Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20160613

Against the dollar on a vote to exit. And terror in florida. What impact will the deadliest mass shooting in American History have on u. S. And european politics . Morning; we are less than half an hour away from the european open. We know asia is having a horrible session, but europe had a pretty bad session friday, although it looks as if the theme will be carrying on in europe. This is the fair value calculation we had this morning. Euro stocks down by 1. 47 . London called lower by 1 . Down. Wn, dax matt, looks like german equities are going to feel its pretty hard this morning. Were off by 2. 5 on friday as well. Matt thats right. A continuing risk off theme. Where is that money going . Partly, it is flowing into currencies that are seen as safe havens, which includes the japanese yen. You can see we are down below yen, whichove on the is a big move, i remind everyone. Asia, equity markets continuing the downturn we saw in europe on friday, and the u. S. As well. But across asia, we are looking at 3 losses in japan, 1 on the mainland in china. Brent crude is down across the board. Well. T as a lot of commodities are feeling the heat, and although you see some gains in stocks. 0. 02 . This says unchanged, but it has been a real rundown for the german yield. Lets go to the first word with haidi lun. Haidi the fbi says the gunman who killed 50 people in a florida nightclub has spoken at bout the socalled Islamic State in the 911 call for the massacre. He was killed in a shootout with police. He was the u. S. Citizen, born in new york to afghan parents. It is the worst mass shooting in u. S. History, and president obama says it is an active hat f hate. It was more than a nightclub; it was a place of solidarity and empowerment, where people come together to raise awareness, to speak their minds, and advocate for their civil rights. This is a sobering reminder that attacks on any american, regardless of race, ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation, is an attack on all of us. Haidi the u. S. President ial candidates have been sparring over the orlando attacks; donald trump says it proves he was right on islamic extremism. Hillary clinton has called for tighter gun control. The u. K. Prime minister David Cameron says he is confident that the campaign to keep britain and the European Union is working. Thats the latest poll. 44 support for british remaining, 42 are backing a brexit. In contrast, another poll shows 43 wanting to leave with 42 happy to stay. If we vote to leave the European Union and the single market, that will have economic consequences. Of course there are the experts, the imf, the institute of fiscal studies, all saying our economy will be smaller, and therefore we would have less money to spend on public services. But i also think there is a deeply subconscious common sense here. In the single market, we get free access to 500 million consumers. That is crucial for our economy; its where half of what we sell goes. If we have less good access, which we would if we left, obviously that would impact our economy. German chancellor on merkel has called for Foreign Investors in china. Meeting with the premier at the start of a visit to beijing, she says they should be reliable and transparent, with a level playing field. But this is being overshadowed by angst in her home country about the bid for the german robot maker. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Stories on there bloomberg at top. Guy thank you very much. Lets show you whats been happening overnight in asia, we are still reacting to friday. Its more of an fx story. The Hong Kong Market extending losses, down by 2. 83 . China down by 2 . I think it is this big here you need to focus on, this move into the yen, this plus 1 trading. Its something you need to focus on, because that is a big risk off indicator, at large across all asset classes. We are very carefully whats happening with the german 10 year. Are we going to see it move negative today, tomorrow . This week looks like it will be a tense one. We will bring you the breaking news as soon as it comes. If you look at the trajectory it is moving in that direction. Lets welcome ben ritchie from Aberdeen Asset management. Good morning. Why risk off . We have polls tightening, big central banking coming up, but the last 24 hours a market trading have been very aggressively risk off. To get to a certain point in time where these things suddenly become realizations. We have got close enough to the brexit situation that the polls are ready to spur risk off activity. When you come there that and a line that with Monetary Policy, i think that is a cocktail that has the potential to make investors nervous. Matt where do investors obviously, we see investors continued to go into the yen. Can they keep doing that after the boj meeting . To you expect them to do something about it . I think its unlikely we will see Monetary Policy action on the back of investment flows related to brexit. Approach tojapanese Monetary Policy is driven much more by the domestic agenda, and i wouldnt expect external events to derail that in the near term. About howyou think you manage money in this environment, what are you doing . You are an Asset Management business. You have an awful lot of turbulence happening, but a lot of very big they could have longterm effects. We are trying to take the longterm view, and thats a difficult thing to do at times like this. But on the other hand, it makes life a little easier. If you are sitting there saying, lets take this to market, economies and stocks, it certainly makes you a little less worried about shortterm volatility. Guy but the shortterm effects are derived from longterm changes that we could be in asset class we could see in asset classes. These are longterm trends that are going to affect the markets. Absolutely. And that is why its about positioning yourself for what you expect to happen over the longer term. For example, with Monetary Policy, our view would be that overtime rates would move higher. Its not insightful, but its a good starting point. If you depend on sustaining lower rates, that wouldnt be something we would look at and say that is where we want to be. Its important to make those decisions before you get to the point where rates start to rise. Its important to take that view , that position yourself accordingly. Companies that are susceptible to significantly higher levels of Interest Rates guy you preposition yourself in the turbulence no, we would be cautious on investing on Companies Whose Business Models revolve around Interest Rates at the current low levels on a permanent basis. Say, itsit here and a good idea not to go for those companies, even though probably they would have prospered. Its important to move ahead of these events. Matt broadly, your longerterm view is risk off anyway, and that has positioned you nicely for the shortterm turbulence were seeing. Well, i think there is nothing to be said for that. We have been quite cautious, for example, on u. K. Domestic stocks. We have seen cyclicals in the u. K. Market do incredibly well over the past two or three years. Over recent times, we have seen some of that outperformance come back. That is not from us looking at the shortterm dynamics, thats us looking at a combination of fundamentals and valuation, and that is whats driving all our decisions. Guy stay with us. We will dig into the details of these events. That reggie from Aberdeen Asset management will be with us. Up next, with 10 days to go before the referendum, the bank of england is readying for turmoil. We will discuss the latest Brexit Debate next. Matt take a look here at what is now a calm a teacher of the brandenburg gate. Last night, this picture would have been absolutely packed, shoulder to shoulder, with german soccer fans. Right behind the gate, the road has been closed for germans to watch, in openair, all the games of the european championship. German futures down now, even though we won last night i say we but down 1. 6 , futures down across the board in europe and the u. S. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash with haidi lun. Haidi thanks. Man who killede 50 people in a florida nightclub has spoken about the socalled Islamic State in a 911 call before the massacre the 29yearold was killed in a shootout with police. He was a u. S. Citizen, born in new york to afghan parents. Is the worst mass shooting in u. S. History, and president obama says it is an act of hate that is being investigated as terrorism. Meanwhile, it has emerged that he worked for a British Security firm with clients in more than 100 countries. A group has shelved what might have been a billion dollar ipo for its hotel unit. In what has been the worlds biggest flirtation this year, it is being scrapped after investigations of slush funds in bribery, pushing the conglomerate deeper into crisis. Symantec is preparing to buy the Cyber Security company for 4. 65 billion. Expects net savings of 150 million per year. Will take over the combined corporation after the deal is done. And iran says its new Oil Contracts still needs revisions, but it is confident the deals will be signed soon. The company is hoping the new contracts will draw as much as 50 billion of or in investment each year from global oil companies. And that your Bloomberg Business flash. Guy thanks very much. The u. K. Prime minister David Cameron says he is confident the campaign to keep britain and the European Union is working. The latest polls say opinion is too close to call. A survey says 44 support remaining, with 42 backing the brexit. The pound has been coming under pressure as we approach. We are trading on the cable rate at 141. 78. I want to take it to the bloomberg and show you whats happening in onemonth risk reversal. Skew, and what this continues to signal is that people still believe the biggest move will be to the downside by quite significant margin. Logically you would buy downside protection. Publishedg survey we suggest you could see a move of 130, were we to see an exit vote. Lets bring in been ritchie from Aberdeen Asset management. The pound is getting pummeled. What does it do to your investments . Im not saying we stay there, but nevertheless, it would have a significant impact. Itfrom a u. K. Perspective, might be quite a surprise to find such positives. 70 , revenues coming from overseas, and portfolios might be higher. 10 support translation change would be quite positive. These are dramatic numbers for the u. K. Stock market; a match or they are taking into account the fact that the u. K. Market guy is that what we have seen the outperformance of the stocks . U. K. Stocks have been significant out performers, and now we are seeing a bounce back in the mining sector, and it has a meaningful impact, but nevertheless, they are doing fairly well. I think it is more the resources dynamic over recent months, but i do think if we were to see a brexit outcome occur, people were not necessarily taking in the currency factor to its full value. Matt i was talking to a group of british Retail Investors this morning, asking them if they are prepared for a brexit now, and if they would run for cover by buying the swiss franc. They said that ship has sailed. How much of this trait is already done . Isnt anyone whos worried about this already worry positioned . Yes. When you look at the price of buying insurance, it certainly seems to be but that doesnt mean the markets have moved. Outcome,see that youll probably see those levels move in terms of currencies, bonds, and equity markets to a degree. But yes, it is already pricing in a their degree of that. Guy but it would have a meaningful impact in big centralbank decisions around the world. We all got very tense with the fed. Central banks will look at the volatility and go, heres a good reason to do absolutely nothing, or maybe even expand qe programs or other asset purchases or you could see a the lighting of some of the 8 a delaying of some of the policies. One of the most interesting is what the ecb decides to do with it. Either way, in terms of the outcome, i think you need to be able to stimulate the european economy and it becomes more important, whether they vote to leave or to stay. Delivering a sustained recovery in the eurozone economy becomes even more important if we will see even greater political and economic tensions. I think the mental fault them. I wouldnt be surprised to see them continuing to do more. Us. ben, he will stay with ben ritchie. Were minutes away from the open. Look at thewill potential corporate movers in todays trading. The dax called lower this morning, and you can see futures trading 1. 5 . Matt it is 8 52, 7 52 in london. We want to check in on the market in asia. Big losses. Haidi lun is standing by. Haidi matt, we have just gone from bad to worse. As one analyst in tokyo securities put it, everyone is just really scared. There is too much uncertainty, and investors arent taking the plunge. This does seem to be what is playing out. You have this risk aversion, the yen is up, gold is up, sovereign is up oil down, emergingmarket currencies seeing a little bit of an impact across the region. Asnghai, noticeably, extended losses over the last half hour. Its down by 2. 8 , hong kong down by about the same. In terms of Chinese Companies in hong kong, a snapped the longest winning streak in nine years. Were really seeing quite a bit of repositioning ahead of the msci decision coming through tomorrow. They are expecting some profittaking pressure, so defensive positions when it comes to asian shares. Tokyo stocks are down by about 3. 5 at the close of the day, the lowest close since the start of april. This is a terrible start to the week. Not expecting much; some uncertainty from the boj, but certainly those brexit concerns are top of mind, even here in asia. Guy thank you very much. Haidi lun, running us through a difficult session over in asia. Over here in europe, we are looking at a negative start to the session. Looks like we will open a little higher, but still down. Key stocks you need to focus on are related to the weekends events in florida. Lets talk to caroline hyde. Caroline a difficult link to thee, but of course, employer of the man who was behind the shooting in orlando, the devastating shooting that killed some 50 and wounded 50, the largest mass shooting in the United States history. The employer of the 29yearold alleged to have been the person amind the shooting, i hearing calls of the stock could drop to the tune of 5 on of being tied up with such a person, who seems to have been investigated not once but twice by the fbi in links to islamic terrorists. It will potentially erode more of its value. And keep an eye on klm. This is a very volatile stock we could see it fall 1 or 2 because of the warning that they will be losing millions, 27 , more than 80 running on monday, that within the euro 2016, this is not a good time for your pilots to go striking. Air france could drop on the open amid the financial ramifications. Guy thank you very much. Caroline running is that the stocks that paint a broader picture. Looks like europe is going to open down by around 1. 2 . Asia has been softening, reacting to friday as much as monday. The open, next. Guy welcome. Im guy johnson at bloombergs European Headquarters in london, alongside matt miller in berlin. We are moments away from the start of european trading, an d matt has the morning brief. Matt the bojs brexit problem. Andyen surges, stocks sank, jgb yields hit fresh record lows as traders seek safety ahead of the u. K. Referendum. Will the bank of japan act this week . And with just 10 days to go until the vote, the pound continues to feel the pressure. Trainers in a Bloomberg Survey say it could hit 1. 30 on the vote to accept the eu. Antiterrorism florida. And terror in florida. Will the deadliest mass shooting in American History have on the u. S. And european political gain . Political scene . Guy european open underway. Lets take a look at the numbers the ftse 100 is opening, down. By chart is dropping, down 3 10 of 1 at the moment and continuing to fall. The market was called down around 1 , so expect more selling to come through. Thats the drop, now down by. 5 ,. 75 . Looks like let me show you some of the other european markets. 1 , the dax. Own by looks like we are a softer european open, as anticipated, down by around. 5 , with more softening. Lets see what else is going on. Lets lift the lid on european markets. Caroline hyde. Caroline thank you. Risk aversion is right across europe. Lost 200 billion euros over market valuations on the stoxx 600 last week today we wrote yet further this is the imap function with the individual industry groups. Consumer staples, one of the performers, down. The worst performer is energy, the Oil Trading Lower on the back of oil rigs coming back online in the United States. The banks are also off. Risk aversion is being filled with concerns the u. K. Pound being hit harder. Look at the trajectory over the ,ast month, currently trading nowhere near zero we know now see on the german 10 year debt. Will not of negative as we see a search for safety because we certainly are with u. K. Debt. Againlls are showing once that the leagues campaign seems to be ahead to the tune of 55 , which royal the market, roiled the market. That is pushing the british pound down 5 10 of 1 . This is the world currency rancorou, and it is ranker, and it is one of the worst performers today. Chinese data looks a little bit better than usual. Lets have a look at the stocks to watch. Very sadly, g4s with that tragic event, the shooting in orlando, the perpetrator suspected of killing 50 people was an employee. Its down 4. 5 . 1. 4 as theywn by say they will the hit the tune of millions, tens of millions of euros, which could be the cost as they see 27 of their pilots strike. 5 , astinto down by reported by the sunday times, that Goldman Sachs has been hired to help privatize its 8 billion pound operation. They want to buy the rest of their shares and get something new to help them do it. Guy thank you. Caroline running us through the european stocks that we need to focus on. The wei function is a good early indicator. A new record low in the gilt market. En richie is still with us. Ben, we look at another dismal european start the day. The euro stocks is down nearly 12 so far this year. When the european earnings come back . What will it take for people to get back on the front foot and how are you positioned . Earnings have been consistently disappointing. Over the last five or six years, estimates started at 10 per year positive and finished the and weght 5 and 15 have seen that year on year on year and 2016 does look like it will be different. World, isy, the real actually pretty tough not just in europe but around the world. Thats the kind of reality we have to face. I wonder when that pricing becomes fortuitous, then. Obviously the earnings picture is one part of it. When you think european stocks are priced right in order to take that kind of risk . I think you have to be quite selective. Thats really the angle. There are some companies that over the past five or six years have done incredibly well against that tough backdrop because they have pricing power, strong market position. Then there are those that havent. We have tried to focus our attention on those businesses with a stronger models and better longterm prospects. We have probably paid a little bit more than you might for the average market valuation, but the delivery has been consistently strong. I dont see anything out there that will make us change our mind. Matt i wonder if i look at givesa function, which you a great picture of earnings, and you can click into historical analyses and look at gross forecasts we dont see an expectation for sales to rise until 2017. Earnings are coming back up starting at the end of this year. How much to you by this or how much do you think analysts are going to pull their expectations down . Matt i think your letter comment is right. You are unlikely to see significant sales growth unless we see something sustainably higher with macroeconomic growth lets not forget that most European Countries are very international. They are dependent on revenues from the United States, from emerging markets. While the u. S. Has been reasonably resilient, when you look at whats been happening, especially in the goods sector, emerging markets have been tough places to do business. I dont think we will see any significant turnaround. It might be a more stable environment and we have seen, but it is certainly not improving. Guy why am i buying bonds over equities . Thats the big trade right now. Everyone is running into u. S. Treasuries. Yield is better than some, but not great. There are plenty of calls out there, and Goldman Sachs and everybody are fighting over this, whether or not the trend is lowering yields. Why do i want to pick up fixed income when in reality my investment return looks a little bit better for me yield point of view . I would say you wouldnt. I would say you could find good quality equities in the u. K. In europe which will deliver much better returns. But i think people today are taking a shortterm view and saying zero is a good outcome and by the way, a bunch of other people also say that and i may make some money and that is only have seen. Guy its not a recent story. The trend in Global Fixed Income has been for yields to amble lower. The trend has been in this but where you are prepared to accept zero, that is relatively new. Thats a pretty worrying situation to be in, where your preference for safety is so important that you have to take the return of zero in terms of the yield you get, with the implication that we may get more in the future because other people will be incredibly concerned about the outlook. Guy stay with us. Ben reggie will remain with us for a little while longer. We continue to watch whats happening with european equities. I think the european open is a little better than we are predicting. Anyway, its a huge week for Central Banks. The fed, the bank of england, the bank of japan, Swiss National bank, we will preview those decisions next. Guy welcome back. Lets have a quick check of where the european markets are right now. We knew we would see some softness; we saw what happened friday into the Asian Session overnight. Abouttalk a little bit whats happening in terms of the stocks to watch. Lets take you into the imac function and reposition this. Every major sector in negative territory. Its i. T. , financials, and Energy Taking the biggest hit. That is where we are seeing a significant rotations. Let me just maximize this some of the miners are on the front foot, but nevertheless on some ofng force, g4s, the security companies. Some of the Banking Sector also under pressure. That is where we are seeing the movers; lets find out what we need to know. Haidi lun has world news. Haidi . Thanks fbi says the gunman who killed 50 people in the florida nightclub has open about the socalled Islamic State and a 911 call before the massacre. He was killed in a shootout with he was the u. S. Citizen born in new york to afghan parents. Its the worst mass shooting in u. S. History and president obama says it is an act of hate being investigated as terrorism. Is more than a nightclub; it is a place of solidarity and empowerment, where people come together to raise awareness, to speak their minds, and advocate for the civil rights. This is a sobering reminder that attacks on many americans, regardless of race, ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation, is an attack on all of us. The u. S. President ial candidates have been sparring over the orlando attacks. Donald trump says it proves he was right on islamic extremism. Hillary clinton has called for tighter gun controls. The killer was armed with an Assault Rifle and the Democratic Candidates as weapons of war have no place on the streets. Trump says president obama should resign for refusing to use the words radical islam in his remarks. The u. K. Tenure bond yield has fallen to a record low as investors seek safety 10 days out from the eu referendum. The latest polls say opinion is too close to call, the David Cameron says he is confident for the campaign to remain in britain is working. Union,eave the european and leave the single market, will have economic consequences. Of course there are the experts, all saying the economy would be smaller and therefore we would have less money to spend on public services, but i also think theres a decrease of common sense and i want to set it out. Gethe single market, we free access for 500 million. Onsumers and that is crucial if we have less good access, which we would if we left, that could impact our economy. Haidi chinas economy steadied, rising 6 from a year earlier, matching estimates. Retail sales climbed to 10 . Fixed Asset Investment was 9. 6 in the first five months. Came in atorecasts the slowest pace since 2000. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Matt thanks. Its a big week for Central Banks. Wednesday we get the fed decision, that fund futures are pricing in a 0 chance of a hike, and a 2 chance of a cut. On thursday the bank of england in japan are on deck, and on friday, mario draghi speaks in munich. A lot going on. Ben richie from Aberdeen Asset management, we talked a little bit about this already, but at some point, doesnt the bank of japan have to do something as they currency continues to strengthen . I dont think any central bank will make policy on the back of something that could possibly happen. They will be looking to see what does happen and then will adjust their expectations. But i dont think you will see any Central Banks making policy on the back of the fact that polls are closed and brexit. Matt so thats what you think is driving the yen . I think we are seeing a search for safety around markets and are putting money to work, but i certainly wouldnt expect to see any policymakers pushed around by what are relatively shortterm fluctuations when you have clear longterm strategies by the bank of japan in the federal reserve. Guy the yen has been strengthening since the start of the year. You are talking about it being an area where they would act and we could go toward 100. The central bank has at every turn said we will do more. The central bank is in a position where many people are going to be saying, we will struggle at these kinds of levels. If they do decide to move ant be because theres possibility that they want to continue to weaken but again, they want to make sure that they are leading events rather than events leading them. Guy whats important to them . They are miles away from inflation targets, a currency appreciating and putting them away from hitting it. They have an economy that desperately needs growth. Have they reached the end of the road . If you are looking at the boj for help, are you going to get any . Are you going to feel that they have your back . There are plenty of central bank saying dont do this. This is an until emergency position, this isnt an emergency position. I think they put their cards on the table to some extent and have said they will support almost without limit. Whether the surprising to see them continue to do that . No, i dont think so. My point is about them looking to set up that they are in control. They are trying to do something relatively radical and you dont want to give markets guy i want to quickly ask you do you think Central Banks are in control of their own destiny right now . Probably not, but i think it is more a question of how they are perceived to be is more important. Wonder if the markets are really the most important mandate for the Central Banks are now. It seems like that for the said. For the fed. I think they are taking a broad look at whats going on in the wider economy, but i suspect they will be more concerned about the jobs numbers we saw a few weeks ago and about whats going on with the u. K. Something that may or may not happen. Basis, look on a broader they set up a pass that we saw in the wintertime. A step back from raising rates when they felt Global Markets were under pressure. Wouldnt be surprised to see them factored in this time around and i think that is clear with the markets. Guy the Senior Investment manager at aberdeen will stay with us. Up next, the bond market bubble. 60s, butit is the never before have traders pay so much for so little. More on that story, next. Guy welcome back. Lets get to our chart of the hour. Its a fascinating one with nejra cehic, here to tell us all about it. Never have so few pages so much for so little. Nejra we are speaking specifically about premiums. What this chart shows is that the treasury 10 year term premium has plunged to a record, 0. 47 for a 10 year. Reflects the extra compensation that investors demand to hold longer maturity debt instead of success of shortterm security. The term premium should normally be positive, and has been for almost all the past 50 years, but since the start of this year, it has turned into a discount. What this suggests is that Bond Investors cant see any risks on the horizon that would push yields higher. And whats interesting is that the same is true in japan and the u. K. , where it has also gone negative. 10 year yields fell to fresh record lows in japan in the u. K. Today. T ben, let me ask you even though in june we arent expecting any kind of rate rise from the fed, and maybe not in july anymore either, isnt the market trusting that the fed is going to raise rates at least one time this year . I think thats certainly the expectation. Lets see where we are in three weeks, or when some of these events settled down, and i think we will get back to talking about other issues other than brexit. Against that backdrop, with the Global Economy doing what it does, the u. S. Economy continuing to improve, we may get back to that discussion and that pass. Position wherea you could argue that if this starts to move, the market is so stretched to one side that the snap back could be quite painful. Big institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley where do you guys usit . Are we hire from where we are now in terms of yields, or do we peter around where we are at the moment . I guess thats the reason why theres a debate, because the outlook is uncertain. The economy and the direction of it is that a balancing point. That really depends on how you expect to see the next few job reports. Depending on how those things play out, you will see that tilt to either side. Guy everything prices off this, do you therefore see it being higher or lower . I am pricing in a sensible level of expectation, likely that the jobs outlook was something of a blip and we will see better data, and probably two increases for the rest of the year. Guy ok. Matt guys question is a good 1 could it be dangerous to be long bonds at this point . And youy everybody is, have big people the chief Investment Officer is saying bonds are in a bubble. I think bob said that it of all for a long time, and if you look at the chart that he had of earlier, we have seen a significant performance over the last 15 or 20 years and not necessarily in normal state of affairs. You could have said they were unsustainably low at 1. 5 and now they are at zero. From my perspective, that feels unsustainable. But in the shortterm, it needs to move lower. Luckily i dont have to worry about it. Guy thank you very much. Guy welcome back. You are watching on the move. How are things shaping up, or shaping down this morning . European equities softening up. When we first came in this morning, it looked like those numbers would be even softer. Downtheless, asia was pretty hard. The friday session in europe was very negative too. You saw 2 being knocked off many. Lets deal with the details and what is going on below the surface. Heres caroline hyde. Caroline thank you very much. We are seeing the worst day for since 2009. We are down some 5 . Worst performer on the stoxx 600. The Research Company seems to have employed the suspect, omar mateen, suspected of killing 50 in the largest mass shooting in u. S. History. That tragic event over the weekend in orlando. It is said this man was hired by since 2007. Some key questions to be asked. He had been investigated twice by the fbi in the past. Theyve put out a statement saying they are shocked and saddened by the event. Rand gold, this flight to safety, moving money into gold. 1. 5 higher is rand gold. Copper surges. Some of that chinese data out yesterday, earlier today, does seem to the posting some sort of stability for china. That does seem to be helping some of the metals. Lastly, hiscocks. Analyst review, the only european reinsurer to be rated outperform by credit suisse. They say it is agile, diversified, and can grow profit in the business. Investors seem to agree. Matt . Matt thanks very much, caroline. After that tragic event where 50 people were killed in a florida nightclub, the fbi says the gun aboutlled 911 and spoke Islamic State before the massacre. 29yearold omar mateen was killed in a shootout with police. He was a u. S. Citizen born in new york to afghan parents. It is the worst mass shooting in u. S. History and president obama says it is an act of hate being investigated as terrorism. President obama it is more than a nightclub. It is a place of solidarity and empowerment where people have come together to raise awareness, to speak their minds and advocate for their civil rights. This is a reminder that attacks on any american, regardless of race, ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation, is an attack on all of us. Guy joining us now is david lee, senior europe an nalyst at controlled risk. Weve seen a series of events like this. Paris, florida, there are similarities. How does this impact the european political debate, the u. S. Political debate . How are stories like this translating into the way people feel and are voting . If we look at the u. S. , but also over here in europe with the Brexit Debate, incidents like this tend to reinforce opinions people already have. Donald trumps reaction was accepting congratulations for being right. To first reaction wasnt talk about the incident itself. To an extent, that is mirrored over here, with people commenting that this is what immigration is going to get you. Guy you could argue that both ways, that this is an international phenomena that has very little to do with the u. K. , but on the other hand, you could argue that if you look at the migration story, people will point a finger and say it is just a heightened risk to worry about. In the next few days, do you think it will reinforce the argument that we should be worried about something happening . We have big football tournaments under way. The brexit vote is extremely close. An event like this could have huge implications. Absolutely. I think the concern in europe is the potential for Something Like this to then impact on a number of moments weve got coming up. Theres the brexit vote, the general election in spain coming in a couple weeks time, and they had the terrorist attack three days before a election in 2004. It is heightening the concern as much as dividing any material read through. Matt your first statement i thought was very interesting. Mass shootings, obviously weve had terrorist attacks here in brussels and in paris, but much more prevalent in the u. S. For someone to get hold of Assault Rifles and go out and shoot many people before they can be taken down by the police. The president obviously uses each shooting as an opportunity to push his legislation to abolish also rifles or ban Assault Rifles from the u. S. That doesnt sway voters, you are saying, because these incidents only cement the belief that people already had . David effectively. Certainly, what ive seen observing from europe in the u. S. Is that these things do change relatively few minds. With regards true to the terror attacks in paris and brussels as well. They tend to reinforce existing beliefs. I think we are all familiar enough to form an opinion. Theres not really a lot of mind changing. Guy lets focus on little bit on what happens more broadly in the brexit story and how it is beginning to move towards conclusions. The last two weeks tend to be where you reinforce a message, where you ram down everybodys throats what you want them to hear. Is that what were getting . David it is what we saw from cameron with his reinforcement of the economic message. The remain campaign is going to go strong on the economy. That own so far guy is that the message we are going to get from the Brexit Campaign as well . When you look at how they are positioning themselves right now, you would have thought this is the kind of moment they want to really get in and reinforce their message. It is now incredibly close and you wonder what the undecideds are going to be making their decisions on. The pollsters say a lot of people make their decisions on the last day. David i think the remain theaign is very clear that lastminute decisions, the ballot box switches, are going to think about the safety of the economy. They are going to be concerned about their jobs and mortgages. The leave campaign are banking i think on fear of those lastminute decisions keeping the immigration message going. That has been the profitable thing for them so far. Although some of the examples they can point to arent really accurate, it is having results. In referendum campaigns, it is all about winning. You dont get points for being accurate. Matt david, stay with us. Next lea, talking with us about the spanish showdown. Leaders of the country four biggest Political Parties prepare to go head to head again. Have you had enough of voting in spain . I think the people in madrid have. We are live from there, next. Matt this is on the move. Time matt miller in berlin. You are looking at the brandenburg gate. 9 42, 8 41 in london. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Heres haidi lun. Haidi the fbi says the gun man who killed 50 people in a florida nightclub has spoken about the socalled Islamic State on a 911 call before the massacre. Omar mateen was killed in a shootout with police. He was a u. S. Citizen born in new york to afghan parents. It is the worst mass shooting in u. S. History and president obama says it is being investigated as terrorism. G4s, awas employed by British Security firm. Group has shelled what would be an ipo for its hotel unit. It has been scrapped after widening investigations into allegations of slush funds and bribery pushing the south korean commemorative deeper into crisis. India may be prepared to let apple open Retail Stores in the country without making the manufacturer comment to a product resourcing rule. Apple would need to promise an unspecified amount of locally sourced production within a set time frame. That is according to a senior government official. India is set to become the worlds fastestgrowing smartphone market. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Matt . Matt thanks very much. The leaders of spains four biggest Political Parties go headtohead tonight. The country is headed for its second election in six months after Party Leaders failed to piece together a governing majority from the last one. Then joins us from madrid with more. What are you looking out for tonight and how many people are still really invested in this election rather than just fatigued by the whole thing . Ben there is an element of fatigue, but spain is in such an interesting and important of medical junction that a lot of people are still very engaged in this process. Political debate shows, political candidates debates, remained kind of box office in spain. What will be looking for is to see how the dynamic is between the different leaders. After this election, theres going to have to be negotiations, some kind of packed to get a government in this country. , for the personal dynamic between these four guys, and they are all on brees, is going to be important. Last time around, the socialist candidate went for the jugular in his attacks on Mariano Rajoy, questioning his integrity in harsh terms. Hes rolled back a bit whereas the promarket guy has been really stepping up his rhetoric. Iglesias,ave the guy, probably the main challenger at the moment in terms of potentially winning the most seats. With one i already looking at post election negotiations, we will be trying to gauge how the different leaders are trying to differentiate themselves while leaving open the door to potential negotiations. Guy aside from the personal attacks, and i get your point coalition,ng some has there been any significant shift in the policies . Has anything moved in terms of where these parties position themselves . Ben the policies are almost exactly where they were six months ago. Theyve perhaps the come more defined. The new parties were very much an unknown quantity six months ago. Theyve had a chance to display themselves. Theyve taken more than 100 seats in parliament. Weve seen them in action. We know about the way they operate. The underlying policy positions are essentially the same. What has changed is the voters familiarity with these characters. Guy great stuff. Ben sills joining us out of madrid. David lea is still with us. Which of those people can get together a former government in spain . Weve been without a government for a long time. How do you see it shaking out . David that is the big question. Likely thatoes look the results arent going to change much. Think Mariano Rajoy is probably going to remain the Number One Party and therefore in the strongest position. I think the others will be much more willing to deal with them despite the fact that theyve stepped up their rhetoric. I think they will be more willing to deal with them this time around. Some of the other parties may be prepared to stand aside and let some sort of government take office eventually. The party has been the main critic of Mariano Rajoys administration of what they say is corruption. Would they really be willing to deal with a government that they see having so much to do with bribery and politicians on the take and so much inefficiency . David i think everything is pretty much back on the table. They have said in the past that they are not keen on dealing rajoyhe pp and personally. s point ofm the pp oy as primeg raj minister is less important than getting in. If it comes down to, we will support the government, just not necessarily you matt could it be possible that rajoy is then out . David i think that is one of the possible scenarios. It will be tough for the pp to swallow given that theyve finished first in the elections, if indeed they do. I do think it is a scenario they are pretty familiar with and they thought about for a while. Always on the table. Is the read across into the rest of europes politics . Oldfashionede s, the broad centers are still struggling, still probably going to be the key figures in any government that gives form, but they are really struggling. The new parties either on the left or the right are really impacting now. Guy french politics . You go across the border into france, look at what is happening there, the reader across, what does it look like . David frances biggest insurance is the president ial system where it is a headtohead runoff. Pen doing very well, the socialist party not sure where it should be, perhaps shifting to the left again. Guy great to see you this morning. David lea. Up next, will central bankers sit on their hands or will we see precautionary action. We will look ahead to Monetary Policy decisions in the runup to the brexit vote. That is next. Matt welcome back to on the move. We are seeing markets down across the board, across the continent, and in london. The ftse down only 0. 3 , so really coming back from bigger losses at the open. The dax down more than 1 , the cac down about 0. 9 . The euro stoxx off about 1 . The bigger losses that we saw at the open seem to be firming up a bit as far as coming back. A big week for Central Banks. Wednesday, we get the fed decision. Fed futures pointing to a 0 chance of a rate hike but a 2 chance of a cut. On thursday, the bank of england and bank of japan are on deck. On friday, ecb president mario draghi is going to speak in germany. We are joined by bloomberg first word strategist richard jones. Very interesting to see that the fed, which had gotten such a hawkish tone, was turned around almost completely by the horrible jobs number we had. Is it really about the brexit uncertainty . Richard i think it plays a big role and i think youve had some members of the fomc saying it is something they are looking at. I think as we get closer to the date, it has become a big thing not only for the fed, the bank of england, but Central Banks all over the world. It could have some pretty big implications. That is either way. Guy whos got the biggest challenge . Richard i think the bank of japan does. For the bank of england, it is very much a digital event. I think that is the same for the snb who are meeting this week. The bank of japan, their own currency, the yen is rallying very strongly. That is something they dont want to see. Guy strongly enough to suggest action . Richard i dont think the base case for anybody is that they do something this week but the bank of japan is not averse to surprising investors. I wouldnt rule it out completely. Matt richard, you say you think the brexit vote could be interesting either way. That get a remain vote, is in what way is that interesting, asking as a journalist trying to fill up my day planner . Richard matt, i think the reason it is interesting is because theres a wide expectation that we are going to get a bounce in the pound, in risk sentiment in general. Relief there will be a rally. Im not sure it is going to be as strong as people are anticipating. I think you will have a little more uncertainty. Even if it is a remain vote that is very close, i think u. K. Assets will remain pressured. There will be some political uncertainty. If there is an exit vote, i think weve got a lot of volatility ahead. Guy you could see a 5 upside move and a big move down on the cable rate. Does that capture it . The pound is already sold off quite a lot. That 5 almost takes you back to where you started. Richard if you are an investor, you are looking at those riskreward relationships. Being long pound ahead of the vote, even if you anticipate, you are convinced it is a remain vote, still the riskreward is too much skewed to the downside. Guy thank you very much indeed. Stay with bloomberg for more on the brexit story. Were going to be talking to chancellor George Osborne on bloomberg at midday. Terror and in florida. The u. S. Mourns the deadliest shooting in u. S. History. Risk with 10 days to go. Sterling slumps. The 10year yield hit a record low. The rally asy says not over yet. Goldmans disagrees. Welcome to the pulse,