Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20171122 : comp

Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20171122

Global growth is steady. And inflation is low. For investors, that means there are few alternatives to stocks. Thats exactly where people are putting their money today. Sending all three major indexes to all time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial averag advanced to 23,590. Nasdaq gained 71 and the s p 500 added 16, closing just below 2,600. How much more is left in this stock market tank . Mike santoli takes a look. Reporter the economy is humming. The dow touched a fresh high. And hopes are building for progress on a tax cut after thanksgiving. A lot has been going right for investors. Its worth asking if the markets are close to using up all the good news. Stock indexes did manage to push slightly into alltime high territory on tuesday, but the move came after the broad market has been stalled for nearly a month. And its taken quite a lot of positive news to support the market. A measure of how strong economic reports have been relative to forecast has surged in recent months toward a fiveyear high. Corporate profits were quite good in the third quarter. Stocks failed to rise after good results. The Government Bond market has confounded optimists by keeping steady. None of this argues that the stock market is at any crucial peak or is sending scary signals about the economy. All year stocks have advanced in an orderly way with periods of sideways movement along the way. We could just be in for another of those idling phases right now. As strategists fashion predictions, theyre grappling with the indexes having grown more dependent on tech companies. As for possible Corporate Tax cuts, they are largely viewed as a positive for stocks should they arrive by early 2018. In fact Goldman Sachs assumes such a path as the firm projects a 9 gain for stocks in 2018. The question now is whether cooperate profit forecasts and stock values have started to price in the benefits of tax cuts already. If so, those cuts could prove one more bit of good news the market is using up. Our guest is the u. S. Investment strategist at allianz global mona. Thanks for having me. How much of the news is factored in . Were at a unique time in history when there are earnings, economics, and low rates supporting the markets, as mike touched upon, which has led to low inflation. You also have this positive overhang from tax reform. I think tax reform, that question will be answered likely next week, if the senate can pass the tax bill, i think well get strong momentum into year end. But i do see im more cautiously optimistic for 2018. There are a couple of reasons the markets may take a breather. One is the fed, as we mentioned. I think the fed is going to come into play. I think they will hike three times in 2018. They will continue Balance Sheet tapering. And i think that takes liquidity out of the system. Thats one thing. The second thing is the tax reform bill itself. Were going to have to then roll up our sleeves, parse through who are the winners, who are the losers. Its not going to be good for everyone across the board. There are a couple of things coming next year that could pause the market a little bit. Is this market priced for perfection . Because tax reform is already factored in. As you mentioned, the devil is in the detail. Earnings have been good. But are they going to repeat . For a long term investor, do you just continue to do, you know, your monthly allocation into the stock market . Or do you put in a little protection or become a little bit more cautious . We definitely still recommend equity exposure here. We would maybe shift it a little bit. Growth has had a great run. Maybe shift a little bit into value names. We would recommend some of the names that have maybe not performed as well but have the potential going forward. Financials, energy sector, which has shown some momentum here as well. But generally we think theres a couple of factors next year which people may not see coming, which is inflation and wage growth in particular. We see unemployment now at the lowest rate postcrisis, were at 4. 1 unemployment rate. Once wage growth emerges, the fed will be on high alert that theyre behind the curve and we might see even, you know, rate hikes continue further. Does the new composition of the fed, janet yellen is going town Jerome Powell takes the oath, does the new composition of the fed change your projections or did it change your projections at all in terms of the number of Interest Rate hikes . Jerome powell was known as the continuity candidate. No real change there. The one change we did see from powell, from yellen to powell, is deregulation. So powell is a little bit more favorable on deregulation, whereas yellen was saying we really need those post crisis regulations to remain in place. Powell is saying, you know what, were way past the crisis, maybe well pull that back. Thats another supportive factor we will see. Have a lovely thanksgiving. Appreciate it, you too. Who home sales bounced back. The trouble nationally of high prices and severe shortage of listings is only getting worse. Now a new concern that the republican tax plan might make housing more expensive. Our diana olick takes a look. A living room off the right. Reporter in northern new jersey, where both home prices and property taxes are high. Take a look. Reporter realtor matt dunnegan says hes getting an earful from buyers and sellers about the republican tax plan moving through congress. Theres concerns about the mortgage Interest Deduction. Theres concerns about the caps on some of the tax rates. Theres concerns that because were in such a higher tax area, it will make a big difference for them. Theres places here in new jersey where the taxes are 20,000 plus for a house that is not a mega mansion. Reporter all those things will make a difference in the overall cost of a home, which continues to soar nationwide, as the supply for homes for sale, especially starter homes, hits a record low. First time buyers laura and chris want to buy soon. I would like to say in the next two months. But i also said that six months ago. This is the other bedroom. Reporter but the market is not cooperating. Weve actually been looking in various price ranges, in different price ranges. Somewhere in the Upper Echelon of our price range, people will completely just blind bid on houses, they wont even go and take a look at the house in person. And theyll blind bid on it before we even get there. Reporter chris and laura say they know the tax plan could take away valuable real estate deductions. But theyre still sold on home ownership. We want to go ahead and obviously invest our money in our future. We feel purchasing a home is the best way to invest your money. Reporter the competition is hoping the winter months will put a chill on that heat. Of course winter means fewer listings. Im diana olick in washington. California could also get hit hard by the proposed tax plan given the high cost of housing. Aditi roy reports from mountain view, california. Reporter mountain view, california is in the heart of silicon valley. Home to google, its a community where even the most modest homes along treelined streets will cost you seven figures. The median price of a home here, about 1. 6 million. But just a stones throw from multimillion dollar homes on the other side of the train tracks, youll find a community of rvs. The people who live in them cant afford r. The trailer parks are expensive too. Reporter hes one of those workers. He speaks little english, but he told us through a translator he works as a car detailer, making 14 an hour. He rented an apartment here until two years ago, until it became too expensive. So he moved into this rv. Its hard to live like that. Reporter his story just one example of the housing crisis in the bay area. That crisis, says experts, is n result o boo m. The bay area is ground zero for the housing crisis. Reporter experts believe it could get worse. The gop tax plan passed by the house could cut the mortgage Interest Deduction from 1 million to 500,000. It would cap state and local property Tax Deductions at 10,000, lower than what many homeowners pay annually. Some believe the plan would have the worst impact on bay area housing than any other part of the country because prices are already so high, and inventory so low. The bay area has a confluence of factors that really have kept prices high and affordability low. Reporter redfin just put out a report saying the number of homes for sale in san jose tumbled nearly 52 . In san francisco, that number fell 28 . And Santa Clara County reports between 2015 to 2017, the number of homeless increased in cupertino, home of apple, by 74 . In mountain view, that number went up 51 . The crisis has led to clashes between local governments and residents. Just last week, amid protests, East Palo Alto officials booted a row of rvs parked on a city street. Paris says he has to move his rv every 72 hours or risk expensive tickets. He says he wont be able to live like this much longer. Maybe a year. Because its hard, you know,. Reporter the housing crisis has prompted the emergence of Political Parties locally centered around the notion of y. I. M. B. Y. Or yes in my backyard. Im aditi roy, mountain view, california. Still ahead, at t takes out its boxing gloves. Its ready the ceo of hewlettpackard enterprises is stepping down early next year. Meg whitman says its time for a new generation of leaders to take the reins. Whitman joined the company in 2011 and recently refocused it to better compete with its rivals. Shares fell on the news. The Justice Department is challenging at ts proposed 85 billion takeover of time warner. Now investors are trying to figure o what has next to one of the largest proposed media mergers in american history. Julia boorstin takes a look. Reporter a legal battle is on. At t says its ready to go to trial immediately against the department of justice. At t sharing its positio on this website and saying consumers will not be hurt by the deal. If anything, this merger is going to cause peoples cable bills or their tv bills to go down, not up. Reporter thats the issue under scrutiny, as at ts acquisition of time warner anticompetitive . Most analysts say precedent supports at ts acquisition. The department of justice has not blocked a vertical merger like this one in nearly 50 years. But analyst Craig Moffett says its not a slam dunk for either side, complicated in a landscape where it would be a rival to other media giants. 70 of time warner content is sold to someone other than at t itself. Its sold to comcast, charter, dish network and so on. At t, because they directly compete with those companies as distributors, has the incentive to raise costs to competitors, which will ultimately raise prices to consumers. Reporter what happens next in this case will be watched closely as an indicator of whether future media deals will be approved. For nightly business report, im Julia Boorstin in los angeles. The federal communications unveiled plans today to repeal obamaera rules governing the internet. That could give internet providers broad powers to determine what websites and Online Services their customers can see and use. The vote on new rules is scheduled for next month. Roger chang is the executive editor at cnet. He joins us to talk about why this is important and what it could mean to you. Good to see you, roger. Thanks for having me. What is the big fear here with this move now . The big fear is that by dismantling these rules it opens the door to Internet Service providers blocking or slowing down traffic they dont want and prioritizing traffic they do, whether its their own services or companies willing to pay a premium to make sure their services get to the customer as fast as possible. What about oversight of that . Would that be allowed with rollback of these particular regulations . That is the gist of what the sec is dismantling. Before this happened, there were clear laws in place to keep Internet Service providers from treating internet traffic unfairly. The ground principles of net neutrality. And so with this action that fcc chairman aajit pai took today, t means the Companies Wont have any rule to follow. We basically have to trust these companies to honor the principles of net neutrality. Lets say the vote goes through, and this rollback cu e oc wh will the biggest impact on consumers . Its unclear whether there will be a lot of near term impact. I think over the long term, youre going to start to see, once these companies, you know if these companies do prioritize traffic, theoretically, worst case scenario, a lot of these services will get charged and pass down those costs to consumers. Theoretically, the fear is that customers will end up having to pay more. One of the other bigger concerns is, while a company like netflix is large enough to weather this and pay that premium, the next netflix, the next small startup trying to disrupt everything with a new service might not be able to get in so easily. Are they looking to impose new rules or simply eliminate or robac back the rules on the boos now . It sounds like theyre not looking to replace, just repeal. Exactly. The rules that were put in place two years ago, theyre dismantling them and not putting anything in place. All the proposals ask for is that these Internet Service providers are transparent with what they do in terms of how they manage their network. But again, thats not a law, thats not a rule that governs how these companies can act. Interesting. We will wait and see. Roger, thanks so much. Roger chang with cnet. Significa jewellers loses s luster, cutting its guidance for 2018, saying it expects earnings and samestore sales to disappoint next year. The companys Quarterly Results were also disappointing. The owner of kays jewelers and zales reported a loss in samestore sales, saying customer transactions and weather issues w. Signet shares finished the day down 30 to 52. 79. The shoe retailer dfw says the severe Hurricane Season took a bite out of its results. The company missed both profit and Sales Estimates and also cut its profit expectations this year. Dfw also said it hasnt seen demand pick up yet for its cold weather products. Shares slipped 13 to end at. 19 lowes reported samestore sales that climbed more than expected as shoppers rushed in to buy emergency supplies and products to repair their properties damaged from hurricanes. The Company Topped revenue and earnings expectations and said expects sales to rise 6 . Sales fell 1 to 80. 59. The medical device maker medtronic blew past wall streets profit estimates thanks to an uptick in sales for heart valve replacements. Even as medtronic says results were weakened by the hurricanes and also those big wildfires in the u. S. The shares rose nearly 5 to 82. 66. A founder of pixar is taking a leave of absence. John lassiter says he made missteps that made some staffers feel disrespected or uncomfortable. Lassiter is the force behind popular franchises like toy story and cars. Pbs and cbs fired charlie rose after a number of women accused him of Sexual Harassment. Our next guest is lauren rivlin, barrons deputy manager editor. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. Obviously this is top of mine in the headlines, certainly. But it hasnt always been for investors and for companies. But what are the consequences if investors and companies dont Pay Attention to these issues . Well, i think the consequences are that you get more issues. And Companies Find themselves in a lot of trouble both financially and otherwise. And it gets harder to recruit people, to retain people, and to interest investors in your stocks. Also mutual funds, i would think, especially those that are socially conscious, would be less apt to allocate money to companies that have had these issues or that they find are not addressing poten auctiis is that a corre read . I think thats absolutely correct. Mutual Fund Managers weve spoken to have said they actively avoid companies that are embroiled in Sexual Harassment issues, particularly lawsuits, because they feel its a business risk. What about boards . Company boards at publicly traded companies, does it really fall to them or to the ceo, perhaps, to set the tone and the culture of a company . Or maybe both. Well, i think it falls to both. Its not typically been an issue thats reached the boardroom level. But i think that is definitely going to change, after all the revelations of recent weeks. And surveys have been done showing that boards at least up until now have not focused on the risk factors related to Sexual Harassment and sexist behavior in the workplace. But its going to become a bigger issue for boards to tackle. If im an individual investors and i want to make sure that my investment is, quote unquote, safe in case there are issues at a company, how do i do that homework, what do i look for or look at . Read the news, obviously, go through corporate documents. Look at risk factors, legal issues surrounding a company. I think you want to make sure youre investing in companies that have mechanisms for employees to report behavior thats questionable or troublesome, and that you have companies where there have been issues where management takes an posture in trying to put an end to problems and reform corporate culture. Does gender diversity play a role in how responsive a compa is or is not to potential si i dont know that it plays a role. But it certainly is a factor in dealing with things like this. One of the things investors are looking for is more diversity throughout employment levels, and more diversity on the board, because of the feeling that in a more diverse workplace generally, the culture is likely to be more responsive to issues that arise. And definitely different viewpoints and generally happier employees when you have a much more diverse environment. On that note, lauren, thank you very much. Thank you. Lauren rivlin with barrons. Com

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