and leave empty chairs. gracing us with their presence, caroline wheeler of the sunday express and jack blanchard from the mirror. hello and first of all, let's bring you up to date with the latest developments on the campaign trail — and today everyone seems keen to focus on brexit. theresa may insists only she can bring back a good dealfrom those crucial talks in brussels. iam i am confident that we can fulfil the promise of brexit together, and build a briton that is stronger, fairer, and even more prosperous thanit fairer, and even more prosperous than it is today. no, no, says jeremy no, no, sasteremy corbyn, accusing the conservatives of fostering what he calls a toxic climate ahead of those talks. we will confirm to the other member states that britain is leaving the european union, that issueis leaving the european union, that issue is not in doubt. but instead of posturing and pumped up animosity labour government under my leadership will set out a plan for brexit based on mutual interests of both britain and the european union. the liberal democrats, campaigning at a hospital in kingston, issue a warning about the possible effects of brexit on the nhs. remember that lie, emblazoned on the bus, £350 million of the nhs, eve ryo ne bus, £350 million of the nhs, everyone knows it is a blatant lie but now we've found out that the truth is even worse, it will actually cost the nhs hundreds of millions of pounds. in edinburgh, nicola sturgeon says the more snp mps there are, the greater the chance of stopping a "hard brexit". meanwhile in northern ireland, the ulster unionist party launches its manifesto. party leader robin swann says he'll oppose brexit becoming a backdoor to a united ireland. i. i, nor my party will tolerate any attempt to undermine the principle of consent. there can be no border up of consent. there can be no border up the middle, there can be no passport checks the citizens of northern ireland arriving at heathrow. all our energies should be focused on the brexit negotiations and getting the best deal for focused on the brexit negotiations and getting the best dealfor all people. we'll be discussing why brexit‘s back at the heart of the campaign in a moment. first let's take a look at how the parties' approaches compare. on this thorny issue. the conservatives are promising to bring down immigration from europe. labour accepts the end of free movement too, but would immediately guarantee the rights of eu citizens currently here. ukip wants a points—based system, while the lib dems would maintain the status quo. 0n trade, theresa may says we'll leave the single market and the customs union. labour accepts that, but would negotiate to retain the benefits of both, while the liberal democrats want to stay as members. the snp wants scotland's place in the single market to be protected. 0n legal matters, the conservatives say they would end the jurisdiction of the european court ofjustice. labour would keep eu protections on worker and consumer rights and the environments. while the lib dems would hold a referendum on the final brexit deal before it was put in place. caroline. brexit, the tories must be happy that it is back on a subject they believe they are top of. that's right, we've seen an election supposed be about brexit not mention it for weeks, or indeed not have it as the main thrust of the agenda, that has changed today, one reason for this has been this tightening in the polls and the suggestion that the polls and the suggestion that the campaign strategists now see that in their focus groups its brexit that can win the election for the conservatives. the notion being that they can assure up their vote, they can say to labour voters who voted for brexit, we are the only ones who can deliver brexit. they can say this into you could voters and that will help them get over the line, particularly as we are now seeing discussions, even if we find them fanciful, that could be a coalition government. so jack we are not talking about the nhs, social care, unemployment or housing. we are talking about brexit. not the best day for labour? in venice jeremy corbyn made it the theme of his speech, he chose to do that you didn't have to. it was an active decision and i think it's because labour can't run away from this issue, it will be one of the biggest this country has a red—faced, or suddenly for a hundred years. so labour can't not have a position on brexit, he had to make a big brexit speech in the final days of the campaign. conservatives think it is their strong point so labour want wa nt their strong point so labour want want to talk about this issue for the next week but they can't just run away from it and in fairness to jeremy corbyn he isn't doing that. are they clear on it? one moment they are criticising the tories were saying that no deal is better than a bad deal, does this mean that they would go for a bad deal or a compromise that wouldn't benefit anyone. the terms are so vague, one person's bad deal is another person is no deal. deal or no deal? exactly. i think everyone agrees that no deal is bad, nobody wants is to have no deal so to say that... surely that's the difference in negotiating strategy. theresa may is saying that if we get to a point with is about to deal it will be no deal because she is saying, if we don't get what we want we will walk away and using this notion that ultimately they have more to lose and we have four hours what corbyn is saying is a more conciliatory approach to negotiations basically saying we should do this in tactile way, saying we want a consensus, we wa nt way, saying we want a consensus, we want one that will work well for britain. she's taking quite a gamble in the way she's doing it, if at all. park that will be a bit of a disaster for her. ok. you will be backin disaster for her. ok. you will be back ina disaster for her. ok. you will be back in a second. one seat where brexit may make a difference is southport — a marginal liberal democrat seat where the conservatives came a close second in 2015. southport went remain in the referendum, so is the lib dems' pro—europe message going to help them keep the seat? has been finding out. is sunny south but still save for the lib dems, it hasn't swung since 1997. the tories want it, to win it, they will need workers like those in latham's bakery. the ones i've seen the most of the moment are the labour ones, the red ones. sales of reserves and gingerbread men reflect surely‘s story. she's sweet and mr corbyn. i wouldn't have voted for him at the beginning, i thought he couldn't lead me down the garden path at one time. but the more i've listened to him, and i have listened, it's right what he is saying. it comes across as honest. you don't have to shout to be heard. i have no influence over the customers whatsoever. education and the nhs decided shirley's vote although mr latham has brexit on his plate, higher import costs, worries about his polish staff and customer trepidation at the tills. it takes away his feel—good factor and when you've got the feel—good factor you wa nt you've got the feel—good factor you want to spend and buy cakes, so people are nervous of spending at the moment. and he thinks a conservative government will calm those nerves. of a great deal of admiration for theresa may. —— i have a great deal of admiration. who i think is doing a good job in difficult circumstances. theoretically all it would take for mr latham to get his wish would be several hundred lib dems switching. but pam says they will be another coalition is a thing of the past.|j was a bit annoyed when they went with the conservatives, that's what put me off them, in the coalition but you cannot hold a grudge forever. you've got to think, what is best for us, and that is best. the liberal democrats. yes. two yea rs the liberal democrats. yes. two years ago the lib dems held surfboard buttle hammered elsewhere. the number of mps dropped from 57 to only eight. —— they held surfboard but they were hammered elsewhere. but in many places that voted remain in the referendum the lib dems will hope that their pro—european stance will help win back some and possibly others, no it's the voters to decide, go for what looks familiar 01’ decide, go for what looks familiar or take decide, go for what looks familiar ortakea decide, go for what looks familiar or take a chance on change in a different direction entirely. warhurst, bbc news. now — there was a bit of a morning after the night before feel to the campaign today as politicians and pundits picked over the pieces of last night's bbc election debate. i was one of those journalists! where exactly was theresa may. she'd sent home secretary amber rudd in to bat her place — even afterjeremy corbyn‘s spectacular change of heart about participating in the debate. and it didn't take long for the prime minister's political rivals to criticise her for not taking part in the debate. the prime minister is not here tonight. she cannot be bothered so why should you. in fact bake—off is on bbc two next, why not make yourself a brew, you are not worth theresa may's time, don't give her yours. i think the first rule of leadership is to show up. she won't turn up to these debates because her campaign of sound bites is falling apart. the prime minister do not have the guts to come along this evening to tell us. blimey. well, social media quickly got in on the act, with the hashtag "where's theresa" trending on twitter, and missing may memes popping up all over the internet. lee james brown posted up this where's wally style picture, she's in the top—right hand corner, if you're having trouble spotting her. the liberal democrats tweaked their website, this is what you get when you search for a page that doesn't exist. and the twitter account for the american political drama house of cards had this advice from president underwood to the prime minister. so where was she? even mrs may's foreign secretary didn't seem entirely clear when he was asked on bbc breakfast this morning. i. i, i, i,i,i i, i, i don't know exactly where she was, ican i, i, i don't know exactly where she was, i can tell you whenever she was she was right not to be a bad debate because it was a yammering cacophony of views, many of them left, even by the bbc‘s own standards i think you would agree that that audience was notably to the left of many people in this country. the audience was of course picked by comres, but that's by the by. and the issue even came up when the prime minister was meeting voters at a west yorkshire factory this afternoon. iam sure i am sure you are fed up of talking about and but just a i am sure you are fed up of talking about and butjust a quick one, the debate last night that he didn't ta ke debate last night that he didn't take part in, you are getting quite a hard time on social media for not doing it today. having seen that do you think you made the right decision? i'm running the sort of campaign i've run throughout my career campaign i've run throughout my career which is a campaign when i get out and about and talk to people and listen to people and hear questions, that's what i'm doing today, it's what i've been doing throughout the campaign. according to boris, it was a yammering cacophony anyway, did it make sense for her to miss it, jack? he would say that! it might make sense for her political ends to avoid it because she is leading in the polls and she knows she's not good on tv. but the reality is that it looks terrible for all the other leaders to turn up except her, she looks frit as mrs thatcher would have said, a cynical ploy by a politician who knows she is winning and doesn't wa nt who knows she is winning and doesn't want to do it. but it made sense, didn't it? the argument is that if you are out in front and you are the prime minister you have nothing to gain from that in that sense. the notion is that people would literally start turning on her as we saw to a certain extent on amber rudd, and that's not a great look for a prime minister who is basically refereeing a quarrel. politically she took the decision and it wasn't going to win her any votes ultimately so she didn't take part. i kind of agree with jack to a certain extent that it doesn't look great. 0ne certain extent that it doesn't look great. one reason why it doesn't for her in particular is that there have been so many questions asked about her ability to reach out to people and be personal. she goes to factories rather than meeting voters in the way that corbyn does and i think that is what social media has tapped into. but the difference with this campaign, social media plays a bigger role thanit social media plays a bigger role than it has done on previous campaigns in the past so it quickly sta rts campaigns in the past so it quickly starts trends and the more they build in momentum the more difficult it looks for her. so where was she? we still don't know. when she was asked about it the day before she said she had to spend time thinking about brexit. i mean, come on, that's ludicrous. and then she says i want to be out campaigning on the ground and none of it is true, she wasn't doing an event last night, she could easily have turned up if you'd wanted. i find it a bit embarrassing that the prime minister can't... embarrassing that the prime minister can't. .. except embarrassing that the prime minister can't... except that embarrassing that the prime minister can't. .. except that she did send amber road. uninteresting strategy because we have seen amber rudd put out again and again as the spokesman for the prime minister —— that is an interesting strategy. that in the game isa interesting strategy. that in the game is a gamble in itself. a number of people have suggested that she might even become the next prime minister after theresa may, should things go pear shaped. she probably did a betterjob than it theresa may to be honest but that is because theresa may isn't good at this kind of thing and her advisers know it and that was why it should was too scared to do it. we've heard she was at downing street so maybe she was cooking dinnerfor philip. at downing street so maybe she was cooking dinner for philip. she was askedif cooking dinner for philip. she was asked if she had watched it and she dodged the question twice, she wouldn't even answer that straight. we'll leave that for a few seconds. one of the most closely watched contests in this election will be in gower in south wales — the most marginal seat in the country. the conservatives won the seat from labour last time around — but by just 27 votes. bethan lewis has been to meet the candidates. mumbles, linking swansea to the gower peninsula. no sign of the election here amongst the half—term busyness, but this is the uk's most marginal seat. the conservatives' election taxi is back on the road, only two years after former policeman and assembly member byron davies took the seat the biggest shock of the welsh results last time. in this election he says he's not taking any notice of the opinion polls. i get my vibes off the street. and i have to say, my vibes are good. unsurprisingly brexit is high on the agenda. in the last 2015 election we had something in the region ofjust under 5000 people who voted for ukip, many, many of those that i have spoken to have said that they can only see theresa may as the person who will now take it forward. tara, thank you. ta—ta. out and about in gorseinon it's another day of doorknocking for labour's tonia antoniaz. she's a former welsh rugby international battling to take gower back for the party which held it for decades. any lessons you can take from the rugby pitch to politics do you think? well i think stamina is one of them. she says she's seen real examples of poverty in the constituency. seven years ago when we had the conservatives in westminster, my life changed massively. i'm a schoolteacher and i was on my own and basically financially yes, i do have a good wage, but i was feeling the pinch. ukip were third in gower last time but what's the message now we are leaving the european union? i believe ukip has done extremely well by winning the referendum, but it is only an advisory referendum. all we have had since is the triggering of article 50. that alone is simply a useless piece of paper unless it is acted upon and i believe only a strong ukip vote will achieve that. the lib dems came fifth here last time. they say health, education, even fly—tipping are being raised by voters. council and assembly responsibilities, but still relevant to this election, says their candidate. the monies come from the uk government, as lib dems for example we are pledging to put a penny on income tax to allow for more monies to go to the nhs and to be given to the welsh government to allocate in that way. harri roberts, i'm your plaid cymru parliamentary candidate. for plaid cymru as well it is a challenge to get their voice heard, but they argue voting plaid here can make a difference. labour are so disunited and ineffective and the tories represent nothing that will gain for wales. there may be a bit of tactical voting going on after such a small majority last time, but i'm absolutely convinced that the bigger the plaid cymru vote, the more the other parties will have to listen to us. past experience suggests in this constituency more than any other every vote really does count. and here is the list of candidates standing in the gower consistency. now ellie is back with her balls. she has been on a tour of the uk during this campaign. with her balls. today's she's been to the seaside resort of skegness to ask people if they've made their mind up yet on who they will vote for in a week's time. music: mind blowing decisions have you decided who to vote for? she's decided. labour. i've always voted labour. i decided about a week ago. i decided it better to keep what we've got. why are you undecided? because they are all as bad as one another and they make promises and it doesn't come off. will you vote? i haven't decided. he hasn't decided if he's going to make a decision! i decide on the day, i'lljust go and put an x on whoever. we want to do what is best for the disabled and we are not yet sure which party will do that, aren't we, thomas. you've decided to be undecided, fair enough. because of the weak leadership of the labour party of decided to vote for theresa may for the first time ever, it's a break with family tradition that you have to do what's best for this country and jeremy corbyn isn't best. he knows what he's doing, theresa may just once best. he knows what he's doing, theresa mayjust once and for herself, i don't think she considering anyone else. but iraq shejust considering anyone else. but iraq she just wants it for herself. there's been too much on the news for me to take it in, that's why, i think. otherwise i would decide if i could understand it a bit more. i've decided for quite a while, just listening to the policies of the parties, forget the fighting between their politicians, it's policies that's important. i've done by post already. improperly decided. yes. they all in each other‘s pockets, it doesn't matter who is in government, it doesn't affect me or my wages my house. you don't think it does? i will vote for someone, house. you don't think it does? i will vote forsomeone, i'm house. you don't think it does? i will vote for someone, i'm not sure who. do you think you will make a decision? eventually but for now we are just having fun. i can see. the good people of skegness and those on holiday here have made their decisions, the trouble is, i can't decide if it is the decideds or the undecided dexter who won the mood box today. the one thing i have decided is that i need an ice cream. thank you, skegness. there's too much on the news to take it all in. i'm with her. ellie and her balls there. we've all learnt to be a little wary of the opinion polls after recent elections — and now there might be even more reason. the last week's seen them predicting widely different outcomes — from a huge tory majority to a hung parliament. joining us isjoe twyman, head of political and social research at the pollsters, yougov. joining caroline and jack. it's good to see you. hi. yougov, what's the latest thinking on what will happen next week. well we are not thinking about what is happening next week... about what's happening now. we've conducted estimates for seat distribution based on what the polling is showing at the moment. and that's as we are looking at between 275 and 345 seats of the tories. they need 226 for majority so tories. they need 226 for majority so it could be a hung parliament, it could be a small majority for the conservatives. but on current polling is not the sort of three figure majority that theresa may and the tories hoped for at the start of the tories hoped for at the start of the campaign when the election was called. so a definite shift. have you had a poll done since the debate last night? knox 's last night, we have updated our statistical model but the next poll will be out in the next couple of days. —— not this la st next couple of days. —— not this last night. since last night several thousand new survey is going into the model replacing some from a week ago, it is all complicated but the upshot is that didn't change significantly. so why the polls so all over the place? that depends how you mean, all over the place, yes there has been a since the start of there has been a since the start of the campaign, not surprising given that in 2015 we had five years to look forward to the delight of an election and the last year that was one long campaign. this time we had seven weeks to get to know the people, their policies and bouts of thing. so perhaps not surprising that we've seen a lot of movement but generally speaking we have seen seen the gap closing. the question is, how far has that gap closed and thatis is, how far has that gap closed and that is where there is some difference. if you look at the underlying data, who people are voting for, when asked, if there was an election tomorrow, would you vote for, that data is pretty much the same for all the pollsters. it shows a small lead the conservatives. whoever you talk to, which method you use, that is what it is showing. the reason the difference is when adjustments are made for turnout. inaudible elements to this, which party people support and whether or not they will turn out to vote. two equally important elements, the adjustments made what is causing the difference. i write. caroline. made what is causing the difference. iwrite. caroline. we made what is causing the difference. i write. caroline. we had shadow foreign secretary emily thornberry said there would be no deal in the event of a hung parliament. is that creeping into their minds that there could be a hung parliament. think that's the message they need to get out because we don't want a rerun of 2015 with a story woods about whether there would be a labour— snp coalition and that was the message we saw the tories drumming home time. so labour wants to get that message out as early as possible that they want to do a deal with the snp so they can circumnavigate that argument. but there seem to have been suggestions that mr corbyn hasn't run ruled out a coalition so we are not sure what it all means and we'll learn more about this coalition of chaos notion as we move further towards polling day, i am sure. are you hearing that they are thinking that there could be a hung parliament? they've always thought there was a chance of getting that, they were from such a low base, it was, what can we achieve in a snap election with only weeks to campaign and certainly some people in the labour team were hoping they could dojust labour team were hoping they could do just enough to deny today made that majority and then who knows what happens, she'd have to resign so what happens, she'd have to resign so you what happens, she'd have to resign so you won a what happens, she'd have to resign so you won a big victoryjust by doing that. i must say spent a lot of time speaking to candidates from the labour and the conservative party, people inside the campaigns today, and i can't find many people who don't think the tories will win. everyone i speak to, knocking on doors, this is not scientific, it's anecdotal, mps making phone calls all day and they say, i don't think it's going to happen and that is from both sides. great to have you all in. thank you forjoining us. that's it for the election wrap today. we'll be back at the same time tomorrow. thank you for watching. huge contrasts in the weather today, we've seen clad and train other scotla nd we've seen clad and train other scotland and northern ireland and tim rogers in the western isles of 40 degrees, lots of stjohn of england and wales, 34 degrees in the south—eastern corner. another warm night for southern england and wales, the southerly breeze not moving far but quite a wet night for scotla nd moving far but quite a wet night for scotland and northern ireland, the rain is creeping across the sea, just moving into england and wales by the end of the night. temperatures 12 degrees in glasgow and belfast, for most of england and wales 14 or 15 degrees so another warm night. and warm start to the day as well. we will see this area of rain slowly move from west to east, the south—east at risk of thunderstorms into the afternoon as temperatures build up to 25, 26, maybe 27 degrees in the south—eastern corner, certainly a warm afternoon, for the west, more like 17 or 18 degrees. quite apt coming after the weather because in the next few moments, president trump will announce whether america will stick to the paris climate accord or not. he is due to make an announcement there. the podium is ready in the rose garden at the white house to speak to the world's press. we willjohn our colleagues at bbc world in washington to follow this developing story when it happens. —— we willjoin our colleagues. the reuters news agency is reporting that it believes that america will withdraw from that climate agreement. remember it was signed in paris in 2015 whether developing and developed nations of the world would sign up to an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions allowing the temperature of the world to rise no more than two celsius over the coming years. but it was a campaign pledge from president trump that america would pull out of the deal because he believes it will hit american jobs and american growth and it was a big campaign pledge when he ran for the white house. the chinese, the british, and the germans, the european union in general, they have all made it clear that it would be a shame but they will push ahead if president trump does decide to pull america out of that deal. remember that the united states is the world's second biggest polluter, behind china. and we can see steve bannon, one of the close advisers to the president. he's certainly on record as being seen as a climate change sceptic. but everything is in place for this decision to beat announced in the next few minutes —— to be announced. whether or not america will stay in that hard fought paris climate agreement. the world has been waiting for this ever since the election campaign. we will find out if donald trump will put into practice what he said he would do and take america out of the deal. let's go to washington. i'm catty ca m e deal. let's go to washington. i'm catty came with the bbc news special on the paris climate agreement, the white house is pulling out of the paris accord, donald trump will make his formal announcement any moment now in the rose garden of the white house. he is expected to say america can geta house. he is expected to say america can get a better deal. china tells the european union that it will honour its commitments. translation: china will implement promises made in the paris agreement, the move towards the goal is step—by—step steadfastly. but of course we also hope to do this in cooperation with others. the un secretary general appeal to the president and to america not to leave the agreement saying the cost will be high for generations to come.