ukraine shelled a settlement in a region on the russian side of the border. ukraine says russia launched the attack to justify new attacks on kyiv. >> a u.s. defense official says russia is laying the groundwork for the invasion of donbas, bringing air support, artillery, and command and control units to that region. at last count, russia has about 45,000 troops in the eastern and southern parts of ukraine but many more are still being resupplied after leaving the area around kyiv. in his daily message, president zelenskyy said, "russia wants to destroy donbas. the russian forces are destroying luhansk and donetsk as if they want nothing to be left so there wouldn't be any people left at all." the fight for mariupol has been the bloodiest in the war and the situation may be reaching a tipping point. russian forces reportedly have advanced now into the center of the city, seizing a metal plant where ukrainian troops have been holding out for weeks. we just got word a few minutes ago from ukraine's defense ministry for the first time russia is using long-range bombers to attack mariupol. despite that, the u.s. defense official says russia has still not been able to take control of that city. mariupol's payor says as many as 20,000 civilians have been killed in the siege from with nearly 200,000 more trammed in basements and in shelters. >> this all comes after the flagship of russia's black sea fleet sank late yesterday, dealing a serious military and moral defeat to vladimir putin and the russian forces. the russian defense ministry said the moskva sank aftering with towed to shore after a fire that was caused by an ammunition explosion inside the ship. a western official tells nbc news while the cause is not confirmed the more likely explanation is that it feels struck by ukrainian anti-ship missiles. if the ukrainian account is confirmed, it would be the biggest ship sunk in combat in 40 years. that is a huge win for ukraine. russia is warning the u.s. to stop sending weapons systems to ukraine, sending a formal diplomatic note earlier this week. according to "the washington post," it reads, "we call on the united states and its allies to stop the irresponsible militarization of ukraine, which implies unpredictable consequences for regional and international security." the note was dated tuesday, one day before president biden announced another $800 million in military aid including howitzers and helicopters. >> the united states is not the only country sending weapons to ukraine. slovakia delivered the biggest piece of machinery yet from a country. a soviet 300 air defense system, one part of that system. 48 surface-to-air missiles in all along with four launchers and radar. "the new york times" says slovakia may send more weapons including possibly mig warplanes. ukraine sending damaged tanks, some captured from russia, over the border in slovakia for repair. the czech republic and poland as well so they can be returned to the battlefield. gary kas pa roch is the chairman of human rights foundation, russia pro democracy leader and former chess champion, of course. and nick ford teaches international relations and political science at the university of tampa and is an expert on russia, vladimir putin, and russia's relationship with the former soviet countries including ukraine. gary, your assessment of what we're seeing from vladimir putin, which is to say changing the goal posts. didn't get kyiv like he hoped, didn't roll across the country and take control of the capital as he expected he would, now focusing on the donbas, but that doesn't mean things won't get more violent and uglier quickly like they have in bucha and mariupol. >> actually, things will get uglier because failing to take over kyiv and to have a bloody win, he wants to leave a scorched earth. the fact is he brought the general, known as the butcher of syria, head man of ukraine, indicates that every resort will be used, maybe including chemicals that he authorized to use in syria and of course carpet bombing. putin badly needs a victory, any victory, before may 9th, a day he was to celebrate his military triumph. that's why everything he has will be thrown into donbas area so trying to break ukrainian defense line in the region. >> so, nick, i want to ask you a question, read one of garry kasparov's tweets. ukraine is the latest test after the west has fail so many others, will repression and violence be allowed to win in ukraine or will the free world finally defend the lives and values it purports to represent? but then again, we're dealing with vladimir putin, who has nuke, and is threatening them. there's always this constant threat that he could completely go nuclear. what do we know about him? and what hasn't been tried in terms of trying to restrain this type of behavior which he has done before? >> well, what we know about him, we can first look at, for example, the two wars in chechnya, right, where he did institute a complete scorched-earth policy. there were numerous human rights violations, war crimes there, some claimed jenl side, so we know that this is what he's capable of. we're starting to see some of those effects in bucha. he talks about right now that the west needs to stop arming ukraine, otherwise there will be serious consequences. you know, but one has to also look that we have been arming ukraine this whole time. you know, slovakia, as just mentioned, has delivered some s-300s. there's more tanks on the way. they've already delivered tanks. we need to take those words in context. but at the same time, you know, he has to deliver a win for russia. he has been talking about victory this whole time, talking about, you know, that this is a war of de-nazi-fication, you know, comparing it in some ways to world war ii, patriotic wars they call it. he has to deliver a win. for him i'm sure it will be before may 9th, which is victory day there. another thing to keep in mind this is the 100th year anniversary of ukraine's losing its independence and becoming part of the "uss r. we know he loves dates and those types of, you know, ideas. so, you know, we have to keep that in mind that this is what he wants. would he be capable of using nukes? i don't take anything off the table, but i don't imagine it would be a fall -scale scenario. but at the same time, it could possibly mean mutually assured destruction, and help knows this. it's hard to say what he will do, you know, to secure this victory that he absolutely has. >> so, gary, good morning. jonathan lemire. . wanted to pick up a little bit on that point. we've been hearing now from military analysts, both in washington and i cross the west, there's a belief that the war is about to enter this new phase, a protracted schedule in the donbas or a heavy set piece, incredibly violent struggle that may, and this is important, may last for months and months into potentially years. i want your sense of that. a, how challenging will it be for the west to stay unified during a struggle of that length? and b, how hard will it be for putin to keep popular support going for this? will he be able to convince the russian people that this is worth it if this spills into 2023 and beyond? >> first of all, let me emphasize putin doesn't need to keep public support for the war because i'm not sure there is public support for the war. we have no idea what the majority of russians think about this war, which is bloody and as you said looks endless. on the other side, i don't think this war can last for years. for months, probably, yes, but not for years. russia doesn't have the resources. and the ukraine army is getting stronger every day. they receive reinforcements from the free world, so it's heavy armor now, long-range artillery, anti-ship missiles. if putin doesn't have the east by may 9th, the next couple weeks, then ukraine army may start counteroffense. and i don't see putin having any resources to prevent a loss. that's why, again, we're talking about two or three weeks phase of this war. speaking about the nukes, i don't think that we can take anything off the table. putin needs win. putin can't afford looking weak because that's how dictatorships fail normally. but it's not him only to decide on pushing the button. they have generals and admirals. i think it's very important for nato, for the united states, to show the resolve that any russian military base or warship that will use nukes will be immediately destroyed. it's for us to work with those who execute this order and stop wasting our time thinking whether the dictator can use the weapon as a last resort. >> so what is it that we're not ding? are you concerned that our strategy is based on some sort of fear he might go further? he's already committing atrocities. the president has called them some very key strategically significant names. but what more can the u.s. do? and i'm going to add to this question two more, isn't he already pulling us in by threatening unpredictable consequences if we continue to fuel the fire? and even if ukraine restores territorial integrity, it's not over, is it? >> i would -- >> garry kasparov. >> sorry. yeah, territorial integrity, that's all for putin, because that will lead to massive revolt in russia and collapse of his dictatorial rule. what is still missing after these very strong statements of president biden, calling war crimes and genocide, it's the declaration that all this war to win, and the sanctions, half sanctions, will not be lifted until ukraine's territorial integrity is restored and reparation is maintained. what is missing is the consistency of a strategic goal. we should avoid any ambiguity to send a clear message, not to putin, he needs no statements to escalate, but for generals and admirals and russian elite to recognize russia with putin will be a pariah and on the losing side of history. >> all right. and nick, now, professor, final thoughts to you? >> i agree with what garry has just said. i think that it is possible that ukraine could possibly retake its entire borders. and that is what needs to happen because for sure as you said earlier, you know, positive silted the question, the answer is no, it would not be for putin. he was salami slicing ukraine before 2014, he's tried to do it again, got a little overambitious for the strength of his army. but if he were able to take donbas and keep that, it would not be the end for sure. he would continue as soon as he was able to resupply, et cetera, and at some point later try to take more of the territory. and i think that a desilsive victory is required. >> former world chess champion garry kasparov, professor nick ford, thank you very much. joining us now aboard a train on his way to lviv, raf sanchez. raf -- oh, i understand we just dropped him. he is as i said aboard a moving train. we'll re-establish our connection and come back after a short break. on and come back afa short break. nding that no child should die in the dawn of life. to work with many partners all over the world, nothing stops in the way of us achieving that mission, not even war. marta salek md: when there is a need, people stand up and do what is right and ensure that they restart medical therapy as quickly as possible. carlos rodriguez-galindo md: any child suffering today of cancer is our responsibility. this is remington. he's a member of the family, for sure. we always fed him kibble it just seemed like the thing to do. but he was getting picky, and we started noticing some allergy symptoms. we heard about the farmer's dog and it was a complete transformation. his allergies were going away and he just had amazing energy. it's a no-brainer that remi should have the best nutritious and delicious food possible. i'm investing in my dog's health and happiness. ♪♪ get started at longlivedogs.com this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? 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it sounds like trump, if he runs, doesn't feel like doing debates. >> reporter: yeah, good morning. we're kind of matching here, mika. >> i'm peopling it. >> reporter: coordination. but this is further proof, if we needed anymore, that trump has kind of a stranglehold on the republican party, right. this is something that we heard him complaining about in 2020 when he pulled out one of the debates because it was going to be virtual, because of the pandemic. and they have continued to talk about this. republicans who are continuously trying to figure out what he thinks, how he feels, and following his lead on these things, that is what's happening here, right. we'll say in general as a person who watches these debates, it is important for american voters to sit and watch the two people who may be running the country standing side by side. that's been going on for decades. and answering questions from independent-minded journalists that may not be what we see moving forward because of this move. >> a loss of debates would be bad for democracy, period, end of sentence. you had an interview with biden's campaign pollster in recent days. give us a sense as to what you discovered. what do they like? what are they worried about? >> reporter: john was on the podcast at politico. getting insight into how top democrats focus on the white house may be feeling, you and i have talked to them a lot about this, and john talked about how this is the worst political environment he has been in in his 30 years, which is, you know, seeming to be true and what we're hearing from folks. but he did say that if they are able, democrats, to pass some kind of social spending bill, they may be able to cut through some of the other narratives that are happening. because voters are thinking right now, what have you done for me lately? not what happened last year, what was in the arp, how did the child tax credit change my life. they want to see more action. he also says that republicans are better at branding this, something that democrats need to do better as because, you know, you hear one thing from a top republican and that kind of reverb rates through the ecosystem and that's something democrats need to work on. democrats who are looking for kind of a silver lining from that conversation on the deep dive podcast, he also says that, you know, even if democrats lose the midterm, it happened to reagan, clinton, and obama, and they were all re-elected. >> "morning joe" senior contributor eugene daniels reporting for us at the white house, looking good. thank you very much. coming up, a look at a group of voters that could be crucial in the midterms and why they're backing away from dems who need them. steven kornacki will be here to break it all down. and before we go to break, willie, what do you have planned for "sunday today"? >> i think you're going to like this one coming up on sunday on nbc. my conversation with the great and hilarious and talented jane lynch. >> oh, my gosh. >> jane is starring in the broadway revival of "funny girl." highly anticipated, amazing reviews already. it's in previews right now. it opens in earnest next sunday. so we got together to talk about that show and her role as sue silvester on "glee," her emmy-winning role on "the marvelous mrs. maisel." so much to talk about with jane lynch. you'll see it this weekend on "sunday today" on nbc. asya agulnik md: st. jude was founded with an understanding that no child should die in the dawn of life. to work with many partners all over the world, nothing stops in the way of us achieving that mission, not even war. marta salek md: when there is a need, people stand up and do what is right and ensure that they restart medical therapy as quickly as possible. carlos rodriguez-galindo md: any child suffering today of cancer is our responsibility. it's 28 past the hour and the fourth hour of "morning joe." in just a little bit, we're going to be joined by chef jose andres, who has literally set up shop, as in kitchen, in warsaw stadium in poland, feeding refugees. we'll talk to him about how that's going, a massive under taking, and really how all of this has shaped his views as he has truly immersed himself in this unprecedented refugee crisis. first to steven kornacki who joinings us at the big board with a look at politics, at democrats trending in the wrong direction, especially with hispanic voters, as axios points out, "democrats had hoped this might be a phenomenon specific to the trump era, but new polling shows it accelerating, worrying party strategists about the top of the ticket in 2024." so, steve, what are you seeing in the numbers? >> yeah, mika. it was a question raised by those 2020 election result where is we saw significant movement away from the democrats toward republicans among hispanic voters. the question is, is it still continuing in 2022? and long-term for 2024. here's the trajectory of what it's looked like among hispanic voters. back to trump versus clinton in 2016, hillary clinton won among hispanic voters by almost 40 points. trump got 28% of the hispanic vote. for republicans in the midterm, things got worse. this is the hispanic vote. the democratic margin swells to 50 points. democrats did better than virtually any group in the midterms and in the 2016 election. then the story took a twist between '18 and '20, between the midterm and trump's re-election campaign. this is the shift we saw among hispanic voters. look at that, that 47-point midterm margin for democrats came all the way down to 21 points. reaching nearly 40%. this is sort of the gold standard postelection study. the question that raises, was that a one-time phenomenon or is it continuing? what we've done is we've taken a look at all of the publicly available polling since march 1st on the generic ballot question, the question of do you want to vote for the democrats, do you want to vote for the republicans in this year's midterm elections? here's what we're finding when e average together all of the hispanic vote from those polls. we're finding what looks like a continuation of that trend, at least in the polling right now. the democratic margin on average 16 points in the polling we've been seeing since march 1st. what has been driving this among hispanic voters? one thing we saw between 2018 and 2020, you see this dramatic shift away from the democrats. it was particularly pronounced, something we see with white voters, too, in education divide, hispanic voters without a college degree. this is what that demographic looked like in 2018. democrats won it by 44 points. in the 2020 election among hispanic voters without a degree, trump broke 40%. the biden margin was down to just 14%, a 30-point swing right there. that was the biggest shift we saw within the hispanic vote. hispanic voters, in some ways that mirrors a trend, talking about white voters with no degree, how they've been trending strongly towards republicans. you see a trend in the republican direction with hispanic voters. what does it mean for 2022? take a look. this is the hispanic population states with the largest hispanic populations. one thing i would note here is nevada, where there's a hot senate race this year, democrats trying to hang on, the hispanic population 29%, but of all these states, nevada has the highest concentration of hispanic voters without degrees. so that most republican friendly portion of the hispanic electorate, most pronounced in nevada. where are key senate races this year? i mentioned nevada. big hispanic population in arizona, in colorado. this could also extend to the house. it was the rio grande valley of south texas where we saw some of biggest shifts anywhere in the country in 2020 from the democrats towards the republican among hispanic voters, talking 30, 40, 50-point shifts in some counties there. the question on 2020 was it just trump's re-election? the early polling we're seeing in 2022 suggests this is very much a story for this midterm, and again, something we've been talking about for decades. if the hispanic vote comes up for grabs between the parties, it's a huge shift potentially in american politics. >> one that would potentially be an ominous sign for democrats banking on that vote for so long. i want your sense of whether what you're seeing in polls about the issue among the latino immigrants about immigration, which is sort of a polarizing topic there, and one that's about to become to the forefront of discourse this summer. a lot of experts believe with the situation at the southern border coming under increased scrutiny. >> yeah. interesting. the biden administration's decision to roll back title 42, the trump administration's enforcement there on the border, there is some polling on that basically showing hispanic voters split on that. when i mention texas, let me show you the border area in texas in 2020 because i think this is -- where i say it was the most dramatic, trump won the state, obviously, and we talked so much in texas in 2020 about the suburbs of dallas, the suburbs of houston, college-educated professionals, a lot of white voters in many cases trending towards the democrats, what kept trump with a healthy margin in texas was south texas. let me show you a few examples right on the border. we're looking at counties that are like 90, 95% hispanic. this is star county, not that big, but this is representative of what you were seeing in south texas and the reo grand valley. joe biden won star county by five points. let me show you what this same county looked like in 2016. hillary clinton won it by 61. this was a 56-point shift right on the u.s.-mexico border in one of the most heavily hispanic counties in the united states of america, a 56-point shift from the democrats in trump's direction. trump didn't carry the county, but star county is not an outlier. we saw similar movement here. this went from 40 to 17 going right through the border here. here clinton won by 33. trump took it by 5. this was the story in the border region of texas, voters who deal with the questions of migrant crossings, imgragts every day, heavily hispanic electorate, biggest movement in the country away from the democrats. >> nbc news national political correspondent steven kornacki. thank you very much for that update. stim ahead, more from the front lines in ukraine where children are more and more among the severely wounded. we'll hear their stories. and we'll be joined by the founder of world central kitchen, jose andres, on the work his team is doing on the ground to help ukrainian refugees. also ahead, major delays at several texas-mexico border crossings could be cleared up soon after a deal was struck. the latest on that and the politics at play. plus, multiple lawmakers have concerns about senator dianne feinstein's fitness to serve. that's ahead in morning papers. 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chronicle" reports republican governor greg abbott has reached a deal with the governors of two mexican border states to ease some of the stepped-up truck inspections that he implemented, snarling commercial traffic at border crossing and ultimately making things more expensive, maybe boosting inflation to make biden look bad. it's all politics, some say. the "san francisco chronicle" reports at least four senators, including three democrats, spoke anonymously to the paper saying they're concerne long-term senator dianne feinstein's memory is fading to the point it's difficult for her to do her job. they allege on her worst day she can't recognize colleagues. to "the los angeles times," a fascinating feature highlighting ukrainian civilians who have stayed in their country and are stepping up to defend their democracy any way they can from taking up arms to peeling potatoes in soup kitchens to help feed the hungry. to minnesota, where the "minneapolis star tribune" reports that the state's unemployment rate is reaching its lowest level since 1999 as the state has reported one of the strongest periods of job gains in the country. and the "san diego union tribune" has a front-page story about how california is pausing a plan to require school children to be immunized for covid-19. the earliest the mandate would now go into effect is july 2023, pending full approval by the fda covid vaccine for children under 16 being considered as well. in alaska, the fairbanks daily news reports the state is seeing a dramatic rise in drug deaths, overdoses up 68% compared to 2019. more than half of those deaths involving fentanyl, an opioid that is 50 times more potent than heroin. we'll follow those stories amid a humanitarian crisis in ukraine and across eastern europe. some are really stepping up, like world central kitchen, which has delivered more than 10 million meals across seven countries to ukrainian refugees since the war began. we'll speak to its founder, chef jose 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one hiring site. try it for free at ziprecruiter.com that oddly satisfying feeling when you don't do it yourself. 47 past the hour. as cities across eastern ukraine prepare for a major escalation in the conflict, tens of thousands have fled the front lines and more and more children are being wounded. sky news u.s. correspondent mark stone has more from ukraine. a warning, the following report containings disturbing images. >> reporter: it's a week since the bombing of the train station in kramatorsk and doctors want to show us the cost. this girl is 10. she was at the station with her mother last friday fleeing the fighting. she lost one of her leg, the other foot, and her mother. next door, katerina. she's 12. doctors saved her baldly injured legs, yet, she, too, lost her mother. goodness knows their trauma, and understandably doctors have asked we didn't show their faces or interview them. but then what more needs to be heard? andre was at the station too. the three young ukrainians wither with thousands as they tried to board trains away from danger when it was targeted by the missile. he's now without his arm. there is a quiet and a calmness here, but it's not safe. the windows are prepared for whatever might come next. the city of dnipro is split by the river, a buffer from any advance from the russians by the east. for now the whole city is firmly in ukrainian control, but this week russian missiles hit the city's new airport. on the east side of the river is the dnipro branch of the ukrainian association for the blind, a place that's now a refuge for anyone who needs it. in the quiet of the corridor, we found larisa. she describes this place as heaven from the hell she's escaped. "there were a whole range of feelings, in my hands, my legs, my ears, the vibration from the bombs." this is the experience of the war for the blind. thank you very much for spending the time to talk to us. the city's mayor doesn't stay in one place for long. the russians have said they will target command centers. this isn't a military command center, but he won't take his chances. >> we need three things -- weapon, weapon, and weapon. >> reporter: and the american president has sent $800 million will be coming. >> yes, we are worried and thank you for our western friends. western help is late. >> the challenges of dnipro are huge, carrying for the wounded and displaced but also preparing as much as they can for the days ahead. >> sky news u.s. correspondent mark stone for that report. as millions of ukrainians flee the horrors we just saw. chef jose andre joins us live from inside ukraine west of kyiv where he's serving nearly 10 million meals. i will be right back. i will be right back ♪ ♪ if you're on medicare, it pays to check the singlecare price before you fill your next prescription. i think we got it. don't overpay for your prescriptions. check the singlecare price. you might just save up to 80% on your meds. after switching to the farmer's dog we noticed so many improvements in remi's health. his allergies were going away and he just had amazing energy. it looks like nutritious food, and it is. i'm investing in my dog's health and happiness. get started at longlivedogs.com asya agulnik md: st. jude was founded with an understanding i'm investing in my dog's health and happiness. that no child should die in the dawn of life. to work with many partners all over the world, nothing stops in the way of us achieving that mission, not even war. marta salek md: when there is a need, people stand up and do what is right and ensure that they restart medical therapy as quickly as possible. carlos rodriguez-galindo md: any child suffering today of cancer is our responsibility. we demanded to be given the access. we have not been given the access. we'll continue to do everything we can to reach for those people and keep fighting for them. that's all we'll do. we'll not give up with the people in mariupol and all the people we could not reach. it is a devastating situation that people are being starved to death. >> that was the executive director of u.n.'s world food program. massive hunger. one group is working to help and that's world central kitchen, serving 10 million meals so far to ukrainians, set ups of 41 border crossings and nearly 2,000 distribution sites and the region. west of kyiv, founder of world central kitchen, chef jose andreas, good to have you with us. you have been all over the place and you have been moving around ukraine, poland and romania and spain. how would you assess the need for food and the challenges that you are facing meeting that need? >> well, right now we are in the east, west, north, south here in ukraine. i am here in the town of chernihiv where north and part of kyiv is around 66 feet max from the border of russia. the need is in those towns and those cities and those areas that they have been under the russians or surrounded by the russian troops. for us is so important as the city of kyiv and the area of kyiv was -- the troops moving north. we begin quickly. things in the kitchen keeps moving north and bringing in hundreds of thousands of pounds of food or hot meals. sometimes people don't have gas to cook and they would love to get a fresh cooked meal. the super markets are open again and the chain of distribution are going back to normal. we open the tracks and we share whatever food we have. everybody picks and chooses what they want. we keep ongoing back everyday. >> i understand you have been use technology to get to different places and at one point you found yourself in russian territory. how much are you moving around to try to locate these refugees or is that is clearly mapped out at this point? >> no, i think this was more me making a joke, technology is amazing. it is amazing. it is true sometimes that people or apps don't know if you are in a war zone or not. as i was driving into kyiv late at night a few weeks ago, yes, it is true that it is taking you through the fastest roads does not mean it is the safest road. without the technology they have in the palm of my hand with an iphone, i would not be able to do what we do. everybody member of the team we know where they are so if there is an explosion. we had a man in kramatorsk, he was delivering near the station. women and children waiting to move towards the west. this is the situation we face sometimes. there is no way we are going to help people all fighting hunger. when we went to bucha, we know there was mines all over and we found more troops near bucha because the city had a lot of risk. i think those reasons, we need to be next of the people who needed us the most, those that are suffering in this war. >> chef jose andres and thank you so much for what you are doing and thank you for coming on the show. we appreciate all your effort. we hope to speak you again very soon. jonathan lemire on this good friday, beginning of passover and easter weekend, final thoughts to you. >> jose andres remains the hero and final thought belongs to president zelenskyy, some of our friends in "the atlantic" talked about this weekend. a holiday is about rebirth and life is going to be spent on death and killing each other. he's begging for more western help to prevent russia from doing that. >> jonathan lemire, thank you very much. that does it for us this morning. "jose diaz-balart reports" picks up the coverage right now. good morning, russia pledged new attack on kyiv after it struck a new target outside of ukraine's capital last night. ukraine military says russia shelled residential area and another city between kherson and odesa. back in the u.s., covid cases are in the rise again. just as millions of americans kickoff a busy holiday weekend, we are also going to tell you about a new covid test that could give you a faster results. and with the pandemic, immigration policy is

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