Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

Cases and new york has opened its first drivethrough testing facility the doctor behind that program is going to join us in just a few minutes here kelly. All right bill, thanks our team of reporters is covering this story for us bob pisani is watching this rally fade and then try to come back today Rick Santelli is tracking the bond market where yields are moving up. Eamon javers is at the white house awaiting a press conference from Speaker Nancy Pelosi any moment now and from President Trump at 3 00 p. M. Eamon, what can you tell us . We got new information from the white house. The president was scheduled to hold a meeting with ceos and got as list of the ceos here and this gives you a sense of what the president is working on right now. Theyre saying that it included in this meeting are richard from walgreens, Brian Cornell of target, Doug Mcmillon of walmart, Steven Rokowski of quest, matt from roche and a number of other ceos i apologize for butchering some of the names in the pronunciation. The white house is hosting a wideranging meeting here on medication and some of the companies and consumer facing outlets that will be delivering medication to the American Public in coming days and weeks. Well wait to see if we can get any readout from that meeting with those ceos or talk to any of those ceos on their way out to see if anything was discussed here or any decisions firmly made as you say were waiting for Speaker Pelosi who said she will speak at 2 00 p. M. , an hour before the president of the United States who is expected to address reporters in the rose garden at 3 00 p. M a lot of news here coming this afternoon, kelly hold on to your hat. Eamon, you know, like we said, were going through a little bit of what the market might be looking for here, back up towards the highs of the session. I dont know if theres anything leaking out beyond what we thought we knew on this . Nothing right now i mean like we were talking about, we know of these six phone calls between pelosi and mnuchin during the course of the day today from pelosis side of things nothing really from mnuchins side of things Senior Administration officials have been buttoned up, aides ive been talking to over the past 45 minutes or so said they dont know anything about whats coming down the pike lot of rumors flying around but no solid information to be found. We have to wait for this announcement from the president along with everybody else. Were inside the twominute warning top nancy pelosi we want to get to bob pisani before then just to get a sense of where we stand today. Robert and we were drifting lower midmorning and then noon came, word that the president might declare a National Emergency and this has put a little bit of a floor on the market right now. Certainly been a bit of good news on Friday Market sectors moving,banks doing very well. Goldman and jpmorgan leading the pack for the dow industrials boeing a horrible week down 30 rallying apple exxon cannot rally there has been titanic knows for bonds this week. I want to show you some of the bonds and commodity etfs here. Thank you. Take look the at bond market here money market funds, record inflows, government bonds, record inflows, alltime record inflows. Investment grade bonds record outflows, thats not a typo, high yield bonds second largest outflows this is titanic amounts of money moving in and out. Same with commodity funds. Today, again, really big volume in the oil funds this is base metals, aluminum futures. This were going to jump in thanks very much. Nancy pelosi right here at the podium. She has been faced with a grave and accelerating challenge, one that tests our compassion and resolve, the coronavirus. Sadly and prayerfully we have with learned of the tragic deaths of at least 41 americans from this Public Health emergency so far the American People expect and deserve a coordinated sciencebased and whole of government response to keep them and their loved ones safe. A response that puts Families First to stimulate the economy to put Families First has week the house passed a strong, bipartisan 8. 3 billion emergency funding package of entirely new funds we made a wellfunded, evidencebased investment in Public Health in developing treatments and a vaccine available to all and prevention preparedness and response measures in helping state, local, tribal and territorial hospitals and Health Systems and in supporting impacted Small Businesses with sba loans and helping families extending Telemedicine Services no matter where they live. Democrats swift action to pass this emergency funding was essential to our nations long, overdue response next, Senate Democratic leader schumer and i last weekend called for further action to put Families First today, we ares passing a bill that does just that. The Families First Coronavirus Response act, which is focused directly on providing support for americas families who must be our first priority. The three most important parts of this bill are testing, testing, testing this legislation facilitates free coronavirus testing for everyone who needs a test, including the uninsured. We can only defeat this outbreak if we have an accurate determination of its scale and scope so that we can pursue the precise, sciencebased response that is necessary. To put Families First, our legislation secures paid leave for with two weeks of paid sick leave and family and medical leave for those affected by the virus for those who lose their jobs we are strengthening unemployment insurance, a critical step to protect workers Economic Security putting Families First our legislation protects our children and particularly the tens of millions of little children who rely on the free or reduced priced lunch they receive at school for their Food Security as schools are being closed these children will be deprived of their meals our bill takes aggressive action to strengthen Food Security initiatives including student meals as well as s. N. A. P. , seniors meals and food banks as we develop our next steps, we will continue to listen to and benefit from the expertise of scientists, health care professionals, Public Health officials and Community Leaders so that we can craft the most effective evidencebased response our nation, our great nation, has faced crises before and every time thanks to the courage and optimism, patriotism and perseverance of the American People, we have prevailed. Now working together we will once again prevail and well come out stronger than before. God bless you and god bless america. Thank you. Does the white house support this agreement and thats house Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking about the governments response to the coronavirus outbreak eamon javers standing by at the white house. What do you think . We didnt hear any mention of bipartisanship or the president or treasury treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin we have to get a take the temperature as they say of the white house here to see whether they are on board with this bill or not doesnt sound from that like pelosis has full buyin from the treasury secretary but let me make sure we dotted the is and crossed the ts before we say that for sure. Pelosi nonetheless saying shes moving forward now well wait to see what happens from thes white house here in about an hours time but that was short and sweet from nancy pelosi they are moving forward and theyre going to pass their bill, House Democrats are, today. And we just point out the markets coming off highs that were on when we came on the air here at the top of the hour, up about 650 points right now weve got testing, testing, testing and the paid leave portion of this. What do you think the white house wants to see in this at this point what the president has said is what he wants is the payroll tax cut. Thats the centerpiece of his plan to the extent theyve released one they havent put anything out on paper or documented what they wanted treasure secretary mnuchin when on cnbc earlier today said the president wants stimulus, fiscal stimulus, from that tax measure, but he would be interested in taking stimulus anywhere he can get it in essence. Mnuchin seemed to be signaling earlier today they understand that payroll tax cut is a hard sell on capitol hill and they might be willing to take other kinds of stimulus. Pelosi here not really mentioning these were all elements to get testing to people, food to children, emergency measures, less focused on the longTerm Economic stimulus or medium Term Economic stimulus the thinking is this could be series of bills worked out between pelosi and mnuchin and they see whats needed thank you back to the phones and your sources there we will bring in ron insana and michael farr, ceo of farr miller and washington. Good to see you all here i think the market is looking for a comprehensive package as quickly as possible and while were coming off the highs only half of it maybe a third if the president does, indeed, declare a state of emergency and force the stafford act and get fema involved in this where cash can be passed out to affected individuals that would be something that would probably help market sentiment, but everybody has been saying they want to see a broad sweeping piece of legislation that handles a variety of different issues simultaneously. Doing this piecemeal may make it tougher for the markets to digest over time. Michael, do you think theyll accept any signs of progress and the government has hinted it might come in layers when it was one kind of big bang piece of legislation . Yeah. I think so, kelly. I think the message was very good and targeted and it had there were reasons behind it and the testing certainly seemed to have worked very well in south korea and other places around the world. The thing that concerned me was that the speaker came on an hour before the president and i think its going to be very, very important that we hear some sort of unified message the last thing i think investors want to hear is sort of some sort of public squabble between the speaker of the house and the president to politicize whats going to be done or not done when we really are facing a national crisis. Mitch mcconnell has called anything coming from nancy pelosi and team an ideological wish list. We dont hear the Senate Majority leader talking in global terms of what may be coming out of the house. Its going to be interesting if we break down along partisan lines where everyone has been calling for bipartisan, that becomes at least potentially problematic for markets. Whats interesting and time permitting later this hour were going to be hearing anecdotal evidence of local municipalities and businesses, what theyre able to do to try to mitigate the impact of all of this, michael, and, you know, so at the grassroots level, there is work going on right now. Its encouraging and i think its very encouraging to see the way communities are coming together and School Systems are closing and people are very concerned about those who are most vulnerable. Theres a lot of evidence that things are going to work as best as can work to keep communities moving forward which keeps the economy moving forward which is i think going to be reassuring to wall street this has it to happen and the more uncertainty and bipartisanship as ron said isnt going to be helpful and market the wont take that well. Ron, we all remember very well those votes in 08 when we were trying to pass t. A. R. P. And all the different legislation and it would and when they went down, i can remember staring at the tv watching that happen who doesnt, right i was on that tv. When that happened. I was at a hedge fund watching them miss the vote and costing everybody extraordinary amount of money. Right are these analogies useful and are we with all too much living out of that playbook or is this a moment to meet the public where its demanding hope and answers to this crisis. Both can be true simultaneously on the one hand whether 1987, 97, 98, 2001, 2008, we had those unifying moments where in the case of Alan Greenspan in 1987 came out and said well provide the liquidity you need and had an Immediate Response from the federal government. Thats been the playbook since 1987 from that matter. You have two separate crises happening simultaneously and so you need a Health Care Policy response and you need well three really, fiscal and monetary responses so to the extent that you dont have a cohesive, coherent and bipartisan strategy you create a little bit more uncertainty in the marketplace and it would suggest that maybe, you know, wall street could stumble through some of this until they get, as eamon said, all those is dotted and ts crossed. By the same token, michael, i dont want to harp too much on local responses going on, but those are critical at this point as well. Are we relying or looking too much to a National Overall umbrella response from the federal government when, in fact, they arent the only place we need to look to get this thing solved well, i think your point is well taken, phil, we are seeing things on the more local level that seem to be effective and carrying some coordination on the National Level i think seems to be imperative certainly when you look at the results in south korea, by the massive amounts of testing that they did and thus Speaker Pelosi i think requirement for testing, testing, testing, thats sort of a message makes sense. Also to make sure that our most vulnerable economically are going to be able to survive through this economically will be important to our recovery but this doesnt feel like 1987 to me. I was at my desk in 87 as well and i know you think i was too young, but it was not a happy time in 1987 but it was a big reprising and there were excesses in the system this is a different challenge and if Mohammad El Erian is right we go into a global recession there will be a readjustment of fundamentals that will probable match up with some of the lower prices, all of this looks like its going to take some time. Michael, thank you, michael farr, ron insana, well see you later as well. As the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread jpmorgan has cut its forecast big time for u. S. And Global Growth like michael farr was discussing. Jpm now seeing negative growth for two consecutive quarters and calling for a socalled novel global recession joining me is their chief economist and managing director of Global Research bruce casman. We all really kind of snapped to attention to see gdp quarters could be minus 2 or 3 here. I think the disruptive events of the virus are pretty significant and broad based and its also spreading around the world. So what were seeing now is an enormously large economic shock spread over february in china, march and april in the u. S. And western europe and elsewhere and it looks to us like the Global Economy overall will be contracting in the second in the first half of the year i would emphasize, recessions are about the depth of the shock, the breadth and duration of it and the first two we have, we have a very big shock spreading across the world we dont think were going to have the duration of the shock we think we will rebound around the middle of the year and hopefully that means were not going to have the consequences particularly on labor markets that we normally get with a recession. Im curious what you base your forecast on, whether its channel checks or whatever it may be we have yet to hear we dont know how many cases there are going to be here in the United States, we dont know the impact it will have on various industries the only barometer is the stock market we dont get earnings reports for another three weeks, when we will presumably hear what the impact has been so far and hopefully we can get some Forward Guidance at that point then we get a better sense of where this is going and how bad it may be. Im curious, what youre basing yours on right now, bruce . Im not questioning it im curious where its coming from. Its appropriate to question and appropriate to note that forecasting is forecasting its looking into the future i think what were basing it on is the sense of what has been happening in terms of the containing measures, the social distancing activities, the fear factors and weve seen it play out in china, were seeing it play out in europe and were starting to see it build in the United States. So the looking at the entertainment industry, travel industry, looking at what might be happening just over march and april, thats enough with modest spillovers to the rest of the economy to produce a contraction in u. S. And in global gdp as we go through that period the magnitude of it and how long it lasts, how the virus plays out, how effective the policies are, these are things that were actually taking a reasonablebly positive

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