lynch executive bob mccann to head its america's wealth management unit. this appointment was widely expected. mccann had been with merrill for 26 years. ubs's franchise was battered by a tax from the u.s. government. >> i thought that had already happened. i had a friend at ubs and i said, hey, tell mccann i need a big pr job over there and the guy didn't write anything back. so that wasn't already done. >> maybe now the job will be on the way. >> maybe now it will be open. sure. >> meantime, gary loch is in china today. he says the u.s. welcomes the rise in the yuan's exchange rate, but wants the currency to climb further. locke is calling for protection of intellectual property. >> strongly awarded ip laws are only as valuable as the civil and criminal penalties that people face for breaking them. and china's enforcement for ip laws is often uneven and penalties assessed are often too mild. >> president obama visits china next month for talks with president hu jintao. >> who? >> why do i fall for it every time? >> sure. >> the joke is only 50 years old, right? >> the longer they last -- >> that's true. >> -- the better they are. meantime, a leading chinese government economist is forecasting a 0% rise in ex ports from the country next year, calling the prediction conservative, he adds china will keep pro export policies in place. ex ports have been falling year after year. china has scrapped some tax rebates and increased rebates on a wide range of goods in an attempt to boost the sector. the big piece yesterday, i guess china's neighbors aren't real happy that they're tied to the dollar. >> because they have the cheaper currency which makes them the big exporting company. >> they depeged it for a while about a year ago, for 5.3% of a move. then they pegged it right back in and it's hosing all of their neighbors right now. >> is that okay? hosing? >> yeah, okay. >> right. you see? >> right. >> in auto news, chrysler's car company road map is due to be released on november 4th. but that plan involves the reintroduction of fiat's alpha romeo brand to the market in 2012. chrysler will bring fiat's tiny popular car in europe, called the 500 to the americas. fiat and comprise ler are said to be working to create several new vehicles with fiat technology for the u.s. market. joe, you look skeptical. >> i just hope that gas prices go down, i really do. >> so that the big heavy duty -- >> no, but i think if gas prices and oil are going back down and all they're selling here is does she. >> did you see that thing? >> you do not like the alpha romo? >> did you see the cx 500? are we really going to look like portugal? >> it kind of has a smart car look, doesn't it? >> maybe for urban areas. >> it's not going to be your life. you're not going to buy one of these things. >> i saw a guy in a smart car on the road with trucks. >> that's the scary thing. >> did he try to give you a little action, i'll take you -- >> what? >> joe was trying to pull around the right-hand side. i looked in and he looked like, you know, an ivy league professor, which is what you would think. >> tweed. >> yeah, tweed. facial hair. >> look at what i have today. i have the patches. >> facial hair. >> i do have patches. >> but an 18 wheeler, he would turn on the wooil wiper fluid and you wouldn't even know. it would have been like, wow, that was a -- it could have been a large insect. >> well, i think the safety standard ones, they talk about how they perform in a head-on collision, but they measure them up against cars of the same size. >> it locks like a motorcycle, like you'd have as much of a chance. >> and fewer jeeps, i believe, right? >> fewer jeeps, cherokees. well, actually, i was happy about that. they're getting rid of one of the minivans that none of us ever want to end up with, no matter how many kids we have. >> buy the hummer, right? >> yeaea yeah. >> let's get a check on markets on this tuesday morning. we'll be fairly busy. we had decent action in europe, if you're short. the biggest drop in asia in about three weeks. europe has been relatively flat. for the time being here, we're a little above fair value. did you see the vix yesterday? up 9%. >> did the dollar move? >> the dollar had a big move up yesterday and is relatively steady today. but we'll see what happens later on. oil, up about 13 cents. way below the high of $8 and change we saw a couple weeks ago. as you mentioned, joe, gas prices are on the rise in this country. 10-year note at 3.543%. that is about a two-month high on the 10-year yield. the dollar, relatively steady. down after rising yesterday quite a bit against the euro. >> 70 basis points yesterday. and it's been three days of gains. and now it has everybody who has been in a long position doctor orb in a short position against these things worried. >> but we were up over 1.50 euro. now below 1.49. now with a sharply lower dollar across the board, take a look at gold. down 2.60, 1040 down from a high of about $30 higher than a couple of weeks ago. saijal patel is in singapore. first, though, we want to check in with london and our friend, geoff cutmore. >> morning, carl. the europeans have finally found some iron in the blood and we're higher on our european trade at the moment, despite the legacy you guys left us and despite the weakness that we saw in the asian session. so i wouldn't call these big gains right now, but you know what? we'll take them to the upside. a couple of corporate stories that are worth telling you about, we are energy at the top of the gainers on the dow jones stock sectors. we have numbers through from bp, profit halved, but they beat expectations. there was a slightly more negative story that dominated in the banks. the market doesn't like this ing story about them splitting the group into insurance and banking. it hates even more the idea of the 7.5 billion euro rights issue. and we're expecting lloyd's tsb here in the uk to come to the market demanding something like 12 billion pounds and we should get detalts on that this week. right now, we've got a lot of nervousness about the financials and the banksing stocks. but elsewhere were we are higher. let's send it over to singapore and pick up on that asian story. >> yeah, jeff. here like you said, a very weak picture. we had a lot of the resource related stocks leading the losses after oil sell-off for the fourth day, the nikkei retreating from a four-week high, down about 1.5%. exporters fairly weak. after the bell, we did get results from honda and is pretty good numbers. remember, they've been dealing with steep cost cuts, one factor, but they've seen solid sales of their fuel efficient cars and that helped them beat on the operating line. they've tripled the annual operating forecast. we got positive news coming from that space there. as for the greatest china region, this is where we saw a lot of weakness. the shanghai composite tumbling 2.8%. the hang seng index down 1.9%. the hong kong monetary authority looking to curb speculation when it comes to luxurious property prices so we saw a big sell-off on property stocks there. the sensex closing down 2.5%. the rba leaving rates on hold. some unwinding when it comes to monetary tightening. this has to do with the statutory liquidity ratio which means commercial banks have to hold 25% of their deposits in government securities. it's up from 24% inspect reality, they tend to hold more than that, anyway, but just the official comment there sparking a sell-off in the barngs and, of course, dragging that market lower, as well. on that note, back to joe. >> saijal, thanks. let's get to our tuesday market task force. join using this morning in studio, both individuals are here. richard steinberg of global asset management and michelle girard. normally the person here i would talk to first because they made the effort, but you're both here. but then i was going to go to michelle because of ladies first, but now i have to go to him to talk about financial markets and then find out if the economic back drop makes sense. 10% down would be my calculation. is this the correction we've been waiting for finally? >> well, it could be, but the good thing, joe, is it's orderly. we've had a couple of days where people have tried to pick things up. we're not getting confusion or major, major chaos in the markets. it's been an orderly transition from an overly bulis situation off of earnings in the short run to more realism. 2010 is where people will start to focus on earnings now. as you have the risk coming out of the market, it's a healthy chance for people to get a second bite at the apple. >> well, i think 2010 might be one of the things people are worried about with the market. there is a perception that maybe this quarter and next quarter we get a snap back from inventory rebuilds. then we don't quite double dip, but we may be seeing good quarters now only to fall back. >> that's the debate. you're absolutely right, joe. everybody has come around to the second half of the year is going to be strong. we thought it would be strong pretty much all along based on inventories and it would be a surprise because of cash for clunkers. and actually just some fundamental strengthening, even the demand side has done better in here. so it isn't just inventories. the economy itself has gotten better. but as i said, now what the pessimists are arguing is it won't be sustained and will fall off in 2010. we don't really think so. i think by next year, what will happen is you see see more solidly a transition from a catchup in production, which is what the inventory growth is. what will happen next year, i think more fully, is that you will see pent up demand from the consumer start to show itself because everybody has just really been hunkered down on concerns that the economy, when some of those fears fade, the consumer will come back more fully as income growth recovers and i think even on the business side, we're hearing talk on capital spending going up. i think that will be a part of the story in 2010, as well. >> yesterday the dollar was strong. oil was weak and gold was weak and that caused the stocks to sell off. there have been articles written that gold and equities very rarely move in tandem and they have recently. >> well, everything -- you know, quite honestly, stocks and bonds don't usually move in tandem. and the bigger trend, obviously, has been stocks have been moving higher. bonds prices have been moving higher. gold is up. the dollar -- what ties this altogether? it's liquidity. it's liquidity. liquidity is lifting all boats, if you will. >> fed liquidity is not causing lenders to lend. >> it's not getting through to the economy. it's moving into the financial markets, which for the fed is a little bit, i think, of a problem. because you're seeing what's happening, that cash has to be put to work. banks aren't necessarily lending it, so it isn't showing up in terms of feeding its way through the economy. the fixed income markets are doing well and people who are getting zero percent interest rates or .5% interest rates are looking to buy stocks. >> it's not just people, it's institutions. >> exactly. >> how does the fed break that logjam or do they have any way of doing it? >> well, they really don't because they can't necessarily control how that money gets put to work. that's why you have people who are already calling for the fed to be pulling back on this liquidity, because you see some of it bibling up worry solemnly in the financial markets. but again, i think the fed is very hesitant to draets that issue while the economy looks vulnerable. >> and we're not getting anything for it, either. maybe we're getting some assets. rich, eventually, if you took the dollar -- you know, if the market goes up every time the dollar goes down, when you get to zee roe for the dollar, the market won't like that. you can't keep doing this, can you? >> i think the debate that will start to happen when we're talking about the dollar is that when we go into the next cycle of earnings and people are looking for revenue growth, analysts now say, well, that's weak dollar related. is it going to be organic revenue growth or are we going to have a debate where people will back out the dollar on earnings and revenue. and i think if the dollar can stabilize or go weaker but you get the demand to come back, like we were just talking about, then you could get an orderly slight weakness of the dollar and have the markets bhief themselves. >> why wouldn't the dollar start strengthening when the fed starts raising rates? >> because i don't know if the fed is going to be willing to raise rates until the second half of next year -- >> that could happen, 2010 before we get the slightest uptick. >> in rates? that can't be. >> well, you have a huge amount 06 etfs that will starts to suck up the liquidity and we'll have to see how institutions handle the demand that's coming from these etfs and we'll start to see, are we going to see a 4% 10-year note? those are some of the benchmarks that we'll be looking at and i think the fed will be looking at that stuff closely. >> do you think the second half? >> we're june. >> really? not a basis point uptick from the fed until june? >> no. and let's remember, the fed is still going to be buying mortgage securities, you know, expanding its balance sheet, adding liquidities into the system until the end of march. it's hard for the fed to be thinking about raising rates on one hand and expanding easing on the other. >> there's a school of thought that says the president, although it's not his decision to make, would prefer they err on the side of overheating going into a november election, right? >> i thought you were going to see the president wants them to hike early and i was going to see, absolutely not. >> they wouldn't mind this bubble raising more, right? >> i have to tell you, chairman bernanke isn't going to make that mistake. they're going to wait -- if they wait until the middle of next year, we could possibly have had four quarters of above trend growth by then or very close to it. they're waiting a long time. what i think is the surprise is that when they start to go, they'll go more adegrees ofly. >> rich, we've heard that saying stance from a lot of people. if that's the case and you're trying to find ways to protect your investment, do you worry about inflation? is there hyper inflation? what do you start investing in if the fed waits too lodge? >> it's a great point and it's a dress situation because investors have been piling into the commodity trade as that hedge and gold and we know how volatile those markets can be. and you can really get side swiped. so what we've been doing is on the fixed income side, we're keeping durations shorter and shorter right now and we're trying to get more than zee ree percent that the money markets are paying and we're going to ride out this cycle in the short run. investors want to stretch for yield right now, but they can really get burned. so it's better, you know, i think the markets will allow a certain amount of short-term rates to tick up some, but i think we're going to be in a situation where there's not a huge place to hide until we see how quickly the fed, when they do turn, starts to increase rates again. >> rich, do you think we see 9 thoous or 11,000 or are you predicting in we're in the trading range? >> i think we could test the lower end of the range. i've been wrong in the downside levels of the market. i thought veld have tested 950 a while ago. but on the s&p, we've bumped that from 975 to 1,000 now. 75 in earnings next year, you could have upside to 1100, 1125 by the end of the year. >> you think we're in a correction right now? >> mild. >> 10%? >> 5% to 0%. >> it seems like we went sidewayes and moved back up. >> we could be into the end of next year. you have to realize, the administration is talking out of both sides of its mouth on the dollar, also. they need this weak dollar to keep the economy going and to keep ex ports going. you're going to have the dollar debate and a lot of moving parts going into the end of the year. in the model that i run with in the term, i've kept the 5% hedge on the portfolio and have let our longs continue to stay long. and i am deciding when to take that hedge off. >> so if caterpillar had numbers out yesterday, they're going to hire back some more workers, there's a story that the weak dollar allowed manufacturers to bring back workers that -- >> but they're laying other people off at the same time, though. if employment heals quicker than we think, is that market positive or do people start looking past that to rates that will be going up sooner than we think? >> i think that would cause rates to go up sooner than we think, but it's not enough competition to other asset classes, right? if you have rates that are still on the 4% level and people need to live off of their income, it doesn't matter if it's an endowment or an institution, there's a huge gap that rates have to go up before it allows them to feed themselves off their capital ideal. >> so the market will be the more attractive yield? for now. >> rich and michelle, thank you guys fog coming in. it's nice to have you guys sitting around the table with us this morning. early in the morning and we have visitors. coming up, we'll get to your business traveler's forecast and then their products are used in every major industry around the world. chemicalmaker selanese stops by with a weak outlook on the economy. first as we get to a break, let's look at yesterday's winners and losers. 150 years of legendary financial strength and the proven experience of a leading investment firm have come together. wachovia securities is now wells fargo advisors, with financial advisors nearby and nationwide. for the advice and planning expertise you need to address today's unique challenges, we're with you. wachovia securities is now wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. if factory floor. voting should be completed by saturday. dmraxo smith cline and genmac to sell their leukemia drug. that decision had been widely expected. right now, it's time for our business traveler's forecast. scott williams of the weather channel is here. scott, what can you tell us about the weather today? >> good morning, becky. we will see problems later on as we move into portions of the the northeast. right now, no current airport delays as we take a look at the map here. you can see quiet conditions. but over on the active radar, this is what we are tracking. moisture continuing to move out of the nation's capital. baltimore up through philadelphia, eventually moving into new york city. so the cloud cover, low ceilings and the rainfall will likely cause airport delays in rgz pos of the northeast. meanwhile, if you are traveling down to the world's busiest airport, look for delays, as well. so as we look at some of the potential airport delays across the country as we move in time here, across the area, we will expect airport delays. as far as the overall scenario for the entire nation, this is what we continue to watch here as far as airport delays possible. atlanta, new york city, salt lake city, also as we move into washington, d.c. keep it here, as always, for more updates. now back to you. >> we're going to look at more upgrades and downgrades. looks positive. 3 upgrades, 1 gown grade. upgraded to outperform from market perform at fbr capital with a $31 price target. cablevision upgraded to outperform from market perform at wells fargo. verizon has been upgraded to outperform from market perform at wells fargo. also you can see that that stock has been weak recently. and i guess -- >> they're up 9% from the lows in march or the markets up 50? >> yeah. of course, it didn't quite get hit as much. it was a defensive play. we were