abortions costing quite a money, that was because otherwise the government would have been defeated. this is going to happen on a regular basis. it did when we last had in effect a minority government between 74-79, effect a minority government between 74—79, they were defeated all the time and if they were undefeated they were making manoeuvres all the time. apart from anything else, it's exhausting for the prime minister and the government. if you add on top of that brexit, and the beginnings of a sort of opening within the government, about what has really been going on, now they are in the cabinet position themselves very differently, this all feels very fragile. the point is they weren't public therefore, it was a very tight ship. theresa may has lost her two key advisers. when we hear today that apparently david davis, the man in charge of brexit, is struggling with those red lines, the tough lines theresa may wants to keep two, does that resonate with the people you talk to? yes, and this is the most interesting of all the developments i think, an two fronts. before she called that silly election, they were all in the cabinet i think as scared of her as the cabinets of margaret thatcher we re the cabinets of margaret thatcher were scared of her at her peak in the mid to late 1980s. they didn't even speak critically behind the scenes. now she is so weakened, we are getting... clearly david davis knew this would happen. david davis, senior media adviser saying he was unhappy, and clearly not consulted, about, for example, in her tory party conference speech last october with britain was going to pull out of the european court. this is a p pa re ntly of the european court. this is apparently something david davis has found very, very difficult, to begin a negotiation with all these red lines kind of defining britain's position, to a point of extreme rigidity. that's interesting in itself, but the fact that we know about it is also interesting. because cabinet ministers feel free now to indicate where they are concerned about her, in a way they hadn't been before. how do the rest of you see it, and indeed talk about it? on the issue of the dup, it's extraordinary what has happened here. arlene foster, the head of the dup has been described as the second most powerful people in british politics, her party is propping up the british government. a few months ago she was in serious trouble. there were assembly elections in northern ireland, the dup did very, very badly and a resurgence of sinn fein confidence. there were talks about her having to resign over the renewable heating policy. it is amazing how things change. and the fragility was there in northern ireland. we have these talks that are separate, about the internal power—sharing agreement in northern ireland. they are ongoing, they have been delayed and delayed again into next week. we have been here before. there may be a deal but i think sinn fein, who are newly confident because of their own electoral successes, are going to be very closely watching the dup. they are not comfortable with the idea, even though they will receive a lot of thisi billion, not very though they will receive a lot of this 1 billion, not very comfortable with the dup being so close to a conservative government. steve was talking about margaret thatcher before. in the 805 they said there i5 before. in the 805 they said there is no alternative, now you have incredibly weak there5a may and it i5 incredibly weak there5a may and it is still tina, there is no alternative. i5n't is still tina, there is no alternative. isn't that what is keeping her in office in the first place? yes. if there was a formidable figure waiting in the wings, if they're worth the equivalent, as there was in 1990 when margaret thatcher finally fell and michael heseltine, john major and michael heseltine, john major and douglas hurd. .. and michael heseltine, john major and douglas hurd... i don't think she would be here now. the fact is there isn't. those who want to be leader aren't sure they would win at this point, so they are not clamouring for a leadership contest they might lose. that keeps her in place. this is the worst thing which could happen to this country, in thi5 could happen to this country, in this critical time you need not fragile government, you need a 5trong government, otherwise we will be black mailed from outside and in5ide, becau5e brexit, becau5e be black mailed from outside and in5ide, becau5e brexit, because of terrori5m, becau5e in5ide, becau5e brexit, because of terrori5m, because of the economy, becau5e terrori5m, because of the economy, because of the changing on atmosphere all over the world, political. there5a may cannot actually guide this country to a deal, a good deal, or even a bad deal, a good deal, or even a bad deal, vi5—a—vi5 brexit and that negotiation with the european union. also, if suddenly it is free abortion for the irish girls to come to this country and the second, what kind of blackmail will happen? so you need a very strong government. i believe they should find an alternative. the conservative party should find an alternative as soon as possible, and actually before september, otherwise the country will collapse. before party conference? yes, terrorism, three attacks in less than three months. it is very dangerous. ok, the conservatives say we managed to maintain security, we kept this country safe. everybody wanted to make use of the experience of britain and terrorism, european, middle eastern... and she was home secretary for years. exactly. we have to be very precise here. this country needs a strong government, not vulnerable, not fragile, not weak. that is the name of the game. just on that, you're talking about the lack of opponents at the moment. some people, particularly those in the city, the likes of philip hammond, he would be seen as a possible alternative. and boris johnson as well but you are saying nobody is moving at the moment, there's no sense of that. we do have a situation now where as you are saying, we have a very interesting perspective where we now have different versions of what people wa nt different versions of what people want brexit within the cabinet. this is highly dangerous in negotiation, when your opposite number can see it being played out. philip hammond we nt being played out. philip hammond went to germany this week and said something very different to his colleagues back home, and david davis. the irony is that the moment the brexit route for britain is the theresa may blueprint. she has set out a strong, hard brexit, out of the single market and customs union and nojurisdiction the single market and customs union and no jurisdiction under the the single market and customs union and nojurisdiction under the ecg. —— ecj. people are getting uncomfortable with that in government. will there be a point where that changes? negotiations are fiow on. where that changes? negotiations are now on. whether these tie into things domestically before the autumn may dictate if we see someone moving against or not. you see, the problem with that theory... a strong government would be a good thing to have at the moment but a change of leader does not change the broader situation. that prime minister would still be at the head of a minority government, dependent on the dup, in exactly the same way. whoever he or she happened to be wouldn't dare risk calling another election unless there are about 50 points ahead in there are about 50 points ahead in the polls, given that theyjust lost one 01’ the polls, given that theyjust lost one or nearly lost one when they began it 25 points ahead in some polls. so the prospect of this house of commons with a minority government continuing for some time is quite strong, i think. so even if they change the prime minister... it's a mute point because we are in the situation we are in. i would say the situation we are in. i would say the whole idea of brexit, even if she had got her majority of 50, as she had got her majority of 50, as she more or less expected to get... because the whole process, it's two things. its government, it would be nice to have at least a government that was in a minority government and beholden to a party in northern ireland, because playing the orange ca rd ireland, because playing the orange card isa ireland, because playing the orange card is a sidetrack, for any government. but, you know, brexit is... brexit! there will be a whole university course... brexit is brexit. it was always going to be a government destroyer, because the reality of negotiating this separation... steve are no better than us because he lives in westminster, but i thought in addition to the 20 point lead, which was a temptation to go to the country, she wanted to roll over the mandate. they understood they couldn't get the deal done before the next election in 2020, so if they kicked that can down the road, which is classic european union thinking by the way, take it a little further... another 18 months of 24 months and we can come up with a solution or a fudge. i think that's where they would have been at in any case. i agree with that. that's one of the many twists in all of this, that they are running out of this, that they are running out of time. this is meant to be done by march 2019. to keep within the two year time limit, which one of the architects of it john year time limit, which one of the architects of itjohn bruton, me they deliberately set at two years to make it impossible for anyone to leave. we've already several months and and nothing has happened. i'm alarmed, you say yes, the government will continue. for how long is it going to continue? it could be yea rs. going to continue? it could be years. there will be illness, there will be death, there will be by—elections... will be death, there will be by—elections. .. suppose ten will be death, there will be by—elections... suppose ten people decided to rebel against the government, what would happen? i cannot see this government lasting, actually. labour had a rebellion this week. we haven't even mentioned the opposition, which is part of the dynamic of governance in this country. labour are not in power. the conservatives are in power. theresa may is heading a government, the cabinet. a divided cabinet. is this the best formula to control? where does that take us question does it take us to another general election? try and find a strong government? i think she gambled and she failed, and she should step down and leave the stage for other people who can form a strong government and go for the brexit negotiation, look at the services in this country, challenge labour, impose or say we are britain, we are a major player in the international community. to have a government very vulnerable like this, and you have a prime minister who gambled and failed and still at the head of the government, i believe this is absolutely unacceptable. even labour have its own contradictions about brexit. this is the irony, asjeremy corbyn becomes more and more popular among young people, when they find out what he actually thinks what he thinks about brexit, which is very anti—eu. that will have problems for labour. i think brexit is the thing, the main issue facing britain at the moment for the next few years. neither party has a coherent message on it. both are confused, both are conflicted. this is what is going to probably of the next government and when the government will be formed. steve, a quick thought from you. you have touched on it to some degree. your sense, what people say to you about the internal workings in downing street now? you say there is no one obvious to take over. what is your sense of theresa may, how much do we know? it feels much weaker, not just politically, do we know? it feels much weaker, notjust politically, that's obvious, but in terms of its resources and sense of power. number ten is physically a weaker entity than the treasury, which is this mighty department down the road. so exercises power through authority, and the authority of those advisers working with the prime minister fostered she had to get rid of her two advisers, who terrified ministers and all the rest of it. they are gone. the head of policy, was there before, is gone, she has just replaced him with someone else. there are new people moving in. her authority's greatly diminished, and those in the cabinet who work as i said earlier, in awe and fear of her, she was so popular, they are now beginning to feel assertive and muscular, and that's why we know what david davis thinks this morning. that's why we know what philip hammond thinks. so it is a com pletely philip hammond thinks. so it is a completely changed dynamic in this government. you are right to suggest she won't recover that authority. once you've lost a kind of mandate in the way she did in that early election, you don't recoverfrom that. but i don't think there will be an early election, because the conservatives can't afford to hold one because they might lose it.|j might suggest people watching are breathing a sigh of relief! it depends on your view, obviously. let's turn our attention is outwards and talk a little bit about the middle east. coalition forces have almost recaptured the city of mosul in iraq, and in syria the defacto isis capital raqqa is surrounded, but still the jihadists fight on and the civilian toll is huge — some half a million people have been killed, and millions more left homeless and displaced. abdel bari atwan. .. your assessment of isis, its strength or otherwise, who is in charge, your take on where we are? we have been talking about mosul falling for a long time and still hasn't happened. we must talk more about the middle east on this programme and other programmes. middle east is coming to us. not only are we going to the middle east, terrorism is coming to us. look at the other side of the mediterranean was that there is libya, and absolutely failed state and a source of trouble. look at egypt, it is bankrupt. there are 90-95,000,000 egypt, it is bankrupt. there are 90—95,000,000 people there. look at syria, about 500,000 were killed. look at iraq, look at other parts, even the gulf region, saudi arabia and qatada are struggling and fighting. middle east is very important, we have failed state, not just isis an islamic state that a lot of problems. the question now, 0k, lot of problems. the question now, ok, ican lot of problems. the question now, ok, i can send some sort of euphoria. isis is going to be defeated, they are about to lose mosul, they are about to lose raqqa. but there are two very important questions. what will happen to isis after that? the second question, what will happen to the coalition which is fighting isis? is it going to be intact? is it going to be strong as it used to be? because they were united simply because of isis. answering the first question, i believe there are two choices for isis. the first one, to resolve itself, which is impossible. the second one, to go underground and turned a plan b, terrorism, and they are shrinking in territories. the third option is to go to other branches, like pakistan and afghanistan, like olivia and syria, like libya... we don't know. yemen. if they go to these branches and they have the infrastructure there, instead of having isis in at iraq and syria, you will have isis 19 branches all over the world. going underground, they will be more dangerous. why? because they will be, they will get rid of the burden of running a state, a caliphate. now, they used to have 9 million under their rule. if they get rid of that, you know, if this country struggling with health care, struggling with health care, struggling with health care, struggling with education, struggling with education, struggling with education, struggling with services, so imagine a country, isis example he lacks the experience. those men are the men of saddam hussein, abu bakr al—baghdadi is just saddam hussein, abu bakr al—baghdadi isjust a saddam hussein, abu bakr al—baghdadi is just a front. those people can disappear underground and can be very, very dangerous. so we shouldn't actually celebrate the death of isis. we should prepare ourselves for the next age. it is interesting, because if you think about the history of all of this... isis descended from zarqawi's networks, which descended from a pledge of allegiance to osama bin laden. we can go back decades on this thing has metastasised through the muslim world. i agree entirely. i think that menu of choices you listed being open to isis, i've think they will take all of them. i think they will take all of them. i think as they are squeezed out of mosul... you have to understand, they are surrounded in the old city of mosul. you cannot really get a car down the street in many parts of these quarters. they still have tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of civilians under their control in this warren. the allied forces are trying to be as careful as they can be, but there is still huge civilian casualties. they will go away. the bigger question, and this is one that goes back three years to when isis first arrived in iraq, was you could find any day of the week in the newspaper talking about security services being concerned about kids going to syria, kids going to iraq to make jihad and then coming. we know some of the attacks in france and brussels were perpetrated by people who had been in syria and had come home. i wonder to what degree the security services in britain know of people who have travelled to syria and iraq, have worked or gone online and read isis' main form of communication and are thinking of stuff... this is a real problem... it applies in lots of european countries. they survive on publicity. every time someone comes out and either kills 50 people in a 95v out and either kills 50 people in a gay nightclub in orlando and says, i pledge allegiance to isis. or runs 15 people over on london bridge on this, i pledge allegiance, this is a great success for them and allows them to sustain themselves in all these other countries where they are running away too. one positive, if you like, as the shrink in territory happens, their finances are being affected here. they're taking control of these oilfields and having the money to finance this. that would be interesting, how that plays out. as you pointed out, it could be that they take a different strategy or underground attacks. that is a huge positive, that it is going to affect them and perhaps their recruitment. a lot of the people that went over where getting paid a lot of money. how are they funding itand paid a lot of money. how are they funding it and can they continue to do it? they lost 80% of funding it and can they continue to do it? they lost 8096 of their income, because now they don't control the oil fields, the gas fields and if they do control it, they can't export it, they cannot sell it. these are important things. but when you convert them in mosul and raqqa it means they don't need this amount of money. they used to receive about $3 million, equal to export of oil and gas. now they don't need, they will go underground. i would like to remind you that the people, the cost of the 11th of september, $250,000 only. it didn't cost that much. so they don't need a lot of money, as they used it. the problem, the problem... we should look at the incubators who actually give their oxygen to those people in iraq and syria and all parts of the middle east. if we want to reduce the danger to the minimum we should deprive them from incubators. we should deprive them from the grassroots, from frustrated young people. unemployment is extremely huge, instability is the name of the game in the middle east. you have a new generation completely frustrated. no jobs, no you have a new generation completely frustrated. nojobs, no future, no hope at all, so we have to look at it if we want to solve this problem. haven't people been warning about that for some years? exactly. your argument is western governments have needed this question up we know about that and have said it several times but nobody paid attention to it. we have to look at the roots of the problem and try to find a solution which actually can treat it from the roots, not actually trying, 0k, let from the roots, not actually trying, ok, let us go and look at security measures. security measures... saudi arabia and the gcc isolate qatada and say it's all their fault. this is ridiculous. it is not the fault of qatar. there are 7000 saudis fighting in the ranks of isis. from chechnya, from pakistan, from tunisia. from tunisia about 5000 are fighting under the isis flag. why? you were right in your introductory comments to say we have to give a lot more thought to this, because the middle east is coming to us and you gave the example, absolutely rightly of course, the refugee crisis, if anything will deepen. when i wrote the book the rise of the outsiders, it was amazing to see the outsiders, it was amazing to see the degree to which that was defining the politics of many european countries, from the vulnerability of angela merkel for a time, to the way social democrats in northern europe... all responding to that process. you mention the fact that process. you mention the fact that the isis leadership are basically saddam hussein's old republican guard. so that western intervention has triggered all of this. what should the west do, in terms of dealing with this? i can't see... what's not happening is american leadership, that will be interesting. how the trump administration, is talking about more troops in afghanistan, maybe we will hear more about that in the next few months. they are quite happy to keep it at arms distance, they are there behind... steve, you are absolutely right. we should change all our plans, our way of thinking when we look at the middle east. isis defeated, ok, now american president... who does the war against american president... who does the waragainst iran? let american president... who does the war against iran? let us finish from this terrorism and then move to that. this is the problem. we have to stop wars in the middle east, but by all means and concentrate on people, how to make their life much better, in order to keep them away from us. laughter this is a problem. we have to leave it there, even though as you say, you're quite right, we must be talking about it more. we will return to i'm sure. thank you to all of you. that's all we have time for this week. please do join me again next week, same time, same place but for now thank you for watching and goodbye. hello. a quiet weekend of weather awaits. we started off quite cloudy in actual fact, as you can see from this weather watcher's picture from earlier on. a lot of cloud generally across the country. there were some breaks. beautiful start across cornwall. not a cloud in the sky along that cornish heel. but you can see it is this slice or the break in the cloud that is all going to gradually drift steadily eastwards. an improving picture for many of us with the exception of the far north and west. here a weak weather front will bring more cloud and outbreaks of rain into scotland, northern ireland and perhaps the north—west of england by the end of the day. the rain should remain fairly light and patchy. maybe in eastern scotland we might keep some of that brightness and temperatures will respond. highs of around 18 or 19 celsius. but underneath the cloud and rain for northern ireland and western scotland, 15—17 the high. despite some cloud into north wales, generally speaking for england and wales it is a pleasant afternoon. dry with some breaks in the cloud, some sunshine coming through and temperatures high teens, maybe up as high as 22 celsius. that weather front will gradually move its way south and east through the night. it will pep up a little bit as it pushes into england and wales, so some heavier bursts of rain overnight. that is good news for the gardens and for the growers out there. and it will lingerfirst thing in the morning across the south—east corner. at the same time, the wind is strengthening. gusting to gale force in the northern isles. breezy conditions generally through scotland and a cluster of showers which will continue to be driven in by that westerly wind off the coast there. but, once we lose the rain in the south—east corner there will be a good slice of dry, bright weather yet again, just like today, almost a repeat performance into the middle of the afternoon. and similar temperatures as well. 16—23 the overall high. as we move out of sunday into monday, this little fella here may well bring the threat of a few showers for the start of wimbledon. yes, there is the potential for a few showers during the day, fingers crossed they are fairly light and they pass through pretty quickly. it does look as though we will continue to seek some unsettled weather to the south on monday. more heavy and persistent rain into the west by tuesday. until then enjoy your weekend. good afternoon. london's mayor is urging theresa may to appoint commissioners to run kensington and chelsea council after its leader resigned over the grenfell tower fire. sadiq khan welcomed the decision by both nicholas paget—brown and his deputy to reign, but said public trust could not and his deputy to quit, but said public trust could not be restored by other members of the council. one local councillor has insisted the council is capable of handling by itself the aftermath of the fire. it was the breakdown of this, the first cabinet meeting at the council since the fire at grenfell to you they're led to the resignation

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