so by now you have probably heard it a dozen times. this week on capitol hill will be a make or break test for president biden's agenda. congress is working to pass a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package and a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, all while trying to avoid a government shutdown and a debt crisis. and just in the last few hours the timeline on that agenda has actually gotten a little bit clearer. now, in a new letter to colleagues released tonight, speaker pelosi announced a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill is now slated for thursday. debate on that is set to begin tomorrow morning. in a letter on friday, though, speaker nancy pelosi described the next few times as a time of great intensity. here is what pelosi had to say this morning about that bipartisan infrastructure bill which was originally scheduled to be voted on before. >> are you confident these progressive members will vote yes even though she says no? >> let me just say we're going to pass the bill this week. we will bring to the floor tomorrow for consideration. but, you know, i'm never bringing a bill to the floor that doesn't have the votes. >> so speaker pelosi's new announcement tonight, does that mean she has the votes? looks like we'll find that out on thursday. now, the speaker isn't new to this dance but this week poses possibly the most difficult test she's had to face since passing the affordable care act a decade ago. whatever happens in the house, even pelosi knows it all comes down to the senate. >> how are you negotiating with the senate if joe manchin hasn't told you what he wants? >> that's negotiation on the senate side. >> things on the senate side may have gotten more complicated not from senator joe manchin but the other so-called moderate senator, arizona's kyrsten sinema, who quite frankly is more a conservative democrat than a moderate one. "the new york times" is reporting sinema has privately told colleagues she will not accept any corporate or income tax increases to pay for democrats' spending increases. we spoke to mazie hirono from hawaii. >> let's hope she changes her mind. what we need to hear from kyrsten and joe is what programs they want to cut from the bills. >> there's a lot on the line here and right now biden's approval ratings are underwater. the president needs a win, perhaps two. it's not just that the honeymoon is over for the president. the marriage between biden and the public is on the rocks. the only way to save that marriage is enacting as much as possible of biden's two-part $4 trillion infrastructure plan. can democrats pull it together? can biden keep his vow to the american people? or are we heading towards splitsville? let's discuss all of this with my panel, a congressional reporter for "the washington post." he's been closely following the latest developments on the hill. maria hinojosa is anchor and executive producer of npr and a journalist with a nearly 30-year career who wrote the memoir "once i was you." also joining us someone who knows the halls of the capitol all too well, former republican congressman david jolly, an msnbc political analyst. great to have all through of you with us. we have a lot to talk about this hour. mike, let's listen to two house democrats here on the opposite side of this divide, representative gottheimer, represent jayapal and what they had to say just this morning. >> i support reconciliation. so -- and so do my colleagues. you know, we meet all the time. let me tell you, we all agree that we need a reconciliation package. and i think that's important for everyone to understand. that doesn't mean -- these are two separate bills, right? you've got infrastructure, historic, once in a century, there's no reason we shouldn't pass that right away. >> i don't believe there will be a vote. the speaker is an incredibly good vote counter and she knows exactly where her caucus stands. and we've been really clear on that. >> the votes aren't there? >> the votes aren't there. i don't think she's going to bring it up. >> this was just a couple of hours ago, maybe 12 hours ago or so. they were still talking past each other this morning. i get the question for you is, does pelosi now have the votes if she's confident this is going to take place on thursday? >> well, thanks for having me, ayman. four days is an eternity in congress time. and, you know, if she doesn't have the votes today, she at least sees a path to getting the votes. i think what congresswoman jayapal said this morning, this vote will be delayed, she's right, the vote is being delayed. the reason is they don't have the votes right now. but speaker pelosi thinks there's a pathway here. she has been in congress for 30 plus years. and she has learned one thing, one truism about congress, which is you don't make progress by taking the pressure off, you make progress by putting the pressure on. and she believes that by setting this deadline, she's going to be able to make some people come to jesus, as they say, and actually make some decisions here and trying to move them off of these very entrenched positions. you don't do that by moving the deadline by a week, you get it by putting the pressure on. >> david jolly, who is under tremendous pressure, to take mike's point here that you get things done by using pressure, progressives or the so-called moderates? >> well, ayman, i would say the democrats at large, because this is largely a pressure point of their own creation, right? we have two bills. we have the $850 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill that passed the senate with republican votes. and honestly, what kevin mccarthy could do is really muck up this week by releasing his caucus, because there are probably more than 218 votes in the house for the bipartisan bill. and then the american people say, well, why aren't we just going to pass that, that's an enormous accomplishment. but the democrats have this internal caucus issue between the progressives and the so-called moderates because the progressives want the $3.5 trillion bill in addition. but even if they get that, right, even if pelosi pulls this off and never doubt nancy pelosi, she's remarkable at vote counting, never doubt her, but even if the house passes both these bills, the senate's not going to pass the $3.5 trillion bill. so what then? and we are left with an $850 billion plus infrastructure bill that actually has broad support among republicans and democrats. >> maria, "the wall street journal" broke down five key areas of disagreement among democrats on the build back better plan. this is of course on top of the huge disagreement just generally about the price tag. and here's some of them on the screen right now, health care, long term home care, childcare, climate, immigration, taxes. i mean, these are like the core issues of what the democratic party promised the base in the election. and maybe a better question is actually to say, what's not up for debate right now. and is it even possible to work this out between now and thursday? >> ayman, there are a lot of people who are waiting for this, they are watching and waiting. we saw so many activists descend into washington, d.c. last week, taking to the streets, not sure if we saw all of that being covered, necessarily. but everybody is on the one hand waiting and watching and on the other hand, ayman, who has me a little bit concerned is that this is so internal sausage making, sorry to use the term, that a lot of people have just disconnected. and that on top of what we have seen with these challenges facing the biden administration, do i have to name them, what we just witnessed at the border, with refugees, not migrants, with refugees trying to get into the united states, that i feel like a lot of people are like, you know what, we're going to do for ourselves, we're going to have to count on ourselves. if the job isn't working, i just was with a young person who quit his restaurant job because he's like, i'm not getting respected on the job, i'm leaving. i feel like a lot of people are taking things into their own hands which on the one hand, okay, it's great, but on the other hand, president biden was campaigning on unity, we're going to do this all together. a part of me is just like, i really wish the progressives would just make stuff happen, yet we're held back because of archaic laws based on the electoral college, et cetera, et cetera, that make it so that this is difficult to move forward. >> so to david's point, you know, once this even gets out of the house, still have to deal with whatever's going to happen on the senate so you're not anywhere near the finish line. david, let me play for you this other clip from speaker pelosi from her interview on abc this morning. watch. >> obviously with negotiations there will have to be some changes in that, the sooner the better, so we can build our consensus to go forward. and we will do that. >> but it sounds like you acknowledge the final number is going to be somewhat smaller than that. >> yeah. i mean, that scenes self-evident. everybody overwhelmingly, and even those who want a smaller number, support the vision of the president. and this is really transformative. >> the number we're talking about right now, david, is the number that has already been compromised to from what the progressives initially wanted which was closer to 6, not the 3.5 we're talking about. you served in congress. is it really, quote, self-evident? can pelosi convince progressives to agree to a lower number when they've already in their perspective, from their perspective, feel they've already made a tremendous compromise to where they are now? >> well, look. kudos to the progressives for convincing the american people that they started at the $6 trillion number. that was never a realistic number, right? so now we're at $3.5 trillion. joe manchin is saying, hey, maybe under $2 trillion. look, as i mentioned, never doubt nancy pelosi. she could pull off something that keeps progressives happy and moderates happy. but the bottom line, ayman, is the votes just are not there for a $3.5 trillion package. what does that mean for the democratic party and for joe biden? this is a moment where i think presidential leadership will matter. eventually there will be a compromise. if that compromise can get 50 votes, then good for democrats. but it's going to take joe biden, not selling that to the american people, but selling that to the democratic activists and democratic party that look, half a loaf is better than a whole loaf and we should take a victory lap for what we've just done. >> mike, "the new york times" is reporting that senator sinema has privately told colleagues she will not accept any corporate or income tax increases to pay for the reconciliation package. this is despite it having high levels of support from a majority of voters according to a recent poll, as we have there on the screen. 68% or so favor raising taxes on wealthy business owners. all it takes is really one senator to send this deal off the rails, as david was pointing out there. is there a backup plan if somebody like senator sinema holds her ground? what have you been hearing about this debate over paying for this? >> i don't want to doubt "the times"' reporting that she may have told her colleagues that. my reporting is that she's engaged in the negotiation. it's not my understanding that she's saying no tax hikes whatsoever. they are discussing officials. the people i've talked to don't believe that her position is that there can't be any tax hikes. she has said next to nothing publicly about what her positions and priorities are. she gave an interview to "the arizona republic" a couple of days ago saying she was focused on climate, she's focused on inflation. that could subsume any number of policy decisions on her part. what i know is going on right now is a crash effort from democratic leadership, from the white house, to get them to the table, to get them to pick a number, detail their objections, and try and find a framework, some sort of, you know, plan that can move progressives to support the bipartisan infrastructure bill later this week. that's what's going on. >> all right, mike, greatly appreciate it, thank you very much for that reporting. maria and david, stick around, we'll hear a lot more from both of you throughout this hour. coming up, how has the culture war changed in the past 30 years? i've got the perfect guest to discuss it. i'm going to be talking with dan savage about that and more. plus policing reform is officially dead on capitol hill with lawmakers unable to get the bipartisan deal over the finish line. what happened, and what's next for police accountability in this country? my panel will be back to break it down. first richard lui is here with the headlines. good evening you to, ayman. at least three people were killed and more than a dozen injured when an amtrak train derailed in montana saturday. five people remain hospitalized in stable condition. that train was carrying passengers and crew members traveling from chicago to seattle. the national transportation safety board is currently investigating the cause of the derailment. saturday night police shot a man near the u.s. open surfing contest in huntington beach, california. officers tried to get the unidentified man to surrender but he was not compliant. the orange county sheriff's department was asked to investigate. and switzerland voted to allow same-sex couples to marry in a referendum sunday. the measure was passed with over 60% of voters in favor. the country has authorized same-sex civil partnership since 2007. more "ayman" with ayman mohyeldin right after this. ugh ♪ it's time for ♪ 'plop plop fizz fizz' ♪ alka seltzer plus cold relief, dissolves quickly... instantly ready to start working. so you can bounce back fast with alka-seltzer plus. regina approaches the all-electric cadillac lyriq. it's a sunny day. nah, a stormy day. ♪ ♪ we see a close up of the grille ...an overhead shot. she drives hands free along the coast. make it palm springs. cadillac is going electric. if you want to be bold, you have to go off - script. experience the all-electric cadillac lyric. nicorette knows, quitting smoking is freaking hard. you get advice like: if you want to be bold, you have to go off - script. try hypnosis... or... quit cold turkey. kidding me?! instead, start small. with nicorette. which can lead to something big. start stopping with nicorette i don't just play someone brainy on tv - i'm an actual neuroscientist. and i love the science behind neuriva plus. unlike ordinary memory supplements, neuriva plus fuels six key indicators of brain performance. more brain performance? 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>> no, i didn't hear the question, i'm sorry. >> oh, no worries. i was asking you about james bond and this kind of debate about whether or not he is too woke, the new concern as "the guardian" was talking about that james bond, this cultural iconic figure that everyone loves, has become too woke. >> i don't think it's fair to say that everyone loves james bond. if you turn the hubble telescope and point it at my rear end, you couldn't find the crap i give about james bond, it's too small, it's too tiny. people and characters and franchises like this change over time. the james bond of the '60s wasn't the same as the james bond of the '80s. you know, it's up to the internet to crank everybody up on every culture issue or seize on everything and make it a culture issue. we probably wouldn't notice the change, it would be imperceptible and gradual and reflecting the changes we've made in society, as this character hangs on eternally, we are forced to endure more and more of these movies. >> let's talk about critical race theory and the important issues we're seeing play out in this country. this week you had a pennsylvania school district reverse a ban they had placed on certain books about people of color including children's titles about iconic figures like rosa parks and martin luther king jr. the reveral came after this strong backlash from students, parents, and teachers. let me play you this clip from one of the banned authors on msnbc from this morning. watch. >> chris, i wanted to give our kids better heroes to look up to, heroes of kindness, compassion, perseverance. then suddenly to get a phone call to say, hey, your book on rosa parks has been banned, hey, martin luther king jr. has been banned. my wife was angry but i was heartbroken. it made me realize there are kids out there, especially in york county, who are not going to be able to have these heroes. and of course it's absurd on its face. if you're banning books, you're on the wrong side of history. >> as an author yourself, what's your reaction to this? are the concepts as we heard there from the author, the concepts of compassion and kindness, just too divisive for certain people to accept? >> let's zoom out and focus on [ inaudible ] attacking. critical race theory really is an academic argument. they're trying to make it taboo to discuss in public school settings america's history of racism. that's why they have to get rid of books about rosa parks because she was standing up to segregationists and to jim crow. and right wing activists and right wing politicians want to prevent americans from educating their children or having their children educated about that history of ratism. so it's not keeping crt out of schools. if you're taking books about rosa parks and martin luther king jr. off the list, you don't want any acknowledgement of our country's really unhappy and embarrassing history with race, our racist history. and that's the end game here, not to keep crt out of schools but to keep what america is, what america has done, out of schools. and that's a problem, because then you keep out of schools how america has addressed its problems, how it's changed, how it's evolved. if you don't know where it started, you can't appreciate where we are. >> you certainly wouldn't be able to appreciate how we overcome some of these and with still a journey ahead of us, if you think everything is perfect and has been perfect from the get-go. slate published a lengthy piece on you. there was an excerpt that stood out to me. here is a part of it. the one-time rebel has become an establishment figure of sorts, unwittingly ushering in a popular sexual revolution of his own, three decades later, as the sexual landscape he confronts in his column has changed dramatically, savage is still grappling with that responsibility. i know that you've experienced your share of controversy over those 30 years. how has it changed you? are there things that you did in the past that might have been seen as revolutionary 30 years ago that are no longer that in this current climate? >> a lot has changed in 30 years. when i started writing the column in the very early '90s, you know, i wrote columns about gay marriage that even a lot of gay people were uncomfortable with, advocating for gay marriage. that certainly changed. you know, when you write about the topic i do and you write publicly, you get criticism. and advice columns always welcome that criticism. like my inspiration, ann landers, i always printed letters from people who were arguing with me and disagreeing with me and telling me i was wrong about the particulars of the situation or about an issue or a topic. and i've always had to sort of think and reassess and take in. it can be a problem now with internet pile-ons and twitter, if you're a writer and you have any sort of public profile, to remember that mixed in with some bad faith critiques from trolls, there are going to be people who have a point to make, who are right about you being wrong, and you have to still be able to take that in, even though it feels like any time you approach critics, you're opening a fire hose, you still have to be able to take criticism, hear criticism, listen. >> dan, i want to ask you a few more questions, so stick around for us, we'll have you join our panel next. when we come back we'll talk about bipartisan police, the overhaul talks collapsed this week on capitol hill. how did things get so derailed and are there any local efforts that can be taken to try and maintain police accountability? 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>> thank you for having me and congratulation on your new show. >> thank you. >> i want to say, we are not giving in on the george floyd justice in policing act because tim scott was unable to deliver republican support for the bill. it is an absolute outrage to me that anyone would suggest that the bill, the george floyd justice in policing bill, cut funding for the police. it's an absolute diversion and misrepresentation. the truth is, is that senator booker and congresswoman bass had worked closely with a number of police organizations and came close to what i think would have been an acceptable compromise. it was tim scott who for some reason backed off or could not deliver. now, i've had a cordial relationship with tim scott. and i don't think my comments are partisan. this issue is too important for us to suggest that because this round of talks has collapsed, that civil rights leaders, the families of victims of police brutality, are going to give up. it's time for the president to involve himself in these discussions. it's time for the leaders of the house and the senate to take this seriously. what happens when there's another george floyd event? commitments were made. there was a tremendous amount of good faith. so while i am disappointed with the point that we are at this juncture, we are not indeed giving in. the final thing i'll say, there are certainly -- >> go ahead, sir. sorry. >> i was going to say, because this is important, there are many, many things that local governments can do on their own motion, with their own coverage, with their own conviction, to reform policing. and there are things that the justice department can do and that can be done by executive order. it's not as significant by executive order as it would be by passing a federal statute. so we're at this juncture, but make no mistake about it, we are not giving in. or giving up. >> david, democrats, and to marc's point, he was saying these were good faith negotiations, democrats showed optimism about the talks with senator scott. but realistically here, how much can republicans be counted on to negotiate this in good faith? we all saw the movement in this country that took people to the streets and demand reform. republicans have just kind of diffused that moment, they've let the pressure out. we're not seeing the same kind of protests. were these negotiations really done by the republicans in good faith or were they simply meant to drag this out until it's no longer on the top of the agenda as we now see? >> yeah, ayman, color me cynical, i think you used exactly the right term, the former mayor did as well, good faith. i don't think republicans were ever negotiating in good faith. and whether or not tim scott had an ounce of good faith, we'll let that verdict hang out there. but republicans writ large had no interest in police reform, for really two reasons. the defund the police narrative, whether it is accurate or not, is something they would never accede to and any compromise would have played out with that narrative, that somehow they were reallocating law enforcement funding to other services. but the second was a jurisdictions jurisdictional issue. there is no way that republicans in washington would have suggested that the federal government should put greater controls on local and state law enforcement issues. look, i think the opportunity to continue to move towards greater police reform and justice here is through civil rights litigation. the whole point of this police reform is to put federal statutes in place that open up the courts to greater civil rights litigation. but the reality is what we are seeing on the streets, when we see these real dark marks in policing, it is around civil rights issues that can go to the courts, but the hurdle is high. that's where we need congress to act. >> dan, i saw you shaking your head there, do you agree the republicans were not negotiating in good faith or do you think they legitimately were and had reasons why they did not want to pass police reform? >> i think republicans never negotiate with democrats in good faith. i was thinking as the others spoke about being from a cop family myself, my dad is a cop, my brother is a cop, my uncles are cops, and i've spent my entire life listening to cops complain about having to do all the things cops shouldn't have to do, being mental health counselors, intervening in a marriage crisis. there should be a way for democrats to talk about reallocating funds to go to police departments to do things that cops don't want to do and shouldn't have to do, and instead of defunding the police, relieving police from doing things that they aren't trained for. so, you know, being the kid of a cop, i listened to my dad all my life complain about all the things the cops are being asked to do. great, we'll stop asking cops to do those things but we need less policing, we'll get to pay less for it and pay some other things to do these things that cops never wanted to do and shouldn't have been asked to do. >> maria, do you think president biden shares some of the blame for congressional action on police reform? he set the timeline or he set the deadline back for trying to pass the george floyd in policing act for may and now here we are in the beginning of october. should he be leaning more into these talks or is his agenda pretty full with everything else he's trying to get done? >> yes and yes. i mean, that is what we're talking about in terms of leadership, right? it really means having to stick your neck out and kind of responding to the people, because we cannot forget what we saw on the streets all across the country after the murder of george floyd. you know, i'm thinking, ayman, about the fact that i covered the murder of amadou diallo. i covered the sexual assault and sodomy of abner louima, a haitian immigrant in the 1990s. and to see that everything is broken down in terms of prison reform, you know exactly what i'm thinking about, especially after this week where we've seen men on horses with whips, call it whatever it is, it's a whip. and these people who are part of the border patrol, don't forget they were the ones who were doing the secret policing actually in seattle and in other cities. remember when there were people who were without any identification? those were immigration officers. so these things are tied. as the pressure is on to resolve the issue of mass incarceration, you have seen mass detention and deportation as a result. these things are connected. >> marc, a final thought to you. are democrats taking black voters for granted on this issue? because this was obviously -- and it is an issue that affects all countries but obviously something very important for black voters in this country. black voters delivered democrats congress, they delivered joe biden the presidency, they turned around his primary race back in south carolina. at the end of the day, are they being taken for granted by the democratic party? >> there's an undercurrent of concern which is now growing that the commitments, the energy, the promises, which led to historic voter turnout, may be dissipating because of what is really congressional inaction. i give the president great marks for a bold, visionary agenda, for putting vanita gupta and kristen clark at the justice department, for leaning in heavily on the issues of racial justice. what we've got is a problem on the other end of pennsylvania avenue where democrats and the democratic caucus has to demonstrate that they can govern. and to govern may mean what mitch mcconnell wanted to get rid of the filibuster to confirm supreme court justices, he did it. it may come to that. it's quickly coming to that. it's going to be a test of courage. >> that will be the center of the debate we see, in how many ways it can derail the biden agenda if things don't move this week. marc morial, david jolly, maria hinojosa, dan savage, thank all of you for joining me this evening, greatly appreciate it. when we come back, one united nations general assemble speech gained serious traction this week, we'll show you why, next. plus new bombshell reporting on the cia's secret war plans against wikileaks. 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>> well, there are certainly grounds for asking a lot of questions. just how far did some of those proposals go? as we report, the talk of assassination was in house. it -- at one point, there are requests from the seventh floor, that's where the cia director's office is, for sketches or proposals about how it can be done. but these never got forwarded to the white house. you think there were a sort of pretty quick realization that, you know, wow, we can't do that. on the other hand, the abduction, the natch operations that mike pam poi was pushing for did get to the white house and did provoke these internal debates within the trump administration that we document in the piece. i mean, this was one of the more contentious intelligence debates of the trump presidency and it was all done in secret. the public had no idea this was going on. >> yeah. and i wanted to ask you finally really quickly, michael, just compare for us how the different administrations throughout your reporting have dealt with wikileaks in terms of how they have handled assange and the handling of the organization. obama had self-imposed restrictions. trump declared he loved wikileaks but seemed to be taking a harder stance based on what you have been reporting. where do you expect president biden to fall over the next several years? >> it is a great question because let's remember the merrick garland biden justice department has appealed the ruling by the british court that assange should not be extra dikted to face trial. so they are standing, at least so far, you know, full scale behind this -- the indictment of assange. they want him in u.s. custody. and one of the wrinkles in the piece that's kind of interesting is basically, you know, when they were talking about abducting assange, they didn't have a criminal indictment for him, so the white house pushed the justice department to hurry up and get that indictment. >> michael -- >> that was the origin. >> some incredible reporting from you and your team. i encourage everyone to read that piece. thank you for making time for us this evening. and of course you can catch me every friday on peacock at 7:00 eastern and back here on msnbc saturdays at 8:00 p.m. sundays and 9:00 p.m. but until we meet again, good night. liberty mutual customizes car insurance so you only pay for what you need. how much money can liberty mutual save you? 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