Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Street Smart 20150508

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buying a visa europe for as much as $20 billion. and syngenta --teva is in talks to take over mylan. and new england patriots quarterback tom brady says the team championship was not tainted by the championship controversy over deflated footballs. an nfl investigation found that tom brady probably knew about it and he could be suspended and the team could face a major fine. we have less than an hour to go until the close of trading, and let's go right to our breaking news desk where senior advisor julie hyman is there. julie: we have materials technology, health care, and energy leading the game, but these were all groups in the energy sectors that were rising, and we can put this in the laps of the job report. this is just strong enough that it does support economic strength or an economic recovery, and yet just weak enough if you will that the federal reserve does not have to be, at least in theory, aggressive enough about releasing -- rising rates. this has come back up a little bit, and we are also receiving -- also seen that reflected in the dollar. all of the back-and-forth trading that we have seen that people are trying to make up the job reports -- jobs report means is that we are going to be data dependent and look for the next economic report. alix: exactly, julie, thank you so much. in line with estimates, you could call it the goldilocks report, not too much not too little, but look a little deeper, and the crocks start to emerge, you have temporary hiring any fracturing, and others all showing signs of weakness. joining me now to break it all down is true -- drew matus, of ubs, called to donna, and michael regan -- carl riccadonna and michael regan. drew: i will give this report and a minus, i would have given it a solid a, but if people keep getting hired i don't need to forecast anything else about the u.s. economy, it is doing just fine. alix: carl? carl: be minus if we see another downgrade, this is a third -- the third month in a row that we have seen these revisionsdrwe: we are going -- revisions. drwe:ew: we are going to see cage fighting later. [laughter] alix: it's really a crazy. michael: the stock market is taking this as a positive, there has been a lot of talk among some people that they believe there is some kind of pent-up wage inflation that could show up in these numbers, and obviously that has indications of profit margins and the fed, of course and that number being pretty cool today, is one of the reasons that the market is taking it pretty well. alix: we have the average hourly earnings that are pretty much flat or slightly lower, but then we have the employment cost index slightly increasing at the end of your screen at the side of your screen -- increasing at the end of your screen if you can see the. carl: i tend to like this, but if we look at the last cycle, it was decelerating like average hourly earnings, like the unit labor costs data, were accelerating, so it has a spotty track record really, so i like it in concept, but the real proof will be in when we see these metrics of wage inflation increase. alix: so drew that is one of the biggest things about this report? drew: i'm his can push out now -- i am just going to push out now. [laughter] alix: just push on back. drew: we have a lot of older people who are retiring and they tend to be paid more than the younger people who are replacing them, and that would drag down earnings, but it would be a positive for a young person than the person working at the starbucks. on the other side of it, you also have bonuses and other incentive compensation to become a much more important over the last couple of years, and eci will capture that. one of the reasons i missed the last cycle is because we did not have that information from home sales. this right now is the measure to watch even if it did not perform in the last cycle. alix: so mike, i have pretty smart economist on either side of me, and -- [laughter] michael: i agree with both of them. but the devil and the angel on either shoulder. alix: is this a general reaction to not so bad news? michael: how many times has it been said today that it is goldilocks, out of all of the quotes that are teams have brought in, everyone is stuck on that. it is not that bad of a number, it is above average for the last four years. it shows that march was most likely an anomaly. i can see carl probably shaking his head. carl: that is where our grading differs, everyone says it is an anomaly, law law law, and -- blah blahb blah, but it was worse in march than it was in april, but they were still not improving, we only created 1000 jobs in the manufacturing sector in the last few months, hours are falling, overtime is falling, and we had a big inventory overhead. drew: some manufacturers are saying that they are continuing to expand. i will go back to it, nobody is being laid off, payrolls are posting gains, i don't care with the gdp was in q1, i don't believe it. these services are saying that they are expanding. q what is expanding from q2 and q1 i do not believe was flat -- q1 is expanding from -- q2 is expanding from q1 and q1 i do not believe was flat, and i think it is easier to count people the gdp because it is hard to count everything in the economy. alix: what are we going to see from the feds based on this job report? the and up limit ray is continuing to fall at 5.4% and -- unemployment rate is continuing to fall at 54%, and we are to be forced to act according to this chart. carl: this is going to be part of that ongoing cycle where the fed will have to keep changing their on rates, and i don't know that drew and i are that far apart in our views because i do know that q2 was better than q1. but if we are just going along a 2% growth, that tells me we are moving in the right direction but we are not going to get that much inflation to push through that 5% level of unemployment and we need to see growth above trend, which is about two and a quarter, and the leading indications just are not there yet. there is the industrial report x week and i think retail will be soft as well. -- report next week and i think retail will be soft as well. alix: we will have to get to more on our break, stay tuned from the behind the scenes, thank you everyone, for joining us, drew thank you so much carl thank you, and mike, it is always a pleasure. coming up next nike is pushing for an asian trade deal, we will talk to -- talk about that, coming up next. and cameron's party won in the u k, why did not -- why did anyone see that happening? that is coming up in return. -- when we return. ♪ alix: this is "street smart" i'm alix steel. president obama arrived in portland to push his trade agenda at nike portland. if the deal is signed it it will create as many as 10,000 u.s. jobs. joining me now is phil mattingly. national correspondent, this is the first time i have said that on air with you. phil: i am honored that you would say it. we will call it official then. alix: the president's advocacy pits him against many democrats in this field. phil: today was fascinating for a lot of reasons, republicans have had a lot of problems with their practices, where they have created their products, that the president going there is almost an effort to rile up the very people he needs to get on his side. here is the white house perspective on this. engage and sit back and let others take the lead. nike is willing to make jobs based on this deal and let's work with them and raise standards and see where we can get the vietnamese to have standards raised as they work on this. that is the white house perspective here and that is what they are trying to achieve. alix, he has a long way to go, his party is not convinced. alix: what if this deal is not fast track and we head into a presidential cycle? phil: big problems. the republicans control both the house and the senate, and the votes are there to move this through the house, almost no question about it, right now at least. the big problem is you need to get 60 votes to move anything in the senate right now, mitch mcconnell, the senate majority leader is not good to let that happen, and they are concerned about what this deal might do. so what the resident needs is democrats and he needs to be able to convince them. there were two democrats there in oregon today on air force one and they are working very hard behind the scenes, and i can say unequivocally that this is what he is spending most of his time on. alix: how is he going to get the democratic votes if he is in a democrat -- apolitical cycle? -- apolitical cycle -- a political cycle? there were a lot of protesters out there right now. phil: if he is able to convince them across in order to raise standards internationally whether it is environmental, whether it is labor standards, it is actually real, how do you get democrats to trust even their own president on that the white house is surprised how difficult this process has been up until this point. alix: phil mattingly, thank you so much, and we do have breaking news on ubs. michael: -- julie: we were talking about this for quite some time, ubs is pressing to reach currency-rigging settlements. the fifth bank is a ubs according to one of these people, the other four is citigroup, jp morgan and others are pleading guilty to antitrust charges, all of this familiar to people in the matter. this is part of the justice department antitrust investigation to manipulate foreign exchange rates and that is where this could help shield ubs from antitrust charges, but the bank has still been exposed to fraud charges, all of this that is reported according to bloomberg news. alix: part of this really highlights the significance of getting a guilty verdict guilty plea, different from what we have seen in the past, difficult to get around that, and the implication is, how will the impact businesses in the u.s.? julie: it is a curious situation because you have so many of these big thanks doing it -- big banks doing it, so does it impact them individually if their competitors are also subjected to this? it is not entirely clear. alix: what will they have to do in order to not hurt businesses because you could order -- argue that the business -- argue that the justice department wants business to function in the market. julie: regulators don't want to put the banks that they are regulating out of business. alix: we are looking at citigroup and jp morgan perhaps pain one billion dollars, that is according to people familiar with the situation, thank you so much, julie hyman to at our breaking news desk, and we will have more on this, stay with us "street smart" will be right back. ♪ alix: we are continuing our coverage on the breaking news about ubs, julie hyman has more the breaking news desk. julie: again here, ubs is being added to the banks that are coming under scrutiny to the -- from the u.s. justice department to reach currency-rigging settlements that would include guilty pleas from five tanks before the previous report, the number was four, this is according to people who have knowledge of the situation -- five banks before the previous report, the number was four this is according to people who have knowledge of the situation. it looks like it ubs is warning that these charges because it is cooperating with authorities but the new part is that ubs is being added to all of this and that we could get news of this settlement on wednesday. alix: julie, thank you so much and joining me is keri geiger. does this guilty plea come with any teeth? keri: guilty pleas are tough for people to swallow because they have to get what is called a waiver to do a whole bunch of different businesses included -- including issuing different loans. we saw this last year and now we are going to potentially see five hanks including several u.s. banks pleading guilty. this is not a concern for the banks, but there is a question of among the marketers and the lawmakers, basically, have the guilty pleas lost their bite? alix: and the other cases that you brought up, there are workarounds, yes you can plead guilty, but, and that made it easier for them to operate in the u.s., for example. keri: it will be very interesting to see what the justice department comes out with, and we could see a settlement as early as wednesday, and what conditions are being built around this, and my guess is that they are doing everything that they can to make sure there is no interruption on way -- in any way, shape, or form. alix: we will continue to be asking those questions as we head towards wednesday, keri thank you so much on this potentially guilty verdict. moving towards the stunning result of the u.k., david cameron keeps the 5 -- keeps the prime minister job for another five years. francine joins us now from london, francine, thank you for joining us at this late hour what is next for cameron right now? francine: this is a tough job the slack that he has gotten from this, no one had expected him to get this, he has a very tough job ahead of him. he has to deal with the issue of asking for a referendum on whether the u.k. should stay within the eu, that means he is going to try to negotiate, and he also has a slim majority, and a lot of people in his party are euro skeptic. the scottish national party has basically wiped out all of scotland they want so much, and what they want to is to break away from the u.k., so i would call david cameron's job tough at the moment, and we will see over the next couple of weeks if the markets are realizing that. for a moment, they are moving forward because they don't have messy coalition talks. alix: the pound versus the dollar declined extremely low after the results, is this a fake out because of the conditions that you outlined? francine: i think you are right on the one hand, the conservatives are of course pro-business they don't want any kind of tax hike that would scare away any kind of the international companies based in the u.k., but you are right, i think what was priced in the market before we saw the move on sterling was messy and we were expecting the u.k. not to have a government for 2-3 weeks. since he got the outright majority, and it soothed the markets, we will see if it will continue on the non-volatility track. alix: francine, thank you so much for joining us from london. coming up next on "street smart ," the greek prime minister says there are no more first aid results for his country, calling on the eu for help. that is coming up next. ♪ ' stories we are watching after the closing bell. the justice department is seeking to reach guilty pleas of from five banks regarding currency-rigging, citibank, j.p. morgan, ubs, and others. the u.k. is loving the results u.k. ces -- ukcesetf is loving the election results, it is up. communications director is leaving facebook for twitter -- leaving her for facebook. and julie hyman wants to look at the notable movers on this rally day. julie: yes indeed, and i want to bring you up to speed on breaking news that happened in the last hour, and that was bloomberg news reporting that a visa was in talks to discuss buying a visa europe that could be up to the billion dollars that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. the initial public offering in the united states, has visa shares spiking on that and the stocks are going off on the not too hot not to cold jobs report, and crude oil is up, as well as southwestern energy, and each is up 5%, and monster beverages was the worst performer of stocks today, and it has issues with coca-cola, however as a result of that, had to terminate partnerships with others and that resulted in pushing down its numbers. alix: thank you. greece will be on the agenda on monday, that is when the european finance ministers meet -- reach an agreement on a bailout. they are calling a political courage, say there are no more technical reasons to hold this against his country. joining me now is axel, and what is the short-term risk in the market on greece right now? axel: the market has moved on, clearly if you want to talk about risk, they should get something done, the best side scenario is the own to get anything done, and suddenly they could also be german and become german in their conduct, and i don't think that is going to happen. the risk is very loaded -- fairly loaded, anything could happen. the rest of europe does not give concessions, and the imf is not going to give any money, so there are -- there is plenty of room for fireworks. alix: you made a great point about the imf there, display -- explained attention on how that plays out in talks on monday -- explain the attention on how that plays out in talks on monday -- explain the tension on how that plays out in talks on monday. axel: they might have to take a haircut, but as far as the market is concerned, these losses have been socialized, the government might have a gone its face -- might have egg on its face. alix: what part of that is also if we do see some kind of default, we will see banks all over the world while in to support any risk that comes out of that, is that playing into the market at all? axel: what needs to be supported? is it the greek depositors, the greek government? they are the ones pulling the plug, so to speak, and now the question is, does anybody have the derivative may be that explosives -- exposes them to radically? everybody has now had years to realize that this is risky, so they have had years to prepare for this, so as a result of this, clearly, there might be a pickup -- hiccup, but we know what banks of, they will provide liquidity if it is needed but that is exactly how the market is reacting, and every day the market trades, it cares less about greece. alix: how quickly can aid be released at some point? axel: we have seen in past crisis sees -- crises that things can move relatively quickly, in finland, the coalition partner were in favor of greece leaving, so there is a stumbling block, but we know how europe governs, they governed by crisis, but at the same time, greece has come to the point that you cannot work with them, and they have to just live with that and move on and greece has to move on, and they have to find a way to live it with the default, possibly outside of the euro, but if they do default and stay within the euro, it has to be painful enough that it is a deterrent for them to follow suit. alix: axel, it is always great to get your invest -- your perspective. coming up, it is a big week for tech we have ipos and more coming up next. ♪ alix: this is "street smart" i'm alix steel, a huge week for tech, uber is making a play for no caps on unit -- play for nokia's unit and fitbit is vying for an ipo. let's start with fitbit, guys, it announced plans to go public. why now? guest: they are trying to cash out, this is a straight cash out ipo, that is not going towards r&d, they want to get out before apple releases its next earnings report, which is going to show that apple has sold a hell of a lot of watches. they want to show that it is a complementary product that means both can exist. somebody wants out now. alix: it wants out, but if the was to be something. paul, can they be bought at the end of the day? paul: they just want to take advantage of wearables in general. obviously, the market was waiting for apple to come in with its watch, but we are seeing a more people with these fitness devices on their wrist you could certainly it was one of the first mover advantage -- that they had the first mover advantage, but there is some timing issues with apple, but they want to get out now. leigh: the revenue numbers were really great. alix: they are profitable. leigh: this was very surprising but that is in an environment where they had basically no real competitors. alix: let's go to uber here, they want to make a move for no p.m. -- a move for nokia's map unit. leigh: they cannot be anchored to the google maps going forward, and supposedly, when you look at it here, it is the best kind of road mapping system that is out there, and even some people say better than google's. if uber is going to do this thing, there is no way they can be connected to uber mavs -- google maps so far. paul: they are using a chinese search engine, so it there is an extraordinarily well funded there, so i suspect over is going to have a tough time outbidding them, so there is a question of how strategic it is if you think the driverless car is something in the foreseeable future, then maybe they will step up, but i suspect they will be outbid hereby this much more deep-pocketed bitter. -- bidder. alix: do you think so? leigh: i think they've got the stock and they got the cash, but the bigger issue is, i think this is going to be a misadventure for uber, because this is really hard stuff. apple try to build maps, they couldn't, they failed miserably and google got so much behind it, they put so much time and effort into this, i think it is hard to believe that uber is going to be able to pull off and take this asset and make it what it needs to be and seriously invest in that. alix: talk about changing assets, we have spotted by trying to enter the web video business according to "the wall street journal." they're going to take on powerhouses like youtube and facebook. why is this so important for spotify to do right now, leigh:? leigh: they have a $4 billion market cap, and spotify is trading over 8 billion now -- $8 billion now. it is a really expensive company, they have to spread their fingers out into all sorts of other stuff. alix: but a percent of their revenue already goes to warranty -- 8% of the revenue already goes to warranties. paul: when you look at the internet, one of the fastest growing vertical is online and mobile, so they feel like they have to be there and from an advertising perspective, there is only so much you can do with music and audio, i think they are looking for something that can drive engagement but the engagement is not where they want it to be. when you layer video onto user experience, that is where they believe they can really drive the advertising growth. alix: we will see where that goes, and trending -- and turning to china now, alibaba is looking to expand into india. they want to buy a 20% stake in a smartphone maker, that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. why are we seeing alibaba go everywhere? leigh: they trade at very high multiples for a conglomerate, and if they don't continue to invest india is going to be a place of massive growth here. i don't think hardware is going to be something a makes a ton of money, but i think alibaba is expanding all over the place. alix: paul, does that say something bad about chinese goods? paul: i think alibaba is in a very good condition, because they are leveraging consumerization why are they making some of these bets? very simple, they can afford. they have a huge warchest, and this is something they said they were going to do on the ipo, and if you think about it, they believe that they understand it they think india's market is similar to the chinese market mobile will drive internet consumption without a doubt within india and other developing markets. alix: 72 billion dollars -- $76 billion, that is what alibaba made last year. they no longer can buy stakes to find growth, they no longer can make acquisitions to find that kind of a criminal growth. -- incremental growth. leigh: i don't think the large numbers really plays in, once you spread your fingers out into all of those different businesses that they are trying to go for, especially in india, then i totally agree. indians who access the internet are doing it just by their phones, and they really understand how to drive that user engagement, and all of the purchasing behavior on the web through mobile, so i think it is going to be -- i think is going to be smart for them. alix: guys, thank you so much, really interesting stuff, leigh: and paul. details on monsanto's bid for syngenta. but the dollar could derail the deal. that is up, next. ♪ alix: it would be the biggest ever acquisition of a european company by an american rival. monsanto offering to buy swiss-based syngenta for $45 million, but the company has rejected the -- 45 billion dollars, but the company has rejected the deal for now. what would it take to get the deal done? >> obviously the initial offer was about $45 billion, they said it was not enough, but they no is a very soft no they'll at the door open, and i think the expectation is they want monsanto to come back with a different price, and how much to take to get it done? it depends on how they structure it. if we saw what we saw last year they could get big savings and a lot about what they offered, and some analysts suggesting it would take about 500 and share which would be very hefty. alix: do i are the -- do either of these companies expect the deal if this can happen? >> monsanto is the jump for them, they have tried to do this with the company before, about a year ago, there was going to be a conversion, but there is not another way to get this kind of scale -- sale in one deal. it would be more costly and more of a struggle, but for syngenta yes, there is other stuff they could do, they could join some thing else liquid dow -- like with dow or someone else, but i think that would probably the less likely at this stage, but it remains possible. alix: when i read about this, there were antitrust issues in many different parts of the world, but is that really the biggest issue when it comes to syngenta? >> syngenta has said publicly today that they are worried about antitrust issues. there is some overlap. they both have huge businesses, but they are willing to sell the business very quickly to achieve this deal and the real execution is not antitrust, it is a bit more deeper than that monsanto is a really despise company and we have seen this before where companies that aren't liked and where government doesn't necessarily like them or when people don't like them and farmers as well really don't like them, governments may step in. even though the antitrust may be possible to get around, there are other things which are marked -- sure much hearted -- which are much harder to predict . and there was a harris poll published on this earlier this year, monsanto was the fourth most hated company in the u.s.. alix: fourth most hated company in the u.s.? oh my goodness. what is the impact of the stronger dollar that could have on the ability of monsanto to make the deal? >> we could see them sort of coming and use that and syngenta already said that one of the reasons they are undervalued is because the dollar is weak and obviously you have to factor in commodities and commodity prices have been down, which could affect the sale. alix: ed, thank you so much, and hammond talking about syngenta and the sale with monsanto. the close is coming up next. ♪ alix: welcome to our viewers around the world you are watching bloomberg television, i am alix steel, and this is "street smart," stocks are rallying and having the best rally since february. and stocks rise after jobs data shows that jobs are up, and let's get right to julie hyman at the breaking news desk. julie: yes indeed, this rally on the backup that jobs report where the dow and the s&p are having a rest day, not just their best today rally, -- best day, not just their best today rally -- two day rally but best one-day rally, and in view of traders was not too hot and not too cold as far as the jobs report, so that gave the vent some leeway. as you saw, the dow went up this morning when the report went out. in terms of the groups that did the best energy, health care, materials, but all of the jobs in the s&p 500 were higher, but if you look at this, it is a mix of defensive and cyclical groups and take a look at yields, that was key to the story today. as people try to parse the report and read exactly what it meant, initially when the first numbers came out at 8:30, we saw a bump in yields and it looked like the numbers were not as bad as some of the worst estimates had predicted, but that it started to go down as people look at the month revision for example. the dollar didn't find direction, even through the entire session, and this is the dollar versus a basket of currencies, but as you can see here as we close out the day, up just a 10th of 1%, and there it never really did find that decisive direction following the jobs report. alix: all right, thank you so much, julie, and i am blind -- i'm joined by my guests is this it, are we going to see a hike in december or september or next year? guest: we will probably see a hike sometime this year, not because it could happen, not being cause -- not because the fed wants to tighten. having said that, this rally is really about a relief rally from the hammering that we have received in europe over the last two weeks. it was really a relief that the deflationary pressures haven't fully abated or inflation is not going to come back and just shoot to the moon anytime soon so i think the markets are relieved that it will be the same thing over the next few months. alix: do you agree? >> exactly, this is one of those things where it is friday, things were so bad let trade up and get out of here. the next data point that comes out, it will be in the fed movie back or the fed moving forward it really does not matter. what krishna said it is not about the fed raising rates, if the fed raises rates, it is because they are out of ammunition. they want to get rates up because zero is not the appropriate level for an economy growing with 5.4% unemployment. alix: we are nearing the closing bell, and there is the closing bell we are looking at the dow closing up 255 points, and the major averages posting their best two day rally since february and pretty much the best day for smp, ending up 27 points, and a pretty extreme rally that we are seeing and a pretty consistent rally holding onto the highs of the session. major averages jumping 1%. for the big movers, let's go to julie hyman at the breaking news desk. julie: a fun one for you, when it started trading for the first time ever, bojangles, the southern chain that sells fried chicken and biscuits. all this talk about how the chip will they is happening -- the chipotle-fication is happening. we saw action in chipmakers that gives it room to miss estimates, second-quarter sales in particular. it has been hurt by the slump in easy demand. it is the largest maker of chips used in computer graphics cards. microchip doing very well. first of all, coming up with earnings that beat -- be estimate. -- that beat estimates. and finally, we wanted to do quick check on yelp one day after we reported that the company had hired goldman sachs to see essential -- seek potential buyers. the stock surged up yesterday and was up another 6% today. it looks like investors are looking for more specific news on the yelp front in terms of who might be the buyer. alix: julie, thank you so much. joining me, michael mckee. and we got michael reagan. and officer krishna my money. -- krishna mamamni. let's take a little deeper. average hourly earnings, not as strong. temporary hiring not a strong system manufacturing slowing down, all showing signs of weakness. -- temporary hiring not as strong. manufacturing slowing down, and all are showing signs of weakness. when will bad news be bad news? michael r.: i will add to the bad news. the s&p got within three of it closing record. r.: i willa close about a puppy -- a couple points below it. it is clear that whatever you believe of technical analysis and chart reading, that is resistance right there. we have not broken out of his range at that point. and there is a big gap between that and the previous one and there is -- encouragement from the job report. krishna, i'm curious if you have any thoughts on that. krishna: it's a bit of a sticky record however if we see meaningful recovery in the economy, we get to the 2% or 3% level that everyone is looking for, i think. have more to grow and they have more room to grow because the rates are so low. it is the best of a lot of bad things, i suppose. michael m: we haven't broken out of the range in the economy. earnings, better than expected but not good. it is the same story in the economy as it is for the markets right now. alix: another big story, investors focusing on the global bond selloff. one investor saying it is a black swan event. is it safe to buy? maybe not yet. socgen writes "we continue believing there is a risk to the selloff of the data risking upside surprises. an analysis of his struggle treasurer reaction to payrolls and retail sales shows that the selloff might have some room to run." what do you think about that? michael r: we will see a fairly soon. -- michael m: we will see if fairly soon. the interesting thing is, they won't buy anything with a yield below 20 negative basis point. at the yield come up and give them more to buy they can move up on the curve. it pushes yields down farther. you will see it level off a little bit but not that much more in europe. but the way the europeans are influencing the u.s. bond market, we have a natural cap there as well. krishna: let me make a prediction. i don't think rates are going up meaningfully from this point. we saw a significant fleshing out of positions yesterday and at the end of the day if the data is as soft as it seems everywhere, they likelihood -- the likelihood that we see significant increase in yield in a near-term is pretty low. you have -- when you have bond moving the essentially in five or six hours, that is a sign a capitulation to stop michael r: it is interesting how many chase that rally in bonds. not only that, but in the week euro, too. the trend is amazing. alix: one trend if we gone monday, could be greece. in a very crucial week we have finance ministers meeting in brussels with a deadline for athens to fall in line with creditors yet again. krishna, from where you sit, do you care? krishna: i don't care that much because i think the day it will get resolved one way or another. the mean the fireworks next week and you probably will seize thing. -- that doesn't mean you won't see fireworks next week and you probably will see something. but that does not mean a change in meaningful rate him if you see concern -- meaningful rate. if you see concern from some people, that might negative. michael m: with greece, they cannot pay back their creditors. we are getting in the final crunch time for them. alix: is there a d-day for them? michael m: the third weekend in may is when they a lot. and in the second week of june. those are time frames to look at. as we get closer, people will start to price that in. as krishna said, it is probably not a huge event for the market, but it will increase volatility. that is another trait. krishna: yes, it will get another opportunity to buy the market. alix: and speaking of volatility, the crisis in europe is slamming the biggest hedge funds. blue crest capital has been asked to pull more than half of its assets from its oldest hedge funds. that is, according to persons with knowledge of the matter. if you are seeing that kind of redemption, where is he going -- is it going? krishna: i think the moneys that are being pulled are being pulled because the performance has not been in line with what expectations were. the savings rate is increasing. people are saving more money and putting it in the money market -- on market. the flows are still very much in a fixed-income market on a global basis. alix: what we position for here in the global market versus the u.s. michael r: we are poised for a ripple effect when there is turbulence like that. it can make you scratch her head over a bad -- scratch your head over a bad day in the market. it helps that these trends are fleshed out and that anyone who is getting killed because they followed the momentum into -- momentum too long is probably being washed out. alix: a big week for wall street . on saturday chinese consumer prices. on monday, the eu finance ministers discuss greece. earnings from softbank. tuesday, we'll hear from williams. and friday, u.s. industrial production and consumer sentiment. mike mckee, what is the opportunity for williams to speak next week and how he can take the data and walk it forward from the job market? michael m: he cannot really because at this point, janet yellen is who matters along with fisher and others. it is the core three that will decide where things go. i will go on record saying that retail sales, you could do this show on wednesday and talk about -- is the market moving the fed forward or backward depending on where that comes in, because people will be debating. it is a game we will play until september, probably. alix: until he actually do something. michael m: yes. krishna: and i think over the next few weeks and months they will still be talking the same game, which is they will raise rates and our data dependent but they will be raising rates at some point. alix: thank you so much, a great conversation. coming up, bridging the skills gap between what colleges teacher and what -- teach you and what employers actually need. we will hear about a program that is preparing students for the jobs in the tech sector. plus, a bank is walking a fine line on monetary policy. more after the break. ♪ alix: this is "street smart" and i'm alix steel. the u.s. justice department is reaching currency settlement by next wednesday that will include guilty pleas from five bank, ubs, citigroup, jpmorgan, barclays and rbs. leucadia is saying it may triple its money in the bailout of online currency trading index cm, because a rescue fund is now valued at $947 million. this is according to regulatory filings on leucadia. and the world's oldest bank looking at profit in the first quarter after a lost the year earlier. but profitably targets are delayed until 2018. beijing morning it will walk a fine line before it takes another step on easing. the central bank reported overall trade with the world slumped 11% in april. how can china balance with one foot on the accelerator and the other on the brakes? joining me an analyst at will crest asset management. you put money into china, right? is it fundamental growth or pboc? guest: our view is that you have a real shift, china is changing gears. it is moving from an investment and export oriented economy to a consumption oriented economy. that will be a bumpy path, but there will be winners and losers and the key thing will be to identify who will win will. alix: from where you sit, who are the winners and losers? this shift has limited tools at some point. guest: when you look at it, it is kind of the old-school aoe's. a lot of these sectors are doing very well and the tech sector for example those are not really exciting stories when it comes to innovation and new business creation. i think patrick is quite right that there will be a bumpy transition and back to the theme of the opening, pboc have to step in sooner or later to smooth things out. that is really their role at some point. they are trying to step back and not joined the qe club, but sooner or later i think they will have to as patrick said, to smooth things over. alix: how can that actually help? there are fundamental issues, my command command the real estate sector is oversaturated. -- fundamental issues like real estate that is over saturated. patrick: all of this easing will cause more overinvestment. it will not going to consumption, but investment. and it will put more deflationary pressure on the economy because you get overcapacity. the way they break that cycle is simply -- is not simply through easing or tightening, but they need reform. alix: are they going to get that? william: yes, i think they are struggling with how to get there, because it involves consolidations, old capacity being shuttered, and people being put out of work, and those things are not very palpable -- popular in beijing, or ever. alix: one of the main issues for china is getting its currency in the spr that, being highlighted as one of the top currencies in the world. to do that you cannot be seen to have massive depreciation. that limits what the central bank can do and it puts pressure on beijing to force stimulus measures to cap traffic. william: depreciation wouldn't help too much. more would come from interest rate that. maybe we'll get one on sunday for cap i hopeful -- on sunday i hope. in our view, the currency remains overvalued to there is room for it to fall. intervention has helped to prop it up, much to the dissatisfaction of people in washington. currency is not a big sword for the rest of the year. i think it's on what other monetary tools they use to prop up growth and to transition. alix: yesterday, one company said they were turning bearish on china for the first time in several years. what do you think? patrick: i think there is a big disconnect between what is going on the chinese economy and what is going on in the real economy. what these never show is a steep falloff in chinese commodity demand, which is consistent with a big falloff in construction and capex in china. there is a big disconnect between were that is going and where the stock market is going. that was clear today, because last night, the chinese stock market went up on the news of these bad traits. alix: yeah why? patrick: because of the hope of stimulus and that it will solve everything, but i don't think that is accurate. alix: part of the reason imports were down was the fact that commodities had fallen, like iron ore. but the value of the commodity was actually higher. patrick: with i am overcome it flat. with a lot of things like copper and aluminum, it was down. alix: oil patrick:? oil was up -- oil? patrick: oil was up, but that is probably due to supply and demand. william: i would agree with that. beijing is rather schizophrenic at this point. there are those saying we have to pump more money into infrastructure and building bridges in western china. what that does on the industrial site is -- industrial side is using the analogy of producing on a string. as bresky falling, you have to produce more and more in real terms. that is why people are looking at administrative policy to support small businesses. that is were those voices, we think, could risk the crowded out by the more traditional view of stepping on the gas pedal use infrastructure and capital spending will recant, and we will regroup later. alix: all right, guys, thank you so much. coming up, who needs a four-year college education when you can learn real-world skills in a -- in an immersive eight to 12 weeks program? that is coming up next. ♪ alix: from social media to the cloud, there's a growing demand for tech jobs and some experts say there is a skilled gap between what colleges teach and what employers actually need. specialized schools are trying to bridge that gap, teaching people the right skills through short-term immersive programs. joining me now is general assembly founder brad hargraves. what kind of programs are these and what do they wind up doing for me? brad: these are 8-12 week programs at teach fundamental skills in design. these are skills that have a lot of demand in the job market. these involve mobile app development, product management, topics that people don't typically majoring in college, but there are a lot of jobs with these roles. are these minimum wage jobs -- alix: are these minimum wage jobs in the tech world, or higher? brad: these are starting at $65,000 per year, and 90% of students get jobs within a year of graduating. and we are able to do an intensive program and it 12 weeks full-time and the demand for these roles is very high on the other end. alix: who are the students? brad: they are people who typically have already gone through college, so they are not choosing to go to college instead of general assembly, but maybe they are choosing general assembly instead of grad school for instance. law school applications have dropped him past two years. we can that are generalist ugly and progress like some of that cap. -- we consider general assembly and programs like has be filling some of that gap. alix: and how have you benefited? brad: i was -- i benefited from a liberal arts education and the topics they came from that, but i'm of my peers who were looking for roles, looking for a leg up in their career trajectory. these are people who may be left college during the last recession and are saying how do i get on a trajectory that will make me happy? alix: brad, thank you for sticking with me. lots more to talk about. we will talk about twitter's acquisition strategy. ♪ just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business. alix: stocks are rallying today, pushing down the dow and the s&p -- pushing the dow and the s&p into positive territory for the week. driving is julie hyman for one of the winners and losers. julie: let's start with the winner, and a winner in large part due to visa. the dow jones industrial average is up about 6% on the week. in today's session, of about 4% and that is after bloomberg news reported that the company is said to be in talks with visa europe, it former subsidiary. the two split in 2007 ahead of visas ipo. on the downside, the biggest loser in the s&p 500 as well as an aspect for that matter, greenmount. the company -- green mountain. the company cut its forecast. it was heard by the sales of the second-generation curated system. it's not -- keurig system. it's not selling as well as they hoped. the dow is doing pretty well of 9/10 of a percent and the s&p in his best week since the week before last, up 0.4%. alix: here are the stories we are watching. the set -- a visa is in talks with visa europe for $20 billion. shares of visa rising on the news. and there's a report that over once to buy --uber once to buy gnocchi is digital mapping business. -- wants to buy nokia's mapping service. uber is competing with other carmakers like audi, bmw and mercedes-benz. rachel horowitz is leaving the microblogging site to go to facebook. were with confirmed then move on her facebook page. the battle for content is on. spotify is jumping into the online video business. the company follows other social media giants trying to buy a original content. can we put it price tag on this type of content? joining me from the content site is the ceo of mike, a media startup that twitter had an interest in buying. and from the vc side, brad hargraves founder of general assembly. they sustained with us, brad. let's start with mike. what do you guys do? chris: we have editorials, and the team that focuses content on smart young people. we are hoping to build the next they media company for this generation. alix: we had a report that the twitter was interested in buying you guys from us $90 million but you turned them down. what price you think you would be worth? chris: we've had conversations with a lot of people and i cannot comment on any conversation specifically, but at this point, our generation is consuming content different me than any other previous generation. this is a very big opportunity -- differently than any other previous generation. it's a very big opportunity. we do not know what the price tag will be, but we know is going to be a very exciting company in the long run. alix: part of that is twitter's acquisition strategy. sarah frier is joining us from dan francis go to give us an overview of what twitter hopes to accomplish -- from san francisco to give us an overview of what twitter hopes to consult with this kind of content. sara: twitter is hoping for upstart companies that are ecosystems in their own right. fine, for tebow, they acquired very on. periscope -- vine for example, they acquired very on. and periscope as well. they integrate with twitter just enough to fit into the portfolio. alix: that raises the question edit content is so important, brad, how do you value companies like .mic or periscope? brad: from our perspective, we are looking at great consumer brands that are built by entrepreneurs who understand the key metrics. we are looking to understand what the metrics and goals are that the entrepreneur is going for and how we measure those. we look at the key metrics and say, how do those fit into the broader economic picture? alix: i should point out that your vc firm has invested in pot bellies, which we can all relate to, because it is yummy. chris, how do you wind up delivering profits to your investors while the competition is getting increasingly crowded? chris: the interesting thing happening in media today is you are seeing the value of brands increasing for the first time in over 10 years. in the last 10 years, you have seen digital media commoditize and see things for the first time in the eyes of google. and i not twitter, snapchat, -- now you have twitter, snapchat chandler, -- similar, and they are all competing and the way you will see the winner is through content. it's the first time you seen that right really since the move to digital. you could see very valuable digital first premium brands. it will take time to play out. but as you have seen from the big media companies that exist today, content is king. when you have the best content those are big profit. alix: you are saying they will be worth a lot more than $90 million. chris: we will see. alix: thanks for joining us. coming up next will the nfl suspends tom brady? ♪ alix: this is "street smart" and i'm alix steel. an nfl investigation into differing late -- the fate -- deflategate showed that tom brady probably knew that the balls were being deflated. >> our owner commented on it yesterday and it's only been 30 hours, so i have not had much time to digest it. but when i do, i will be sure to let you know how i feel about it. and everybody else. [applause] alix: brady could end up getting suspended and the patriots may face a huge fine. do these revelations paint the legacy of tom -- taint the legacy of tom brady? joining me dj, you played against brady. what is your take on his legacy? dj: he's a great player. he has the championships and the rings to prove it. his record also proves it. i honestly don't think his legacy will be tarnished. there will be an asterisk next to it. but i think he will still go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the nfl. alix: scott, should brady be suspended? that is a pretty big black eye. scott rolen my guess is that he will be. -- scott: i guess is that he will be. if you read the report, and i did, it's pretty obvious that paul weiss feels he knew what was going on. if you did then there is only one logical conclusion, that he orchestrated it. of these guys would never mess with the football to tom brady -- the football that tom brady uses. it will have a stain on his career. the fact remains, though, they won the game by a wide margin. nobody messed with the balls before the super bowl. they won the game. alix: why would you want to do something like that? that is the question, dj. how does that happen? dj: i kind of disagree. even if he did know what's going on, as a football player, we are not taking air out of anything or adjusting our uniforms or anything like that. that is usually done by a trainer or someone else. again, unless they can really prove tom brady was the one that took the air out of it, i don't think he should be punished. because he knew what was happening? that is not room to be punished as well. that is like if i know somehow -- i'm on a team and we illegally got another teams playbook and i know what their place are going to be. who am i to go and basically be a traitor on my other guys and tell what happened? alix: dj, does that mean that brady should be totally exonerated? why would anybody do this without the explicit or implicit urging of a quarterback? dj: unless he's the one that personally took the air out of the balls, he should be excluded. scott: we know that roger goodell has made his bones lately on discipline. what do you think of the report that point out that tom brady did not cooperate fully with the investigation? this is where i think they may come down hard, that he would not provide his phone records and tasks messages -- text messages. and we all know that the nfl and their employees to cooperate fully. this is where roger goodell could come down hardest, that tom brady did not cooperate fully with the investigation. dj: if so, that is his private business. i don't feel like he should have to give out his text message and personal business to the nfl. you play me to -- you pay me to play football. you don't pay me to be in my personal life or in my conversations. to that end, i think he has every right to withhold the cell phone, because who knows what is in a cell phone besides talking to the coach or other players? there might be things he doesn't want the commissioner or anybody to know. scott: these are the things that we heard addressed in the report. the lawyers say they asked for a narrow scope, anything that dealt with footballs or air pressure. these kinds of requests do not hold up, but they are the ones that we are getting over and over again. the fact is, tom brady did not cooperate fully. it did not look good and yet a six-month gap where he did not talk to these guys and suddenly when the problem occurred, he's got daily action -- interaction with the ball boy. it looks terrible for tom. it's not a burden of proof beyond a reasonable doubt. it's not even a per ponderings of evidence. the words were children -- were chosen carefully. alix: dj, from your expertise, what do you think would be an appropriate deterrent for players to stay focused, not get involved in these things, and try to play by the rules? dj: i think they have to bring somebody in from outside the nfl that has nothing to gain from the winning or the outcome for the team. and then have been police the rules. they need to bring some of them out of the game that has nothing to gain from the super bowl. it will be hard to police it. every team is trying to get an edge. every team is trying to bend the rules. every team is trying to find a whole in the system -- a jhole in the system. everything is trying to do that. it just seems they a little better at doing it then the other 31 teams -- than the other 31 teams. alix: dj, think you for joining us on this topic. before you go, what are you up to right now? dj: currently, and a free agent. i'm waiting for that phone call, but also preparing for life after football. i started a nonprofit. i have a clothing line. those things are keeping me busy. alix: dj, thank you for joining us on a topic for so and scott before i let you go, we heard today that espn will not renew bill since contract. he is one of the most well-known personalities in sports. why? scott: talk about free agency this is the free agency on the market now. he took too many shots at roger goodell. one, you get away with it. never too, you get a warning. three, you get fined. -- number two, you get a warning. three, you get fined. he was probably making $5 million a year and was probably asking for $7 million or $8 billion. he took one too many shots of robert turbin dell -- roger goodell. they put their foot down. alix: where will he go? scott: a married of option. he can create his own. he can go to fox google, youtube. he can write his own ticket but the question is, how much will he missed the platform of espn? alix: thank you so much. coming up, christie's sold over $300 million worth of art including a $600 million -- a $60 million van gogh. next week could be in the billions. i will cut you wide. ♪ -- i will tell you why. ♪ alix: $368 million, that was the amount are collectors paid 70 this week for -- art collectors paid sotheby's for pieces by picasso monet, and then go. this we could see a 67% increase from last year. what does that say about the growth of the art market? guests: there is a lot of growth in the art market. there was a lot of buying by chinese collectors. and as we will probably see next week, they are moving into masterpieces by roscoe, warhol, -- rothko and warhol. alix: talk about the numbers. katya: there is one estimated at $140 million. there's another that is estimated at $130 million. these are enormous numbers. alix: unbelievable. thank you so much. when we come back wine. ♪ alix: summer is upon us, and that means it's time to break out the rose. last month, summer in a bottle rose sold out in just under four weeks. can we expect another rose shortage westmark -- another rose shortage? guests: we always try to plan it so that we don't, but it's just going to happen. this year, some are not bottle got hit more than last year. we will run out by labor day, for sure. alix: how did this rose get to be so popular? you go to the store and you have a lot of choices. how did you make this the hot seller? joey: i'm blushing. we've had our time to grow it and understand the market. my dad was way ahead of the curve with rose. our first -- our first batch was 85 cases, and now we are up to more than 20,000 cases. it's a lifestyle brand. we have made the hamptons our thing. we feel we have defined what the hamptons is. our state is beautiful. we have preserved 150 acres of land agriculturally. you get there and you can smell the sunset, smell the beach down the road. we have one customer who works in finance. he sends us picture every year with his wife rate filled to the britain -- his wine fridge filter the brim with rose. he feels that march 1, and then they fill it up in the fall too, so they can always feel the hamptons. alix: how do you meet this crazy demand? joey: it's a challenge, but this year we are starting to make rose in argentina. we are launching in the beginning of july, our multi-blend. -- malbec blend. it's the first of its kind. we have one that is my personal favorite that is chardonnay based. and we have the table rose, which is our $18 that we sell out every year in new york city. we keep adding different products. we also have a fighter now -- a cider now that is rose colored. it does well as well. alix: does that mean it is a substitute for the rose when you cannot get it? joey: i love it. i tried it the other day and i loved it. it is not supposed to replace it, but to continue this summer craze. the summer in a bottle my friends are like, it is summer in a bottle. i kept saying, in such good phrase. how can we use it? and roman was like, let's put it on everything. it really is in all of our advertising. alix: you sell it in winter to question mark -- you sell it in winter as well russian mark -- as well? joey: we do. alix: that rested up for us. it was a pleasure to work with all of you. tune in monday. we have an amazing new slate of programming. have a great weekend. ♪ mark: i mark halperin. john: if you want to be part of the bill simmons anymore, you are too late. mark: love doing the show in film. liberty money, and something key foreman would be proud of. first, getting pumped up for the south carolina freedom summit. scott walker, marco rubio, rick perry, and donald trump. and more. mark,

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