republican martha mcsally. sinema is slightly ahead but the race is close to being a toss-up. >> i called mcsally's campaign, they said it was an oversample of democrats, that is not an accurate reflection of the campaign. it is an online poll and does not include, the indiana one had a third-party candidate they asked the respondents to the poll. in the arizona one, they didn't use the green party candidate by name in the ballot, and the green party candidate in previous elections in arizona had got about 5.5% of the vote, that pulls away from a democrat, but regardless of that, there are 840,000 people who have already voted in arizona. and while you don't know how any of those people voted, they can tell in registration that 44% of the early voting in arizona is republican.