Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20170113 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance January 13, 2017

Out of 30 cabinet ministers who backed a leave vote back in june. She joins us at 9 40 u. K. Time. First things first. Lets check on your markets. We are just three days away from davos. To a lot ofpeaking former Prime Ministers, current Prime Ministers, heads of state, and ceos. The dollar set for a weekly loss. Stocks climbing. Gold a touch on the up. Be the mood in the market that investors are trying to assess whether markets move higher since the u. S. Election may have gone a little too far. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news. Heres sebastian salek. Sebastian chinas exports remained subdued last month as weak Global Growth laid on demand. Overseas shipments fell in december while imports rose more than 3 to leave a 41 billion trade surplus. The Worlds Largest exporter faces challenges as it braces for potential trade frictions with the u. S. Under a Trump Presidency. Fiat chrysler milan shares are on the up having plunged yesterday after it was accused of cheating on diesel emissions. The u. S. Environmental Protection Agency says software was put in certain vehicles, allowing them to exceed pollution delimits illusion limits. The company says it met all necessary regulatory requirements. Morgan stanley is reportedly cutting bonuses for Investment Bankers by 15 and firing 20 managing directors. They were more than usual. That is according to reuters, citing sources it didnt identify after Morgan Stanley reduced compensation cost at its Investment Banking and trading unit in 2016. U. K. Prime minister theresa may will set out her vision for brexit and her hopes for creating a Global Britain in a speech on tuesday. The address will attempt to answer calls from businesses and politicians for more detail on her goals as she prepares to trigger the process for leaving the European Union. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. Francine thank you so much. The french antie. U. President ial candidate, Marine Le Pen, was at trump tower last night. An ally of the president elect who lives in the building said she was visiting him. She just happened to be here because i happen to live here. We didnt want to have a party for her in some restaurant for some open place so we did a very private event. We had a whole bunch of friends. It just happened to be a trump tower. That was yesterday evening. We did not reach out to the trump campaign. Francine lets bring in our Global Business correspondent, stephanie baker, who has been following donald trump carefully since the election, and jeremy cook. Thank you both for joining us. Stephanie, every day theres something new. Yesterday there was a kerfuffle because we hear Marine Le Pen is at trump tower. That was laid to rest. Happensher own ally who to live in trump tower. Do we believe that . Stephanie i think she was trying to make a political statement just by showing up at trump tower. Knowing that the place is crawling with reporters, it would be unlikely that her visit would go unnoticed. Shes trying to gain a little legitimacy by associating herself more closely with trump. We have to take those statements at face value that she was there to meet we know lombardi, that mr. Lombardi said they had not requested a meeting with trump, knowing that trump does not meet with foreign leaders like that, and we have to take that at face value and accept that she was not trying to do anything more, but showing up at trump tower is a statement itself. Francine the sky Bridge Capital founder, who has come on bloomberg many times, has now an official role in the trunk administration. Stephanie another example of trump rewarding loyal supporters and donors that backed him during the campaign. Whiteoing to be a general house advisor, we understand. Unclear what he will be doing and what portfolio will fall under that position. Scaramucci was considered unusual for Backing Trump at that point. Hes obviously built a , but it isbusiness unclear what hes going to do with that business now that he becomes a white house advisor. Francine jeremy, how do you look at politics . Jeremy politics is currency at the moment. The only thing people are talking about in markets are politics. Some people are now starting to talk about the impact of politics on markets. The Marine Le Pen visit to trump tower was interesting. Postthe brexit vote, she was the first foreign politician to tweet congratulations. Francine shes always the first one. Jeremy true. Shes been tying herself to these campaigns for a wild. It makes it interesting for the euro. Francine does it have an impact on currencies that you watch . Jeremy we are seeing a lot of Euro Weakness into the early part of 2017 based around the three major elections, possibly election,aly goes to over the next 12 months. We believe the fears over the French Election are overdone and the fears over the dutch election are underdone in the shortterm. Stephanie, yesterday we were talking about this news conference. What are we expecting from donald trump next . The inauguration is a week from now. We are on tweed watch, i imagine. Stephanie i dont think hes scheduled to give another press conference. Very little discussion so far on what the inauguration will include, his speech, anything along those lines. That is what we will be looking for next week. . Ell be there what is he going to say . Who is going to perform in the inauguration . That is still unclear. Francine do people care about that . If you are an american citizen, people write about it in lot in does it just feed fire to his base supporters . Stephanie with previous president s, there is more attention put on the inauguration, a lot more coverage of what is he going to say, what is the message hes going to deliver, what are the themes for help is going to govern, and theres been very little discussion of that. Hes been having trouble securing someone to sing at his inauguration. Previously, with obama, in the runup to both his inaugurations, there was a lot more coverage of that. Francine we will keep an eye on that. Lets also talk about the fed. With the u. S. And Federal Reserve chair janet yellen says that he American Economy faces no serious shortterm obstacles, but must deal with important longterm challenges of low productivity and growing inequality. She added that one sign of success with being able to keep the central bank out of headlines. Ms. Yellen if we are doing our work successfully, our hope is the economy will generally function well. , instead ofappening being on page one, we can be back on page 19 in the newspapers, not in the headlines. Jeremy, stephanie and stephanie, you first, how much do we know about the policy between the fed and who donald trump wants to replace in a years time when Janet Yellens term comes to an end . Stephanie we havent gotten any details on that. Hes got an incredible sway over the future of the fed, given the number of fed governors hes able to appoint. The real question will be, does is anoint someone who inflation hawk, given the expectations that inflation will rise, given his promise of tax cuts and Infrastructure Spending, who will he appoint . Will they allow inflation to rise more and keep Interest Rates low or will he appoint someone that will be a bit more of a hawk . Francine jeremy, how much do we understand about what donald trump knows or he wants about the Federal Reserve . Was speaking to the former chief of staff for george osborne. He says no matter what politicians say, once they are in charge, they want low rates. Jeremy exactly right. We know a little bit about what trump wants around the fed in so much that the way he structured his campaign was, disagree with everything obama had done. Obviously janet yellen is an obama appointee. He could galvanize his base by saying obama has done this, disagree with it, and i will replace her. Noises we are hearing from the administration in the grand scheme of things tend to suggest they are slightly more happy with higher rates of inflation. He is a real estate guy. They like low Interest Rates. It is a difficult circle. Francine how do you see how much can foreign between Foreign Policy and the fed, what do you worry about the most . Jeremy i think it has to be Foreign Policy. Easynk he will pick some fights in his first 100 days. He will pick a fight against mexico, i think. I dont think he will take on china too dramatically. Francine what does that mean . Does it mean theres much more weakness to be had in mexican peso . Jeremy weve seen a lot more weakness in mexican peso for larger trading nations against the u. S. Dollar and we have against the canadian dollar, or other asian currencies since the election. Much more has been priced into the mexican peso. If you believe donald trump as a bully, they tend to pick on the weaker ones first. Who would you pick a fight with . China or mexico . Whether that is border taxes, the beginning of the building of the wall, that will t ypify, i think, his first 100 days. Very little discussion has been placed on the fact that he doesnt have the ability to impose a border tax without congressional approval. Even his ability to impose tariffs on imports, unclear whether he can do that without involving congress. It really is a question of how much congressional support he can get for those measures, given that it could have a huge Economic Impact on the u. S. Economy. Francine stephanie baker, thank you. Jeremy cook stays with us. Bloomberg will be speaking to the former u. S. Defense secretary, leon panetta, later on. Heres something to look ahead to in the coming week. Bloomberg brings you full coverage of the annual World Economic forum in davos. Highlights include a panel on the future of finance. Guests include john cryan on tuesday. On wednesday, a discussion on the crisis of the middle class. Ill be hosting Christine Lagarde, italys finance minister, the bridgewaters rau y dalio, and larry summers. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash. Sebastian boeing has won in order for 205 planes from spice jet. The deal which includes 100 jets builds on an existing order for 55 aircraft. The carrier has the option to buy 50 more. Combined, the order is worth 22 billion at list price for discounts that are customary. Shares have fallen in tokyo trading after announcing details of its new gaming console. Switch will go on sale march 3 with a price of 300 and comes with an Online Gaming network. The price is higher than most analysts predicted. Volkswagen held talks with daimler over Strategic Options or than a decade ago. According to people in the discussions, they include seniorlevel talks on a possible deal that would have given the carmaker access to daimlers diesel technology. Vw abruptly called off the talks and forced and with its own diesel systems. Officials declined to comment on the past discussions. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you. Fiat chrysler has been accused of violating pollution laws by the u. S. Environmental Protection Agency. Putepa alleges the Company Software in cars that allows them to accede pollution limits. Casehryslers ceo said the is completely different from volkswagen. Lets get more with bloombergs senior italy reporter, Tommaso Ebhardt. Happened here and what was the companys first reaction . Tommaso essentially, the companys reaction was very, very, very strong denial on all these allegations. Marchionne spoke with american and italian reporters to explain that the case is completely different from vw. Then they have no defeat device in their vehicles. At the center of the case are the epa allegations that Fiat Chrysler put in some of its vehicles a Software Control on the emissions. The Software Controls are not illegal, but you have to tell the epa what are you doing with that and why you are using the software. The epa said fiat failed to explain the case. Marchionne also said it is very strange, the timing, in the last week of the obama administration. This epa administration, he said he hoped not to be part of a political game. Earlier this week, when we met marchionne, marchionne said that trump could support a fiatgm merger. He announced a 1 billion investment in the u. S. , adding 2000 jobs, moving a product back from mexico to the u. S. , all things that could be seen as a way to please the new administration. Francine thank you so much, Tommaso Ebhardt with great insight from milan. Lets change our focus to china. Experts remain subdued. Overseas shipments dropped 6. 1 in december from a year earlier. The country has asked some banks to stop processing crossborder you on payments until they balance inflows and outflows. That is according to people familiar with the matter. Is with me this morning. How do you feel china . Jeremy it is a bit of flux at the moment as we wait on what trump is likely to do. The economy is still weak. Still ait problem is problem. Exports too. The e. U. Fell, the u. S. Fell, but within asia, quite strong. If we are seeing a chinese pivot away from asia or an asian. Away from china, that could be an interesting dynamic. Theres so much Politics Around the movements in the yuan, the movements of donald trump. Difficult to say where they are going to be. Francine jeremy cook, chief economist and head of currency strategy at world first u. K. , the man behind a deal that saved hundreds of jobs. Sanjeev gupta joins us to talk about the companys latest acquisition. If you have a bloomberg terminal, you can follow us on the new and improved tv go. There you can watch the show, indirect with our graphics you can play around. Watch bloomberg tv and you can discuss a lot of things we do with our guests. We have the main benchmarks and all of our charts. You can interact with all of us. This is bloomberg. Francine welcome back. This is bloomberg surveillance. Hundreds of jobs were saved in the u. K. When Engineering Company Liberty House bought out supplier cough press from administrators this week. The deal secures positions of skilled workers in coventry. Joining us now is the executive chairman, sanjeev gupta. You are considered a hero when you saved a lot of these jobs. Steel took a lot of time from the government. There was speculation about lenders. Do you remember times when you were involved in this transaction where you thought, im not speaking to the right person . It was a very difficult and unique situation. The pension fund continues to be a big challenge for any resolution to steal in the u. K. The government did the best it could in the given situation. Anythinghink there was i felt that wasnt being addressed. Francine so you still have more talks, right, in february. Concluded and we entered an exclusive period to complete the acquisition of the specialty business, which is the downstream business making aerospace, oil and gas, in yorkshire. Int is expected to conclude february. Francine are you expecting to put any more investments or money to use in the u. K. . It is not clear how we need to model brexit at this moment. What does it mean for how much money you want to commit . Sanjeev we are very committed to the u. K. Our journey started prior to brexit. Nonetheless, brexit does heighten the importance of u. K. Industry. It makes it a more central focus. That helps our motivation as well. We want to get to 5 million tons of steel in the u. K. From recycled steel, so we launched our recycling business. That will feed our furnaces, which we already have several of, which will eventually feed engineering businesses. Francine my first reporting job was on steel. Ive been to many steel factories. That ifconcerned tariffs go up because of brexit negotiations it is going to be so much more difficult for you to export and import . Sanjeev first point is i dont expect that to happen. I think u. K. Will remaina n open economy remain an for an economy and i dont think there will be any barriers to trade. Francine this is because youve spoken to the government . Sanjeev there are plenty of countries in the west. Theres no barriers between them. There are a few here and there, but whether we are in europe or not should not make a difference. The second thing is, our focus is u. K. , using ours local own capital, energy plants, getting help from our new Financial Services division. All of this is focused on the u. K. It is an internal circular model. Francine the problem, i imagine, playing devils advocate a little bit, steel you used to build things. Are you concerned there will be a shortage of workers to be able to use your steel . Sanjeev i dont think so. In terms of workers, first of ,ll we have these industries we still have a very strong skill base here. We do need to refocus on it. We will focus on creating more jobs and also better jobs and more highly skilled jobs. Factoryple, the alloy which we are building in the skilleds, that requires labor. I think there will be more opportunities in the u. K. , not less. Francine sanjeev gupta, thank you so much for now. Up next, our weekly show, brexit whats next. We will be joined by theresa villiers. This is bloomberg. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe

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