Welcome, everyone to the most important hour of the session. 60 minutes until the closing bell. Coming up, terrible tech and the momentum mess. The big names you know and love losing steam. Wondering if we are in a deflated tech bubble. Unrest in the east. Inhing government buildings the ukraine and the government warns an antiukrainian plan is underway. The response to the turmoil. All that and more coming up. The stocks we are watching as we head into the close. Heading out to olivia sterns. All about the momentum stocks as you just mentioned. Consumer discretionary. Trip advisor brandon up nearly 98 last year, selling off today by about four percent. Sold off last friday. One of the worst performers in the s p 500. Today the worst performing sector. A similar stock falling in sympathy. A big momentum name if yahoo . A huge year for yahoo in 2013. The stock down about 3. 5 . Finally, we are watching shares of amazon in the red as well. Down by about two percent. The stock trades at 500 60 times reported earnings. Thank you so much. Time now for our big story. Talking about the tech bubble. Nasdaq to clinton continuing a decline after the worst selloff in two months. Google like names like google, facebook, and netflix. Wailing out of the bull market. About valuations and the tech bubble. Should you wait for the frothy markets to boil over . Joining me is cory johnson. Brian blair in my guest host for the hour, day velocity, the advisory president and founder. Brian blair, what is the concern here in . Have we gotten ourselves to a bit of a mini bubble intact, and should investors be backing away from that . I think it is more of a healthy correction necessary. If we wind the clock act, we have a nerdy eight percent gain on the nasdaq. A lot of the big names like netflix and others over 100 on the year. Right now we are just to head into earnings for the First Quarter and i think investors want to see if we will see growth rates continue for the back half of the year. I think it is time to wait and take a breather. I think we will need to see earnings that the current valuations are still good. The valuations are still high. Netflix training at 140 times earnings. The p e ratio not necessarily how you want to value a tech stock. , 700 times earnings gives me. Freak actual return is the way you want to value any stock. I think what we have seen is linkedin, amazon, netflix notwithstanding, i think we have seen chasing down the yield curve, investors going after return anywhere that they can find it. Power much greater risk in places like solar, 3d printing. Electric cars. Social media. Tremendous excitement about the new things because there is hope you will be yield there because it does not exist anywhere else in the market. Likes willing to do just about anything for growth. We will talk about it later in the show. Investors chasing the companies that have the promise of something because they want to be first there, the chance to cash in on whatever the next big thing is. Whatsapp, it is like it is not real money. I do not know that people truly believe they are investing in the next big thing. Lets not get too excited. Nasdaq of 13 this year with a spectacular return for three months. Last year for the nasdaq, i think investor would take that kind of return. 27 e more to the point, gain in the nasdaq is spectacular. More to the point that people are chasing returns are chasing them. I do not think they fundamentally believe everyone will have a 3d printer at their desk next year but chasing an investor return. I agree. For the is looking return. 3d printing has been very hot the past few months. But one thing that has happened is smart growth smartphones have been a huge tech driver. We know growth is flowing there. One thing happening right now is we see investors look or other areas like wearable computing. Samsung will introduce the next wearable watch this year. We think apple will do something that ball in this category. You mentioned whatsapp that facebook bought oculus. By the way, oculus does not even have a product. Not coming out until summertime. The point is, investors are looking for the next big category. Taking aeveryone pause. I think you can return to bullishness again if you see consistent guidance. What are the ramifications for the rest of the market. Two additional points we have not discussed. China. Huge amount of tech ipos coming out of china. Those things are being marked down. Secondly, and most importantly, we have the fed pulling back on kiwi and perfectly natural for the high flyers the market to be the first race but reflect the slow look with drawl of liquidity. Tech has been a leader for the rest of the market. Over the past month it is leading the market down. That means less liquidity. The things that have run the most, most aggressive hummus storied stocks will feel that most immediately. Therefore, this pullback is very minor to date. Could go down a lot further without even blinking. It probably is healthy. The question for the Broader Market is it tech will not be the leader as it has been, what will be the leader . That is why i struggle with the market that will be led by utilities and materials and that is why people were talking about the rotation into the laggards such heirs. I do not see a market relative to the whole world if we will be led by the utilities. Taper, you said a pretty active fed and keeping Interest Rates at zero for the foreseeable future. That pushes people out on the risk curve and pushes them to find better sources of growth. That is the flip side of the argument. With china collapsing more big issues with growth in china and the big offering of shares of alibaba alone, that alone could suck capital out of the market. When you talk about the highfliers seeing a sellout, you can see specific stocks. The market did not seem to care when they put a crummy quarters. All this and you see thats not coming off quite a bit. That shows you the risk was ignored through january. That has changed a bit. Ryan talked about we had to sing brian talked about weird to see strong results. We have seen really strong result that Companies Like ibm and oracle. Some of the stocks have traded up. Good things to say about june quarter growth. Seeing a lot more traditional approach to growth. The reason why the market will focus on earnings, cousin no longer has the fed backing it up to the same extent it has. The fed pulls back. Earnings become more important. Starting to move back. If you are in a fundamental environment. And are not earning the money, maybe you back off of that . Especially if youre up 300 . Of course. We see that and a lot of small cap tech names where growth is not expected for two or three years out. Investors say im not paying for that right now. Lex the question is when do we see exogenous risk factor . When do we see something really year to that comes in like a ukraine issue or highfrequency trading suddenly yanking the plug . What kind of thing doing not see coming that at the time of the markets is going to care about results at a time when the fed starting to pull back and maybe has more pullback yet to come amid that is when the outside risks loom larger. Today it is not really the fear. The issue today is the u. S. Emerging markets are up today. Emerging market debt is up today. Look at china, it is up. The issue for today is u. S. Tech. Thank you. Coming up next, the crisis in ukraine as prorussian forces storm forces in the east. What it means for the region and your portfolio. T home sophisticated ring of hackers at Neiman Marcus is that has hackers that have stolen 160 credit card numbers over the past seven years. Why retailers are so susceptible. Back with more right after this. The ukraine crisis is so going strong. Several hundred demonstrators have co seize government buildings in several different cities. It u. S. Also announced today will send a navy ship to the region in the black sea in support for ukraine. The unrest caused russian stocks to fund more than 10 . We are joined by an investor who is more than 30 years of Global Investment experience and more than 45 in more than 45 countries. You called it right with the usa that is a great place to be investing. What are you saying about russia right now. I think putin is stirring up trouble because the he sees this as a domestic votegetter. Look at the popularity. The russian stock market goes goes up. His popularity this is domestic politics in to be leading food and active in the ukraine. Do you think it will have real economic consequences . Minor sanctions doing nothing. Economicthe consequences and therefore, maybe eventual political consequences . That is exactly right, almost a test between broad popularity and the oligarchs being upset with him. If the currency weakens and they cannot Access Capital brought. Artie down seven percent. I think it can go lower. Taking over crimea is expensive. Activity there. Sanctions are negative. They have had to jack up Interest Rates to protect the currency. That is a negative for growth. Brescia are ready barely growing this year. Cash for them has been struggling. Russia are ready barely growing this year. To moneynt to investments inside area. All of this is costly. The play is not to go along but to go short. That is why it is not obvious but it is an opportunity. I think it is an opportunity of 35 to the dollar here. For the next month and a half through the elections in the ukraine late may, i think he will try to destabilize this. Once this idea in itself, the idea there is a far right wing that is beating up russian people, that is not going to fly. The next six weeks area problematic. The thing we have not touched on is the risk of lower oil prices. Exposed to anyy decline in the price of oil. There is something called oil on the water. I think of it is Something Like smoke on the water. In shipse water is oil that is waiting to find land. That is at a record level. Having a significant risk of downside prices and oil so you have an oil selloff and continued destabilization of ukraine and the elections. A ruvell that has clawed back a little bit of the valuation. I think they can go weaker. Very cheapem to be on valuation basis. I do not know. Expensive thanre the russian market is cheap. Opportunityds, the is more shorting the currency than going long in the stock market. Lex you are sticking with me. Thank you. The virtual rate of Neiman Marcus credit card system is being blamed on a group of hackers who have stolen over 160 million credit card numbers over the past seven years. More details right after this break. More details right after this break. Welcome back. Time for todays global outlook. Following the very large target security breach, Neiman Marcus announced its own smaller breach. They have hacked more than 160 million credit card numbers over seven years. Michael white joins me now from washington with the details. Michael, tell me more about this group. Piece theyed in the are from russia and have hacked into 160 million different cards. That is amazing and must be highly sophisticated. No question these guys are good. Hard to figure out identities behind the ip addresses but these guys are really well known, in part because they have been a major target of the the i in secret service for years. They have hacked what one source differentver 100 Companies Like jcpenney, 711, nasdaq, and now the latest revelation is they were behind an Neiman Marcus attack. 160 million credit cards over seven years. People we have been talking to people say these are the best of the best. They are located overseas. Does that make it difficult . It does. They actually know very specific members of the group. U. S. Attorney in new jersey issued an indictment that named five of them. One is a low level guy. One looks to be more serious. For the ones that are still in russia, there is not awful lot that can be done. No extradition treaty train russia and the u. S. And the fbi and secret service has spent years trying to develop contacts with russian Law Enforcement to convince them to round these guys up to no effect. At one point the fbi just decided in fact that they were giving the names and dossiers of very highest highlevel criminals and were using them for their own purposes him including recruiting. Before i talk about what it means for the stock prices of the various companies affected him a what are the average deaths thefts . I they going after small amounts or for all they can run a . Run up . Make money is you sell them on underground sites. The people who buy the cards are usually different from the people who steal them. They create fake cards and go into a store and try to buy Something Like a bigscreen tv and then they can sell the tv or exchange it and do all sorts of rings. Not necessarily the same people doing the hacking. They make their money by selling the cards. When you sell 100 60 million cards and anywhere from 10 50 apiece, that is a lot of money. You mentioned jcpenney was one of the companies. We all know about the target problem. People do not really want to stop in the stores after there is a headline like this. Look at the foot traffic in target and you can see people really backed off. What does a scare like this due to accompany . It is probably due to the fact that there is a problem. But i are an investor, think that effect will be less and less as a happens more and more. This is not the first, second or third time this is happening. Maybe to your point, we can get smarter about it and invest in technology to prevent it from happening in the first place. Very smart people on the side of trying to it trying to protect the identity. About investing in the Cyber Security space, as opposed to saying i want to short every retail name because at some point someone will steal some stuff in the stock. Unfortunately in the case of target a have the opportunity to invest more on the front. Even the information was right in front of them. Weve reported they ignored a lot of the warnings. We have to leave it there. Inc. You for joining us. Coming up, president obamas big push for equal pay. What is taking so long . Pickup quick look at the nasdaq, which has rallied back to the flatline. We have only rally down 10 . Down 1. 6 you can see earlier this afternoon i really climbing back there. Unlike where we were friday and ended at the lows of the session. Meantime, president obama making an equal pay play. This week the president will do to increase transparency of the u. S. Federal contractors pay practices. He is proposing to eliminate gag rules that prevent individuals working on Government Contractors from discussing pay with one another. The president will instruct the Labor Department to draft rules requiring contractors to provide sex and pay data by race. This comes conveniently ahead of the state and congressional election. Us is the ceo and former chief of staff for former president clement clinton, sabrina schaeffer, independent women form director and economic the rector Michael Mckee. Toml pay for an even will it will for an evil job, seems as we look at the . 70 on the dollar statistics for women that this will be a pretty topical issue as we head into november. I think it is a very important issue. Thank you so much for inviting me. As we discussed previously, equal pay effects a large number of women obviously but also their families. Are a disparities noneconomic barrier. Dislike nonanother economic riers, if this towards distorts the economy. As a good measure of economic policy, we should have these non and not have these non, economic factors distorting what should otherwise be pay for equal work. Me, a thing amazing to study pointed out by my colleague Michael Mckee from the st. Louis fed which actually looked at jobs that women do compared to men and it was very much apples to apples, oranges to oranges and what it actually aund is there is not as big disparity as the numbers we are getting from the administration or u. S. Labor department would suggest. The st. Louis fed concluded there was only a 3. 6 difference in terms of the wage gap between men and women. The st. Louis fed is looking at this in the white house is not go there are various ways to measure a man that is the issue. If you look at womens wages versus men, you get the . 70 on the dollar. If you control for the occupations that men and women are in and compare women and men youhave the same job, then end up with a five percent figure. Three point six percent is when you also add in benefits. There is evidence that women choose jobs in many cases because they way maybe wants more childcare help or more maternity, and when you add that together, that is what the researchers found that it may come down to 3. 6 . This . We oversimplifying this is not the only study to have shown this. Economist june oneill has done many studies that show the same thing. Even the liberal American Association of University Women have done a similar study, also finding the wage gap is much smaller than it has been repeatedly aided by the president and activists. I think it is important if we want to try to shrink it even more or help women get what they to have an honest conversation about what the real numbers are. The administration oversimplifying it i say and women are making . 77 on the dollar as opposed to looking at what job a woman is doing. That is a very kind way of saying. What theyre doing is lying. We all know the number is overstated in the pay gap is smaller than what they say. Men and women are different. They choose different majors in college. Nursing pays less than petroleum engineering. Women choose to take more time out of the workplace. If you look at how women in earlier 20s are doing compared to male counterparts, they are making more. Women 35 and older with our children are also making more than men. The reality is this is far oversimplified the white house and should have an honest conversation. Again, midterms on the way. Certainly sounds good. This is an economic issue. Economic issue. 3. 5 , whatever the disparity him if it is based on gender, it should not be. Should be eliminated from the economy. It is that simple. In terms of the data, as you know, president obama is going to sign an executive order tomorrow with regard to federal contractors and salary data, and i think that is a very good thing. More transparency on paper offices. We want greater transparency, so hopefully federal contractors will comply with that. Why have i not heard more abo