Transcripts For BBCNEWS Global Questions 20240707 : comparem

now on bbc news, it's time for a special programme... global questions: the taiwan, china conflict. hello, welcome to global questions with me, zeinab badawi, from liberty square in taipei, the capital city of taiwan. the main island of taiwan lies about 160 kilometres across the waters from china. in the past few months, china has stepped up its military exercises, and fired missiles over taiwan, in growing tensions with the government here. the chinese president, xijinping, has reiterated the claim that taiwan belongs to china, and he says he does not rule out the use of force to take it over. meanwhile, the united states, which supports taiwan, has hardened its position with president biden saying he would send american troops to defend it. so, if china did invade taiwan, it would be a conflict with huge global dimensions, one that involves the two superpowers, the united states and china. that is global questions, taiwan, a flashpoint with china and the world? applause welcome to the taipei new horizon building. this is a lively and buzzing cultural centre in the heart of the city. i have a panel of top voices from across the region who are going to be answering questions from our audience here in taiwan. first of all, let's bring you this brief overview of the history of what is going on here in taiwan. today, taiwan is both a powerhouse for the global economy and the focus for the global economy and the focus for an increasingly intense adversarial rivalry between china and the united states. he reviews the armed forces _ and the united states. he reviews the armed forces of _ and the united states. he reviews the armed forces of china - and the united states. he reviews the armed forces of china from i and the united states. he reviewsl the armed forces of china from his island _ the armed forces of china from his island stronghold. _ the armed forces of china from his island stronghold. you _ the armed forces of china from his island stronghold. you can- the armed forces of china from his island stronghold. you can act- the armed forces of china from his island stronghold. you can act ever since _ island stronghold. you can act ever since the _ island stronghold. you can act ever since the end — island stronghold. you can act ever since the end of— island stronghold. you can act ever since the end of the _ island stronghold. you can act ever since the end of the civil— island stronghold. you can act ever since the end of the civil war- island stronghold. you can act ever since the end of the civil war in- since the end of the civil war in 1949. _ since the end of the civil war in 1949, ., ., �* , since the end of the civil war in 1949, ., ., �*, , ., , 1949, when... taiwan's status has been fiercely _ 1949, when... taiwan's status has been fiercely contested. _ 1949, when... taiwan's status has been fiercely contested. reign - been fiercely contested. reign welcome to free china. free china, what a difference a word makes. taiwan has been isolated. to the communists, it is a province of china that can and will be restored to beijing's. to its inhabitants, it is an outpost of democracy, suggesting an alternative future for china as a whole. to the united states, taiwan has been a useful ally, first as part of an anti—communist front in the cold war, and now as our partner in spain being china's emerging status as a superpower rival. despite its economic and technological process the status quo in taiwan is under pressure. it was thought it would reunite peacefully with the mainland, but now you have china saying there are storm clouds on the horizon, the president not ruling out the use of force to unify taiwan, you have many of the people here saying they want independence, a full and long term separation from the mainland, and you have the us putting pressure on this country to withhold high—tech from china. taiwan has become a vital player in the semiconductor sector, producing many of the world's microchips. the prospect of serious disruption to this business, whether through war or blockade, could trigger global economic disaster. the us is now asking taiwan not to share some of its advanced technology with china. add to that american warnings that the people's republic is exhilarating preparations for invasion, and it is clear that the piece of the wider world could now be at stake. let piece of the wider world could now be at stake-— piece of the wider world could now be at stake. ., . i. ., be at stake. let me introduce you to my wonderful _ be at stake. let me introduce you to my wonderful panel. _ be at stake. let me introduce you to my wonderful panel. this _ be at stake. let me introduce you to my wonderful panel. this is - be at stake. let me introduce you to my wonderful panel. this is a - be at stake. let me introduce you to l my wonderful panel. this is a member of the legislative assembly and director of international affairs for taiwan's ruling party, the dpp. he is also a member of the diplomatic committee that oversees foreign policy in taiwan. this is the international affairs director of the opposition chinese nationalist party, the kmt, and is the kmt�*s representative to the united states. william stanton was a us diplomat for nearly 35 years, and is one of america's top experts on taiwan. he is now a professor at a university here in taiwan. this is a chinese dissident in exile in taiwan, and is also part of the human rights commission. this woman was born in taipei, herfamily moved from mainland china, and she is currently senior china analyst at the conflict resolution think tank the conflict resolution think tank the icg. terrific to have you all with us. that is our panel, please give them a warm round of applause. applause. you, too, can join applause. you, too, canjoin the conversation. this is ourfirst you, too, canjoin the conversation. this is our first question. you, too, canjoin the conversation. this is ourfirst question. charles, what is your question? this is our first question. charles, what is your question?— this is our first question. charles, what is your question? what you make ofthe what is your question? what you make of the fact that — what is your question? what you make of the fact that while _ what is your question? what you make of the fact that while taiwan _ what is your question? what you make of the fact that while taiwan is - of the fact that while taiwan is likely to be a flashpoint for china and the west, the media and the public in taiwan are rather indifferent to the threat of the situation? bike since you are from the ruling party, you can kick off. i would not use the term indifferent, i would i would not use the term indifferent, iwould not i would not use the term indifferent, i would not say people are indifferent. taiwan has been living under threat for decades, but is a difficult balancing act for the government in taiwan. 0n the one hand, we need to raise people's awareness and preparedness for military conflict in the region, but in the other hand we do not want to scare people, because that is what china wants. scare people, because that is what china wante— china wants. you are from the opposition- — china wants. you are from the opposition. when _ china wants. you are from the opposition. when the - china wants. you are from the opposition. when the outside | china wants. you are from the - opposition. when the outside world had raised the _ opposition. when the outside world had raised the concern _ opposition. when the outside world had raised the concern of _ opposition. when the outside world had raised the concern of the - had raised the concern of the chinese — had raised the concern of the chinese military threat for the polls — chinese military threat for the polls in— chinese military threat for the polls in taiwan show that most of the people in taiwan are not considering the necessary vigilance is important. fire considering the necessary vigilance is important-— is important. are you suggesting the are is important. are you suggesting they are being — is important. are you suggesting they are being too _ is important. are you suggesting they are being too complacent? | is important. are you suggesting| they are being too complacent? i think people are aware of the situation, we need that kind of bowler— situation, we need that kind of popular support in order to raise the awareness and also increase the defence _ the awareness and also increase the defence budget.— the awareness and also increase the defence budget. awareness of what? awareness of — defence budget. awareness of what? awareness of the _ defence budget. awareness of what? awareness of the possible _ defence budget. awareness of what? awareness of the possible chinese i awareness of the possible chinese military— awareness of the possible chinese military coercion or possible invasion _ military coercion or possible invasion. the external danger posted on taiwan _ invasion. the external danger posted on taiwan. 50 invasion. the external danger posted on taiwan. ,, invasion. the external danger posted on taiwan. ., , . . on taiwan. so you do see that as a ve real on taiwan. so you do see that as a very real threat. _ on taiwan. so you do see that as a very realthreat. i— on taiwan. so you do see that as a very real threat. i think _ on taiwan. so you do see that as a | very real threat. i think sometimes --eole very real threat. i think sometimes pebble have _ very real threat. i think sometimes people have such _ very real threat. i think sometimes people have such a _ very real threat. i think sometimes people have such a good _ very real threat. i think sometimes people have such a good life - very real threat. i think sometimes people have such a good life here, | people have such a good life here, and they— people have such a good life here, and they enjoy _ people have such a good life here, and they enjoy their— people have such a good life here, and they enjoy their life _ people have such a good life here, and they enjoy their life so - people have such a good life here, and they enjoy their life so much, i and they enjoy their life so much, that i_ and they enjoy their life so much, that i think— and they enjoy their life so much, that i think they— and they enjoy their life so much, that i think they don't _ and they enjoy their life so much, that i think they don't think - and they enjoy their life so much, i that i think they don't think enough about— that i think they don't think enough about what— that i think they don't think enough about what the _ that i think they don't think enough about what the potential _ that i think they don't think enough about what the potential risks - that i think they don't think enough about what the potential risks are i about what the potential risks are and threats — about what the potential risks are and threats are. _ about what the potential risks are and threats are. in _ about what the potential risks are and threats are. in my— about what the potential risks are and threats are. in my class, - about what the potential risks are and threats are. in my class, i- about what the potential risks are and threats are. in my class, i tryj and threats are. in my class, i try to make — and threats are. in my class, i try to make nty— and threats are. in my class, i try to make my own _ and threats are. in my class, i try to make my own students - and threats are. in my class, i try to make my own students aware i and threats are. in my class, i try. to make my own students aware of what _ to make my own students aware of what may— to make my own students aware of what may be — to make my own students aware of what may be coming, _ to make my own students aware of what may be coming, and - to make my own students aware of what may be coming, and for- to make my own students aware of |what may be coming, and for that| what may be coming, and for that reason _ what may be coming, and for that reason i _ what may be coming, and for that reason i encourage _ what may be coming, and for that reason i encourage students - what may be coming, and for that reason i encourage students to. what may be coming, and for that i reason i encourage students to think more _ reason i encourage students to think more about— reason i encourage students to think more about supporting _ reason i encourage students to think more about supporting the _ reason i encourage students to think more about supporting the military. i reason i encourage students to think | more about supporting the military. | more about supporting the military. to some _ more about supporting the military. to some extent— more about supporting the military. to some extent i— more about supporting the military. to some extent i think— more about supporting the military. to some extent i think the - more about supporting the military. i to some extent i think the taiwanese population is accustomed to these threats for better or worse. there is another strain of that that we have not touched upon, which is there is a degree of fatalism, sometimes when you speak to the taiwanese, there is an idea that we are caught up in this power struggle between two major powers, and there's not much we can do about it. there's not much we can do to stand up there's not much we can do to stand up to the chinese military, and that i think is a thing that the government is trying to work on to read's consciousness around this, and to tell the taiwanese people that in fact there are things that can be done. that in fact there are things that can be done-— can be done. you are one of the leaders of _ can be done. you are one of the leaders of the _ can be done. you are one of the leaders of the tiananmen - can be done. you are one of the | leaders of the tiananmen square student protests. you may still be china's second most wanted person, and you are now a dissident in exile from the community who have had many human rights abuses perpetrated against them. you go round taiwan and talk to people, what is your response to the question? i and talk to people, what is your response to the question? l and talk to people, what is your response to the question? i would not say there _ response to the question? i would not say there is _ response to the question? i would not say there is indifference, - response to the question? i would not say there is indifference, but i not say there is indifference, but especially — not say there is indifference, but especially after russia has invaded ukraine, _ especially after russia has invaded ukraine, it — especially after russia has invaded ukraine, it becomes the centre of the topic, — ukraine, it becomes the centre of the topic, and everyone is talking about— the topic, and everyone is talking about who — the topic, and everyone is talking about who is next, but i sense there is a difference between taiwanese people's— is a difference between taiwanese people's mind compared with the world _ people's mind compared with the world media. the world media seems to like _ world media. the world media seems to like to _ world media. the world media seems to like to talk about a possible invasion— to like to talk about a possible invasion much more than the taiwanese people who have been living _ taiwanese people who have been living under this constant threat for more — living under this constant threat for more than seven decades. people, of course, _ for more than seven decades. people, of course, are — for more than seven decades. people, of course, are talking. indifferent would _ of course, are talking. indifferent would be — of course, are talking. indifferent would be a — of course, are talking. indifferent would be a wrong word to describe taiwanese — would be a wrong word to describe taiwanese people's mentality, but i think we _ taiwanese people's mentality, but i think we are different from the world, — think we are different from the world, especially world media. let's face it. _ world, especially world media. let's face it. it— world, especially world media. let's face it. it is— world, especially world media. let's face it, it is an interesting topic to talk— face it, it is an interesting topic to talk about. fire face it, it is an interesting topic to talk about.— to talk about. are you saying i shouldn't _ to talk about. are you saying i shouldn't be _ to talk about. are you saying i shouldn't be here? _ shouldn't be here? laughter are you saying we are making too much of it? let are you saying we are making too much of it?— are you saying we are making too much of it? , . . ~ much of it? let me be clear, i think there is a clear _ much of it? let me be clear, i think there is a clear threat _ much of it? let me be clear, i think there is a clear threat that - much of it? let me be clear, i think there is a clear threat that the - there is a clear threat that the chinese — there is a clear threat that the chinese communist party is imposing to taiwan, _ chinese communist party is imposing to taiwan, and there are hundreds or thousands— to taiwan, and there are hundreds or thousands of— to taiwan, and there are hundreds or thousands of warheads pointing to taiwan— thousands of warheads pointing to taiwan to — thousands of warheads pointing to taiwan to support that threat. knowing — taiwan to support that threat. knowing the chinese communist party, i also knowing the chinese communist party, i also know— knowing the chinese communist party, i also know they want to exaggerate that threat as much as possible, and then the _ that threat as much as possible, and then the world media could act as an accomplice _ then the world media could act as an accomplice on that. so then the world media could act as an accomplice on that.— accomplice on that. so we are no accomplices? _ accomplice on that. so we are no accomplices? you _ accomplice on that. so we are no accomplices? you could - accomplice on that. so we are no accomplices? you could be. - accomplice on that. so we are no accomplices? you could be. if. accomplice on that. so we are no| accomplices? you could be. if you hel the accomplices? you could be. if you help the chinese _ accomplices? you could be. if you help the chinese communist - accomplices? you could be. if youj help the chinese communist party exaggerate their threat. at the end, the threat _ exaggerate their threat. at the end, the threat only works when it became a real— the threat only works when it became a real threat— the threat only works when it became a real threat to the taiwanese people. — a real threat to the taiwanese people, and the taiwanese people, yesm _ people, and the taiwanese people, es... �* ., ., . ., people, and the taiwanese people, es... ., ., . ., yes... i'm going to have to take issue with _ yes... i'm going to have to take issue with you _ yes... i'm going to have to take issue with you here, _ yes... i'm going to have to take issue with you here, it - yes... i'm going to have to take issue with you here, it is - yes... i'm going to have to take issue with you here, it is not. yes... i'm going to have to take | issue with you here, it is not the media. it is always easy to say that we are exaggerating and helping iran enforce his threat, but you have the chief of the national security bureau here in taiwan, who has been making very interesting comments, and he is seeing a military invasion of taiwan could take place, and the taiwan's security is always on the lookout for any signs of a possible invasion. we are not making this up and exaggerating it. i’m invasion. we are not making this up and exaggerating it.— and exaggerating it. i'm not saying ou're and exaggerating it. i'm not saying you're making _ and exaggerating it. i'm not saying you're making it— and exaggerating it. i'm not saying you're making it up, _ and exaggerating it. i'm not saying you're making it up, i— and exaggerating it. i'm not saying you're making it up, i am - and exaggerating it. i'm not saying you're making it up, i am only - you're making it up, iam only saying— you're making it up, iam only saying the— you're making it up, iam only saying the chinese communist party, whom _ saying the chinese communist party, whom i_ saying the chinese communist party, whom i happen to know a little better— whom i happen to know a little better than most common folk because of my background, they are not nationalists. using any words like communism, socialism, nationalism, patriotism. _ communism, socialism, nationalism, patriotism, to describe this regime, the communist party regime, it is giving _ the communist party regime, it is giving them too much credit. they want _ giving them too much credit. they want their— giving them too much credit. they want their empty threats, which of course _ want their empty threats, which of course are — want their empty threats, which of course are not completely empty, but they want _ course are not completely empty, but they want the threat to be amplified as much— they want the threat to be amplified as much as — they want the threat to be amplified as much as possible. all i'm saying is, don't _ as much as possible. all i'm saying is, don't help them.— is, don't help them. what is your view on your— is, don't help them. what is your view on your own _ is, don't help them. what is your view on your own question? - is, don't help them. what is your view on your own question? i - is, don't help them. what is your i view on your own question? i asked the question _ view on your own question? i asked the question because _ view on your own question? i asked the question because i _ view on your own question? i asked the question because i think- view on your own question? i asked the question because i think it - view on your own question? i asked the question because i think it is i view on your own question? i asked the question because i think it is a l the question because i think it is a fact _ the question because i think it is a fact. taiwanese _ the question because i think it is a fact. taiwanese people _ the question because i think it is a fact. taiwanese people are - fact. taiwanese people are indifferent _ fact. taiwanese people are indifferent compared - fact. taiwanese people are indifferent compared to . fact. taiwanese people are| indifferent compared to the fact. taiwanese people are - indifferent compared to the western media _ indifferent compared to the western media and _ indifferent compared to the western media and western _ indifferent compared to the western media and western people. - indifferent compared to the western media and western people. [- indifferent compared to the western media and western people. infant. indifferent compared to the western media and western people. i want to net the media and western people. i want to get the next — media and western people. i want to get the next question. _ media and western people. i want to get the next question. why - media and western people. i want to get the next question. why and - media and western people. i want to get the next question. why and how| get the next question. why and how would the russian _ get the next question. why and how would the russian invasion - get the next question. why and how would the russian invasion of- would the russian invasion of ukraine — would the russian invasion of ukraine encourage _ would the russian invasion of ukraine encourage china - would the russian invasion of ukraine encourage china to. would the russian invasion of- ukraine encourage china to invade taiwan? _ ukraine encourage china to invade taiwan? in — ukraine encourage china to invade taiwan? ., ., ukraine encourage china to invade taiwan? ., ._ , , . taiwan? in one way, the russian decision to _ taiwan? in one way, the russian decision to go — taiwan? in one way, the russian decision to go into _ taiwan? in one way, the russian decision to go into ukraine - taiwan? in one way, the russian| decision to go into ukraine might encourage china to do the same when they see that the west, nato, the united states, are only providing weapon systems, but not committing troops. also, we have to be very alert, china can learn the lesson from the russian actions. china would be more cautious when they commit troops, they will try hard not to make the same mistakes. for instance, operationally, technically, or given especially the ukraine remaining having power supply. if china were to do that to taiwan, they would shut down taiwan's electric power, and disable our wide service, our wi—fi service. —— our web service. they encouraged them as well, and discourage them, both sit together. i them as well, and discourage them, both sit together.— both sit together. i think we should not be making _ both sit together. i think we should not be making suggestions - both sit together. i think we should not be making suggestions about i both sit together. i think we should i not be making suggestions about what the chinese might do to shut down taiwan _ the chinese might do to shut down taiwan. that would be my biggest comment~ — taiwan. that would be my biggest comment. i think there are a lot of things— comment. i think there are a lot of things that — comment. i think there are a lot of things that taiwan can do, that are positive _ things that taiwan can do, that are positive to — things that taiwan can do, that are positive to help prepare for the attack — positive to help prepare for the attack. , ., . , attack. the question was with the russian example _ attack. the question was with the russian example serve _ attack. the question was with the russian example serve as - attack. the question was with the russian example serve as a - attack. the question was with the | russian example serve as a model attack. the question was with the . russian example serve as a model in any shape orform russian example serve as a model in any shape or form for president xi jinping? i any shape or form for president xi jininu ? p, any shape or form for president xi jinina? . . , any shape or form for president xi jinuin? . . ., . jinping? i have always thought that president xi _ jinping? i have always thought that president xi jinping _ jinping? i have always thought that president xi jinping would - jinping? i have always thought that president xi jinping would not - jinping? i have always thought that president xi jinping would not want president xi jinping would not want to do— president xi jinping would not want to do anything that is an imitation of what _ to do anything that is an imitation of what vladimir putin has done, because — of what vladimir putin has done, because he would want to of what vladimir putin has done, because he would want to show of what vladimir putin has done, because he would want to show that it is his _ because he would want to show that it is his own— because he would want to show that it is his own development. i think he would — it is his own development. i think he would want to do it in a different— he would want to do it in a different way, in his own time, and i different way, in his own time, and i don't _ different way, in his own time, and idon't think— different way, in his own time, and i don't think he would follow the idon't think he would follow the vladimir— i don't think he would follow the vladimir putin model,... the i don't think he would follow the vladimir putin model,... the war in ukraine is ongoing. _ vladimir putin model,... the war in ukraine is ongoing. it _ vladimir putin model,... the war in ukraine is ongoing. it depends - vladimir putin model,... the war in ukraine is ongoing. it depends on l ukraine is ongoing. it depends on the final result. if the war is a disaster for russia, then the final result. if the war is a disasterfor russia, then probably xijinping will think it is disasterfor russia, then probably xi jinping will think it is very dangerous to initiate a war against taiwan. i dangerous to initiate a war against taiwan. ~ g , dangerous to initiate a war against taiwan. ~' . , . taiwan. i think xi jinping will draw a aood taiwan. i think xi jinping will draw a good lesson _ taiwan. i think xi jinping will draw a good lesson of— taiwan. i think xi jinping will draw a good lesson of putin's _ taiwan. i think xi jinping will draw a good lesson of putin's invasion, | a good lesson of putin's invasion, that it _ a good lesson of putin's invasion, that it will— a good lesson of putin's invasion, that it will not be that easy. that is the _ that it will not be that easy. that is the most — that it will not be that easy. that is the most important lesson that they will— is the most important lesson that they will draw. taiwan is an island. if they will draw. taiwan is an island. if the _ they will draw. taiwan is an island. if the ccp— they will draw. taiwan is an island. if the ccp launch a war against taiwan, — if the ccp launch a war against taiwan, a _ if the ccp launch a war against taiwan, a democracy where the president— taiwan, a democracy where the president cannotjust taiwan, a democracy where the president cannot just say, taiwan, a democracy where the president cannotjust say, ok, i surrender. _ president cannotjust say, ok, i surrender, they cannot. it has to be approved _ surrender, they cannot. it has to be approved by— surrender, they cannot. it has to be approved by parliament and the that alone, _ approved by parliament and the that alone, making the success of the invasion— alone, making the success of the invasion of— alone, making the success of the invasion of taiwan, it has to be total— invasion of taiwan, it has to be total occupation. will invasion of taiwan, it has to be total occupation.— invasion of taiwan, it has to be total occupation. will that be that hard? 1.4 billion _ total occupation. will that be that hard? 1.4 billion chinese... - total occupation. will that be that hard? 1.4 billion chinese... you l hard? 1.4 billion chinese... you have 23.5 million taiwanese. it is 0.4% of the land area of china, they have an army of about 2 million, the army about 170,000, it will be a walkover. we army about 170,000, it will be a walkover. ~ ., , , army about 170,000, it will be a walkover. ., , , ., walkover. we were told because of the russia ukraine _ walkover. we were told because of the russia ukraine warfare - walkover. we were told because of the russia ukraine warfare that. walkover. we were told because of the russia ukraine warfare that we have learned a lot about military warfare — have learned a lot about military warfare. to occupy taiwan completely, to force this country, this democracy to surrender, they need _ this democracy to surrender, they need about— this democracy to surrender, they need about 2 million boots on the ground _ need about 2 million boots on the ground. that is how you need to force _ ground. that is how you need to force 23 — ground. that is how you need to force 23 million people to surrender. it is almost impossible to imagine — surrender. it is almost impossible to imagine 500,000 of them come across _ to imagine 500,000 of them come across i_ to imagine 500,000 of them come across. i think xi jinping learned that lesson from the failure of the russian _ that lesson from the failure of the russian invasion. | that lesson from the failure of the russian invasion.— russian invasion. i think on the whole, russian invasion. i think on the whole. the _ russian invasion. i think on the whole, the russian _ russian invasion. i think on the whole, the russian invasion - russian invasion. i think on the whole, the russian invasion of| whole, the russian invasion of ukraine and its failure is on the home make beige and cautious about the invasion of taiwan, for three reasons, one being the complexity of an amphibious invasion of taiwan is much higher than a land invasion which russia has carried out. they have to cross a 180 kilometre body of water, and in that passage there will be many moments where they are very vulnerable to taiwan's missile systems. economically, we have seen that the west has gone after russia and a comprehensive way. we have not seen the outcome of the war, i agree with that, they are yet to be seen, but china has taken note of the way that west has sanctioned russia, and thirdly, the strategic environment has changed. countries are much more worried and aware of the potential of a major war, and worried and aware of the potential ofa majorwar, and i worried and aware of the potential of a major war, and i think that is changing calculations in regional governments. it changing calculations in regional governments-— changing calculations in regional covernments. . , , . governments. it all seems that you think it would — governments. it all seems that you think it would discourage _ governments. it all seems that you think it would discourage china - think it would discourage china rather than encourage it to invade taiwan. let's go to our next question. taiwan. let's go to our next question-— taiwan. let's go to our next question. taiwan. let's go to our next cuestion. g , ., , ., question. my question is, do you think xi jinping — question. my question is, do you think xi jinping would _ question. my question is, do you think xi jinping would be - question. my question is, do you think xi jinping would be afraid i question. my question is, do you | think xi jinping would be afraid of think xi jinping would be afraid of a backlash— think xi jinping would be afraid of a backlash from _ think xi jinping would be afraid of a backlash from his _ think xi jinping would be afraid of a backlash from his own - think xi jinping would be afraid of a backlash from his own citizens. think xi jinping would be afraid of| a backlash from his own citizens if he invades — a backlash from his own citizens if he invades taiwan? _ a backlash from his own citizens if he invades taiwan? [— a backlash from his own citizens if he invades taiwan?— he invades taiwan? i think for the chinese communist _ he invades taiwan? i think for the chinese communist party, - he invades taiwan? i think for the chinese communist party, their. he invades taiwan? i think for the i chinese communist party, their hold on power is their top priority, period. to the extent they have tied unification of taiwan to china's rise, and that in turn is tied to the party's legitimacy domestically. they have made it a very important political objective for them, but at the same time the dilemma for them is that achieving this objective has become much harder. the risks of an invasion that goes south, or take some much longer than they want it to, a protracted war in which a lot of chinese sons and daughters lives are being taken, and a lot of these are being taken, and a lot of these are single children and families, of course, is asking a huge sacrifice of the chinese. 50 course, is asking a huge sacrifice of the chinese.— course, is asking a huge sacrifice of the chinese. so there could be a backlash. backlash _ of the chinese. so there could be a backlash. backlash from _ of the chinese. so there could be a backlash. backlash from their - of the chinese. so there could be a backlash. backlash from their own | backlash. backlash from their own citizens? it backlash. backlash from their own citizens? , , . ~ ., citizens? it depends what kind of war we are _ citizens? it depends what kind of war we are having. _ citizens? it depends what kind of war we are having. if— citizens? it depends what kind of war we are having. if there - citizens? it depends what kind of war we are having. if there is - citizens? it depends what kind of war we are having. if there is a l citizens? it depends what kind of. war we are having. if there is a war of attrition, — war we are having. if there is a war of attrition, there could be a lot of attrition, there could be a lot of things— of attrition, there could be a lot of things that happen within china. ithink— of things that happen within china. i think what leaders in beijing have considered is their own survival and the regime's survival. they have to enforce _ the regime's survival. they have to enforce themselves to make that decision, — enforce themselves to make that decision, and then they open a pandora's_ decision, and then they open a pandora's box. that is the decision they face _ pandora's box. that is the decision they face if— pandora's box. that is the decision they face if they start a war. and also of the _ they face if they start a war. and also of the military _ they face if they start a war. sixth. also of the military operation and invasion against taiwan, if that would hurt, another goal of the rejuvenation of the chinese nation. probably that will keep them thinking more than twice about a military operation. benjaminjackson, benjamin jackson, your question. what do benjaminjackson, your question. what do the panel members say to the taiwanese _ what do the panel members say to the taiwanese who — what do the panel members say to the taiwanese who feel— what do the panel members say to the taiwanese who feel they— what do the panel members say to the taiwanese who feel they share - what do the panel members say to the taiwanese who feel they share an - taiwanese who feel they share an identity— taiwanese who feel they share an identity with— taiwanese who feel they share an identity with the _ taiwanese who feel they share an identity with the mainland - taiwanese who feel they share an identity with the mainland and . taiwanese who feel they share an| identity with the mainland and the republic— identity with the mainland and the republic of— identity with the mainland and the republic of china _ identity with the mainland and the republic of china and _ identity with the mainland and the republic of china and would - identity with the mainland and the republic of china and would like i republic of china and would like closer— republic of china and would like closer ties? _ republic of china and would like closer ties?— closer ties? let's start on that because you've _ closer ties? let's start on that because you've lived - closer ties? let's start on that because you've lived on - closer ties? let's start on that because you've lived on both i closer ties? let's start on that - because you've lived on both sides, as a chinese uigur dissident and really embedded into taiwanese society. i really embedded into taiwanese socie . ., . really embedded into taiwanese socie . , ., society. i notice the person who addressed _ society. i notice the person who addressed this _ society. i notice the person who addressed this question, - society. i notice the person who - addressed this question, benjamin, is an expat here and it is a sensitive and interesting part for the expat to play a lot of attention on taiwan's division between, like blue and green division or taiwanese versus chinese division. he mentioned the republic of china. the term republic of china for a lot of local taiwanese as meant a facade of oppression. but then it's no longer the case because in many years of democracy, the 33 decades after lifting martial law, more than a billion ballots have been cast in the republic of china. although it isn't the most favoured domain, it isn't the most favoured domain, it is no longer an oppressive... it is a democratic body. it is is no longer an oppressive. .. it is a democratic body.— a democratic body. it is quite confusing. — a democratic body. it is quite confusing, the _ a democratic body. it is quite confusing, the people's - a democratic body. it is quite - confusing, the people's republic of china, mao tse—tung's minister and chang kai—shek fought, the republic of china, the official name of taiwan. if of china, the official name of taiwan. p, p, of china, the official name of taiwan. . . , ., taiwan. if taiwan changed its name because it's — taiwan. if taiwan changed its name because it's no _ taiwan. if taiwan changed its name because it's no longer _ taiwan. if taiwan changed its name because it's no longer in _ taiwan. if taiwan changed its name| because it's no longer in accordance with the reality we should change our name to the republic of taiwan but that would be changing the status quo. so the us is helping the people to keep taiwan's name as the republic of china. that is the status quo. it was designed in the 70s. taiwan has moved on into a new democracy. we still hold the passport but we call it the republic of china taiwan and we're 0k passport but we call it the republic of china taiwan and we're ok with that. . ., ., , ., of china taiwan and we're ok with that. _, ., i. , .. , that. let me come to you because there are two _ that. let me come to you because there are two posted _ that. let me come to you because there are two posted a _ that. let me come to you because there are two posted a question, | that. let me come to you because i there are two posted a question, the taiwanese who still feel identity with the mainland and most polls say about 10% of taiwanese feel... even eskimo but the higher end, 10% feeling taiwanese and chinese but there is a move within the dpp, some members say they don't want to be called that, they want to be the republic of taiwan. why not call it that? �* .., , republic of taiwan. why not call it that? �* , ~ ., republic of taiwan. why not call it that?�* , ,, ., , that? because we know the possible risk of changing _ that? because we know the possible risk of changing the _ that? because we know the possible risk of changing the title _ that? because we know the possible risk of changing the title because - risk of changing the title because china _ risk of changing the title because china has— risk of changing the title because china has claimed they would resort to the _ china has claimed they would resort to the use _ china has claimed they would resort to the use of force if taiwan does this _ to the use of force if taiwan does this so _ to the use of force if taiwan does this so we — to the use of force if taiwan does this. so we take a cautious approach in dealing _ this. so we take a cautious approach in dealing with that particularly sensitive — in dealing with that particularly sensitive issue. on the other hand, the reason — sensitive issue. on the other hand, the reason why people identify themselves as chinese, we don't confuse — themselves as chinese, we don't confuse two concepts, state and nation — confuse two concepts, state and nation. some people believe they belong _ nation. some people believe they belong to — nation. some people believe they belong to a single chinese nation but they— belong to a single chinese nation but they believe taiwan should be a separate _ but they believe taiwan should be a separate state. one country and two governments. there's a growing chinese — governments. there's a growing chinese side because of democratisation in taiwan because people _ democratisation in taiwan because people have the right to their future — people have the right to their future and to choose government, so the that _ future and to choose government, so the that democratisation created that _ the that democratisation created that. , . , the that democratisation created that. , . ., . , that. one party has traditionally been seen _ that. one party has traditionally been seen as — that. one party has traditionally been seen as perhaps _ that. one party has traditionally been seen as perhaps more - been seen as perhaps more conciliatory towards china down the ruling dpp. what would you say to the taiwanese who still feel that they share an identity? lute the taiwanese who still feel that they share an identity?— the taiwanese who still feel that they share an identity? we all have very strong — they share an identity? we all have very strong taiwan _ they share an identity? we all have very strong taiwan identity. - they share an identity? we all have very strong taiwan identity. the - very strong taiwan identity. the issue _ very strong taiwan identity. the issue of— very strong taiwan identity. the issue of argument _ very strong taiwan identity. the issue of argument is _ very strong taiwan identity. the issue of argument is a - very strong taiwan identity. the issue of argument is a political. issue of argument is a political difference _ issue of argument is a political difference across— issue of argument is a political difference across the - issue of argument is a political difference across the taiwan i issue of argument is a political- difference across the taiwan strait. so, difference across the taiwan strait. so. when _ difference across the taiwan strait. so. when we — difference across the taiwan strait. so, when we talk _ difference across the taiwan strait. so, when we talk about _ difference across the taiwan strait. so, when we talk about taiwan - so, when we talk about taiwan identity. — so, when we talk about taiwan identity. that's— so, when we talk about taiwan identity, that's for— so, when we talk about taiwan identity, that's for sure, - so, when we talk about taiwan identity, that's for sure, but i so, when we talk about taiwan| identity, that's for sure, but on the other— identity, that's for sure, but on the other hand _ identity, that's for sure, but on the other hand we _ identity, that's for sure, but on the other hand we do _ identity, that's for sure, but on the other hand we do not - identity, that's for sure, but on the other hand we do not give. identity, that's for sure, but on - the other hand we do not give away the other hand we do not give away the cultural— the other hand we do not give away the cultural linkage, _ the other hand we do not give away the cultural linkage, historical- the cultural linkage, historical heritage — the cultural linkage, historical heritage and _ the cultural linkage, historical heritage and the _ the cultural linkage, historical heritage and the business - heritage and the business relationship. _ heritage and the business relationship. currently- heritage and the business relationship. currently we heritage and the business - relationship. currently we still have _ relationship. currently we still have more _ relationship. currently we still have more than _ relationship. currently we still have more than 1 _ relationship. currently we still have more than1 million - relationship. currently we still- have more than1 million taiwanese citizens— have more than1 million taiwanese citizens living — have more than1 million taiwanese citizens living on _ have more than1 million taiwanese citizens living on the _ have more than1 million taiwanese citizens living on the mainland, - citizens living on the mainland, doing _ citizens living on the mainland, doing business, _ citizens living on the mainland, doing business, going - citizens living on the mainland, doing business, going to- citizens living on the mainland, i doing business, going to school. citizens living on the mainland, - doing business, going to school. so the business — doing business, going to school. so the business community— doing business, going to school. so the business community have - doing business, going to school. so the business community have their| the business community have their concerns, — the business community have their concerns, the _ the business community have their concerns, the people's _ the business community have their concerns, the people's linkage, . the business community have their concerns, the people's linkage, ii concerns, the people's linkage, i don't _ concerns, the people's linkage, i don't think— concerns, the people's linkage, i don't think we _ concerns, the people's linkage, i don't think we should _ concerns, the people's linkage, i don't think we should cut - concerns, the people's linkage, i don't think we should cut it - concerns, the people's linkage, i don't think we should cut it off. i don't think we should cut it off. that's— don't think we should cut it off. that's our— don't think we should cut it off. that's our position. _ don't think we should cut it off. that's our position. the - don't think we should cut it off. | that's our position. the number don't think we should cut it off. - that's our position. the number one issue _ that's our position. the number one issue is— that's our position. the number one issue is to _ that's our position. the number one issue is to protect _ that's our position. the number one issue is to protect the _ that's our position. the number one issue is to protect the security - that's our position. the number one issue is to protect the security of - issue is to protect the security of the republic— issue is to protect the security of the republic of— issue is to protect the security of the republic of china. _ issue is to protect the security of the republic of china. ititfho - issue is to protect the security of the republic of china.— issue is to protect the security of the republic of china. who is saying cut them off? _ the republic of china. who is saying cut them off? are _ the republic of china. who is saying cut them off? are you _ the republic of china. who is saying cut them off? are you saying - the republic of china. who is saying cut them off? are you saying his - cut them off? are you saying his party are doing that? i’m cut them off? are you saying his party are doing that?— party are doing that? i'm not art uinu party are doing that? i'm not arguing against _ party are doing that? i'm not arguing against them, - party are doing that? i'm not arguing against them, i'm i party are doing that? i'm not - arguing against them, i'm saying when— arguing against them, i'm saying whenwe— arguing against them, i'm saying whenwe say— arguing against them, i'm saying when we say china _ arguing against them, i'm saying when we say china versus - arguing against them, i'm sayingi when we say china versus taiwan, arguing against them, i'm saying i when we say china versus taiwan, a strong _ when we say china versus taiwan, a strong taiwan — when we say china versus taiwan, a strong taiwan identity— when we say china versus taiwan, a strong taiwan identity doesn't - when we say china versus taiwan, a| strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we _ strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we need — strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we need to _ strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we need to cut _ strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we need to cut off. _ strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we need to cut off. you - strong taiwan identity doesn't mean that we need to cut off.— that we need to cut off. you tell him. that we need to cut off. you tell him- korea _ that we need to cut off. you tell him. korea and _ that we need to cut off. you tell him. korea and japan _ that we need to cut off. you tell him. korea and japan have - that we need to cut off. you tell - him. korea and japan have thousands of --eole him. korea and japan have thousands of people living _ him. korea and japan have thousands of people living and _ him. korea and japan have thousands of people living and working - him. korea and japan have thousands of people living and working in - of people living and working in china, — of people living and working in china, it — of people living and working in china, it doesn't mean that those countries — china, it doesn't mean that those countries become a part of china. right _ countries become a part of china. right because a lot of people only see that _ right because a lot of people only see that through _ right because a lot of people only see that through political- right because a lot of people only see that through political and - right because a lot of people only see that through political and an i see that through political and an identity— see that through political and an identity issue, _ see that through political and an identity issue, more _ see that through political and an identity issue, more the - see that through political and an identity issue, more the culturalj identity issue, more the cultural linkage — identity issue, more the cultural linkage and _ identity issue, more the cultural linkage and historical— identity issue, more the cultural linkage and historical heritage. i identity issue, more the cultural. linkage and historical heritage. we do not _ linkage and historical heritage. we do not need — linkage and historical heritage. we do not need to— linkage and historical heritage. we do not need to impose _ linkage and historical heritage. we do not need to impose artificial... i do not need to impose artificial... and r _ do not need to impose artificial... and r d_ do not need to impose artificial... and r d dpp _ do not need to impose artificial... and r d dpp imposing _ do not need to impose artificial... and r d dpp imposing artificial. and r d dpp imposing artificial distinctions? the and r d dpp imposing artificial distinctions?— distinctions? the narrative is that. . . distinctions? the narrative is that- -- he — distinctions? the narrative is that... he being _ distinctions? the narrative is that... he being reticent - distinctions? the narrative is l that... he being reticent about criticisinu that... he being reticent about criticising you _ that... he being reticent about criticising you directly. - that... he being reticent about criticising you directly. you - that... he being reticent about criticising you directly. you are suggesting that the dpp are not conducting the right policy in your eyes. conducting the right policy in your e es. �* ., conducting the right policy in your ees.�* ., . , eyes. i'm not saying that the dpp are cutting _ eyes. i'm not saying that the dpp are cutting off — eyes. i'm not saying that the dpp are cutting off that _ eyes. i'm not saying that the dpp are cutting off that relationship i eyes. i'm not saying that the dpp| are cutting off that relationship or ignoring _ are cutting off that relationship or ignoring the — are cutting off that relationship or ignoring the historical— are cutting off that relationship or ignoring the historical heritage. i ignoring the historical heritage. but i _ ignoring the historical heritage. but i would _ ignoring the historical heritage. but i would say _ ignoring the historical heritage. but i would say that _ ignoring the historical heritage. but i would say that the - ignoring the historical heritage. but i would say that the cross i but i would say that the cross trading — but i would say that the cross trading relationship _ but i would say that the cross trading relationship has - but i would say that the cross trading relationship has been| but i would say that the cross. trading relationship has been a complex— trading relationship has been a complex and _ trading relationship has been a complex and difficult _ trading relationship has been a complex and difficult questioni trading relationship has been a i complex and difficult question and we should — complex and difficult question and we should not— complex and difficult question and we should not look— complex and difficult question and we should not look at _ complex and difficult question and we should not look at cross - complex and difficult question and we should not look at cross trade i we should not look at cross trade relations — we should not look at cross trade relations only _ we should not look at cross trade relations only through _ we should not look at cross trade relations only through a - we should not look at cross trade relations only through a politicali relations only through a political lens _ relations only through a political lens. ., , . , . lens. the communist party made it simle. lens. the communist party made it simple- you _ lens. the communist party made it simple. you either— lens. the communist party made it simple. you either completely - simple. you either completely surrender, submit or stay as a democracy so we are the enemy. it is no longer a complex issue. cross trading relation is no longer a complex issue. submit or not. does that differ your political view from the other one? you that differ your political view from the other one?— the other one? you are saying his -a is the other one? you are saying his party is submitting? _ the other one? you are saying his party is submitting? this may - party is submitting? this may or may not be a debate _ party is submitting? this may or may not be a debate but let's make - party is submitting? this may or may not be a debate but let's make it - not be a debate but let's make it clean _ not be a debate but let's make it clean i_ not be a debate but let's make it clear. i understand _ not be a debate but let's make it clear. i understand that - not be a debate but let's make it clear. i understand that china's. clear. i understand that china's position. — clear. i understand that china's position. you _ clear. i understand that china's position, you know, _ clear. i understand that china's position, you know, when- clear. i understand that china'sl position, you know, when china looksm — position, you know, when china looksm do _ position, you know, when china looks... ,, position, you know, when china looks... . , ,. looks... do you really understand china's position? _ looks... do you really understand china's position? they _ looks... do you really understand china's position? they demand i china's position? they demand surrender. china's position? they demand surrender-— china's position? they demand surrender. �* ., ., . surrender. and we do not agree with that, surrender. and we do not agree with that. ever. — surrender. and we do not agree with that, ever, right? _ surrender. and we do not agree with that, ever, right? in _ surrender. and we do not agree with that, ever, right? in saying - surrender. and we do not agree with that, ever, right? in saying that, - that, ever, right? in saying that, we do _ that, ever, right? in saying that, we do not — that, ever, right? in saying that, we do not need _ that, ever, right? in saying that, we do not need to— that, ever, right? in saying that, we do not need to say— that, ever, right? in saying that, we do not need to say that - that, ever, right? in saying that, we do not need to say that we i that, ever, right? in saying that, l we do not need to say that we are against _ we do not need to say that we are against all— we do not need to say that we are against all these _ we do not need to say that we are against all these business - against all these business activities _ against all these business activities and _ against all these business activities and cultural i against all these business - activities and cultural exchanges. nobody— activities and cultural exchanges. nobody is — activities and cultural exchanges. nobody is saying _ activities and cultural exchanges. nobody is saying let's _ activities and cultural exchanges. nobody is saying let's not - activities and cultural exchanges. nobody is saying let's not do i nobody is saying let's not do business with china. to nobody is saying let's not do business with china. to make it clear there _ business with china. to make it clear there are _ business with china. to make it clear there are distinctions i business with china. to make it clear there are distinctions in i business with china. to make it i clear there are distinctions in your positions. your party says the party does not support taiwanese independence but on the other hand nor do you support the one country two systems concept which hong kong has. which are neither here nor there, then, really. is that the point you are making?- there, then, really. is that the point you are making? yes. uart su ort point you are making? yes. uart support independence _ point you are making? yes. uart support independence and i point you are making? yes. uart support independence and you i point you are making? yes. uart. support independence and you aren't supporting the one country of two systems. they are not openly opposing it. one country, two systems. forthat opposing it. one country, two systems. for that i need to clarify. deng xiaoping raised the concept of one country and two systems in 1981. we opposed one country and two systems from the very beginning. but ou systems from the very beginning. but you still adhere to the 1992 consensus which says there is one china but it is up to the taiwanese to decide that and define that as they wish. you don't denounce that consensus whereas you have. lute they wish. you don't denounce that consensus whereas you have. we don't rive u- our consensus whereas you have. we don't give up our right _ consensus whereas you have. we don't give up our right to _ consensus whereas you have. we don't give up our right to interpret _ consensus whereas you have. we don't give up our right to interpret it - give up our right to interpret it how— give up our right to interpret it how we — give up our right to interpret it how we see _ give up our right to interpret it how we see what _ give up our right to interpret it how we see what happened i give up our right to interpret it how we see what happened in| give up our right to interpret it i how we see what happened in 1992. the eventuality— how we see what happened in 1992. the eventuality of— how we see what happened in 1992. the eventuality of reunification i how we see what happened in 1992. the eventuality of reunification is i the eventuality of reunification is china, _ the eventuality of reunification is china, the — the eventuality of reunification is china, the position is clear, but the difference is how. people should have a _ the difference is how. people should have a final — the difference is how. people should have a final say about their future. your _ have a final say about their future. your position is different. i have a final say about their future. your position is different.- your position is different. i would sa that your position is different. i would say that you're — your position is different. i would say that you're right, _ your position is different. i would say that you're right, we - your position is different. i would say that you're right, we keep i your position is different. i would say that you're right, we keep all| say that you're right, we keep all the options — say that you're right, we keep all the options open _ say that you're right, we keep all the options open except - say that you're right, we keep all the options open except your i the options open except your taiwanese _ the options open except your taiwanese independence. i the options open except your i taiwanese independence. your president— taiwanese independence. your president says _ taiwanese independence. your president says that _ taiwanese independence. your president says that taiwan i taiwanese independence. youri president says that taiwan wants taiwanese independence. your- president says that taiwan wants a free and _ president says that taiwan wants a free and independent— president says that taiwan wants a free and independent government| free and independent government width _ free and independent government width and — free and independent government width and that — free and independent government width and that taiwan _ free and independent government width and that taiwan and - free and independent government width and that taiwan and the i width and that taiwan and the people's — width and that taiwan and the people's republic— width and that taiwan and the people's republic of - width and that taiwan and the people's republic of china i width and that taiwan and the people's republic of china do| width and that taiwan and the i people's republic of china do not belong _ people's republic of china do not belong to — people's republic of china do not belong to each _ people's republic of china do not belong to each other, _ people's republic of china do not belong to each other, you - people's republic of china do notj belong to each other, you defend time _ belong to each other, you defend time and — belong to each other, you defend time and is — belong to each other, you defend time and is sovereignty— belong to each other, you defend time and is sovereignty and - belong to each other, you defend time and is sovereignty and thati belong to each other, you defend i time and is sovereignty and that its future _ time and is sovereignty and that its future should — time and is sovereignty and that its future should be _ time and is sovereignty and that its future should be decided _ time and is sovereignty and that its future should be decided by- time and is sovereignty and that its future should be decided by its- time and is sovereignty and that itsj future should be decided by its own people _ future should be decided by its own people and — future should be decided by its own teo tl; ., , ., future should be decided by its own teolr. ., ., �* future should be decided by its own teal-s. .,�* , people and you don't accept the 1992. .. people and you don't accept the 1992- -- the _ people and you don't accept the 1992. .. the choice _ people and you don't accept the 1992. .. the choice is _ people and you don't accept the 1992. .. the choice is between i people and you don't accept the i 1992. .. the choice is between two different ways _ 1992. .. the choice is between two different ways of _ 1992. .. the choice is between two different ways of life, _ 1992. .. the choice is between two different ways of life, that's i 1992. .. the choice is between two different ways of life, that's it. . different ways of life, that's it. it's also — different ways of life, that's it. it's also our position, which is the same _ it's also our position, which is the same as_ it's also our position, which is the same as the — it's also our position, which is the same as the dpp, _ it's also our position, which is the same as the dpp, that— it's also our position, which is the same as the dpp, that the - it's also our position, which is the same as the dpp, that the futurel it's also our position, which is the l same as the dpp, that the future of taiwan_ same as the dpp, that the future of taiwan should — same as the dpp, that the future of taiwan should be _ same as the dpp, that the future of taiwan should be determined - same as the dpp, that the future of taiwan should be determined by. same as the dpp, that the future of| taiwan should be determined by the 23 million _ taiwan should be determined by the 23 million people _ taiwan should be determined by the 23 million people here _ taiwan should be determined by the 23 million people here in _ taiwan should be determined by the 23 million people here in taiwan. i 23 million people here in taiwan. you don't — 23 million people here in taiwan. you don't say— 23 million people here in taiwan. you don't say you _ 23 million people here in taiwan. you don't say you want _ 23 million people here in taiwan. you don't say you want formal. you don't say you want formal independence, either. you are for the status quo. that's go to the next question from charlene. some --eole next question from charlene. some peeple believe _ next question from charlene. some people believe that _ next question from charlene. some people believe that to _ next question from charlene. some people believe that to prevent a war from happening _ people believe that to prevent a war from happening taiwan— people believe that to prevent a war from happening taiwan should - people believe that to prevent a war from happening taiwan should try. people believe that to prevent a war. from happening taiwan should try not to offend _ from happening taiwan should try not to offend the — from happening taiwan should try not to offend the chinese _ from happening taiwan should try not to offend the chinese communist - to offend the chinese communist party— to offend the chinese communist party in— to offend the chinese communist party in any— to offend the chinese communist party in any form— to offend the chinese communist party in any form and _ to offend the chinese communist party in any form and should - to offend the chinese communist party in any form and should not| party in any form and should not have _ party in any form and should not have invited _ party in any form and should not have invited the _ party in any form and should not have invited the us _ party in any form and should not have invited the us speaker- party in any form and should not have invited the us speaker of l party in any form and should not l have invited the us speaker of the house _ have invited the us speaker of the house nancy— have invited the us speaker of the house nancy pelosi. _ have invited the us speaker of the house nancy pelosi. some - have invited the us speaker of the house nancy pelosi. some believel house nancy pelosi. some believe that the _ house nancy pelosi. some believe that the chinese _ house nancy pelosi. some believe that the chinese final _ house nancy pelosi. some believe that the chinese final warning - house nancy pelosi. some believe. that the chinese final warning never carries— that the chinese final warning never carries real— that the chinese final warning never carries real consequences. - that the chinese final warning never carries real consequences. how- carries real consequences. how should — carries real consequences. how should we — carries real consequences. how should we perceive _ carries real consequences. how should we perceive the - carries real consequences. how should we perceive the issue i carries real consequences. how. should we perceive the issue and still maintain _ should we perceive the issue and still maintain our— should we perceive the issue and still maintain our global- should we perceive the issue and i still maintain our global presence? amanda? — still maintain our global presence? amanda? i— still maintain our global presence? amanda? ~' ., still maintain our global presence? amanda? ~ ., ., , ., amanda? i think for any government in the world. — amanda? i think for any government in the world, it _ amanda? i think for any government in the world, it would _ amanda? i think for any government in the world, it would be _ in the world, it would be unrealistic to use as a standard, chinese feelings to make a decision about your policies. we have seen that beijing is easily offended by a wide—ranging activities and words so it is unrealistic to use that as a standard. at the same time i want to stress that it is clear that unification with taiwan has historically and consistently been very important, a core issue for the communist party. so we shouldn't underestimate their commitment to that. so their threats are credible. the question is how you thread the needle on this. it is clear that taiwanese to take steps to strengthen its ability to defend itself, with the help of the us. and that taiwan need to pursue its interests through its unofficial relationships within the framework of unofficial relationships, economically, politically, with europe, with the us and other countries that are willing. the key here is that while taiwan, for its interests in that way, that it remembers that it makes gestures of political assurance to beijing. i think that's also important and something we talk less about. bill stanton. i opposed _ something we talk less about. bill stanton. i opposed the _ something we talk less about. bill stanton. i opposed the visit - something we talk less about. bill stanton. i opposed the visit of - stanton. i opposed the visit of nancy pelosi _ stanton. i opposed the visit of nancy pelosi to _ stanton. i opposed the visit of nancy pelosi to taiwan, - stanton. i opposed the visit of nancy pelosi to taiwan, not i stanton. i opposed the visit of - nancy pelosi to taiwan, not because i nancy pelosi to taiwan, not because i don't _ nancy pelosi to taiwan, not because idon't think— nancy pelosi to taiwan, not because i don't think she should have a idon't think she should have a right— i don't think she should have a right to — i don't think she should have a right to come. but what i'd like to see is— right to come. but what i'd like to see is concrete measures by the united _ see is concrete measures by the united states, bolstering taiwan, whether— united states, bolstering taiwan, whether providing more defensive equipment, more military training, more _ equipment, more military training, more money. concrete gestures like that would _ more money. concrete gestures like that would be much more meaningful than having congressmen flying in and out _ than having congressmen flying in and out on — than having congressmen flying in and out on a regular basis. the us senate just _ and out on a regular basis. the us senate just passed _ and out on a regular basis. the us senate just passed a _ and out on a regular basis. the us senate just passed a $6.5 - and out on a regular basis. the us senate just passed a $6.5 billion l senate just passed a $6.5 billion bill to provide military aid to taiwan. , .., bill to provide military aid to taiwan. , _, ., ., ., taiwan. they could have done that without having _ taiwan. they could have done that without having a _ taiwan. they could have done that without having a visit. _ taiwan. they could have done that without having a visit. so - taiwan. they could have done that without having a visit. so why - without having a visit. so why didn't you _ without having a visit. so why didn't you want _ without having a visit. so why didn't you want nancy - without having a visit. so why didn't you want nancy pelosil without having a visit. so why i didn't you want nancy pelosi to without having a visit. so why - didn't you want nancy pelosi to be here? �* , ., ., �* didn't you want nancy pelosi to be here? �*, ., ., �* ., here? it's not that i didn't want here? it's not that i didn't want her here. _ here? it's not that i didn't want her here. i _ here? it's not that i didn't want her here, i thought _ here? it's not that i didn't want her here, i thought it _ here? it's not that i didn't want her here, i thought it was - here? it's not that i didn't want her here, i thought it was an i here? it's not that i didn't want - her here, i thought it was an empty gesture _ her here, i thought it was an empty gesture i_ her here, i thought it was an empty gesture. i would her here, i thought it was an empty gesture. iwould have rather seen her in _ gesture. iwould have rather seen her in washington working on concrete _ her in washington working on concrete legislation.- her in washington working on concrete legislation. because it would upset — concrete legislation. because it would upset the _ concrete legislation. because it would upset the chinese? - concrete legislation. because it| would upset the chinese? which concrete legislation. because it i would upset the chinese? which it did and they fired those military missiles. �* , ., , ., did and they fired those military missiles. �* , ., _ . missiles. because it was a symbolic move and it — missiles. because it was a symbolic move and it is _ missiles. because it was a symbolic move and it is meaningless. - missiles. because it was a symbolic move and it is meaningless. next i move and it is meaningless. next cuestion. move and it is meaningless. next question. winston _ move and it is meaningless. next question. winston churchill - move and it is meaningless. next question. winston churchill once | question. winston churchill once said if you _ question. winston churchill once said if you choose _ question. winston churchill once said if you choose between - question. winston churchill once i said if you choose between humility and peace, you choose peace and then you will face war eventually. if you remember that, especially on this platform. the don't poke the bear argument, itjust doesn't work, the bear wants to eat you up anyway. fiur bear wants to eat you up anyway. our next question, please. the _ bear wants to eat you up anyway. our next question, please. the us - bear wants to eat you up anyway. our next question, please. the us seemsj next question, please. the us seems to be moving — next question, please. the us seems to be moving away — next question, please. the us seems to be moving away from _ next question, please. the us seems to be moving away from a _ next question, please. the us seems to be moving away from a strategy i next question, please. the us seems to be moving away from a strategy ofj to be moving away from a strategy of ambiguity— to be moving away from a strategy of ambiguity as— to be moving away from a strategy of ambiguity as biden _ to be moving away from a strategy of ambiguity as biden made _ to be moving away from a strategy of ambiguity as biden made clear- to be moving away from a strategy of ambiguity as biden made clear his i ambiguity as biden made clear his defence _ ambiguity as biden made clear his defence of— ambiguity as biden made clear his defence of taiwan _ ambiguity as biden made clear his defence of taiwan if— ambiguity as biden made clear his defence of taiwan if there - ambiguity as biden made clear his defence of taiwan if there is i ambiguity as biden made clear his defence of taiwan if there is an i defence of taiwan if there is an unprecedented _ defence of taiwan if there is an unprecedented attack. - defence of taiwan if there is an unprecedented attack. what i defence of taiwan if there is an i unprecedented attack. what does this mean _ unprecedented attack. what does this mean for— unprecedented attack. what does this mean for taiwan— unprecedented attack. what does this mean for taiwan and _ unprecedented attack. what does this mean for taiwan and the _ unprecedented attack. what does this mean for taiwan and the western i mean for taiwan and the western community? _ mean for taiwan and the western community?— mean for taiwan and the western community? has the united states abandoned strategic _ community? has the united states abandoned strategic ambiguity? i i abandoned strategic ambiguity? i think that biden has, for sure. on several— think that biden has, for sure. on several occasions, at least four times, _ several occasions, at least four times, maybe five, he's indicated that we _ times, maybe five, he's indicated that we would defend taiwan in the event _ that we would defend taiwan in the event of— that we would defend taiwan in the event of an— that we would defend taiwan in the event of an attack. what happens is that his _ event of an attack. what happens is that his administrative flunkies around — that his administrative flunkies around him come forward and say, well, _ around him come forward and say, well, we _ around him come forward and say, well, we haven't changed our policy. but if _ well, we haven't changed our policy. but if the _ well, we haven't changed our policy. but if the president speaks on a number— but if the president speaks on a number of— but if the president speaks on a number of occasions and says we will defend _ number of occasions and says we will defend taiwan, that in effect is the policy _ defend taiwan, that in effect is the policy so— defend taiwan, that in effect is the policy. so i— defend taiwan, that in effect is the policy. so i think the policy has been _ policy. so i think the policy has been changed. and i think it should change _ been changed. and i think it should change |_ been changed. and i think it should chance. ., ~' been changed. and i think it should chance. ., ,, ., change. i would like to disagree with that, actually. _ change. i would like to disagree with that, actually. i— change. i would like to disagree with that, actually. i agree i change. i would like to disagree with that, actually. i agree in i change. i would like to disagree l with that, actually. i agree in the sense that the fact that biden has said it so many times means that under his presidency, if china would invade the us would take measures, i agree. he invade the us would take measures, i auree. . , invade the us would take measures, i a. ree, ., , invade the us would take measures, i airee. .,, ., invade the us would take measures, i auree. ., , . , agree. he has said that explicitly, he would commit _ agree. he has said that explicitly, he would commit american - agree. he has said that explicitly, he would commit american men | agree. he has said that explicitly, i he would commit american men and women to defending taiwan. irate he would commit american men and women to defending taiwan.- women to defending taiwan. we can assume that — women to defending taiwan. we can assume that under— women to defending taiwan. we can assume that under biden _ women to defending taiwan. we can assume that under biden it - women to defending taiwan. we can assume that under biden it would i assume that under biden it would happen but i don't agree with the fact that the policy should change. there are risks in clarifying, to have a strategic clarity and one key risk is that it can send the wrong... the chinese military already assumes that the us will militarily intervene in an intervention so that isn't changing the calculus at all by the us declaring that they would intervene. they already assume that. but what you are changing is you are sending a certain political signal to beijing that says the us is increasingly lending support towards taiwanese formal independence because there will be a concern that such a move gives taiwan a blank cheque. if the us comes out and says they will intervene and any sort of circumstances, that represents a wholesale change in some ways for beijing. so there are risks. risks for taiwan. _ beijing. so there are risks. risks for taiwan, it _ beijing. so there are risks. risks for taiwan, it could _ beijing. so there are risks. risks for taiwan, it could end - beijing. so there are risks. risks for taiwan, it could end up - beijing. so there are risks. risks for taiwan, it could end up being a pawn in the massive us china rivalry, right? if pawn in the massive us china rivalry. right?— pawn in the massive us china rivalry, right? if there is a blank cheaue rivalry, right? if there is a blank cheque to _ rivalry, right? if there is a blank cheque to taiwan, _ rivalry, right? if there is a blank cheque to taiwan, taiwan - rivalry, right? if there is a blank i cheque to taiwan, taiwan wouldn't do anything _ cheque to taiwan, taiwan wouldn't do anything stupid — cheque to taiwan, taiwan wouldn't do anything stupid to _ cheque to taiwan, taiwan wouldn't do anything stupid to provoke _ cheque to taiwan, taiwan wouldn't do anything stupid to provoke or- cheque to taiwan, taiwan wouldn't do anything stupid to provoke or upset i anything stupid to provoke or upset china _ anything stupid to provoke or upset china i_ anything stupid to provoke or upset china idon't— anything stupid to provoke or upset china. i don't think— anything stupid to provoke or upset china. i don't think this _ anything stupid to provoke or upset china. i don't think this kind - anything stupid to provoke or upset china. i don't think this kind of- china. idon't think this kind of policy— china. idon't think this kind of policy of— china. i don't think this kind of policy of clarity _ china. i don't think this kind of policy of clarity is _ china. i don't think this kind of policy of clarity is bad - china. i don't think this kind of policy of clarity is bad for i policy of clarity is bad for maintaining— policy of clarity is bad for maintaining deterrence. i policy of clarity is bad for| maintaining deterrence. i policy of clarity is bad for i maintaining deterrence. i think policy of clarity is bad for - maintaining deterrence. i think to maintain — maintaining deterrence. i think to maintaina— maintaining deterrence. i think to maintain a credible _ maintaining deterrence. i think to maintain a credible and _ maintaining deterrence. i think to maintain a credible and effective i maintain a credible and effective deterrents. _ maintain a credible and effective deterrents, strategic— maintain a credible and effective deterrents, strategic clarity i maintain a credible and effective deterrents, strategic clarity is i deterrents, strategic clarity is very— deterrents, strategic clarity is very important _ deterrents, strategic clarity is very important. is— deterrents, strategic clarity is very important-— deterrents, strategic clarity is very important. is that how the government — very important. is that how the government yet _ very important. is that how the government yet sees _ very important. is that how the government yet sees it, - very important. is that how the government yet sees it, that i government yet sees it, that ambiguity has been abandoned? l’m ambiguity has been abandoned? i'm not interpreting the policy but i personally _ not interpreting the policy but i personally for _ not interpreting the policy but i personally for clarity _ not interpreting the policy but i personally for clarity about i personally for clarity about technical _ personally for clarity about technical ambiguity. i personally for clarity about technicalambiguity. [- personally for clarity about technical ambiguity. personally for clarity about technical ambiui . ., ~' ., technical ambiguity. i would like to interret technical ambiguity. i would like to interpret biden's _ technical ambiguity. i would like to interpret biden's policy. _ technical ambiguity. i would like to interpret biden's policy. the - technical ambiguity. i would like to interpret biden's policy. the us i technical ambiguity. i would like to | interpret biden's policy. the us has realised that the old china policy is failing. the old china policy was architect by henry kissinger himself. forthe architect by henry kissinger himself. for the last a0 years, quite pleasing to china and he himself became the most favourite guest of china. the himself became the most favourite guest of china-— guest of china. the former us secretary _ guest of china. the former us secretary of — guest of china. the former us secretary of state _ guest of china. the former us secretary of state under - guest of china. the former us i secretary of state under president nixon. a rapprochement with china. ambiguity didn't work. that is the conclusion the united states policymakers have already come to. alexander, you are the kmt special representative for the united states, what is your interpretation? when you talk about ambiguity and clarity. _ when you talk about ambiguity and clarity. the — when you talk about ambiguity and clarity, the purpose _ when you talk about ambiguity and clarity, the purpose is _ when you talk about ambiguity and clarity, the purpose is the - when you talk about ambiguity and clarity, the purpose is the same, i when you talk about ambiguity and | clarity, the purpose is the same, to deter. _ clarity, the purpose is the same, to deter. to _ clarity, the purpose is the same, to deter. to show— clarity, the purpose is the same, to deter, to show deterrents. - clarity, the purpose is the same, to deter, to show deterrents. so, i clarity, the purpose is the same, to. deter, to show deterrents. so, which one is— deter, to show deterrents. so, which one is better— deter, to show deterrents. so, which one is better to— deter, to show deterrents. so, which one is better to deter— deter, to show deterrents. so, which one is better to deter a _ deter, to show deterrents. so, which one is better to deter a chinese i one is better to deter a chinese invasion? — one is better to deter a chinese invasion? ambiguity— one is better to deter a chinese invasion? ambiguity gives - one is better to deter a chinese invasion? ambiguity gives the i one is better to deter a chinese - invasion? ambiguity gives the united states_ invasion? ambiguity gives the united states more — invasion? ambiguity gives the united states more flexibility _ invasion? ambiguity gives the united states more flexibility to _ invasion? ambiguity gives the united states more flexibility to respond. i states more flexibility to respond. to do— states more flexibility to respond. to do or— states more flexibility to respond. to do or not — states more flexibility to respond. to do or not to— states more flexibility to respond. to do or not to do, _ states more flexibility to respond. to do or not to do, and _ states more flexibility to respond. to do or not to do, and to - states more flexibility to respond. to do or not to do, and to make i to do or not to do, and to make beijing— to do or not to do, and to make beijing gas _ to do or not to do, and to make beijing gas. that's— to do or not to do, and to make beijing gas. that's the - to do or not to do, and to make beijing gas. that's the basics. to do or not to do, and to make beijing gas. that's the basics of| beijing gas. that's the basics of ambiguitv _ beijing gas. that's the basics of ambiguity. clarity— beijing gas. that's the basics of ambiguity. clarity in— beijing gas. that's the basics of ambiguity. clarity in some - beijing gas. that's the basics of ambiguity. clarity in some ways would _ ambiguity. clarity in some ways would not — ambiguity. clarity in some ways would not only— ambiguity. clarity in some ways would not only give _ ambiguity. clarity in some ways would not only give china - ambiguity. clarity in some ways would not only give china a - ambiguity. clarity in some ways i would not only give china a strong signal— would not only give china a strong signal that— would not only give china a strong signal that the _ would not only give china a strong signal that the united _ would not only give china a strong signal that the united states - would not only give china a strong signal that the united states will i signal that the united states will react, _ signal that the united states will react, and — signal that the united states will react, and also _ signal that the united states will react, and also clarity— signal that the united states will react, and also clarity can - signal that the united states will react, and also clarity can tie - signal that the united states willj react, and also clarity can tie the hands _ react, and also clarity can tie the hands of— react, and also clarity can tie the hands of the _ react, and also clarity can tie the hands of the us _ react, and also clarity can tie the hands of the us and _ react, and also clarity can tie the hands of the us and lower- react, and also clarity can tie the hands of the us and lower the i hands of the us and lower the strategic— hands of the us and lower the strategic assurances - hands of the us and lower the strategic assurances of - hands of the us and lower the i strategic assurances of freedom hands of the us and lower the - strategic assurances of freedom for the policymakers. _ strategic assurances of freedom for the policymakers. you— strategic assurances of freedom for the policymakers.— the policymakers. you have two --eole the policymakers. you have two peeple shaking _ the policymakers. you have two people shaking their— the policymakers. you have two people shaking their heads. - the policymakers. you have two - people shaking their heads. clarity, in: the people shaking their heads. clarity, tying the americans _ people shaking their heads. clarity, tying the americans hands? - people shaking their heads. clarity, tying the americans hands? clarityl tying the americans hands? clarity is saying to china that if you invade, we will come to you. that gives america all of its leveraged to do whatever they want, almost whatever. the clarity gives the us more room to react. that whatever. the clarity gives the us more room to react.— whatever. the clarity gives the us more room to react. that way they would be tying _ more room to react. that way they would be tying themselves - more room to react. that way they would be tying themselves into - would be tying themselves into intervening. the would be tying themselves into intervening-— would be tying themselves into intervenina. ,, , , intervening. the us response could be anything- _ intervening. the us response could be anything. military _ intervening. the us response could be anything. military support, - be anything. military support, economic— be anything. military support, economic sanctions— be anything. military support, economic sanctions and - be anything. military support, economic sanctions and so - be anything. military support, | economic sanctions and so on, be anything. military support, - economic sanctions and so on, so it doesn't _ economic sanctions and so on, so it doesn't mean — economic sanctions and so on, so it doesn't mean you _ economic sanctions and so on, so it doesn't mean you have _ economic sanctions and so on, so it doesn't mean you have to _ economic sanctions and so on, so it doesn't mean you have to send - economic sanctions and so on, so it. doesn't mean you have to send troops over here _ doesn't mean you have to send troops over here when — doesn't mean you have to send troops over here when you _ doesn't mean you have to send troops over here when you take _ doesn't mean you have to send troops over here when you take on _ doesn't mean you have to send troops over here when you take on the - over here when you take on the ambiguity— over here when you take on the ambiguity policy _ over here when you take on the ambiguity policy. ambiguity - over here when you take on the . ambiguity policy. ambiguity means over here when you take on the - ambiguity policy. ambiguity means we will respond. — ambiguity policy. ambiguity means we will respond. p, — ambiguity policy. ambiguity means we will respond, p, but _ ambiguity policy. ambiguity means we will respond, p, but it— ambiguity policy. ambiguity means we will respond, p, but it doesn't- ambiguity policy. ambiguity means we will respond, p, but it doesn't tell- will respond, p, but it doesn't tell you how — will respond, p, but it doesn't tell ou how. �* . . will respond, p, but it doesn't tell ou how. �*, . ., ., . , , you how. there's a lot of ambiguity about strategic _ you how. there's a lot of ambiguity about strategic ambiguity! - you how. there's a lot of ambiguity about strategic ambiguity! let's - about strategic ambiguity! let's just move on in the meantime. anna, your question? mr; just move on in the meantime. anna, your question?— your question? my question concerns deterrents. the _ your question? my question concerns deterrents. the west _ your question? my question concerns deterrents. the west has _ your question? my question concerns deterrents. the west has failed - your question? my question concerns deterrents. the west has failed in . deterrents. the west has failed in deterring — deterrents. the west has failed in deterring russia _ deterrents. the west has failed in deterring russia from _ deterrents. the west has failed in deterring russia from unleashingi deterrents. the west has failed in . deterring russia from unleashing its war in— deterring russia from unleashing its war in ukraine — deterring russia from unleashing its war in ukraine but _ deterring russia from unleashing its war in ukraine but has _ deterring russia from unleashing its war in ukraine but has since - deterring russia from unleashing its| war in ukraine but has since adopted comprehensive — war in ukraine but has since adopted comprehensive sanctions _ war in ukraine but has since adopted comprehensive sanctions which - war in ukraine but has since adopted comprehensive sanctions which havej comprehensive sanctions which have helped _ comprehensive sanctions which have helped isolate — comprehensive sanctions which have helped isolate russia. _ comprehensive sanctions which have helped isolate russia. do— comprehensive sanctions which have helped isolate russia. do you - comprehensive sanctions which have helped isolate russia. do you think. helped isolate russia. do you think such punitive — helped isolate russia. do you think such punitive measures— helped isolate russia. do you think such punitive measures to - helped isolate russia. do you think such punitive measures to deter. such punitive measures to deter beijing — such punitive measures to deter beijing from _ such punitive measures to deter beijing from using _ such punitive measures to deter beijing from using force - such punitive measures to deter beijing from using force to - such punitive measures to deter beijing from using force to take| beijing from using force to take taiwan? — beijing from using force to take taiwan? b— beijing from using force to take taiwan? �* . ~ beijing from using force to take taiwan? . w . , ., . beijing from using force to take taiwan? . . , ., . ., taiwan? a quick answer from all of ou, taiwan? a quick answer from all of you. would — taiwan? a quick answer from all of you, would sanctions _ taiwan? a quick answer from all of you, would sanctions work- taiwan? a quick answer from all of you, would sanctions work on - taiwan? a quick answer from all of| you, would sanctions work on china in the event of an invasion because they would isolate china? i in the event of an invasion because they would isolate china?— they would isolate china? i think in they would isolate china? i think in the case they would isolate china? i think in the ease of — they would isolate china? i think in the case of ukraine, _ they would isolate china? i think in the case of ukraine, as _ they would isolate china? i think in the case of ukraine, as a _ they would isolate china? i think in the case of ukraine, as a student l they would isolate china? i think in| the case of ukraine, as a student of international— the case of ukraine, as a student of international relations, _ the case of ukraine, as a student of international relations, sanctions, i international relations, sanctions, the interpretation _ international relations, sanctions, the interpretation of _ international relations, sanctions, the interpretation of sanctions - international relations, sanctions, | the interpretation of sanctions and the interpretation of sanctions and the cost _ the interpretation of sanctions and the cost of— the interpretation of sanctions and the cost of sanctions _ the interpretation of sanctions and the cost of sanctions have - the interpretation of sanctions and l the cost of sanctions have expanded. we did _ the cost of sanctions have expanded. we did not— the cost of sanctions have expanded. we did not witness _ the cost of sanctions have expanded. we did not witness that _ the cost of sanctions have expanded. we did not witness that before - the cost of sanctions have expanded. we did not witness that before the i we did not witness that before the war in— we did not witness that before the war in ukraine _ we did not witness that before the war in ukraine. and _ we did not witness that before the war in ukraine. and beijing - war in ukraine. and beijing decision—makers _ war in ukraine. and beijing decision—makers must - war in ukraine. and beijing| decision—makers must have war in ukraine. and beijing - decision—makers must have watched it, decision—makers must have watched it. thought _ decision—makers must have watched it. thought about _ decision—makers must have watched it, thought about it _ decision—makers must have watched it, thought about it and _ decision—makers must have watched it, thought about it and think- decision—makers must have watched it, thought about it and think that i it, thought about it and think that the current— it, thought about it and think that the current measures _ it, thought about it and think that the current measures against - it, thought about it and think that l the current measures against russia and isolating — the current measures against russia and isolating russia _ the current measures against russia and isolating russia will— the current measures against russia and isolating russia will teach - and isolating russia will teach beijing — and isolating russia will teach beijing a — and isolating russia will teach beijing a great— and isolating russia will teach beijing a great lesson. - and isolating russia will teach beijing a great lesson.- and isolating russia will teach beijing a great lesson. would it teach them _ beijing a great lesson. would it teach them a _ beijing a great lesson. would it teach them a lesson? - beijing a great lesson. would it teach them a lesson? yes. - beijing a great lesson. would it teach them a lesson? yes. but| beijing a great lesson. would it - teach them a lesson? yes. but china is all over the _ teach them a lesson? yes. but china is all over the place _ teach them a lesson? yes. but china is all over the place in _ teach them a lesson? yes. but china is all over the place in the _ teach them a lesson? yes. but china is all over the place in the trading . is all over the place in the trading economy, — is all over the place in the trading economy. they— is all over the place in the trading economy, they are _ is all over the place in the trading economy, they are trading - is all over the place in the trading economy, they are trading with l economy, they are trading with everybody. _ economy, they are trading with everybody. so _ economy, they are trading with everybody, so would _ economy, they are trading with everybody, so would the - economy, they are trading with i everybody, so would the sanctions work? _ everybody, so would the sanctions work? l _ everybody, so would the sanctions work? ~ . ., , everybody, so would the sanctions work? ~ . ., ., ., work? i think sanctions alone would not deter the _ work? i think sanctions alone would not deter the people _ work? i think sanctions alone would not deter the people from - work? i think sanctions alone would not deter the people from taking i not deter the people from taking this action but supplying arms to taiwan— this action but supplying arms to taiwan may have more credibility in terms _ taiwan may have more credibility in terms of— taiwan may have more credibility in terms of deterring the prc. pressure has alwa s terms of deterring the prc. pressure has always worked _ terms of deterring the prc. pressure has always worked in _ terms of deterring the prc. pressure has always worked in terms - terms of deterring the prc. pressure has always worked in terms of - has always worked in terms of changing the prc�*s policy. pressures and sanctions always work. while the world is sending those messages, pressures and sanctions, they are sending the wrong message to beijing, to apply pressure and say you are doing human rights abuses, it is horrible but at the same time, let's do a trade talk. the trade talk agreement isn't linked to the question or demand we put on human rights. it is telling beijing that you don't care about human rights. so the world is being a hypocrite and sanctions wouldn't work. it you and sanctions wouldn't work. if you want send the _ and sanctions wouldn't work. if you want send the right _ and sanctions wouldn't work. if you want send the right message, - and sanctions wouldn't work. if you want send the right message, if. and sanctions wouldn't work. if gm. want send the right message, if you do sanctions it has to be with the right message. the right message is, no, we aren't going to —— we are going to hold onto your human rights and accountability to freedom. if sanctions come in that way, beijing would send delegation to washington and talk about a new deal next week. final question to wrap up this edition. amanda, is taiwan the biggest flashpoint for china and the world? . biggest flashpoint for china and the world? yes! a quick answer. why? because it — world? yes! a quick answer. why? because it is _ world? yes! a quick answer. why? because it is the _ world? jest a quick answer. why? because it is the central point world? 193�*: a quick answer. why? because it is the central point of contention in the us china bilateral relations right now, so it is the one issue that could possibly bring beijing and washington into a direct conflict. band beijing and washington into a direct conflict. : , : ,, :, , :, conflict. and repercussions for the world. repercussions _ conflict. and repercussions for the world. repercussions for - conflict. and repercussions for the world. repercussions for the - conflict. and repercussions for the | world. repercussions for the world are massive- _ world. repercussions for the world are massive. largely— world. repercussions for the world are massive. largely because - world. repercussions for the world are massive. largely because of i are massive. largely because of economic reasons.— are massive. largely because of economic reasons. thank you, bill stanton? l — economic reasons. thank you, bill stanton? i agree. _ economic reasons. thank you, bill stanton? i agree. the _ economic reasons. thank you, bill stanton? i agree. the reason - economic reasons. thank you, bill stanton? i agree. the reason is i economic reasons. thank you, bill i stanton? i agree. the reason is that xijininr stanton? i agree. the reason is that xijinping has— stanton? i agree. the reason is that xi jinping has made _ stanton? i agree. the reason is that xi jinping has made it _ stanton? i agree. the reason is that xi jinping has made it the _ stanton? i agree. the reason is that xi jinping has made it the key - xi jinping has made it the key issue — xi jinping has made it the key issue. he's actually threatened war with the _ issue. he's actually threatened war with the united states over taiwan and so _ with the united states over taiwan and so it— with the united states over taiwan and so it is— with the united states over taiwan and so it is now the number one threat _ and so it is now the number one threat and — and so it is now the number one threat and it is the number one potentially explosion that would start an — potentially explosion that would start an enormous war. so i think we have _ start an enormous war. so i think we have to _ start an enormous war. so i think we have to pay— start an enormous war. so i think we have to pay serious attention to it. alexander? — have to pay serious attention to it. alexander?— have to pay serious attention to it. alexander? ~ , , :, :, , alexander? when isa yes i would hope that the young — alexander? when isa yes i would hope that the young people _ alexander? when isa yes i would hope that the young people in _ alexander? when isa yes i would hope that the young people in taiwan - that the young people in taiwan would _ that the young people in taiwan would share _ that the young people in taiwan would share the _ that the young people in taiwan would share the same _ that the young people in taiwan would share the same concern. that the young people in taiwan . would share the same concern and that the young people in taiwan - would share the same concern and the vigilance _ would share the same concern and the vigilance that — would share the same concern and the vigilance that we — would share the same concern and the vigilance that we need _ would share the same concern and the vigilance that we need to _ would share the same concern and the vigilance that we need to have. - would share the same concern and the vigilance that we need to have. yes, l vigilance that we need to have. yes, it is a _ vigilance that we need to have. yes, it is a flashpoint _ vigilance that we need to have. yes, it is a flashpoint because _ vigilance that we need to have. yes, it is a flashpoint because china - it is a flashpoint because china sees _ it is a flashpoint because china sees taiwan— it is a flashpoint because china sees taiwan as _ it is a flashpoint because china sees taiwan as a _ it is a flashpoint because china sees taiwan as a part - it is a flashpoint because china sees taiwan as a part of- it is a flashpoint because china sees taiwan as a part of its - sees taiwan as a part of its possession _ sees taiwan as a part of its possession and _ sees taiwan as a part of its possession and it - sees taiwan as a part of its possession and it will- sees taiwan as a part of its possession and it will not l sees taiwan as a part of its i possession and it will not give sees taiwan as a part of its - possession and it will not give up. right _ possession and it will not give up. right now— possession and it will not give up. right now the _ possession and it will not give up. right now the united _ possession and it will not give up. right now the united states - possession and it will not give up. right now the united states also. right now the united states also sees taiwan— right now the united states also sees taiwan at _ right now the united states also sees taiwan at the _ right now the united states also sees taiwan at the centre - right now the united states also sees taiwan at the centre of - right now the united states also sees taiwan at the centre of the | sees taiwan at the centre of the first island — sees taiwan at the centre of the first island chain _ sees taiwan at the centre of the first island chain and _ sees taiwan at the centre of the first island chain and should - sees taiwan at the centre of the first island chain and should not| sees taiwan at the centre of the i first island chain and should not be given— first island chain and should not be given up _ first island chain and should not be given up so — first island chain and should not be given up so when— first island chain and should not be given up. so when both— first island chain and should not be given up. so when both powers - first island chain and should not bej given up. so when both powers are first island chain and should not be . given up. so when both powers are in stiff competition— given up. so when both powers are in stiff competition and _ given up. so when both powers are in stiff competition and both _ given up. so when both powers are in stiff competition and both powers - stiff competition and both powers see taiwan — stiff competition and both powers see taiwan as _ stiff competition and both powers see taiwan as a _ stiff competition and both powers see taiwan as a place _ stiff competition and both powers see taiwan as a place that - stiff competition and both powers see taiwan as a place that cannotj stiff competition and both powers i see taiwan as a place that cannot be lost, _ see taiwan as a place that cannot be lost, then— see taiwan as a place that cannot be lost, then taiwan _ see taiwan as a place that cannot be lost, then taiwan is _ see taiwan as a place that cannot be lost, then taiwan is the _ see taiwan as a place that cannot be lost, then taiwan is the flashpoint. i lost, then taiwan is the flashpoint. leaders— lost, then taiwan is the flashpoint. leaders in— lost, then taiwan is the flashpoint. leaders in beijing _ lost, then taiwan is the flashpoint. leaders in beijing believe - lost, then taiwan is the flashpoint. leaders in beijing believe the - leaders in beijing believe the strategy is to succumb the enemy without using combat. they want to use the threat of force to coerce taiwan to come to beijing's terms. they would use force in the immediate future but they want to force taiwan to accept the unification terms.- force taiwan to accept the unification terms. . , :, :, , :, unification terms. last word to you. i don't unification terms. last word to you. i don't think— unification terms. last word to you. i don't think so. _ unification terms. last word to you. i don't think so. you _ unification terms. last word to you. i don't think so. you don't - unification terms. last word to you. i don't think so. you don't think- unification terms. last word to you. i don't think so. you don't think it l i don't think so. you don't think it is the flashpoint? _ i don't think so. you don't think it is the flashpoint? no, _ i don't think so. you don't think it is the flashpoint? no, it - i don't think so. you don't think it is the flashpoint? no, it has - i don't think so. you don't think it is the flashpoint? no, it has been for over seven _ is the flashpoint? no, it has been for over seven decades _ is the flashpoint? no, it has been for over seven decades because l is the flashpoint? no, it has been l for over seven decades because the world _ for over seven decades because the world has— for over seven decades because the world has been sending the wrong message — world has been sending the wrong message to beijing, to the communist party. _ message to beijing, to the communist party. that _ message to beijing, to the communist party, that the world is afraid of china _ party, that the world is afraid of china i— party, that the world is afraid of china. i think the world is changing tone~ _ china. i think the world is changing tone~ china — china. i think the world is changing tone. china should be afraid of the world, _ tone. china should be afraid of the world, not— tone. china should be afraid of the world, not the other way around. the us led _ world, not the other way around. the us led western democracies, i blame them for— us led western democracies, i blame them for the past decades of appeasement. they contributed to this point. — appeasement. they contributed to this point, that taiwan could be a flashpoint. — this point, that taiwan could be a flashpoint, but they have passed the point of— flashpoint, but they have passed the point of change and the us is sending — point of change and the us is sending the right messages to china, that china _ sending the right messages to china, that china should be afraid of the world, _ that china should be afraid of the world, not— that china should be afraid of the world, not the other way around. it world, not the other way around. [it leaves world, not the other way around. leaves you in world, not the other way around. it leaves you in a minority of one on the answer to that question. we must leave it there. that's all from this edition of global questions from taipei. i hope we have brought some insights into what people are thinking and feeling about the possibility of a chinese invasion of taiwan and how that might trigger a conflict that has severe global repercussions. thank you to my panel and audience here at the new horizon building and to you wherever you are watching and listening to the building. global questions is a programme that brings you the news behind the headlines. until the next time, goodbye. hello, there. exceptionally mild for the time of year over the last couple of days but things are expected to turn cooler through the upcoming week, closer to the seasonal norm, because of a change to a westerly wind. low pressure bringing spells of wet and windy weather. quite an autumnal week coming up. we lose the showers this evening over many areas and overnight showers in southern and western areas but a lot of dry weather, temperatures 9—12. the breeze is going to pick up out west. low pressure pushing into western areas slowly through the day ringing persistent and heavy rain at times. the odd shower around, but many places starting monday on a fine note, some sunshine. turning wetter in northern ireland and for much of scotland heading through the day. temperatures up to 18 in the south, the mid—teens in the north. this is bbc news. the headlines at lipm. at least 153 people, most of them teenagers and young adults celebrating halloween, have died in a crush in the south korean capital seoul. president yoon suk—yeol promises a thorough investigation. translation: a tragedy and disaster | that should not have happened took| place in the heart of seoul. i hope the people who are injured will get better soon. kent police has confirmed a number of incendiary devices were thrown at a border force centre in dover this morning. we don't yet know a motive for this, despite those three bombs, we believe there something like petrol bombs, they were thrown the centre. as the controversy grows over the home secretary suella braverman

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