closing in out. >> we have to send a great signal and then maybe these people just say, okay, it is over now. >> trump tries to finish off his gop rivals with nikki haley rising in the polls, is there still time to take him down. >> plus balancing act. president biden is heartbroken by civilians deaths in gaza. but that it is still not time. >> they plan on attacking israel again. >> is he out of step with most democr democrats. and out of order. a new republican speaker grapples with the house in disarray. what could the gop get done. >> i want my republican colleagues to give me one thing that i could campaign on and say we did. good morning and welcome to "inside politics sunday." i'm manu raju. everybody could go home. the 2024 primary race is over. that is the message that former trump had for his republican challenges yesterday in iowa. the first in the nation contest is still about two months away. but the runway front-runner said he's ready to ramp it up there and move on to the general. >> based on the polls it looks like we're in good shape. the worse thing you could do is say we're going to stay because we'd leading by so much. get out and vote. because there have been some bad surprises. we have to send a big signal and then the people have to say we have to end it because we have to focus on cooked joe biden and the democrats. >> he may be confident but that didn't stop him from whipping out his nastiest nicknames for nikki haley and ron desantis. both of them are ramping up their own critiques of the former president but still struggling to emerge as a true trump alternative. >> nikki bird brain. sir, i will never vote against you. two month later, i would like to announce my candidacy. it is the bird brain. she's not up to the job. >> he means well but the chaos has got to stop. >> ron desankt us. he's got no chance in 28. >> i think with a lame duck and poor personnel and distractions, it is hard for mim to get this d done. >> time is running out to close the wide polling grab between president trump and the rest of the race. and the iowa caucus is coming up so if he wins big in iowa is it all over for everyone else? willet's break this down with our great panel. molly ball, isaac dover, and toluse olorunnipa from "the washington post" and julie davis from "the new york times." thank you for joining me. it is a lot to chew on after this week. pretty chaotic week. we'll get through that through the course of the show. we're getting closer and closer and less than two months away and trump is telling his rivals, if he would win iowa, that is all over. and iowa doesn't necessarily pick winners, is that the end of it if he pulls away in iowa. >> it could be. and trump did not win iowa and went on to win the nomination. so it is not that whoever wins iowa runs away with it. but the margins look prohibitive as well as overall nationally. but iowa is somewhere that desantis in particular, but really all of the trump rivals see as their opportunity. but then you have new hampshire, which is a very different electorate, and different republican primary, given the open primary and independents potentially voting. so i think there is hypothetically a opportunity for someone not as palatable to that the iowa electorate to make end roads in new hampshire. that is been nikki haley's prediction. so she doesn't have to focus on one state. >> there is always a change in the dynamics after a state and the polling an the momentum changes an people drop out. there is a lot that will happen after that plays out. finally we're seeing some of the candidates going after trump. a little bit more directly. you saw desant is and haley attacking him. are they having any impact on trump in the base? >> based on the polls, it doesn't seem like it. and four years ago it doesn't look like the way it turns out in new hampshire and iowa. but joe biden came in fourth in iowa and fifth in new hampshire and he was the nominee like three weeks after that. and then the president. the issue here is that the candidates are trying to figure out, over and over again, how they say to these republican voters who clearly like a lot of what president trump did and a lot of who he is and how he goes about things to say, yeah, we're just like him. except better in this way that is nuances. but we're not atalking too much and not turning them off and it is really a difficult thing to do. i don't think anybody came into it with a clear theory of how to do it and they're still circling around ways. >> and the elect ability argument has not worked with a lot of republican primary voters. even though the republicans have struggled in no small part thanks to donald trump, you're hearing more about the attack about his age. ron desantis this morning on "state of the union" invoked the fact that trump is 77 and the oldest person ever to be lekked president. if he wins in next year. biden turned 81 on monday. but desantis was not afraid to invoke trump's age. >> the donald trump that would be older on january 20, 2025 than biden was on january 20th, 2021. when you get to the point, the presidency is not a job for someone pushing 80 years old. i think that is something that has been shown with joe biden, father time is undefeated. donald trump is not exempt from any of that. >> is it going to work? >> well, we've seen this argument before. we've seen it from nikki haley when she first started her campaign saying we need a new generational leader. >> competency test. >> and now it is implicit trying to focus on joe biden and sort of by proxy also attack donald trump. now it is more complicit. you're seeing people like ron desantis, saying if yush pushing 80 you shouldn't be president. and i wouldn't be surprised to hear from this nikki haley. trying to make a contrast with donald trump and joe biden who they want to face in the general election, but making this a two-person race in the republican primary and until then they will try different strategies. >> it is too late to try an alternative meaning that the trump opponents are dividing up the anti-trump vote. look at the polls. nikki haley had a good week. donor support has been rising but the anti-trump vote is divided over several candidates here. in new hampshire, she's up to 20%. trump is still up to 43% there. and 53% trump is winning in her home state of south carolina. and desantis and haley are tied at 16%. she's getting some good headlines as you see from the graphic about donors are moving tow towards her. but what is her path for defeating trump. >> i don't think that she's found one. and you played the sound of her saying enough with the chaos. that is resonating and part of the reason you see the donors going to her, people are starting to get nervous as trump's rhetoric gets more extreme and people are reminded about the things he would do in the next term that they're starting to get shaky. but if you look at the polls, those are deficits that are very difficult to make up and the age argument, as isaac was saying, they're trying to thread the needle of criticizing him but not foepding his support ors. we agree with everything on him but he's so old. but it is hard for nikki haley or anyone to make that into a truth path to beat him rather than just knock him down a few notches. >> and chris christie is polling 14% in new hampshire. there is a anti-trump out there. but as long as they're in the race, they can't figure out a way to get one person to take him down. >> you mentioned that donors are taking a look at haley. and i think they all realize, especially we had a story this week about wall street donors that are giving her an audition. this is a donor base, that would like to see trump stopped, that would like to see a candidate they consider more electable on the top of the tike. and i think a lot of them were behind desantis but got cold feet watching him perform in this campaign. so they all know that the opportunity for anybody not named donald trump has to come through consolidation, and has to come through -- because trump is under 50% in the two first state states, that means on paper there is a majority of the republican electorate that is open to someone else, but are they open to the same candidate or going in different directions depending on how the field shapes out. >> and the candidates are still trying to figure out a way of how to attack trump. but there wasn't this development that happened on friday in colorado when donald trump won the race, alleging that he had engaged in an insurrection he's barred from being on the ballot. he's allowed according to in judge. but this is the interesting thing. the court that finds that the petitioners have established that trump engaged in an insurrection on january 6th, 2021 through incitement. this is according to the judge, saying that trrp, the former president, engaged in an insurrection on january 6 in violence from the republican rivals you would think that would be something that they would jump on. but that tells you so much about the way the republican politics are. and desantis asked about this on saturday, declining to comment. >> a real profile in courage in standing up to where things are, either on the idea or the politics of it. one of the dynamics on both the republicans and democrats, from the old "saturday night live" skit, i can't believe i'm losing to this guy. he's old and he's had all of the problems and he's at 39% on popularity in our latest cnn poll and the democrats look at trump and think say the same thing. he's a judge -- a judge in colorado has now put it in and 91 indictments and how could this be a competitive race and some of the fantasy that starts coming is that if the republicans said someone other than trump or if the democrats said someone other than biden that suddenly the race would crack open and wouldn't be a tight race. what a lot of the republicans are preparing for is that this is a tight race no matter what and that it will probably go down to a couple of thousand votes and a couple of states for all that we're talking about. >> it is a highly polarized race to matter what. we'll see which candidates emerge. next, democrats are turning against the biden's handling of the israel-hamas war. how much will that hurt his cti? that is coming up. a top white house official tells cnn this morning that israel may be on the verge of a deal with hamas for a pause for the conflict. >> we're closer than at any point sense the negotiations began weeks ago. there are areas of disagreement that have been narrowed if not close the out entirely. but that the mantra that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed applied here to a sensitive negotiation. >> a u.s. broker deal will be welcome news but there is tough polling on how biden is handle the awar. his approval is down eight points since september, 33% approve and 62% disapprove and while biden is standing strongly with israel, democratic voters are split. 51% say the actions have gone to far. and just 27% say they are justified. and our panel is back. look, foreign policy was supposed to be joe biden's calling card. he's touted that in his first came ad. but the numbers show that, that is not how voters view that. >> it is concerning because there is a big portion of the democratic base that is clearly gotten less and less comfortable with the way this is unfolded here. you could see that on capitol hill. you could see it in the number -- there is a small but very vocal contingent that has called for a full cease-fire and maybe humanitarian pauses. a big letter that the majority of democratic senators signed on to saying if you want military assistance for israel, you have to meet these following conditions an making sure that israel was abiding by the laws of war that the president has been talking about publicly but the think the case the white house is trying to make that frieftly and through diplomacy and all of the things that biden is experienced in, he's trying to steer a careful course with this policy with israel and with their degree of support for israel's offensive. that is a little bit hard of a case to make and you see from the polls that some democratic voters certainly did not believe that or at least are on the fence about it. there is a portion about not sure and those are the people that they need to nail down. >> an the president is trying to explain his views about this evolving war. he published an op-ed rejecting a cease-fire and expressing sympathy. he said to hamas's members, every cease-fire is time to reposition their fighters an restart the killing but attacking innocents again. i'm too am heartbroken by the thousands of deaths including civilians. every innocent palestinian life is a tragedy that rip as part families and communities. this is a difficult balancing act but by doing that he's angering both sides. >> he's trying to split the baby and speak to both sides of the issue and speak to the palestinians an the israelis and make sure that both sides are being heard. but the end game is something very different to pars out when you hear the president talking. what happens after israel finished this bombardment of gaza, what is next stage in you've heard the president say you can't live with gaza on your doorstep but there is no explanation of what will happen afterwards and in the meantime you're seeing thousands upon thousands of civilian deaths and that is becoming harder and harder for the u.s. and the democratic party to sustain. >> and one the most alarming thing for the biden campaign is what poll after poll is showing about young voters. that is a key part of his coalition and even the new nbc poll speaks to the polls. 46% among young voters 18 to 34 support him in senptember. 31% in november. just 23% of 18 to 34-year-olds approve of his foreign policy. and they recognize that that is a huge vulnerability, young voters as he positions himself for next year. >> and there is no question about it. and look, on the other hand, in 2012 or this point in 2011 going into 2012, there is a question about whether barack obama would get the youth voters at the same level that he did in 2008 and he did. he ended up exceeding i think by a little bit. so this is a question over and over again. it is more of a question given some of the policies that have been out there of what is going on in reaction to israel and that president biden is turning 81 tomorrow. and that is a big thing. and yes, donald trump is 77, but this is a strange proposition to a lot of younger voters in america to think you could have a president at the end of the term who is 86 or 83. >> there is a lot of reports about how the biden campaign is trying to shift its focus toward donald trump and trying to draw the contest. this is from arlette saenz saying what it could look like if donald trump is allowed back in the white house. and they want headlines like what we saw with axios and the times and "the washington post" about what a next trump term would look like. that is to some saying we should have -- the democrats and the biden campaign should have done this earlier and it is clearly the new focus and increased focus at this point in the campaign. >> that is the main argument that you will hear from the biden's allies in the democratic party when you bring up these enormous deficits among young voters. at end of the day, they don't think these are people that will vote for trump. this younger generation is further left and i think the way that these -- a lot of young people have reacted to the war in the middle east has taken some older democrats by surprise. but at the end of the day, they do not believe that those are people who will turn around and vote against joe biden. now the question is, does he still need them to come out? . if they stay home that could be l as much of a problem. but they do believe that is not a population that votes fror trump. and who else is on the ballot. because if they're mad enough for joe biden, do they cast a protest vote. >> for jill stein. it was a problem in 2016. and isaac, you talked to kamala harris about all of this. and there is also questions about how she's used and implemented on the campaign trail. but she -- there seems to be some discussion about trying to win back young voters and people of collar. this is what they said toi isaa. we have to earn our re-elect and i have the responsibility to do as much as i can to be where people are and to speak to them and listen to them and let them know what we have accomplished. what was your takeaway with her. >> the polls are a little all over the place. but joe biden is clearly having trouble with younger voters and black voters more broadly. and kamala harris is rating better with those voters. and in some ways it is like, bad and worse. it is not like she's great with these voters. but this is an election that many people, including the biden campaign, think is going to be won on the margins by slivers of vote and there is a need from both the harris perspective and from the biden campaign to have her deployed in a way that will help draw some of the voters in. now, the trick, of course, is that there are voters that she turns off and that is where you see some of the republican candidates who have focused on, well if biden is elected then she'll be president and they have to turn others on. >> complicated balancing act into ten week of chaos. after a bitter and chaotic week in the capitol. you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ it's been a long ten weeks in the capitol. a near government shutdown and ending the speakership of kevin mccarthy after a fight and intentions running very high with huge issues like funding the government and aiding ukraine to israel now punted until a later date. and yes, there was even a kidney punch allegedly thrown. >> got elbowed in the back and it kind of caught pe off guard because it was a clean shot to the kidneys and i turned back and there was kevin. >> i did not run and hit the guy. dy not kidney punch him f. i would hit someone, they would know i hit them. >> is he 12, come on. >> you look like a smurf here. >> i think the chairman needs a mental health day. >> i want my republican colleagues to give me one thing, one that i could go campaign on and say we did. one. >> members have been here for ten weeks. this place is a pressure cooker. >> now republican congressman kelly armstrong summed it up to politico this way, the house gop is the same clown car with a different driver. burgess everett joins us in the discussion. you walk around the capitol with me all day. and what is fascinating, you look at the different caucuses and within congress, house gop and senate gop, they tend to listen to their leadership, every once in a while they may break ranks or catch their leadership by surprise, but in the house republican conference it is been completely every person for themselves. there is no team environment right now and that is what prompts concerns about whether they could get anything done and keep control of the house. >> yeah, and think what is interesting is the holidays are saved. we're not working in the capitol right before thanksgiving or for christmas. >> all of our families are very happy about that. >> they are. but everyone at the table should be worried about what is coming in january and february, because the solution to this most recent shutdown fight doesn't solve any of that. it just kicks the can and makes it more complicated. there is two funding deadlines in january and february and what is can pass the party and those dynamics doesn't change, no matter who is speaker at this point. >> and the new speaker was forced to yank three spending bills through the house. those got pushed to the side. you mentioned the cliffs that were set up. and then there are just these huge issues, israel, and ukraine aid and how do you deal with that. there is now an effort to try to get a deal on immigration policy, tighten immigration policy in order to get ukraine passed, republicans are insisting on that. and there are sinai pthis serio warnings if mike johnson decides to move ahead on ukraine that that could cost him potentially his speakership. >> it is extremely concerning to me an it is a big disappointment. this is not what we should have been doing. >> that is like strike one and two. and the swamp won an the speaker needs to know that. >> what is strike three. >> not moving actual border security and then trying to claim that you did. >> that is a real serious threat from chip roy. not moving border security and approving ukraine aid. that has to be causing sinai peninsula significant concerns about whether this could get done. >> in the latest deal, which again, like burgess said, only gets you until mid-january early february, there is nothing done for israel or ukraine and the republicans have made it clear they're not going to do anything unless there is significant border restrictions added to the bill. now the biden administration has said it is open to additional funding for the border. and potentially some additional policy on the border. but their idea and the republican idea of that is very, very different. chip roy sponsored the bill. it is bringing back most of the trump era immigration policies. it is very restrictive changes on the border that democrats and president biden will never be able to embrace. >> what is a deal that could unlock ukraine aid and that is a huge question. but what is interesting about mike johnson, we have some clues about how he would run the house since his very brief ten you're. he moved forward with the israel aid package that had cuts to the irs and cut the deal on d government spending and angered right but he made the members happy on the far right about his decision to release surveillance footage, january 6 surveillance footage. he said this is in the name of transparency. i want you to look at how he explains this decision to release this internal footage about the january 6. he said the american people could always be trusted to evaluate information and make their own judgments an decisions. when bureaucrats and partisan activists advance a narrative it erodes trust in her institutions. we must restore that trust. what do you make the decision to release the tapes and the statement, he's not saying january 6 was a terrible day in our democracy and it should never happen again. he said he's concerned about the narrative that has been advanced about january 6. >> well, as you say, he clearly is trying to placate the right and give them, you know, apiece them with various promises that he's made. this is a promise that he made to matt gaetz and others that he would release these tapes in the name of accountability and transparency. but i think the question is, will that be enough in because it is very similar to the ken mccarthy playbook. trying to give what they want and at the same time keeping the government open with democratic votes and tacitly admitting that the approach that they would like to see taken of severe cuts to government spending and passing appropriations bills is not viable and there is no situation really that we could see where it could be viable. so, you know, he has used up his political capital at this point. this honeymoon and wanting to give the new guy that came in with a steep learning consecurve, want to give him some space to feel it out and that is going to be over and it is going to be a difficult january and february. >> and you talk to senate republicans, have alarmed have they been in watching all of the c chaos on the other side of the trial and this impacting next year. >> they wanted to see the government funded into december. their okay with doing a big year end deal to get the government funded. that is not what happened and i think speaker johnson exceeded expectations because there are some senate republicans who didn't think he could do this government funding, this ladders cr and seen in recent years. it is not hard to get a handful of the senate republicans keyed up about how the house republicans are acting and making their lives a lot more difficult. >> and the white house, they must be loving this. biden's numbers have obviously are not good, but at least we're not those guys. >> me like drawing the contrast and point at trepublicans that are starting to fight each other, physically in some cases. and i'm 81 but i'm a steady hand and could keep the government open and keep the government running steadily and republicans including donald trump will take us to a position of chaos. at the same time the biden administration wants to get things done through congress. they have two wars and other things that they want to get done and they don't want to have a government shutdown. while they relish with the idea of the contrast, they need to govern and fund the wars in ukraine and in israel and make sure that all of the various legislative priorities get passed. it is a tough role in taking advantage and trying to get policy through. >> an the challenge is kicking this down the road in an election year and campaigning an the politics and the primaries and everything will get for difficult to you could believe it. any exclusive with the man in charge in holding on to the dedemocrat's major t thin major in t the senate.e. while republicans are cleaning up a mess in the house, over in the senate, things are looking brighter for the gop. democrats face an uphill battle to defend their majority. democrats face election challenges in montana and ohio. and major fights in a handful of purple states too, including nevada, arizona, wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. and it all got much harder with joe manchin announcement he would not run again in west virginia. this morning i spoke with gary peters in charge of holding on to the party majority. he's trying to defy the odds. >> it seems without manchin, west virginia is off the map. >> west virginia have a very tough state. joe manchin has the ability to win there because of his long career and the brand that he built but we're focused on other states that have those kind of incumbents and those places like minnesota and ohio that are clearly very challenging also have senate who have problems they could deliver for both montana and for ohio and i'm confident that they're going to be able to win because of that distinctive brand. >> how should they advise themselves? >> they have to run as senator from that state. people want someone who will represent montana in washington. they want folks who will represent ohio. so it is important to talk about what you have done and your time in the senate and what your vision is for the future. >> and here is one of those vulnerable democrats bob casey told me about running with biden at the top of the ticket. >> is he a vulnerability at all? does he drag you down or -. >> no. >> you don't think so. >> a lot of the democrats in the swing states will have to run ahead of the president. >> i'm going to win. i don't care what the level is. >> gary peters, you talk to, too. and he's trying to replication to some extent what happened in the last cycle. it was a good map for the republicans not as good as this map. but abortion became an issue, and bad republican primaries helped them and the difference is that this is a presidential election year and biden is at the top of the ticket and there is some red state democrats. >> and see someone like jon tester winning alongside barack obama in a state like montana and those 12 years have increases or decreases. it is gone down. people are not splitting the ticket as much. susan collins is last example of winning from a state that the presidential nominee did not win. so you have two senators from red states and they have a proven tack records and raising a ton of money and they have big personalities. will that be enough to out weigh a 15 point drag in montana and maybe eight points in ohio. this is a huge test of whether voters are just voting straight ticket down the line in the presidential elections. >> and i asked tester, and he said, we haven't had a popular democratic president since lbj. what is interesting is that peters thinking there is a possibility for pickup opport opportunities, in florida and texas. ted cruz and rick scott and he believes there is a chance because of their unpopularity. >> you think that rick scott and ted cruz are vulnerable. >> if you look at two incumbents, their polling numbers are very weak. they're not strong if their state. we're going to have very strong challenger coming out of the primaries in those two states. and we'll be able to raise resources. certainly donors around the country have very strong opinions about those two individuals. >> democratic donors want to take out two those. but the question is how will they respond. this is what rick scott said. >> they seem to think you could be a pick up opportunity for them. >> i wouldn't want to run against me. >> i wouldn't want to run against me. and florida is tending republican and texas is texas. >> it tells you what a steep map is for the democrats, that those are those pickup opportunities and they are very, very long shots for the democrats. and the other thing that they may not have to look forward to this year, is those messy republican primaries. that created so much opportunities in the last cycle. rick scott was running the republican senate campaigns last cycle. and notably did not get involved and let those messy primaries play out. very different strategy for the republicans this time with steve davidson in charge, much more aggressive about narrowing field and getting the most electable candidate and that could make a big difference and take opportunities offer the board. >> we'll see how that plays out. arizona is an interesting state as well. it is very complicated. there are two candidates that democrats and are pushing but what will kyrsten sinema do. and i doesed peters about that, he said let's see what decision they might make. right now we haven't decided to endorse anybody. but steve daines told me he's the chairman of the republican campaign and cinema does not have a path to win but she's presenting a challenge for both sides. >> but this is a classic kyrsten sinema, and she keeps everyone guessing and no one could figure out what her path or her maneuver are going to be. the politics in that state are very complicated. it is a very difficult and complicated thing for both parties. and there is a case though, i think for democrats that if she were to stay in the race, that could actually help their chances of keeping that seat. of course she's an independent now. but she caucuses with the democrats. and there would be some of the democrats think a much better chance of gallego being elected because she's may poll more conservatives away from kari lake. >> and does she run again? sinema? >> it doesn't feel like this if the polls don't show a path for her. >> thank you, panel. up next, for the first year in office he's become a larger than life character around the senate and not just talking about his height. a look at pennsylvania's john fetterman, next. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) get exclusive offers on select new volvo models. contact your volvo retailer to learn more. john fetterman began in congress and still recovering from stroke he suffered in the heat of the campaign season limiting his ability to speak. then the senator was at rawalte reed medical center and checked himself in for clinical depression. he's back and not afraid to share what's on mhis mind. the democrat has been quite outspoken and about the hoodies he wears around the capitol. >> i think that is not the person that's made of how they dress, too. you're still willing to speak to me and i'm in a hoodie and you're in a suit. if you would have showed up dressed like spider-man i would still have spoken to you. i'm delighted to do that. >> he called to expel senator bob menendez, he said this about the indicted new jersey democrat. >> i saw a polling about his approval. he's less popular than cold sores. so my point it's, like, we really need to expel him. >> he even took a jab at democratic congressman dean philips who recently announced his primary challenge to president biden and used to be the chairman of a popular gelato company. >> one thing i can say about my colleague in congress is that, you know, he made great gelato. i was buying that stuff for my wife for years, and i had no idea for years. other than that, he should stay in congress and running, except if you're donald trump he probably loves him. >> this week fetterman pulled me aside to talk briefly about republican mark wayne mullins threatening a fist fight with a witness at a hearing. >> you want to do it now? >> i'd love to do it right now. >> stand your butt up now. >> you stand your butt up. >> stop it. no, no, sit down. you're a united states senator. >> the democrat was surprised that there had not been as much outrage in the senate for his colleagues over mullins' actions as there was over him wearing a hoodie in the capitol. it seemed quite odd. that's it for "inside politics sunday qwest ". up next, "state of the union" with jake tapper and dana bash and jajake has an interview wit governor ron desantis. see you next time.