Transcripts For BBCNEWS Unspun World with John Simpson 20240

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about peace and security. south africa has punished its ruling party for 30 years of failing government. but how does the chastened anc now select partners for the way forward? it is highly expected that the african national congress will come up with a coalition, even though it will be uneasy, but one that will be manageable. and immigration — the great issue in so many of the 60—plus elections which are taking place around the world this year — how does it affect us? we live in a much more globalised world. it's easier to travel. that has, you know, created movements of people around the planet which are presenting real challenges for governments. news reel: the allied | invasion of europe from the west is launched — 0-day _ the start of d—day 80 years ago was heralded by the broadcast of a couple of lines from a verlaine poem, ordering a particular french resistance circuit to start blowing up railway lines. very soon, british, american, canadian, free french and other troops stormed ashore to start the recapture of europe from the nazis. this anniversary seems like a good moment to look at where our world is today. the west in visible decline, russia fighting a war of aggression in europe, china stamping out ideological opposition wherever it can. rightly or wrongly, there's starting to be a kind of pre—warfeeling about our times. allan little is the bbc�*s special correspondent. he's reported on many of the major events of the past 35 years. i think we're definitely in a period of anxiety and fear, and i think the change of policy in russia in february 2022 realigned the world. you and i lived through the revolutions of 1989, which saw the reunification of europe. so, the period of peace that we've enjoyed over the last 80 years is certainly more fragile than it's been at any time during our lives, john. donald tusk of poland, for instance, the british defence secretary, grant shapps, and plenty of others talking about no longer being in a post—war world, but in a pre—war world. the threat of a resurgent, imperialist russia is very real. the collapse of the westernising, democratising experiment in post—soviet russia amounted to one question — what are the political consequences of this degree of destitution and humiliation that the russians were experiencing in the late 1990s? we knew what russia was in transition from. we didn't yet know what russia was in transition to. well, we know the answer now. the answer is that russia reverted to type, if you like. undeeradimir putin, it became authoritarian, dictatorial, and it's allied with changes in china and changes in iran and elsewhere. so, the world is reordering itself in quite a menacing way. do you feel that the 80th anniversary of the d—day landings, which is where all of this started, we're now shifting to deep nervousness, instead ofjust patting ourselves on the back, as we have on most d—day anniversaries? with the 80th anniversary, we've lost the living testimony. there's now almost nobody left alive. and i think it's very important to remember notjust what they did in 191m and 1945, but the kind of europe they came home to build after the war. and they wanted a europe that would turn the page on centuries of division in europe. france and germany had gone to war with each other something like four times in the previous century. in 1945, they wanted to build a europe where that wasn't possible any more. where are we, say, in comparison with the past? this is a period of huge anxiety. i feel anxiety myself. you and i have seen war up—close. we've seen genocide up—close. we know what it looks like. we know what it sounds like. we know what it smells like. and ifear, in western europe in particular, the danger of complacency. and i think that europe divides on this question as well, between the west and east. one of the things that's happened since 1989 is that eastern europe now, which initially welcomed in 1989, welcomed the westernising process, welcomed being brought into the european union, there is a populist drive in many of these eastern and central european countries against westernisation. they feel that the western model has been imposed upon them, or sufficient numbers of the population feel a western model that they don't recognise, don't feel comfortable with. .. the iconic figure of that position is viktor orban, in hungary, who has said himself that he wants a kind of illiberal democracy. seems to me the big danger is complacency, is saying, "we're not living in 1913. we're not living in 1938." we might be. can it really be that europe's whole future, everything has turned around because of one man's attitudes, because of vladimir putin solely deciding to invade ukraine and so on? or are there bigger principles behind him? under him, russia reverted to type, if you like, went back to the imperialism and the authoritarianism that had characterised both tsarist russia and communist russia. and so there is an appetite in russia for this kind of... self—definition, this kind of...this characterisation of the nature of the russian state. and i suspect that what we're doing now is walking along the edge of the razor blade, but that at some stage, we'll get over it. what are you, are you pessimistic or optimistic? i err towards pessimism these days, john. even today, 80 years on, the europeans still think of that moment, that 1944—45 moment, in very, very different terms and still think of the post—war decades in which they built the institutions of european democracy. they think about them differently to the british. for the british, it was a transactional... it was about trade. scratch away at the surface of european sentiment, european sensibility, what you find is anxiety about peace and security, rather than trade and the economy. and i think that is rooted in the different experience of the 1940s. south africa has marked the 30th anniversary of majority rule with an election which has cut the african national congress, the party of nelson mandela, down to size. crime, corruption, the failure of basic services, like power and water, have infuriated huge numbers of south africans. even though mk — the breakaway party of the man who symbolises corruption for many people, former presidentjacob zuma — actually did very well. contrary to expectation, the economic freedom fighters, under their fiery leader, julius malema, faded badly, while the democratic alliance, which runs the western cape and is usually called business—friendly, which means it gets the support of most white people, held its position with 21% of the vote but didn't noticeably thrive. so, now the anc has lost its overall majority, president cyril ramaphosa, an instinctive moderate, has to decide which of these groups to form a coalition with. i asked nomsa maseko, the bbc�*s southern africa correspondent, what she thought about the result. absolutely shocked at the loss of the african national congress, but not really surprised, because it was expected. people of south africa have grown tired of promises made and not kept. they are tired of high levels of violent crime, unemployment, the rolling blackouts which have crippled the economy, the day—to—day service delivery issues, like running water, you know, and the collection of rubbish, things like that, even though they are loyal to the anc government because of the history that south africa has in terms of, you know, apartheid. they know and appreciate what the anc and other liberation movements did for them back then. but this is a message by south africans to say that the honeymoon is over for the anc. but surely cyril ramaphosa cannot go into a coalition with jacob zuma or his people? there are people within the executive council of the anc that are saying that cyril ramaphosa, as president of this country and president of the anc, should resign from his position because this is the lowest point that the anc has ever got in, in terms of election results. in the last elections in 2019, the anc got about 57% of the vote, and this time around, they're barely holding on to a 40% majority. how likely is it that cyril ramaphosa can do some kind of deal with another party, oranother couple of parties? the democratic alliance, for instance. the anc acknowledges that there will be concessions that they have to make if they want to continue to lead, if cyril ramaphosa is to continue as president of the country. because if not, then the anc will have to sit in the opposition benches and allow the other parties to form a coalition and then govern, which is at this stage highly unlikely. but the democratic alliance has said that it is willing to go into a coalition with the african national congress, but in that there's going to be, you know, clashes in terms of policy and ideology because the democratic alliance is pro—israel, the anc is pro—palestine, the democratic alliance is also against the policy of black economic empowerment. and that will be a hard pill to swallow for the anc, which is trying with that policy to fix the wrongs of the past. and, of course, the democratic alliance is seen, rightly or wrongly, as being a white—run party, isn't it? absolutely. south africans, even though they know that it's been 30 years into democracy, they still have the memories of what it was like not to be in control of their lives, of their economy, of where they go and not go. so there's a lot of misgivings. now, the one name that we haven't mentioned here isjulius malema, of the economic freedom fighters. and they did really quite badly, didn't they? they are now officially the fourth, you know, party, biggest party. but, you know, julius malema delivered one of his most modest speeches when he said that he believes that the electorate has decided what they wanted. but also, he believes that the economic freedom fighters received the votes of the black middle class. and he believes that they will still be able to continue, you know, to be in the opposition benches, but also, there could be a chance that the african national congress itself would want to form a coalition with the economic freedom fighters. will we have a government soon, or in the medium term, or is it going to take forever? in the next, say, 20 days after these coalition, you know, negotiations have taken place... parliament needs to sit before the end ofjune, and that is where a president is going to have to be appointed. and it is highly expected that the african national congress will come up with a coalition, even though it will be uneasy, but one that will be manageable. "poor mexico, so far from god and so close to the united states." the rueful words of the 19th—century mexican dictator porfirio diaz. things have got even worse since then. floods of illegal migrants from all over latin america pass through mexico on their way to the us, and the drugs cartels smuggle immense quantities of synthetic opioids to the huge and growing american market. the drugs trade made this the most violent presidential campaign ever in mexico. 102 political assassinations, as well as kidnappings and attempted murders. and yet, in all this, claudia sheinbaum, the former mayor of mexico city and a joint nobel prize—winner for her work on climate change, won a landslide victory. the first woman to become mexico's president. she is the protege of the popular outgoing president, andres manuel lopez 0brador, who's known from his initials as amlo. but can claudia sheinbaum, even with amlo's support, sort out mexico's problems? and what was the cause of the landslide anyway? i turned to daniel pardo, of bbc mundo, in mexico city. andres manuel lopez 0brador, the current president who's been in power for the last six years. and he's managed to have people happy, really. increasing their salaries, poverty has been reduced from 40% to 36% average. 0bviously, violence is still a problem. insecurity is a huge problem for people. sheinbaum has become or was a very... a candidate that gave people the idea that those policies that enlarge their pockets are still going to be in place. that, added to the fact that the opposition is fragmented, divided, that they are trying to attack a very popular president who had to deal with the pandemic, still has 60% of people's support — that's a huge number for a latin american president. but it does sound from what you say as though amlo, lopez 0brador, will want to keep a foot in politics, will want to control her, if he can. that's the question that everyone's asking at the moment. how is she going to govern? how autonomous is she going to be? their relationship... although they are part of the same movement, they have major differences. it's not only about their background, they come from different sort of lefts, because amlo is part of this old left in mexico that's very rooted in the revolution, that is very nationalist. it's very traditional in their economic and especially development ideas. sheinbaum, she's a physicist, who went to university. she has got a phd. she's an expert in climate change. she was part of a team who won the nobel prize because of their contribution to climate change studies. she's a woman, right, in a very macho country. and that's why everyone's asking, how is she going to be autonomous and how much is he going to control her? he has said and promised that he's going to retire, that he's going to go to his farm, and he's not going to be involved in politics. this election campaign, in particular, has been very violent, hasn't it? and there's all the question about the drugs trade with the united states and so on. so, violence is still a major problem. the six years in which amlo was in power were the most violent in history, in terms of homicides. and, yes, this campaign killed at least a0 candidates who were running for office in different parts of the country. so, yeah, violence, it is a problem. however, i think most mexicans have got used to it and have realised that that's not a problem that any government, one single government, one single politician, could fix. people are happy because their pockets are filled with money and they're being able to consume as much as they want. this is a very dynamic economy. the choice that americans are going to make in the united states is going to have such an effect on mexico, isn't it? most of mexican foreign policy is regarding the us, either if it's a democrat or a republican. 0bviously, trump did... emerge with the different issues, but it wasn't that different, really. i mean, you see the relationship that he had with amlo. it was a very pragmatic relationship. obviously, it's a huge source of income for mexicans. a huge portion of the gdp here in mexico has to do with money that mexicans in the united states send to theirfamilies here in mexico. it's a tricky relationship, but at the end, pragmatism does take place and does make the rule of the relationship, no matter who is in power. big countries have attracted immigrants throughout history. there are always people who want to better themselves financially, and there are always large amounts ofjobs to fill which local people don't want to do. but in the modern world, with wars and the effects of global heating, immigration has become a majorforce for social change. entire cities have been transformed as a result of the hostility which this can create. it has been responsible in many countries for the rise of an angry populism. i asked the bbc home affairs specialist mark easton for his views on the changes that immigration has brought to modern society. you have to understand, we live in a much more globalised world. it's easier to travel from one place to another, and that has changed things and also our understanding of the world. and i think that has, you know, created movements of people around the planet which, as you rightly say, are presenting real challenges for governments. there was this extraordinary movement of people back in the noughties, after the expansion of the eu. we saw all the poles come in. suddenly, actually, britain was experiencing immigration in a way it never had before. that, i think, changed the way that a lot of communities felt about immigration. it had not been something they'd experienced before. and then i think you should wind the clock on and you get to brexit. and that, i think, was to a significant extent about communities who felt that they had not been informed about what was going to happen. and, of course, what we've seen, almost as soon as the ink was dry on the brexit final deal, immigration soared. i mean, notjust soared, john, but went to levels that we have never, ever experienced in this country. if you go back to 2022, we saw three quarters of a million net migration to this country. so, i think given that there is now rising anxiety about, actually, do we have control of our borders? which matters a lot. and are we making the right decisions on when we bring people in? and that leads you into the other bit of all of this, which is what the government calls illegal migration, a term which is contested, i should say, but certainly irregular migration. so, these are people who are... like, for instance, those coming over in small boats or hiding in the back of lorries, and they are coming principally to seek asylum in the united kingdom. that, just to give you some context, represents about 6% of all the migration that we have. so, the rest is legal? the rest is legal. the government has invited those people to come to the uk, has given them a visa and said, "in you come. yeah, we've got a job for you." this is, what, to be nurses? care workers and nurses. doctors? doctors. i mean, i know zimbabwe very well, where nurses are really needed, and doctors... of course. ..and bringing them here, to a rich country... notjust the uk, but other european nations, sort of absorbing vast numbers of key workers who are actually required desperately in their countries of origin. now, to some extent, this is about, you know, the freedom of the individual to decide how they want to pursue their career. but equally, i think there is a responsibility on the rich countries to ensure that they're not impoverishing the countries from which these people come. and here is the real rub. if you want to reduce immigration and not have to pay the really significant penalty of not having anyone to care for your ailing grandmother, we're going to have to pay more. and that means that money is going to have to come from somewhere, and it essentially means you cut something else or you put up taxes. and that is the unpalatable reality that we have got ourselves in a situation where we are prepared to bring in large numbers of people to do jobs at low rates that local people are not prepared to do. but an awful lot of people are coming in from countries which are just simply poorer. and they want the kind of salaries that are paid in britain, but also, in western europe and the us. there is a huge debate, political debate, certainly, about, "what is an economic migrant?" "what is a genuine asylum seeker?" where you have conflict, the countries that border that conflict, i'm sure you will have been to many of them, are suddenly overwhelmed by huge numbers of refugees. they haven't got the resources. they're often poor countries themselves, trying to deal with these. how do we have a fair, equitable system that means that those countries are not penalised, really, purely by their geography, while rich countries further away can say, "nothing to do with us"? mark easton, speaking to me here in london. we're getting punch—drunk, aren't we, with elections? there's the south african one and the mexican one, which we've heard about in this programme. the european parliament elections begin this week. and there's the indian one, of course. and injuly, we'll have the british one. nigel farage, who played a big part in persuading britain to vote for brexit in 2016, has thrown a hand grenade into the election campaign here by announcing he was taking over the leadership of the small reform party and would stand for parliament, despite having lost seven parliamentary campaigns over the years. and of course, there's the united states, where the election result could genuinely change the future of the world. lots of media experts think that donald trump's conviction on 3a charges of falsifying his accounts to hide the hush money he paid the porn actress stormy daniels has nudged the pendulum an inch or so injoe biden's favour. but we're likely to have televised debates, in which literally anything could happen between two ancient men of 77 and 81. i'm just weeks away from turning 80 myself, so i'm allowed to say all this. at which point, everyone, everywhere wonders how a country as vast and talented as the us can only turn up a couple of men like biden and trump for the presidency. but that's a story for another day. thank you for being with us for this edition of unspun world. from me and the unspun team, until we meet again, goodbye. hello there. it's been a pretty decent start to the weekend. there was a good deal of sunshine around across most of the country. a bit of cloud here and there, a few showers, mostly in the north. part two of the weekend doesn't look quite as good. it will start sunny, quite chilly. but we've got a couple of weather fronts pushing down from the north—west — that will increase cloud through the day, with some splashes of rain. now, we've got this weather front approaching the north—west of the country to move through this evening. showers merging together to produce longer spells of rain for the north and west of scotland. so unsettled, breezy, showery in the north, turning cloudier for northern ireland, but clearer skies for large parts of england and wales, with lighter winds here. so it will turn chilly for most. single digits, i think, for the majority of the country. but with more cloud across northern ireland, we will fall to around ten degrees in belfast. so sunday, then, we've got low pressure still towards the norwegian sea there, bringing northern—westerly winds into the country. we start off with quite a bit of sunshine. scotland, england and wales. cloudy skies for northern ireland, south—west scotland, in towards north—west england, north wales. and that cloud, with splashes of rain, will spill south—eastwards through the day. so it will turn cloudy across much of england and wales. probably the best of the sunshine across the far south—west, and the northern half of scotland doing pretty well, with sunny spells. but there will be blustery showers here. and a cooler day to come, i think, because of more cloud around — temperatures of about 12 to 17 degrees. as we move through sunday night, that area of rain splashes across the irish sea, into much of england and wales, becomes confined to southern and eastern areas by the end of the night. so where we have the cloud and the rain, then, a less cold night here, 10 to 12 degrees under clearer skies. further north, it will turn chilly. we start to pick up a northerly wind as we move into monday. that rain slowly clears away from the south and east. it may take a while to clear the east of england. eventually, it will do. then it's a bright day for most, sunshine and showers. most of these across the northern half of scotland, where they will be quite blustery and a chilly northerly wind at that. temperatures, 10 to 1a degrees in the north, 15 to 17 further south, giving some sunny spells. and we hold on to this chilly northerly wind through tuesday, even into wednesday as well. before low pressure starts to move in from the south—west, that'll cut off the chilly northerly and temperatures will slowly recover towards the end of the week. but it's going to be a fairly unsettled and a cool week to come, with a little bit of sunshine here and there. live from washington. this is bbc news. four israeli hostages abducted by hamas last october reunited with their families after israeli forces freed them from captivity in gaza. hamas reports more than 200 palestinians were killed in the raid by the idf. two hospitals say they have counted scores of bodies. we'll have the latest from the general election campaign as the conservatives are pledging tax cuts and labour promises to help small businesses. hello, i'm helena humphrey. four israeli hostages taken by hamas during the october 7th attacks have now been reunited with their families. but israeli forces in gaza killed scores of palestinians in the military operation to free them. israeli special forces raided two locations in nuseirat, in central gaza in broad daylight. 0ne israeli soldier was killed. hamas says more than 200 palestinians were killed in the operation. an israeli military spokesman said there were "under100" palestinian casualties. the eu's top diplomat condemned the israeli raid. the us president has also spoken out at a press conference during his state visit to france. i want to echo president macron's comments welcoming

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