Money trade as it relates to energy, and the oil bottoming, and the u. S. Dollar, and that has ended. I would take the chips that one might have and a materials, energy, lower dow type of trades and move them elsewhere. Myself, i bought some puts in the xle, and the xlb in the last couple of days. You sold all of the holdings on friday . Yes, and i told friends that i had in energy names to do the same. And i truly believe it is the dynamic as it relates to the currency, and steve has often talked about what has changed fundamentally as it relates to oil, and not very much. It is a currency story, and the reversal to dday is power nfl t u. S. Tlar where it was this morning and where it is right now, and that trade is now past for 2016. You sis the other side of it . No, i tend to be with joe. And we have been talk about the dollar for how long on the desk, and talking about this, and the energy and how we have been correlated with the market and that has not broken. People have come on
Weakerthanexpected manufacturing data and the brutal 3. 6 decline in the chinese stock market last night. How can this clearly bad Economic News produce such a remarkable run . Dow climbing 229 points, s p jumping, nasdaq gaining 1. 14 . Is this opposite day . Perhaps the market lost its mind . No, its like weve entered bizarreo world with bad news is good news. Why . The uglier the backdrop, the more likely the Federal Reserve stands pat and refuses to raise rates when it concludes its deliberation this is thursday. This fed meeting, like it or not and you know i dont like it is the most important event of 2015 for two reasons i dont recall a more opaque fed. Its driving me crazy its about to render a momentous decision that will surprise people. Second, the consequences of a rate hike, listen, youre not going to get that plus and minus stuff for america its plain negative for stocks but the upside from the no hike while positive as we saw in todays action perhaps stolen by from a ben
Spare cash . Whats the consumer buying . These are the questions that plague all Portfolio Managers as they try to follow the money. Right now theyre leaving you in some shocking directions including today where the dow declined. Nasdaq also dipped 3. 2 . First let me just say the single biggest buzz on wall street today, the most salient gut wrenching story is this shocking decline in the business in the stock of the iconic retailer that is macys. While few people actually expected macys to do well in an environment where the globe seems to be warming right in front of our very eyes, todays sharp selloff on some really bad earnings kind of took our breaths collectively away. As the chairman and ceo said at the very beginning of his really i think very disconcerting Conference Call, we had a very tough quarter. We are clearly disappointed with the 3. 6 decline in Comp Store Sales of owned and licensed businesses. And the 8 drop in earnings per share. We believe that the retail industry
Heres the rub. It may feel familiar in terms of the magnitude of the decline to mr. Lundgren, but it isnt familiar when it comes to the reasons for the dropoff. The last time we had such a sharp decline in sales as lundgren talks about later in his Conference Call was after the fall of lehman brothers. Sales just stopped back then. That was the recessisi and then morphed inin the greatest recession. Were not experiencing anything like that cataclysmic systemic event right now. In fact, this is whats so hard to understand. Its just the opposite. Last friday we had the best employment report in ages. Less than a week ago. Were seeing meaningful wage growth, again a first. Unemployment belowow . If you didnt know a a better youd think its time for the band to strike up happy days are here again. Things abe so strong on the job front we can fully expect Federal Reserve to raise rates when they meet in december. How can they not . A victory lap can be justified, even if i think its unnecess
Today, the most salient gut wrenching story is this shocking decline in the business in the stock of the iconic retailer that is macys. While few people actually expected macys to do well in an environment where the globe seems to be warming right in front of our very eyes, todays sharp selloff on some really bad earnings kind of took our breaths collectively away. As the chairman and ceo said at the very beginning of his really i think very disconcerting Conference Call, we had a very tough quarter. We are clearly disappointed with the 3. 6 decline in Comp Store Sales of owned and licensed businesses. And the 8 drop in earnings per share. We believe that the retail industrys going through a tough period that we seem to experience Something Like this every five to seven years or so. And this one feels familiar in that regard. Aha. Heres the rub. It may feel familiar in terms of the magnitude of the decline to mr. Lundgren, but it isnt familiar when it comes to the reasons for the dropo