Welcome and a lot of experts and spark people and also to give a shout out to the ambassador martin. And whos a dear friend of ours and interested in history among other things and i note that we are having swift day onnovember 9. Something, a tradition we have longserved. This event is for our friend bruce hoffman. Bruce hoffmanmay have been the first expert on modern terrorism , period. He may have been the very first expert on modern terrorism. He surely was a valuable resource to me when he had rans office in washington and i was a member of the United States congress. Actually, with his bushy beard at the time, i thought he might be a terrorist. And i bought his job at grand might just be cover. Bruce tried to help me create a commission to make recommendations to congress on how to intervene before an individual who is radicalized, having radical views is protected by our First Amendment but how to intervene before a personwith radical views turns to violence. As we all know, violence is crime. The bill which was carefully constructed to create a Multidisciplinary Commission past the house twice. Then went to the senate where a prominent member of the Senate Introduced it and then all of a sudden out of nowhere, not a Civil Liberties group which had helped us draft the bill decided it was a dangerous bill and blowing up. The loser i think was the congress and the resources that put could have been marshaled some years back to help us get further ahead on this very tough problem todays book event is important because we get to hear bruces Current Assessment of the threat environment. Everyone knows how much its changed and of course, hes as smart as he is. I found this out because hes one of our global fellows. You need to know this. You affiliate with them, you get smarter. The third edition of his book will surely be used as a textbook in classrooms around the country. It now includes the creation and rise of isis as well as the origins of terror on the 19th century. It specifically explores the demographics of terrorists in the region find the continued tactics of suicide terrorism. Finally it examines the rise ofviolence antigovernment militants , neonazis and white supremacist. Understand, not all terrorists are muslim and not all terrorists are like all other terrorists. Bruce is joined by our Vice President bob litwak is no slouch himself. Bob has written numerousbooks here , he was critical of the term rogue state and i think one of his books as rogue state in the title. So explain that, rob. Hes quoted everywhere on the north korea crisis. To paraphrase woody allen, i often say that rob is in the 35th minute of his 15 minutes. Please welcome, i think is this just a conversation or is bruce going to talk first . Retreating is not my endorsement of the term. We will explain that in more depth but please welcome our senior Vice President bob litwak who will engage in a conversation with our very smart global scholar bruce hoffman. Thank you jane. [applause] and welcome to those here today and those watching on cspan. This is another in an ongoing series. Today you just heard from our president jane harman, he marked the publication of the latest addition withinside terrorism. It is the leading work in the field. Bruce is a professor and georgetowns universities law school of foreign service, director of his center for securitystudies program. As jane a redo he served as head of the rand corporations Washington Office and recently served as a commissioner on independent commission by congress to review the post 9 11 response to terrorism and radicalization. His last awardwinning book was written as part of anonymous soldiers, trouble for israel 1917 to 1947 so welcome back to the wit Wilson Center, nonresident global fellow bruce hoffman. Lets start at the obvious point itches today we mark the publication of a third edition of this book. What in terrorism changed since the second edition . How is this book different, how have we as a country changed in terms of our counterterrorism strategy and tactics . First, let me thank the Wilson Center for hosting this event and especially jane. Its a very nice remark. As i set out twice, ive been a resident at the Wilson Center twice and have been a most among the most productive years in my life, i couldnt have written my last book without the amazing environment that really does better intellectual discourse and exactly the nonpartisan objective type of research and analysis that we need so much and its a tremendous honor to be associated with the center as i have been for so long and thank you for the kind introduction and for sharing this. I first started writing about terrorism in 1996. An awful long time ago. And i never expected it would be in print for almost 2 decades, that there would be a need for it and one of the reasons for that is what i have always tried to do in the book is step back and give perspective. The book was First Published in 1998 and you can imagine after the number 11 attack it was tremendous pressure to bring out the new edition then and i thought it was too soon and the second edition in 2006 was selected through the prolonged Us Engagement at the time in iraq and afghanistan. On a level that continued today and the rise of suicide terrorism and the emergence of the internet as a tool for recruitment, even though we were using the term radicalization much then. You can imagine in the aftermath of the killing of Osama Bin Laden in 2011 , once again there was tremendous pressure to say you got to bring out a second edition and even then i thought i have to step back and see what the consequences and ramifications of those two and honestly significant events were. Thats why that 18 months ago i sat down to write the third edition and what really i think calls out from the need of a new edition was the rise ofisis , continued resilience of al qaeda which we will probably end up talking about because i still think that in ignored and just the emergence of social media as a immensely powerful and completely unexpected tool that has enabled terrorism to do things that are different from people before. Before terrorism propaganda, recruitment was flowing like the proverbial bottle with a message into the ocean. And if someone grabbed it or washed up a short, the terrorists had a recruit. What we really see with isis in recent years and again, to chapters now devoted to terrorism in the media is what we might call a previous wilson fellow , our friend of global experts on communication, what he called now which is the ability to use social media to very specifically target and hone in on individuals and animate and motivate inspired in violence and it was those two things more than anything else that i think called out for a new edition. Thank you. You referred to al qaeda and its thank you. Its been proven more resilient than many anticipated or was widely assumed because we dont hear so much about al qaeda. People have wondered what is the status of this organization. If really for most americans, it it was a view of wall street and the pentagon, people associate them with launching the war on terrorism so can you give us your assessment of where we are at with al qaeda . That was another reason for writing the book and it was to situate al qaeda in the broader context of where terrorism is headed and whats the challenges that still remain. Its about 40,000 new words in the new edition. The final chapter is completely new. And completelydifferent. Theres new material in all the chapters but the final chapter really attempts to put into context what is happening. Drop the war on terrorism, especially in the wake of osamas death and most critically, in response to the ongoing civil war in syria and thats part of the problem because unfortunately the arab spring and especially the events in syria weve realized its al qaeda. It gave it a purpose. Its resulted in the split that created isis but that didnt mean that al qaeda went away. As i argue in the book, al qaeda has been playing the long game compared to isis much more shortterm promiscuous attempt to burst onto the scene, to elbow itself into the limelight but as we see its reconnaissance is rapidly fading. It burned brightly for a time. Al qaeda argue has set back, by this time. Very gleefully observed as isis continues to preoccupy the world. To consume all the oxygen in terms of counterterrorism. And not incidentally, further weaken the confidence in elected political leadership, create fissures within western society, push society to embrace increasingly illiberal solutions to their security problems. Thats all is exactly the kind of narrative that they are seeking to exploit but thepoint now that behindthescenes , it doesnt get much attention but al qaeda is the largest single Militia Group because of a hodgepodge of various organizations and entities in syria so its the largest single terrorist group in syria today with 1000 men, highest rear liberation committee, controls in the entire province which is stated strategically ascribed to turkey. Meanwhile in the past three years theyve created a new branch. So al qaeda i think is attempting to marshal its forces to carry on this struggle but after all bin laden declared more than 15 years ago and i think remains a threat in the sense that even five years ago we adversary and now we faced two adversaries with and each of them have multiplied in terms of their branches or franchises. Which creates a more nostalgic men i where Many Americans had no idea while the military forces. Also in the news is which was lost territorial control over most of all, rocca, thousands of its fighters up close to 90 percent of the territory once held as now falling back into iraqi or government control and on isis. You talk about al qaeda and for the layperson, there seems to be a dichotomy between and focusbetween al qaeda and isis. We had joby work who wrote another book on the rise of isis and one of the teachers, you allude to how isis emerged out of al qaeda. The fisher from the nonexpert perspective seems to be should the group seek to gain control over and hold territory or should it focus on the kind of pan regional movements that strikes the United States and it makes that kind of a priority . Can you clarify sort of, it seems to be both at the same time but what that is and i cant resist this because al qaeda had been so linked to the charismatic personality of bin laden whose was taken out in 2011 but what about the number two . Im surprised with all of the National Technical means and new capabilities like drones but it is still with us. I think the interesting thing about isis, i dont think its all that different from al qaeda, the ideologyis the same. Isis portrays itself as the true exemplar, the most fateful air to bin laden and thats part of the rivalry between almon dottie, the father of isis and alzawahari. Isis is the id and al qaeda is the ego. The unrestrained, inpatient, its far more violent. At least within this horrific displays of what one might call ultra violence. And not surprisingly it oversteps its mark. Has no constraints. Al qaeda is the more mature of the siblings with a longer view. Thats the one thats not spending everything they are on fast cars and things but is sitting in the bank for the long term. But the problem is even though isis is far burning brightly and is fading, the fact of the matter is its here to stay for several reasons. First, we dont change the nature of terrorism that isis has done in such a short period of time, not just in social media and the use of social apps but the fact that isis was able to deliver what for a time what bin laden promised. They created this Supreme National caliphate of the Islamic State. The structure will remain a important motivation. You could argue that revenge and retaliation is a visceral emotion and a better rally in cry. We already see isis propaganda pivoting from help us build a state which is their old vernacular, their old recruiting slogan to now retaliate and avenge the loss of this state. Isis technologically is on the cutting edge of terrorism which is worrying. The learning curve of terrorists in terms of Adapting New Technology has caused them to shrink and that in that respect isis pioneered the use of drones on the battlefield. Wait until we start seeing that type of technology coming towards urban areas, for example and for the reasons i think isis is here to stay, not as a state but as a terrorist group. Its in their dna. It was a terrorist group when it began. The state didnt group work but they see themselves much like al qaeda as fighting a divinely ordained struggle so theyre not going to give up. Part and parcel of that and this beats to the similarity of the two groups. Visceral perhaps it in tone and style as opposed to ideology but isis to ensure survival created from al qaedas playbook. All these branches of the way al qaeda a decade ago created franchises around north africa, west africa, the middle east. South asia, Southeast Asia to ensure survival. Isis has done the same thing and i think isis staying power and longevity is borne out by a study that was released 14 or 15 months ago by the counterterrorism center. They reported that in operations against isis began september 2014, isis had seven branches. That double by 2015 and when the report was issued as of last year, isis had branched into 18 countries. That ensures thatat least on some level , isis is able to sustain itself and finally the one thing that isis has done successfully, much better than al qaeda is even before this seminal november 2015 terrorist attack, when conventional wisdom inside the beltway was that isis wasnt capable of operating outside iraq and even have the interest of doing so and people were stunned by this horrific attack but of course, terrorism is not serendipitous. Its always planned and premeditated, purposeful and the best terrorist groups are those that are strategically mindful and in that sense two years before the paris attack, isis had created a very robust external Operations Network that i believe still exists and is still poised maybe not to do terrorists type attacks on a regular basis but to do so episodically enough that it provides such a sharp shock to the system that isis once again is able to become relevant and therefore prolong its existence. Any guess where alzawahiri is right now or like bin laden, somewhere in the netherlands between afghanistan and pakistan . If you had to bet your overdraft, where would you guess he is right now . Even before bin laden i argued they gone underground in urban areas , seal themselves. Alzawahiri, we know for a fact that bin laden was not conventionally in touch with beltway wisdom, isolated from his followers. He was on top of all al qaedas operations. I would say alzawahiri is to but he has taken extensive security precautions and not made any of the mistakes. You read many of the accounts of manhunt, the book by cassie scott clark and adrian levy, the exile and you see how long existed in a modified. He took precautions but it wasnt enough to prevent him from being killed. Alzawahiri is always been a longterm person and i think was enormously consequential for al qaeda and even the possibility of an amalgamation of isis, alzawahiri is much like bin laden cultivated, he is the successor although i believe he has cultivated much more as a successor and is somewhat capable of bridging the divide between both groups in the future and thats basically not to give away the ending of the book but thats where it ends talking about that possibility of summary amalgamation or some sort of strategic operation. You referred to the paris terrorist attack and many years in prison and again in sort of putting a sullen context for the lay audience. People who are not on the expert daytoday level, there are two versions of whats going on. One is there these people that have become radicalized through the internet and their basically Autonomous Agents who have been fired by or inspired by the view that the alternative explanation that there are in at least some instances explicit links between external patrons and people acting inside. Can you put this relationship between people inside countries, we have the boston bombing, the terrorists in london. In inside terrorism, how do you address this divided where you come down . I think theyve been able to have it both ways. On the one hand they are effective in inspiring, motivating lone wolves or loan actors like the driver who drove a semitruck on the promenade two summers ago or the person who just all year ago in berlin drove a truck into a christmas market. But at the same time also been good at creating an infrastructure, a network to support those terrorist attacks and in that sense, theyre able to deploy the loan walls to overwhelm, to completely distract the Security Forces and recently the director general of an eye five, british garrity service and they have active investigations into 4000 persons with another 20,000 on the back burner. You would have to have an Intelligence Service with that sort of vast network to track that many people so that part of a deliberate strategy to overwhelm security and intelligence purposes, the Police Forces with the low hanging fruit. People who have been trained at all or have no prior contact for i think a staggering variety of idiosyncratic reasons or somehow activated and become terrorists. While the authorities are preoccupied with tracking down these individuals which of course , september 2014 mohammed was the number two in isis but this is their strategy, he said if you cant come to the caliphate, carry out these attacks on our behalf and thats an interesting thing. Alzawahiri said the same thing in december 2001 so even if hes fleeing operation during the invasion of afghanistan, hes writing this treatise published in december 2001 in the arabic language. He says the same thing. He basically talks about loan walls. He says if you cant come fight with us in south asia, take a knife, use a car. Attack the infidel but it was in paper. Within a newspaper, no one saw it. The differ