Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20160108 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG The Pulse January 8, 2016

Brutal week. Mark calm has been restored and markets after what you say has been distribute a turbulent week. Reference rate barely changed today. Statecontrolled funds have been propping up the stock market which did rise today. The shanghai composite this week biggestnking 10 , its drop since august. The world worstperforming Global Benchmark this week. Down by 5 ,ex is its worst performance in four months. Has been wiped off global stocks. I want to show you what is happening to emergingmarket stocks because yesterday the msci fell to the lowest level since 2009. But after china stepped up efforts to stabilize Financial Markets, it rebounded from that sixyear low. Still this week, it is down by 6. 5 . It matches what happens to the yuan. Swings tend to impact currencies. Those countries are chinas biggest trading partner south korea and taiwan. Index tracking currencies across the region has fallen to its lowest level in six years. The bloomberg dollar spot index is gaining for the ninth day in 10. A couple of points shy of the alltime high on wednesday. We are gearing up for the u. S. Jobs report which takes on ideal importance amidst this turbulence we have seen across Financial Markets. Economists expect 200,000 increase in nonfarm payroll. The fed indicating rates will rise four times this year. A weekend jobs report could widen expectations between the fed and markets, derivatives pricing two rate hikes this year. Gold losing its luster. It has risen for four days. Its falling today because of those measures taken by china. But still on track for its best week since august. Francine now, it was indeed a volatile trading session in china. It was volatile today. Endedwas volatile but it with gains. This is after the government scrapped Circuit Breakers. Enda curran joins us from hong kong. Always a pleasure. What exactly has china achieved . We saw a lot of turmoil. Does it mean they got cough guard . Caught off guard . Rid it looks like getting of the Circuit Breaker turned out to be the ultimate circuit oday managed to install a little bit of calm on the equity side of thing in the currency markets. This is so important compared to yesterday when the central bank came out and cut the reference august,the most since shocking the market, sending ripples through the equities market. And, of course, that is what triggered the trading halt. It raise questions about other regulators in china talking to each other . What is the big picture . They are sending confusing signals on the currency and on equities. Obviously, they had good meetings last night and good telephone calls and they managed to work out a script. Today they put aside the idea of a Circuit Breaker which people felt had been conjuring to volatility and the central bank is trying to keep things nice and calm. By all accounts their aim was stability and they achieved it to some extent. Francine how do you wrap up the week . What does this tell us about chinese thinking . Because that is what we are trying to understand. They had problems stability. Transparency. Isaiah going back on their word or are they trying to figure out what is going on . Are they going back on their word or are they trying to figure out what is going on . Enda they left a very confused state behind them this week. The message is quite a confusing one. The broader picture in china as one of a modernizing, transforming, liberalizing economy. Be and while there will bumps in the road as every emerging markets, people are surprised that the extent and scale to which the hand of state still wants to keep meddling with the market and are not willing to let the stock market find the floor on itself. They are not willing, or they putting a floor under the yuan even though they say they want to free it up. The markets have been left they have taken quite a dent. In their defense to step back and you say this is a massive economy. What they are trying to do is a massive transformation. No emerging market in the world has achieved mature advanced status without capital and market interruptions and complications we are seeing as china tries to open his capital account. Those are points in their defense. In the near term, there is a view that china has explaining to do. Francine that is probably fair. Thank you so much. In hong kong. Now lets get straight to our guest this morning. Cross Bridge Capital strategist and head of investments where he manages to billion dollars in assets. Great have you on the program. Im so glad to see you survived the week. It has been so brutal. These equityot of markets are stabilizing. Is there one word that you would summit up with . The circuitow brigade is the Circuit Breaker is gone. It was badly design because she the circlehad 5 break it will get the Circuit Breaker we get triggered. China is the largest trading nation. The largest creditor. What happened in china matters. My view is that the Global Growth is slowing but not crashing. Even if you saw the which has been lowered to. 7 notcine did the week actually show policy mistakes . Circuit breakers were badly design and something did not work out. We have gone back to the china we knew several months ago intervention is. Yuan isthe chinese going to get weekend. That is where you saw the stronger fixing. Because china was to control his capital flow. It intends to open the capital,. To give you an example. When israel tried to open the capital account in 1978, they closed it in two years time it has such a bad run. The challenges that china is facing. Francine i understand the challenges and we need to give it more time but as an investor, what does it mean . Or pretendss risk that chinas financial something goes wrong . It has a profound impact on commodity markets. [indiscernible] local players are playing a bigger francine it also had an impact on oil. You forecast the oil price in setting up valuations . Francine thank you so much for now. He stays with us. We have plenty more to talk about including the yuan. Plenty coming up. Will the jobs number out of the u. S. Be good enough to reassure markets jitters after the weeks china rout . We go live to new york for that discussion. Then too big too value. Company. Abia, an oil is the era of cheap oil taking its toll. The china is hit by contagion coming up next. Francine welcome back to the pulse streaming on bloomberg. Com in your tablet and your phone. Before todays free, chinas stock market lost more than 1 trillion in the first four days of the week. Yesterday the dax fell below 10,000 as investors worried what it could mean for europes largest economy. Lets speak to Michael Fuchs deputy leader of the Christian Democratic Union and a key ally to Angela Merkel. Forael fuchs, thank you joining us. Happy new year. How badly are you concerned about the china turmoil . How badly will that affect german business or the German Industries as a whole . Michael first of all, china is a very important partner to us. Is having if china trouble, it is troublesome for our industry, particularly the big ones like Car Manufacturers and chemistry. On the other hand, i do believe that china is getting back on track. China is still talking about some percent growth rate. 7 growth rate. It is a decent number. So, i am not so pessimistic that china is going to be in a deep crisis. So, we are expecting that it comes down to a certain level now. And then it picks up again because china has to grow because only if it grows they are capable to manage their country. Francine what was clear in the last couple days is that european stocks took a beating and were in expansionary mode. With the ecb adding more q. E. Europe seems to me sucked seems to be sucked in by the rest of the world. Look toowe should not much into the stock situation. The stocks are nervous. It starts with a bad side from china after they blocked the Stock Exchange for two days. But i have been working in china for many years. Sometimes the chinese are a little bit exaggerated. And also gambling too much on the Stock Exchange, much more than european dealers are. We should not be too dramatic. Feeling the whole situation is overdone, over exaggerated. I believe in a short time people will see that china will still have a decent or reasonable clo se rate and not knocking down western markets. Neither german nor the other ones. Francine Michael Fuchs, we also heard the last couple of days and i guess this would be another one of the main problems would be the refugee crisis. We heard about the seuxal sexual assaults in cologne. That impact or make Angela Merkels job a lot more difficult when dealing with refugees . Francine definitely michael definitely. What happened in cologne is not bearable. It is foreally terrible. We have to react with all forces of the state and we have to the police asked control the situation. It has gone fully out of control. It is really terrible. We have to do something and we have to react. I know we are sitting together over this weekend together with the chancellor and we are looking for some points which would change in the law in order to be more fast, more decisive with refugees. And the refugees have to accept they come to germany. They are very welcome to come, but they have to accept our laws. That is something we have to make clear from the very first movement. And those guys who are not willing to accept german rules, german law, german practices, they have to go back. Francine but you are talking of course about rules and regulations. Do you think it will force Angela Merkel to put a cap on the number of foreigners allowed into germany . Michael it is very difficult to put a cap. 500,000,put a cap of what do we do with the poor guy coming from syria and he is 500,001 . I do not think this is reasonable. We have to go to the sources. We have to go to syria and turkey and lebanon and so on where they are coming from and to try to find solutions over there. In their respective countries. Even in africa, or eritrea, somalia, nigeria and libya. We have to do something over there because unless we stop it over there, we cannot stop it if they are europe already. What do you want us to do . . Ut a fence around germany impossible. Francine does it actually put Angela Merkel at risk . It seems more and more farfetched to make sure the outer borders allow more people in. What impact her thinking on that . Michael no. First of all, we have to find solutions abroad in those countries where the people are coming from. Of course, and understand it is not easy to find a solution for syria. And it is also not easy to find a solution for turkey. But anyway, this is something has to do together. We have to put our forces to build up a new to enlarge the frontex situation. It is not enough funded, not enough people and things like that. That is what we have to do. It cannot be the case that the people are coming over the sea into greece, into italy and then they are all going to germany. That is not ok. And there is another point which i like to mention. Europe has to do some kind of solidarity. It is not the case that just germany is taking all of refugees. It is also sweden, denmark. And there are many other countries profiting from the e. U. System, profiting from us to pay into brussels 30 of the net dollars is paid by germany but we cannot pay 30 to the e. U. And at the same time take all the refugees. That is unfair. I expect more solidarity. Francine interesting. This will be one of the things aat can puts europe at crossroads and divides europe. You are advocating on the show that it would be wise to let greece leave last year. We have moved on from that but we look at brexit. How concerned are you that David Cameron will not be able to renegotiate in this country may end up leaving the e. U. . Michael i didnt get you right. Are you talking about grexit or brexit . Francine brexit. About the u. K. Michael it would be very terrible. It is vital that the u. K. Is a member of the e. U. We want to Work Together with them. I think it is absolutely necessary. The four main aims of renegotiating, i can understand them. Economic governance is the only thing which i am a little bit concerned. I would put it like this. You cannot be not a member of a club that you want to have the same rules. Cameron is talking about he wants to have the same rules like the eurozone has without being a member. That is a difficult point. But all the others, talking about competitiveness or talking about immigration, talking about sovereignty and talking about red cards to brussels of their coming up with nonsense bureaucracy, thats all clear and we are very much on the same side. And also, particularly competitors is a target for germany to do it together with your country because i want to say, well, the Southern Hemisphere is talking a little bit different than us. In. We need u. K. To stay francine thank you so much. Plain talking Michael Fuchs, the deputy leader of germanys Christian Democratic Union. I want to show you the markets because we saw them stabilize yesterday. Ll below 10,000. Today it is not. Stoxx europe gaining 0. 5 . The yen has been used as a haven all week. For the first time its the other way around. We will see you in a couple of minutes. We will be back for our guests take on the market follow from this weeks china rout as we await job numbers from the u. S. Francine welcome back to the pulse live on bloomberg tv and radio esteeming and your cap and streaming on your tablet and phone and bloomberg. Com. Nish, overall you are pretty confident china will sort itself out. We have to give it time. Are we going to see much more volatility in the coming months as we try and figure out a, what the fed will do and we find maybe a new normal . Going i think there is to be volatility. If you look at the jobs report coming up this friday, it is slightly better. How the market has reacted, the market on average has been 4 to 7 . You will see volatility continuing into march as well. Overall some people them and saying that in 1984 when the Oil Market Crash and lots of bankruptcies, then the problem was inflation. Here the problem is deflation. The market things it will be out of the deflation trap. Francine you do not agree with george soros. Dont think so. Im forcibly i believe that we have a bigger deflation problem then and inflation problem. I am not in the camp that will raise the rate. Those become apparent when you start seeing the rate numbers. There is a whole discussion about the middle income shrinking and middle cash renting. But is not going to grow in what are grow in one or two years time. Francine you have the opposition were fed expects for great heights in the markets do not believe them. The jobs number today is so crucial because we will look at that wage growth. Manish true. Wage growth is the number to look at. I think the jobs number will be slightly positive. You might get a tick down as well. [indiscernible] how does that impact the earningspershare on the stock market . My view you might have a 200 point swing containers throughout the year. 1850 is my range. I do not see you knew francine what do you do with treasuries . Manish given the rescue, you still buy. Because it gives you more than 10year yields that italian bonds. It gives you Better Safety and then you play the market. Francine if we get a big disappointment today, does it mean the fed will live hike at all . Will not hike at all . Manish you had the commentary last night as well. We have the fed coming out in december to show it was dovish. There was a question about whether it was a place a close call. Some people will run ahead of themselves. But my scenario is that growth is not very strong. Deflation is going to be a problem. We will see big topline growth. You have to play some stocks. Francine thank you so much for all of that. At cross Bridge Capital. Now, coming up on the pulse to new yorke head ahead of the latest jobs data and look at chinese stocks again. When youre on hold, your business is on hold. Thats why comcast business doesnt leave you there. When you call, a Small Business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. No annoying hold music. Just a real person, real fast. Whenever you need them. So your business can get back to business. Sounds like my rides ready. Dont get stuck on hold. Reach an expert fast. Comcast business. Built for business. Francine welcome to the pulse live in london. Im Francine Lacqua. Now, we are getting breaking data from the u. K. Mark barton has details. Trade deficits narrowed in november. It drove down the cost of overseas goods. Billiontfall was 10. 6 pounds compared with 11. 2 billion in october. Thats according to the ons, the office for national statistics. Economists in the Bloomberg Survey had forecast 10. 5 billions. By one point 3 . Imports declined by 2. 5 . Oil imports fell by 18 . The trade deficit, including the surplus on services, narrative 3. 1 7 billion. This modest improvement may not be enough to prevent trade once again exerting a drag on the economy. The total trade gap will widen in the Fourth Quarter unless december sees a deficit of 2. 1 billion pounds or less. Trade last provided by the way in 2011. One of the problems from manufacturers in the u. K. Is the strength of sterling. And interestingly, as we were saying yesterday, sterling fell to the lowest level since june 2010 against the dollar. The pound is rising against the dollar today. This is a chart for 2016. Its up against the dollar for the first day this week. What i have done as i looked at the level of sterling against its basket, against the trade weighted index. Since augustngly, when the bank of england cited the strength of sterling as a it helpsecause manufacturers ability to export and it pushes down on Inflation Expectations. Since then, the pound versus the leadingas fall

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