Transcripts For FOXNEWSW Jesse 20240704

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hurricane center. major update comes at 2:00 a.m. the reason why we're getting hourly updates now is because the national hurricane center can see this storm on doppler radar so these are position and intensity updates. we also have the air force reserve hurricane hunters en route to the storm that will give us critical new information. not a major just yet. i think the nac is likely waiting for what the hurricane hunters have to say. >> jane: that's right. the information coming in from the flights has been peniche seeing the upgrades in the last -- beneficial in seeing the upgrades in the last couple of days. >> ian: each pass through the eye, they were finding lower pressure and higher winds. we'll see what they find when they get there. they're likely less than an hour out at this point. welcome back in to fox weather. we'd like to welcome all of our fox viewers tonight. i'm ian oliver. >> jane: i'm jane minar. we're expecting idalia to reach the major hurricane status at some point in the coming hours. we'll see what happens. fox weather meteorologist bob van dylan completes our trio monitoring the live conditions from clearwater beach right now. how are things picking up in the last hour? >> bob: jane, a lot has happened in the last half hour since i talked to you. as soon as i opened up the door to do to this live shot about 15 minutes ago, i noticed i could hear the roaring of the water. hadn't been able to hear that the entire afternoon or the evening hours. that means the winds have shifted. it came from the east to now the south and now the southwest. so the winds have shifted. i can hear the water. that essentially has pushed up the storm surge. it's here! it's here in clearwater beach. you can see it. as we come on down right here, the water's been pooling in here. you can see it's filled up right around this region by the volleyball nets. you can see the palm trees taking a licking right now. here comes another wave with the storm surge as it moves through. so this is the 4-6-foot storm surge they were calling for. here it is. it's already come in. you can see they locked off the streets right here because gulf view drive is essentially under water from here to the other set of police cars up there. it's weird because where we were 800 feet away, the beach was wider and able to absorb the storm surge without flooding anything out but this is not. this is a thinner beach. you can see the way it looks. the water is continuing to stream in. this is the way the storm surge is. it's really interesting. it raises the water table up. it raises the water level through. then you have waves that come on top of it. this is by no means life-threatening right here but can you imagine a 15-foot storm surge, 16-foot storm surge and then you put breaking waves on top of that? that's what they're going to be experience in the big bend area of florida. cedar key, steinhatchee, that area up there. you really have to be concerned for them, because that's a 16-foot wall of water headed towards them with breaking waves on top. this is only 4-6 and it's only made it up right here to the -- looks like the breaker wall right there. but the storm surge finally made it in right around 12:30 or so. >> ian: yeah, bob, the answer is can you imagine that? having lived there in tampa, the sans no. that would be a catastrophe. that was the fear in the lead up to this, but that's what folks farther up the coastline, jane, are facing as we move closer to landfall. >> jane: that's right. bob, we'll check in with you in a couple of minutes. want to take a look inside what the storm looks like right now. mentioned the wind shift. that's a big component in the forecast. also, too, in the new advisory, the slower movement. we went from 18 miles per hour up in the north a few hours ago to now 16 miles per hour. >> ian: that's the only change we're getting from the screen and the positional update. the storm decelerating a touch. we're expecting it to pick up the pace, though, once again, moving closer to landfall. >> jane: the slower movement at least for the time being allows the warmer waters to help bring in the intensifying. the pinhole eye emerging in the last couple of hours also showing the signs of an intensifying storm, and i think the air force hunters that will be flying through the storm, that data that comes in as they make those passes through the center is going to be the key difference in likely seeing that upgrade to major strength in that 2:00 advisory this morning. >> ian: yeah, jane. just checked in with cody here in weather command. sounds like we had a gust in sarasota close to the beach up over 60 miles per hour. so up to 61. that's with that core more than 100 miles off to the west-northwest of sarasota. that is a live picture from cedar key from a nest camera. look at that water sloshing around already. this is a place right there in leavy county that we are particularly concerned about. there's a reason why cedar key had a mandatory evacuation. you can already see that water rising. cedar key is in through here. so you see the shape of this, how it's just getting tucked in toward appear lachie bay. that's what the -- appal achee bay. that's what the storm path shows. on the other side of the storm system, you get the significant component of onshore flow. it'll stay that way for several hours' time. you throw that in conjunction with the fact that this is an incredibly poorly timed major hurricane with the super moon today. now, we're expecting it to peak today. these were already going to be some of the highest high tides of all of 2023, and now you've got a surge that's helping to assist that. jane just pointed out the pinhole eye. when you got the smaller inner cores where you can see the darker reds and the purples, these smaller cores can intensify much more quickly, jane. that's what we're expecting this go around. this is likely going to be up to cat 4 status before it makes landfall. >> jane: you can see the deeper convection bubbling up on the southwestern side of the eye. you know, as that continues to wrap around, we consider the dirty side of the storm up across the northeast. that's going to help bring in the tightening of that eye circulation, the intensification happening especially as that pinhole potentially gets a little bit smaller but you can see already the outer rain bands making their way on shore. the 60 mile-per-hour gusts as you mentioned there in sarasota. this is a classic textbook form of what you would consider a major hurricane. you know, you get those outer rain bands that continue to shift in, and it's within those individual bands and now you have smaller, you know, more isolated threats of wind gusts, tropical storm force winds, but also, too, the tornado threat. we don't want to forget there's a tornado watch in place for the western coast of florida up around the big bend as the bands shift their way through. >> ian: a look at some of these gusts. you've got apalachicola up to 2. that's not even close to what that will peak out in as this storm gets a bit closer, but you could see this history line there. i wanted to point that out. myself and bryan norcross earlier this afternoon, we were watching this storm right along that meridian right there. this wobbles back-and-forth. that's how hurricanes move. if you stare at 'em, you see it move a little bit to the right, a little bit to the left. this motion, though, is definitely starting to leak farther off to the east. that was expected to be the case which will bring this into the eastern portion. big bend or a portion of the nature coast here when we're talking about perhaps leavy county, dixie county up to taylor county as areas that likely see some of the worst of this. let's send it back out to fox weather meteorologist bob van dylan live in clearwater beach. bob, the concern when we were talking about previously up to seven feet of surge there, that would have been on a path farther off to the east than what we got thankfully for the tampa bay area. that being said, you are still seeing some surge occurring it doesn't take a whole lot in the tampa bay area to generate a surge because of some of the factors that you told us about. >> bob: yeah. that's a huge concern, ian. we're trying to think if it looks like this around here, what's it look like in the tampa bay? i can tell you this is what is going on around here -- and it's happening just the way we thought it was going to happen -- as soon as the storm center was parallel with us across the gulf of mexico around midnight or so and started to peal away, the winds shifted from the southeast to the south and now to the southwest as you can see where we are right now and the water is pouring in here. 4-6 feet is what was predicted. it appears that's the case right now as that water continues to rise. so with the storm surge, interesting, a wall of water comes in and kind of fans out. then you have breaking waves that come in and push it farther in. that's what we're seeing. you can see the foam here. hasn't reached the road in this part. you can see where it bends up closer to the beach behind me. you see the flashing red lights. police have shut that road down. that's because the storm surge has covered that road. we're not going over that. remember, it's not rain water. this is saltwater. you definitely don't want to put your car in anything like this. the winds are right at my back. they're still howling. rains are intermittent. now, the main concern is the storm surge. how much does it grow especially south of here? how much does it grow north of here when it gets to areas by the big bend? if they're calling for a 6016-foot storm -- 16-foot storm surge, picture this big time with bigger waves coming through. that's just dangerous. what about tampa? nicole valdes is there and gives us the latest. nicole, how are you doing in tampa? >> hey, bob, i was talking to our producers here. in fact,this is probably the most calm it's been since we started our coverage earlier tuesday night. almost like an eerie feeling, right? like you know something is brewing but it's just not happening right at this moment. so the rain has calmed down and the winds have also calmed down. i'll point out where we are. you can see tampa bay in the background here. that bridge goes over into harbor island which is one of the many areas that do have the mandatory evacuation in place. you'll notice the waves just underneath that bridge there. it almost looks a little bit deceiving because of how much light there is. it's giving you a bit of a visual of some of the waves that are still kind of moving because of their being some wind and right on queue, there we go, there's back to the rain. so this is, again, an area just along the bay right here where that storm surge threat has really been the topic of conversation, the focus of it, i should say, because as close as we are to this area despite the fact we're not along the bay where you are, bob, or along the coast, i should say, this is an area that sees a couple different things. the storm surge very likely on the lower end of the area. in fact, the fact that we've had a significant amount of rain already, we're already starting to see some puddles, some pools of water start to build up here, so once that storm surge really comes into play here, it's only going to add insult to injury. you'll notice all the boats here and in the distance tampa general hospital, they've got flood barriers already surrounding the perimeter of the hospital. some we can see across the bay here. of course, it's dark right now, but we'll show you some visuals we captured earlier. the sort of black and blue barriers are about nine feet tall. and the extra tension rods you see on the outside of it are designed to only strengthen as the water goes up and the pressure and the weight of that water adds onto those barriers. so those tension rods actually become stronger and essentially really designed to keep all of that water back even when you're talking about four, six or eight feet of water building up around them to make sure that a vital resource like the only trauma hospital in the tampa bay area remains safe, that the people, the doctors, the patients inside could stay safe throughout this event. that's really been the focus of it. of course, we know of all of the resources across the state, the national guard's been fully activated. more than 30 counties looking at different evacuation zones and those evacuations, bob, i'm sure you've been talking about will really center on the areas, not only low-lying, closer to sea level, but, again, the closer you are to any body of water, whether you're along the beach or here in the interior bays, but one thing i'm really going to be looking out for through the night tonight as we watch this storm move is going to be that reverse storm surge. we see that typically here along the bay. all the water getting sucked o out, the pressure of that sy system, but we know how quickly it could rush back in and start to flood major roadways like bay shore boulevard. thankfully, those also included in the evacuation orders that have already been issued. we're seeing police and fire crews, even ambulances sort of make the rounds trying to make sure that there are no people still out and about at this time. even though it's been, again, sort of on and off in terms of the worst conditions here, so it's been a very interesting night for tampa bay. still not a time to let your guard down by any means, though. >> jane: nicole, we still have several hours left to go. we're still waiting for that official shift in the wind as high tide comes in in the next, you know, 30 minutes to an hour, potentially watching the bay of tampa bay really start to increase, you know, with the water. so we'll check back in with you in a couple of minutes, but speaking of the storm surge, you know, we're seeing it already on the beaches there in clearwater, here's a look, you know, at the current readings that we have in the st. petersburg, tampa bay, clearwater area. but you also see the shift in the wind, slightly a bit more so for a place like st. petersburg, but still clearwater beach coming off land, it's really been an interesting forecast as really i think a lot of the readings could be coming in as the high tide starts to rise. >> nicole mentioned the eerie feeling. that's a lot of folks in tampa bay watching another catastrophe go by. you had ian and irma to the south. now idalia which will be moving off to the north. but we have some problems here. i'm concerned into the high tide cycle early afternoon hours tomorrow, because now you've got this. you saw those wind particles. you were making this point, jane. that's not even a true onshore flow just yet. by the way, those numbers, that's above what would be considered the average high tide from the past 30 years. in this particular case, those numbers would be a little bit above zero anyway, because the high astronomical tide with the full moon. then you've got the surge effects. but these are going to build up through the overnight hours when the wind doesn't allow that water to flow back out of the bay. that's the one that i'm curious about for st. petersburg. >> in the early afternoon. don't forget, too, the winds will still come up out of the south-southwest as the storm passes up to the north. the compiling effect as you go into the second half of the day tomorrow will be a bigger concern. here is cedar key right now. look at the waves as they crash over the bridge there, over onto the road. you know, cedar key in a position for seeing really life-threatening storms. >> yeah, we'll be watching these cameras closely. we've got this vantage point. sox are weather's exclusive -- fox weather's exclusive weather tracker spoke with the owner of that bar off in the distance earlier today. they both felt like they wanted to mount some meteorological equipment. his camera there, we'll be able to watch that in realtime. wow! look at that wave splashing onto the -- i hope whoever owns that cadillac is going to be driving that out of here soon. >> jane: i hope so, too. you can see this buoy here in what we consider the dirty side of the storm, the northeast of the center of circulation where that eye sits. these wind gusts continues to climb. don't pay too much mind to the drop in the data there. that's just bad data that's come in in the last couple of minutes. you can see consistently up to hurricane force strength. potentially, we'll see that as this storm comes closer. >> ian: jane this particularly buoy is referenced in the latest discussion from the national hurricane center, the advisory that they put out. cody, what'd you say? about 30 miles or so from the inner core? this isn't even sampling the worst, of course, as we're waiting on the hurricane hunters to do that, but you do see, jane, some gusts approaching 70 miles per hour as measured by the buoy and that's not even close to the worst that idalia has to offer. >> jane: still to come. we're going to continue to track hurricane idalia expected to become a major hurricane before making landfall in florida. we are awaiting the next hourly update. this one will be a big one at the 2:00 hour from the national hurricane center. for now, we'll take a look, you know, here in cedar key, florida, where the waves are mean, crashing on shore already bringing in some flooding concerns along the way there. we'll have the full stats on what the storm is doing in just a couple of minutes. stay with us. to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. >> ian: welcome back. hurricane idalia rapidly gaining strength as moves toward florida. we're now getting hourly updates from the national hurricane center. idalia forecast to become an extremely dangerous category 4 storm before making landfall. welcome back into fox weather. we'd like to offer a special welcome to our viewers tonight on fox news channel. i'm ian oliver. fox weather, it's a companion streaming network. we'll be covering idalia 24/7 as this storm continues to be a threat. this is through every update to the forecast. we're always on and always free anywhere that you watch. we're there on your favorite connected devices, jane. if it's a tablet a smart phone, um, what? graphical calculator, we're there. we've got you covered through this and every other weather event. so as we continue to watch idalia intensifying in the eastern gulf of mexico, unfortunately, this was the forecast, jane, but it's found this pocket of very favorable conditions that's going to allow this storm to continue intensifying all the way up through landfall. >> jane: absolutely! idalia's threat won't end at landfall. there are actually several cities such as jacksonville expecting to see impacts. pier wolff, science operator officer at the jacksonville national weather service office is joining us to break down the specifics. thank you for joining us this evening. i'm sure it's a long night ahead for you. what can you expect for most of us in jacksonville as the day goes on? >> so the good news if there is any, is that despite this storm being a monster, given it's rapidly deepening, it tends to make the width of it decrease. it's a more smaller storm overall in terms of where the hurricane conditions will be. given the storm is tracked well over in taylor county and the big bend region, it's far enough away that we'll probably just see tropical storm conditions, mainly tropical storm gusts through the day and heavy downpours as well. interesting concern that we have is northeast florida -- and i don't know how much you talked about this -- is the threat of tornadoes. >> ian: yes. >> similar storm we had a few years ago was irma. that storm was also a monster. that passed well west of jacksonville. it produced multiple tornadoes in northeast florida including an ef2 that damaged an apartment complex south of st. augustine. we'll be watching that closely. where the storm is tracking, all that rain will make it hard for the atmosphere to stabilize to support tornadoes. further east as you get into the eastern counties, florida and southeast georgia, might be able to destabilize enough to get tornadoes. that could be significant given the extreme amount of sheer this storm is producing. >> ian: you mentioned irma. that was a beast of a whole different nature in terms of the wind field. that was in southwest florida simultaneously producing hurricane conditions on the gulf coast and the atlantic side. there in jacksonville t set a record for surge. that's not as much of a concern this go around but there'll be some water pushed on shore, right? >> yes, 1-3 feet for northeast florida and 2-4 in georgia. we think it's going to pass through and not be a problem before we get the super moon for wednesday night. the winds will already continue to turn off shore. that'll help our coast. >> jane: you talk about the st. johns river. i think that was a big talker with ian as it came through, not only just the flooding rain that happened but the river rise. what do you make out of this storm? are you concerned about any areas especially along, you know, the river that runs in a very unique way? >> you're right! it's very unique that runs north to south. interestingly enough, there is a tidal component to it up near the jacksonville area. we have very strong onshore winds it pushes water into the river. it prevents water from coming back out. the water just builds and builds and then the hurricane comes and then just sloshes it all to one side. again, this storm is going to be far enough away where that impact won't be as significant as we had with irma and probably 1-3 foot surge throughout the st. johns river in our area. >> ian: left side of the screen, you can see a live picture from cedar key. this is one of the places where we could see what could be a catastrophic surge up to about 16 feet. reasonable worst-case scenario there. over on the atlantic side, what about fresh water? what we're talking about rain falling from the sky, what do you expect for actual rain amounts? does the fast motion of the storm help you out a bit for that? >> believe it or not, we're actually hoping for rain here. it's been fairly dry the last several weeks. and the forecast in the eastern counties around jacksonville is about 2-4" which would be just fine. it's under what we would be concerned about for significant flooding here. west of jacksonville, we could see 3-8" of rain. here the rainfall probably won't be to the extent we're too concerned about fresh water flooding here. >> jane: you talk about the flood potential but also getting back to the tornado risk, because i do think that's going to be a big concern as the night and even as the day goes on tomorrow that has storm really starts to interact with the friction of land. what do you say to the people in jacksonville and the surrounding counties getting to safety especially when the storm comes in? now you're talking potential for flat waters, too? -- floodwaters, too? >> we have to pay very close attention for warnings. the problem with hurricane-related tornadoes is they tend to be very small, very narrow. it's very difficult for radar to detect them. unfortunately, it's very difficult. so often times, we'll have a lot more warnings. just when we see signs of rotation, because of the threat of the tornado given in the environment. it'll come down to if we can get any type of destabilization. we've had storms come through before with no tornadoes because we've had widespread rain that's too stable to get tornadic storms. we'll be paying attention to the eastern counties to see if we can get any kind of destabilization that could support taller storms that could yield tornadoes. >> ian: how bizarre of a summer when you have folks in northeast florida glad to see 2-4" of rain over on the tampa side where they're getting soaked by some of the bands that. they're 13" light on rain this year. big deficit. sure that helps. peter wolff, science and operations officer in the jacksonville national weather service office, we appreciate your insight and for joining us tonight here on fox weather! >> absolutely. >> jane: let's take some time to continue to time out the storm. we'll be with you all night long here on fox newschannel as well as your connected tv devices as well as the weather app. we're awaiting the big update at 2:00 from the national hurricane center. category 2 idalia making its way into the big bend of florida. we'll be right back. wake up, achievers. you're making the most of every hour of your life. except the hours that you're sleeping. so why do we leave so much untapped potential on the table? this is a next level bed, for a next level you. my circadian rhythm is kicking your circadian rhythms butt! it's not a competition. i know, but i'm still winning! so, it is a competition. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, free home delivery when you add a base. shop now only at sleep number. -can't sleep? -nope. i can't sleep either. it only gets tougher with age. well maybe you'll sleep better knowing progressive protects your home, auto, and business. wait, is this all a dream? seems real to me. nothing out of the ordinary here. >> we're back in here at fox weather, your hurricane hq. cedar key, florida, getting battered by wind and rain as those outer rain bands continue to spin into the big bend eyeing landfall from a strengthening idalia. expected to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane. >> ian: again, a special welcome back to our viewers on fox news channel as we track here on fox weather idalia intensifying tonight, as you mentioned expected to make landfall as a category 4 storm. that was from cedar key. the camera from our exclusive stormtracker. a lot of tech there, jane. you can see his meteorological equipment. he's got more or less an indestructible box with a camera on it. that's one of the places where we're unfortunately expecting some of the worst of this, a reasonable worst-case scenario, a storm surge up to about 16 feet! we have fox weather's bob van dylan live from clearwater beach. bob, what's the latest from there? we know you've been watching the water rising! >> bob: we knew the wind and the rain wouldn't be a huge problem for clearwater beach. in fact, we need it. like you guys have been saying, we've been in a drought. what we knew would be a major issue is the storm surge. not only do we have a major storm almost moving through, we have got a full moon which happens to be a super moon which means the moon is closer to earth, bigger tides. the deck was kind of stacked before this even came up the shoreline. here is the storm surge. we knew it was going to happen. as soon as the winds shifted, it's bringing stuff with it off the beach. they've shut the road off right here all the way up the line around the bend about a half mile up because water is -- it looks to me about a foot and a half or two feet deep right that the bend. it's all storm surge flooding, not rain flooding. that's saltwater. they blocked off the road here. they don't want anyone driving on it obviously. look at the foam that's left up. it took everything and is pushing it through. i've been looking at the beach junk. there's a brush. it's picking everything up and giving a good washing across the beach and pulling it on through. here is another wave, too. yeah, here you go. >> ian: bob, how much beach did you have there earlier today? how much did the water come up at that location? >> bob: this right here -- it's weird the way it's shaped. this is a clam, by the way. it was about 150 or 200 yards right here. it's clearly come up. the beach that i was in before when you guys first came on with me, it's about 300 yards wide. that water came up as well, but it didn't reach this wall right here. it certainly didn't reach the roadway. so right here, it depends on the beach. storm surge is really odd. i've seen it happen a couple of times. asbury park in new jersey. i remember that one. it's beach-by-beach, street-by-street. this is the first time it's actually hopped over the wall since i've been standing here. you can see it -- i'm going to move out. i don't really want to splash around in it. but it's worse here because the beach obviously is a little bit thinner than it is where i was. that's 800 feet down the way. right here, you see things are starting to channel in. you got the little break right there. you got the volleyball courts here and here. and it looks like the storm surge has actually grown just a little bit since i've been here. it's actually starting to fill in just a touch but i think this is about it. the storm surges is in in clearwater beach. it'll be interesting to see the measurement. it'll be close. you have the full moon, the super moon that's making it even jacked up higher. that high tide also came at the same time. high tide was at 12:30. we're still riding high with the tide. and the worst part about it, you guys, it's dark. so if you do try to drive through it and you don't see it, you're going to get stuck. i mean, everything is just going the wrong direction. >> jane: some of those readings -- i mean, one of the readings in clearwater beach, 2.7 feet as the storm surge right now. expecting to see the wind shift continue for the next couple of hours. hopefully it doesn't get worse than what you're seeing. >> bob: yeah, i hope not because we have to move to higher ground. there's higher ground here. we'll find it. you're right. this storm surge will be elevated, jane, until the wind stops blowing it in. that could be 12, 16 hours, 18 hours from now. >> ian: that's close to where we were with ada in 2020. that was a tropical storm in a similar position. yeah, just consider what this would look like. this is about to be a major hurricane. it centers about 100 miles off shore of pinellas county where you are, bob. so this just gives you the tiniest little perspective. how vulnerable an area is to storm surge. bob, we'll be checking back in with you. >> jane: absolutely! tough to see. the volleyball courts there already swamped in ocean water. florida certainly feeling the impacts of hurricane idalia now. want to head out to the national weather service in tampa bay where matt anderson, science operator, is joining us to discuss more details. we're seeing a wind shift. what are your biggest concerns going into the rest of the night? >> you guys have talked about here recently, especially the storm surge. we could be looking at up to 16 feet up there in cedar key like you guys were covering and already seeing the storm surge impacts down to clearwater beach as well. 4-6 feet of storm surge moving into tampa bay is what is forecast. and, again, we're already seeing some of those impacts. there on the video there from cedar key like you guys have been showing, potentially 16 feet. hurricane hermine, the category 1 several years ago, produced six feet of storm surge there. so we're expecting up to 16 16 feet, just incredible, um, you know, amount of storm surge and water we're expecting. >> ian: yeah, matt, we're staring at a live picture of the poorly-placed cadillac there on cedarky key up in -- cedar key up in levy county. from north to south, the national weather service office has got to be a couple hundred miles you're forecasting, sarasota, you've got a much lower surge but for the northern counties, this is practically a worst-case scenario for surge. >> oh, absolutely. you couldn't have said it be better. worst-case scenario for surge across the big bend area, leavy, citrus and dixie counties as well. in fact, i got a report from one of our forecasters, sarasota is still getting wind, gusts up to 60 or 70 miles per hour. that's the highest wind gusts we've seen from a land-based site so far. so the wind is there as well. like you said, a low-end or category 4 hurricane now is forecast to make landfall across the big bend, nature coast area early this morning. that's what we're looking at and the impacts of what we'll be dealing with here as we go throughout the night and into the early morning hours. >> jane: you talk about how tampa bay is in some ways kind been in a position where they've been spared the worst in the last several events that came into florida. ian took the turn to the south. how is idalia been different from the past storms? how's that changed your mes messaging? >> the surge like you saw in clearwater beach there on the video from your reporter, you saw storm surge flooding there -- the real interesting part is going to be as the storm pulls away, that's when you get the wind direction, the onshore wind direction where you could see more surge or they keep the surge elevated with the king tides you guys have been talking about as well with the tide peaking again early tomorrow afternoon and the wind direction being from the southwest, kind of keeping that water, um, on shore there, so it'll be interesting to see how much surge remains in place even as we go into the day tomorrow. >> ian: matt, wanted to get your thoughts on that. even in the absence of a monster, what we're expecting to become a category 4 hurricane out in the gulf of mexico immediately off to the west, tomorrow afternoon, the early afternoon, at least in places like st. pete pier, that was expected to be one of the highest high tides of the entire year because of that super moon and from just about now through that period, we've got this onshore flow. so this particular high tide, not a lot of that water is going to be able to make it out to the bay, even as this storm moves well off to the north tomorrow. do you have concern for that high tide cycle early afternoon tomorrow? or today, actually now. early wednesday! >> yeah, today. we do have concern for that because it's going to be one of those things where the winds are beginning to slack off, die down a little bit and the rain is easing up as the storm, as idalia pulls out, so, um, you know, we're messaging for folks not to let their guard down when that happens, it's because that wind is going to be from the southwest shifting around to the southwest, kind of keeping that water piled up on shore. so that's been our main -- one of our main messages is to not let your guard down as the storm begins to pull away. >> jane: which can happen especially as the sun comes out into the afternoon, and i think a lot of people breathing that sigh of relief as idalia pulls up to the north but water still high. matt anderson, science and operations officer for the national weather service out of tampa bay. wish you the best as we continue to forecast the next couple of hours. all right, want to check in on our fox team on the ground here in florida. in fact, we have fox news reporter matt finn who will join us live from tampa. matt, how are the conditions there as they've unfolded tonight? >> matt: we are on st. pete beach, which is about a 20-minute or 30-minute drive west of tampa. this is one of the barrier islands. right now, this is the strongest wind we've seen since we've gotten here. and, um, rather notable, the ocean is slowly swallowing this entire beach. the water line now has been creeping up steadily throughout the night. i say at least 20 or 30 feet. and you can see some of the sea foam here now has even further up than the actual water line. so this could be a combination of that storm surge or that high tide. but we're absolutely seeing a lot of water flowing on shore here right now. it is being pushed in the direction of the wind which i would estimate is moving very dramatically toward the northeast right now based on where we're standing. so these are the worst conditions so far that we have seen over the past six hours here in st. pete beach. >> ian: yeah, matt, we know right there on st. pete beach the kind of local secret down south, you make the left and you get to passa grill up and down pinellas county, the beautiful beaches. there in st. pete beach, you measured the water rise of up to three feet over the average high tide. yes, we're seeing significant water rise there. we'll be checking back in. fox news reporter matt finn. thank you for being with us tonight here on fox weather. >> jane: in marion county, we have deborah cho who is joining us right now. how is the situation unfolding inland? communities have taken on evacuees that have been ordered closer to coast line? >> this is actually the most rain we've seen actually all night. we have been pretty quiet in marion county, so not the same situation that you're seeing down in st. pete, clearwater, tampa area, but, of course, we know it is coming, right? we still have a long way to go here. but, here in marion county, they're telling people to not let their guards down. just because the storm has shifted a little bit west, you still need to be on alert, because our biggest threat here in ocala is going to be the power outages. actually behind me in this area is where there's a lot of linemen trucks. this one right here is actually from virginia. i was speaking from a crew from ohio. they're all ready to stand by. about 1,000 people not very far away from us are ready as soon as they are called to assist. i was actually at an equestrian center, the world equestrian center speaking to people who were evacuating from leavy county which we know is going to be very dangerous once the storm surge does hit that area, they've evacuated to the equestrian center because they have horses and animals. they want to make sure they can, of course, be close to them, so a lot of people in that area hopefully are taking the message seriously. they're moving in. these hotels completely booked in ocala. me and my photographer were lucky to get the hotel that we got, but they were telling us they're getting a lot of people from the coast line coming in, which is a good sign. of course, we want people to get to higher ground and get to a safer area. so, of course, as the storm continues to go on, we'll monitor it from out here, but this is probably the most rain we've seen so far at least as of right now. back to you guys. >> jane: all right, deborah. you talk about how the hotels are full. what about storm shelters? any opening up around the county for those of us who want to get out and get to a safe place? >> funny you say that actually. i spoke with the marion county sheriff earlier tonight. their shelter levels are very low. that means that people at that time were not using those shelters. hopefully if they're up right now and watching the newscast, the local news or at fox wea weather, they're seeing, ok, it's time for me to move. there are shelters open throughout the county and they want people to use them. if you know someone who needs to evacuate, definitely use those shelters. hotels are filled up but the shelters are definitely opened. >> jane: they're there for their safety. deborah choe, thank you. >> ian: we were take something the national weather service -- speaking with the national weather service office in tampa and jacksonville and one of the threats to pass the interior part of florida was within the powerful bands, rotating storms and tornado potential. we got a new tornado warning, mostly for southeastern portions of polk county and includes a piece of hardy and highlands county. this is related to a strong band moving right across the spine of florida. this is across interior parts of the tampa bay area. it's moving off to the north at about 30 miles per hour. there you go. you've got the intense core of idalia about 100 miles off shore but you do see in these intense bands of core with a land falling tropical system, there's a lot of spin in the atmosphere and you can get the quick tornadoes that form. the national weather service office there in tampa bay has issued a tornado warning within that band. it's for the southern part of polk county, northern parts of highlands and hearty counties and runs until -- hardy counties and runs until 2:00 a.m. these could happen quickly and go away just as quickly and they're very difficult to spot on doppler radar. that is a concern. for that reason, this entire area from southwest florida up through all of tampa bay over through the i-4 corridor and up into the big bend, the nature coast, i-75 corridor up through florida's horse country there in ocala, a tornado watch that runs until 6:00 a.m. let's get back to that storm surge threat, because that is unfortunately what is always the most destructive, the most deadly aspect of tropical systems. it is the saltwater flooding, the surge at the coast line. about half of all lives that are lost, jane, in the tropical events is because of storm surge. >> jane: up to 16 feet of the storm surge on the nature coast near the big bend. unprecedented. the storm surge potential is immense. how far inland it goes, too, is the bigger danger. for those who are sitting in these communities, i think of cedar key, we have that picture, you can already see the waves crash sog violently into the barriers, into the bridges that you have in and around that camera. you hope someone tries to move this car before it all comes too late, but the storm surge here is going to be so immense and it'll be interesting to see how this camera evolves in the coming hours. but as far as inland, especially around the big bend as 12 miles this storm surge threat could go of a foot or more. this a part of florida, too, that's ready to take on the storm surge in a lot of ways. you have, you know, the marshy land that's going to be able to fill up that water, but still. >> ian: nature preserves, this is a part of florida. it's low-lying and susceptible to surge. there are far fewer people than if this turned in closer to tampa bay but there are still a lot of communities along this. i want to show you the map again, just to get you a better look at what we're trying to say here. this is a reasonable worst-case scenario. you see all of this red. it won't be as widespread as what you're seeing on this map. this is dilling you a reasonable worst-case scenario. this will occur very close to that center, jane and immediately off to the right. that's as bad as it gets. but in some of these areas which we hope isn't next to one of those communities, there -- it's conceivable here that we see surge in this low-lying marshland up the nature coast and the big bend. we could see water 20 miles inland, jane. >> jane: also depends on where that surge happens. you get the rivers, too, that kind of feed their way out. if you get the push of water up the riverbed, you'll see the inland flooding become a bigger problem. but storm surge could be a bit tricky to forecast especially as it goes more into the event. we're seeing the wind shift in st. pete beach up near clearwater. a few shifts near a mile or more will bring in the impact of storm surge pretty quickly. the clearwater beach reading keeps rising, 2.9 feet now. we have our bob van dilen on the beaches there, been showing how the water's crashed up on the barrier walls onto the sidewalks. they've closed off a portion of the road there right along the beaches. this, you know, even before we see that full southwest shift into clearwater beach, that's expected to happen as idalia continues to push a little bit further up to the north, but to see numbers this high already, this coinciding with the high tide, too which is already making the problem worse, is going to be a real tough stretch as we open up the rest of the day today. >> ian: jane, i was speaking with cody behind me in weather command. the hurricane hunters are in the storm and they're finding a pressure which is probably somewhere high in the 940's, somewhere around 948. keep in mind with the last update we got last hour at 1:00, minimum central pressure was 958, jane. that represents. >> jane: a big drop. >> ian: that represents a drop of around 10 millibars. that'll be more than enough to put us up into major hurricane intensity at that point. we'll have the latest update, the intermediate update, the 2:00, that's a bigger one than these hourly positionals. that'll be coming up in just a matter of minutes. we'll bring that to you right here on fox news and fox weather as soon as we get it. this is all part of our continuing coverage as we track idalia tonight. that's a live picture from cedar key look at these waves, yeah. the poorly parked cadillac a car that should not be there in a place where there's a mandatory evacuation looking out towards some of the businesses there, the restaurants, the bars. beautiful portion of leavy county in cedar key. we are tracking idalia every step of the way. unfortunately forecast to make a landfall on florida's big bend or the nature coast as a category 4 storm. keep it right here with us on fox weather. is back now at lucky! come kick off the season with our shop and score game that'll have you cheering for more! play for a chance at over 25 million in prizes and money saving offers - like this and this, or even this! or try to win $100,000 in guaranteed prize money. shop your favorite brand sporting the monopoly tag for unlimited game tickets and get ready to win at lucky! >> ian: welcome back to fox weather. special welcome to folks watching us on fox news tonight as well. this is a live picture from cedar key, florida, as we continue to track hurricane idalia on approach, a high-end category 2 storm. we have inklings from the air force reserve hurricane hunters that are in the storm right now that we could have a major hurricane on our hands. we're waiting for the 2:00 update from the national hurricane center. as soon as we have it, so will you. we'll get you that latest information as you can see some of the waves crashing up. now, i do want to show you this. i'm ian oliver. we have fox weather's jane minar here as well. just when we got started here, jane, cedar key's gage representing water rise above normally high tide was at zero more or less, so in just a little bit less than a couple of hours, this is now up to 1.2 feet. and you can see live on your screen right now what that water rise looks like in cedar key. >> jane: the waves have grown in size. they've crashed over the barrier here. you know. they've already gun to flood out the road. you have the restaurant out in the distance of the camera. winds right now if you take a look at the direction of the winds, they've not even shifted to push in the onshore flow which will make the storm surge that much worse, in fact, grow in size by nearly in the worst-case scenario 10 feet or more. this here is solely the high tide just coming in. you can see how choppy those waves are. >> ian: jane, i'm looking at the gage here where we're getting the reading of 1.2 feet above normally dry ground at high tide. we're a half hour away from high tide in cedar key. this wasn't projected to be a big one but the one tomorrow afternoon, that's up above a foot because of the astronomical high tide. we know we have the super moon today. this was already going to be one of the highest high tides of all of 2023. that's if there wasn't a major hurricane out in the gulf of mexico. so here you go into tomorrow afternoon and to your point, jane, these winds aren't even purely on shore yet. this isn't an orientation that favors yet the worst of the storm surge. >> jane: you bring up a great point about what is going to happen after the storm leaves the gulf of mexico. i think there is going to be this brief period into the afternoon where the conditions start to subside as this storm lifts into the georgia and the carolinas in the afternoon hours. the second high tide that comes in as idalia pulls away, we'll still have the southwesterly push of the winds on the back side of this storm, and that's going to make the second high tide and the storm surge push last into the day tomorrow, and that, i think, is going to be the one key component in the impacts of this storm that last for 15 hours or more. >> ian: jane this kind of shows the point i was just making there, so couple of things to consider. the mean, higher high tide. that's actually a 30-year average of all the high tides. basically zero is what you would expect for the average high tide. they typically come in a little high, because sea levels are a touch higher from the last 30 years. but you also have the big impact this go around of that super moon, but what i was mentioning, you go big high tide, little high tide, big high tide... this one was supposed to be little high tide, and now you're getting a push of storm surge. >> jane: right. so it is going to be an unfolding situation that, you know, hopefully people heeded the evacuation orders. you know, there are still inland counties that have shelters that are opened, so if you have that window, take the time now, but you really need to hunker in. you know, this camera we've been watching all evening long -- and how this storm surge shifts and changes. i'm fully expecting this road to be completely covered in water. in fact, that car probably might not even be there. >> ian: jane, i've got questions -- i've got questions about the placement of all of that to be honest. you didn't know if -- if you were under a rock, you didn't know this storm was approaching, you're out of town or you didn't want the payments on that cadillac. that's the only reason for that to be there at this point as this storm continues its path up toward the big bend and the nature coast. that's one of the spots -- we've got the live cameras there -- we've actually got weather instrumentation as well to get a closer look where people shouldn't be for safety reasons to show you what the storm looks like on approach. but we're still hours out from the worst of that, jane, arriving there in cedar key and it's already looking increasingly bad. >> jane: you see here, this is the air force hurricane hunters. they're flying through the plane right now. they just made a pass perhaps just off to the south. new advisory coming in now from the national hurricane center and we now have a major category 3 idalia. max wind speeds of 115 miles per hour. so it's been that critical information coming in from those air force, now 120, excuse me. we're going to see the winds continue to increase. this intensification is happening with this storm. >> ian: jane, just a few moments back, we were talking about how we expected now a major hurricane idalia because of some of the information we were seeing from the hurricane hunters. we estimated maybe we were going to see a minimum central pressure which is a measure of the overall intensity of the system. the lower you go, the stronger it gets. we thought this was going to come in maybe 948. look at this, down to 945 millibars. and the wind speeds are up 10 miles per hour. >> jane: this is a big drop, too. because in the last hour, the reading was in about the 950's, upper 950's. 958 i think you said it was. so to see that pressure plummet the way that it has -- but this also, too, that advisory kind of coming in and that lull in not having those hurricane hunters out into the storm, we're still getting a lot of buoy data coming from inside idalia, but a lot of it is it still on the outskirts, on the per referee of where the storm is but here is the change. we've seen a slow up in the movement of that storm, too. you go from north at 17 and north at 15. as this storm slows up, as increases in intensity, now you're going to see the impact of storm surge that much greater with the slower storm and a longer onshore push of those winds. don't get me wrong, 15 miles per hour still pretty fast-forward movement. we can expect landfall sometime early tomorrow morning. >> ian: if you're just joining us, this is fox weather as we continue our coverage of now major hurricane idalia. if you're watching on fox news tonight, welcome! we're covering this storm, and, unfortunately, we just got this big update from the national hurricane center. and there's nothing good in it. by all measures, this is a storm that's considerably stronger and it's now moving more slowly, more time spent over these very warm sea surface temperatures, jane, in the gulf. they're up to what? 87 or 88 degrees? >> jane: easy. weighs move slower over the warmer waters, more time we have to intens intensify in what's ed to be a category 4 hurricane over florida. >> ian: go back to 73 years ago for cedar key where we were showing you some of the pictures of the waves crashing up on the cadillac. that was 1950 hurricane easy. that was category 3 storm. that's the only one across the period of record that we have for a major making landfall. you'd have to go all the way back farther off to the south to 1921, the tarpon springs hurricane, the great tampa bay hurricane of 1921. how far? ok, that's cody behind me in weather command. he's analyzing this data as it comes in as well. 175 miles off to the south-southeast of tallahassee and 100. this is what has changed, jane. as you showed us, storm slowing down. pressure is down 13 millibars. it was at 12. oh, 12 millibars. part of that is we were in recon flights so we didn't have the data. >> jane: this next hour especially as the hurricane hunters continue to fly through the storm, the air force there, we're going to get critical information. we just had one pass through the center. this really on, you know, what we would consider >> you know coming out of the northwest, continuing into the southeast and we're likely to see this turn into the northeast quadron and the deeper convecture to my surprise has been a little to the southwest of the eye. >> that's going to continue to wrap up to the northeast and that's where we have the greater impacts of those rain bands that continue ooh spin off into the west coast and we're expecting to see flooding rains, that storm surge potential and it's going to slowly kick off to the northeast. >> it's been kinds of wobbling a little bit and we're still having that northward turn

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