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Republican martha mcsally. sinema is slightly ahead but the race is close to being a toss-up. i called mcsally s campaign, they said it was an oversample of democrats, that is not an accurate reflection of the campaign. it is an online poll and does not include, the indiana one had a third-party candidate they asked the respondents to the poll. in the arizona one, they didn t use the green party candidate by name in the ballot, and the green party candidate in previous elections in arizona had got about 5.5% of the vote, that pulls away from a democrat, but regardless of that, there are 840,000 people who have already voted in arizona. and while you don t know how any of those people voted, they can tell in registration that 44% of the early voting in arizona is republican. ....
Somehow or other the polls are rigged because of oversampling is idiotic and shows a misunderstanding of what happens. campaigns always oversample, for example, groups like hispanics, so they can get accurate numbers. those numbers are not then included in the overall results of the polls. and this isn t done by the public polls, after all. we have the public polls converging to a seven, eight, nine-point clinton lead. 12 points today in the washington post /abc poll. and when you look at individual states, pennsylvania s gone. most of the industrial midwest is gone. georgia and arizona are competitive. hilly clinton may be ahead there. it s a terrible demographic cul-de-sac for donald trump. he s not going to get out of it very easily. and the brexit analogy holds no water at all for two reasons. first of all, those polls were close and bounced all over the place. clinton has had a consistent lead for a long time. number two, the british electorate is 88% white. ....
Republican side of this new nbc news/ wall street journal poll his support is up and the claim to win the latino vote, they don t hold up. 75% with a negative view of donald trump. that s staggering. put it in context for the non-political junkies throughout. they re terrible for the a republican party that wants to do well with the latino vote. donald trump says he would win the latino vote as a nominee. citing a poll that doesn t meet our standards winning in nevada. i think this poll and an oversample of latino respondents debunks that and 61% have a very negative impression of donald trump. 61% of latino voters end up saying that. and so that just really shows you the stark reality, particularly if you end up believing that the latino vote ....
Megyn: but, ed, speaking of joe s point, you know, when the polls were all moving towards president obama, many folks were saying, hold on, because they oversample democrats. so do these same polls oversample do not oversample, but when they called a thousand random people, they were getting more democrats than republicans. what s happening is people are moving, and romney made himself a credible alternative. the reverse would have been true in the sense that romney had a bad debate, this contest would be over. today mitt romney is a serious candidate, polls are moving towards him, women voters is very, very important because if he s equal with women, we have an overwhelming margin among men, and we ll win this thing. i still think we re going to win this thing. joe doesn t, but i think we re going to win this thing. megyn: i do understand if you win a majority of men and women, you win the election. [laughter] you do. but that s also what s happening in the polls. when people st ....
My little man had his first day at school today, families are focusing now on what they re going to do about the fall, and they have to take it seriously. and what this poll tells us and the reason this is such an important poll is 54% of likely voters say he doesn t deserve another chance, he s got big, big trouble. megyn: the poll slightly oversampled republicans, trying to get the numbers in the front of me, but there were a few more republicans in this poll than democrats. does that invalidate it? no, it just changes. look, these are not predictions, polls are not predictions. what they are are snapshots, and, yes, maybe this has a republican oversample, but when you look at a gap like that, at a 1-point gap, that s 14-point gap, that s not a republican oversample megyn: just to interject, i found it. it has 36% republicans, 34% democrats and the rest undeclared. i mean, look, let s say that ....