election in living memory, posing major risks for the euro and the eu itself. plus, riding the economic cycle — the imf says global growth is finally moving up a gear, and the boss of harley—davidson agrees. we have a special report from milwaukee in america's midwest. welcome to world business report. i'm aaron helsehurst. give me eight minutes and i will try, i will try, give me eight minutes and i will try, iwill try, nine, nine minutes they are telling me by the time i finished this, it will be eight! also coming up — electric cars are dominating the shanghai auto show. we are going to plug in for the latest from our correspondent there. but first, we start in france, where the shootings in paris have interrupted final campaigning in what was already being called the most unpredictable presidential election in living memory. centrist favourite emmanuel macron and far—right marine le pen look likely to go through after sunday's vote to a run—off on may 7. but they are closely followed by conservative francois fillon and far—left candidate jean—luc melenchon, who can't be ruled out. socialist benoit hamon, though, is being given little chance of making the next round. security is, of course, right back at the top of the agenda. but there are other huge issues for financial markets — number one is the fate of the euro currency. le pen wants to abandon it and bring back the franc. melenchon has also threatened to pull out, but he's softened that stance recently, now saying it should be reformed, and the independence of the european central bank taken away — both a big worry for financial markets. macron and fillon are supporters of the euro and want to see its institutions strengthened. then there's the eu itself. le pen wants a referendum on ‘frexit‘. so does melenchon, unless europe agrees to his reforms. another big worry for investors. macron and fillon want to stay in, macron wants a stronger eu, but fillon is more eurosceptic and wants more control of france's borders. the other major issue for the business world — labour reform, and france's famous 35—hour working week. melenchon wants to cut the working week even further, to just 4 days. at the other end of the spectrum, fillon wants to scrap the 35—hour limit altogether and make it easier to hire and fire. tomasz michalski is associate professor of economics at hec paris business school. hejoined us, great to have you on the programme. let me start with this, it is hard to believe in any poll nowadays, they have it awfully wrong in the last few occasions, but if marine le pen and jean—luc melenchon managed to get through to the run—off on may seven, that scenario, and correct me if i'm wrong, could possibly be a killer scenario for the euro and for the markets. that's to some extent true, however there is also another concern, what will be the parliamentary majority, which is going to happen at the election is going to happen at the election is going to happen at the election is going to follow after the presidential one. and it may arise that you are going to have a president like marine le pen or jean—luc melenchon without the parliamentary majority. and the parliament does have a say in a lot of the issues. perhaps the parliament, for example if marine le pen wins would agree to a referendum and most french are actually in favour of staying in the eurozone so it's not, you know, may not be a total disaster, it will make things extremely difficult here. it does indeed and that makes it difficult i guess to get any reforms through because let's be frank, france needs a lot of reforms, i keep getting told! the main economic challenge for any president, debt, told! the main economic challenge forany president, debt, deficit, how much the french government spends more than it actually earns, and of course the labour issue, the market. exactly. basically, the french didn't feel any kind of burden for example of the debt as of now because the rates were historically low and that is approaching and the gdp is 100% but if the rates go up as economic activity picks up and the month as it stands is back to the normal, you are going to see a big item in the budget appearing. next, so basically there has to be something done about state expenditure, the state, the french state, hasn't turned a positive budget for a0 years and counting. and then there are also other issues like you mentioned, reforms, the market is high, unemployment, 10%, relative to our european peers, and this requires very strong reforms of them market, not only of the labour market and improving qualifications. perhaps difficult reforms such as improving and introducing apprenticeships in the spirit of the german model. indeed. we will leave it there, we appreciate you coming in, lots of nailbiting between now and sunday. thank you forjoining us. thank you very much. we are also in the us midwestern city of milwaukee — home of the harley—davidson. the boss of the company has been telling our economics editor kamal ahmed why he's optimistic the global economy is, like his famous bikes, accelerating nicely. ididn't i didn't write this! he's not alone. the international monetary fund has also moved its economic forecasts up a gearfor this year and next. here's kamal. bitmapped at liberty to, the man who i’u ns bitmapped at liberty to, the man who runs and rights harley—davidson. —— meet matt. a all—american company that exports around the world. if things are going well for businesses like this, but the signal that the global economy is set. i asked him if the economy is indeed looking up. a lot of this is just psychology, when people feel more confident, then they are willing to make, if you will, financial risks of investing in something and putting their home, buying a motorcycle, but when they feel really uncertain, they pull back. they wait. and so they pull back. they wait. and so the election and so forth has helped people feel more optimism. running more smoothly at harley—davidson and for america, it is up and it is not alone, european growth is up, uk group is up. the official imf forecast to make a better reading, although there have been wrong before. and for the head of the world ‘s leading financial organisation, there are reasons to be cheerful. we are forecasting growth in 2017 at 3.5%. in 2018, at 3.6%. and that's a significant update from 2016. which is all good news. but we need to make sure that this momentum is sustained. when you come to a company like harley—davidson, you are immediately struck not by the size of the factory but by the sense of optimism. yes, some of that is down to the presidential election but a lot of it is down to the return of global economic growth. a return so marked, arguing that ten years after the financial crisis of the global economy has finally turned the corner. william harley and arthur davidson found their world —famous motorbike company in a shed on this site in 1903. it's the kind of business mr trump likes. and like so many american firms, it is waiting to see if this better global economic news is here to stay. that wasn't bad, was it? one thing was missing, kamal on a bike! let's talk to him about that later. let's go to shanghai, china now where the annual auto show is underway. it's a huge event. china has been the world's top car market for almost a decade and well over 1,000 new models are on display. 0ur correspondent robin brant is there. robin, the two big themes — electric and self—driving cars? i have been told that robert is a redhead. —— —— rob is a revhead.. this is the biggest car show in the biggest market in the world and it is just about cars you can drive away today. it is about tomorrow's ca i’s away today. it is about tomorrow's cars as well and that means autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles and china is trying to become a world leader in electric and that means the technology, the batteries behind them, but also persuading drivers to buy them and then drive them and i've been talking to some chief executives of the biggest car their strategy on electric and mathias miller who heads up vw, the biggest carmaker in the world, help me even though they have ruled out the new concept car for electric they want to see on the streets in a couple of years time, they hope to sell 1.5 million of them by 2025, he told me he still thinks vw will be making combustion engines for another 20 years. another thing people are talking about is autonomous vehicles. and a huge company here in china, their version of google, it is thrown money and resources into autonomous vehicles and announced yesterday interestingly that it wants to share its technology with anyone who wants it. but there is caution, they think they can have a car on the streets, and a common as vehicle, in three yea rs and a common as vehicle, in three years but one senior adviser at vw said to me they are not quite optimistic about safety, they have concerns about having autonomous vehicles on the streets in any other conditions than clear daylight. any favourites you've seen? anything you will stump up while you're there? he may have trouble hearing me. on my salary, maybe i can stretch to a chinese car but maybe not this one behind me! thank you, talk to you soon. making headlines — president trump has launched a federal investigation into whether dependence on cheap foreign steel is a threat to the us defence industry and national security. he signed the order at a white house ceremony surrounded by us steel bosses. the rarely used trade expansion act of 1962 raises the possibility of tariffs on china and other steel exporters. a fall in sales of barbie dolls has added to a slump at the world's biggest toymaker, mattel. it reported sales down more than 15% in the first three months of the year — the biggest drop in seven years and much worse than expected. mattel is still struggling with piles of leftover stock after a disappointing holiday season. i thought barbie dolls were popular. i guess when they brought out the new models, different colours, except wrote... don't forget, you can get in touch with me and some of the team on twitter. i will be back with christer have a look at the papers from around the world. —— chris too. don't adjust your set, everything is normal at the bbc. the average cyber criminal investigated by the national crime agency is just 17 years old and is motivated not by money but by a desire to show off in front of friends. that's the conclusion of a new report by the nca, which has been looking at ways to stop youngsters getting drawn into the world of online crime. 0ur correspondent angus crawford has more. the internet is breeding a new kind of criminal. who would never normally break the law. they are young and tech savvy and sometimes don't even realise what they are doing is wrong. investigators questioned teenagers convicted of cyber crime and other young hackers. the report found financial gain wasn't a priority. but they did want to impress other hackers. and thought the risk of getting caught was low. the early motivations can be the challenge, proving to their peers online that they can complete the challenge or they can break into certain things, find vulnerabilities. but we do see, it if they are good at that and they can build their reputations in forums and proved to their peers, we do see them being getting into this more for monetary reasons as well. this self—confessed hacker claims he taught himself. ijust read about it on the news. i got interested, wa nted on the news. i got interested, wanted to know how it worked and how this happens, how will website gets taken down. i researched it from there. i was 12 or 13. taken down. i researched it from there. iwas 12 or13. ifound it easy. you learn about the computer misuse act which is something you we re misuse act which is something you were likely to fall foul of if you go off and do something without any guidance. the nca research also shows early intervention can stop criminal behaviour. here, teenagers ta ke criminal behaviour. here, teenagers take part in attack competition, learning how to hack and stay on the right side of the law. 0ur breakfast team will be here at six o'clock. they will have all of the day's news and sport. the top stories this hour. france's president, francois hollande, has promised absolute vigilance after the gun attack in paris