i don't want this. the margins were so slim last time around it wouldn't take that many voters to go that way to send him out of the white house. >> on the other hand if it is not a full blown recession if we might continue to see what you might consider a slight down turn is that enough to change the equation? is there a point at which it is almost certain the economy would have an impact? >> right. i think the economy is not good enough to lift trump and lift him out of all the negatives that he has. if we were growing 3% or more and wages were booming and all of the things he says are happening were actually happening that would boost him but they're not. and people know that. they feel it in their daily lives. the economy is about the same as it was after president obama after it was lifted to 3 herz for a while. now it is back to where it was. you look deep inside the poll numbers and people don't credit trump that much with the economy we have because it is not that different. so the economy right now is not enough to lift him above the negatives. if it goes south from here it is enough to tank him.