>> the pattern and disparity between cases and hospitalizations strongly suggest that there will be a lower hospitalization to case ratio when the situation becomes more clear. >> still, dr. fauci says do not be complacent. the rise in cases still has the potential to overwhelm hospitals, at least in some parts of the country, especially those with low vaccination rates. those milestones we mentioned, more than 53 million total cases now confirmed across the united states. and a new record in the number of daily infections, now averaging more than 262,000 cases a day. that is prompting colleges and school districts around the country to reexamine their safety protocols. washington, dc just announced school kids will be required to show a negative test before returning back from winter break next week. also today, the cdc is trying to clear up some of the confusion over its new guidelines that says asymptomatic people can isolate five days instead of ten. we're going to ask our medical expert about that. let us bring in our nbc news reporters. mike memoli is with the president in delaware. heidi przybyla is in washington. shaq brewster is in wisconsin. and we're joined by dr. blackstock. dr. blackstock, this exponential rise in cases is freaking everybody out, prompting closures everywhere, people are testing positive, there are staffing issues across businesses. but at the same time we are consistently seeing less hospitalizations. will you put this all into perspective for us? >> right, thanks so much, katy, for having me. yes, exactly, we're seeing this exponential rise in cases. we're not seeing the same degree of increase in hospitalizations yet. and that could be because of something inherent in this omicron variant. it may be a less virulent form. it could be also that it has a tendency to infect people who already have partial immunity, meaning they've been infected previously or they've been vaccinated. i would also say that we know that hospitalizations lag behind cases by about two to three weeks. so the full picture has yet to be seen. but as you mentioned earlier, we are seeing hospitals in certain areas reach capacity. and those are areas that have low vaccination rates. so the concern is how does that impact on other people who are coming to the hospital for non-covid-related complaints as well? we're seeing a mixed bag right now. i do think we still need to employ measures to control transmission. the number of cases are just incredibly high. and just because of the sheer number of cases, we will see an increase in hospitalizations. the delta variant is still around and still responsible for a good number of those hospitalizations. so i think we have to really think about relying on those policies around masking, testing, increasing vaccinations, to get those case levels under control right now. >> you're talking about two to three weeks as a lagging indicator for the number of hospitalizations, dr. blackstock. have we gotten to two to three weeks? it feels like we've been dealing with this for some time. we announced it or learned of it back on thanksgiving, announced the first few cases here in the united states, just a few days later. >> right, so those are the first few cases. but now we're hitting case numbers of hundreds of thousands a day. now that we're at this record level, we should be seeing in the next one to two weeks whether that translates into much higher number of hospitalizations. as i said, i do think the case count, even though people are having mild illness, we're seeing it increase in hospitalizations among children because the variant will infect people who are still vulnerable. so again, another reason to contain the cases, contain the transmission, but again, some promising news, that this variant may cause milder infection. but still, because of the sheer number of infections, it may increase those hospitalized numbers for you. >> forgive me for focusing on you for three days in a row, but we saw new york city announced a rise in hospitalizations among children on friday but didn't announce the numbers. are these kids who have been vaccinated, number one, and are they kids that have underlying conditions? is it regular healthy kids that were vaccinated that are being hospitalized? because that would be a lot different than somebody who has not been vaccinated or might have an underlying condition, not saying that one is okay, but it would be different for a lot of parents. >> so actually what we're seeing is an increase in hospitalizations by about four times among children in the new york city area. the majority of them are not vaccinated. about half of them are under the age of 5, and so aren't even eligible for vaccination. this shows that technically, one, we need to contain the spread, but two, how well vaccinations are working for our children, to keep them out of the hospital and to prevent them from investigate worst outcomes of covid-19 like severe disease that requires hospitalization. >> shaq, let's talk about students and classrooms. the biden administration wants to keep students in classrooms. schools are understandably nervous about the rise in cases and what dr. blackstock was just talking about. what are schools doing to keep things in the classroom as we come out of the holiday season? >> katy, i'll just add to the backdrop, when you look across the country, according to a new nbc news analysis, you're seeing that rise in childhood hospitalizations across the country, especially in states like illinois, joining the likes of new york, new jersey, ohio, and florida. and the concerning trend is, these are state that they're seeing a rise in cases. we're expecting that surge. which means you usually have that lagging indicator of hospitalizations increasing. however, for childhood hospitalizations, they're increasing at double the rate, double the pace of what you're seeing in the adult population. and that's the concern you have, because the spread is at a rate that's uncontrollable at this point. we just heard from city leaders, they explained the positivity rate here in chicago is 16%. last week it was 8%. the week before, it was 4%. that's leading the mayor of chicago to really raise some alarm bells. listen to how she put it. >> we don't have that sound, i'm so sorry, shaq. heidi, i want to get that same question to you about schools. schools in dc have just announce you have to test to get back into school. people are having a hard time getting a test. what are you seeing? >> katy, what we're seeing is the same approach with a lot of these big urban areas, where shaq is in chicago, here in dc. they want kids to have a negative test to come back to school. they'll try to bring these children back in person. they saw significant impacts from learning losses, from emotional problems, from children in virtual learning the last year. the question is whether these measures, katy, will go far enough to keep the kids learning in person. now, the cdc, before the holidays, outlined this approach, called test to stay, but it's very labor-intensive. it requires a lot of these rapid antigen tests that aren't yet really available on a massive scale. staffing shortages abound. listen to some of these challenges in the dc chancellor of schools not ruling out another return to virtual pauses. >> we should expect classrooms or schools or grade levels to temporarily transition to a virtual learning posture as needed throughout the remainder of this semester, in the coming weeks and throughout this school year. all of the decisions we do not take lightly. >> here's the landscape nationwide, katy. in a survey that was conducted just before the holidays of 100 of the nation's largest urban districts, just 13 are doing that cdc recommended test to stay approach where instead of quarantining kids that have been exposed, they test them twice for the rapid test, they can stay as long as their negative. 13 of 100, katy. unless those numbers change, there will be a lot of challenges with that, including staffing, including the number of tests, and also the parents have to consent to having their children tested. that's not even considering the impacts, for instance, of staffing shortages, if teachers start to get sick, nurses start to get sick, cafeteria workers, bus drivers, you see where i'm going with this, katy. >> there are a lot of indications that if you have to interact in society at all, you will get it even if you're vaccinated and boosted. mike, the cdc announced today that they are going to limit the number of isolation days, five days, from ten. rochelle walensky conceded they want something that's workable for the public, something they can swallow for this, and ten days was just too long. >> yeah, that's right, katy, at today's covid response briefing we had a lot of ground to cover, including questions about the availability and the accuracy of testing, questions about just what we're learning about the virus itself, questions about whether we'll be talking about a fourth booster in a matter of months as we're already starting to see in israel. a lot of the areas where this white house is on defense right now has to do with the guidelines the cdc announce just this week. we've been hearing more about something of a balancing test that the administration is considering here. they want to be able to see american life continue as much as normally as possible, even with case levels really exponentially growing, as you've been indicating. they also want to make sure they're doing everything by the science. this is an administration that has always said they're following the science. walensky has been stressing throughout the day that this five-day isolation period rather than ten days is something that's a result of that balancing test. because we know the symptoms and transmissibility tends to occur two to three days after or one to two days before, that's what led their decision to the five-day system. but what walensky was also stressing in multiple interviews today in addition to this briefing was the fact that, a, you have to make sure you're asymptomatic, but b, there's no limit. if you want to isolate even further, you should be encouraged to do so even further. but especially to continue to wear the masks. so as the administration is now ending this calendar year, obviously president biden came in promising a very stark departure from the way president trump handled the coronavirus, much more seriousness to it, we're seeing the ways the administration has reevaluated over time how they approach this issue. and especially they are continuing to emphasize the fact that because vaccinations are here where they weren't a year ago, and because they are shown to be effective, albeit with the need for booster, and they continue to stress the need for that, we are in a much different position now than we were a year ago. >> again, you've got to xlt case rate with the hospitalization rate. we could see another increase as dr. blackstock was talking about in one to two weeks. we are at a much different place, there are vaccines, there are boosters, there are therapeutics. this is a much different pandemic than in 2020. mike, i have one more question for you. we're following another new development from the white house. we learned a short time ago that president biden is set to talk with russian president vladimir putin tomorrow for the second time this month. so mike, what is this conversation going to be about? >> yeah, katy, remember, it was just a few weeks ago that these two leaders sat down virtually for that videoconference. and when that conversation ended, it seemed that there was really no middle ground in terms of the two sides' demands. obviously president putin made clear in that moment that he wanted an iron-clad commitment from the u.s., from nato, that they would not admit ukraine as a member. that's something the u.s. has said is a nonstarter. biden in that conversation made it clear as well that any further escalation by president putin as it relates to ukraine and the u.s. is defining very clear escalation as invasion of ukraine, would lead to severe economic sanctions. in that time we've seen a number of conversations happening below the leader level, between u.s. and russian officials. jake sullivan, national security adviser, just last week spoke to his russian counterpart. but it is clear, as president putin has only increased his demands, what he wants to see before he would be willing to drawback, he made it clear he wanted to speak to president biden. what white house officials are saying today in advance of what we know will be further discussions in geneva on january 10th is that at the request of president putin, president biden has agreed to have this one on one phone conversation tomorrow. they'll discuss a range of issues, iran, nuclear security, but especially the ongoing situation in ukraine. conversation 1 was in person in geneva, conversation 2 was this month. now it's just a matter of months between conversation 2 and conversation 3. it's an indicator of just how much mystery there is around what president putin's intentions are and why the white house is emphasizing that while they're certainly prioritizing diplomacy, they are prepared to, should putin escalate further, engage in other measures as well. >> intense time. mike memoli, thank you very much. ahead, record heat in alaska where temperatures hit 67 degrees the day after christmas. al roker wraps the year's wild climate changes. and the white house strikes a deal with the committee investigating the january 6th riot. inside the agreement that will keep those documents secret. first, a look back at the life and legacy of former senate majority leader harry reid from someone who knew him best. someone who knew him best. ng cas get stuck under mike's denture. but super poligrip gives him a tight seal. to help block out food particles. so he can enjoy the game. super poligrip. i'm so glad we're finally on vacation. yeah, and kayak made it so easy - searching hundreds of travel sites to find us a great flight. my ears still won't pop after the flight but i don't even care.... what? kayak. search one and done. do you struggle with occasional nerve aches in your hands or feet? what? try nervivenerve relief from the world's #1 selling nerve care company. nervive contains alpha lipoic acid to relieve occasional nerve aches, weakness and discomfort. try nervivenerve relief. this is a gamechanger, who dares to be fearless even when her bladder leaks. our softest, smoothest fabric keeping her comfortable, protected, and undeniably sleek. depend. the only thing stronger than us, is you. flags are at half-staff today on capitol hill as former colleagues and friends remember the life of former senate majority leader harry reid. reid passed away at the age of 82 yesterday after a prolonged battle with pancreatic cancer. he leaves behind a remarkable record as a political fighter and a champion for all americans, especially for those working. nbc's chief washington correspondent andrea mitchell has more. >> reporter: harry reid was a kingmaker in washington. the one-time amateur boxer brought that fighting spirit to congress where he spent 30 years, including eight as the senate majority leader. his road to washington starting in searchlight, nevada, where reid was born into poverty. >> i didn't make it because of my good looks or because i'm a genius. i made it because i work hard. >> reporter: flags were at half-staff in his honor as tributes poured in from both sides of the aisle. reid was the first to suggest president obama should run for office. >> he's going to go down as one of the best leaders the senate has ever had. i could not have accomplished what i accomplished without him being at my side. >> reporter: a message president obama emphasized in a recent letter to reid which he made public overnight, writing in part, you were a great leader in the senate and early on you were more generous to me than i had any right to expect. i wouldn't have been president had it not been for your encouragement and support. reid, working alongside obama to push through his key legislative accomplishment, the affordable care act, known as obamacare. >> barack obama would never have passed the health care bill that bears his name, obamacare, without harry reid. it should be called reid care as much as it should be called obamacare. >> reporter: president biden wrote, for harry it wasn't about power for power's sake. it was about the power to do right for the people. minority leader mitch mcconnell, who had a very contentious relationship with reid, even paying respect to the political rival he sparred with frequently, writing, i never doubted that harry was always doing what he deeply felt was right for nevada and the country. reid retired from the senate after an accident left him blind in one eye. he lost his battle with pancreatic cancer on tuesday. the world remembers this soft-spoken fighter from nevada, never afraid to mix it up in the political arena. >> let us bring in david mccallum, a close friend of senator reid's and served as his deputy chief of staff for more than 16 years. it's good to have you. we know so much about his political legacy, he was such a big deal in the senate. as president obama said, won't have been able to accomplish what he accomplished without him. so few of him knew him personally. i was touched by what you told me about what he would do not just for his colleagues in the senate but staffers in the capitol. >> thank you, katy, he was an amazing man in that regard. a lot of people know him from the news or just politics or his legislative accomplishments. what many probably didn't see was just what a fundamentally decent man he was. and that, you know, it came from him and his background and the way he came up. he never forgot about anyone. he cared deeply about his staff. he cared deeply about the institution of the senate. he was always looking for ways to help people out or give them a boost or find them a job or if they had a medical problem, he knew who the best doctors were. and he and his wife landra were just fundamentally such good, nice people who cared about everyone. you know, he wasn't one to go to white house receptions and hobnob. when the day was done, he wanted nothing more than to get home to landra. >> you told us a story about how he paid for the dental bills for i believe it was a cafeteria worker one christmas, that you noticed there was in the christmas list of gifts, there was a dentist on there. that is above and beyond. >> it really is. that one, he surprised me too. when the holidays came, unlike a lot of elected officials, they didn't just generate thousands of christmas cards and stuff like that. they had a very small group of folks who they wanted to do a little something for christmas. and ended up on the phone and wanted to make sure we sent the gift to the right place. he went on and on, what an incredible man, he called me up and said you fixed this woman's teeth and send me the bill. and i didn't even know this was -- i didn't know he had done this. which was also one of his hallmarks, it was never about him, it was always about his random acts of kindness, i guess. >> that's amazing. i was also reading about how he was inspirational among the senate and also much like a father figure, a leader in a way that few have been in the past. somebody who was able to say, hey, listen, trust me on this. it might be painful, it might be difficult, but trust me on this, i will get us through it. talk to me about his ability to convince other democratic senators to trust him. >> well, he had that reputation. and people knew they could take him at his word. you know, he didn't mix words with folks. and if you came to him with something, he would let you know where he stood, even if it wasn't news you wanted to hear at the moment. but people always left his office knowing exactly where they stood with him. and over time, that's how people came to respect him and knew that they could take him at his word, you know? as leader, there's a lot of things that you're not going to talk about, you're not going to go on the news, you're not going to put out a press release. he always worked to solve any problem he could for anyone. and if he couldn't, he would tell them. and, you know, people always knew that he did his best for them. >> he lived a remarkable life, coming up from literally nothing, and he leaves behind a remarkable legacy. david mccallum, thanks so much for sharing that with us. that dentist story really gets me. i know what it's like to have issues with your teeth and how expensive it is, but how important it is for your dignity. it's just remarkable. thank you so much, david. >> thank you for having me on. and coming up, the jury in the ghislaine maxwell trial was told to expect to work through the holiday weekend if they do not reach a verdict today. four alleged leaders of the proud boys will face charges of obstruction and conspiracy after a federal judge denied their request for a dismissal. request for a dismissal. looks p. try this robitussin honey. the real honey you love... plus the powerful cough relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? now get powerful relief with robitussin elderberry. that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. there's some new developments in the investigation surrounding the january 6th insurrection. on tuesday the house select committee and the white house agreed to hold back hundreds of pages of documents from the panel. the white house's deputy counsel says turning over those documents reportedly unrelated to january 6th would violate the need for confidentiality in presidential decisionmaking. also four alleged leaders of the far right proud boys accused of conspiring to overtake the capitol did not catch a break from a federal judge. the judge on tuesday denied a request from the defendants' lawyers to dismiss the case on grounds of free speech. i'm joined now by nbc news capitol hill correspondent ali vitali and "l.a. times" white house reporter eli stokols. ali, do we have an idea of what those documents were that they're not getting? >> if you listen to the white house counsel's office and my conversations with people i've been having on the committee, they're not directly related to january 6th. the committee effectively says because they relate to things like the national security council, they're not going to be direct impediments to the january 6th committee's work. specifically in the letter to the committee, the white house counsel's office says, the select committee has agreed to withdraw its request for person presidential records within these 511 pages that we're talking about, which are responsive to the committee's request only because of the date on which they were created. these records appear to have no content that might be material to the select committee's investigation. again, when the committee is putting in these kinds of requests, they make them as broad as possible. so if the committee is requesting documents that relate in any way to the day of january 5th, for example, or january 6th itself, it's possible that it could involve pulling in things from agencies, potentially classified information, things of that nature, that don't relate to what they're looking for related to january 6th other than the fact that it happened that day. the committee says they have agreed to defer action on those records as part of the accommodations with the white house. the select committee will continue to engage with the executive branch to make sure the committee gets access to all the information relevant to our probe. so, pushing ahead but making an agreement on this specific set of 500-some pages. >> the white house trying to be specific on what they can have in terms of this investigation. so eli, the january 6th committee or panel is entering a new stage in the new year. they're already looking at current members of congress, jim jordan and another member of congress. what should we expect as we enter the new year? >> well, i think you should expect more revelations and just, you know, sussing out in particular which members were on the phone with this president, with this white house, and what they were saying. there were a lot of republicans in congress who had this president on speed dial, were able to connect with him. a lot of them, understandably, do not want some of this information to come out. for jim jordan to be cooperating with this committee tells you a lot, because he has really been out front as one of the most pro-trump republicans in congress, trashing the committee as a partisan exercise. so for him to think about cooperating, sitting down with them, really tells you that they have a lot of information and that he has decided it might be better for him to actually sit and tell his side of the story than to just let it play out and try to tarnish this in the media and dismiss it as another partisan witch hunt, which has been the trump playbook for years now. coming up, live to new york, where the jury in the ghislaine maxwell case is deliberating for a fifth day. a fifth day. son is the world's largest healthcare company. building a future where cancers can be cured. strokes can be reversed. joints can be 3-d printed. and there isn't one definition of what well feels like. there are millions. we're using our world to make your world a world of well. new developments in the jury deliberations in the child sex trafficking trial against ghislaine maxwell. moments ago, attorneys were gathered in court in the courtroom and there was a note from the jury, the jury asking the judge for a transcript. that is the sixth transcript the jury has requested just today, despite a note yesterday that indicated that the jury is, quote, making progress. the judge said if they do not reach a verdict today, wednesday, they will have to deliberate through the holiday weekend. here with me now is nbc news correspondent ron allen, outside the courthouse in new york city. ron, the questions that we're getting from the jury, these transcripts, what could they indicate? >> reporter: the last was the first witness to testify in the trial, jeffrey epstein's pilot. he does a lot of things in this case, he identifies the people on the plane with epstein and he dropped a lot of names like donald trump, bill clinton and others. he also identified all the passengers, although he made a point of saying that the cockpit door was always closed. he made a point in his testimony of saying he never saw any sexual activity on the plane, he never saw any underaged girls on the plane or what he thought were underaged girls. he even identified one of the key accusers in the trial and said that when he saw her, he did not think that she was underage, which is a central issue of this trial, of course, because that's the accusation, that maxwell was recruiting underage girls for epstein. they pretty much replayed the entire trial since coming back earlier this week. there have been now 16 requests for -- or questions. they've deliberated for over 32 or 33 hours. and part of that may be because they had those four days off around christmas that interrupted the deliberations. so again, this is all speculation. they've asked for testimony from a former boyfriend, a former boyfriend to confirm the testimony of the accusers. they asked for a defense witness, a former executive assistant of maxwell's who said that he saw nothing wrong going on in the office when maxwell was there, generally. and they also asked for the testimony of a psychologist who was a defense expert who talked about something called false memory, essentially the idea that we don't remember things correctly, that we're subject to being led, to what people tell us, and so on and so forth, which was, again, part of the defense strategy of trying to discredit the witnesses who are trying to retell what happened as far back as the mid-1990s, the allegations stretched from 1994 to 2004. that's where we are now. we don't know how much longer this will go today. the judge told the jury he wanted to go to 6:00, they've gone until 5:00 p.m. eastern. they're trying to move things along because of concerns about covid. >> if one person gets covid, that throws things into question. ron, i hope somebody caught your phone when you threw it, that was a deft move, i hope it's okay. coming up, weather extremes with al roker. but when it comes to my insurance i don't. i use liberty mutual, they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. wooo, yeaa, woooooo and, by switching you could even save 665 dollars. hey tex, can someone else get a turn? yeah, hang on, i'm about to break my own record. yeah. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty. ♪ i brought in ensure max protein, with thirty grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks! 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has been an absolutely catastrophic year of extreme weather events across the world. but 2021 also brought historic levels of funding for projects and policies to fight the climate crisis. nbc's al roker walks us through the past year in climate. >> reporter: 2021. another blistering year of climate and weather extremes. from wildfires and drought to catastrophic flooding and hundreds. almost no state escaping unscathed. this year seemed to pick up where 2020 left off, with one major exception. four years after withdrawing from the paris climate agreement, newly-elected president joe biden bringing the u.s. back into the fold. >> we can no longer delay or do the bare minimum to address climate change. >> reporter: the deal bringing together world leaders, pledging to do their part to stop the earth from warming past 1.5 degrees celsius. scientists say any warming beyond 2 degrees would be catastrophic. but as winter carried on, texas endured a cataclysmic event when extreme arctic cold caused by a breakdown in the polar vortex sent icy air plunging south, crippling the state's power grid, leaving residents freezing, without water and in the dark for days. >> we haven't had water for ten days. the first couple of days we were collecting and melting snow. >> reporter: what unfolded in texas may no longer be a once in a lifetime event. this tragedy exposing one of the most fragile part of our country, its crumbling and ill-fitted infrastructure. in the northwest, it was support attic weather patterns connected to climate change that created a once in a millennia heat wave, resulting in some of the highest temperatures recorded in the region. temperatures in portland, seattle, and parts of canada soaring well above 100 degrees. at least 228 people dying in washington state and oregon alone. >> electricity went off. and so it's quickly getting warmer and warmer. >> reporter: kicking off an unprecedented summer of heat, 2021 will go down in history as the hottest summer on record for the united states. megafires in the west burning for months. the bootleg fire in oregon burning more than 413,000 acres. the dixie fire becoming the second largest to ever scorch parts of california. >> i didn't know where i was, whose house was what. it was just a wasteland. >> we're just grateful to be alive. we've got each other. >> reporter: the 2021 hurricane season not as prolific at 2020 was still an over achiever. there were 21 named storms including seven hurricanes, four of which were category three or higher. category four hurricane ida lashing louisiana, still recovering from last year's four landfalls. >> we're looking at imminent landfall of this storm. >> the deadly hurricane flattening entire communities, leaving millions of people in louisiana without power. some outages lasting for months. ida then slashed a path of destruction into the northeast. dumping up to 10 inches of rain in some parts of the region. several areas seen one night all-time record high totals for the month of september. new york city taking a direction hit from the tropical storm with subways turning into walls of water and floods pushing cars down streets. the storm once again turning deadly when basement apartments were submerged, trapping residents. while the east got too much water, the bone dry west in the second decade of extreme drought, finally hit a tipping point. lake mead dropping to the lowest level on record, triggering severe unprecedented restrictions over how much water states could use from the connecting colorado river system, hitting arizona agriculture the hardest. >> the pie is drinking and there is less water for everyone in the 21st century. >> to help address the mounting issues, the bipartisan infrastructure bill was signed into law in november. included are historically levels of funding for climate resilient and weatherization. clean energy investments and capping orphaned oil and gas wells. >> despite the cynics, democrats and republicans can come together and deliver results. >> reporter: this should be where the story ends. and once did. until a wild and rare week of extreme weather struck in december. tornados tearing through kentucky, and neighboring states killing scores and leveling multiple towns. entire communities left in ruins. >> mayfield will be okay. >> reporter: just five days later, a historic storm leaving a trail of destruction stretching from the west coast to the great lakes. minnesota recording its first ever tornado in the month of december. as 2021 comes to a close, a country weary from a prolonged pandemic bases for what is certain to be another year of extremes. i'm al roker, nbc news. >> joining me now is editor at large david willis wells, the author of the uninhabitual earth. those images are horrifying. the events themselves were horrifying. it is all great to say, hey listen, we rejoined the paris climate accord, wonderful, yes we signed this infrastructure bill that did put money into resiliency, but let's be real here, it is nothing in comparison to the scope of the problem. >> yeah, i think whatever happens with the build back better bill, the u.s. is not heading towards a next year carbon situation on the time library that joe biden would like. and i think that leaves the rest of the world and ourselves in a really tough spot. it is been a brutal year as that segment just illustrated. and it is not just how many extreme events but how extreme they were. the pacific heat dome in particular was so off the charts of most climate scientists' expectations that many think we have to revise some of our models to account for the extremes going forward. and even if we do enter into a rapid of decash onization, which is possible because renewable energy is getting cheap fast which means we'll have more warming and it will be specially hard in parts of world like south africa and south asia where they won't be able to respond like the midwest did and feeling the dramatic more climb change than we could imagine. >> let me ask the way technology is moving and it is rapid and clean energy is getting cheaper by the day. there is a point where technology will catch up with the problem, is there a point where we could turn things around because we've come up with something brilliant or is that a pipe dream? >> well, i think we have the magical technology now. 90% of the world is now living in places where renewable energy is cheaper than dirty energy. much of the world is living in places where renewable energy is continuing to run old fossil fuel infrastructure, even if our markets were working perfectly, we would be well long this green transition already, but the problem is all of the obstacles in our political economy, our status quo bias, our resistance to change generally around the world. but there was a very exciting and i think encouraging study that was put out by oxford a couple of months ago suggesting that the pace of development and progress on renewable energy is so fast that there isn't all that much public support required to bring the world into alignment with a two degrees celsius goal. all that we need is to sort of get out of the way of the technology change. further afield technologies are also coming down the pike and they allow us to take some of the carbon out of the atmosphere and reduce our future burden of past climate change. but i don't think we need to wait, the stuff we need is here today, we just need to put it into place and stop burning so much fossil fuel along the way. >> that is good news. let me ask you one more quick question, we're running out of time about the ice shelf up in the antarctic, that is breaking out and melting at a rate, talking about sea level rise of 10 feet across the world, what sort of time line are we on with that? >> well, the timeline for making that melt inevitable is quite short. so scientists released new research this week saying it could be made inevitable in as soon as five years but they're not saying the whole sheet will collapse. at that point we won't be able to reverse the melt. we're still talking about decades or centuries before that sea level rise is baked in. something like ten feet is probable by 2100 but i wouldn't count on it happening in the next five years. the problem is we only have that much time to take control of the problem. >> 2100 sond sounds like a long time away, that is your grandkids is a live. so it is not that long when you think about generations. always good to see you, even on stories like this. we'll be right back after a quick break. emerge tremfyant®. with tremfya®, adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis... ...can uncover clearer skin and improve symptoms at 16 weeks. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge tremfyant® with 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