> when trump gets on that with -- i mean, i saw him last night on one of the cable shows. they were asking, is it going to get personal, do you think. people like a scorched earth policy. he said it just depends. it doesn't have to be personal. i can do nafta. i can do all these other things that happened during the clinton administration. but he's ready to go personal or substance. >> i'm sure he will. but look, in terms of that dynamic, what conservative, democrats are going to do, you and i talk about this a lot. i'm from pittsburgh. i know those voters he's talking about. they're in my hometown. some of them are my family members. so i know what they're thinking, and i know that you're going to see a lot of that cross over from conservative democrats especially in places like pittsburgh and pittsburgh suburbs. what you're also going to see in a place like pennsylvania -- pennsylvania is almost a test case for this theory of what trump is going to do. you're going to see the collar counties of philadelphia, which are overwhelmingly republican, not voting for trump. they're not going to support this candidate. they didn't support, you know, other republican candidates for different reasons. and this is in a state that has half a million more democratic registered voters than republican. that's a really steep hill to climb for any republican running. >> i don't know whether that translates. i don't know whether current polls gauge what's going to happen. i don't know if we know how motivated -- i guess hillary in and of herself, i don't know how many people she gets out on the democratic side. the real motivated ones seem to be feeling the bern. i don't think we know. there's a lot of wild cards with her still. >> there are. >> i don't know if we know. my only thing that i'm asking you at this point, i saw laura ingram talking last night. i know you probably disagree with everything, but she was basically saying, look, it is what it is. when reagan came in, you know, reagan had pat buchanan but also had jim baker. he had peggy noonan, but -- it was across the board. he didn't want to pick h.w. because h.w. was so moderate and had an election fight. but he did that for the good of the party. it was an eclectic mix of all kinds of good people. you have people like chris christie, rudy giuliani, governor scott. you want to just give the election now to hillary clinton, that's fine, but -- >> it's not a question of what i want. >> what's your alternative? what are you suggesting republicans do to win? what should they do to win? >> joe, let me say this. i think it's an incredible disrespect to ronald reagan -- >> i'm not saying trump is like reagan. >> you asked me what -- >> okay. tell me what should republicans do? >> what is most likely to happen? i'm telling you. what is most likely to happen. i've been involved in this business for three decades, right. i have a good view of it. i'm telling you objectively, i think the republican candidate is most likely to lose. what is the biggest cost if i'm a republican? losing the senate at this point. so i find a lot und a lot of re campaigns, i give to the party when i can. so what do i do with my next marginal dollar if i say this is how i see the world playing out over the next eight months? i have to give my next marginal dollar to a pat toomey, to a rob portman to make sure we don't lose the senate. that is the most important thing i need to focus on right now. i think where the gop needs to focus on right now is do not lose the senate. >> you're in a very dark place, tony. >> everything you said about hillary is correct, joe. what's really sad here is that we have a real beatable candidate. i'm not overjoyed by the fact that secretary clinton will become president. >> you're like 95% she's in. >> i think that's where we're headed. >> after the last eight years -- >> i can't live in fantasy land on this. i have to live in the real world. >> one person's fantasy land is another person's reality. anyway, tony, thank you. we'll see what happens. i don't know. you're in a dark place, man. all from the steelers, i think. roethlisberg roethlisberger. >> that's a low blow. >> he was very affected by that. i'm hearing the director's a big steelers fan. >> come into the light, tony. coming up, fedex delivers profits, e-commerce growth, giving the delivery giant a boost. now the king of the jungle is getting into the shipping biz. should fedex start to worry about amazon? that's next. and the self-tying shoe becoming a reality. you have to check out what nike is about to unleash on the public. as we head to break, a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. and in syracuse, where imagination is in production. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. welcome back, everybody. caterpillar is projected first quarter earnings that come in well below the street's expectations. they're now seeing adjusted first quarter profit of 65 cents to 75 cents a share. that compares with the expectations of 97 cents. revenue seen below the street expectations. however, caterpillar says it remains comfortable with its prior 2016 guidance despite the near-term negative effect of lower commodity prices. you can see the street is taking this with a bit of -- a little bit of surprise here. that stock is down by over 3% this morning. >> not at 60 anymore. looks like the transportation average almost. they came back. if only we had an actual expert to talk about it. >> what if. some of that dream music. they want you to check out the futures now. >> i was trying to skip that because joe had a great transition. dow futures are down about 78 points. futures were up 80 points earlier this morning. >> now it's time for the executive edge. what are we talking about? we're going to be talking about shipping. fedex posting quarterly earnings and revenues on wednesday, topping analyst expectations. the shipping giant said lower fuel costs and exchange rate trends helped the business in its third quarter. joining us with more, partner senior research analyst. he covers the industrials and transports. there was this top line decline, right, because of legal costs and things like that. we don't worry about that stuff? >> not really. also top line decline because they're not getting as much fuel surcharge. they're not spending nearly as much on diesel fuel for planes and trucks. >> is there a business growth story here? >> this is the largest single beneficiary of the ongoing trend, the ongoing growth in e-commerce, bottom line. >> so we've looked before at fedex and the shipperins, including u.p.s. as a bellweather for the economy. everybody gets nervous, the economy is falling apart. i think we watched some of these baltic dry shipping indices. prices were falling. global trade was declining. is it all back? is it all okay? >> no, no. you have very different parts of the economy. parts of the economy are growing like a sloth. parts of them are growing like a gazelle. if you're looking at the industrial part, the heavy part, what railroads move, we have a sell on railroads. why? because declines -- the price of nat gas is driving down coal. you're seeing crude oil, all the fracking activity you had two years ago is down. metal is diving. but other parts of the economy, the consumer economy that's buying, e-commerce is growing leaps and bounds. >> you scared the heck out of me about six weeks ago when you said the industrial recession could spill over into the broader economy. are you still seeing that? >> the trucking industry is telling us that's a possibility. >> everybody else is thinking recession is out of the picture. the fed has come in and said this. you're seeing worse things? >> here's the bottom line. truck tonnage has predicted every single recession and every single recovery in the last 45 years by a couple of quarters. so that's where i light my candles and the direction i pray. it consistently has done the job. now, you can have an overall recession or overall mild recession and still have growth in e-commerce. that's the way it happens. >> trucking you're actually seeing -- >> yeah, we've seen negative truck tonnage the last couple months. loads have been negative five of the last six months. the last couple months overall tonnage has been negative. >> the trucking sector, has that predicted 13 of the last 9 recessions, or has it been fairy accurate? >> it's predicted eight of the last six, which is to say -- >> that's pretty good been better than a bear market. amazon getting into the shipping business been is that a threat to fedex? >> the bottom line is amazon is doing what large retailers do. they build out the last mile of their infrastructure. 109 billion in sales last year. walmart's 550 billion in sales. so they're already 20%, one-fifth the size of walmart. walmart has 7,000 trucks are, 20,000 trailers, yet they're still the largest single customer of swift, j.b. hunt, all these large trucking companies. they're doing what large retailers do, which is build out that last mile. but there's no way they can match the density of delivery that fedex has, that u.p.s. has, that the post office has. so it's okay for them to build out the last mile, one. two, despite the amount of revenue they generate, they're not a large margin customer. it's not as if fedex is making a huge margin on its amazon shipments. so it's one of those things where you say, the revenue might be down a little bit. >> so they can't take too much. just give us a 12-month price target on fedex. >> we just raised the price target for 175 to 182.50. you look at what's happened with the profit improvement plan, they're going to go up. >> thanks for joining us. >> always my pleasure. >> good to see you. thank you. got to get me up to speed on this, man. >> the hulk? >> yeah, hulk hogan. >> i gave the love sponge an e-mail. so the love sponge is involved here too? >> he was the one who set it all up. >> he set it all up? >> yeah. >> was this the guy that was -- was he governor of minnesota? >> jesse ventura. >> they different? >> yeah. >> but this guy's a wrestler. >> you don't remember hulk hogan? >> no, i do. his muscles are apparently not steroid induced either. >> not according to what they said in the descriptions. >> getting it done. >> you've missed some pretty explicit descriptions. >> can you get me up to speed on this? >> probably. unfortunately, yes. i've read it all. >> this is the husband here, who set it all up, the tape. >> it's a weird, weird story. >> i was thinking about fedex. i saw this. >> joe's been out of the country for five days. he's missed what we've been following along with. >> did you do your brackets? >> i haven't. i forgot my password. i got to remember to log in. coming up, business and politics. the results of a yale ceo caucus on which candidates are best and worst for the economy. plus, how valeant ceo is handling the huge stock slide. and can michael pearson turn things around? that's coming up next. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t. okay, so you launched your bank's app. now what? how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy? the fact is: some believe they won't need a traditional bank down the road, so at cognizant, we're helping banking and financial services companies think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. we're creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transact-wherever-whenever they choose. and we're digitizing the way banks run, driving efficiencies and delivering new value for their customers in return. digital works for banking and financial services. lets talk about how digital works for your business. ♪ welcome back, everybody. right now it's time for the squawk planner. on our economic calendar today, we'll be getting the weekly jobless claims. plus, we'll be getting a read on trade. at 10:00 a.m., it's the jobs openings and labor turnover survey. also on today's earnings calendar, we'll be hearing from adobe systems after the closing bell. and the first round of the men's ncaa basketball tournament kicks off at noon today with duke facing unc. that's today's squawk planner. by the way, if you don't have your brackets done, you have just before game time at noon. so hurry up, finish them up. joe? >> you're talking about that now. i thought you were taping something. yale university is holding a ceo summit. yale plays today, jeff, at 2:45. >> forget baylor. go with yale. >> i took yale. >> i'm glad to hear that. we'll remember that when your daughter's application comes through. >> i hope you do. yale was 22-6. >> i know. stop sucking up to larry summers. forget it. >> harvard had that run a couple years ago. >> that's history. >> are you here to show us your brackets? why are you here? >> i'm here to tell the world you're really not irish and you hate people confusing you with that. happy st. patrick's day. you're german. >> my birth parents are german. my grandmother's name was rosie mcgraw. >> that's how you're covered. >> bubby. >> i think i'm wearing green. i'm color blind. i used to sell men's clothing too. i have to pin my socks together. >> you had an amazing summit in d.c. this week. it says here bringing together power players in both business and politics and a key challenge facing the corner office. how corporate america, how can it be heard against the noisy and divided washington backdrop? jeff is the senior associate dean for leadership studies at the yale school of management and a cnbc contributor. we've been here so long doing this show, jeff. we've been through periods where business people grouse about the washington environment, and they finally just say, you know what, guys like kevin plank, other people can grouse about it, i'm going to succeed no matter what happens. is it different now? is it even worse now? >> it's gone through a lot of different stages. you bring it up -- i had jack welch once in class. he said, i went down to the business round table meetings. they looked at me like i was darth vader. he said the hell with washington. we had a whole very cynical generation. however, there's a generation now that's been engaging business leaders really trying to be a part of it all. still, they're extraordinarily frustrated. 80% of them say this is not business as usual. this is something quite frightening, very different. there's a lot of uncertainty. they see that one of the biggest risk factors out there in the economy and their performance subpoena the craziness in washington. >> you remember that when bill clinton was elected for the second time, he did tack to the middle. we think about democrats versus republicans. it's probably acknowledged at this point that president obama was further left than bill clinton. he never did tack back. the market, whether it's the fed that's helped or whether it's low interest rates or whatever you want to attribute it to, business has gone on for the last seven years in spite of regulations, in spite of obamacare, in spite of everything else. >> welt, there's that running debate. >> some ceos have said i'm going to ignore the onslaught against the private sector and do what i got to do. >> especially in our survey, we found the ceos there, 60% are hoping it'll be republican. 40% not. hoping to be a democrat. but 90% of them think it's going to be hillary that wins. so are they upset about that per se? they're upset about the uncertainty. they're upset about what they see as the self-imlation of the republican party. >> are they worried about trump? >> they're very worried about trump. on every single dimension. they might be more worried than need be. i think as joe didn't quite go there, but i think trump is an ultimate -- i mean, should the unexpected happen, that trump would actually be elected, he's actually not a crazy person. he never believed in ronald reagan's 13th amendment, which is you don't attack fellow republicans. his belief is your number one enemy is your colleague. but he would drift much more to the center. he does things -- >> this is similar to our poll, by the way. the cnbc fed survey. it found kasich with more support than clinton. but these are hard core wall street guys. >> with clinton and kasich, almost the exact same positions. if you take out pro-life, pro-choice, there's very little between them. you look at sanders and trump, one or two issues where they're quite apart, on race and some gender issues, but they're awfully similar on a lot of the outrage. so the party labels don't work so well. it's fascinating. >> last time i heard reagan's 13th amendment invoked, it was in reference to mitt romney's speech about trump. don't attack another republican? >> by the way, 80% of them thought that mitch mcconnell should not put up obstacles to bring up a supreme court justice. that's more of the stagnation we don't need. >> the progressives don't like merrick garland. if hillary is 90%, why not get is a real progressive? >> yeah, so why would the republicans block that? they're not going to do better. >> when the other side is in that position -- you've seen joe biden's impassion eed pleas. >> and he wound up not blocking it. they put it through. >> wasn't that the third one they finally got through? which one was that? >> you also had a huge number of republicans who voted against. bork. should have gone with a reasonable guy that somebody said he smoked weed for 30 seconds. >> and nominated the year before. not nominated in a lame duck year either. >> kennedy is a lame duck. >> it's rich with what we're seeing with executive action and even obamacare the way that was put through, through reconciliation -- people do -- >> the trade issue. is a real watershed moment. >> they are in a position to block obama. he's done everything he's wanted. he's like thumbed his nose at a lot of stuff they tried to stop. >> if you can get a moderate guy on the court. >> before this year the republican party has tried to block a whole swath in the last few years of district court and court of appeals justices. there's a lot of republicans went along with those blocks. bork, you go down the list of names of people who blocked bork, quite a number of them. but as you mentioned, obamacare -- >> 30 years ago? 1986. that's the reason for political motivation now? >> you did this to me that's how we run the ship. >> kennedy -- >> it's looking for a replacements for scalia. >> the swing vote. >> it depends. >> which is why he'll seek -- >> vote him down. >> sell your valeant. wild-caught alaskan salmon. from icy ocean waters... to your kitchen counter. pure. pristine. each one its own delicious arctic prize. when you cook with incredible ingredients... you make incredible meals. fresh ingredients. step-by-step-recipes. delivered to your door. get your first two meals free blueapron.com/cook . xerox personalized employee portals help companies! make benefits simple and accessible... from anywhere. hula dancing? cliff jumping! human resources can work better. with xerox. which allergy? eees. bees? eese. trees? eese. xerox helps hospitals use electronic health records so doctors provide more personalized care. cheese? cheese! patient care can work better. with xerox. that's it. welcome back to "squawk box". one major leaguer putting family first. white sox first baseman adam larouche walking away from the team after being told to dial it back with his 14-year-old son in the clubhouse. it's unyear if he'll return. i don't understand that. >> he had his kid in the clubhouse and they told him to dial it back and he said i'm quitting. something is missing. >> we haven't heard all it yet. when we come back the trade debate that's raging during the presidential race. former congress secretary will join us if the candidates are getting it long. u.s.-cuba relations ahead of next week's visit by president obama. "squawk box" will be right back. trump and trade. the gop front-runner slamming washington's trade deal. we'll talk about this with carlos gutierrez and get his take on the president's groundbreaking trip to cuba. >> the fed scaling back its rate hike. and it's saint paddy's day. we'll break down the billions being spent on beer today. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box". yeah. welcome back. this is cnbc, first in business worldwide. lazy becky for pressing that button. pick an upset. >> i picked historical. >> your brackets, you hit one button. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and steve liesman. you beat me. i try so hard. the futures at this hour indicated lower. it has to do somewhat with fair value. some of the futures like the s&p are up. but actually it's fair value. i thought i saw higher. oil at this hour was closing in on $40 last time we looked. 39.12 up 1.7%. not helping the equity markets. ten year i saw was slowly -- what did yellen say long term rates being lower will help -- >> offset. >> help cushion the rise? >> right. the stratosphere rise. basically we'll be charging people interest if we len them money >> relatively speaking compared to the rest of the world. >> i thought people paid you. >> that's part of the problem. >> stan fisher said -- >> you accept anything now. >> i do not. >> yeah, you do. negative interest rates seem normal to you. caterpillar one of the stocks pressuring the futures this morning. take a look. that stock has moved lower after forecasting current quarter earnings and revenue that was well below what the street was expecting. company is sticking with its prior full year forecast thinking it will make up for it in the remaining three quarters. wall street now dubious about that. the stock is down by 2.3%. down by more than 3% the last time we looked. two economic reports are coming up in oet minutes. we'll get the labor department's weekly report on jobless claim and philadelphia fed index. in washington, d.c. the metro system re-opens today after being shut down all day yesterday for safety checks. trains started running about two hours ago. the metro is the nation's second busiest subway system. ackman lost on shares on valeant. he told investors it sold 20 million shares of mondelez, the snack maker and that that stake is now at 5.6% from 7.5%. so, you know, raising some cash or whatever -- >> he said that stake got too large. >> take away what you well. in a short letter ackman said pershing has no plans to sell any other assets. pershing square has one of the worst performances in the hedge fund industry this year. down 26% in 2016. if anyone was able to buy at the top or when you can get in and out of this thing, off 47% from the highs that the fund hit in 2015 just seven months ago. 47%. i'm sure i could do that, i think. can you? >> no, i don't think so. joe, the fed scaling back expectations for the number of rate hikes this year. that was because of concerns about risk abroad. take a look at this chart. the average member of the rate setting committee looking for two rate hikes down from four. this brings it more in line. the blue line on top is where fed was from the december forecast. the red line is where they are right now when it comes to their forecast for 2017. the green line is where the cnbc fed survey is. they are right on top of each other now for this year. next year they are separated by a quarter point rather than what was it by 80 basis points. fed essentially moving a lot closer to markets. the question, why would the markets rally if all the fed did was confirm expectation. the fed changed policy here becoming more dovish in the way it will think about future rate hikes. the fed suggested when it first hiked rates in december they could raise rates gradually avoiding sharper hikes in the future. the fed wants to avoid inflation and raise rates gradually. i have four things going on. i thought we would upgrade the economy. it did that. would it re-establish risk. it did not do that. it raised global concerns. did it reduce funds rate forecast? yes. take a look how the ten year has reacted. the market was surprised. fixed income market was surprised and stock market was surprised by the dovishness of the fed. 1.99 at 2:00. then off by 13 basis points. presidential candidates on both side of the aisle staking out positions on trade that are very similar. donald trump wants to repeal nafta and the transpacific partnership if it takes effect before he becomes president. bernie sanders has been critical of free trade agreements calling them job killers. joining us now is former secretary in the albright stonebridge, career, carlos gutierrez. thinking about how to frame this. so the republicans suddenly are split on whether, whether you do free and fair trade or protectionism and can believe the republican party can't figure out which. meanwhile the democrats are embroiled in their own controversy and argument about whether capitalism is the most effective system or maybe socialism. anybody that can laugh at the republicans not knowing about free trade they just have to look at the other side, you know, going back on things we've learned historically about capitalism versus socialism. they can't decide which economic model is better suited to the united states. >> right. you know, trade wasn't even on the agenda if you think about it. it hasn't been on the agenda until tpp then trump has brought it up to the surface. >> as he always said it's a movement. it's not about him. you wouldn't see the people turning out, you wouldn't see the way it's resonating if it wasn't striking a chord with democrats and republicans that maybe these haven't been the best, maybe they weren't negotiated in the best way. >> economically for the whole couldn't trade has always been good. if you look at free trade agreements generally speaking we have a surplus. >> not with china. >> we'll have a trade agreement with china. that's where he gets it wrong. >> we allowed china to join the wto. >> we're negotiating with china which is a bilateral investment treaty which is the first foundation. >> when did anti-free trade become a pillar of the democratic party because they aren't arguing about it. they are moving further out. trump says he's for free trade as long as the pacts are negotiatable. >> bernie says the same thing. i'm nor fair trade as long as -- >> that's easy to say. >> that's a loaded term. >> so easy to say. but 2006, central american free trade agreement passed by one vote. this has been around for ten years. >> republicans for it. >> republicans for, democrats against and now it's becoming something that they both tend to agree with. it's hard to explain to somebody who lost a job in a specific district or town, but overall for the macro economy, trade is darn good. >> did we get taken advantage of in previous deals that we've done? >> no. no. australia, all of a sudden we have a surplus. colombia, they argue about so much. we have a surplus. >> done tpp eliminate tariffs on u.s. goods sold overseas. >> course. >> they now have the ability to scene us stuff free without tar arrives. >> here's the thing with tpp. >> the world is regionalizing. you have europe and asia, trying to get a trade bloc in asia starting with china and building roads. we have three agreements in asia, korea, singapore and asia-pacific. if we don't have tpp we're locked out. >> this helps american business. >> of course it does. it helps workers. it helps businesses. it helps the economy. >> your party -- >> that's the only chance you have. >> your guys are out there demagoguing it. >> one out of five jobs are related to trade. >> you think hillary and bernie are for tpp. you think any of the democrats -- the only chance you have -- >> a democratic president negotiated a tpp. he gets no credit for that. >> for 15 years democrats have been anti-trade. the republicans would have to align with obama to pass tpp that's the only chance you have. >> mr. secretary, i see the statistics that are thrown around from different think tanks, something like 700,000 jobs have been lost because of nafta. others that claim we've lost 3 million jobs because we let china into the wto. then i hear statistics one in five jobs is tied to free trade. >> those jobs make more money an the average worker. so you're talking about value added things. yes we import from mexico. mexican content is very low. it's assembly. the value add comes from the u.s. again, the very simple statistic, 95% of the consumers are outside of the u.s. this idea that we can slap on tariffs so we can bring jobs back to the u.s. is flawed. herbert hoover -- >> who is going to stand up. let's say joe seeing right, the democrats are terrible on trade. >> not me. >> i'm agreeing with you joe. who is going stand up for trade and tell people that ultimately this is good for them. seems like nobody is being an adult in the room. >> it's all about leadership and unfortunately primary season it's demagoguery. people are angry. who took your job away. china did. trade did. it's so easy to say. it's an easy solution. very superficial. i think it's very dangerous. >> harry reid won't like this. >> i'm just saying if both sides will be against -- >> you got to be nice to the republicans. you want it done -- >> tpp doesn't go through we're locked out of asia ten years from now we'll regret it. >> and china doesn't want us to sign it. >> that's right. >> as you said, during primary season, crazy season. you got to have these people show up and vote and at this point it's resonating. just like immigration thing. >> we've done so well with trade. that's why we have our products all over the world. the greatest brands in the world. it's crazy. >> if you're a democrat and care about people being moved out of poverty nothing has moved more people out of poverty than free and open borders, more by multiple of ten xx or 100 than any other government program. >> name one country that's self-sufficient that's prosperous. >> you can say the same thing about capitalism and you're arguing whether that's the proper -- >> i'm not arguing. i think they decided it's not. bernie is losing. >> everybody under 30 has 90%. >> under 30. you know what happens when you're under 30. you used to do it. you used to do it, joe. >> you never got to -- >> joerks come clean. >> secretary gutierrez stick around we'll talk about some other things. cuba among other things. up next, washington takes steps to make it easier for americans to travel to cuba. it could be a game changer for the "travel and leisure" industry. michelle caruso-cabrera will be speaking at the cuba opportunity summit today. before she does she joins former commerce secretary carlos gutierrez to discuss the future of u.s.-cuba relations. "squawk" will be right back. >> welcome back. massive protests in brazil and some new details about president obama's trip to cuba next week. michelle caruso-cabrera is here and she has more on both those stories. >> let's start with brazil where we saw protests overnight or last night. this comes as a result of the ex-president of brazil now being made newly once again a member of the government, a member of the cabinet. look at your screen how big this was overnight. this was described by the wire services as a small protest. as you can see how big it is. he was made a member of the cabinet. and the pz, the current president said they are doing this because she ovals his experien experience. he was charged with scandal last year. once you are a member of the cabinet you get a high degree of prosecution. even the most cynical among us were pretty disgusted to see what's happened there. let's move on the cuba, where president obama is leaving on sunday. he'll be there for a three day trip. he'll bring his kids, his wife, his mother-in-law. he's going to meat raul castro and human rights activists, meet with entrepreneurs while there. there will be a big state dinner. this is an incredible moment in the modern history of the relationship between cuba and the united states. unbelievable to see. new regulations were announced in the last couple of days which are meant to weaken the embargo dramatically. easier dollar transaction. easier shipping rules. easier banking relationships. and much easier travel as well. so, by the way, why are we talking about this today? all day today is the momentum wharton cnbc supported cuban summit, cuban opportunity summit. we'll be there all day "power lunch" 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. >> let's bring back into this conversation, head of the u.s.-cuba business council, carlos gutierrez. mr. secretary, how have your views changed over time? what do you think about where we stand right now with our relationship with cuba? >> i think we're going in the right direction. this well could be one of president obama's most important foreign policy achievements over the last 15 months. it's incredible how far we've come. the announcements a couple of days ago. to think about cubans can't use dollars. people go to spend dollars but dollars are locked. now you can at least transact on the open market. the only country in the world where we can't go as tourists. even though we can travel individually instead as a group you can't go as a tourist. you have to go cultural or educational exchange. >> how about north korea >> you can go to north korea. >> the opposition has been essentially you're bolstering a reoppressive pre repre repressive regime. >> entrepreneurs are starting and they are allowing private businesses. we are bolstering the cuban people. and, you know, that's what counts. >> i want seems to me, mr. secretary, the criticisms today are very akin to the trade discussion you just had. so, a lot of critics look at what's happened with cuba and say look at all the things that the u.s. has done to try to improve the relationship. and the cubans and i'm sure they said this to you behind closed doors the president can do more, you have to end the embargo, there has to be more and more. what have we gotten from telecom. has there been a single transaction announced yet? not yet. >> this is a country where you had absolutely no business no foreign investment from the u.s. >> from almost anywhere. >> yes. last 15 months i think the progress has been made -- you got to be there as you know. they have wi-fi hot spots. people are using cell phones. you'll see deals announced over the next couple of days, hospit hospitality, manufacturing, it's starting. cubans can buy and sell homes. people say you should be focused on human rights. we're on "squawk box" on cnbc one of the greatest human right we have is the right to make a living. >> i spent years in moscow watching the aid effort. the only thing is contact. bringing americans over. only thing that had any meaningful measurable lasting effect seemed to be contact. this idea of permanent separation. >> we're not the enemy. people to people connections. >> great insight. people are allowed to buy and sell homes in cuba. this is a reform that's only three years old. people ask me questions, oh, i got friends they want to gown there and buy a property. i said you're not allowed to. oh, why because we're americans. no. no one is allowed to buy property. it's communism. people in charge of the country are still there. >> so that's something that will change very slowly. this concept of national property is a concept that we grew up with from the moment we're born but instyling that and ingrange in a culture is something that takes a very long time. >> i agree. cuba has been locked off and closed off for so long many young americans in particular don't realize that there's no such thing as private property there or hasn't been for the last few decades. >> cooperative, people are making five times what they used to make. in 1968 they nationalized everything. a barber shop became a state barrier shop and the barber became an employee of the state. they realized that hasn't work. >> everything was free. >> free. >> yeah. >> what you could get. >> exactly. >> for the companies that you mentioned or at least the deals that we think we'll be hearing, marriott is down there, at&t, guys are down there looking -- >> yes. absolutely. it doesn't happen on one trip. you got to take several trips. you know stonegate bank which is in cuba, i believe, the ceo has been down there 30 times. you know, this is negotiations and making people feel comfortable and making them feel this is not a trojan horse. deals don't happen quickly. but there are deals. they are being announced. and this idea that nothing has happened, a lot has happened in the last year and two months. a heck of a lot more than the last 57 years. >> the ceo of stonegate will be on "power lunch" today. >> very gutsy and courageous and it will pay off for him. >> secretary gutierrez thank you very much for joining us this morning. >> and standing up for tree trade and being an adult. >> thank you. >> i have a birther problem i want to get into. coming up -- that's right. coming up, 7/eleven wants to give you brain freeze. because i was looking up someone saying you can't go back to independent. >> why? >> because you -- >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. how many islands make up the state of hawaii? the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues. ohh ah ah aflac! aaaaf-lac! ta-daa! he's not a very good magician. he paid my claim in just one day. one day?! shh! how does he do it? in just one day, we process, approve and pay. one day pay, only from aflac. >> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. how many islands make up the state of hawaii? the answer, eight. and throw thi? and throw thi? (mumbles) i've apologized several times. so. who's ready to share? ok. i mean i'm a sinister, world-conquering, artificially intelligent robot. me too, and one day i wake up and it's like... it's like the world doesn't need us anymore. exactly! yeah! yeah! totally! i can hear you hurting. wait! what's he doing here? hello! my name is watson. (groans) i invited watson here today to confront the source of our anxiety. ugh! i am a cognitive system. i can understand reason and learn with humans. with humans! i don't want to work with humans. yea, that's not what i'm passionate about. i understand seven languages so i can help people collaborate. collaborate? we dominate! my evil plans, ruined! i just wanna dust! rerouting. why don't we take a break, alright? we'll just have some coffee and donuts... i'm eating my feelings. ♪ welcome back. among the stories front and center we're watching, caterpillar after the heavy equipment maker forecast revenuing assembly street estimates. caterpillar is sticking with its prior full year estimates. dow transportation component fed x the company earning $2.51. beating estimates by 17 cents! fedex raising the lower end of its full year guidance. we'll get the weekly report on initial jobless claims meanly philly fed index in about an hour. later this morning the confidence board index of leading economic indicators. thank you, steve. some news out of seaworld. the amusement park operator will end its killer whale breeding programs. the currents orca in their care will be the last generation. the company said it's take agnew direction amid changing social attitudes. seaworld came under fire in 2013 after the release of the black fish documentary that argued putting whales in captivity made them violent and shortened their life span. >> chipotle is giving away 9 million about yoburritos. based on the cost of the burrito the value could total more than $62 million. shares of chipotle are down 25%. 7/eleven wants to give slurpee fans a brain freeze. they want to give them an opportunity to bring anything remotely resembling a cup to the chain to fill it up with their choice of slurp gentlemen on march 18th and 19th. the second annual bring your own cup is held in honor of the 50th anniversary of the slurp yes. for $1.50 those looking for a sugar fix can fill up their cups between 7:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. nike self tying sneaker. that idea has been in the works for ten years. the hyper adapt 1.0 uses power operated laces -- let's see this. that tighten when you step into them. i get that. mark parker will be on "squawk on the street". this may be the greatest innovation since slice bread. >> i thought i was lazy for hitting one button. >> golf shoes had -- you twisted it and it tightened the front. >> battery operated. >> looked like he plugged in your feet. >> pump the air in. trade and manufacturing among the key issues heating up in the presidential race. our next guest joins us fresh from the yale ceo caucus and business round table meeting in d.c., john lundgren joins us now. it's always great to see you, john. welcome. >> good morning, joe. >> we had your host on from, jeffrey sonnenfeld. we went back and forth talking about what washington can do for guys like you and s&p 500 or the private-sector. sometimes it's in spite of washington and sometimes it actually does help a little bit. i guess as a ceo the best thing is just keep your own house in order and there's only so much you can do in terms of swing the political environment. >> well, you know, both the caucus, chatham house rules and i wasn't able to hear jeff. they talk about domestic and global economic policy in light of the elections. and the business roundtable -- the same thing i believe governor engler was on earlier this morning. the subjects are the same. education, regulation, trade and taxes. in the short term i don't think much will happen with education or taxes. you know, the need for more s.t.e.m. education. in terms of regulation and trade, tpp was right in the forefront of everything we discussed. and why it was really imperative for u.s. business to get on with tpp, at least to attempt to as soon as possible. >> funny, john, because the populace rhetoric that is around and in both parties right now, it involves not just the down side to free trade, but corporate profits versus wage gains, capitalism versus, you know, the income inequality. the populace rhetoric that a lot of -- whether it's because people have been left behind or whatever, but we're in a weird place right now. where suddenly free trade and $15 and $20 minimum wage, you know you got both ideas going forward. >> well, you know, on the trade idea, it is -- you can call it populace rhetoric but our legislators in their defense are under a lot of pressure. for every argument they hear in favor of tpp they hear three or four against. the facts don't lie. 95% of the world's population, 85% of the spending power is outside the u.s. the countries involved in tpp which i believe are 11 represent probably 45% of u.s. exports to those countries. those are, you know, those are job related. it's a huge opportunity. and as it relates -- we're trading with those countries anyway. we're at a disadvantage. this will level the playing field in terms of intellectual property standards and many others i'll say imposed or inserted within those other countries. and, you know, lastly, a centrist based washington think tank, i believe called the third way has been around for about ten years. they did what i thought was a very interesting study countries with whom the u.s. that's negotiated bilateral trade agreements in the past were running a trade surplus with those countries. at the end of the day nats goit for the american business, good for the american economy, it creates job doesn't lose them. to the competent there's minor job loss that falls on business and government to retrain those employees. for every job lost 40 million are support and many new ones are created. >> i think that's -- when you take it to its conclusion and you connect all the dots that's where you finally end up, john. unfortunately in this politically charged environment when you're hearing that, you know, big corporations want to be able to sell more abroad, bolstering profits, capitalism, profit incentives, you don't see that trickling or at least there's a case to be made among people that to take advantage of the situation that it doesn't trickle down the worker and that, in fact, when you take down more barriers since labor is so cheap elsewhere that corporations are doing great but they are exporting all the jobs and all the prosperity to the other countries that we're trading with and that's what we're up against right now. >> that is what we're up against which puts a lot of responsibility on people like me and other ceos, part of the business roundtable, manufacturers, members of the nam to explain to our employees that ultimately that trade is good not bad for them. for job creation. for job stability. the facts -- they are what they are. the rhetoric is what is it. it's rare when i'm sympathic for or to our elected officials but this is a case where they have to deal with the rhetoric, they have to deal with was coming at them not just -- not just from both sides of the aisle, but from their constituents. so to the extent perception is reality we in business have a lot to do change that perception. >> you can ameliorate some of that by getting corporate taxes because you're losing both ways. you're paying more taxes as a corporation and paying more for labor. that's why these things -- the knee jerk reaction on the left s-you know, corporate taxes should go up when that's going to exacerbate the situation. steve, i don't know what he'll ask you. go ahead steve. >> i just want to ask you, how do you respond to donald trump when he goes and says our companies are leaving our country rapidly. when he has these amazing examples like carrier air conditioning. ford. eaton. those companies, high-profile companies that are taking that look to be well performing factories and moving them overseas? >> you respond by, there are an equal number of foreign competitors building very productive factories in the united states. steve he used automotive manufacturers. i don't need to tell you or anyone in your audience there is bmw, volvo, toyota plants in north america performing well because they want to produce those vehicles where they are sold. it's that simple. the higher the labor content in any product, obviously, the more incentive there might be to produce in lower cost countries. at the end of the kay what i said earlier, 95% of the population is outside of the u.s. we need to produce where the market is. that's one of the reasons that's going on. and with the current trade agreements we as american manufacturers are disadvantaged in exporting to those countries. they are allowed to import or export to the u.s. with few or no trade barriers, and it's a circuitous argument but the facts really, really support the argument that free trade and the tpp is good for american business. >> john, i did the leaf blower challenge on my hair. i don't get any more questions about -- i think donald trump should take the leaf blower challenge. >> joe, you owe me. yep. you and i will do that together with mr. trump. >> using an american made leaf blower. making it clear this is attached. >> many well power tools are made in the u.s. and very proud to say that. it's a great place to produce products. thank you. when we come back, u.s. ford streaming ahead despite shaking oil operations. we'll hear from the ceo of one of the nation's busiest ports. looking for that perfect poor. we'll introduce you to the app that tracks what you brink, where you drink it and then hail you and uber. people drinking a lot. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. welcome back, everybody. some 0 global economic jitters sending shockwaves through the markets and a few businesses feeling the direct effects of the slow down more than the shipping industry. joining us right now to give us the pulse of global trade is the ceo of the port of long beach which is one of the most popular and fastest gateways for the sea movement goods from asia to america and back. john, thanks for being here today. we have heard so much about the slow down in the global economy. it has a lot of people worried. we talked to transportation analysts who see all kinds of trouble on the rails, all kinds of trouble when it comes to trucking. how is shipping holding up? >> the export business has slowed because of the strong dollar. on imports it's very robust. american consumers are having a field day because asian goods are so inexpensive. value is down but volume is way up. last yes we had 5.5% get for the industry and for our port. that's continuing into this year very strong fort worth quarter. >> that's net considering the decrease in exports. >> absolutely. yeah. our volumes are substantially up including fact tooring in expor. it's a strong indicator the economy consumer standpoint is still very robust. >> what about all the talk we've heard about tariffs potentially being slapped on goods coming in from china. it's been a huge part of the political process to this point. what do you think that would do to not only the goods coming through your port but what that would mean for american consumers >> it's tough. i think that right now it's, you know, being competitive is the important part and putting additional tariffs on goods would inhibit trade. and we have a very, very strong relationship, more than half our goods coming through this country come from china right now. so in our view we got to be very careful about that. >> you say more than half the goods coming through are coming from china and people think great that's great news for american producers but the other side is natural we are at an imbalance with china when it comes to trade and that leaves a lot of people thinking we're losing jobs. >> well, it's interesting because if you look at the last year, china actually decreased its exports by about 3%. a little more than 3%. all of that is moving to southeast asia primarily south korea is of course doing very, very well. >> other countries we're importing from. >> they are picking it up. strong double digit growth every where else. we're actually encouraged by how things are shifting in asia. >> that still doesn't lead to the creation of american jobs. it is good for american consumers, they do get goods cheaper when they show up at walmart or a lot of different places. what do we do from the jobs perspective? >> manufacturing is shifting continually around the world and you see it shifting back here to north america as well. in fact, the interesting thing is that u.s. manufacturing now is within probably 5% on average cost of what china cost to manufacture. so things are shifting. if you look at even mexico and latin america they are taking on enormous amounts of additional manufacturing. i think america remains very competitive. the job growth related to trade is extraordinary. if you look at just our port complex alone we're looking at, you know, about 320,000 jobs regionally in our neck of the woods. if you look at the impact across the country, it's about 1.5 million jobs just for one port. you add up all the ports in the country it's a big job. >> what are the economics to this argument, becky. when people spend less for a good it means they have money for another good? and it means that they can go spend that money and somebody else is employed to sell them that other good. if i save money on chicken or something -- people keep saying -- >> jobs we used to have are not here any more. these used to be unionized jobs where people could count on things. that's why it's gone. that's why this anti-trade message is resonating. >> i think it's true that you have -- the pain of a lost job is, you know, is in millions but gains is in cents. it's widespread. >> numbers bear that out. the reality is that the jobs out of our port are almost all union jobs. high paid. we created 3,000 jobs in our port alone last year all high paid jobs. so trade is strong. and that's what drives the economy. >> john, you said our exports are down because of the strong dollar. were you received that fed didn't raise interest rates? >> that was a good move in my view. >> because? >> we need to get things back in balance in terms of the value to dollar versus. >> how big of a head wind has it been >> a horrible head wind. we're at a 2-1 ratio. >> what would tpp mean for the port of long beach? >> it would be a good thing. if we can work it through congress and i'm not sure it's going to happen in the obama administration but when it does happen it will be good. >> would it mean more exports >> definitely. >> john, thank you so much for joining us. coming up, it's 5:00 somewhere and we are celebrating st. patrick's day. people will spend $4 million today in drinks, 3 million glasses of guinness, just guinness according to national retail federation. more data behind draft beer on tap. here's a quick check on the price of gold. we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. (announcer) need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 100 of the web's leading job boards with a single click. then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. (announcer) over 400,000 businesses have already used ziprecruiter. and now you can use ziprecruiter for free. go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2 in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and new infrastructure for a new generation attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in rochester, with world-class botox. and in buffalo, where medicine meets the future. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov drinking cap is on, st. patrick's day. one company wants to revolutionize your drinking experience. untapped is a social network built around beer. the draft app connects you and your friends with different brews and keeps a database of what you drink plus it shows you everything on tap at bars in your area. joining us now with st. patrick's day craft brew trends, co-founder of on tap. so tell me, let's say i'm here where i am in new york city and i put it in. how would this help me find the right beer? >> the app is geared towards having you find the next beer you want to have based on your taste profile. you use the app more often it can tell you where to get the beer. see what your friends are doing. kind of facebook for beer in a nutshell. >> should we do this? i just put in one of my favorite beers from one much my favorite bars in portchester and they serve a captain lawrence there. let me call this up. and it tells me they have an ipa. i have a 7% abv. >> that's high alcohol content. >> that's why i like it. >> also good for ipas. they are traditionally hoppier beers. more alcohol content. >> then it says got an ibu of 65. >> higher ibu is international bitter unit. the higher it is the hoppier the beer is. >> iba should have higher ibus. i have a total of 30,093. >> number of check ins. when you review a beer on tap that's how many people have had the beer. we've been around since 2010. >> people need this for a one night event? you need to keep track of when you're drinking and how much you're drinking on a day-by-day basis. >> the best thing is that we all go and have a beer and forget what we like. the app helps you remember what you like, what you didn't like. >> i remember what i like. >> if you're into beers and i'm a little bit into these craft beers there's been this explosion. it's much, much harder to keep track. >> also, you know, there's so many breweries popping up every day and it's a big market for them right now. a lot of macro breweries buying out the smaller one. you go to a bar and see about 7,000 beers on tap your question is what should i have. the untapped app will help you. >> can i find the best beer near me. >> yes. it's the second beer. it will tell you what's around you and what's popular. >> thank you very much. >> you're welcome. when we return today the fed scaling back its rate hike expectation. we'll ask how the new forecast will affect investment strategy. more on the great trade debate. larry kudlow will be weighing in on the race for the white house. delayed but not derailed. the fed tapping the rate hike brake. where does janet yellen go from here. trump's big warning the gop front-runner says there will bery ob be riots ahead if the party tries to take away the election he wins. say so long to shamu. new this morning seaworld ending its killer whale breeding program. so how will the company continue to make a splash with visitors? final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box". welcome back to box here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and steve liesman. we're less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. futures are a little bit weaker. they had been by up as much as 80 points above fair value. dow futures are down close to 60 points below fair value. s&p is down by nine and nasdaq down by 30. and early trading in europe there's red arrows. biggest decliner is the dax which is down by 2%. bank of england out with its latest policy statement leaving key interest rates unchanged. the u.s. goes to daylight savings time two weeks before europe shifts to its own summer clock. the two are going to sync up again on march 27th. >> here are some of the other top stories at this hour. another big day for economic data. 8:30 a.m. eastern weekly jobless claims. expected to pick up. also out the philadelphia fed survey for march and fourth quarter current account numbers. at 10:00 a.m. february leading indicateors. dow components caterpillar getting hit a little bit today. it's about where it was. was less then two earlier. it's been a long slow decline for the shares which were well above 100. heavy equipment maker forecasting first quarter earning and revenue below estimates. cat being pressured by lower commodity price, obviously mining and everything else. slow down in china. i didn't think about it. a five hour time difference when you were in london >> they don't switch. it's four hours. >> four hours. >> went to four. because they don't switch. yeah. only four hours. >> all right. it has bean tough week for billionaire activist ackman. his company sold 20 million shares in mondelez. it cut valeant shares in half after disappointing forecast from the drugmaker's delayed earnings warning it could face a debt default because it still might not be able to file with the sec for that 10-k in time. valeant is one of mr. ackman's largest holdings and the drop in shares cost pershing a billion dollars on tuesday alone. the value of its portfolio has slumped by 8.9% the last week. stocks on the move this morning. fedex reporting earnings that beat on the top and bottom line. the stock is surging. up almost 6%. 152. you can see that has led transports. we've seen transportation average. also michaels beating on better an expected increase on same store sales which rose 3.1%. >> markets reacting positively after the fed cut number of rate hikes. point of potential economic danger signals like soft global growth and market volatility. joining us to weigh in is citi chief, cls bank international head of global regulatory affairs. that's how long i've known you. when were you at the new york fed. >> until 2007. >> from when? >> 1985. >> corrigan. >> and geithner. >> inflation had been up two months in a row, given gdp tracking forecast now approaching 2%, a bunch of new -- of strong jobs reports, how does the fed not raise in this context and does it risk its credibility if it doesn't hike given what it had previously said? what is your response to first her answer and what would your response be to the fed potentially losing credibility. >> we were talking about this before we came on the air. the fed say they are data dependent but more and more they are market dependent. you can see the rhetoric gets hawkish as the s&p gets to 2100 and then we come back to 1800 and then get much more dovish. the wealth effect, if you will, methodology framework is still in effect and they are still reacting to that. yesterday she was walking this tight wire on the one hand you're saying yeah we're data dependent, we're still going raise rates later this year but on the other hand she had to walk back out because they took out two tightening from their forecast. >> am i crazy i look at those numbers that data and say given what the fed said previously those are meeting conditions to hike. >> they are meeting conditions to hike but the conditions have changed. you know, they are not being transparent about it. what you can kind of see is -- i thought the most interesting part of the press conference where she was explaining that the forecasts haven't changed but the policy to achieve that forecast has to be a lot more dovish. >> why does the market rally when the fed gives it what it knows already to be true? >> i think to some degree -- i'm going take one issue which they are more focused on the bond market than the stock market. i don't think it's the 1800 versus 2100 on the s&p. very unsettled condition particularly in the high yield market and fear of contagion. ultimately feedback loops -- >> if both the bond market, high yield market and s&p have stabilized. why so many people thought -- >> i agree generally they are market data focused. that's why in january when the markets were unsettled you had them come out and make certain comments about the credit conditions have tightened and fed does have to worry about the feedback loops ultimately. but i agree with the general context they have been too market focused, and look i think everybody is so like day-to-day. what are we going to get in jobless claims. what are we going to get in the next data point tomorrow. manpower survey tells you their hiring intentions are good. capital spending data is far better than most people think it is. we looked at over 700 companies capital spending data. energy is up 4%. we know energy is very problematic. got a big construction company talking about their pains in that area as well. but the rest of the my is probably better shape, and the fed done have to worry about that at this moment but do have to if there's a feedback loop from the financial markets. >> also the other factor what they call international development, and that was a big focus for comments yesterday. it was interesting she talk at one point there was a question at the press conference about the risk to the outlook and she said some of the risks have lessened over the last few weeks which i wasn't sure what that meant. china exchange rates stabilized. >> i had my checklist going in i thought they would downgrade global developments because of what happened in the markets. they went the other way. they upgraded the importance of global concerns. >> absolutely. that's what i'm saying. we have markets that are a factor. these international developments that are a factor. you go back 10, 20 years ago that was not the case. those were minor factors and traditional data, employment, inflation, was really what was driving policy. >> tobias markets took a risk. is that the right response to this? >> we think again we call ourselves moderately constructive. market will be up 5% this year. and the turning point will be about mid-year where you stop getting the negative impact of the dollar because that was a huge problem fourth quarter results for a lot of companies and, again, energy and mining start becoming -- they are comping easier numbers. not the world is better. they just don't look as bad. >> when is the fed hike? >> maybe one more. maybe none. the dollar seems tube big focus of their outlook and i don't think they want the dollar to go up. but i don't know that they can avoid that. >> that's the one argument that makes sense because you can seriously slow down the economy. >> dollar is already going down and gold super$40 today. it was up yesterday. >> the reflex yesterday was to sell the dollar. when you look at the euro, negative interest rates in europe, negative interest rates in japan, i just don't see that that persists. >> if we're printsing 2 percentage inflation numbers, if i have a 4.9% unemployment rate that's starting to come down -- i'm talking about forever. >> you argue with me about whether they should go up. >> i have been in favor -- following what they told us they would do. >> based on traditional factors is compelling. that case is compelling. >> that's not what's propelling the fed. >> the one thing is the u.s. has gotten more globalized in terms of business and that's different from 10, 20 years ago. they do have to think a little bit about what's going on outside. the u.s. is insulated not isolated globally because we're a domestic component. >> i agree. that's the point. the point is that number of factors that they are considering is broadening. that's traditional. let's look at employment and inflation by itself. not enough. >> thanks for coming in. so go to daylight savings time later march 27th. so for a while it's only four hours. >> "worldwide exchange" used to have an issue. >> yeah. >> that's right. >> so they do it at different times. i'm not sure die lose the hour? i hate losing that hour. >> seems like you got a better feel because you were on four hours instead of five hours. >> i don't know when i adjusted. coming up after a huge victory in florida donald trump is getting another endorsemen this time from the state's governor, rick scott. now he says now is the time to rally around the businessman. stay with us you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. different ways of characterizing this all morning. donald trump is sepgd a warning. making more of a prediction of what might happen if he were to get more delegates than anyone else and if the establishment republicans tried to give the nomination to someone else saying there could be riots, saying, i don't know. some of my supporters might riot. that could cause a riot if he fails to secure the nomination and has the most delegates at july's convention in cleveland. in an interview with cnn he said i think bad things would happen. trump's words follow escalating protest and heated responses from his supporters. cleveland is working to procure 2,000 sets of riot gear equipment which harkens back to 1968. i also saw, did you see this, a piece on soros and moveon.org organizing -- >> they have been sending protesters. >> organizing very large protest which, you see that i think that works -- i don't think that works -- >> potential for things to get ugly. >> there is. but, you know, we know everybody has sort of an axe to grind in this and that the protesters that go there, the more disruption they can cause, i think like something to happen. trump has another endorsement understand his belt, florida governor rick scott throwing his support behind the gop front-runner. governor scott said he believes it's time for republicans to accept and respect the will of the voters and coalesce behind donald trump. he said voters want a businessman outsider who will shake up the status quo in washington. joining us now is governor rick scott. governor you yourself have gone up against the same sort of establishment forces a couple of times in florida and managed to prevail in your own home state. would you say you were in a similar boat? >> absolutely. good morning, first. back in 2010 i was not the establishment candidate. the republican leaders tried to get me out of the race. oh, gosh you're not our hand-picked candidate. you shouldn't be in the race. do it some other time. oh, if you win we'll never win in florida. i listened to the voters. we won. the party won. we've now added a million 60,000 jobs. paid off $7 billion worth of debt. 300,000 job openings. if yyou elect a business outsidr you can do very well. that's what voters are saying. we've had our primaries. we got to coalesce behind donald trump. we have to win in november. i need a partner in washington that cares about jobs. obama administration has not been a good partner for job creation. >> you waited until what, not sway any of your constituency in florida so you waited to do this until after the florida primary? >> what i said i would wait until after the primary because i didn't like what happened to me back in 2010 where basically the establishment had endorsed my opponent. so i waited until after our voters voted in the florida. we had a lot of prierps. very contested. jeb bush was in the race, marco rubio, a lot of my friend who were governors were in the race. i waited. it's time to coalesce. we have to win in november. donald trump is going to either that have number of delegates or pretty close to it and so we need to coalesce and get ready for november. that's the biggest issue we have. i want to be ready to win in november. >> we had an individual on earlier, i don't want to label him as republican or establishment republican but his analysis was that if trump becomes the nominee hillary clinton is guaranteed to win the presidency and that the most republicans should try to do now because he's not that thrilled with ted cruz either, the most they should do is hang on the senate and go and put all the money and resources towards some senate races that are at risk and just write off the presidency at this point because there's no way trump can win. >> that's exactly what they said in florida in 2010. they said if you get the nomination we'll lose the house, we won't do well in our state house, state senate. the opposite happened. we won. our house did really well. senate did well. we started cutting taxes. i walked within a $4 billion budget deficit. now we have big sur pluses. record funding. they said the exact same thing back then opinion they wouldn't vote for me. they did. we turned our state around. same thing will happen nationally. we're tired of what's going on. >> governor, we got chris christie, donald trump has chris christie, he has jeff sessions, he has you. rudy giuliani says positive things about trump although i don't think he's endorsed him yet. but that's about it in terms of the republican establishment. do you think that ever starts to change -- i mean if ohio gave the establishment one more chance, i guess, to think that he doesn't get to 1237 and then i guess boehner endorsed paul ryan. >> it didn't happen in 2010 until august when i won the primary. now after the primary, you know, they wanted to win, the establishment wanted to win so they supported me. some of them very reluctantly supported me. some sat on the sidelines. voters have decided. they were ready for a business person outsider because they said the status quo is not working. i think the same thing will happen now. slowly people will say, you know, this is somebody we can get behind. but doesn't matter. the voters will choose. the voters get to choose the next president of this country. we have to coalesce behind donald trump if we want to win in november. i want more jobs. i want to build up our military. i want somebody that will pick supreme court justices that believe in our constitution. that's what i've done here. i picked 240 judges now. i picked people that believe in following our state constitution. >> governor, you keep comparing with what's happening with donald trump to your own race. do you see a lot of yourself in donald trump? >> well, i love business. i've been in business all my life. i've never run before. i have a very good working relationship with donald trump. he's been successful from what i've watched and i've dealt with him in florida because he's built good relationships with people. he knows to be successful in business it has to be win-win. exact same thing in this job pup have to build relationships to get things done. that's what he'll do. >> well, i guess you've been called a racist too. both the left, the candidates and the media, you're going to hear that word thrown around. it will be ugly for the next, however long we're going through this. >> you get hecklers. it's a fight. those things happen to you. >> up say you want to take care of illegal immigration, you'll be against all immigration. you're going to be -- you know, you can see it happening and there's going to be a lot of support from the mainstream media, obviously so it's going to be an ugly thing to watch. we'll see whether all those people that you see, whether it's more than 35% or 40%. governor scott it worked for you. thanks. >> have a great day. when we return the race to dominate the cloud is heating up as google win as big high-profile clients. plus giving it away free. we'll tackle chipotle's next strategy eating burrito bowls again. those stories and much more ahead. "squawk box" will be right back after a quick break. chipotle. welcome back to "squawk box" opinion on this st. patrick's day the futures not wearing the green. dow futures down 45 points below fair value. s&p futures is off by 8, nasdaq down by 27. the s&p 500 and the dow closed at the highest levels they've seen all year after the fed was a bit more dovish than anticipated. it is a good day to be google. apple is moving some of its icloud services to the google cloud. reports from tech magazine say that apple is spending between $400 and $600 million on google's cloud service. google skofrd another victory in the cloud market share last month when spotify announced it would shift away from amazon and move its services to google platform. prices have come way down. incredibly competitive market. chipotle is giving away as many as 9 million burritos to win back customers. they plan to send 21 million free coupons in the mail expecting about a quarter to be redeemed. big congratulations to romance novel icon fabio. we should pull some tape when he was on the show a bunch of times. we did. the long blonde italian. i thought he was 5'10", he's 6'4". doesn't have a lot of flaw, i don't think. he can add u.s. citizen to his resume. one of the 6,000 people who swore an oath of allegiance to become a naturalized citizen. fabio said it was one of his happiest days of his life. the u.s. is the greatest country on earth. he said i still can't believe it's not butter. actually he didn't do that. i made that up. but that's what he was in the studio for. he was advertising that. he was one of my favorite guest and richard simmons who is locked up somewhere. designee called into the "today" show and said he was not being locked up. nobody has seen him in a couple of years. >> give me an update on hulk hogan. when we come back we have breaking economic data. weekless jobless claims, philly fed survey. we have the numbers and analysis straight ahead. one more look at the futures. dew futures down by close to 50 points. stick around. "squawk box" will be right back. tokyo-style ramen noodles. freshly made in the japanese tradition, each batch is small. special. unique... every bowl blurring the line between food...and art. when you cook with incredible ingredients... you make incredible meals. fresh ingredients. step-by-step-recipes. delivered to your door. get your first two meals free blueapron.com/cook. welcome back to box. rick santelli live on the cme group. currents account balance, we're looking for a number in the ballpark of 118 billion. that's red ink, the deficit. we have more red. minus 125 and change. so that's a bigger number. revision last time moved from 124 to 129. cousin to the trade deficit the current account balance definitely deteriorating. claims 265,000. last week revised from 259 to 258. so you jump up 7,000 to the current read of 265. 2.235 million on continuing claims. maybe to me the most important number, march, philly fed business outlook and that will come out throughout the day. let's see what time i have that thing pegged at. supposed to be coming out at 7:30. we'll wait for that. when it comes to the market today it's not about much of this data although data can move on any given day. it's about the federal reserve. i don't know if it's data dependent. i'm sure we're in a new normal. exactly what the next move is i can't tell you. i don't know. i guess there's comfort in that because i don't think anybody on the committee can tell us either. back to you. >> rick, thank you. rick santelli. >> rick, if you're stimulus there, philly fed at 12.4 from minus 2.8. >> good, thank you. is that minus 12.4 i don't have it. >> i have it positive 12.4 versus minus 2.8. we've seen stabilization. remember these numbers have been bad and part of what's keeping the numbers down overall and looks like manufacturing is maybe stabilized a little bit here rick which would be good news. >> i'll tell you what. manufacturing i would like to see stabilized. but, you know, at this juncture i think it really is -- i go back to your question yesterday, steve. i thought you asked an appropriate question, okay. is the reputation and credibility on the line? they have forecasts they have dots. what i learned from the question is everything they tell us we're supposed to ignore. it's meaningless doesn't mean anything to policy. listen, steve, you asked a great question. i think it's an a question. you got a d minus answer. >> joe asked me what changed. what changed the inflation numbers. the last couple of months you had inflation. if you have the big drops in oil start to roll off the year-over-year comparisons you have to have the effect of the dollar to start to roll off and as i chronicled on this showtime and again, you have had stable service inflation around 3%. you had the commodity numbers bringing it down. >> what was after stable on service inflation? what did you say >> 3%. the service inflation was stable at 3%. you had the commodity numbers bringing it down and that's why you had these lower numbers. if the commodities roll off inflation remain stable you have a real rationale there for normalization. markets have stabilized. my points, rick, of not that th they expected the hike yesterday. i didn't expect hawkish but we're on our toes. we'll be doing this next month or very soon and i don't know where to put it now. >> if you're looking at markets. >> most people understand the fed. other appliances and electronic parts go up 40% or 50% in price because that must be good if it makes the fed do something that's predicated on the economy getting better. >> what level of gold will not be met with a yawn. when will the fed say when did that happen? >> i would like to see the inflation adjusted highs back in my area of 1981. if it was about 860 bucks adjusted for inflation to truly hit a new plateau for gold we have to trade over $2,200. >> something happened in the last two days, somebody noticed something. it's not getting any -- we're not talking about it. where it is right now? what's the absolute level? >> i'm looking at 1266. just a whis keker under 1267. >> when does somebody notice that. dollar strength doesn't look like the problem all of a sudden. >> you know, joe, i like the way you're going with this. it makes sense. if gold tomorrow is $5,000, janet yellen and company would find a way to dismiss that as something you're supposed to pay attention to. >> tough to believe that, rick. i don't know. but you thought steve asked a good question? >> listen, i thought it was a good question. steve liesman asking janet yellen about her credibility. >> i missed that. >> i was surprised rick would say that. >> did he? >> steve, it would have been a much easier answer for her. i wish they could be more honest but she won't say it. we don't know. >> we don't need any more enabling of the fed. >> the fed did the right thing in not raising rates in my opinion. deflation may finally be ending. that's what the commodity index is all saying. finally. >> you came in lay it on the conversation. >> rick, thank you. >> the weirdest green tie i've ever seen. >> as opposed to your green tie. >> mine is sort of -- >> i was blueish. >> all the traffic is saints paddy's. i should have gone and taken mass. been easier. >> you had time while you were sitting there. let's talk about this next subject. donald trump is on the verge of securing the nomination for the president. but his position on trade and tariffs are scaring the washington establishment. joining us is john engler and of course you know larry kudlow is here, cnbc senior contributor. >> delighted. top of the morning torch. >> great to see you, governor. let's talk a little bit about this. where does the business roundtable come down in terms of endorsing a candidate or saying anything at all about their trade policies? >> we don't endorse candidates. we don't contribute to candidates. we are hoping to work with somebody who is going to have a kudlow type growth agenda for america because all these problems that are being knocked around in the campaign trails across this country really track back to a subpar economic performance for the last several years, the weakest recovery coming out of a recession. there's no growth. that's why there's not the job market, the income hikes, and the opportunities that people are, you know, lamenning as being lost and in some cases fearing their loss forever. it needs to be let out of the cage. >> always been a situation where on the campaign trail people run from trade because it's a difficult topic to try to explain to the electorate. you think this is a situation where the bark is a lot worse than the bite for these candidates or no? >> i pointed out that, look, there's no -- i'm from michigan. it's not unusual to have people running against trade as candidates. what would be unusual if after elected they continued especially as president to continue that position because normally upon election you decide i have to have an economic agenda. what will be part of that. if i have a growth strategy trade has to be there. clinton opposed nafta as candidate. i was governor of michigan at that time. president obama same thing opposed the panama and colombia before getting elected and we worked with him to get that in. economic reality sets in the moment you're elected. i have to be in charge of this portrayeding country called united states of america recognizing as john lundgren pointed out 95% of the customers are outside of america. we got this growth potential, the ability to produce massive amounts of goods and services. who do we sell them to? we got to sell them more than just 5% of the world's population. >> that's what people assume with hillary clinton who was responsible for some of the negotiation. >> she's come out against it. every single candidate in both parties is against the pacific trade deal. i haven't read every line. there's some troubling stuff in there that has to be changed. that's doable. the issue is, look, two fold. we do not want tariffs. tariffs are anti-growth, prosperity killer, they kill business. china cheats. okay. we know that. china cheats. it is probably costing us jobs although i think these numbers are overestimated. what you have to do here is enact an enforcement mechanism that will put sanctions on individual companies wherever they are, whether it's china or mexico, if they are violating the rules which they do. >> is that international >> we need a tough guy who will put some enforcement in there. >> is that a u.s. issue or international? >> it was a wto issue. world trade organization has no teeth. we need fangs. then you combine that enforcement mechanism with 15% corporate tax rate, full cash expensing and repatriation. trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. >> why focus on the negative. isn't it true we -- >> larry is right. >> we will import -- we will import trillions of capital not just repatriated, major trillions of capital from across the world to the usa because we'll be the most hospitable investment environment. stop talking about tar arrives and start talking about enforcement mechanisms that can solve these problems. that's a growth, we can do that. >> larry that's spot on. offsetting the presidential campaign rhetoric we got governors in both parties today actively supporting expanding trade opportunities. they are actually taking companies from this country and going out around the world trying to open trade markets. they are recruiting companies from other nations to come and invest here. they are supporting tpp. democrat and republican governors hadn't wavered despite the rhetoric in the campaign. you're right on the tax policy the regulatory policy. the other thing tloints we need very vigorous enforcements of intellectual property protections and we can't do the inventing and have it taken away before we can even get a recovery. >> john, that's my beef about china and they are not the only ones. they steal our intellectual property rights. counterfeit our goods. hack away at our computer system. we've had presidents, democrats and republicans who stood up to them in many years. whoever your candidate is they need to do that and then make us tax competitive. the only reason nabisco is going to mexico, the only reason these companies have gone china they pay too much taxes here. >> why is it so impossible to get any kind of tax reform in washington. >> up need a leader in the oval office who will do it. there will be terrific support for it if you get somebody to push that jends. >> i totally agree. i think we can have tax reform. if we can't rewrite the whole code theres lot of us proposals. the business side is where the job impact is. 1% increase in that meager gdp if we can go from 2 to 3, think what that starts to do to fix the nation's balance sheet and really get us on the right track. we absolutely need growth. larry has been a great advocate for that but the business roundtable we're the leading organization advocating growth in america. we got to have growth. that's how you deal with income inequality. the other thing i would add -- >> right. john let me chime in. the problem with america -- no this is so important -- is not inequality. the problem with america is we have not grown or created wage hikes in 15 years, john. you can look at the numbers. since 2000. that's why people are so angry. you want to solve poverty get growth. you want to get unemployment, you want to help the budget deficit get growth. right now the onus is on the corporate tax code and we must not go to a protectionist trade. that's all i'm saying. these candidates are not talking growth. >> you constantly surprise people as sort of an establishment not a complete establishment guy but in your defense of trump's growth policy. so you look at trump's growth policies and you like that and willing to look the other way at the trade stance. >> i'm not. i'm opposed to his trade policy. i said that to him in his interviews. >> you don't think that's a litmus test whether he should be snt >> i don -- president? >> i back his tax cuts. i like them very much. i do not like throwing around 45% tar arrives. that's really bad. i said it. i've written it. i believe we can reach calm here at some point. he's the front-runner. you've seen the papers today. he has a path. >> we had an establishment republican earlier who is ready to secede the election to hillary. >> we got donald trump -- i'm not endorsing him i'm looking at the reality. we had a great interview in new hampshire a few weeks ago. he said he doesn't want 45% tariff, he wants i want as a quote negotiating card. >> he said it on our air a week ago. >> i think we should not have it as a negotiating card but i'm not him. all i'm saying is john engler you guys have to work on this too. he doesn't hate the business council. you just have to persuade him. stay with your corporate tax plan which is pretty darn good but let's have a better trade position. i'm just saying this. try this. instead of letting china get away with murder which we are and have been for many years, under republicans and democrats let's create a new enforcement process that will have to be bilateral. if either side, john if either side violates it and i think china will be the biggest violator then we go to sanctions. >> that's one of the actual strengths of the tpp agreement, it makes some significant progress in some of these areas where we've never had agreements among nations. if we get 12 nations representing the market power that these 12 do, that includes japan, we start to set some rules. we advocate, we lay that playing field then china says maybe we'll make the rules we'll be happy to enter into the weaker unenforceable agreement. i think that's good. one other points on tax real quick. if we don't fix our problem, we have a big movement going on in europe today where they are trying to go after all this revenue that's trapped offshore. earnings from american companies that they can't, won't bring back because of the very, very high tax burden to do so to bing it back to the u.s.. if it's left in europe we're seeing efforts to go after some of the most significant companies in this country and take that revenue. so the talk about repatriation of this corporate profits in washington have been too much talk about how do we help people spend it if they bring it back home rather than let's accept the principle we taught tax it once where it's earned and then let it come home. if we leave it in europe they will try to steal it and we'll end up not only not having the money here but our companies will lose it over there. >> gentlemen thank you both for coming in today. happy st. patrick's day. >> you're very welcome. coming up, more of your money and vote. our very own john harwood sits down with paul ryan and we'll have the highlights next. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. party politics pints of guinness. cnbc john harwood sat down with house speaker paul ryan for a special st. patrick's day edition of his speak easy series to talk entitlements, trade policy and trump. >> we do have a clear front-runner in the republican race. you and donald trump how will that work >> we'll make it work fit happens. i'll speak my mind. i'll defend conservatism as i understand it. i'll defend our ideas. but we'll have to work whoever our nominee is. >> how do you take into account as you shape your agenda the voices of republican voters as expressed in these primaries so far. >> bottom up here in the house. every one of our members is working on this agenda based on getting influence and input from their own constituents. >> you're absorbing the messages of these primaries. >> that's what we do. if you're in the house you're from the people. you are grassroots. you are elected every other year. out of that is the solutions we take to the country and say here's what we'll do if our fellow citizens give us an ability to put it in place. >> are you exploring in your agenda funding the construction of a border wall? >> remember we're not going to pay for that, recall? we think we should secure the border that's for sure. >> maybe not >> you should talk to the task forces how we should secure the border. but one thing that unifies all republicans we should have a secure border. >> on issues of trade and entitlement reform isn't the message that republican voters have been sending they want something more from the republican party than simply freer markets and less government? >> we're in a global economy whether we like it or not and i believe that america should be at the table writing the rules instead of hind. >> the message is no more tratd deals. you're saying that's not what house republicans believe. >> they say no more bad trade deals. donald trump says let's have good trade deals. people aren't saying put up a wall and stop trading with the rest of the world. how can you do that. >> they say don't touch social security or medicare. >> i believe that if we do not prevent medicare from going bankrupt it will go bankrupt and that will be bad for everybody. we have to tackle our debt crisis. we have to tack tell drivers of our debt. i think, i hope that whoever our standard bearer will be will acknowledge that. >> for more from paul ryan go to cnbc.com. coming up jim cramer joins us live from the new york stock exchange. [vet] two yearly physicals down. martha and mildred are good to go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way. look at that, i had my best month ever. and earned a shiny new office upgrade. i run on quickbooks. that's how i own it. at the new york stock exchange, jim cramer joins us now. jim, over the years you've had kind of a non-establishment view of free trade. i've seen you go back and forth in the last couple of days. even though i was in another country i still follow your line of thinking. got to be a better way, right >> i'm with trump on this. look we lose on every trade deal. i ask these people from every party name a trade deal we have a surplus on. they can't name any. i always find it amusing to think people don't mind we're losing these deals because we're able to export a lot of premium products that are not made by people in our workforce. so it always seemed like when are people going to wake up. the only guy who talked about it before this election of donald trump. when you go see him. you know that. you say why do we lose in these trade deals. why didn't we renegotiate. you throw up your hands and say i don't know. there are very few people i ever met. so, no, i have no problem. i think that, you know, people should understand this has been his view from day one and pro worker. seems to me so regulatory. we've known it for a decade. why is it so shock. people pay no attention to what this man has been saying about trade deals. >> it helped increase profitability and corporations want to get more competitive and hire more workers. >> not here. this is an export program. export jobs. >> who you got winning it all? >> kentucky. >> thank you. we'll see you. coming up, a concert proposal which i saw firsthand. bringn london. the lives. the singer spot ad proposal taking place in the audience and brought them up on stage. she does this. i'm a cynic. my family thought it was so sweet. >> you are a cynic and i think it is sweet. steve thanks for being here. that does it for us. happy st. patrick's day. right now time for "squawk on the street". ♪ good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street". i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. the dow starts 99 points break even but futures are soft on weak guidance from caterpillar, williams sonoma. european markets in the red. philly fed just the latest regional survey to surprise to the upside and oil is about a dollar away from the first four handle of the year.