but the reason christine lagarde and other economists are concerned about the impact is so far everything we've seen as an impact from this trade war or trade conflict has been in line with what we expected however the question the big question is what is the magnitude of the impact if that trade conflict escalates further and unfortunately or better fortunately we do not have an recent episode of something like that happening that is we do not have the data to clearly say what will happen if a country like the united states imposes tariffs on all of its imports from china and imposes terror of the magnitude of ten fifteen twenty five percent so we can simulate the fact in our models but there's a lot of uncertainty about whether or not these models properly reflect the impact of a major escalation of this trade war stephanie thank you very much. pick