and two new omicron variants found in more than a dozen states, as covid cases begin to rise once again. good morning. and welcome to "way too early," on this tuesday, may 3rd. i'm jonathan lemire. in a potentially ground-breaking shift in american constitutional law, the supreme court appears poised to strike down the landmark roe v. wade decision. according to a leaked draft opinion, published last night, by "politico," a majority of the supreme court is prepared to overturn the federal right to abortion. the leak of the 98-page document is unprecedented in the court's modern history. the draft opinion was reportedly offered by justice samuel alito, and circulated back in february. alito writes in part this. ro ex was egregiously wrong from the start. its reasoning was exceptionally weak and the decision has had damaging consequences. it is time to heed the constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people's elected representatives. nbc news has not obtained or been able to independently verify the authenticity of the document. and the supreme court has declined to comment. the final opinion is expected in late june or early july. meaning it's possible that justices final votes and the decision may change. joining us now as we get right into this is former u.s. attorney and msnbc contributor barbara mcquade. so glad you're with us today. several justices as "politico" reports are reportedly voting to overturn roe, when it had been previously deemed quote settled precedent. when questioned by senators during confirmation hearings. how does that square with this decision? >> well, i think it shows that they have unlimited power when they make it to the supreme court, they're there for life, that they're appointed by the president, and so they can change their mind. it may be that despite the fact that it is settled precedent, they never said that meant they would never overturn it. and i think and you used the term unprecedented to describe the leak here, and unprecedented is a good word to describe this case, because they do simply overturn roe v. wade, and i think one of the things that is so damage tock the court, as an institution, and to the american tradition of our courts, is that it creates the appearance at the very least that the court can change on a whim, that it can change on the makeup on the court and as justice society society said during the oral argument -- justice sotomayor said during the oral arguments she wondered outloud how the court's legitimacy could withstand the stench of the decision making and the decision making of the constitution is nothing more than a political act. >> and certainly this was the body of government that for a long time was mercht meant to be above politics. that certainly seems to be changing, the perception anyway, tell us more about the ruling and also this leak, how the ruling and the leak could change the image of the court. >> well, first, the ruling itself, jonathan, is i think far worse than most people even feared. it doesn't just uphold the mississippi 15-week ban on abortions, it says roe is gone. that means a state has the power to ban any abortions. rape, we talk about six week, all the way to the back to the beginning, from conception, that is a huge mind boggling change it. completely rejects roe. it completely rejects its reasoning. which includes this substantive due process privacy right that is also the basis for other important decisions, like same-sex marriage, inner racial marriage and use of contraceptives, so if this is gone, so perhaps are all the other rights in jeopardy. in terms of the leak, and its unprecedented nature, the court has always been air tight with leak, and it is one of the points that i think has given the public at least some comfort that it is not a political body, that they're different opinions that reasonable minds disagree and this is the best shot at it. the fact that it was leaked suggests that someone has a political agenda. i don't know whether that is a conservative agenda, to try to lock this decision in, and not give anybody wiggle room to change their vote, or if it is an expression of outrage by the more liberal justices, and their starves, that look, america, what's about to happen, this is our last shot at trying to pressure somebody into a different vote. or even still a possibility, and an effort by conservatives to sort of dull the uproar that is inevitable when the final opinion comes out. or simply a matter of someone on the staff who is outraged by it and wanted the world to see. so we don't know. whatever it is, it is bad for the court because now it creates this perception that votes will change, or maintained because of public pressure as opposed to what the justices genuinely believe is the right decision. >> it cannot be overstated, the ramifications of this, in the legal, political, and societal. barbara mcquade, we are looking for your analysis all day long on msnbc, thank you for starting us off today on "way too early." we will have a lot more on the story as our show continues. right now we will piv to the war in ukraine. hundreds of civilians are trapped in the steel plant in mariupol as the long-awaited evacuation faltered yesterday. the head of a regional police patrol tells the "washington post" that a convoy of buses was supposed to leave for a safer destination but it did not work out and another attempt to get people to safety. about 200 civilians including 20 children are still holed up at that factory, the last pocket of ukraine resistance in that besieged port city. in the interview with television, president volodymyr zelenskyy said the remaining civilians were afraid to board the buses, because they thought they might be taken to russia, against their will. according to the russian military, some of the people who were evacuated over the weekend indeed went to areas controlled by moscow, while others left for ukrainian controlled territories. meanwhile ukrainian officials say russian forces intensified attacks on the steel plant, bombing, quote, all day yesterday. joining us now, live from southeastern ukraine, nbc news foreign correspondent matt bradley. matt, good morning. give us the very latest as the situation there in mariupol and those evacuation efforts. >> reporter: yes, jonathan, i can tell you what is happening where i am, in zaporzhiazhia, we're a 30-minute drive from what is called the line of control, that's the spot where kyiv-controlled ukraine becomes russian controlled ukraine and needless to say a very dangerous position geographically and contested and in a state of war and we are continuing to see people and you can see them right over here, who are arrive forecast those regions -- who are arriving from those regions. not far from where i'm standing right now. you a day yesterday, would he did not see, as you noted, those people from mariupol, from underneath that azov steel plant but instead we saw lines an lines of cars arriving from areas around it, from within the area of mariupol, from the other southern areas occupied by the russians for several weeks and what happens, they come here and you can see all of the police officers here, they get registered, the cars get registered, their i.d.s get checked and you can't see if from where i am now, since yesterday, the police have pushed all of the press and indeed a lot of media here awaiting for these arrivals, if you look over here, they pushed us all off to the side, but if you look at the cars, you can see that there are signs that say, children, white little banners, they are pieces of cloth, hanging from mirrors or antenna. this is to signal, don't shoot. that there's civilians on board. but we have seen in other parts of the country vehicles that have been peppered with bullets and shrapnel, even though they have those signs showing that they contain civilians. so in answer to your question, i don't have an answer for when these people will be arriving. we just have as little information as you do. i spoke to one official here who said we will not get any real information even though we're standing here waiting for this, because the united nations doesn't consider any civilians to have been evacuated until they cross that line of control. 30 minutes from where i am. so we will have possibly a 30-minute heads up for when these people will be coming out of that deeply-contested battered territory of mariupol. until then, as mentioned, we are stillsee seeing quite a few civilians arriving minute by minute. >> the world will be nervously watching for any updates and this comes as russian forces step up attacks elsewhere in the country including one in odesa. nbc's matt bradley, thank you very much. we will have more on the war in ukraine later in the show. also, still ahead, covid infections are rising once again from coast to coast. as new, as two new sub variants are emerging outside the united states. plus, a far right extremist group wanted to protect a texas congressman during the capital attack. now the january 6th committee is trying to find out why. those stories and a check of the weather when we come back. d a ce weather when we come back. if you really wanna find out what you're made of, you can forget the personality tests and social media quizzes. because the only way you're ever gonna know is by heading into the big, wild, raging so-damned-beautiful- it-hurts world and finding out for yourself. were you born to follow a path? or were you born free? these are the things we thought about when we made the new grand cherokee. made for what you're made of. ♪ ♪ my name is douglas. i'm a writer/director you're made of. and i'm still working. in the kind of work that i do, you are surrounded by people who are all younger than you. i had to get help somewhere along the line to stay competitive. i discovered prevagen. i started taking it and after a period of time, my memory 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states, efforts to bring protesters to the capitol, efforts to persuade state officials to overturn the election, and efforts to seek presidential pardons for those caught up in the scandal. the committee also wants to speak with congressman mill brooks who say trump asked him to rescind the 202 election as a results. this is the conversation that vaun hilliard had with congressman brooks back in march. >> did he directly tell you to fight to decertify the election, the 202 election. >> he did not use the word decertify. he used the word rescind. >> rescind. what did that mean to you? >> well i'm a lawyer, rescind means, that you render it null and void. >> do you guys have the power to do that in congress? >> no. >> and then immediately remove joe biden, i guess that would be through impeachment? >> through the rescission of the election results. >> and then did he say that he wanted congress to immediately put him back into the white house? >> okay, you're using the word congress. my statement doesn't say congress. we never got that far, because i explained to the president that what he asked is legally impossible and it violates the united states constitution, and i'm not going to do it. >> congressman brooks says trump mentioned having a new election. the congressman who has been a staunch ally of donald trump has since lost the former president's endorsement for his re-election bid. as for the president's former white house doctor, now the congressman from jackson, ronny jackson, the committee wants to know about encrypted communication between members of the oath keepers, on the day of january 6th. they said jackson needs to carry because of quote critical data to protect. not clear what the data is. the committee would like to find out. all three congressman have predictably declined to cooperate. as covid cases rise again in just about every state, hospitalizations are starting to go up as well. this, as health experts are also keeping an eye on new variants emerging abroad. nbc news correspondent emily aketa has more. >> covid infections are climbing coast to coast and it's not just the number of cases, hospitalizations in parts of the country are starting to pick up, too. the cdc now urging residents in 56 high-risk counties to mask up. two-thirds of those areas are in the state of new york. >> i'm not going to stand here and say we're looking at shutdowns. i said we're going to protect the health of new yorkers. >> national case loads are only a fraction of what we saw in the winter. the new york city's recent numbers rival last year's surge. still, the upward trend isn't stopping from the most-watched formal event, from fashion's biggest night at the met, to the week's white house correspondents dinner. notably absent was america's top doc, who back pedalled over comments when he said we're out of the pandemic phase. >> that does not mean that the pandemic is over. by no means is it over. >> a possible sign of the future, south africa, where omicron first popped up. research there which has not yet been peer-reviewed, shows new sub variants are dodging antibodies from previous infections. >> it's not going to disappear. we're going to have to learn to live with this virus. and as we do, with influenza. >> so what is important to know about the cases we're seeing right now and the variants? >> the cases we're seeing now are not severe, for the most part, if you're unvaccinated you could get a severe case. >> a mutating virus blurring the path to normalcy. >> cases are spiking here in new york city as well. we will stay on that. still ahead in sports, we'll have the highlights from a big opening night for the nhl playoffs. plus, the wnba has plans to honor one of its biggest stars, who is currently behind bars in russia. 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can't get in a cardboard box. that's how healthier happens together with cvs. high above. the clock stops. behind him. shot, saved. my goodness. that shot. the l.a. kings have yet another lead. goal. >> chaos in the crease leads to the game-winning goal for the kings late in the third period of their stanley cup playoff opener against the oilers. the goalie simply can't make that pass in front of his own net. the first round of the western conference series. the closest contest on what was otherwise a net of blowouts kicking off the stanley cup playoffs. in minneapolis, the st. louis blues beat the minnesota wild 4-0. you saw the goal there. and in the eastern conference, the carolina hurricanes smoked my bruins 5-1 and they played game one there as well. and up in toronto, the maple leaves netted five goals in a shutout of the two-time defending champion, tampa bay lightning. those are all game ones though. a bunch more games tonight. turning now to the nba playoffs. another night of the opening second round there. out west in phoenix, the suns team that dominated the regular season, but struggled in the first round a bit, well, they're back, they showed up in game one against the dallas mavericks. never trailing in a game in a game that was not nearly as close as the 121-114 final scores. the mavs got 45 points from their star luka doncic. in the east, the miami heat beat the philadelphia 76ers, 106-92. philly of course played without the injured star joel embiid who will also miss game two tomorrow night. the wnba will honor phoenix mercury center brittney griner for the rest of the season with a floor decal, the decal will feature her initials along with her number 42, and will appear on the home court of all 12 teams. the a. p. reports the league also includes the phoenix paying the griner salary and it will not count against the mercury cap. griner has been detained in russia since mid february on drug charges that could carry a pax mum penalty of ten years in prison. she has a hearing set for may 19th. meanwhile, the sports world has further isolated russia from international competition in response to the war in ukraine. the russian women's soccer team has been removed from this summer's european championship. and is now barred from qualifying for the 2023 women's world cup. the announcement from european soccer's governing body yesterday also suspended russian competitions until further notice. meanwhile, allegations of tanking by former cleveland browns head coach hugh jackson could not be substantiated by the nfl. that conclusion coming from the league yesterday, after a 60-day independent review made by jackson that the browns paid or otherwise provided incentives to lose games, while he was at the helm. the original lames that jackson had made came on the heels of a similar scenario described in the racial discrimination suit filed by former miami dolphins head coach brian flores. the yankees active roster were permitted to cross the board near canada for a three game series against the blue jays, indicating that the entire squad is now vaccinated against covid-19. there, the yankees extended their win streak to ten games. a tie-breaking sing until the top of the ninth to put new york past toronto 3-2. and finally, an early submission for catch of the year st. louis. watch this. royals outfielder michael a. taylor scales the wall in center to take away a home run for the cardinals in the fifth inning. he climbs it spiderman-esque. but kansas city, their bats stayed silent and they could not compliment his efforts in the field. time now for the weather, and let's go to meteorologist michelle grossman for the forecast. here in the studio with me today. great to see you. >> great to see you. unfortunately we're talking about more severe weather. tracking a cold front that is going to bring the chance of some storms stretching from the great lakes to parts of texas right now. it is going to move to the east but it is clearly seeing where this cold front. is the heavy rain and the lightning down to the trailing end of it. and this is all going to move to the east and we were talking about a slight risk, where we can see winds gusting up to 60 miles an hour, some damaging hail, and even a chance of a tornadoes and 14 million at risk and that's the bull's eye, and anywhere from louisville, to columbus, and even into western pennsylvania, pittsburgh, you're included there, and notice by wednesday, back to the plains, looking at the focus for the severe weather, 5 million at risk, and the threat becomes a little bit greater, too. so larger hail, two inches or greater and that causes damage on its own. tornadoes likely in some, some strong ones again and tracking winds gusting over 60 miles an hour, even up to 70 at some parts, and talking about rain, heavy rain, we're talking about the potential for flooding as well. here is the bull's eye, tulsa to springfield, looking at one to two inches, and even up to three. jonathan? >> thank you very much. i can't promise that at some point i won't walk over to the board and try to change the forecast. >> that would be awesome. >> great to see you. still ahead, the new warning from u.s. officials that russia may be planning to annex parts of eastern ukraine. what that means for the ongoing fight overseas. plus, much more on the overnight reactions of the bombshell report by "politico," that the supreme court may be poised to strike down roe v. wade. we're back in a moment. a lot to get to. r copd. ♪ birds flyin' high ♪ ♪ you know how i feel ♪ (coughing) ♪ breeze driftin' on by ♪ ♪ you know how i feel ♪ copd may have gotten you here, but you decide what's next. start a new day with trelegy. ♪ ...feelin' good ♪ no once-daily copd medicine has the power to treat copd in as many ways as trelegy. with three medicines in one inhaler, trelegy helps people breathe easier and improves lung function. it also helps prevent future flare-ups. trelegy won't 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(burke) get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. ♪we are farmers.bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. switch to xfinity mobile for half the price of verizon. new and existing customers get amazing value with our everyday pricing. switch today. welcome back to "way too early," it's 5:30 a.m. on the east coast, 2:30 out west. i'm jonathan lemire. president biden travels to alabama today, to tour one of the factories manufacturing weapons that are being provided to ukraine. the lockheed martin plant is producing high powered weapons including jat javelin antitank missiles. the u.s. and allies have provided billions of dollars of aid to ukraine to defend from the russian invasion. the united states is warning that russia may try to claim more ukrainian territory as its own in the coming days. in a briefing yesterday, the state department officials point to u.s. intelligence that reportedly shows that russia has plans to hold fraudulent referendums in the separatist-controlled cities of donetsk and kherson and citizens would express support for becoming part of russia, before moscow would install kremlin-backed leaders in elected positions. in late february, one day before the russia invasion began, moscow recognized them independent of ukraine, likely laying ground work for further action that is now expected at some point this month. joining us now, national courier report fore are the wall street, my friend vivian, great to see you this morning, we heard from president biden last week, he proposed a $33 billion aid package, he's going to have military and humanitarian support for ukraine, he's urging congress to pass it as quickly as possible. tell us how likely it is to pass, but also the size of that package, and what does that indicate as to how the u.s. officials think this war is going to go in the months ahead. >> jonathan, good to see you. so president biden obviously continuing his push, wanting to continue to pour as much aid, as much money as possible into ukraine, of course the ukrainians have been feeding all over the world and they continue to campaign for that, and congress is doing very well, this is one of the areas in the midterm election year, where the president does have a fair amount of bipartisan support. there's very, very little pushback in terms of the need to continue and sustain support for ukraine. and as far as the amount goes, obviously the u.s. officials telling us that it's going to be a very protracted, prolonged campaign, and that they believe that they need to continue to essentially bolster ukrainian forces, and not only bolster but also kind of taper and, sorry, tailor the aid, to ukraine's needs, to the evolving battleground dynamics that we're seeing, especially with the war now shifting more eastward, closer to the russian border. a lot of different and shifting needs as far as what they need, and this is what the u.s. and the special members of congress are trying to address with these discussions of aid. >> priority number one for the united states is to get weapons and equipment to ukraine, but priority number two seems to be to keep the european alliance together, keep everyone marching in the same direction. you know, we have seen house speaker pelosi, was over in ukraine, in recent day, and also dropping in on poland, to visit president duda there, talk to us about the status of where europe stands, in terms of countries like poland, that have really stepped up, in terms of accepting refugees, and there is talk about the eu potentially ban on all russian energy imports. is there fear among u.s. officials that if this war does go on for months and months and months that the alliance could wobble? >> it is certainly the case. we saul the close recent election in france. and sort of anti-nato candidates coming out very close to being on top in france, and a lot of questions then within the alliance, are we as strong as we say we are. and president macron has won that election, so everybody is sort of breathing a sigh of relief and saying that the nato alliance is good to go for now. but obviously, so much at stake with regard to just the rattling of security in eastern europe right now, where a lot of officials are saying that essentially they're having to redraw the security plans for the next couple of years. u.s. officials have been trying to prioritize a lot of assets, a lot of military assets, especially toward the indo pacific, addressing those threats, and europe is sort of a phased out sort of older world issue that officials have been pulling away from, pulling away. >> from now, you see that they're trying, they're starting to talk so much about the european security. and those discussions are obviously happening very closely with allies, and you mentioned speaker pelosi who is just in ukraine and in poland, the highest-ranking u.s. official to have gone into kyiv since the beginning of this war, and she is definitely there to assert that the u.s. remains committed to ukraine's struggle, but also to everything that the rest of europe is going to have to endure to support ukraine with refugees, with aids, with military assistance. all of this is looking at this as a long haul. it is not going to be a quick war by any stretch. and remember, this is also going on for eight years as far as the ukrainians are concerned, and so they're just trying to keep that momentum alive and well. >> officials i spoke to in recent days say we should start to think about measuring this in years perhaps not months. we're going to have you back again real soon. thank you for spending some time with us on such a busy day. we really appreciate it. coming up, we're live with cnbc, to see what's driving the markets this morning, after a rollercoaster session on the first trading day in may. plus, spirit airlines turns down a major merger. that's straight ahead on "way too early." my a1c stayed here, it needed to be here. ruby's a1c is down with rybelsus®. my a1c wasn't at goal, now i'm down with rybelsus®. mom's a1c is down with rybelsus®. 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(vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more. time you in for business. for that, let's bring in our friend julianna tatelbaum of cnbc, she joins us live from london. good morning. great to see you. the u.s. stocks staged a late comeback yesterday. after the s&p 500 and nasdaq composite hit new lows for the year. investors will be watching the may policy meeting which i believe kicks off today. what can we expect from the fed? >> that's right, john and after yesterday's volatile trading session, u.s. futures right now point to a flat start to trade. the key mark yesterday that really grabbed investors attention was the u.s. treasury yield. and the yield curve. we have a 10-year u.s. treasury yield, 6.3%, the first time it has -- 3%. and it is the first time since 2019 and beyond yields rise across the curve and seeing that happen in europe as well, you want to keep an eye on the u.s. ten-year treasury yield today and tomorrow, and what are investors expecting, a 50 basis points rate hike and more aggressive commentary from the fed chair, jerome powell, as he tries to convince the market that the fed is going to take action to combat surging inflation. >> so the energy giant bp has reported the highest quarterly earnings in more than a decade despite posting a massive loss following its exit from russia in the wake of the invasion. tell us how that happens. >> well, this is a fascinating story, and there's a lot of pushes and pulls in these results from bp. effectively, bp has benefitted massively from the soaring prices of hydrocarbons and really exceptional oil and gas revenues, but on the other hand, bp, in the days after russia's invasion of ukraine, announced that they would be exiting russia the well, bp has a nearly 20% stake in the russian oil company so that is not so easy to exit overnight. what we have learned from b p today, they have taken an impairment and written down a value of the nearly 20% stake to nearly zero. that meant a $25 billion hit. so it was a complicated set of results from bp. net-net, investors cheered the decision. and bp shares are trading higher this morning. they did boost their buyback program. so that is helping as well. >> and one more for you, spirit airlines, which is the subject of perhaps more punch lines than they would like, is sticking with its deal with frontier airlines, though it rejected a more lucrative offer from jet blue. tell us why and what's next. >> well, it seems like regulatory concerns are really at the heart of spirit's decision making here. they're concerned that the deal with jet blue just wouldn't get by regulators. jet blue is already embroiled in an anti-trust lawsuit of its own. now, jet blue's offer was significantly higher than the deal with frontier. we saw spirit shares pull back yesterday. but putting out a word of caution, that the frontier/spirit deal is by no means done either and some anti-trust experts say that the administration's view toward anti-trust is a little more stringent than those in the past. so this is one to keep an eye on. there is still some uncertainty to go. >> we will do just that. cnbc's julianna tatelbaum live from london, thank you as always. still ahead, we're getting right back to that leaked draft from the supreme court that would overturn roe v. wade. we will have the overnight developments and more reaction next, on "way too early." can a company make the planet a better place? ♪♪ what if it's a company of people working beside friends and neighbors? pursuing 100% renewable energy in our operations. aiming to protect, manage or restore millions of acres of land. and offering you more sustainably sourced products so you can become part of the change. so, can a company make the planet a better place? at walmart, we're working on it, every day. if you really wanna find out what you're made of, you can forget the 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recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. protesters rallied in front of the supreme court late last night, after news of that leaked draft concerning roe v. wade. crowds chanted "abortion is health care," some carried signs with slogans such as legal abortion once and for all. and we won't go back. police quickly installed barricades around the building. abortion rights advocates are trying to hold more protests against the country today. reactions to the leaked draft has been swift on all sides of the issue. planned parenthood tweeted, quote, let's be clear. this is a draft opinion. it's outrageous. it's unprecedented. but it is not final. abortion is your right. and it is still legal. the susan b. anthony list statement an anti-abortion list, released a statement from its president, if the draft opinion made public tonight is the final opinion of the court we wholeheartedly applaud the decision. and from capitol hill, senate majority leader chuck schumer and house speaker nancy pelosi issued a joint statement that reads in part, this, from the two democrats, quote, if the report is accurate, the supreme court is poised to inflict the greatest restriction of rights in the past 50 years. not just on women, but on all americans. every republican senator who supported senator mcconnell and voted for trump justices, pretending this day would never come, will now have to explain themselves to the american people. joining us now, on "way too early," political reporter at the "washington post," amber phillips. good morning, amber. thanks for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> there had been a sense, the supreme court had sort of been dell graphing this might happen -- telegraphing that this happen, in some way restricting abortion rights and to be left with a patch work of solutions state by state. and some republicans lawmakers are reportedly starting to work on federal legislation for a nationwide abortion ban. tell us about that. and how this decision could impact those plans. >> yes, well, the supreme court has been making news since december, even before then, as you just said, to try to restrict abortion. women heard of 15-week abortions in mississippi in december and many court analysts i talked to said they wouldn't take this case if they didn't want to trim back roe v. wade at the very least. after hearing their oral arguments back in december court analysts on both sides thought it is probably most likely the supreme court would okay something like a 15-week ban, so moving up when the court said a person has a constitutional right to an abortion from about 24 weeks to 15 weeks. most people didn't think the court would go as far as overturning roe v. wade. and certainly not as far as the ideological draft opinion that "politico" got from samuel alito. so if that is what the court decide, the court will come up with the most extreme version essentially, of what analysts thought it would do. from there, that motivates republicans in congress to do two things, one, rally their base, say we're almost there, because it's holy grail that we've been trying to get for decades, in america, to ban abortion. and vote us into power in november. and it's possible that republicans could try to put together an abortion ban in the house, i could totally see that passing in the republican-controlled house,rep house. just like a couple months ago, democrats tried to and successfully passed a law to protect the abortion law. there is no federal law on abortion rights, whether someone can or cannot have an abortion. the problem is always the senate, right? democrats could filibuster this. let's say there is a republican president waiting and willing to sign. all it'd take, jonathan, i think is one party to want one issue badly enough to erode the filibuster for this. i could see abortion being the thing for republicans. they're so close on all fronts to making abortion mostly or entirely illegal in the united states. >> you certainly laid out the case there for the republicans. we heard anger from the democrats and the left, saying this is a right being taken away. we know there has been some frustration for abortion activists all along, that president biden isn't outspoken about this and never uses the word "abortion" in his comments about women's health. do you think, though, the public reaction to the leaked draft, is there any chance it could alter the justices' opinions before the final ruling this summer? >> i never say never. i think public opinion, in particular, the backlash to something so extreme as overturning 50 years of supreme court precedence, was one of the arguments that liberal justices used back in december. stephen breyer, in particular, said, i don't think we should be changing any kind of abortion protections of the supreme court because this is just what a generation of women have grown up relying on. to do so would be extreme, to say the least. that didn't seem in oral arguments to win over at least four, and they need five conservative justices. if this draft alito opinion is legitimate and this is the direction the conservative justices are going, they don't care. alito even says essentially, i don't care about public opinion. we're doing what we think is right constitutionally. the question is, of course, as you're getting at, how does that motivate democratic voters ahead of november's midterms. democrats already facing a lot of headwinds, particularly economically. i don't know the answer to that. i will say in 2020, when republicans had just put justice amy coney barrett on the court and there was a lot of concern on the left that we'd see this day right here, right now, it didn't do much to help democrats stay in power. they ended up losing seats to republicans. just keeping their majorities by a very slim amount. >> right. it is a good point indeed. "washington post" amber philips, we appreciate you starting your day with us today. thank you so much. coming up on "morning joe," "politico" talking about the report of supreme court appearing to shoot down roe v. wade. plus, donald trump's insurance on midterms. what is at stake in the buckeye state on gop primary day in ohio. and the latest from the war on ukraine. spokesman john kirby joins us live from the pentagon. "morning joe" a few moments away. 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(vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more. here's to real flavors... real meals. real good. all of knorr's high quality pasta and rice sides are now made with no artificial flavors or preservatives. knorr. taste for good. joiniing us now, "politico" reporter with axios, sarah. good morning. what is the axios 1 big thing today? >> jonathan, axios' 1 big thing is what is next for the supreme court after last night's major leak from "politico" that suggests that the court is poised to overturn re versus wade. what we know, of course, is that nothing is final. this is just a draft opinion. it's going to initiate public scrutiny and intense debate in the public sphere. we're already seeing scores and scores of democrats come out and argue for an expansion of the court or an elimination of the filibuster. what's likely is that folks are going to argue for is a more narrow ruling, trying to appeal to the court to try to, instead of enact this sort of broadside overturning of the ruling, to sort of enact a more narrow approach. now, we're already seeing nationwide protests, as you showed earlier. the women's march announced yesterday that they're going to come out this morning from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on the steps of the supreme court and launch nationwide protests in local courthouses, as well. now, what does this mean, and will it be effective? it's hard to say. if the supreme court ruling we saw in "politico" last night, if the justices were willing to come out and be as aggressive as they were, it is possible that these actions on behalf of democrats are just delaying the inevitable. >> can't be overstated, the significance of this ruling. what it means for the court, yes, but also ramifications, legal, societal, and, of course, political. we are in a midterms year. how do we think, sarah, this is going to play out? how does it animate republicans and democrats ahead of november? >> this is a staggering ruling, you're absolutely right. think about what this means for women. at least 13 states, this would enact a trigger rule, which means that in those places, abortion would immediately become illegal. women especially in the south will have to travel hundreds of miles in order to receive abortions, if that is what they're searching for. this could disproportionately affect women of color and poor women. this, of course, animates the democratic base. we're already seeing, like i mentioned, senate democratic candidates coming out and saying they believe the court should be expanded. trying to get their base to come out and vote for them, so that those decisions can eventually, as they hope, be made in the senate. this is also a staggering ruling because of the language that was used. most people assumed or expected many analysts, of course, that we talked to over months and months before this expected a more nuanced ruling. but as we heard, they would say that, you know, it is a lot more dramatic than expected. >> yeah. certainly, there will be a lot of speculation today about the identity and motivation of the leaker, but the real story here is how this decision, were it come to be, would change so much of american life, legal and political. sarah, thank you so much for being with us today. thanks to all of you for getting up "way too early" on this tuesday morning with us. "morning joe" starts right now. do i have this day an opinion, a personal opinion, on the outcome in roe versus wade? and my answer to you is that i do not. >> do you think there is as fundamental a concern as legitimacy of the court would be involved if roe were to be overturned? >> mr. chairman, i think the legitimacy of the court would be undermined in any case if the court made a decision based on its perception of public opinion. >> so a good judge will consider as precedent of the united states supreme court worthy as treatment of precedent, like any other. >> senator, i said that it's settled as a precedent of the supreme court, entitled the respect under principles of stare decisis. one of the things