today at its lows. look at the intraday movement. down more than 200 points this morning. then back. volatility, kel, we talked about it yesterday, is back and back in a big way. >> that's right. the vix above 17. that's one gauge of what's happening. plenty of people are going to be trying to figure out whether what's happened in january stays in january or means anything for the rest of the year. >> how about the nasdaq? the nasdaq actually a short time ago went positive. >> yes. and it was down 1.5%. it was an ugly trading session to start things off. overnight we had again, some movements on emerging market currencies. a lot of focus on the yen. it's the new year in china, so that concern has gone away for the time being, but at 8:00 p.m. tonight, just a couple hours, we'll get more data, an update on how the world's second biggest economy is doing. >> an hour to go in the month and literally anything can happen in that time. joining us diane garnic steve east chris burtleson, rob morgan from fulcrum securities our own rick santelli is with us as well. diane, it's good to talk to you. what do you make of this volatility? is this the way it's going to be? >> i am so happy to have january behind us and over. you know this has been one of the most difficult months. it's been, gosh almost a year and a half since we've had a period this difficult. >> is that -- that's a good thing though right? for the health of the market this thing wasn't going to go straight up forever. >> look it's really important to remember 49% of the companies have reported already. if you think about what's happening, companies are not only giving downward guidance they're also quietly reporting increases in cash on hand. that means it's the sixth consecutive quarter where we have an increase in cash. that has to be good on a go forward basis. what are companies going to do? they can do stock buybacks. they could do mergers and acquisitions or increased dividends. absolutely i think now is a really good time to look at the equity market because this cash has got to get put to work and it's going to get put to work soon. >> chris a lot of people in this market are just hanging on and hoping it doesn't get too much worzse, but for those people who moved out at the end of last year, do you think we're at an entry point yet? >> i don't think so yet. let's see how this trades now that the juice from the fed is being removed. over the next six to nine months we'll see how well stocks behave without the fed tailwind. >> rob morgan in deciding whether to put money in or not, there's huge outflows this week in not only u.s. equity funds but emerging market equity funds. what are we to make of that? what does that mean longer term? >> i would tend to agree with diane, scott. i think that, you know, it wasn't -- the market wasn't going to go up -- straight up through the rest of this year like it did almost all last year. we knew we'd get some kind of pullback and i think stocks are attractively priced here. technically there hasn't been a tremendous amount of damage done, and the retail investor -- diane was talking about the fact that corporations have cash on hand. the retail investor still hasn't gotten back in the market in a big way. i think this is going to be a very healthy consolidation, pull back for the market and i feel pretty confident going forward for the rest of the year with stocks. >> chris, you mentioned six to nine months while we figure out how the world looks as the fed tries to do less qe, but what do you do in the meantime? do you look for individual ports in the storm? do you look towards municipal bonds, other kinds of fixed income? >> i think you buy short-term high yield instruments, minc those that will give you four or five or 6% yields and you're comfortable waiting because i think this year we'll be back end loaded. it's a midterm election year. i have looked at them back to 1950. usually there's a lot of happy talk but it doesn't start until the third and fourth quarter. >> rick i realize this is like throwing chum to a great white shark but i'm going to do it anyway. there are those who are wondering if you look what's happening overseas you wonder whether the central banks around the world are out of bullets. >> you know i don't look at it as out of bullets. i look at it more like no central bank should look at their supply of bullets in an unlimited fashion. and, you know, we understand meaning market participants, that central banks have to try to affect the equation when times get dicey, but the longevity of this particular chapter and the fact that the unintended consequences or even more importantly the very much consequences that we see down the road often get ignored. to that end and i want to jump ahead on the charts i had a couple tens, there was a lot of talk this morning about 1929 and current market conditions. tom demark has been looking at the following two charts for a long time and, of course i'm going to put a boilerplate. i'm not saying it's going to happen this way but it is quite eerie. the first chart is the dow between 38 and28 and 30. the second chart is the s&p from 1929. one thing i can tell you as an old trader and technician, human behavior is repetitive. that's why technical analysis in many ways does work. it's being objective and trying to read what it says that's the issue. >> to that point what do you think has turned markets around a little bit. i say that as the dow looks like it's heading back towards a triple digit loss. we did see big equity outflows last month. the biggest since mid 2012. is that a mistake? >> well i don't think it's necessarily a mistake given what's happened to the markets. as to what turned the markets around today, who really knows. it's been very volatile. an interesting story in the wall street journal about the bundesbank withdrawing its opposition to unstirlerilized qe in europe. that may have been what helped turn the market today. >> this is a great point, especially because i'm sure the fed would like a little bit of help from other global central banks and people have overlooked, chris final word to you, the extent to which other central banks have been tightening. if it's ultimately because the macropicture is stronger then people would be crazy not to ride out the volatility, correct? >> absolutely. i think what everybody thinks alike, watch out. it's a situation where everyone can be leaning the wrong way. just because the economy is good doesn't mean that the markets are going to be good. who knows what it is. asian contagion, terrorist event at sochi, but something could happen that could throw this off kilter right away. >> everybody down here has been talking for two days about the reallocation and with the underperformance of equities and the overperformance of treasuries, the buying we see in stocks and the selling we've seen in treasuries today, it does fit. >> oh absolutely. absolutely it does rick. thank you very much guys to all of you. of course, we want to turn now to market veteran bob dalp. bob, thank you for calling in. after we're registering some significant losses in january, is now the buying opportunity? >> we're getting there. i'm not sure the selling squall is over, kelly. i think that we still have to deal with the fact that we have the liquidity issues we have the fed moving from multi years of pedal to the floor. they're beginning to ease up on that. earnings have not picked up a whole lot. we have to deal with some pretty soft economic numbers as a result of the cold and the snow and the ice. so right now, you know, is not the most pleasant time. i think we'll end the year higher than where we are. >> you've been maintaining that thought. overreaction do you think to what's going on overseas in the emerging markets. >> i don't think so. the equity market is only 4-ish percent off an all-time high. i don't think it's an overreaction. we have some issues, no question about it. >> what are you watching now, bob? a lot of people over the weekend are going to be trying to gauge -- when they're not watching the super bowl trying to gauge whether there are signs of panic. in other words, even if the fundamentals are strong you can't ignore what markets are doing. what's on your dashboard at this point? >> you have to watch all the credit spreads that give indication about stress in the system. and to date there's a little bit but not a lot in my view. i think we continue to watch the developments for the economy. my view is the developed markets, almost all of them will have a stronger economic year this year last last and the emerging markets will have some deceleration given the issues we're talking about and some of them are still struggling with inflation. so overall the globe will have stronger growth. part of the curse is stronger growth meaning a little less liquidity left for the financial markets. >> at the same time, bob, as long as bonds continue to rise stocks are going to have a problem, aren't they? >> yeah. i think it's a little bit the other way around but i agree that that's the direction we're going. when we get the selling squalls, stocks go down. big stocks go down less. bonds tend to go up in price. commodities tend to struggle. the dollar tends to go up. we're in that trade at the moment. i think that's the counter trend trade, but it's not over. >> if i would have told you when the year started that the ten-year yield would be where it was -- where it is today, you would have said you're crazy, it's not going to happen. >> that's probably right. it's come down quite a bit. but if you look at a longer term chart, we're registering higher highs and higher lows in yields as the world slowly but surely heals with these bumps along the way and i think the rates will continue to irregularly move higher. >> bob doll thank you for your time this afternoon. >> have a good weekend. >> you, too. >> you the same. enjoy the super bowl. 50 minutes to go before this week ends on the street. dow is it down 102 points on this final trading day in january. could be the first down january for the market in a few years, since 2010. >> exactly. >> you know what they say about january. >> as goes january, so -- isn't there a super bowl indicator as well? >> there probably is. >> we have more top money managers standing by to tell you whether this is a buying opportunity or not. is there more trouble ahead for the bulls? that discussion coming up. and we want to any whether you are ready to buy this dip. tweet us @cnbcclosingbell. your thoughts on the subject later on. also investors are pulling money from emerging markets at a record rate. so where is it all flowing to? jonathan steinberg, he is the head of the giant exchange traded funds company wisdomtree weighs in. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. mine was earned in korea in 1953. afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment t your thoughts on the subject business worldwide. and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. welcome back. more earnings on wall street and more selling in the stock market. although we're well off the lows of the day, just to remind you we're down just 100 points on the dow. seema mody rounds up all the earnings and the affect they're having on stock today. >> we're going to begin with mattel. the toymaker posting weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings. sales tell fell 10% in north america. international sales were flat. sales of its barbie and fisher-price preschool items slid 13% and that's what seems to be worrying the street. mastercard fell after they posted weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings and revenue. they said its net revenue for the year would come in at the lower end of forecasts. on the flip side tyson foods better than expected first quarter results boosted by higher chicken and beef sales. they reaffirmed sales and meat production for 2014. it did warn that a virus will cut pork production by 2% to 4%. but we end with manitowoc. posting better than expected fourth quarter earnings. just an fyi, we hit the halfway mark in earnings and nearly 70% have beat street expectations. that's much higher than the historical average of 63%, so just some perspective as we enter into the second half of earnings season. scott? >> seema, thanks very much. speaking of things that are coming up after 17 weeks and 256 games played in the regular season, the big one is finally here. super bowl xlviii the denver broncos/seattle seahawks kicking off sunday evening at metlife stadium in new jersey. >> the broncos have already won two and they're looking for a third. seattle, on the other hand still in search of its first super bowl win. joining us now is the seahawks president, peter mclaughlin. welcome. it's great to have you on the show today. >> thank you, scott. >> can't help but notice the sound of what's likely a helicopter above your head today. and there was a scare early on today which appears at this point to have at least be a hoax which we certainly hope is the case. what have you noticed about the increase in the security presence here? >> well the nfl always does a great job working with local law enforcement, and i think we're going to be in great shape for the game. i don't think we have any issues to be concerned about. >> you haven't noticed anything that has maybe tied up your time a little bit? do you notice the increased security presence in a city like new york? >> you know not so much. i think there's been a greater police presence on the streets. i have noticed that. but we've had the good fortune of having a lot of police escorts as we get around town with the team as we go to practice, and the state troopers in new jersey and the police forces in both new jersey and new york have done a fantastic job. >> peter, i imagine like a super bowl win -- it would be such a big deal for the franchise. what would it mean for you? what happens if you walk away on sunday with the trophy? >> well certainly winning a super bowl is the pinnacle for us, and something we really want to strive for on sunday and that's what we're here to do. it would mean a great deal for the city of seattle, for our players, our coaching staff. we have an amazing fan base in the 12th man, and it would be a dream come true for all of us. >> peter, we're sitting at the stock exchange. we talk about risk all day long. hiring pete carroll i think you could say as a head coach at the time he was hired could have been perceived as a risk. great college coach. mixed results in the pros. why has this worked so well? >> pete is a great coach. he's a great motivator. he's very positive. he deals very well with people and his players. he works extremely well with our general manager, john schneider. has a great talent for player acquisition and together they have built a fantastic football team. >> what do you think about the changing nature of televising some of these events. there's talk about going outside of the traditional carriers. you're involved with the seahawks and other major sports franchises in the area. as an owner, how are the economics changing here for you and what's it going to look like in a couple years? >> well, you know a great deal of our revenue comes from the national tv contracts, and we've got great partnerships with nbc and cbs and fox and espn and, you know it's a great sport to watch at home. that's why the networks do such a great job of broadcasting the game but it's also a great sport to watch in person. to have a live game in new york is fantastic. >> we follow paul allen and, you know, his time in microsoft obviously closely. what's he like to work for? >> he's just a great boss. he lets you do your job. he hires good people. like i said john schneider and pete carroll and i work extremely well together. paul gives us the resources and freedom to do our jobs. he's a great leader. he asks very good probing questions. he is engaged, but he lets us do our job. >> peter, just curious, do you think that there -- that athletes should be allowed with all the attention about peyton manning yelling omaha, should they be allowed to capitalize on those kinds of things those moments, those words that may come up in the game or should we try to make sure there's a wall and a thick wall between endorsement and sponsorship and what happens on the field? >> well i think when signals like omaha are being spoken it's to confuse the defense and it's all about focusing on the football game itself, and, you know, that's what we're really focused on now is what's going to happen on the field sunday. but, you know, certainly sponsorship is an important part of the game. you know you need revenue in order to pay our players, need revenue to build our stadiums and provide amenities for our fans. there's room for both in all of sports. >> we're going to let you run. we're in the midst of a pretty good market sell-off here down on the street today. we wish you all the success and best of luck on sunday. >> thanks. >> and we'll be watching. and we do have sell off as scott referenced. as we head with 40 minutes into the close, the dow is off 120 points. that's not quite as bad as the levels we saw this morning. we're certainly going to be watching as the s&p 500 heads back down towards 1785. >> here is a question for you, should investors be buying after this disappointing january? we'll hear exclusively from wisdomtree ceo jonathan steinberg about what exchange traded fund investors have been doing so far or how they've been doing so far this year. that's next. later, did walmart just give us a big reason to worry about the country's economy? what are they saying about consumer trends? some interesting nuggets. we'll be right back. in today's market, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. welcome back. with some breaking news on the keystone pipeline eamon javers joins us from washington. what can you tell us eamon? >> just within the past few minutes here the state department has released its final environmental impact statement. we got a copy here. looking through it we see no major impediments here to the keystone pipeline development. the report not really raising any red flags in terms of environmental damage to be done by the construction of the pipeline. let me read you one key sentence here on climate change. the report saying broad climate change effects will occur to varying levels. however, these changes will occur irrespective of the presence of the proposed project. analysis here is that this report now clears the way for secretary of state john kerry to make a decision on whether or not to go forward with the keystone pipeline. then, of course, that could be kicked up to president obama himself. no real time frame, however, for final approval at this point kelly. >> all right. >> eamon, thanks. i should also note as we're looking at trp, can we throw up cp real quick? canada pacific? that stock is down more than a buck now, nearly 1%. there are ramifications on both sides of the border based on what transportation mode you're talking about, but you can see a little bit of a turn lower on the release of this news earlier. just something to keep an eye on between now and then. >> absolutely. >> wisdomtree reporting better than expected fourth quarter earnings today. the publicly traded asset manager specializes in exchange traded funds and it's stock trading under the symbol wetf has seen gains of more than 62% in the past year. >> so where are etf investors putting their money? joining us now is jonathan steinberg, ceo of wisdomtree investments. welcome. >> thank you. >> so what can you tell us about the year so far? we saw some headlines about people leaving equity funds. what else is going on? >> you are definitely seeing equity outflows in the etf industry, both domestic and emerging markets, so i mean the industry has had outfloatws but with etfs you get to express sentiment in realtime. it doesn't feel like there's any panic, a little profit taking from a very strong year the year before. >> you have pretty good exposure to emerging markets. >> yeah. >> what are you feeling? what are you seeing? >> we probably have the most exposure of any publicly traded asset manager to emerging markets, about 25% of our assets, and we're seeing a little bit of profit taking or outflows in that sector and we're also very strong in emerging market currencies and there's been a lot of volatility on the currency side. >> i'll say. does it feel panicky? >> not at all. >> orderly? >> very orderly. just it is what it is. the structure is so fleck flexible, it turns very quickly. >> are fund flows generally contrarian? when you see big outflows of equity funds does that generally mean ths ait's a buying opportunity? >> i wouldn't say that for sure. emerging markets have been trading down for 13 months. you are getting to some sense of valuation potentially, but the recent volatility in currencies and some weakness or slowdown in china has panicked a little bit of em investors. >> japan. hottest trade of 2013. >> yeah. >> dxj product, i'd say it ripped -- that was an underestimate. money was flowing in there by the boat load. >> yes. >> it's a hedged product obviously on the nikkei and the jen. what are you seeing? >> last year we raised about $10 billion in our japan trade. that powered our company's earnings about -- up almost 400% our earnings last year. it's very -- holding strong. so investors are showing a lot of confidence in that trade whether it's hedge or unhedged. i think for everybody in etfs, japan is still positive in flows. >> are these buy and hold investors? are they generally getting into this product and holding it or do they get in and out? >> it's a great question because with the etf you can be buy and hole like the traditional van guard investor or be very active. you are attracting all types and the experience of one does not affect the other. we're taking money from institutions, retail through advisers, everybody. >> counterintuitive trade this year has been bonds up gold up. at the beginning of the year late last year no one expected that would be the case early in 2014. what does that tell you? what do you see in terms of flows in that area? >> well the bond flows have been sort of flat this year. we at the end of last year launched a twooetsuite of rising rate funds. since we launched it -- >> hopefully longer term. rates are certainly not cooperating. >> the jobs report scared people. even though unemployment went down so many people left the workforce. that's what affected the numbers. that really showed sort of some weakness and affected i think the bond markets to some degree snp. >> and those floating rate products are generally keyed off something like the overnight libor rates. not necessarily what we see on the u.s. ten-year treasury. >> right. but the government just launched its first floating rate treasury fund actually and on tuesday here on the new york we'll be launching the first floating rate etf usfr. that's exciting for us to have the first floating rate treasury etf coming out on tuesday. >> by and large, you're positive on where you think things are going to go this year just from the people you talk to the things you see, and the kind of business you're in? >> i think it from a different approach. so the etf where we sit, we're so fortunate to be etf focused, we are taking market share from other asset managers as an industry, and so it's very very exciting. >> look at the numbers. revenue is up almost 80%, earnings up 370% in the last fiscal year. >> we are by far the fastest growing publicly traded asset manager and the only one focused solely on etfs and it's because it's a better investing experience. we're collecting assets and people have to invest. i mean right, it's what we all do. >> but a lot of people are looking to your success and i-shares and others and saying we have to be in the space and it is compressing fees. how do you continue to make money in an increasingly competitive environment? >> we do it by innovating. we are always first or different. we never do a me too, product and that's how we have differentiated ourselves for the last 7 1/2 years. >> the future of active versus passive investing. genie is out of the bottle on this right? >> you are seeing active etfs, okay but really what -- don't -- >> are they taking in any money? >> we're the second largest in the space. pimco is the largest. we are taking in money. it's new though. only about five years old in that active etfs. what is the genie is out of the bottle is investors want transparent, low fee, liquid tax efficient structures, and that's the benefit of the etf. >> one question as we watch these indexes today. the dow is off 111. they're moving all the same way today, but that hasn't been the case for much of january, and there's some debate about whether it is a price weighted or market cap weighted index that better reflects the environment. what is your take on that? >> well we do mostly what's called fundamentally weighted or smart beta. we weight our funds usually by dividends or earnings to generalize and say it's always better, you can't. in a momentum market cap weighting sometimes does better. the only problem with cap weighting which is the foundation of a vanguard approach is cap waiting always runs into everybody bubble and it never rebalances and so -- >> has there been enough history with some of the smart beta products -- >> absolutely. there's records that go back to the '60s, so yeah there's definitely a history that they are at least a relevant and constructive alternative, but you don't need to have your one approach for your whole portfolio. you wouldn't use one manager and so having different index constructions is also very constructive. >> if you had to sort of give me the temperature of where you think the individual investor is right now coming off of the kind of year we had, 2013 doesn't get people off the mat, i don't know what's going to. now, that's maybe good or bad, right? you don't necessarily want people buying into what some people could say is the top. however, what's going to bring the individual investor back? >> flows in a macro sense are very muted. there's very little trust still. so money is not moving in big numbers. and it's a moment of crisis potentially because so much money has gone into fixed income. if that trade turns, that is a challenge because that's your meat and potato money. that's like your dotcom money. that's your real money. and so that's a very serious issue. that's why we launched the rising rate suite of products, but you're not seeing enthusiasm enthusiasm. there's a lot of money, record money is still sitting on the sidelines. >> few people know this space better. john, good to see you. >> thank you. i really appreciate it. thank you again. >> jonathan steinberg. dow right now is down 109 points. the s&p 500 is negative as well. thought for a moment there the nasdaq was going to hold onto positive territory. that lasted for all of 30 seconds. >> fleeting glory. chipotle is plugging the sell-off. investors eating up shares after the company reported strong quarterly sales. we'll talk to the company's co-ceo next. are individual investors heading to the hills right now or do they see opportunity in this january sell off? our retail investor panel is coming up. we want to know whether you are buying this dip. tweet us and we will reveal your best responses later on in "the bell." . why? because selling their funds makes them more money. which makes you wonder. isn't that flict? search "proprietary mutual funds". yikes!! then go to e*trade. we've got over 8,000 mutual funds and not one of them has our name on it. we're in the business of finding the right investments for you. e*trade. less for us, more for you. the fund's prospectus contains its investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and other important information and should be read and considered carefully before investing. for a current prospectus visit www.etrade.com/mutualfunds. 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(vo) so do we, business pro. so do we. go national. go like a pro. ♪♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] a car that is able to see to calculate, to think -- and can respond to what it encounters. ♪ ♪ even if that means completely stopping itself. it's the stuff of science fiction... minus the fiction. the 2014 e-class. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. wild market gyrations today and really for the entire month of january. >> bob pisani does anyone really know why we were down so much earlier? >> there's concerns about currencies, and that's why the stock market traders are so confused because they don't understand currencies very well and that causes a lot of consternation in the markets but things are a little calmer today. it's a mixed picture on the earnings front. the bottom line i hate to get technical, we didn't drop below the initial move we had around 9:45. everybody looked for that. we had a nice close in europe and, yes, we're coming down but we're in the middle of the range. everybody would be i think fine with where we are right now. the dow has been a mess this month. it's dramatically underperformed the rest of the market because certain companies are out with earnings that are disappointing. happened with chevron. exxon wasn't a lot of fun. walmart's commentary hurt earlier in the morning. walmart has now turned positive. mastercard is hurting visa and american express today. there's some problems with the fact you only got 30 stocks in the dow jones industrial average. let me show you the losers in january. retail stocks have been a mess. emerging markets have been a mess. steel that's tied to emerging markets have hurt. energy same situation. it is interesting consumer staples have had a tough time as well. normally considered a defensive group. the winners are a strange conglomeration of very defensive names like health care and utilities as well as some sensitive to interest rates like reits. next wikeek ism, good news there. >> we will get some ism readings out of china tonight. see what tone that sets for the weekend. >> chipotle immune from the selling today. look how the stock is popping today. >> about 12% chipotle shares double digit increases after reporting better than expected growth. joining us in a cnbc exclusive is co-ceo monty moran. there are so many people wondering how you do it? >> thank you. well, it's wonderful to see, but really it's just the result of us doing what we've done for quite some time with i ishich is trying to focus those on the best raw ingredients we can and cooking them in an open kitchen with classic cooking techniques. also, we've got a team of top performers. great people all of whom are basically incentivized to make the people around them better and the better they are at making those around them better the more they succeed at ship pot lay and deliver a great experience for our customers. >> you mention your sourcing. your food costs are going up. you guys are going to be dealing with that in the years ahead. are you going to raise prices? >> well you know we're waiting. taking a wait and sigh approach. our food costs are extensive. way pay more for our food than any other restaurant company and that's because we have high quality ingredients. you know naturally raised meats and organics and local ingredients and all of that stuff does cost more but it also tastes a lot better and our customers are really starting to notice that. we think that's a significant reason for why we're having this enjoyable comp number of 9.3%. >> are you afraid that if you raise prices now, that 9.3% number would not be as robust? >> no no. in fact, we believe we have a lot of pricing power. we have the ability to raise prices and our customers would understand that because they understand we've got very high quality ingredients. but one part of our mission which is to change the way people think about meat fast food and to make sure our food is accessible. when food costs go up for a period of time we don't immediately raise prices and we'd rather take a wait and see approach and see if we can continue to keep our prices as low as possible because a big part of our platform is to make this food accessible so everyone can eat better food. >> the one execution risk you could possibly see here for you guys and other chains to be fair comes from the experience of being in the lines which are famously long and trying to figure out how to move people through more quickly, maybe take advantage of mobile payments or more preorder options without alienating people from the experience. what can you tell us about the line backers that are involved in your ability to increase transactions last quarter and how much do you think you can do that in 2014? >> well we think there's a lot of room to inmprove more despite the fact we're the best in the business on this important metric. our through put comes from having terrific teams in the stront restaurant. they're empowered to deliver a high customer service standard and delicious food. we've got this thing called the four pillars of through put. we really focus on that. really the better our teams get in the restaurant the faster our through put goes and while there's a whole bunch of things you can look at to try to increase your speed of service, we really focus just on these four things and on having the very best teams we can because we find that that is what's more important than anything else in continuing to increase speed. as you heard during the earnings call, we did increase speed, five transactions at lunch, six at dinner this quarter over the previous quarter. yet i think we're still just getting started on what we're capable of with these terrific teams in our restaurants. >> you think this anti-gm o thing before we leave is winning you customers? >> you know i think that it's just one part of our ongoing food to integrity strategy which has us going out sourcing the best ingredients. i do think gmos is an important issue. we're very close to being gmo free already and i think it's going to be very difficult for competitors to copy that but i hope they try to because it's something that's very important for consumers over time and we are very pleased to be at the leading edge of that effort. >> imagine you're cheering on your team on sunday too. >> absolutely. go broncos. >> thank you so much for joining us monty. really appreciate it. >> thanks very much. >> have a great weekend. we have 15 minutes to go. dow is down 125 as we approach the end of this week and what's been a tumultuous month for the market. >> we started out the day with a pretty big sell-off. then a major comeback. up next dom chu will take a look at some of the wild moves. after the bell walmart warning earnings could be hurt. does walmart need government subsidies to make the numbers? and if so what does that say about the strength of our economy? ade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. welcome back. just minutes away from the close. the deep southow has cut its losses by half but it's heading lower. >> we started off with what looked like it could be a big sell-off at the open here. we've marvnaged to get back a huge part of the losses. the worst performing sector in the s&p 500 is energy. you got integrated oil giants like chevron and he cannon among those stocks taking the biggest hit. also consumer discretionary are neck and neck with energy as the worst performers. you have toymakers like mattel and hasbro both getting beat up. amazon among those disappointing with the results of their own as well as their forecast. if you're looking for bright spots in the market, take a look at certain parts of the stock market overall like internet software and services. you have google there, facebook all higher on the day as is paper related forestry company international paper. then the home builders all of them. lennar pulte, d.r. horton they're catching a bid today being helped along by a drop in interest rates. there are some bright spots. maybe some of the reason that we aren't at session lows but still a very interesting market for this last day of january overall, kelly. >> all right. we'll see if february changes the picture with the janet yellen sitting in at the fed. thank you, dom. we've got about 13 minutes to go before the close, and markets are heading a little lower again. the dow is off almost 150 points. down 147, in fact. the s&p 500 sitting at about 1782. how are you playing the market? 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[ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. how is this for a closing countdown countdown? i under armour ceo, kevin plank. lindsey vonn cam newton and deion sanders. a couple super bowl rings. let's talk about the big game first and then we'll move to other topics. who is going to win this game? >> kevin is picking this one. he said something in the room earlier i didn't agree with. he said he liked denver. i'm not there. >> you got to give them a chance. give the old guy a chance. peyton manning will be the last one to call himself the old guy but i'll give it to the cagey vets i think. i feel it a little bit. it might be his year. >> cam newton you had a tremendous year, as i said p.m.. how do you see this game unfolding on sunday? >> i think this year has been all peyton manning. you know i find myself rushing home trying to find out what would peyton do? and he was putting up unbelievable monstrous numbers and i don't think he's going to disappoint in the super bowl. >> somebody who is familiar with the cold weather that they're talking about here lindsey vonn. we wish you were going to sochi but i hear you're going to be working for the family for nbc. how are you doing? >> i'm all right, thanks. i had surgery 2 1/2 weeks ago. i'm hobbling around but keeping up with this guy. he's kind of old so that's good. >> who do you like on sunday? >> of course i'm from vail colorado, i love denver and pay peyton. >> we've had a great runs. the efforts our team put forth in 2013 was something that we're incredibly proud of. under armour is a great company. we're just getting started. >> best of luck. >> thanks. >> they're going to go up and ring the bell. we're going to get back to what we do best. we're going to talk stocks now. the market right now the dow jones industrial average is down 164 points. i've got rich peterson, i've got got -- we've got everybody down here! >> on prime time. >> the original prime time. let's talk about the market peter. it's been a rough week and a rough month. >> yes, it has. >> what now? >> you know? i think next week is going to be a continuation of what we saw this past week. the market is very -- it's very tenuous. it bounces off of different news events be it either earnings the emerging market situation. it's a very very volatile situation. i think we're going to see it for about another week week and a half and things will start calming down. >> do you believe that? >> well we wanted volatility and we got it. earnings have been very good. >> careful what you wish for. >> exactly. >> we were down 3% for the month. the fact is 17 times that the s&p has gained 20% or more only three times that year -- following year it was a losing year. it does happen but the fact is earnings are good the economy is growing. the question is the jobs numbers. >> jobs report let's not forget that. there are so many things that can happen between today and next week. there's some china numbers. who knows what's going to happen in the emerging markets with the currencies between now and then as well. >> you know one of the things about the jobs numbers is, you know, you look at it and you say, well we're not -- jobs are not increasing, but you know what? welfare rolls aren't going up food stamps aren't going up. where are all these people that are lurking paying for everything? people should start looking at why is the economy still growing at a rate when there's so many people out of work? you know what? there's an underground economy and i think that's something that people forget about. people are still making money. they're just maybe not paying taxes on it. >> for the first month of a 12-month gain. to be determined for a full year. >> you're looking at it on your screen. have a great weekend. enjoy the super bowl. the closing bell is going to ring in 20 seconds. final trading day of january. look who's up on the podium. kelly evans picks up the ball and runs with it in five seconds. what an afternoon. welcome to the closing bell. i'm kelly evans down here in a rowdy new york stock exchange. lots of action on the floor and lots of action in these markets today. here is a look at how we're finishing the last trading session of january. in many ways a remarkable finish to what was a remarkable month. a look at the dow down 150 points at the close, almost 1%. the nasdaq shedding 19 points despite being briefly positive in the final hour. the s&p 500 off 11 points 1782. let's get straight to it with today's panel. my very own -- i was going to say -- you're not my very own, our cnbc's very own robert frank. >> i can dream. >> and michael crawford from philadelphia trust company. joining us is "fast money" contributor brian kelly. but i want to go to you first. sara eisen are making this point, you're grinning because this is all about currencies. what is going on? >> if you think the action in stocks in january was exciting or had some sharp moves you haven't seen anything. look at the currency moves. i looked at the biggest losers because we talk about carnage in emerging markets. if you look at the biggest losers argentine peso since the beginning of the year lost 18.5% of its value against the u.s. dollar. other currencies like the south african rand all of these currencies, they lost more than 5% of share value against the dollar. you saw funds coming out of emerging market stocks out of bonds. last week investors yanked $6 billion out of emerging market stocks. whether that helps the u.s. in the long run? that's the question for february. >> i wonder if you could put it in perspective. you have had 19 times when it's gone down at least 5%. i spent a lot of time covering emerging markets at the "wall street journal." by nature this is very volatile. and people have been on air saying this isn't so bad. this isn't 1994. it's not 2004. how bad is this from a dollar outflow perspective? >> the money is flowing into the dollar. the question is how bad is this going to be? is this going to be a crisis or is it going to just be a bumpy ride? so far the jury is out, and it looks like it's just going to be a bumpy ride because the u.s. economy, the biggest economy, is still growing, and it's doing well. and money could be coming into the u.s. as a result. >> this is what makes today's action very interesting. mr. michael krofton, as the lights go down around us we'll work on getting that back you guys can still hear us and the lights are coming back on now. we'll try not to take that as a metaphor michael, after earnings, after walmart comes out with warning about guidance after some big high profile misses and a report on consumer spending that showed no growth in personal incomes. in fact, a decrease in real terms year on year are we being too sanguine after that strong gdp report about the health of the u.s. economy? >> i don't think so. i think we had a huge year last year, up 32%. it's bound to come back a little bit which is what we've seen. walmart is a little bit of a different story. walmart is really an employment story and an income story and employment is still weak. income is flat as you mentioned. >> you mean for that demographic. >> because employment and income is pretty important -- >> but for the walmart demographic, it's extremely important because the average customer spends all of their disposable income. if there's even a small, you know, difference in -- >> and that happened in the form of food stamps snp. >> that's absolutely right. >> they have stores in the emerging markets. they have exposure to brazil and china. they did say food stamps and they did say there was going to be some weakness at sam's club as well the bad weather also hurt, but this is also part of the emerging market contagion. i talked to a well-known emerging markets investor today who said i actually am buying the dips. i think it's cheap and maybe i have a stronger stomach than most people but i think this will turn around whether it's a week a month, six months. >> the question is are they going to decouple? are you going to be able to buy on the dip especially in the stronger emerging markets countries because they all have their own set of problems they all have political uncertainty, and they're all having individual -- >> to me it remains to be seen whether all that money is going to come back from overseas to the u.s. market. the question today everyone is asking is where are the buyers of stocks? even if you expect it to go down a little bit more you'd expect some more people jumping into this market. i was talking to somebody at citi private bank who says their clients still don't trust this market. that's cash that's left the stadium and doesn't plan to come back. >> very similar to what jonathan steinberg just told us last hour as well talking about what he's seeing there. i want to get brian kelly here in the mix. brian, what do you make of this january? >> it's a terrible january unless you're short. the shorts are pretty happy here. i don't think this emerging markets problem is over. there are multiple disparate imbalances that need to be corrected. now, these imbalances have been around for a while, but now that the market is focused on it i think it's going to be very hard to have any type of sustainable rally until the imbalances, each individual one are corrected. >> michael, what were you going to say? >> i was going to say that, you know, i think today's market was actually a pretty good market. we could have gone down a lot more. we saw some flows come in towards the end of the day. the market almost got positive at one point. so i don't think it was such a bad deal and i think a lot of that is money coming out of the emerging markets and coming back. it's not going to come back wholesale but it's coming back a little bit. >> as we flip the calendar to february are you being opportunistic? >> absolutely. we took a little off the table early in the month but now we're starting to put that money back in as some of the stocks begin to hemorrhage. >> i just wonder how much of a correction is healthy for a market? remember, we're coming off a year where the dow closed up 26.5%, s&p almost 30%. it's been a one-way bet. we haven't had a correction of 10% since back in 2011. so is this healthy or is it a sign of more trouble? i think that's -- >> i think it's a show me market. the market really wants earnings. the market really wants gdp growth and without those two things the market will give back some more. if it gives back 10% and still up 22% -- >> to me this felt a little wile e. coyote like where he went off the cliff. you don't have emerging markets powering the overseas growth and you have a weak american consumer. when you look at what's under your feet right now, you're going off the cliff, you're still running but there's nothing there. >> it's not that weak. the consumption numbers have been pretty strong. we saw that in today's personal consumption and gdp report. >> you look at sears, best buy, walmart, you look at family dollar -- >> brick and mortar. >> all these things are getting crushed. >> jor nightovernight there was a survey saying banks are beginning to relax terms of loans. consumers are saying they want to invest. they're just being picky about where they're spending it and how they're beginning to leverage. >> and the fed is still there. the market is still contrived to some extent. >> brian, go ahead. >> we don't have earnings growth nor do we have a good gdp number. the gdp number was mostly made up of an inventory bill which is perfectly fine if people come in and buy that inventory. when off weak consumer with weak emerging markets, higher heating bills, that inventory is going to sit there and you'll start to see write downs over the next couple months. that's going to continue to hurt ascertainings earnings. we have seen across the board the estimates and the guidance for the next quarter have just been atrocious. i don't think this is -- >> earnings so far, actually the earnings growth has been good. it's actually the strongest since 2012. we're talking in the range -- >> the guidance is all the market -- >> not the top line. >> revenues are troublesome. the back half of this earnings season, that could change. this is the area that's going to come under some pressure. i want to brings in floor trader warren myers in the conversation just off the session. warren, what can you tell us about the flows today? >> i'll tell you, come in this morning it looked like, you know, pretty much the end of the world. futures were getting hit based off the overnight news of the emerging markets, china, walmart, and a few other things. but i'll tell you, the overall market throughout most of the day acted fairly well. we sold off initially but had a gradual strong little rally throughout most of the afternoon. it was only going into the very close that we sold off again. and, you know, i attribute that sell-off to the fact that it's been a rough week. we're going into -- it's a friday. we have a weekend ahead. i think people were taking extra money of a the table. all in all, i would say it was a relatively positive day given the information we were looking at. >> the same warren two things that will raise eyebrows here. one is we didn't get more buying into the close just from people who might have thought, well maybe rebalancing into february that didn't really show up. it might be at art cashin points out, when you're worried about currencies you don't want to be long into a weekend. what about the issue of if people look at this january and decide you know what in past down januarys we've had kind of wonky markets for the rest of the year. maybe there's not a consistent bear market story but there's a reason to be cautious. >> no you can't argue that point, but i think it's still a little too early to say that as january goes so goes the year this year given all of the different things that have happened over the last few years in the market that we haven't really seen before. so i think it's hard to take one month and take an old adage and say that's going to continue this year. as far as the end of the day activity today, i was a little disappointed that it didn't rally into the end of the day. i think monday is going to be a very interesting day. it will be the first day of the new month. if we get a strong end of the day rally, that would be a positive sign. since thanksgiving the end of the day activity went from being pretty strong prior to that date to more of a weak sell side for most of the -- >> great point. >> we're waiting to see if that changes or not. if that holds, it could be a rough february as well. >> next thursday could be important. we saw the first week of net equity outflows all year and the most in several months. so i think people are watching to see, okay how deep seated is this sentiment in the market that people want to be taking money out of equities. if you have two weeks in a row of net outflows heavy outflows from equity etfs in the u.s. that would be -- >> we have the jobs report to watch out for. twitter reporting earnings. >> central bank -- >> you're right about earnings, but you have to remember they bought back a lot of stock last year. corporation bought back a tremendous amount of stock. you have to pay a little more close attention revenues. revenues have been weak but there is somebody buying this market and corporate managements are very smart. >> be sure to stick around and catch brian kelly coming up on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. our thanks to warren for hopping off the floor as well. breaking news on new jersey governor chris christie. john harwood joining us from washington with some details. john? >> kelly, this is news that is potentially very damaging to chris christie but we don't know enough about the details yet. it is the release of a letter that was broken by "the new york times" from a lawyer for david wildstein who is the former high school classmate of chris christie who is the port authority official who oversaw the lane closures. he says that governor christie did not tell the truth at his press conference that he could prove it about not knowing about those lane closures. now, i do think we've got to see what the proof is because while he said that governor christie knew of the lane closures he did not say that governor christie knew of why the lane closures had taken place. that's the key fact because it goes to the motivation and to whether or not the governor actually consciously was aware that his administration was trying to create a traffic problem to punish a political opponent. we're going to have to wait and see what the proof is, but this story is moving. >> it certainly is. john harwood, as i should mention, mitt romney's name is getting more play with regard to 2016 than i thought anyone would have thought in these early days. >> i think nobody should pay attention to that talk. mitt romney of course is very well-known around the country. some polls have shown him leading because he's so well-known. but he's moving on. the party is moving on. i think the odds against mitt romney getting back into presidential politics are extremely high. >> john harwood, thank you so much for the detail on that this afternoon. much more ahead on this month's emerging market fueled turmoil. do the central banks have any bullets left? plus how worried should we be about the economy when the world's biggest retailer warns of slowing earnings because of a cut in the government's food stamp program. keep it right here you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. 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(announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. ♪♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] what kind of energy is so abundant it can help provide the power for all this? natural gas. ♪ ♪ more than ever before america's electricity is generated by it. exxonmobil uses advanced visualization and drilling technologies to produce natural gas... powering our lives... while reducing emissions by up to 60%. energy lives here. ♪ ♪ welcome back. it was a pretty wild ride for markets today with the dow closing well off its lows but does that mean the mess in emerging markets is behind us? joining me now with their takes are brian reynolds chief market strategist and larry mcdonald. are we closer to the beginning or end of this correction? >> well the key, kelly, for equity investors right now watching us is the same thing in 2011 is working today. it comes down to this. watch the credit indices in asia, watch emerging market spreads on those bonds, watch shibor, watch seven-day repo rates. if those indicators stay elevated, u.s. equities will run into a wall. if those indicators come back in u.s. equities will rip higher. >> okay. i shouldn't even use the word correction because we're not in one yet. we're off about 4% from the highs. brian, how much worse does it get? >> well i believe we did start a correction last week and i do think we have another leg down. the last two days we've seen some attempts by the stock market to try to climb back to come off the lows but the credit market the u.s. credit market, has worsened and it's not just the credit market but it's also the credit derivatives. things like financial, financial credit derivatives which are so key to our financial system. when we go into a correction like we did when the u.s. got downgraded or when greece got into trouble or as we're approaching the fiscal cliff, we created a lot of turbulence in both the credit and credit derivative markets and i'm seeing the same type of action as i saw then. in fact it looks very similar to the two-month correction we had last may and june. so i think there's another leg down. >> and, brian, even if there is another leg down is that as it sounds perhaps from that experience at least something that people should be opportunistic about and, frankly, say you know what? i can't afford to be sitting out of this market for another big move higher. this is my chance to buy. >> exactly. these things last about two months, and then we go ripping higher because the pensions that have been driving our financial system for the last 25 years, they have to earn 7.5% in a sub 1% world. they have tons of money just pouring in every two weeks. they put that into the credit market. the credit funds made higher by tons of corporate bonds and companies buy back the shares. the buybacks and corporate bond buying that take a break during the panics during the corrections, but they make up for lost time after the selling runs its course. there may be another leg down but the important thing to know is it's likely going to come back and stocks will in the next couple months take out the highs and go on to new highs. >> larry, it makes me wonder if the u.s. markets have that kind of profile, that kind of support below them perhaps, what about some of these other countries? where is the real risk that, you know, in the next couple months that that buyer, that marginal demand that was going to some of the middle eastern, eastern europe asian economies, it's just not going to be there. >> well we're getting close to a buying opportunity in emerging market equities only because when i see the outflows kelly, you know we had a record -- not a record but the largest outflows last week since 2011 and when you see that it may be early, but it's a sign you're getting closer to the bottom and i would agree with brian, credit -- all the indicators -- we created an index of the 21 lehman risk indicators in asia, they're all elevated which tells me equities will have a tough time in the short run. >> and, larry, if that's true is it china that's really going to be ground zero here for whatever happens next? in other words, is it going to matter regardless or does it only matter if that country, for example, begins to enter something that's more -- that's truly more of a credit crisis? >> think about it like this. global gdp in terms of the imf in 2004 is only 3.8% growth. china is supposed to be 7.5%. i believe that the chinese government behind the scenes is trying to do something we should have done in 2007 in the united states. they're trying to pop asset bubbles. they're trying to hurt the speck slaters and they're going to come in with regulatory action that will suppress credit that will hurt chinese growth. i see china growing this year from 0% to 3% and the street is looking for 7.5%. i don't agree with that. >> it makes me wonder where we are in the cycle in the u.s. halfway halfway, more than halfway? >> we're about halfway through. i think we just finished the second year of a six-year wave of money coming into pensions. they still need to make 7.5% which is too high but they have gradually been bringing that down. they raise the assessments on the cities and towns that contribute to them. as those cities and towns pour more money into the pensions that keeps the credit market going, so we've been able to survive all the worries like the greek default, like the fiscal cliff, like the end of qe 1 andq qe 2. all those things might have stopped the credit boom from going on but because there's a wave of money coming into the pensions, we've been able to overcome all the worries and that's why we're going to overcome the worries about emerging markets that we have right now. >> it's so fascinating to think about the way we've structured this system to work or perhaps not work depending how it all ends this time around. brian and larry, thank you for your thoughts on this friday afternoon. really appreciate it. >> thanks, kelly. when walmart worries about its bottom line perhaps the rest of us should be worried, too. when the concern is because of a cut in the food stamps program, what does that indicate about how strong this economy really is? we'll have that discussion next. and after stocks down again today, it was a pretty bad january overall, and we want to know are you ready to buy these market dips? what are you doing with your money here? tweet us @cnbcclosingbell. we've had some fascinating responses. welcome back. yes, it was kind of a roller coaster ride in markets today. >> netflix was one of the bright spots. morgan stanley upgraded netflix to equal weight from underweight saying its prior conclusion that u.s. subscriber growth would slow down was incorrect. abbvie gained ground and potentially moved up the launch date to later this year. buffalo wild wings climbed and we can only speculate it's because of the super bowl. the in accordance chicken council said an estimated 1.25 billion wings will be eaten during the big game up 20 million from last year. and we end with walmart which cut its quarterly and full-year outlook due in part to reduced foot stamp benefits. about 20% of the company's shoppers use food stamps according to analysts. kelly? >> all right. thanks very much. we want to pick up on that note. what does walmart's warning mean for the broader economy? what does it tell us? lindsey from stern ag joins us. it's great to have you, and just to quote from walmart, they said the sales impact from the reduction and the supplemental nutrition assistance program that went into effect in november was greater than expected. this can't just be a walmart story. >> no it certainly isn't. and i think this speaks to the fact we've seen minimal income growth in this recovery. as we saw in this morning's report consumers are still out there spending and they're spending beyond their means. what this means is we're seeing a drawdown in savings, an increase in credit and an increased reliance on government assistance program. now, going forward unless we see sustainable job and income growth, this is going to mean a much broader, much larger impact than just wallmart downgrading their sales commitments. >> lindsey, here is the question, does this speak to the split nature of the recovery here because we are several years in. is this unusual by historical standards? >> it really is. this is not the type of job recovery we'd like to see. sure, we are seeing positive job creation in terms of quantity but the quality remains lackluster. in fact, what we're see something that nearly 60% of the jobs created since the end of the recovery -- excuse me since the end of the recession have been in part-time or low wage sectors. it's not just a quantity but a quality game as well leaving minimal wage increase. >> yeah. you guys, what do you think about -- certainly it surprised me. you could expect some impact but for it to be this material for the country's biggest retailer? >> the amazing thing is if you look at walmart, they apparently get 18% of all food stamp outlays. that was $14 billion in sales in 2012. so i don't think realized how dependent they were. the other thing to point to this two-speed recovery from 2009 to 2012 the top 1% had a 30% income gain. the rest had about a 0.5 income gain. i don't want to get political here and i'm not taking political sides, but this really has been sort of a tale of two recoveries. you're really seeing it now on the bottom end with sears, best buy, family dollar walmart. >> they may get 18% of foot stamp outlays but 20% of their customer base uses foot stamps. i wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the companies that would have more of an adverse affect versus other companies. we asked the cfo of target the same question earlier last year. he said actually no because our customer makeup is a little different. it seems they have a little bit more exposure. >> you have outside factors clearly impacting the retailers like walmart especially at the low end. even amazon forecasts didn't satisfy wall street. walmart itself has faced some of its own problems. you have to wonder how much of it is self inflicted. we know they're dealing with bribery scandals overseas, a competitive threat from dollar stores inventory issues and keeping shelves stocked. the one to watch will be when the other retailers, especially at the low end who rely on these consumers, start to recover, does walmart recover with it or does it face some of its own problems. >> michael what is your take on the conconsumer? >> i think the consumer is stressed and strained. walmart has always been an employment story and income story. >> does that mean we keep staying away from walmart? >> i don't have walmart at all. there are a couple positives in walmart. at this price they're trading at 50% of annual revenues. it pays a 2.4% dividend yield and it's -- i don't know what thep e is today. it was probably around 12. walmart is a call on economic recovery. if you believe we're going to have economic recovery you can buy walmart at a fairly good level. >> is that the case because we have economic recovery. we had the two strongest quarters back to back ofg gdp growth in a couple years and it's leaving this group behind. >> a lot of that was inventory building as we heard earlier in the show and also this group is being left behind because so many people have left the workforce. so the numbers just aren't adding up. look, we're going to have a very high unemployment rate for a long period of time and i believe that that's a fundamental change in the nature of our economy. technology has taken over. and technology even at the lowest levels of employment there has been to be some familiarity with technology and there is a certain portion of the employable population that can't adapt to technology. >> go ahead. >> rather than a call on the economic recovery which i like that idea i mean that assumes that this is not something structural, right? this assumes that we now don't have a permanent group of people who don't have the skills to get the right jobs and that, you know, wouldn't you rather as a call on an economic recovery buy higher income, hie higher demographic retail stocks? >> absolutely. that's why i don't buy walmart. employment is certainly a structural problem. >> shouldn't this benefit walmart? they weathered the recession well because everybody paid attention to price and it's supposed to offer the low prices guaranteed. if incomes aren't growing and the consumers are feeling sluggish headwinds walmart theoretically should benefit. >> but their margins are so slow that any decline in sales will pummel them. >> what about this point about technology, whether it's structural versus cyclical and the potential for much higher groups of unemployed even if they're not officially counted as unemployed going forward ? >> there's a strong disconnect between the americans looking for work and the vacancies available right now. a lot of small businesses say we have positions available, i.t. accountants, but the individuals looking for jobs don't necessarily have the skills to fill these vacancies. we are seeing a skills mismatch that's prolonging the labor market recovery. >> and could prolong some trouble here for walmart. we'll watch it closely especially as we move more into the retail and food part of the earnings season. thanks, lindsey, very much. an important issue. it's a tale of two januarys as well. check it out. last year's 6% jump in the dow. that's on the left-hand side. that was in january. 6% move and then we had a 26% year. flash forward to this year and it's the polar opposite. and that's on the right side of the screen. what does this month's decline mean for the rest of the year if anything? that's next. [ bagpipes play ] make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. huh, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. yeah. everybody knows that. did you know there is an oldest trick in the book? what? trick number one. look-est over there. ha ha. made-est thou look. so end-eth the trick. hey.... yes.... geico. fifteen minutes could save you... well, you know. welcome bangck. it's on the records, we've had a weak january. is this necessarily a bad omen for stocks? dominick chu has been poring over history. >> if you're a market watcher, you have been hearing all the stories about that january barometer. those who believe that so goes january, so goes the rest of the year. now the ones who think january is like a market pace car, if you will i guess, the nascar fans out there can relate to that bit of the story. so here is how the numbers shake out. it's the worst losing january in the s&p 500 since 2010. now, over the last 85 years, the january barometer has been correct 62 times meaning it has a 73% success rate. although it is more accurate here we will say this in predicting positive years for stocks when there's a positive january as opposed to a negative year nor stock when there is a negative month of january. but there's one other market stat you want to keep an eye on, that's market volatility as measured by the vix. so-called fear index. it uses options prices to gauge anticipated market swings or volatility. now, that gauge is up 36% for january for what has historically been a relatively calm month for stocks. that's a big move. since the index started in 1986 a 15-plus percent gain in that volatility index in january has only happened three times. in two of those times, the s&p closed down more than 5% for the year. the other time was the crash year of 1987 where stocks did manage to recover and finish up on the year. still, that january barometer has some traders worried about the rest of 2014. now, we have all the numbers. go to that story to buy the numbers.cnbc.com. make up your observe mind and see if you think that's stats are worth poring more into. >> we're giving the st. louis fed a run for its money. thanks, dom. more on that old adage and if it will hold up. with us now, jeff hirsch and our own ron insana. it is great to see you both. jeff i liked dom's point about maybe it's the vix that's more important here. can you tell us anything about volatility as a january gauge? >> yeah. it's usually a good up month and volatility has increased, it adds to the sort of negative implications of it but, you know, what we're looking at here is other indicators. the december low of the dow was crossed, 21 times. that's happened with january. the market has gone down 14% on average all 21 times. so there's a lot of other things going here but there is a silver lining at the end of the midterm year. there's a big move in the fourth quarter. >> hang on. let's get to that in one second. before we get to the back half of the year do you think investors should be worried now? i mean there is something to this. >> yeah. you know kelly, i don't always look at it necessarily from a point of worry. i think since december we've been talking about doing a prudent thing and paring back one's portfolios maybe getting out of the way for what could be 10% to 20% correction sometime this year. i think 2014 is a transitional year. you have got devaluation and deflation worries both in emerging markets and in europe. so i happen to be somewhat bearish on the market short run, bullish long term but i own some puts on the s&p thinking this maybe gets worse before it gets better. >> i can understand from the guys who are doing this for a living, they got to be smart about it but for the retail investor, 10% to 20% is nothing as long as you're not -- as long as that's not it. you can weather that kind of thing if you're not super leveraged for example. >> correct. >> is this something if we're not talking about panic, then people shouldn't panic. i know that's a bit of a -- >> you don't want to be jumping in here necessarily without watching some further continuation of the uptrend. it's not necessarily weathering the 10% or 20% down. it's not jumping in here and getting hammered and being prepared to jump back in after the 10% or 20% down. so it's a situation that our concerns have been increased. we've been increased about the 2014 midterm year and the election going into this year and here we have the down january sort of confirming some of those fears. >> ron, what were you going to say? >> this is where individuals -- and as jeff just said it's a little early to be scaring in but if you're a professional trader that's what you're doing. you're looking at companies you like. we bought a little disney a little starbucks and may continue to do this for several months. still necessarily being short the indexes as opposed necessarily to being, you know, long individual stocks. there are a lot of different ways to play this. for somebody who has a 401(k) and their dollar cost averaging every month, you know maybe hold a little more cash in the portfolio for a couple months than you would otherwise and start picking up the stocks that you like later, but i do think there is the rick of this getting a little messy and scary if something happens in europe if one of these countries that has a weak currency should face a bit of a pan irkic on its own. that stuff spreads quickly as we know from '97 and '98. >> back to your point about poll picks. we shouldn't overlook this is a midterm cycle. >> 9 of the last 14 bear markets have bottomed in the midterm year. so we're looking at that sort of october bottom period. we've also seen lows in january. so let's not throw in the towel here yet. caution is in order, but as you said earlier, kelly, it's not a down year per se but it's a wonky year. every single down january since 1950 has been followed by a 10% correction, a new or continuing bear market or a flat year only plus or minus 5%. it's a potential for a wonky year is definitely true. >> last question jeff this cycle, i was asking brian ren nolgds about this. he says we're roughly halfway through. we have a cupping more years for this to play out from the way he looks on the credit side of things. where would you say we are in terption of expansion on the markets? >> i think the five-year bull is getting tired. i think we're still in the secular bear market for equities even though we've popped up above that. i have a long-term forecast that i think ron is familiar with for the dow to go to 38,820 which everyone sort of had some issues with back in 2010 when i came out with it but here we are only 134% from the recent highs from there. i think we have some trouble over the next three to five years and then we take off on some new paradigm shifting enabling technology and political -- >> i just like the precision. why 820 -- >> i'm at 21. >> it's a 500% move from the intraday move of march 6th of '09. >> i think we're in a secular bear market. i'm still in the fortress america world, that the u.s. is the best place. one thing we haven't talked about is the super bowl indicator. the super bowl indicator sats if an original nfl team wins the super bowl it's an up year for the market. there are no original nfl teams because seattle started in the afc as an expansion franchise denver is an original afl team. you need a minnesota, a green bay, a chicago, a new york giants, nobody is there. >> well played. >> i heard that on the twitters last hour. jeff, you can come back and have the last laugh when we hit them. >> i'm with him, just different timing. >> just be careful if you're for this year. enjoy the game. what does main street make of wall street's mess this month? two average joe investors weighing in next and are you ready to buy these dips? tweet us @cnbcclosingbell. afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. 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search "cost of financial advisors" ouch! over time it really adds up. then go to e*trade and find out how much our advice costs. spoiler alert. it's low. really? yes, really. e*trade offers investment advice and guidance from dedicated professional financial consultants. it's guidance on your terms not ours that's how our system works. e*trade. less for us, more for you. welcome back. it certainly has been a rough month for markets. the dow losing almost 5%. back in december right here on "the closing bell" we asked charles schwab if the retail investor had come back to the market. >> the evidence would say that the retail investor has seen this market has seen a great year, and has started to put money back into stocks. is that what you see? >> they actually haven't left. they were just inactive. >> so will performance this month send retail investors back to the sidelines? let's ask two of them. wayne smalls is an engineer at the health and human services department and thomas vitkowski, director of finance at cambridge university press. wayne, first to you. you see the market selling off this month. what are you doing? >> i'm remaining patient, calm. this isn't unexpected considering the amazing performance of 2013 and the market essentially going parabola in december. this suntisn't unexpected. nice to see. >> are you suffering losses and at what point do you get worried? >> i have -- i have got some losses but it's nowhere close to the price that i came in the buy the at. it's going to be a while. >> what about you thomas? >> january was a little tough, but i haven't done that much. i have bought a little bit. i still have about 15%, 20% cash i think. if it drops a little bit more i might be selective and pick up, you know -- ifg ge hits in the 23s or apple drops a little more, pick up some more stock. >> i want to bring the panel in as we kind of kick this around. so, thomas what's interesting is you have kind of got a shopping list, right? there are a couple names you're waiting for that these levels to hit. in fact, the sell-off here isn't the worst thing in the world because it means you could actually add to those positions correct? >> exactly. if you look at the s&p a year ago today was at 1500. we're still up almost 20% from that point. i want to be patient. you know i have been picking at certain stocks at the start of the year but i'm going to be patient and wait. >> michael, yeswhen you hear him say 15% to 20% in cash does this sound reasonable? >> no i think that's very reasonable. i look at his list, i think it's a fantastic list. pick your spots. you will be right in the sweet spot of any recovery and you're not speculating too much. those stocks are tried and true. they have great balance sheets, good earnings potential, probably good earnings growth. and i think most of them pay dividends. it's a well-balanced, well diversifyied portfolio. if you pick your spots, you will be well rewarded. >> wayne, when you look back to 2009 and what we went through there, a lot of investors tell me those tracer memories are still sort of guiding their behavior right now and i wonder how different today would be if we hadn't been through that. do the memories of 2009 shape the way you're seeing this fall in january or how you will go into this year? >> not at all. we have recovered remarkably and i don't have any reason to feel any fear going forward this year of anything close to 2009. >> wayne you're a lot better than me because i still have memories of 2009 and they haunt me. >> i still have nightmares. >> if it happens again i'm hoping i'll be smart enough to get in. because that's an opportunity. >> i'm curious if either of you own bonds or if it's just equities. >> actually it's funny you say that. in july i actually pretty much sold out of all of my bonds in my 403b. that ended up being a great call. to make 2.65% on a ten-year it's just not worth it to me. so i used some high yields etfs -- >> and those have performed relatively well this month. >> right. and those yield closer to 6% or 7%. pff is one, spf is another one. if i see weakness there, i'll pick up some of those but individual bonds i pretty much stay away from. >> a lot of people on wall street didn't even make a call as good as that one. wayne, it says you have been a shareholder in sirius xm for the last few years which is a very fortuitous trade and that has seen an unimaginable rise. do you participate in those phone calls? do you vote your shares or are you in touch with the company? how active a shareholder are you in a situation that's live like that? >> well, i do my research every night on various websites just to see exactly what's on the mind of hedge fund traders and hedge fund managers so that i can just be aware of what could possibly happen. i'm comfortable with it right now and it will be interesting to see what happens with liberty media. >> wayne if you figure out what's in their minds, would you mind giving me a call. i'd like to know as well. >> i see some synergies. wayne, last question, i suggested in the last segment if 10% to 20% downside move20% downside move wouldn't be a disaster doing want to be glib. to you, what is a pain threshold for declines in equities broadly here? >> the pain threshold would be decline say roughly 30%. really, i've took a lot of -- i've dub a lot of margin trading over the last couple of years so i have a dishlgts type of pain threshold, and some of my friends do. i'm crazy for that. i can take a lot of pain. >> thomas real quick. you? >> i'm sorry. what was the question again? >> how much of a decline is the pain trade for you here? is 10% to 20% manageable? >> yeah. i'm not using margin anymore. i got caught in that grab a few years ago. i do not touch margin anymore. to me if things drop i'll pick up the banks because eventually if the economy gets better the banks are going to be higher. thank you so much for joining us vanld a great weekend. >> thank you. you too. >> it's a tough day, tough week tough month on wall street. wait till you hear what stories are at the top of our hot list yet and we want to know if you're ready to buy. your thoughts on air shortly. se ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. welcome back is january's start of the lodge-term correction. let's check in with alan wastler to see what's clicking. >> there's the story with chris christie. this is coming for the guy who was thrown under the bus. he's coming out with a letter saying the governor did know about the lane crossings. i don't know. we've got a partnership with "the new york times." we had the story up. that took everybody's attention. we've got to another story. president obama was meeting earlier today with the ceos talking about long-term unemployed. here's a fun fact for you. if you're in your 50s it takes 26 weeks. in your -- >> i don't know if it's a fun fact. better for the old people. >> finally our third big hit with the super bowl. adam malone decided to take a deep dive into why nfl players end up broke. average career three years, $4 million on average, but nevertheless a lot of them end up in the poorhouse. we look at the lifestyle factors and decision-making. those are our hot ones. >> thanks very much. the big game this weekend. people should keep that in mind. it looks like they're playing but it's a hard one to bounce back from if you're not smart about it. get those tweets in. tweet us @cnbcclosingbell. your thoughts next. make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. with the dow finishing the day off 150 points on bad month pretty much for january, we want to know if you want to buy this dip. mark tweets added funds to my portfolio for the first time. david tweets buying with both hands. leveraged. love that. davieed tweets watching the chips with my chips. clever. adding a little rhyme in there as well. were you guys surprised by the response? >> i wouldn't be leveraged. i'd give the market a little bit of room. we're using -- we're using selloffs to position stocks we think have long-term prospects. >> the good news is they're less margin, a lot of cash. i think if we do have it it's better this time around. >> or maybe it's a little healthier market. >> yeah. >> they have to get over their fear. >> i think you have to see what happens in the emerging markets. that seems to be the lead trade. it's spilling over into the u.s. next week we get a bunch of central bank leads. a lot of people say it will be bumpy. >> i'm fascinated by the bank of america renaissance. jim cramer says that's the single stock he hears the most about. people are finally getting behind it again. >> good to see you all. thanks so much for joining me. enjoy the super bowl however you're watching it if you are. "fast money" is coming up right now. melissa lee, what's cooking? >> we're going to talk about the january -- >> is that a puppy? >> oh my gosh. you're right. it is a puppy. we've got special guests in here to celebrate. but the puppy bowl is also going on and we've got a couple of team mascots on on top of talking about the barometer and all that. >> i'm coming over. watch out. i want to hang out with the puppies. over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market no, sometimes square i'm melissa lee. let's get straight to our top story. volatility in full f

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