Action. We will get june jobs figures in less than 30 minutes. A strong report would give more ammunition to fed policymakers leaning toward raising Interest Rates in september. 233,000 jobs. There will not be any more negotiations from greece and a new poll says the vote is simply too close to call. 47 of greece leaning toward a yes vote. 43 favor no endorsement of the governmentss position. This morning, the greek finance minister spoke with guy johnson about the proposal. If we sign that agreement, in 12 months, we will be even closer to insolvency. I am not going to put this question to people. It is a senseless question. They agree greece will want us to stay in euro. How to achieve that. Stephanie he also said he will quit if voters do not support the government the governments position. We will speak with Erik Schatzker in athens in just a minute. Matt a takeover in the Health Insurance industry again. The price is six . 8 billion in cap. Medicaid, health matt, health net an apartment rents are already at a record high but keep getting higher. An average of more than 1100 or month according to the real estate data firm. Rentals have surged and they jump in apartment construction has not significantly increased vacancy. The u. S. Versus japan in the final. Last night in the final minutes of japan versus england, they try to clear desk clear the ball away inadvertently into their own goal. Stephanie that has got to hurt. Matt still awesome to watch. Japan wins semifinal games toone. A rematch of the World Cup Final from watcher years ago. This time, we will overcome. Stephanie we have got breaking news and washington, d. C. Vonnie we are getting tweets from the u. S. Navy earlier there was a shooter on the loose. The navy yard is on lockdown and shelter is in place there no incidents can be confirmed yet. We will be careful. This is Washington Navy yard. That killed 12 people. Stephanie thank you. Now we have got to get you into the top five things you need to be aware of as it relates to Global Markets this morning. Matt i will kick it off of number one. It is june jobs day today. Economists surveyed by bloomberg expect payrolls by 233,000. That would show continued strength really and possibly give more ammunition to the fed raise rates. Stephanie jenny does not look at the United States alone. Look to her side and see greece. Remember Christine Lagarde begging and pleading for help a few weeks ago. Janet yellen is not in an easy decision. Matt that is true. That is why she is paid the big bucks. Stephanie stephanie except she does not. Right now, the polls are simply too close to call. My partner, my man, Erik Schatzker, on the ground in athens. Defiance minister made headlines this morning. If he does not get support in the referendum, he is quitting . Erik he will be quitting. I want to begin my comments to you with a shout out to our colleague guy johnson for an unbelievable interview this morning. It was said among other things that he would sooner cut off his arm than to read negotiate renegotiate the debt without some kind of extension of maturities. Amazing stuff. I have tweeted it out and i urge everybody to go there and find the interview and watch it in its entirety. I will share a few other things he said. He said believe it or not, and you heard this as well, that greece will be in a stronger negotiating position come monday if greeks vote no in the referendum, supporting the government and rejecting the bailout. I want to death you to hear in his own words talking about the other big issue in the country the fact that capital controls are in place and people can only which raw 60 euros per day from the bank. This is a banking crisis. He based to differ. Have a look. This is not a banking crisis. The banks were perfectly capitalized and there is no problem with them. It is a political decision by the eurogroup. A way of effectively pushing us to attempt a nonviable agreement. This is a political crisis. Nothing to do it the banks. Erik the best way to summarize that is this is the position the government has taken all along. It is not our fault. It is the european fault. They with true liquidity assistance did i leave it to you to you. Stephanie great coverage. Just mentioned he wanted to give a shout out to guy johnson. How very beyonce. Eric has been crushing it all week. You better follow the sky on twitter and sunday night at 6 00 p. M. Get ready for next week with Bloombergs National coverage of the referendum results starting at 6 00 p. M. Eastern sunday night. Good morning. I am focused on the airline today. A u. S. Antitrust officials surprised investors today with an investigation in order to push up airfares. The Bloomberg Airlines index fell 2 yesterday on the news, dragging a year today. American united continental, delta, southwest, have all alleged to cooperate. Matt a comes at a time when prices are getting lower in seats get more abundant. It would seem as they are colluding, they are not doing a great job. Stephanie it does not mean you are good at it. I will give you number four. Government stepped again yet again. Shares fell most since 2011 after u. S. Government sued to block the company taking over general electrics appliance business. The big challenge is the acquisition on the ground that it would hurt consumers. We are seeing more and more of this government stepping in and representing consumers. If he spoke to companies and shareholders, they would say simply step out of this. We believe in free market. Matt antitrust has been an important part of the market and a difficult one to conclude you want to let businesses do it they like. On the other hand, you gain a monopoly position. If you only have a few companies doing things, you will see they will control prices and control the market. It is an important balance. Stephanie when you play monopoly, what do you pick . Matt the shoe. Number five, facebook which Share Companies that posted is on its site. 55 of revenues from as that appear, longtime videos, the sames what is youtube there. Trying to lower more ad dollars. That is interesting, i guess it makes perfect sense. I do not know why they would not otherwise, you would not want to put your videos on that site. Stephanie you think about the amount of video views, the content, you have got instagram in there as well. That is one entire umbrella matt i shared a video on facebook last weekend. Im not sure if i got revenue from that. Stephanie you are paid with joy. As we mentioned not all we are covering today, two jobs report will be announced in 19 minutes. The Bloomberg Intelligence chief u. S. Economist joins us now. My number is 269. Mass number is 290. What is yours . Matt he will not give us his number. I will. The economy as excel already moderately from a stumble in the first order. Consistent with that, it is improving p longterm averages about 225. A i expect a number closer to about 250 today. That will not be the big news. We could potentially see a drop in the employment rate. Consensus is looking for 5. 4 . The risk given the profile of leading labor indicators is that we could fall to 5. 3 and we could actually have a four handle on the Unemployment Rate. Matt i like that he is sticking his neck out with the number and them employment and employment. Richs point yesterday im sure you saw, was very interesting. Though this gets more ammunition for the fed to raise rates, and you might expect that as a conclusion, he said because of the Dollar Strength we have seen and could see with the rate raise, that they may balk. Very sensitive to the feedback. Depending on the situation with the greece and the europe, we see the dollar moving back towards parity or Something Like that, the fed will because ships not to move too quickly. The question will be what they are after. The fed now for 2015, they were split between one or two rate hikes here. We have two more jobs reports which will really dictate how quickly they move. Stephanie ok. So many competitions going around right now. I am in it. Matt this is the first time this week i wore a jacket that actually fits me. Stephanie you will have a whole new look. Maybe even a new head of hair. Giving us a sneak to get that jobs report coming in less than 20 minutes. Matt a north american employer marks exactly one year about how theyre printing their way to the top coming up next. Vonnie breaking news now. I want to take you to washington, d. C. , and the navy yard after it was reported decreased see had responded d. C. Police had responded. They did say no incident could be confirmed. We are getting tweets from the u. S. Navy as well also say nonsense and can be confirmed. The Washington Navy yard is on lockdown and shelter is in place. Matt thank you very much for that. Exactly one year since went public on the new york stock exchange. The company at operates in printing and Facility Solutions and now employs nearly 9000 people across north america. She joins us today on jobs that appeared welcome and congratulations on the anniversary. Lets talk first about how you came public. You had a merger, a spinoff, and an ipo almost exactly at the same time. Thank you for having us on our anniversary. It was a distribution company. We merged with unisource held with private equity and we went public immediately on the new york stock exchange. We go to be listed on the fortune 500 after this year. We did in a typical appeal. All the same day. Our stock started trading one year ago. Matt how is it going . Over the last year, it looks like not much changed in the stock. This year has been a little bit rough. Mary our shareholders were a little confused about what we were because we did a midyear transaction. Looking at the financials is interesting. We had a successful first year. You can imagine the integration of large companies. Three things we did well and will continue to add to the earning power of the company our teams came together and imagine, we were 15 year competitors number one and two. It came together and worked very well together and they help take care of our customers. We have met our shareholder commitments and actually our 2014 earnings were better than projected. Stephanie it cannot simply be they do not understand the way to transaction work. It was a year ago. Mary i think theyre waiting to see if we can deliver on their commitments. Stephanie when we think of Growth Industries and where the future is going, it does not feel like paper. Mary there is no doubt we have a challenge. Printing and writing is one of them. Today, that is about 55 of our revenue. We have a tremendous growth platform in our packaging business, 50 of our earnings. Matt since were on jobs day im guessing you are hiring in that business. Mary i was in our facility. We open up a brandnew facility this week 250,000 square foot facility. We actually transitioned from three other locations into one. We are increasing sales representation to grow in the market. Stephanie since you are moving from three other locations cause does that mean you are it really depends on our market and the ability to be successful in the market. The job numbers are interesting but they do not tell everything. I know there is a high expectation of better jobs performance. I believe and we have seen it with our customers, people are still under employed. It comes from two real avenues to one is wages. People can come back to the market with lower rate lower wages in some cases. I had an employee asked me how i became a permanent employee. There is a lot of temporary employment out there as well. The answer is simple. We need more confidence. Most importantly, consumers will expand. Matt thank you for joining us. We will take a quick break and come back on this jobs day. Vonnie we have confirmation via the Associated Press from a Navy Spokesman shots have been reported from the building on the Washington Navy yard. The Spokesman Says the yard is now on lockdown. This is after washington, d. C. Affiliate reported to Police Responded to it active shooter. This is the same side almost two years ago when one lone gunmen shot 12 people and one more. We will bring you the latest on this as we hear more. Stephanie and matt. Stephanie thank you. More to the market right now the jobs report. According to analysis, the Labor Department is about to tell us 233 thousand jobs were created in june. That is the estimate. If the does it mean the economy is percolating . Lets check in with the former chair of the White House Council of economic advisers to president obama. We will start with what is your number. How about you . I would be closer to the consensus. There is a wide range on the numbers. It is around 230. It could be anywhere from 100 to 300. Even if the truth is to 30 230. Matt why is it such an inaccurate number . Alan the u. S. Economy is hard to measure. Companies are slow to respond. One of the reasons why revisions have been positive is we have an enormous economy. We are looking at, do we have 100 and 20 4 million jobs, itd in one sense, it is quite accurate. Stephanie d consider consider the jobs the most important economic statistic . Everyone loves to change their tune with what number matters. Alan it is very important, no question. You need to look at a whole bunch of look at sixmonth changes and 12 month changes. Matt we are adding 200,000 jobs per month, unemployment at 5. 5 . It could go lower to five. 4 or that sounds great. Stephanie how important wages are. Matt even though it has been horrible for the past 30 years it has been ok. Are we in a good place and is this where we want to be . Alan the u. S. Economy is slowly healing from this tremendous course. At some science, it is accelerating. I think it is positive and we are not all the way back yet. There is a lot of ground to make up. Anything about all the people out of the workforce, they were a huge drag on the economy. Alan labor force per dissipation for women peak in 2000. We attract more people back into the workforce. Stephanie is it that people do not want jobs . Alan one of the legacies of the crisis we have is that a lot of people have moved on. Some retired early some have gone back to school who probably will come back for the workforce. But i think recessions do have a lasting effect on Labor Force Participation. We have seen it stabilize. That is the first step, maybe a small bounce back, but i do not think that will make up too much of the ground we lost. Matt you will stay with us to help us analyze the number to we will also talk to bill gross as soon as the number comes out to get his take on it. Stephanie ks a Labor Force Participation five times fast . Matt well may have 15 seconds we only have 15 seconds. Julie hyman is not the Labor Department with breaking news. Julie so we saw a gain of 223,000 and payrolls. The Unemployment Rate is falling to 5. 3 . 5. 3 , better than 5. 4 percent that economists had been estimated. The average Hourly Earnings is the number the fed and investors are paying attention to. Month over month, no change in the average Hourly Earnings. No growth and yearoveryear, that brings the gain to 2. 0 . We saw a revisions that there mentioning in the payroll report for april and may. The combined provisions resulting in a decline through the april number going to 187,000. In may, going to 200 54,030 brings the average for the year in terms of and average gain of the year. You are talking about labor force dissipation rate. The lowest since october of 1977. You heard that right. The underemployed, the folks who would like to work full time but are working parttime, dropping a little bit. The longterm unemployed, that rate is falling from 28. 6 . Overall, the labor force is shrinking. The headline number here 2003000 jobs last month. An Unemployment Rate of 5. 3 . Matt it dropped further than we expected. The number attitude not come up to us much as we expected. I lost the office will. As you say, the numbers are not very exact. It is a huge economy and difficult to measure and we are seeing revisions at a numbers. What you see about the picture julie gave us . I think it is positive. One cloud was wage growth. That was unexpected. Im not surprised to see labor support edge down. We have not done much to keep them in. We cut off longterm uninsured benefits. So hire the longterm unemployed, that expired a long time ago. We are seeing the evolution of unemployment in part because of leaving the labor force. Stephanie if anything, it looks a tad week, stocks up only because they think janet yellen will not raise rates. When this is the case and this is the environment we are operating in, how do you look in an honest and fair way the numbers do not look good and i guess the oslo go up, doesnt it seem the system is not looking good . That is a common occurrence. They are taking into account Interest Rates. The top was relatively strong right on consensus. I would not read too much news into the report. The main news was probably weakness in wage growth. Matt you feel in your heart it is not necessarily the case. Stephanie i understand that hear it i think the way the economy is behaving and affecting real americans should be reflected in the way that market disciplines get to respond. Matt they may feel differently. Vonnie quinn, lets go out and find out what how wealthy americans are reacting to this. Vonnie it may not be the fundamentals we can but the markets are taking it as a slight disappointment. He to 23 number is a little disappointing a little disappointing. We are seeing the biggest reaction the dollar chopping about. 3 among other currencies. The tenure is down about three basis points to 2. 9 . But stephanie, as you mentioned in terms of futures, were seeing a gain for futures. It gives janet yellen more breathing room and does not ring forward more heightening. Stephanie thank you. Lets take you now to tom keene and Michael Mckee a bloomberg surveillance. Theyre getting the the reaction to the job number. They are conducting a radio interview right now. The stock market levels and the necessity to increase shortterm rates. Yellen are clearly in my mind neil classically demand driven economists, the ground is shifting to a more it includes asset bubbles. I think they move up in september. Tom i would notice, the threemonth moving average of payrolls, it is actually pretty spritely. The six and 12 months members there, they are not there. They are concave and downwards. They have got to go upwards before we can change the dialogue. We have aced strange a strange trend. Theyre not moving all that much. The economy seems to be, as you are pointing out in this channel, 3. 8 nominal growth and jobs seem to be going along with that. And jobs are strong and they look good. Prior economic cycles, these types of numbers would lead to significantly higher wages. But it is not happening care not to criticize, but you have to criticize that last segment, he said every cycle is like every other cycle. It is not. It is very weak demand oriented. It is driven by monetary stimulation and quantitative is asked. We still has not seen a recovery the likes of prior recoveries. Tom i know you want to jump in. This is bill gross. The idea of the great distortion. Dont they have a responsibility to get some normal financial architecture . I think they do. Im sure you read it a few days ago, the Central Banks centralbank produced an annual report. It questions global Central Banks and private sector demand, what you speak to in your question. They claim zero days Interest Rates as i claim for the past few years, a counterproductive influence that limits investment. It is a likely source for future bubbles that ultimately flopped. I think the ground is shifting slowly. Mike what is the appropriate level and how fast should they get there . That is the guessing game. Nobody knows. Gross does not know and yellen does not know. That is why they suggest i sit i suspect, based on higher levels of debt to gdp global basis, that they have talked about, that the new neutral will be its naturally lower than the old. The fed funds rate was centered around 4 . I think it will be centered around 2 . The fed will reach that sometime in 2018. It speaks to gradual maintaining current levels of Interest Rates. Tom mohammed suggests we will see some sort of depreciation. Do you agree . Bill i think it is 5050. I agree with the position. I note yesterday the Financial Times basically suggested they jump into the deep blue sea and take their chances. I see both sides of the argument. Im a little against the austerity position with the ecb. At some point, they should recognize greece as a primary fiscal surplus and anything more with increase unemployment to 25 to perhaps 30 . I found fault on both sides. Tom you are unconstrained. Can you buy or be opportunistic within greece . Bill not in greece. Those are active markets and they move relative to germany and relative to the nine states. The risk markets, obviously a lot of things to do in this environment, not only dominated by greece, but china and other potential incidents. Tom we thank you all for joining us on bloomberg radio. We will continue this discussion. Stephanie that was bill gross speaking with tom keene and Michael Mckee. What do you think about what he had to say . Alan you know, i am not convinced the new normal is radically different from what we have had before. I think if we make the right policy steps, we could get back to a normal type of environment. Something much closer to normal. Matt what do you think the fed passes reaction would be to this . A rate increase pushed back now . I think this would have relatively little effect on the fed decision. It probably leans a little towards moving a little later. On the other hand, the Employment Index is up 2. 8 percent a better measure of wage pressures. The headline numbers suggest the economy unemployment was a positive development. The labor force rate fell by three. 3 . That is probably driven by demographics. Matt the fed looks at two mandates, jobs and inflation. Is wage growth the best way the latest fed now prefers . Alan i think it looks at a portfolio. Home prices are a big part of it. It takes the Exchange Rate into account because that affects our inflation. It looks at wage pressure because so much costs are driven by wages. Stephanie how much attention does janet yellen need to pay to china, greece, and puerto rico . Alan only because of the effect on employment and inflation, probably more importantly because the fed has become our the fact of age and when it comes to financial risk and what is going on in greece is obviously a major risk for the u. S. Economy. Stephanie should that be the feds de facto role . Alan i could see a case for adding but congress will not do that. Were looking at the mandate as it is. Another financial crisis will not be good for maximum employment. Stephanie we appreciate you joining us today. Matt can we keep him for an hour and a half . Alan it is much easier here than on the white house lawn. The sun at this hour in the morning is right in your eyes at the white house. Matt kind of cool to have an office in the white house. Alan it is pretty cool. There is no more important honor than i had in my career. Matt thank you so much for joining us. We will take a quick rate. Still to come, David Rubenstein of carlyle group. Doing debt situations in greece and puerto rico. Stay with us. Vonnie bringing you to the u. S. Capitol noun washington, d. C. Police are confirming their monitoring and actives shooter situation. The spokesman said people should avoid the area. Help them strategically deployed. This comes after the active shooter situation was reported shortly before eight p. M. Eastern. No reports of any casualties at least for now. Matt the job market is reflecting a more moderate pace of Economic Growth slightly. Added 223000 jobs in june, falling just short of estimates. The government revised may increase downward. Fell to a sevenyear low of 5. 3 . That was because the share of working age people in the labor force was the lowest in 37 years. Investors are pulling back from a Housing Market rebounding without them. The share of home purchases made with cash has fallen to a fiveyear low. Sales have not been this low in more than 15 years according to the Research Firm realty trac. Investigators want to know if airlines in the u. S. Are colluding to drive up prices. The justice department, details in meetings and conversations, a crucial factor in determining fares and domestic fares are down this year and capacity is at a poster session high and it is going the other way, collusion or not. Stephanie when i look at the Market Reaction, it is it positive. No huge moves, which is good. Part of it is an Office Amount of participants are not in today. Given all the drama going on in greece, it is good that things are a bit more calm here. When we return after the break Erik Schatzker will be live on the ground in athens giving us the real deal. Stick with us. Stephanie welcome back and coming up later today, anthony foxx will join our very own betty liu live from the ideas festival at 11 30 a. M. Eastern right here on Bloomberg Markets day. I want to take you back to the situation in greece. Erik schatzker who i sure hope you are following this week, is in athens talking to people on the ground. There you are, like you are in a town square. What are you hearing . Erik the Parliament Building is right behind me. Why not talk greeks and find out how they feel standing right beside me. He assures me it is a strong point of view. I do not know what it is yet. If you would be so kind, how do you plan to vote this weekend . Explain why you will vote yes. Because i trust institutions more than i trust politicians in greece. These are the same institutions that admitted more austerity than they should have and are taking responsibility. Does that not concern you . I feel like even for yes or no, the point is i cannot just trust the greek politicians and i choose yes. Erik in your mind, is this a yes or no vote on membership in the eurozone . To europe in general. Erik i spoke today to the number two man in the government effectively a righthand man. He assured me that on monday this countrys banks will reopen even if there is not a new deal with creditors. You work in a bank. No money in the banks in order to do it. And actually, i understand this is a political game airplane. Erik there is a lot a propaganda right now in this country up it i have three leaflets in my hand. They have a pavilion set up right here, guys are handing out these pamphlets and leaflets. To what degree is propaganda going to influence the referendum . I do not know. We will find out. I believe propaganda plays a role always. Because we do not have time. So we use our emotions and it is easier to work. Erik you will vote against the government. I will not vote against the government and i will vote yes to europe. Erik i understand. Thank you so much. We are here in the main square in athens trying to figure out where momentum is. Back to you in new york. Stephanie bloomberg providing you comprehensive coverage of the great referendum starting sunday night at 6 00 p. M. Eastern right here. Global resources will bring you the results as they are available. If got to stay tuned to bloomberg television. Greece in crisis. We will have that sunday and monday and you do not want to miss it. Matt we will hear that he loops interview coming up. Stephanie good morning. This is Market Makers on a big thursday heading into the fourth of july weekend on jobs day. From puerto rico to greece, we have got you covered. Matt some have already checked out but not us. We are right here with you. A great job incredibly intelligent. Stephanie for the most part paired remarks from regulators from media commentators. Nothing better than really getting a sense of what they care about and what matters most. Stephanie we will talk to another man who knows awful lot. Not just your average guy on the street. David rubenstein coceo and cofounder. Betty liu covering the jobs number greece, puerto rico, and until then, lets give you the snap shot. Added 223,000 jobs in june. Meanwhile, the government revised increase downward spear the Unemployment Rate down a sevenyear low to five point 3 . Julie hyman is at the Labor Department with a further breakdown of the report. Julie we saw the Unemployment Rate go down largely because a lot are leaving the workforce. 432,000 last month. The commissioner says this month tens to see big swings on the upsides and downsides. That is something to consider. The real surprise from the report was probably the average Hourly Earnings, unchanged in the month of june. The fed is looking for a wage inflation. We did not see it and it meant so yearoveryear number also trended lower to a gain of 2. 0 . You mentioned provisions not just for made but for april. That means the average thus far this year is a gain of 2008000 jobs if you break it down to a Monthly Average or the Labor Force Participation rate, the lowest since october of 1997 1977, excuse me, 62. 6 . That is notable as well. A lot of folks apparently dropping out of workforce teenagers and we are seeing them, a lower rate for them a higher rate dropping out than for folks older. I also looked at the breakdown by industry. Will Oil Extraction paying a lot of attention to a decrease of 800 jobs last month, double the prior month construction flat on the month. It is the worst numbers we have seen it since the march decline. Retail, nearly 33,000 jobs added in the retail industry, the highest number since january. Stephanie we will stay in d. C. With breaking news from vonnie quinn. Vonnie leadership changes as intel in fact. The president rene james is leaving. According to the press release and the message sent out to employees, james will stay until january. She has agreed in order to transition the office. We also know intel will make a 4 million transition payment. This among other changes being announce today. Intel is rising just a little bit in the premarket. The stock has not been doing so well recently. Matt and stephanie . Matt thank you very much for that. We will continue to cover the breaking news out of washington. The jobs reports, and we will also continue to cover what is going on in the navy yards here. A spokesman has confirmed shots were reported in the Washington Navy yard. Nowhere that anyone there has been hurt. A lockdown is underway here. A gunman killed 12 people at the Washington Navy yard, the oldest naval installation. We are hoping no one has been hurt here, but we will continue to keep you updated on the story. Stephanie we will send you out to aspen, colorado. Betty liu is therefore the annual aspen ideas festival. She is sitting down with the one and only cofounder of the carlyle group, David Rubenstein. Thank you so much. I am here with David Rubenstein bright and early here in athens. Great to see you this morning. Lets start with the jobs report and the u. S. Economy. We saw a dip. The number of jobs created. They were estimates of as much as 350,000 jobs for last month here the jobless rate continues to fall. Where do you think we are . David the lowest Unemployment Rate in years. It is very encouraging to we would have liked to have had more jobs created but still that is good. We have a low per dissipation rate. The per dissipation rate is the lowest since 1977 when i was in government. It reflects the fact that a lot of older people have retired after they lost their jobs in a Great Recession paired younger people cannot get jobs right out of college so theyre living with their parents were going to graduate school. Many times, parents are anxious to get their kids out of the house or they get internships for them and sometimes they pay people to take their children in internships because the kids are at home and sometimes parents do not want them. We have not gotten too, there is that problem but it just seems like even though housing is recovering, and you see the stock markets and they are shaky. They are the shakiest they have been in quite some time, we have not seen a liftoff in the economy. Business seems to be doing well. Youre doing great business. We have not seen the liftoff in the economy. Why . David it may not be the case you will grow at four or 5 after a recession and a longer. We used to have them every seven years for about nine months they lasted on average. They typically have four or 5 growth afterwards. We are now used to 2 or 3 growth. I do not think we will see a liftoff we would like to two or 3 growth is probably what we will get for the rest of the year. We should be comfortable with that. The Biggest Issue is whether greece will have a spillover effect on the overall economy and whether we will ultimately go into a recession. Remember we have them every several years or so after world war ii. With the last recession and june of 2009, technically, if you were to say the average would be seven years, 2000 acting, you might start one. You can go longer. It doesnt have to be in 2016 or 2017. At some point, we will have a slowdown again. When it happens, it will not be as good as the Great Recession but we should expect a slowdown at some point. Warren buffett says, have a moped or a buffer protection. Do we have a moat to protect things like greece . David i do not think we have a sub prime crisis. You do not usually know what will cause them president obama and jack lew make sure there is agreement together appeared i expect there will be agreement probably in the next 10 days or so just because it is inevitable. I think whatever the referendum outcome is, something will have to get done. The government will recognize they cannot run an economy and the country if in fact they are not part of the eurozone. With the outcome is that the greeks vote no and eventually there is no deal and the greek greeks do leave the european without the armageddon . Greece is 2 of the it eu. It will have a spillover effect and i think it is being recognized now by the eu leaders that it would be better to resolve this even though it is a small part of the gdp of europe. I do think they do not want a spillover effect on other economies, somewhat greeces unique, but it will not be pretty. It will look ugly in the process something will get done after the referendum. We are not making investments there. I think greece is not a place europe i think is a very attractive place to invest. 20 lower than comparable assets in the united days. We are a large investor in europe and will continue to be. There is prices are relatively no and the euro are wrote is relatively cheaper now. Europe is a pretty attractive place to invest. China. The stock market went to a bear market of two days ago. David it went down. It is not a sustained fall necessarily. Remember, the stock market went up for a long time to it is very high compared to where it was a year or two ago. China is doing something no one else is ever done. They are taking 11 or 12 trillion in trying to grow it at six or 7 a year. That is very unusual. They grew for 30 years in a row, and no economy had done it. They are still growing at a pretty good clip. There are areas of concern but generally come i think the chinese economy is a good place to invest. The biggest concern for you about china is what . David cohen theyre trying to do things that has not been done before. To a domestic consumption. That is not easy to do. They have a large Anticorruption Campaign which is slowing the economy somewhat. And they have the antialeutian efforts going somewhat arid theyre trying to solve the corruption problem and make sure they are not an art economy only. It is not easy. They are doing reasonably well. It is not perfect. Back here in the u. S. Politics, there are several politicians here paul ryan speaking yesterday, senator mark warren and others at the ideas festival. They all talk about tax reform. You heard Hillary Clinton several weeks ago, again, talking about the Capital Gains tax. Rich hedge fund managers. We have got to make them pay their fair share of taxes. Does that worry you . David im giving my money away anyway. It is not my major concern. My major and is growing Good Investments and being able to give away more money. Tax rates are not my main concern. I do think tax rates are important to other people and i do not want to say i am not interested in them, but i do think if you have too high a tax rate, you have certain disincentives here it u. S. Economy has done pretty well with relatively low capital rates. I recognize the political concerns. I do not think there is likely to be any test reform anytime soon. Paul ryan himself has said in this congress, there is not likely to be any major test reform. We will probably have to wait before we see any real test reform and i would be in favor of it on the corporate and personal income side. I think there should be reform. It is complicated now. The fact that the income comes in test at the Capital Gains rate and at the income tax rate. Should that be fundamentally changed to make it more equitable in the country . David the people that benefit are largely the real estate industry. 55 of all the carried interest taxations paid by the real estate industry. If you were going to pick up any revenue, you have got to tax them the same way. The end is Energy Industry and also the Venture Capital industry important to job creation. If you say, lets exempt Venture Capital because there waiting to jobs and are innovative, lets exempt real estate because we do not want to ruin the real estate industry, you have little money left to pick up. Is there any reason to go after the private Equity Industry when you exempt other industries . If there will be a change everybody should be treated equally. I do not think there should be a change. I also think the disincentives we give to the industries would not be great for our economy when we are trying to throw the last recession still. A story came out recently about how they settled with the sec, paid a 30 million fine big essentially, miss allocating their profits to investors. I think the fcc is just becoming more and more they want to enforce the industry will bit more. They want to see more transparency in the way that fees are collected in the way distributions are distributed. Do you feel at carlisle that you need to be more transparent about it . Are you looking at revising the way you are reporting your structure . Your profit . David a 10 million fine and 20 million with some kind of reimbursement or other things. They had a structure that we do not have it i am not familiar with all their backs and i do not want to comment but i know in our structure, it is different than their structure. Al investors are very happy with it here and we have gotten from our investors over 28 years 29 rose internal rates concern over 28 years. They are generally happy. A large investor base. Generally come i think theyre pretty happy and we are not in any discussions with the fcc. David, think you so much for joining me this morning. David rubenstein. Back to you from sunny aspen. Stephanie thank you. Given their performance and growth, having carlisle investors are pretty happy with how things have gone. We have got more breaking news. This time on bp. Vonnie european trading is up almost 4 . Almost 5 . This is after we are hearing bp is settling claims for up to 18. 7 billion over the oil. The company saying the payments will be spread out over 15 years. The dividend will be unchanged still involves the largest liabilities from the assets. The states will receive about 4. 9 billion over the 18 years another 2. 2 billion over that time. The cumulative charge will be about 10 billion more at the end of q1. The statement from the ceo saying it provides clarity. Matt it seems like a lot for me. Over 18 years or you have got to work that in. Matt we will come back with more from the ground in athens greece. Stay with us here. Stephanie you are looking at a live shot at london. I will say it is fair to say it is a great day. That is how london looks today. We are here in nyc. We will give you an on the ground group view of the job and the u. S. Economy. Taking you down to houston home to more Oil Companies than any other city in the world. With oils slump, the city has been faced with laos and job growth is without a doubt growing. Parker joins us now. Mayor partner mayor parker, many say it is a slight negative but for you, the city fused and that has been hit so hard by the oil slump, what does it really look like . Mayor parker we think it is a slight negative as well but we continue to grow. Our economy continues to expand about half the rate it was. We are still in a growth mode, albeit a slow growth mode. We are a headquarters city for oil and gas. The have been layoffs here. More hard hits are the field operations. Matt how hard hit have you been in houston . You have a lower Unemployment Rate than the national average. But you still obviously have a reliance on these industries. How tough has it been the sliding prices . Mayor parker it is a concern but it is not a crisis by any means. Our economy continues to expand and our Unemployment Rate has had a slight uptick, but barely measurable. We are still about 40 dependent on oil and gas. I spent 20 years working in the oil industry before i entered politics. That was 80 of the economy when i was in the industry. Our other big sectors have been doing very well. Medicine is a huge sector and we also americas largest import and export port near the port is doing extremely well. The other sector is manufacturing. Stephanie obviously not in the oil industry, but when you say the economy is going slightly, with aesthetically . Mayor parker manufacturing and medicine. The port of houston as well. We have both the import and export side here. Both of those are beginning to expand. There is enough in the broader economy besides oil and gas that is allowing us to continue to expand. Stephanie in a recent speech you looked and said, as it relates to the economy, it is just a pothole in the road. Give us more specifics, just given how big the oil industry has been, when we say manufacturing, medicine, how do those two industries get big enough that they can help whether the oil storm . Mayor parker they cannot offset by themselves the impact of oil prices, but oil prices have stabilized in recent weeks. All of our indicators are mixed. Oil is about 40 of our economy. But as i said, a lot of those, the impact of the Oil Prices Hit first in the field operations. Slowdowns in the hiring of personnel out in the field. Here, there has been some retrenchment. A lot of the companies seem to be using it as an opportunity. One of the things they have done is increasingly relied on temporary workers with a rapid ramp up in hiring. Temporary workers have been laid off. There is a shifting. Matt i want to break away from the oil type for a second. You have done innovative is in houston to achieve growth in other instances. How do you integrate all the people who come in to houston from the outs died . I know you have a great nonenglishspeaking educational program. One and five and approaching one of four is foreignborn. You can send in houston and speak any number of asian languages. We really have people from all over the world here. We have to focus for their kids, english is a second language. A very Robust Program for that. We have three distinct populations. Largely brought in by the oil industry, we have immigrants the best and the brightest from around the world. And then, we have refugees one of the largest resettlement areas in america. The good news for those who come here is that this is a very welcoming place. The economy has been able to observe them with a range of jobs all the way up to the high skilled and hightech jobs we have here. Matt he recently got married. It does not seem like texas is the kind of place that would be excepting of gay marriage. But now, obviously, the entire nation has to look at this as an equality issue. How do you deal with being in the state of texas still dealing with these issues. Mayor parker i have a professional relationship it we have to agree to disagree this one. Marriage is simple simply marriage. No longer gay marriage. It is the law of the land and they will have to get over it appeared i had to go out of state in order to marry 18 months ago. I am happy to have my marriage recognized. Stephanie so are we. Any representatives who are not comfortable, getoverit. Matt we want to give you a look now at our top headlines today. A new poll says sundays referendum in greece is too close to call, if it actually happened. The survey shows 47 of greeks leading toward a yes vote backing austerity, excepting an international bailout, and 43 favor a no vote which would be an endorsement of the governments position and a continuation of capital controls. The greek government has indicated it will except some of the creditorsproposal. The finance mr. Made it clear where he will draw the line. As he put is my work on a deal without debt reorganization . No, i prefer to cut my armor. Its ok. That is a big red line. Ynismatt if greece ends up voting yes on sunday, he will quit his post. About 5000 people are forced to flee their homes after a train the realm it. Flammable gas went off the tracks last night in marysville. A two mile radius evacuated. Seven officers were hospitalized after breathing in the fumes. Officials say evacuations could last 48 hours. Another case over in the healthinsurance industry this morning. Agreed to by health net 46. 3 billion dollars in cash and stocks. Theyll give 17 the biggest market share in medicaid. It also provides an entry into the care market. Those are your top headlines this thursday, really a friday. Stephanie here are the three things you need to be looking at today. The Bloomberg Markets management managing editor joins us now along with one of my favorites and definitely one of matts. The cio of fundamental fixed income and also a tesla enthusiast. Welcome to great to see you. We have got to start the jobs report. You first look at the numbers and say, ok, not that great and not that that the more you dealt in, it is kind of a disappointment. A really mediocre wage number, 0 increase from last month. That is kind of the dog that did not bark. I do not know the right analogy. I dont know it isnt that a term . Matt i will start using that. And then you have got labor participation. As the lowest level since 1977. So you have weekly participation, weak weight growth. Matt i was just reading a piece that somebody did about ricks take on the economy, that it is actually better than it looked at the outset. Stephanie what do you think . Rick this is an economy that has created more jobs in the last two years than the last 13 combined. If we were creating 200,000 200000 jobs every year it would be impressive. When you look at education and health services, pretty impressive. In terms of travel and leisure, solid, every single month. No doubt the disappointment around the wage is what it is however there is something really important happening with this economy you are creating an unbelievable cyclical impulse, a lot of lowincome jobs. It will be very interesting to see when the esi prints at the end of the month, you are skewing the data because you see retail jobs that tend to be lowerincome jobs average Hourly Earnings suggest average wage growth is coming down which may not be a negative when you think about the dynamic anyway. It will be interesting to see all the companies, mcdonalds, walmart costco ikea, raising wage. Joe i am convinced. Stephanie i also want to point out, i have received messages dogs that did not bark is a great saying. Matt it is from a classic story. Stephanie thank you, wikipedia. Matt lets move on to the number two story. Joe the shanghai composite taking again. It had a meteoric rise, and now it is tumbling. Not surprising. We have had news about cutting fees, news about preventing more ipos more clear attempts to stop the bleeding that are not working. I think that is notable. Matt i heard the chinese stock market has lost 2. 4 trillion since its peak in june, which it taken alone would be the fifth biggest market in the world. Stephanie what do you think . Rick you have to have one eye on greece and part of an eye focused on china because the data is disappointing. You are putting a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system, Monetary Policy and you look at things like resources that deescalate, it is something to keep an eye on. China has two minutes resources versus other places, where you can put in liquidity and create Monetary Policy stimulus, but you have to keep an eye on it. Stephanie three. Joe the milk glut. No production is growing like crazy. Currencies connected to milk like the new Zealand Dollar stephanie can we show that image that look like a guy topless. Matt i always take off my shirt to milk a cow. It is only polite for the cow. Joe they are producing so much they have to dump it out. It spoils, obviously. Matt this is something i have been hearing about. Is it not typical that the dairy industry does this . Joe there is typically some that they dont out, but this year they are dumping a lot out. There are exports from island. Perfect storm. Matt rather than exploiting the market. Joe they cannot sell it. Rick i do not follow the milk market that closely. Stephanie it is huge. Rick i understand that. We do watch agricultural companies, but i cannot give you a great assessment. Stephanie you were not aware . Rick a coffee supplement is the only thing i would really matt have you been hearing that adults should not drink milk . I like to drink cups and cups of milk. Stephanie you are not an adult. Rick, you do not have milk on your mind, what are you focusing on . Matt the greek situation. Rick the greek situation. Matt joe is going to athens. I forgot to bring that up. Joe as of a few days ago there were a lot of questions on whether the referendum would happen. Now barring something unforeseen it will happen and the conventional wisdom is it will grow they will vote yes. Matt i did not want to interrupt you, but also plug joes new show, what did you miss . At 4 00 p. M. It looks like a yes vote. Rick the way it is being framed, it does not sell get is that dangerous to vote no, however you have a tough dynamic that you can vote no and then start the negotiation process. I do not think that is right. I think the markets will focus on a no vote and what it means for volatility in the marketplace. The odds are it will be yes, a change in government that will take a period of time, but the ads, depending on how this is framed, is really orton. Matt do you feel Alexis Tsipras overplayed his hand and then took it back . This is a major followup. It is embarrassing. Matt there has been an amazing amount of posturing and gameplaying and negotiating on how to do this, and now they are in a tough spot. In terms of the market perspective, i think ecb will be very strong about it. Comments from Angela Merkel and others will be very strong in terms of the eurozone. Stephanie in terms of investing, does it put you in a tough spot. We have been in weeks of posturing and gameplaying. Do you said on the sideline thats sit on the sideline, look for dips and by . Rick it is a great question. Im amazed at the persistent focus on greece, such an insignificant part of the global economy. 2 but that being said, the markets focus on one thing at a time because of potential contagion. What do you do you look at opportunities in the marketplace, ryan lower risk, lowerlevels of cash positions because this will shape up for a while and markets will focus on it despite the fact that it is just not terribly significant. Matt poole. Stephanie thank you so much. Sporting the apple watch today. Matt i noticed that as well. Stephanie have you answered it like a phone . Matt all the time rick i have, all the time. Stephanie that is so geeky. You love the watch. Rick it keeps you connected in a lot of ways. Stephanie he loves to watch, the tesla. Cooler than you might think. Matt surprisingly cool. Stephanie it is like an advertisement for beer or cologne rick reid, surprisingly cool. Er rieder surprisingly cool. Matt Betty Stephens joins us from the council of economic advisers in washington. I have to ask about the disappoint with the wage numbers, the Participation Rate the actual number not being in line with street estimates. What do you make of this report . Betsy overall i think the report shows the recovery is continuing at the pace we have seen it recovering at for a wild. 223,000 jobs, all from the private sector, and unemployment coming down to 5. 3. You asked about the decline in participation. Participation has been bouncing around a little bit, but pretty stable over the last year. This was a take down that is worth taking a look at. We do not put too much stock in one particular month and in june when we were looking at june numbers, it is a good month to be a little circumspect. That is the biggest month in which people enter the labor force. What happened is we did not seem see quite as much entry as we typically see in a given june. Matt i understand, but let me ask about wage growth i am sure that is a more pressing issue for janet yellen, for us as well. It is great to get unappointed down to 5. 3 . That is one half of what the fed unemployment down to 5. 3 . That is half of what the fed looks at. But also important, raising people up, when you do not get wage growth, how do you feel . Betsry obviously the president is committed to helping the middle class and seen faster wage growth. This week he is out speaking about overtime rules which will extend overtime to 5 million more americans, helping to make sure people are paid for the hours that they are working, an important component of keeping wages and earnings up. Over the past year, wages are up 1. 9 . So, again, anytime you see flat wage growth in a given month, you want to take a look and see what more we can be doing to grow wages, but, you know, that is something the president has been thinking about every day for a long time now what are the steps we can take to grow wages and his entire agenda around supporting working families is around the need for us to see faster wage growth for the middle class, whether that is investing in more education, investing in training ensuring that workers have access to things like paid sick days you know, all of these things are about creating a robust environment where middleclass wages can thrive. Stephanie but the president is looking for results today. He does not have that much longer in office. Is focusing on training programs, sick days, and education, really at the fourth of his mind in terms of job creation . When you are standing behind close doors and you break down these numbers, what is most important to him . Betsey it is worth remembering that we have seen 64 months of consecutive job growth, which is the longest streak in history. We are getting job growth. Were getting solid job growth. Were getting people back to work every month. We have seen faster wage growth than inflation over the last two years, not as fast as we would like, and there is more work to be done, but it is important to take the long run and the short run perspective because we know education is critical for growing wages and we need to be making sure that we are taking those steps and not just steps that will give us immediate gains. Matt all right, thank you very much for joining us. Betsey stevenson from the White House Council of economic advisers joining us from the white house lawn. Stephanie next, the banker and the ballerina find out how a partner at Goldman Sachs waltzed his way into the world of ballet as one of the backers of one of the womens and making all the headlines, the first Misty Copeland. Stephanie welcome back to Market Makers on bloomberg tv. Thats go back to ramy for a look at what is on the move. Ramy so far major market see a nominal rise, up about. 33 . The nasdaq is up by nearly 2 10 of a percent. This is off of the news from employment data, the june nonfarm payroll. I want to take into some major movers heading to the Health Insurance sector. 17 has agreed to buy health net. Centene is down by about 3. 58 , but health net is a. Both companies up. Both companies have a combined family members and 37 billion in revenue. Also, casino stocks are rising. Mgm, las vegas sands, and wynn all of the. Here is a reason, macau, the gambling capital said mainland chinese videos visitors could stay longer. The two bank upgraded four casino equities including Galaxy Entertainment which is traded on the other side of the world in hong kong. Another acquisition, paypal and zoom xoom. Look at the pop, paypal get access to International Money markets for transfers. A wells fargo analyst said the acquisition will have minimal impact in the Money Transfer space. Matt he seemed pretty surprised about it for minimal impact. It is crazy. Ramy it is. Matt i wonder if paypal needs to buy xoom. No one has ever heard of xoom. Stephanie when we come back were talking the one and only Misty Copeland with the goldman partner who backed her from the beginning. Matt wrap up your july 4 weekend with bloomberg television. Sunday, 6 00 p. M. Eastern, competence of coverage of the greek referendum, the results, and Market Reaction right here on bloomberg television. We showed you our very own Joe Weisenthal will be going to athens. I think he is flying out tomorrow. Should be great. You will know what you missed. Stephanie moving on, the fast and furious world of wall street has a little in common with a gorgeous world of ballet tell that to Valentino Carlotti the patron of the one and only Misty Copeland perhaps the fastest rising star in the world of dance, and some say in the world of sports. Earlier this week she became the first africanamerican woman to be named the principal dancer at the american ballet theater. Misty copelands backer Valentino Carlotti is with us now. Valentino when we think of a goldman guy, a guy spent the last five years running the brazil division, i do not know if you run a parallel to a ballerina. How do you begin in this game . Valentino you began by saying she was elegant, i wish we were half as elegant. I came into the building and they said we know who you are, and i said how do you know, and they said we have your ideas id we prepped for you. One thing about misty what is it take to perform at that level, day in day out, to have that excellence, grace, to do the work that she does in the precise way that she does that i could learn from and apply to myself . She is incredibly before. Her dance is beautiful and she creates beauty on a daily basis. Stephanie did you ever think she would have the Cultural Impact she has, or in sports, you think about it yesterday misty on the cover of the new york times. She is an under armour athlete, they had the number one cover not because of Tom Brady Steph curry. Valentino she is focused on dance and that is why she is doing it. That is her north star. How can i perform well . As a black woman dancing in a profession that has very few black women, if any, at her level, of course you know if she reached this level it was going to be amazing and have a huge impact. You do see that in her shows. The audience is diverse. Matt have you always been a fan of the belay ballet because you would expect a Goldman Sachs partner to team up with jordan spieth. Bankers play golf. As popular as it is with the upper class in new york, it is not the average guys game. Valentino i grew up playing football, basketball, soccer and athletics was attractive, but i came from a family that emphasized being a wellrounded person, the arts, literature, science, math, and when i was a younger guy, my niece was a dancer and we used to play around doing ballet. She was the ballerina and i was her partner. I have always attended dance and if you have ever seen a ballet certainly a ballet that misty has performed in, it is incredible and beautiful. Stephanie what does her success mean to the Africanamerican Community . Valentino it is another example of showing that all pursuits are for all people, and it removes the barrier that people might have that you cannot do something because of your skin color, ethnicity, race, culture of course, the entire black community is currently proud and misty, we asked her how can you talk about being a black dancer all of the time, and she said it is part of who i am, it is who i am. That is part of her story and her journey and it has applications on how she has come on this. Stephanie you said a great dancer could be a great anchor. Valentino they rehearse 8, 9 hours a day. Stephanie i have seen a lot of set bankers. Valentino hold on. To rehearse 8, 9 hours, do that at a level of excellence, as a banker, we are in the pursuit of excellence, try to serve the client the best we can. We try to promote the pursuit of excellence, a firstclass product all the time. If you watch misty, if you watch her perform, prepare, any of the dances the rigor they have, the preparation they have the mental toughness they have, the physical toughness they have four me it is incredibly inspiring and i constantly look to learn from that. Stephanie is there a parallel question mckee went into the world of parallel . You went into the world of banking with our very few africanamericans. Valentino the career path is a must the same the soloist, the printable, the management the managing directing partner. There are too few people of color on wall street, too few women on wall street. Stephanie you are changing it. So is misty. Congratulations. Valentino thank you. Stephanie Valentino Carlotti. That is it. Were done. Good morning, everybody. It is 3 00 him in athens at 11 00 p. M. In tokyo. Matt we have got a lot of Coverage Today about greece and jobs. All over international. I would say greece is in limbo. The greek finance minister telling bloomberg tv this morning he will quit if the country votes yes. So confused, they do not even know what theyre voting for. Matt jobs were added but wages stagnated and more people left the workforce. We go inside the numbers. They say do not cry over spilled milk. Dump their extra supply into minorca. Good morning, everybody. Matt i believe we have raking