Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20130316 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money March 16, 2013



hi, i'm cramer. cramer. cramer. cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. remember that? i just want to make you money. money. money. money. money. for the past eight years, my job has and continues to be not just to entertain you but to educate you. so on this fabulous eighth anniversary of "mad money," i want you to continue to call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. welcome to the eighth anniversary edition of "mad money." not a great day for an anniversary although the dow broke its winning streak. i'll be unabashed about it. sinking 25 points. nasdaq declining -- i realized regular people that play this game needed help. you needed guidance from someone impartial who wasn't after your fees, didn't want your commissions. in short, you needed an investing coach. i've been trying to fill that role every night five nights a week ever since. so tonight to mark the show's fantastic eighth anniversary, we're going to do the exact same thing we always do, help you try to make some money the best way we know how. let's get into it. start with the game plan. we've got a smatter of earnings coming out. before we get to that focus on the event that will control the market next week, there's not too much to this because wednesday there's a federal reserve meeting. i'm going to be blunt. from now on we are on fbfh watch. what's that? go on, haven't you been watching around here? fbfh is the fed bull from hell. that's my new term on how so many people are focused on when the fed is going to stop buying the bonds it accumulates every single month to keep your interest rates low, your mortgage low. and when is the fed going to start selling its to stock boosting in the stock market. so many prognosticators think in one of these meetings, maybe this one, bernanke will signal that things have, oh, no, gotten better. and that's code, that's code for the great unwind is upon us, that the fed bull from hell is unleashed from on high and nobody ever made a dime getting hit by lightning. so if we sell off in wednesday's meeting, you know it's the fear or the fbfh at work, okay? repeat after me. when the fed starts selling its bonds, that's the end of the world. isn't that what people say? except for fuddy duddy old me. we're trying to make money or save money. you know i like tech. it's the part of the stock market that's still cheap. has been buying a bunch of tech stocks. but there's one sector of tech i want you to avoid like the plague. it's the personal computer sector. i think it's being challenged by smartphones with the new samsung announcement, tablets, competition is cut throat beyond all belief. that segment of the industry is in what we call secular decline, it's still going lower. with that in mind, i think you should take action on monday morning. i want you to sell dell. you own dell, it goes, okay. it is now on the single biggest sell, sell, sell list i've ever had. right now michael dell is trying to take the company private for little less than where the stock is currently trading. i sat wrapped this morning on "squawk on the street" sitting next to david faber. when he detailed the shocking decline, you know when we're on tv and a guy's saying stuff and, geez, really? he was telling me the shocking decline in cash flow dell has experienced since the steel started percolating, dell is doing terribly. i'm confident the stock will go $8 and change. it was shortly before the deal was announced. you cannot be in dell, people. it is dangerous now. i believe you must ring the register first thing monday morning. yes, it is dangerous. and you have to sell dell. hey, dude, get out of dell. tuesday we get february housing starts. right now bulls are saying we could build as many as one million homes this year. i think because of the inventory shortage we could need as many as 1.2 million homes. make no mistake housing and -- two big drivers of this economy and i think we'll be pleasantly surprised when we get this housing starts number. of course, the fed bull from hell crowd will ratchet up their bets. that lightning will strike on wednesday if they see a strong number. and i think they will be, unfortunately, unpleasantly surprised when they see it because nobody in that crowd wants to see any good. i actually like things that are good. old fashioned. housing's so strong that it's lifting all boats including brunswick by the way and the housewares. so let's listen to william sonoma conference call on their earnings on tuesday to be sure the carryover's intact. now, i'm thinking this may be long in our ever expanding great index or maybe it's the greater gatsby index. i once bought a pot for like $200. it was a big, round cast iron, red thing and then i saw it at the jersey shore outlet for almost half the price. and i am still kicking myself. eighth anniversary, nothing's changed. now, we use a ton of gauges to measure things like retail sales and employment around here that are bottoms up, meaning we look at what individual companies are telling us. how about the nation's largest uniform company cintas reports on tuesday. and insists sales are strong. that's a good precursor for next month's employment number. i'll follow up with the information later, don't buy the stock it's had too much of a move. i know nothing will come close to the all important on the heels fed meeting. on the heels, i have heels, nothing's ever on them. i got $59 at jersey shore outlet, two for a hundred. wednesday we'll get a report from the best barometer of international trade i know, and that's fed ex. the company always gives you worldwide outlook. it's ceo is a trained economist, so he gives you a vigorous and perhaps sobering global update. you want cheap tech, go with j bill, i believe about to start regaining its old growth path. this used to be a high flying tech when tech was en vogue. give it another quarter. this one might be effective by lumpy apple orders. and i bet it returns to greatest after this one. thursday we get a play reporting that acts terribly. lululemon. i think lululemon can be the nike for women's clothes, but i also know it's highly valued and retail is choppy right now. so let's be cautious ahead of this name, as cautious as i am about nike, which also reports thursday. let's take passes on both, okay? however, i'm going to stick my neck out and say that i think ross stores seems to be at the right spot. it is hard to keep a good retailer down, and ross reports on thursday. and it might be a smart place to go if you're looking for a post-fed meeting play. meaning if the fed causes the market to go down, maybe circle into ross between 230 and 4. on friday we have two reports from companies with stocks that have been defying gravity, darden and tiffany. these two are failing upwards. darden missed last two quarters estimates with disappointing numbers with olive garden and red lobster. tiffany's missed three quarters in a row. we just learned that qatar or qatar investment 10% owner just bought 823,000 shares. i would not chase this great member up at these levels. however, if it gets hammered on the report, if they come after tiffany, this diamond and silver company stock is coated with teflon. so i would do some buying. it's not tiffany's so much as tefloni. bottom line, reported earnings including nike, fed ex, lulu lemon, but this is about the fear of the fed bull from hell. so wednesday's fed meeting is literally like it or not the only real event that matters. why don't we take some phone calls? eighth anniversary, we still take phone calls. jim in florida. jim. >> caller: how about a big boo-yah. >> huh? >> caller: how about a nice booyah for our new pope. >> yes. yes. how thrilling is that? i was thrilled about that. that will be great. what's up? >> caller: blackberry, bbly. >> yeah. >> caller: it looks like they have good sales generated, and they've got good foreign interests. is it a good time to buy right now? >> this stock trades 1215, 1215, 1212. wait until it gets back to 12 to trade it again. right now i fear you may be behind the eight-ball if you buy blackberry. another year older and wiser. lots of earnings out from big companies this week, but the most important, it's the wednesday fed meeting. it could actually be the only thing that matters. our eighth anniversary celebration is just getting started. i was excited about this. all night we're highlighting memorable moments since the show began. and remember, your opinion counts. you voted online for your favorite moment. and we'll reveal the viewer's choice at the end of the show as we go to break, that's for commercial, i want to rewind to a moment i'll never forget which proves that panic is not a strategy. >> p&g is now down 25%. >> if that's true, that stock is there, you go and buy it. it can't be there. that is not a real price. >> that is liquidating. >> 49.25 bid for 50,000 proctor, proctor just jumped 7 points. i buy 50,049, flip it at 59. i just paid 500 gs. the machine's broke down. greatest story never told. you'll never know what happened there. >> coming up, sailing for a spec. the dry bulk shippers have been scraping along the bottom of this market, but as global trade takes off, could these boats finally be buoyant? cramer's hopping aboard to find which of these shipping stocks could navigate a turnaround. and later, ridiculous returns. we are eight years young today, and to celebrate cramer's looking at some of the top-performing stocks since we've been on the block. can they continue to soar over the next eight? plus, drug money diagnosis. as "mad money" gets older, we've become more focused on keeping healthy. and few stocks bring good health to mind more than merck. shares have been lagging this market's red-hot run, but could its prognosis soon improve? cramer's putting it under his x-ray vision to find out. all coming up on "mad money." "mad money." jim cramer. >> jim cramer. >> in the world of cable news famous, jim cramer is seriously famous. >> this money manager literally rolls up his sleeves to host cnbc's "mad money"? >> jim cramer. >> jim cramer. >> you have to be nuts to understand the market, and i am nuts about the market. it's a triple sell. don't buy. >> don't buy? >> i'm grounded and spend all day listening to my dad yell at "mad money" with jim cramer. >> bottom line, everything's going to be fine. stark industries. that's a weapons company that doesn't make weapons. >> sit in front of the tv and watch "mad money" all day long. >> are you okay? >> oh, yeah, it's nothing. i was a guest on "mad money" last night. >> what's happening? okay, stop. stop it. >> hello fellow facebookers, i'm here to do one thing, get you, more friends. >> there is one guy i like, he gives it to you straight. >> it's "mad money" with jim cramer. >> what's up with the stock market? >> i don't know. what's up with your face? >> can that be jim cramer from cnbc's "mad money"? >> i have brought in a financial heavy-hitter. >> please welcome jim cramer. >> i was stupid -- >> don't say that. you don't have -- it's very hard. >> math's stupid. >> yes. >> "mad money's" jim cramer. >> jim cramer. >> look. and then you get mad. >> mr. cramer, are you the tv personality who regularly shouts and badgers on "mad money"? >> i think badger's debatable, but, yes, i have a dare you say flamboyant personality. >> you could try hitting some buttons. >> you have beautiful eyes. >> the president wasn't as favored this morning as jim cramer. >> i've never seen the president -- >> we're joined now by cnbc's jim cramer and former chairman of the federal reserve, alan greenspan. >> i got my own show. very lucky guy i am. thank you. for "mad money"'s eighth anniversary show, i'm going to come out here and do the same thing i try to do every single night, teach you how to be a better investor and help you identify stocks that have a potential to go a whole lot higher. even though this market finally broke the fabulous ten-day winning streak, this session, it's so incredibly difficult to find stocks that represent truly dirt cheap values out there. so many things have rise and tide, lifted all boats. ha, that's why as part of this eighth anniversary version of speculation friday i want to draw your attention to a sector that hasn't really participated in this rally at all. even though it's going to benefit from a global economic recovery that you know i see happening, i'm talking about the dry bulk shipping industry. the business of transporting commodities like coal, iron ore and grain across the ocean, dry bulk shippers are heavily tied to the emerging economies in asia, which have a veracious appetite for the commodities they transport. you measure the strength of these companies using a thing called the baltic dry freight index which tracks day rates, how much it costs to rent, for dry bulk shippers. this index used to be a fairly important measure of the global economy. but too many ships, and the only thing the baltic dry index has told us is that it's a real lousy business to be a shipper. it had its worst performance in 26 years, falling over 41%. thanks to worries about a chinese slowdown as well as an oversupply of ships. in fact, when you look at -- sorry. when you look back, the baltic dry index has been in a giant down trend ever since it peaked in may of 2008. the index hit a low of 661 last fall. but i believe we're seeing signs of a bottom in the baltic dry index could at last finally be able to climb. in fact, it's already rebounded off its lows. it's up 26% year-to-date. so why do i think it's bottomed? the fact is, dry bulk shipping rates simply can't get much lower than where they are now. when rates go this low, they make up a low this level, the ship owners stop taking them on voyages because they don't earn enough to cover the cost of the trip, the hate boat. things are so bad they literally can't get much worse. the dry bulk space goes through periodic times. it can take years to fill orders. so when things take a turn for the worse, the market gets choked with additional supply for many years in the future. 2013 marks the sixth year of overcapacity in the industry. six years it's been a bad business. however, there are signs that dry bulk shippers could be approaching an inflection point. the pessimism about the business meant they're ordering fewer and fewer new ships and now they're starting to scrap older ships at record levels. that's how you get to the point where the day rates can bottom. doesn't have to do with world trade but fewer ships. that's how the industry recovers. in fact, we're seeing the same thing happen in other types of shipping stocks. for example, the oil tanker business is at long last getting stronger with not a dread, nordic american tankers finally breaking to the upside with a 6.7% yield and a better day rate. i am, are you ready skee-daddy, giving you the blessing, buy, buy, buy, to buy nordic american tanker right here. did i really say that? yeah. plus, a number of very smart distressed debt money managers are starting to focus on the dry bulk sector. wilbur ross jr. rang the bell this morning looking for a new private equity fund that's going to buy distressed shipping and other transportation assets. meanwhile, private equity outfits sniffing around. blackstone, remember they bought housing at the bottom, they're betting on recovery in shipping. these are smart guys. we want to invest alongside them. in the dry bulk, there are only three publicly traded companies that are left. there used to be about 20 of them. diana shipping, navios maritime partners. i think diana, simple, dsx is the only one to own. this is an $8.88 stock. hey, you know what? that's good karma in itself. because this is our -- what'd they do with my little eight-balls? anyway, it's our eighth anniversary. so we got an $8 stock. and i've got three -- it has to work just alone on that, right? anyway, it's got a stock market capitalization of $730. why diana? okay. what got most dry bulk shippers into trouble was that they used a great deal of leverage to buy a lot of ships back at the peak of the cycle before the financial crisis hit. then the companies got crushed as day rates plummeted and values of ships sank. 2008, a cape size vehicle, that's the largest size of dry bulk ship costs around $155 million. do you know that same 5-year-old ship is only $34 million? that's about an 80% decline. unlike the other players though, diana used less leverage instead raised equity and built up a cash horde. 92% of their available days this year are covered by more defensive one- to two-year time charter agreements. these things allow the company to hold up much better than it's competitors. even though i think the dry bulk industry might be bottoming, it's still bad enough that i want to stick with the safest player. diana, best of breed. you know how we always like best of breed. nothing's changed in eight years. beyond that looking into 2014, management is somewhat shifted to somewhat shorter duration times. that's good. they think rates are going higher. so they locked in rates when they could, and now they think it's going higher. meanwhile diana's used the weakest in the dry bulk market. buying ships at ultralow prices buying at a time when no one else can. why? because they kept relatively clean balance sheet. company can purchase $900 million worth of ships. and as day rates recover for dry bulk, the value of those ships will increase dramatically. if secondhand ships return to the reversion to the mean, that would be 77% higher than where they are now. so this diana, what a fabulous opportunity. and it's been the one you've been taking advantage of for the past two years. diana's right. now, the stock is less than -- it's moved. it's less than 50 cents off of its 52-week high, but currently trading at a 4.5% discount with $9.29. if i'm right about the dry bulk space, the value of those assets should increase dramatically over the next 18 months for this $8.88 stock. here's the bottom line, if you believe that the bulk dry index could be bottoming, as i do, then the best way to play it is with dsx diana shipping. remember, speculative stock, $8.88, buy in small increments $8.88, buy in small increments and i beg you limit, not market orders. jeremy in new york, jeremy. >> caller: hey, jim, do you think live up to expectations and be a multimillion dollar company they say it will be? where's that company headed? >> no. no. that's not going to happen. you want logistics. frankly, if you want logistics, i'm going to send you to united parcel. i'm a conservative fella. the shipping sector's been freight full lately, like frightful. anyway, i think it's bottomed. best way to play is with a spec, it's with diana. this is an $8.88 stock, and we didn't just do it because it's our eighth anniversary, although i kind of like that. don't move. much more to come as our eighth anniversary celebration continues. four investors, what is your advice today? >> okay. whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now this week. i do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market. >> even if you were to take a tremendous loss in selling your stocks at this decline, you say take it out? >> i do not care where stocks have been. i do not care where stocks have been. i care where they're going, and i don't want people to get hurt in this market. >> coming up, ridiculous returns. we are eight years young today, and to celebrate cramer's looking at some of the top performing stocks since we've been on the block. can they continue to soar over the next eight? this is going to be the most important useful class you'll ever take in any university anywhere. texas, tulane, virginia. >> we love "mad money." >> get fired up. get fired up. welcome to "mad money" 101

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