Transcripts For CNNW Election 20240702 : comparemela.com

abortion, about which party gets your vote on policy. but there are also some new polls that at the same time hammer home the deep, deep alienation with the current president of the united states. you're watching cnn's special live coverage, election night in america. i'm abby phillip in washington. and i'm laura coates. here in new york. i'm abby. if you're a democratic consultant, this should be a good night. cnn projects that kentucky's democratic governor is going to win against a rising republican star in a state donald trump carried by 26 points. now voters in red ohio approve abortion is still a very powerful motivator. tonight, cnn projects they said yes to enshrining abortion access in their constitution. and yet new cnn poll numbers confirm just how high a hurdle president biden faces with voters heading into 2024. talking about young voters, independents, black voters, latino voters. that's really the core of the biden coalition. and one year out from the presidential contest, it looks very, very unstable. let's get right to john berman at the magic wall. john, we what a night. walk us through already the big headline out of kentucky and what we're still waiting to hear for a in mississippi. >> you got it. >> so in kentucky, cnn has projected that the incumbent democratic governor, andy beshear, will win reelection. and he has overperformed joe biden everywhere in this state. >> remember, joe biden won only two counties for president in 2020. >> he won here in jefferson county, where louisville is. and he won where lexington is right there, fayette county. andy beshear, he swept me many more counties than joe biden did in overperformed. biden everywhere and overperformed his own performance from four years ago, practically everywhere as well. all these states that are colored in red and blue, andy beshear is doing better than he did four years ago. so you can see in democratic counties like jefferson county, where louisville is, andy beshear got 70% of the vote this time four years ago, he got 67. so we stretched that. but he also was able to do that in other counties as well. if you look here in davis county, owensboro is andy beshear won that county with 51% of the vote. we're projecting right now. four years ago, it was actually a republican county. so you can see andy beshear able to really extend his lead. and one other thing i want to point out, because we're going to be looking at this all night long and frankly, all year long, suburban counties, which could be a battleground. there aren't tons in kentucky, but there are some. and you can see here that actually let me put it on make sure we're looking at this election in 2023. you can see that andy beshear won most most of the suburban counties here, including flipping this one from four years ago. so a good night for the democrats in kentucky, a good night in places where they wanted to do well. let's look at mississippi right now, where we have not currently projected a winner. the incumbent republican , tate reeves, is leading by ten points right now with 71% in. the reason we have not projected this race is because of hinds county right here. the most populous county in the state is where jackson is. you can see just 13% of the vote in right now. so a lot of vote left to be counted there. how much vote? it's hard to say. four years ago, if you look at hinds county, you can see the democrat four years ago won by 40,000 votes, but there were just 70. i say just there were 70,000 votes total in that county. if you look right now at mississippi, you can see tate reeves is leading by 65,000 votes. so would there be enough votes in in hinds county alone to make the difference? probably not. but we want to wait and see. we want to count those votes. there are also some counties where there's almost no vote in oh, actually, the vote just did come in here. washington county, we were looking at there was none of this before this all just came in. right now. and you can see brandon pressley there, the democrat who is, by the way, second cousins with elvis presley. he is leading in that county by some 4000 votes. let me look at tupelo, mississippi, the birthplace of elvis presley, lee county. brandon presley is actually trailing in the birthplace of his second cousin, elvis presley. >> laura, with all the hype and the movies, too, that's surprising for a lot of reasons. but is so helpful to think about what happened then and now. >> but what about virginia? >> what's happening? that's a very big barometer. >> so, virginia, we have a different type of data coming in. i can't show you county by county breakdowns, but i can tell you where democrats and republicans are leading both chambers in the assembly are up. every seat is up in the senate right now. democrats are leading in 21 of the senate seats. they would need 21 to control. so they are on position if things hold to control the senate they are currently in control of the state senate in virginia. so this would be a hold for them there. we can look at the house of delegates now as well. the house of delegates. if i pull that up right there, you see the democrats are leading. this number is actually a little outdated. i understand. now democrats are leading in 53 of the house of delegates races. they would need 51 to control if this holds, this would be a flip . laura and democrats would then control both chambers of the virginia assembly and this would be a setback for the incumbent republican governor, glenn youngkin, who wanted what they're calling the trifecta. he wanted to control the governor's mansion and have republicans control both chambers. if things stand right now, he would control the mansion, but neither chamber in the assembly, the trifecta. >> some say he wants the presidency. it's a very crucial moment to be able to flip the entire legislature branch in virginia for other reasons. but i want to go back. is already in real time right now. go back to hines county is tightening up there already. >> all right. let's look back at hines county. you have information for me here, hines county right here that is where jackson is, 34% of the vote in. all right. it's not tight and he's actually widening the lead in hinds county with 34% in. you could see brandon presley has 87% of the vote. he's got a 20,000 vote lead there. that is a big lead. and it's bigger, i think, than the democrat had four years ago. so he's overperforming the democrat from four years ago. he needs to probably do even better than that. so right now, a wide lead in hinds county, which is bringing him closer, close, closer to tate reeves is still a 53, one thing i do want to point out, there is a new law in mississippi that if neither of the candidates gets above 50, 50% plus one, there will be a runoff. so as you're watching the vote come in from hines county and there's still a lot of vote to come in from there, maybe that's what everyone should be watching for if it's enough to drive tate reeves below 50% statewide. >> we'll keep watching what's going on here. take me to ohio right now because the abortion issue really prominent. >> all right, ohio, this is there was a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. cnn has projected that will win abortion. what rights have won in ohio, which i will remind people in the vote for president in 2020, donald trump won by about 8. right now, if you're looking at the abortion initiative, abortion rights is leading by about 11. and i can show you the counties that trump won in ohio. right now, every county that has a color here, green or orange, is a county that trump won. so you can see all the green counties here where abortion rights is leading or trump actually won. so you could think of that if you're a democrat, an abortion rights supporting democrat, you can think of that as a flip abortion rights flipped in every county here that's green. that's an interesting way to look at it. one other way to look at this is in, again, suburban counties. this is something that we're going to be talking about for a long time here. these are the counties we consider suburban counties. you can see green, an abortion rights leading in most of the suburban counties here. and if i just circle these areas here to show you again roughly where the suburban counties are, and i remind you where donald trump won four years, you can see, yes, there are a few blue counties, but a lot of red. a lot of red suburban counties is flipped in essence, to abortion rights. and so democrats looking at this think, hey, you know what, abortion rights, this could be a potent issue, a potent enough issue to turn some counties that have been voting republican really important point. >> and we'll talk to our strategists and also a lot of people talking about what will happen based on these figures in other states. john, standby. we'll come back to you a lot throughout the night. abby, laura, so much there in those maps. i want to bring it into the studio here with my panel, astead herndon, i'll start with you. the state of kentucky, this is going to become sort of like the golden golden boy halo on andy beshear. that very popular democratic governor winning in a ruby red state at a second term. is this potentially a road map for any other democrat who is not named beshear, which is a pretty famous last name in that state? >> i mean, it's important to note the local factors that really matter. there of course, he has that kind of local brand in the state. but i do think it provides somewhat of a road map for democrats that they're going to take. if your candidates who are not joe biden try to refocus these issues on protecting abortion rights, on focusing on kind of republican attempts to pull the abortion issue kind of out of where public opinion is. and you have seen democrats really hammer home on that message. and it played really to beshear strengths. and so i think that that becomes somewhat of a model here for kind of democrats to play off nationally. but what we really see, i think, across the board is a split between the health of maybe the democratic party broadly and what joe biden can do kind of himself. if we're looking ahead to 2024. and so i think that there are signs for democrats down ballot that shows that their voters are still really engaged, that they really understand the stakes of the election, like things like abortion are really still driving voters in a way that really gives them a signs. but there's also really clear evidence, i think, that we have coming from cnn's polling times, polling others every week that that may not translate individually to joe biden because he has the unique issue of his age. >> so who wants to help me make sense of this, joe biden, in this polling, it's really dismal. some some numbers that are if you're a democrat, black voters, young voters, that would be really scary if this were november 20th, 24. but at the same time, democrats are having a good night. they're having a good night in ohio. they're having a good night in kentucky, kentucky, and they're having a good night potentially in virginia. how does this make sense? >> well, i think that part of this is that i think the american electorate has not yet come to terms with the fact that it is a there is a likely chance that we are going to have a joe biden versus donald trump election again, i think that you've seen the numbers when it's joe biden versus a generic democrat, it who would obviously be perfect and wonderful or when it's donald trump versus a generic republican. >> but that's not what we're going to get. >> i think that you're seeing again and again that the american people want someone else. they're just not likely to get it. >> you're also seeing that republicans lines once again have decided that abortion is going to be an issue. they can win on. we heard from the youngkin team saying that 15 weeks is something everyone can agree on. they kept talking about how rational and a very centrist approach to take. and i think that americans who have been around for longer than 10s are aware that when they say 15 weeks, they don't mean it. we have heard again and again and again and again that republics want to limit abortion rights and americans were listening to that and said no. they said no. in ohio. they said no in virginia. and they said no in kentucky. and let's also keep in mind that ohio just legalized recreational marijuana. like these are issues that i think attract young people. they attract people who are not traditional democratic voters. but i think it's important to separate those issues from the fact that many americans are saying, i don't want to have another trump biden election. >> i mean, what does this mean for joe biden in your view? >> yeah, i mean, if you take a look at some other polls that have come out showing this hypothetical generic republican or generic democrat against either trump or biden, you see exactly the dynamic that jane described. >> and you see really big swings, particularly with groups like young voters. the new york times siena poll that came out over the weekend showed that joe biden against donald trump was running close to even with young voters. and as someone who studied young voters for a long time, i was like, hang on, everybody. young voters are not republican. >> and but the cnn poll had very similar results. right. >> and then when you look at it against joe biden, against sort of or pardon me, donald trump against generic democrats, suddenly the numbers snap back into place. it is not that young people have all swung to the right. it is that they uniquely look at joe biden and go, this can't possibly be the guy we're going to vote for. right and so i think democrats have some really hard choices to make in the coming weeks ahead. >> i was just talking, mark preston, to chris christie in the last hour, and he was very eager to say, when you look at the kentucky race, daniel cameron, who was endorsed by donald trump, who hugged donald trump, who coddled some of the election, lies, even all of that he lost and trump was just saying that his endorsement just a couple of days ago, his endorsement was going to be the surge that pushed cameron over the top. and that did not happen. >> well, remember when donald trump, after the election, talked about how great his percentage was on his endorsements? >> but then if you looked at the endorsements that many of those people that were running didn't even have challengers. >> right. so he inflated his numbers. >> i think when you look in kentucky, i think indiana, cameron had to endorse donald trump. even if you look at the cnn poll right now, donald trump has a 76% approval rating nationally. that's with every one of these court cases going on against him. that's with all the video footage we have of january 6th. right now, donald trump is a force in the republican party that we have never seen, certainly in our lifetime. the question is, though, for chris christie, who i think, you know, ten years ago, chris christie is like the atypical republican candidate that you want out on the stump. ten years later, you look at these numbers, you look at the cnn poll, chris christie's approval rating amongst republicans is over 50. now, i don't think that's fair to chris christie, but i think it does go to show you where the republican party is right now. >> oh, yeah, absolutely. and you know what, andy beshear outperformed joe biden, but he also outperformed andy beshear. really, really blowing himself his last performance out of the water, which shows growth even among probably some trump voters in the state of kentucky, which should be something of a wake up call for republicans. everyone, stick around. laura, you've got a lot more to discuss over there. we really do, abby, because this is a huge night in america. i want to bring in my panel of cnn political commentators. we got ashley allison. we have alice stewart. we have jeff duncan and jamal simmons, all experts in their own right. >> i want to really lean in to what's going on in ohio, though, because we know in normally in any election, roe v wade is almost always on the ballot. >> with the dobbs decision. no more. >> and yet abortion is still on the ballot. you're from ohio. i want to start with you, ms. ohioan and ask you, what do you make of this? >> are you surprised that they are coming out this way? >> i'm not. >> and one of the reasons why i think ohio continues to trend more and more red is because the investment in the democratic party has continued to decrease and decrease after obama won in 2012. >> ohio is a very diverse state. it has appalachia, it has the steel mills of toledo and youngstown, ohio, where i'm from. it has cincinnati, where the airport is actually in kentucky, and then it has columbus, which is a booming metropolitan area with ohio state, the second largest university in the country. so when you have a state like that, the diverse city allows for a complexity, complexity of the way the way the voter shows up. >> in august, there was a tell me that in a special election in august of all years of 2023, ohio voters still showed up and said, we don't want you to change, change the way you get a constitutional amendment in the state. and because of that, then they showed up again and said, and now we want to enshrine abortion into to our constitution. and so, again, i think it's a tell that republicans are a bit out of touch with this issue and it will be a forecast on how sherrod brown can actually win next year in the senate race, as joe biden probably won't win ohio but can share it. brown hold his senate seat in 2024. that's a good point, though there's no doubt that republicans are misfiring on on abortion. >> right. and when you when you lose a state about issue like this, in a state like ohio and others, then obviously something's misfiring. >> i think the fundamental flaw that republicans have taken into this conversation around abortion is it's become a primary issue. >> and so everybody tries to outright them each other in a primary process. i watched it play out in georgia in the illustrious herschel walker senate debacle to be nice. >> i watched a stage full of candidates, republican candidates just go one after after another after another after another, saying that they didn't believe in any exceptions . >> and i can't imagine that makes any sense in any shape or any corner of the country to stand up there and say that you don't believe in any exceptions, even if you're in a pro-life stance. i think the conversation has got to shift. and it's going to take a long time to do this. but look, almost every american is pro-life and pro-choice. it's just about where on the calendar does that come in? and we need to shape that argument in a way that's empathetic and compassionate, not bombastic and demonizing. the other side on this, some said roe v wade did that with the test, but that obviously is gone. >> but what do you think? >> well, when you have a state like ohio, a very red state coming forth with with this position on the abortion issue, it should be a wake up call excuse me, to the pro-life community. it's, you know 55% for restoring the abortion provisions into the state constitution to 44. that's a real wake up call to the pro-life community. and i think moving forward, having been someone that has fought really hard for many years to overturn roe v wade, the issue was to put this back in the hands of the states. it's been back in the hands of the states on ballot initiative after ballot initiative since roe v wade was overturned. and every single time voters in the states voted to protect abortion rights. so as a the pro-life community needs to look at this. to jeff's point, let's reshape the conversation this needs to be more about limits on abortion. where do we agree on let's make sure we have protections for rape, incest and life of the mother and look at reasonable limits on abortion. 15 weeks. i think most people would agree is reasonable and have the conversation from there, because i can guarantee you, as i'm sure ashley will agree, democrats will use this as an issue in the 2024 election. more states will probably put this on the ballot because it certainly turns out voters. but republicans need to shift the conversation even more to limits as opposed to an outright ban. >> youngkin thinks that way, but i ask you, jamal, because when you're talking, it feels a little bit like moving the goalpost. >> you say you want the people to decide in a state, well, if time after time they've made the decision and then you say, well, actually, i guess i'm not framing this correctly for you, does it undermine the voters intelligence and are they on to it? >> i think the voters have just decided whatever the issue is, they're not really for taking away a woman's right to make the choices about her own body when it comes to her reproductive choices. >> so, you know, i remember last year when i was at the white house last year, and i remember everyone thought that election was going to be about the economy. there was a new york times poll in october 17th. i know we're all talking about it, times poll from the other day, october 17th, that said, the economy was the most important issue is going to be more important than abortion and republic lions were headed to a big victory. it's not what happened. right. and i think the same thing we're seeing now, ever since we had those pink pussycat hat marches right after donald trump won his election, we have seen the women of america stand up again and again and again. when it's time to talk about maga and say, no thank you, i was watching one race in virginia, particularly russert, perry, who is a state senator running for state senate in virginia, district 30, won that race was all about crime. she was being tagged as a soft on crime, and then she was tagging her opponent about being an abortion extremist. she's won that race with 53% of the vote. about right. we are seeing this again and again. the last thing i'll say on this, i was talking to a pollster friend earlier today. he said, when it comes to young voters, which democrats are very concerned about right now, when it comes to young voters, it's donald trump and abortion are the one two punch, right when young voters realize donald trump is the one who's on the ballot and then they think about the supreme court and what it did with abortion. it moves young voters back to the camp of joe biden and kamala harris. i think that we all need to simmer down a little bit and let this election play out. i think that was loaded. >> i think there might be a poll you're referencing about running down. something tells me there was something recently that happened that made the biden camp a little bit nervous. 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populous county in the state you can see, has just 34% reporting. and in this county, it is the most democratic county in the state as well. you can see brandon pressley, the democrat, is leading by 20,000 votes, nearly. 75. so there's a lot more vote to come in there. how much vote? it's a little hard to tell what the ultimate total will be. but if you look at four years ago in hinds county, the democrat won there with 77% of the vote. there were about 70,000 votes total in that county. so project that out again to now 70,000 votes. can they expect 40,000 or more votes? they're under earlier, but it might be enough to narrow this lead. the tate reeves has even more in in mississippi. if neither candidate gets above 50% of the vote, 50% plus one, they there will be a runoff. so that's something we're watching very closely now as these votes come in. and there are still a few other counties, i'll go down to 75. every thing you see here colored in is a county that's got less than 75% of the vote in hines county, the most populous. but there are all a lot of other blue counties there as well. so still counting, abby. >> yeah, still. still counting. but just to underscore the question here is whether one of these candidates will get above 50. otherwise we could still be looking at a runoff in this race john. berman stand by for us. we are still, as you can see here, counting these votes. we have much more to come as we watch these results come in from virginia, also from mississippi. more of cnn's special live coverage coming up next. >> tomorrow, after the republican presidential debate, get critical context from the sharpest political team on television. >> anderson cooper and dana bash, host the republican presidential debate. post-debate analysis live tomorrow at ten. it's time to vote for cnn hero of the year. >> support the extraordinary people who are making a difference in our world. cast ten votes a day, every day at cnnhereroes.com. >> t the chase i ink 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are still not ready to make a projection in there. let's go back to john berman to break it all down. john walk us through these numbers as. >> yeah, let's take a look at this right now at this moment. there are 21 democrats leading in senate races in virginia. cnn projects that they will control the state senate. that's a hold for them. they currently control the senate. but this is significant because the incumbent republican governor, glenn youngkin, he's laid a lot on the line. he's gone all in to try to get control of both chambers, the senate and the house of delegates, to give him the trifecta so we can have the governor's mansion, the senate and the house of delegates. he's not going to get there. cnn projects that democrats will control the senate. and if you look at the house of delegates right now, where things stand, democrats are leading there as well. so it's possible all this night could get even worse. as for glenn youngkin, one of the issues that democrats have tried to lean into in this election, abortion rights, something that we saw in ohio, we saw in kentucky. we're seeing it at play here in virginia as well. democrats will likely credit their mentioning in campaigning on abortion rights as something that helped them maintain win. now control of the state senate and has them leading in the house of delegates and dealing a setback to a popular republican governor, laura. john berman so important to remember, this was a governor who has only has one term and he wanted to have a lot under his belt. >> maybe he wants to run for the presidency in the future. abby, laura, we've got the perfect person potentially to talk to about all of those developments. >> joining me now is the former republican governor of the commonwealth of virginia, bob mcdonnell. governor thanks for joining us. hi there. so look very significant, consequential day for your state and for your governor, for glenn youngkin really put it all on the line here, saying to voters, give me full control of this government and i can give you a conservative agenda. did voters tonight reject that agenda. for >> well, looks like the republicans are going to pick up one seat in the senate, but not enough to take the majority. >> so the democrats will control there. and it's i think it's too close to call right now in the house from everything that i've seen. but you know, a couple of things have really, i guess, surprised me, glenn. glenn youngkin did a terrific job getting republicans to believe in early voting. and so the ballot numbers early on for the republicans were terrific. but the margin on on election day seemed to be about, you know, be about even, which it wasn't. republicans had one election day in in these past couple of years . but but the second thing is, you know youngkin is a popular governor. president biden is way underwater here in virginia. and on things like crime and major investments in education and taxes, where there were major tax cuts for the people, all of which were popular initiatives, it's surprising that glenn youngkin's efforts and his popularity didn't carry didn't carry more weight today. and i think the obvious issue was, was abortion. and in the wake of the dobbs decision, decision is going back now to the states under the federalist principles. it looks like that issue was turned out to be a winning issue for the for the democrat party. their messaging of calling it a ban after 15 weeks or even before is the way they message it. even though the republicans had indicated democrats had no limits up to birth, it seemed like the messaging went in favor of the democratic party. and for suburban women, that's where the republicans lost lost today. >> was that a mistake for youngkin to make this election cycle in virginia, about a 15 week abortion ban given what we now are seeing in all of these different states? the a lot of american voters, when this is put to them, they reject that. was it a mistake for him to do that? >> well, see, i don't think he really made it about that. >> he he made the republican position pretty clear early on that this was about a 15 week limit. and after that, exceptions for rape, incest, life in the mother. but said that, look, we believe in parental notification parental consent, informed consent, a ban on partial birth abortion, all of which are very much supported by 70% plus of virginia. and so and so the argument was that the democrats were the ones that were radical with favoring abortion up until the moment of birth, which they admitted in several of the legislation. >> so i'm surprised that that contrast, abby didn't didn't carry the day with some more suburban women because that's more in tune with where they they say that they actually where they actually are. >> and so focusing on crime and education and tax cuts and so forth as a contrast to the democratic position, i thought would win. i look at my election in 2009. i got my opponent spent most of his time talking about my position on abortion, and i said, yeah, i'm pro-life, but look, i'm going to fix your roads. i'm going to improve your schools. i'm going to do a make carry the day on some of the kitchen table issues and that that won by 18 points. so i'm surprised we're we're so purple now in northern virginia that we didn't win. >> look, i just real quick, i mean, does this complicate glenn youngkin's argument potentially if he wants to have a national platform that he couldn't sell this message even in his home state, a purple state like virginia? >> i think that's too early to say that. he's still a very popular governor, you know, high 50s and in a purple state. i think that says a lot about his ability to lead. we're going to end up with not having a republican majority, which is what what he sort of after. but the ultimate change in both houses is going to be essentially nominal 1 or 1 or two votes. but i, i, i think that, you know, with a with his popularity and biden's unpopularity, i just thought we'd have a different outcome. >> yeah, it is very interesting. interesting. also that that this is coming as a surprise to you to governor bob mcdonnell. thank you for joining us. good timing to have you on tonight. and we are still awaiting some important results to come in tonight from virginia. we're still waiting to find out about the house of delegates there and also from the state of mississippi. and how worried should the president's campaign be about these new and troubling cnn poll numbers? we'll have much more on cnn's special live coverage just ahead. >> being a journalist is the best job in the world. thank you so much for doing this, sir. appreciate it. i'm happy to. >> i think we have a big crisis of democracy. >> do you think the united states is headed for a recession? >> i think that that is where jerome powell is trying to drive it. >> my goal is to be a voice for people watching as ukraine going to win this war. why do you think hamas has been releasing hostages? >> because they're under immense pressure asking challenging questions of the folks who run the world, are you ready? >> the leaead with jakake tapap, cncnn, weekdkdays at fouour. > this is yourur season toto, toto raise a t toast and g gathr totogether too wrarap up t the d round upup t the gang t to helpt you reready. >> y your a aspen dentatal teams celebrbrating 25 y years of affordabable care with an e epic anniniversary s savings e eventt now, n new patieients without insurance e get a freeee fulullm anand x rays.s. plus, eveveryonn get 20% ofoff their treatmentntn . but hurrrry, becausese while e seasason won't lasast, the memes yoyou make togetether will.l. an dedental bookk todayay i was s k unresosolved depreression sympms wewere in my w way. >> i i needed momore from m my antidedepressant vraylylar helpd give itt a liftt i it adding v r to an n antidepresessant is clinicically proveven to hehelp relieveve overalll depreression sysymptoms better r 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we're seeing tonight? >> right. we keep concentrating on these individual states. let me give you a reason why perhaps they should care. and that is that the outcome of the virginia senate is actually a pretty good bellwether of what happens in the next year's presidential race. so if, you know, you look at 2019, for example, democrats won there. joe biden won here in 2020, 2015, the gop won. then donald trump won. 2011 was a tie. obama won. but then go back to 2008. the democrats won 2000. you can see that 2008 obama won 2007. the democrats won. so the fact is, in three of the last four election cycles, who wins? the virginia senate has told us who's going to win the next year's presidential race. and that to me, is a reason why, even if you don't live in the state of virginia and you don't even care about the state politics, you could actually care if you care about national politics because there's a tell tale sign. >> well, there's also kentucky, though. i heard that was a bellwether. they won in the same. >> yes. and in fact, kentucky is actually a better bellwether for democrats win in 2019. biden wins in 2020, 2016. trump won a year before the gop won 2011. it was it was andy beshear, his father, steve beshear, who won in 2011 and 2007, forecasts that obama wins in both 2012 and 2008. and i think this ultimately comes down to the question. i think a lot of us are going to be asking over the next 24 to 48 hours. the polls are saying one thing, the results, it's when people are actually voting are saying something entirely different. and based upon recent history, hey, democrats really have to like what happened in kentucky and they really have to like as well what happened in virginia, because the next year, if history holds right, maybe joe biden is, in fact, going to win reelection, even though the polls perhaps at this point aren't too favorable for him. >> the real question is what happens if virginia and kentucky are at odds and then which one is 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breaking news. we are getting word now that the democrat challenger to the republican in mississippi, the incumbent, has just called to concede. john berman, what can you tell us about that? all right. >> right now, you can see that the incumbent republican governor, tate reeves, leads by about 49,000 votes by about 6, 82% of the vote is in right now. cnn still hasn't projected a leader, but you're reporting now that brandon pressley, the democrat, has called to concede. one of the reasons we have not projected a winner yet is because hinds county, which is the most populous county in the state, home to jackson, mississippi, has only about 59% reporting voting. and you can see brandon pressley has a huge lead there. he's leading by 30,000 votes. so he could pick up a chunk more votes there. a lot more votes in hinds county. but brandon pressley apparently doesn't believe it will be enough to close the margin. what's interesting is in mississippi, if you do not get above 50, if neither candidate gets above 50, there would be a runoff in the state. and apparently, again, brandon pressley might be doing the math in his head thinking that even though hinds county only has 59, even if he does pick up several thousand more votes there and close that margin, it would not be enough to get tate reeves below low 50. so perhaps that what is what is fueling that call that you're reporting on right now, abby? yeah exactly. >> i mean, these candidates are doing more than just math in their head. they're looking at their own data. they're looking at their precinct data and seeing things that we may not have yet based on the official data. but that's why you might see a concession call before this is officially called by news organizations like cnn. we were just showing you just moments ago, both brandon pressley and tate reeves at the podiums at their respective campaign events. tonight, a big race that was pretty closely watched by a lot of people, in part because this is a state, mississippi, where you have an incumbent governor in tate reeves, who was embroiled in a huge scandal. it looked like an opportune city potentially for democrats to pick up that seat in a state that has the largest, most nonwhite population of any state in the south. it could be a particularly interesting moment, but it was not to be for democrats. john berman, stand by for us. we'll continue to come back to you as we continue to wait on those results. i want to bring in our panel now a mark preston on this. a little bit of a different narrative from what we've been seeing tonight, but not a huge surprise. i mean, mississippi is a deep red state. it would be a highly unusual thing if a democrat were to win there. but in the context of all the other moves that we've seen tonight by voters, this is a disappointment for democrats, a disappointment for democrats. >> but i would say in some ways a win for democrats because you saw energy and focus on a state that democrat party really hasn't paid a whole lot of attention towards. i remember being down there, abby back and i guess it was 2019 and talking to the democratic party chairman at the time had no money, was basically on his own. he was he was a local lawyer just trying to hold things together. and look, there were more republicans registered to vote in mississippi. but again, if you're a democratic party that's at least talking about mississippi, it means that you're doing well elsewhere. so again, a loss for democrats. but it's not like a devastating loss . >> yeah. and look, the results tonight are going to be dissected and dissected by both parties. kristen soltis anderson, if you're looking at this tonight, you're a democrat. you're a republican. what do you realistically take away going into 2024? >> so if you're a democrat, what you're taking away is we're going to run on the issue of abortion, because even with all of these headwinds, even with joe biden not being very popular , even with voters, preferring republicans on the economy and even with voters telling pollsters like me that the economy is their number one issue, it seems as though an issue like abortion is enough of a driver and a turnout machine for democrats that they should lean into it. for republicans, the message needs to be when you don't invest in these races, when you don't pay attention to these races, this is kind of what happens, number one. and number two, donald trump is not the turnout machine kingmaker that you might think he is. even in a state like kentucky, that donald trump won by a large margin. he comes in, he endorses daniel cameron. he's my guy. this guy is not a mitch mcconnell republican. well maybe mitch mcconnell. republicans actually do quite well in kentucky. >> it's donald trump's not the kingmaker, but neither is glenn youngkin, apparently. >> yeah, i think we're seeing a multiple in multiple races. we're seeing that glenn youngkin's efforts to attempt to achieve the trifecta to prove that he can be in performance. only a reasonable republican. let's keep in mind that he's just wearing a vest. that's all that's happening here. but he seems to have not achieved his goals. he's not getting the trifecta. he might lose the house of delegates. we aren't sure yet. but i think that we're seeing that all of the talk about him potentially jumping to the presidential race, all of that should stop now. >> well, we'll see if it we'll see about that. we'll see about that. everyone, stand by for us. we've got a lot more to come this election night in america. democrats are celebrating some big wins in both kentucky and in ohio. and we're watching the results out of virginia. more from cnn special live coverage next. >> the republican presidential debate, post-debate analysis live tomorrow at 10:00. when you're the leader in disaster cleanup and restoration, how do you make like it never even happened happen? >> oh, whoa. yeah. by being prepared for anything. > surff p 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states. i'm abby phillip in washington. and i'm laura coates in new york. >> and you're watching cnn's special live coverage, election night in america. and cnn's projecting two very big and very consequential bulletin board wins for democrats tonight in kentucky. striking the democrats will retain the governor's mansion. andy beshear defeat beating rising republican star daniel cameron. also tonight in ohio, cnn projects the right to an abortion will now be written into that state's constitution. it's evidence that abortion and the issue of abortion has staying power more than a year after the supreme court erased roe versus wade. >> and we are also waiting on some important results out of virginia. let's get right to john berman at the magic wall for us. john this is really, really important right now. we just called the senate in virginia. we're waiting for the house of delegates. what are you seeing there? as democrats and republicans battle it out district by district for control over that legislature? yeah, let's look at virginia right now. >> we don't have the same type of granular data coming in. but what we can tell you right now is we look at the senate. cnn has projected that democrats will maintain control of the senate. they'll have at least 21 seats there, which will give them a majority that in and of itself is a setback for the republican governor, glenn youngkin, who ran hard in this campaign. he wanted to have a republican senate and a republican house of delegates, what they call a trifecta so he can control the entire state government apparatus. he has lost in that endeavor to that has failed. and he put a lot on the line there. and then i could get worse for him, because not only have democrats maintained control in the state senate, but if you look at the house of delegates right now in virginia right now, they are currently leading in 51 of these races. we just got an update in. the democrats are leading in 51 of these races, but 51 is still enough to control the house of delegates as well. and if that holds, that would actually be a flip that would mean it went from republican to democrat in the face of these efforts from the republican governor, glenn youngkin, to get the trifecta in one of the major issues in virginia. and we've seen this in several states tonight, abby, abortion rights, glenn youngkin wanted to limit them. democrats said no. they ran on providing abortion rights and that may have been decisive. >> just one of the many big headlines potentially coming out of tonight. but there's also kentucky, a major governor's race there. what is the big headline out of that state? >> the big headline out of kentucky, let me get to it is that andy beshear won and won big. okay. look at the map here. look at all the blue counties. he overperformed joe biden in kentucky, literally everywhere in every single county in 2020. joe biden won only two counties. this time around, you can see how much more blue there is for andy beshear. and he didn't just overperform joe biden. i think as you noted last hour, abby, he overperformed andy beshear from four years ago. he improved on his margins of victory. i can show you everywhere where beshear overperformed and you can look anywhere. there's a color red or blue here. he did better than he did. four years ago. that is a tremendous improvement. and also, i just want to show you some suburbs here. suburbs are so important in the election tonight and will be into 2024. and you can see right here, not tons of suburbs. almost all of them, or at least the vast majority, andy beshear did really well. that, too, is something that democrats would hope that they can replicate in other races around the country. >> yeah, and there in kentucky, but also in the state of ohio, abortion, as we were just talking about, a huge issue on the minds of voters in this case, on the actual ballot. what did voters decide there? >> this is something that is really glaring. first of all, you can see abortion rights, which was a yes vote on a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion at 50, almost 56% of the vote. just a reminder, in the state of ohio, which you call cherry red, i like the variation from ruby red in the state of ohio. donald trump won with 53% of the vote. he won by eight points. so right now, abortion rights ahead by nearly 11 points. you can see the huge spread there. and i just want to show you that in the counties that donald trump won, every county that's colored in here, green and orange is a county that donald trump won. so all the green counties here are counties where abortion rights prevailed in the balloting last night. and you can see these are trump won counties. now that have voted for abortion rights. abortion rights can be a potent issue even in a trump won county. and you can also look at the suburban counties which i think is also very interesting, suburban counties here. this if you look at this map everywhere in green here, actually everywhere that's colored here is suburban county. but if we circle these i circle the suburban counties up there in the northeast over here and down here. and then look at trump again. you can see a lot of these were areas that trump won. trump won every red county here in the ohio suburbs. yet abortion rights was a potent issue in people voted for abortion rights in those trump counties. again abby, democrats will be looking at this these results, these suburbs, and they will hope to replicate that. this is the sixth state now where abortion rights has been on the ballot and prevailed. >> cd and a really smart observation by by you there, john berman a lot of voters in ohio and in kentucky, you could probably argue in virginia, too, who would have been trump voters probably voted for either a democrat or a democratic leaning. issues in this off year cycle. a lot of consultants on both sides of the aisle taking a close look at that. berman standby for us. we'll check back with you in this hour. laura there is much more to come from the actual results, but so much to digest with your great panel up there. >> let's unpack it, abby, because i've got this great panel with me right now. big picture, this was a heck of a night for democrat that's perhaps maybe unexpected in some areas. but on abortion in particular, is the writing on the wall. >> i've been doing this for the last couple of election cycles. >> i've been had had the fortune a pleasure of sitting in this seat. >> and i feel like a play by play announcer for a terrible baseball team that just keeps losing and losing and losing and not doing anything about it. >> the republicans, you mean? >> absolutely. and not changing direction and it all all things point back to donald trump. >> there's so much chaos throughout the party. we need to reorganize. we need to revamp it. we should not be losing states that we're losing. we should not be losing issues, that we're losing. we've just completely lost our way. and until we purge ourselves of donald trump, often i think we're kind of in the process of throwing them up right. it's going to take time. >> it's disgusting. >> it's hard to watch. but until we get rid of donald trump, we're going to continue to stumble and bumble and lose races and states and issues that we should win. >> it's very visual at midnight. i like that. the acid reflux connotation of all of it. let me ask you, though, when it comes to abortion, is donald trump really to blame? obviously, he was the one to nominate supreme court justices who on the one hand said that they would be very objective and adhere to precedent. and then when it came to roe v wade, did ultimately overturn it. is he really the through line? >> he's the motivating factor because, as you said, he's the one that put the justices on the supreme court that overturned it and put it back in the hands of the states. now it's in the hands of the states. and they're saying, we want to protect abortion. and look, that's something that republicans need to wake up on because democrats, i'm sure, will make this a ballot issue in 2024. and that's going to be a big motivator in democrat voters. i'm looking big picture tonight. also, not just the power of abortion to motivate voter as i'm looking at the power of incumbency. when you look at kentucky governor beshear being the incumbent governor, had the good fortune of being able to work on the economy, being able to work on education, being able to work on issues to his state, but also as the governor, he was there for his people in the tragic mass shooting. he was there for his people during the floods. he was there for his people after the after tornadoes that is invaluable when you do for the people and you're there for them in times of crisis, they will remember that on election day and come out for him. and if you heard his speech tonight, his acceptance speech, he was talking about this is not about right or left. this is about moving forward. and that is very powerful because he has been a very good leader for the people of kentucky. also, as we're looking at mississippi governor reeves did a great job as the has done a great job as the governor, improving education, low unemployment, as well as improving the economy, moving mississippi that is generally in the back of the pack, moving them in the right direction. and his voters look at that as he's done a good job so far. and we're going to reward him by reelecting him. so the power of incumbency really is also on display tonight. >> well, there's also the scandal of allegedly moving welfare funds to those who are wealthy instead, and that that and there's that other movement that happened as well. but the voters essentially said no. but hold on. strategists talk to me here about this, because from what alice is talking about, it sounds like all one must be is essentially the maybe the consoler in chief of the executive head of the state. biden's not doing well in his polls. if that's the reason. >> well, biden's always been the consoler in chief of the country. right? like nobody can feel your pain like joe biden can. and i think it's ultimately a superpower. and i think what we saw in andy beshear tonight is the future of the democratic party. what we saw is somebody who is he's the future of the democratic party. we saw somebody who is willing to stand up and say at a moment of crisis, not just what's wrong, but kind of give a tear to it. right. i remember when one of the storms happened, he talked about walking up and seeing a bike, leaned up against the side of the wall and knowing that a child had lived in that house that was no longer alive and how he had a child who had a bike just like that. and like this guy really tagged in. and i think every candidate that's thinking about running for national office needs to pay attention to the speech he gave tonight and how it is he has conducted himself on the national stage. i don't know if he can run for president. he's a little moderate for the current democratic party, but he is certainly somebody, whether it's him or governor whitmer or gavin newsom or wes moore, there's a crop of governors. shapiro in pennsylvania, there are crop of governors out there in the democratic party who i think in 2028 are going to make it a big, big year, along with, of course, the vice president, maybe sooner. well oh, see, i knew someone was going to go there tonight. >> it was you. i love it. let me ask you. okay. talk about somebody who might have his sights. alison, ashley gave your last name first. ashley allison when it comes to 2028, glenn youngkin in virginia, it's pretty clear some people wanted him to jump in right now. and it's also pretty clear with the one term and a term limited governor in virginia that he had to have some wins. the ability to say the school choice, the parental choice issues. and now add to that i was able to get the republicans in charge. that's not happening for him. is that a distant dream now? >> i don't think it's a distant dream, but here's what i will say. it's interesting to hear both jamal and alice talk about governor beshear. i'm like, oh, wow, he's governor saying which governors are supposed to do it seems like such a foreign concept in politics these days. and i think for mississippi, look, it's hard for dems to win in mississippi. but what i will say is because of that race, it's a tell don't give up on the south dems like we have georgia. this is this is a place, particularly a state like mississippi with such a large black population. when i zoom out, i think, you know, when glenn youngkin won in 2021, everybody was like, oh my god, the dems are going to throw it away in 2022. i think what voters are actually demanding is that they want people who are going to protect their freedoms. and 2022 in the midterms, abortion was on the ballot, but also voters said no to election deniers because they want to protect our democracy. and 2023 voters said no to extremism. um, on abortion in ohio, in virginia, and also in in kentucky and i think in 2024. the question is going to be who is going to move us forward? who is going to get is joe biden the person who is going to get the continue to get the country back on track and if it is up against donald trump, i know the polls that came out are not great and i would not ignore them if i'm the biden campaign and i don't think they are. but i would say that you need to make the argument that donald trump will take us back to extremism and will compromise our freedoms. and joe biden is the person for progress and to get us keep us on track. >> what is he often say? judge me not against the almighty, but the alternative or maybe the alternative conversations will have to come more and more. of course, we're a year out still. abby, back to you. >> laura, we do have another major projection here. the democrats have now won full control of the virginia legislature. they have retained the state senate and now cnn can project that they have flipped the house of delegates. we're going to go back to john berman over at the magic wall. john berman, this is the scenario, not what the governor, glenn youngkin, wanted, but the scenario that seemed in this political climate somewhat unlikely be democrats flipping the house of delegates in the commonwealth of virginia. >> yeah, i think if you talk to the democratic consultant class, this would have been the state and the race that they were watching most closely. let me just put this up there to reiterate what abby just said. right now in virginia, democrats lead in 52 of the races for the house of delegates. we have projected they will flip and gain control of the house of delegates and they are maintaining control of the state senate. as abby said, this gives democrats full control over the state assembly in virginia, both chambers, which is the exact opposite of what the incumbent republican governor, glenn youngkin, wanted. he campaigned hard in this state and lost in both cases in the house of delegates. it's actually even more embarrassing because it's a flip. it went from republicans to the democrats and the senate. it was a democratic hold in this in some ways may derail his national ambitions, at least for a time. abby i mean, you heard people whispering, should glenn youngkin jump into the presidential race, even at this late time, might be hard for him now, based on this air and again on the issue of abortion rights, which was very much front and center, he put it front and center for a time in this campaign. we see once again that democrats have prevailed here and as i said, yes, kentucky with andy beshear. that's a big win for democrats. but some people might look at that as an anomaly because of his family name, because of how strong he performed as a governor over the last several years. but this race, people are watching very closely. democrats think this could be a sign of what is to come. >> john berman, thank you for that. we'll be back with you shortly. and obviously, this is a blow not just to the governor, glenn youngkin. it's also a blow astead herndon to the republicans who had hoped that coming out of virginia would be a narrative that there is an alternative to trumpism, an alternative maybe it's centered around glenn youngkin, but maybe it's centered around issues like crime issues like education, issues like a i'm going to put this in quotes because this is the word glenn youngkin used as a compromise position on on abortion that turned out to not be the case. >> it turned out to not be the case in a big way. >> i mean, underneath the kind of candidate split on the republican party, you've had this kind of agenda fighting between, you know, folks like senator rick scott. obviously, donald trump at the top of the party and people like glenn youngkin, who have tried to pitch themselves as kind of conservative legislative shapers who could use this virginia session to really show how that works electorally. and that didn't pan out tonight. i mean, this is someone who's going to be term limited out of that virginia gubernatorial seat. and he was hoping to have a kind of moment that really showed that this brand of politics worked for these type of voters to actually get some things done in the next year with full control. >> absolutely. >> and so none of those things are coming to fruition. and i think we're seeing a democratic party that has learned a kind of muscle memory in the trump era. they did a better job organizing kind of on a state, local level. they reversed some of their grass roots problems that we saw during the obama era. and frankly, all of those groups that popped up in 2016 to 2020 have created a kind of language that's helped them in these special elections and have caused voters to really get more involved in some of these things. i don't think we can overlook how joe biden's democratic party top down is a more structured party for these type of races than the barack obama version of this party. that's the good news. the bad news is that those type of people are different who vote in presidential elections so they can do well with these types of people this year. the question is the type of person who then comes and votes for the top line of the ticket next year? look, we have so much to discuss on all of this. >> everyone just stick around for us. the results are coming in. the picture is becoming more clear. it has been a good night for democrats, a clashing at the same time with a very bad day for the democratic president. we'll talk about how these things work together. the brand new cnn polling that the white house is now looking at very closely. you're watching cnn's live special coverage of. notot anotother cloggeged drain yoyoud drdrain weaselel, the a amazingw drain snakake that unbnblocks clogged drdrains in n seconds so fast, so easasy. 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record frustration with president biden as he is asking americans to renew his contract for a second term. now, in a hypothetical matchup with donald trump, he narrowly leads joe biden 49 to 45. let's go back to john berman over at the magic wall to break all of this down. we've been talking about this polling, but but really, tell us , what is the picture here of how president biden is faring with the very voters that he actually needs in order to win reelection, particularly with the nonwhite minority voters? >> yeah, not faring well enough. that's the story tonight, abby. and you can imagine in the white house, they're saying, look at the votes. look at kentucky. don't look at the polls because the polls paint a bleak picture for them. as you said, in the head to head match up among registered voters, trump leads 49 to 45. but if you look at voter groups, particularly minority voter groups, and i'm going to keep both up on the screen right now so you can see this among black voters, joe biden leads, but only 73 to 23, according to pew. biden won over 90% of the black vote in 2020. that is a huge change. there among latino voters. is virtually tied again, a democrat to win needs to do much better among latino voters and among white voters. you can see donald trump with a 12 point lead. so you can see, particularly with black voters, which helped joe biden, propelled him to the democratic nomination four years ago and then into the white house. his numbers are sagging and there are some other numbers that should worry the white house, too, in terms of personality or character traits here, i want to put both up on the screen here. this is the trait applies to joe biden or the trait applies to donald trump. and i'll put both boards up so you can see what voters said. okay, respects the rule of law. trump leads, biden leads trump 51 to 35. honest and trustworthy. a 42 to 43 will unite, not divide, the country 39 to 44 and cares about people like you, 44 to 40. now, this incidentally abbey, back when i used to cover elections in the dark ages, this used to be everything. if you let among people cares about people like you, you won. right now, though, look at these other numbers that seem to be dragging joe biden down. you're proud to have as president trump actually leads, has 38% to biden's 33 as effective world leader. trump leads 48% to 36. and remember this is after joe biden's handling of ukraine and the crisis in israel right now and then has necessary sharpness or stamina. and this is the one that, you know, people will focus on. donald trump at 53. joe biden, president biden at 25. so, again, you look at these personality traits right now, abby, and you get a sense of how voters are thinking. >> yeah. and that doesn't even get into how voters are thinking about how president biden is handling his job. all of this seems to just raise some questions about how the president is faring, especially among his base voters who are going to be critical here going into the next cycle. john, standby again for us. laura, over to you. >> my panel is back with me, abby, on this very point. this is really fascinating to think about these traits and how the polling comes out. on the one hand, the administration wants to say, look at the polls now. they mean, of course, kentucky and they mean, of course, what happened in ohio and obviously virginia. but these polls tell a very different story when you look at what this means. i mean, what do you do about it? >> listen, i think the campaign would say there have been eight polls in the last three weeks that have had joe biden either tied or ahead of donald trump. so let's not get too carried away with 1 or 2 particular polls that show him in a tough spot. what i would say is i would say, is this what i would say? >> i know i want you to finish, but just for the american public, they will look at that and say, but how can he be tied in so close to donald trump given he's the incumbent and all the different indictments because it's the 5050 race? >> and i think if you look even at the new york times poll the other day, donald trump was basically at the number he was at on election day. so donald trump has a ceiling here. the question what we're seeing here is joe biden is the one who's oscillating up and down. and so the real question for me is getting bad polls is like going to the doctor and getting a bad lipid panel. right. it's like getting a bad set of labs. right. and so this is very personal right now. no, it's like, you know, is it the doctor's fault that i got high blood pressure or. no. like, so when you see those numbers, it does make you you have to sit back and take stock as a campaign and say, okay, what are we doing wrong on the measures of perception that are out there and we've got to go out and do something this age question is one of the questions the president is going to have to do things that show show people that he can engage, he can handle the combat. and the debate we saw it at the state of the union a year or so ago. he's going to have to be able to keep doing more of that. so people recognize that that he is actually up to the job. >> one of the things that's surprising to me is the level of the five alarm fire that many democrats are ringing based on a lot of these polls, the cnn new york times siena poll devastating for the president. but all of these things to their benefit. this is a year out. you all have one year to turn things around. and the people's disappointment with the economy, hopefully they can work on turning the economy around. other his disapproval rating potentially he can work on this, but all of these things are opportunities for them to grow. the one thing they cannot do anything about is his age. and currently, at 81, people have concerns about his age. the most part of the cross tab of today's cnn poll was the question of do you think he has do you believe that president biden has the stamina to do the job to. 85% of the people polled said he has the stamina to do the job. that is something he cannot do anything about that and when they asked about donald trump's stamina, 53% of the of those respondents said that he has the stamina. so that's going to be a difficult hill to overcome because he cannot do anything about his age or stamina. >> well, what do you what do you do about that? obviously, from the democrat side, they think about it the way you're describing it in part, but then republicans also look at this. and is that concerning then, that people have lower favorability for joe biden? does that mean that it elevates donald trump in a way that many republicans don't want if we're all being honest with each other here, we're both shocked that if your democrat that joe biden is your nominee and we're shocked as republican fans and concerned that donald trump is going to be our nominee. >> right. that's just the reality. >> and i would never describe a 78 year old with talking about their stamina or an 80 year old or an 81 year old. >> right. >> i mean, like we're splitting hairs at this point. >> we're talking about the most important position in the world that requires the most amount of attention, the most brain cells, the most articulate decision making. and we're and we're dealing with these two people well as our as our nominees. and one of them is going to be the next president again, even as a republican, we can do so much better if we just figured out a way to nominate somebody with a heartbeat and no felonies, they'd be ten points ahead of joe biden today. >> with all of those metrics that john just showed, there is a polling about this so-called generic democrat and the match up is pretty significant. >> but hold on. thanks, everyone. abby i want to go back to you for a second. >> cnn can now officially call the governor's race in mississippi. the republican there, incumbent tate reeves, holding off his democrat challenger who just conceded last hour. let's go now to john berman over at the magic wall. john, we've been watching very closely as these votes have been coming in, particularly early in the democratic parts of the state. they were not enough for the democratic challenger. >> that's right. not enough. 86% in right now. tate reeves, the incumbent republican, holds a lead of about 42,000 votes. and cnn projects that lead will hold . we've been watching hines county the most populous county in the state, with about 80% in brandon pressley, the democrat, has a huge lead there. he leads by almost 60, almost what, 38,000 votes. but even with 20% still remaining, it will not be enough to close that gap. and it's interesting, brandon pressley, i think received a lot of national attention in the last few weeks, partially because he's second cousins with elvis presley, partially because democrats thought he ran a very good campaign. but if you look at this race with a candidate democrats were happy with against a weak republican incumbent and i say weak because he's been dealing with some scandals, some welfare scandals and whatnot, it's basically the same result as four years ago when tate reeves first became governor. he got 52% of the vote. then jim hood got 46.7. and tonight, you're looking at tate reeves with 52. brandon pressley with 46.6. so yes, democrats might be happy with this number in a very republican state, but fairly in elastic, not able to get above that. a little bit of a ceiling, a significant african american vote, particularly in this part of the state, the democratic part of the state. but brandon pressley wasn't able to run up the numbers there. and one other thing we noticed, there were even counties, again, even with what was seen as a strong democratic campaign on the republican tate reeves, actually flipped lafayette county, home to oxford, ole miss. it's a it's a college county, right now. tate reeves right now leading with almost 52% of the vote, four years ago, the democrat won that county. so this flipped and is now a republican county. and if you want to be if you're brandon pressley and you want to overcome him, tate reeves in a republican state, that's the kind of county you would have needed to win. and he just couldn't get there. so, again, this would have been more miraculous for democrats. they would have looked at this as a miracle if a democrat was able to win in mississippi. they didn't get there. they'll be satisfied with his performance. but i think they might feel like, oh, they were so close. maybe they were on to something, didn't quite get there. >> yeah, i think that's really notable about oxford. they're a place where usually you could count on a few liberals coming out and helping a democratic candidate out, but not in this case. john berman, thanks for breaking all of that down for us. up next, i want to continue this conversation on those numbers. laura was talking about earlier. does vice president kamala harris do better 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the magic wall with those numbers john. >> yeah, it doesn't really look much better at the other end of the ticket either. you look at the approval ratings for vice president kamala harris, 39% approve, 631% disapprove. basically where president biden and as well and if you look at favorability also, so not particularly strong, 32% favorable, 52% unfavorable. very much underwater here. so again, as people look at president biden, look at his age, look at something that can prop up the ticket, it doesn't seem to be coming from his running mate, kamala harris, the vice president, at least not now. now, i'm sure if you went to the white house and asked them about this tonight, they would say, oh, yeah, well, look at kentucky. that would be their answer to this poll right now. and they would say that the democrat, andy beshear, just won in kentucky. they'll take the votes over, then the polls. but it but there is consistency not just in the cnn poll, but we've seen in the new york times and cbs polls right now that this administration is seen as struggling by the american people. >> john, i'm so curious about the why in particular, abby. i mean, digging deeper into those numbers, what is the reason for that? yeah i mean, this is the conundrum. >> i think a lot of democrats, frankly, are asking themselves about. i want to actually go to this gentleman right here on my right. instead herndon, who just wrote a big piece about the vice president and i mean, i cannot, you know, overestimate how much of a topic of conversation when vice president harris is and why those numbers are the way they are. what is the view inside of her office about what they can do about it? >> i mean, their view the top line view from inside the office is that they think she will be the ambassador to biden to fix these base problems. we see in the cnn poll in the new york times poll that she can be a messenger to black communities, to young people on issues like gun control and specifically on abortion. and issue. biden has been less vocal with when you see him along the trail, they say that in time her numbers will turn around. but when you look at kind of vice president harris as a figure, she's been someone who's been frankly unwilling to really lead the party's ideological conversations on many of these issues. i mean, we think back to the kind of criminal justice front in which she came. she's not been the person kind of over the last 4 or 5 years leading that democratic vote on it. i mean, when i asked her specifically about how she would define herself between the question of progressive or moderate, she told me, you know, how about you define those words? and i'll tell you where i fit. you know, that's not someone who's really willing to do that work for you. and i think that some of what voters are really perceiving is the of uncomfort with knowing kind of who she is and what she stands for. i will say that this is not separate from the age issue, but actually a piece of it. you know, when i talk to voters across the country, kind of outside of the insider world affairs, they really say that if they have more confidence in biden's number two, maybe they would see this a little differently. when biden made that promise to be a bridge to a new generation of democrats. i feel like a lot of people saw vice president harris as the first kind of down payment on that. and for a lot of voters, i talked to, that is the real break that's happened with president biden. there was a sense that he was an emergency option in 2020, but they really didn't kind of fathom that they would be back here in 2024. >> yeah, i mean, you go back to when he chose the now vice president to be his running mate. >> they were not friends, if you remember. that was a very famous exchange on the debate stage where she just went right after joe biden. but joe biden really did paint this picture that he was going to be this bridge, that he was going to help set up kamala harris to help break the glass ceiling, something that hillary clinton was unable to do back in 2016. but she hasn't seemed to grab the reins. you know, she hasn't seemed to jump right in and to show that she's willing to go out there and get her hands dirty, specifically on some of these issues that have been very, very difficult. now, i'm not sure if that the biden administration, if joe biden's advisers himself have been very good to her either. i mean, the fact is, she kind of seems like she's left out on an island and perhaps it's self-imposed in some ways because maybe she doesn't feel as if she's as connected to the administration as she initially thought she would be. >> well, tonight, i mean, look, with abortion once again proving it is the issue not just for democrats voters, but for voters writ large in this electorate. this could be an opportunity not just for vice president harris, but also kristen. i mean, i wonder, is there a path here for joe biden even with the numbers that we're seeing in this poll to create a policy focus, just stakes focused presidential campaign that overrides people's concerns about his age and his stamina and focuses there minds on, hey, what's going to happen if there's a republican in the white house instead of a democrat? the problem that biden is facing is that when you ask voters, for instance, do you think that biden's policies have helped you or hurt you economically by a double digit margin, they say hurt and then when they ask, do you think donald trump's policies helped or hurt you when he was president by a double digit margin, they say helped. >> people are looking back at the trump presidency through these almost rose colored glasses. and so while i'd love to think that this 2024 rematch from hell that we're likely to get between trump and biden is going to be this very policy focused sort of rematch. it's not. it's going to be these two men talking about how they each are going to be a complete disaster, completely incapable of holding the office. it's going to be much more personal than policy. that's just the reality of rose colored glasses. >> until donald trump is the nominee and he's out there and in front of people and it becomes very real right. >> i think that so many people seem to be operating from a hypothetical version of donald trump, a version of donald trump that we experienced, again and again. and i think from biden's perspective, he would say, i already beat this guy. and then you remember january 6th. remember how he has never been able to get over it? remember the last three years of our lives? so i would say from the biden perspective, they'd be saying we're not we're probably not going against nikki haley. we're probably not going to be running against ron desantis. we're going to be running against donald trump. but not even the donald trump of 2016, a version that could look forward. we're going to be looking towards a version of donald trump that is still fixated on the 2020 election. >> but these are the chickens coming home to roost for democrats, too, because in 2020, when they had that primary that was diverse, they had ideological differences, they really consolidated around the question of short term electability. who can beat donald trump right now? joe biden was justice was not justice, but it was pretty old at the time. and people were making this exact argument around looking to the future democratic voters prioritize the short term. and they found themselves in this conundrum because of it. >> democratic voters did that even when the sort of political class wanted to go in a different direction. so really important point there. everyone stand by for us tonight. there is also some drama on capitol hill. 22 democrats say that a member of their own party crossed a line that no member of congress should ever cross will explain what happened there next . >> tomorrow, after the republican presidential debate get critical context from the sharpest political team on television, anderson cooper and dana bash host the republican presidential debate. post-debate analysis is s live tomorrorow at ten.n. i'm s sarah rich h and te enrichmentnt directorr at indedependence v village, a a sr liviving communinity in waukukea .. >> everyrybody here e really, ry make youou feel likeke family ad that they y love you.. >> ourur goal withth t tiktok wo enririch the livives of f our resisidents andnd just to b be o show peoeople whahat senior l lg cacan be l like. >> i t think i amm a tikiktok ga . my kids s think i a am. i mea, we're the ones t that are bebeig entetertained. timeme goes fastn you'u're having g fun. itit's incrediblele what my f foodsaver vacuum seaealer canan do. >> easy mealal prep. . amazing w freshh the salmomon is. foodod s fresh up t to five times lonong, saviving m me thousandnds in grs . foodod saver savaves money, te and flavavor. >> i h have moderarate t to seve plaque psosoriasis thahanks to skskyrizi. i'm'm playingng 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where she accused president biden of supporting genocide, and that included the anti-semitic rallying cry, which she takes issue with that characterization drawn from the river to the sea, which calls for the erasure of the state of israel. i want to bring in my panel as allison again. she took issue on the floor with that characterization and was very emotional at times about being critical of the government of israel and that being conflated with anti-semitism. what do you make of this decision? >> she got very emotional on the floor today as the only palestinian american in the house of honestly, what happened on october 7th was terrible. well, and what's happening in gaza with innocent civilians dying is also terrible. and i think that what we're seeing play out is not just an international issue. it is now coming right to americans footsteps and to their doors and to our college campuses and it's going to play out in the 2024 election. i mean, we've been talking about the election the whole night. i think some of the poll numbers, because they were recent poll numbers about joe biden with young people, with people of color, have to do with what's happening in israel, in gaza. no one should ever make anti-semitic comments. and i often yield to the community that is the target of a statement to say if they find that language derogatory or not. i know talib said she did not mean it in an anti-semitic way, but 188 democrats did not support this vote. and it's also going to play out in these house races as hakeem jeffries, you know, is hoping to flip the house. so an important night tonight in terms of where our politics stands. i think it is another moment of divisiveness. i am surprised 22 democrats did support the censure. but here we are. and i think it's going to continue to play out over the course of the next year. i'm actually surprised 188 members of the house of representatives have not found her statements. >> and her continued statements absolutely unacceptable. and to censure her, that is shocking to me. and i think there's going to be some consequences when they're going for reelection. look, what she has said and not said. she refuses to point the finger at hamas and call hamas the bad guy here and the terrorist and refusing to accept the fact that israel has the right to defend themselves when they've attacked. and her comments and her slogan repeatedly about from the river to the sea. and she tries to claim that it is about peaceful coexistence that is bullcrap. she knows exactly what that means. that is about the complete annihilate of israel and the murder of innocent jews. she knows that. but the fact that she continues to put out this false narrative about what's going on and encourage people to protest and take to the streets on false information, that is absolutely despicable. and i am glad that the members of the house finally stood up to her. >> she also spoke about it again in that emotional speech on the house floor where she was comforted by some of her colleagues about that palestinian lives were not expendable, not disposable. and that was one of the issues she also was raising in trying to defend herself on that floor. you're congressman, actually brought the resolution. it contrasts to marjorie taylor greene, who tried to bring one that included insurrection based language. this one proved more successful. why do you think so? >> yeah, rich mccormick, you know, i think he was listening to his peers. and to see anything done in a bipartisan manner is says something, right? i certainly, as the president of the senate and the state senate in georgia, very few things were done in a bipartisan way that were controversial. >> but i think it shows to the complexities of what's going on. >> this is a war right? this is there's just the brutality of what happened in early october and now the events that continue to play out in the back and forth. >> i think it's just a sobering reminder of how unprepared we really are. right. we're still trying to pass a budget. >> we're still trying to get unanimous support for funding for israel. >> we're still trying to figure out how to, you know, really position ourselves as a global leader in foreign policy and all of the difficult scenarios that are playing out. i just don't think we're as prepared as we need to be right now. and i think that brings you know, that just brings doubt to the world's mind. this world is a better place when america leads. and i think this is one of these issues where we need to lead. >> by the way, we are just days away from another government shutdown on election night in america. everyone, thank you so much to my panel. both panels obviously, as well. election night delivers some pretty big wins for democrats in places like kentucky and ohio. and in virginia. we've got much more on the results and what they will mean just ahead. >> if your moderate t to severe crohn's s disease oror ulceratie colitiss 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a big night for democrats. >> it has been. look, the voters have voted. i was texting with a democrat earlier tonight talking about this dichotomy. we're seeing the polls looking really bad for the president, but the votes turning out differently. and this person said, you know, polls are an expression of frustration and maybe anger, but the situation when voters go into that ballot box, they are voting on what will actually happen to them in their lives. and that may be what we're seeing out there. and that could have huge implications for this next year. a very consequential presidential year that we're about to get into. >> that's why we call it election night in america. you never know what's going to happen. and here we are. and we got a year ahead as well. we want to thank everyone for watching our live coverage continue i in just a m moment. >> only y the sleep p number. st bed letsts you each choooose yor individualal firmnesss a and co, your s sleep numumber settiningd 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