Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 20240711

Ofodollar getting a bit traction. The dollar is going down. This is part and parcel of the yellen trade, which seems to be getting reaction now. It will be interesting to see how she works handinhand with the fed chair. Minutes,e last few crude went through 45. This is wti. We are backing off the little bit, but that line in the sand is the highest level we have seen since march 6, which gives you an idea of the turnaround we are seeing. The big question, is it running too far, too fast . Alix some analysts starting to scratch their heads a little bit, particularly as they look at the curve. President elect joe biden said to announce his selection of former fed chair janet yellen as secretary of the treasury. Joining us as michael mckee, Bloomberg International policy and economic correspondent. What about this appointment is giving confidence to the markets specifically . Theael janet yellen ticks most important box for investors, she makes them money. Take a look at what happened when she was fed chair. Stocks compounded at a 12. 6 annual rate at a price basis while she was chair of the fed from putting 14 to 2018, and remember, when that happened, she was raising Interest Rates for the first time in seven years by 150 basis points. That is the most important thing. But there are other reasons why investors are hitting the like button. She has been a fixture in washington for years, wellknown, which means she is somewhat predicable. At least unlikely to swerve one way or the other. She believes in regulation on the financial industry, but by and large is happy with doddfrank, not proposing any major new changes. And of course, she understands monetary and fiscal policy. She can come of the theory goes, work seamlessly with fed chair jay powell. Shes been most of her career as a governor at the San Francisco fed, also the chair of the Economic Council of advisors. Im not sure this is all it is cracked up to be because the fed has been working closely with treasury, and it is not fear what else the fed can do, but it seems to be reassuring to be poor on wall street. Of i am hearing a lot safety or of hands today. That leads me to wonder, and i heard an old friend talking about this earlier on, to wonder whether she has been put into the role because the biden adminstration recognizes that we are really not out of the woods yet when it comes to this economic crisis and the ripples that are likely to flow from it. Issue being put in because she understands how to deal with a crisis . Michael it would seem that way, although at the fed, it is a matter of looking at all the options, looking at studies, and maybe not reacting to immediate crises like a drop in the markets. We are not sure how she will perform in that kind of role. But she does have experience in crisis fighting from an economic standpoint, and the Incoming Administration does know that it is going to have to get the economy going again. So i am sure they are looking at or to help that with looking at her to help with that. Alix also joining us is seema shah, Principal Global Investors chief strategist. Do you buy the argument to go buy cyclicals, sell the dollar because janet yellen is going to be treasury secretary . Seema i like that, but not just because of janet yellen. To speak toortunity her in september, and she was very keen for stimulus to continue, so the market should be reassured by that, but it dont think it is the only thing that has markets pretty happy at this stage. Guy lets talk about the vaccine trade. How much more gas to you think it has in the tank . Seema i think it has some. Weve seen that each Market Reaction has been a little more muted, partially because there are still some any question marks. Doubtless, the incoming news we positive, butis we are still looking at least another couple of quarters before your seeing mass distribution not just in the u. S. And europe, but across emerging markets as well. How many people are going to be willing to do that first round of vaccines . There are some hurdles along the way. I thicket is very promising to know that we are still going to have the fed behind the markets, and if you know there is fiscal stimulus much like to come, that is an added bonus. Alix mike, you were a political reporter for some time. If we are talking fiscal stimulus, theres a conversation being had that looks like, get something done down, get it small, and deal with everything elves later, versus wait until biden comes in. What is going to be most helpful for the economy at this point, knowing who the people in the cabinet are going to be . Michael you know that both sides can agree on money for the unemployed. The amount is to be decided, but some sort of either stimulus checks or additional Unemployment Insurance could probably be approved. The biggest sticking point, money for states and cities. Republicans dont want that. , wecrats say without that are going to see more layoffs. Put a floor underneath it right now going into the first quarter, given the rise in covid cases its slowing growth down now, and then try to negotiate something more. We will have a better idea when the senate races are over of what they can accomplish. Guy can i talk about what is happening globally on this trade . Weve got a steady pair of hands potentially in washington. Weve got the vaccine story coming through. Europe has been a really big beneficiary of this. I am wondering where the most unloved parts of the market that are. Re now looking at even the past this program that you think the u. K. Is possibly a massive value trap. Have you changed your views as using about the ways we exit this crisis . Seema i think in the short term, the ftse 100 could do well. We are looking at a kneejerk postnew year once brexit has hopefully been resolved, you will see a bit of a pickup with a rise in sterling. But i would expect the reality is you start to see surly you start to see sterling we can. All of these international companys also benefit from vaccine prospects, so i think this is more of a tactical position. I dont think from a structural longterm perspective u. K. Is a particularly attractive place, but at least it is a little more attractive than it was earlier this year. Alix technically, is the euro risk on currency and the dollar safe haven that is traditionally there happening right now . If not, how does that inform your technical mediumterm view . Agree, our view is that the dollar is going to weaken a little bit further through 2021, and that is a global reflation play. Typically the dollar is correlated with global growth. So where do you go . Where is your defensive play . To us, it is still technology. There are still so many question marks about the vaccine. Theres a lot of hurdles to get through. Anytime there is any fear in the market about the winter or just about the prospects for tech for the vaccine, technology is the play that rallies. Caps,e cyclicals, small emerging markets, but there is a place in your position to maybe cut technology through all of this. Guy just thinking ahead in what happens next, europe, i am curious as to your views on europe. It seems as if the europeans are ahead of the United States when it comes to what is happening with the virus, though i think youve probably got to get through thanksgiving and christmas to see what is happening here in terms of what the case counts will look like, but we are starting to wind down the full lockdowns here in the u. K. We will hear from emmanuel macron. We have this issue of we cant get our act together in europe on key areas like this new rescue fund. Just give us the view of europe right now, balancing these various factors out. Europe was seen as having its act together on the virus. It was seen as having made a big leap forward when it comes to funding and Going Forward with a joint funding structure. Does all of that still exist in terms of the case for investing in europe . Seema i think it is there in the background. Theres a lot which is promising about europe. You mentioned the fiscal recovery fund. I think it will come through. Hungary and poland will come around and there will be some kind of agreement at some point. Youve also got the ecb, and hopefully we are a little bit further ahead with the virus counts, so we should start to see that fading out. But europe just doesnt seem to have the dynamism that the u. S. Has. We think that europe can do better next year, but that is partly because it was an underperformer this year, so it is a makeup trade. Its made up of a lot of value companies. If you do see a successful vaccine coming through, i think there are opportunities in europe, but again, i would think of it as a tactical play. I dont have that much hope from a structural perspective of europe. Alix always wonderful to catch up with you. Also, bloombergs mike mckee, thank you as well. Coming up, investing in green energy. It is our conversation with the ceo of italys biggest utility company. Be joiningenel will us next. This is bloomberg. Ritika president elect joe biden and his team are beginning the formal transition process after several weeks of an action transition process. After several weeks of an action of inaction, the trump team is an alleging a bite and when is acknowledging a biden win. Bloomberg has determined the best and worst places to be in the coronavirus era. We have looked at where the virus has been handled most effectively with the least amount of disruption. New zealand is the best place, followed by taiwan, south korea, and finland. The bottom five include the czech republic, argentina, and mexico. A largely Virtual Conference in geneva drew representatives from more than 70 countries in the first such event in four years. Of eu pledged billions dollars in assistance to afghanistan over the next four years, but like many others, made support conditional on the countrys commitment to democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and gender equality. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Guy thank you very much, indeed. Lets talk about one European Company backing a big bet on green energy. Invests decided it will in the segment over the next 10 years. Enels ceotalked to about why now is the time to make such a big commitment. Gives us a little and wherelook on when is this big transition driven by technology going, and where are we going with it. Spacee saw is a wide open , a big case of renewables stronger than need and investments that to be flexible and digitized in order to allow electricity to really take over in the energy space Going Forward. Think that is where we got the courage, if you want to call it , but this is where the world is going, where people are going themselves, and we better hurry and be there. Alix how much of that is going to have to rely on m a . Francesco i think m a is a part of it. In our case, we are going to be acting largely in the distribution of regulated assets. Areas of the world where this is possible are enlarging. We have just seen india opening up for the sector to be privatized. We have latin america being involved at the moment. I think large parts of europe. To look at distribution assets large parts of europe will look at distribution assets. Guy lets talk the disposal side of that coin. Is the place i need to go to here. You talked on the call this morning about needing to, wanting to monetize that asset. Of the give me an idea timeframe . Does time make it more imperative that you monetize that asset . Wheres the conversation right now in terms of the timeline . Francesco the conversation is at the very end, so there is not a time pressure at all. We are basically there. Whether this is instrumental to the plan, not really. Buts a better opportunity, proof, and a limited value of time, a lot of is in the combination between needs of our society, technology availability, and our platforms. This is something we call the stewardship model, way of investment, giving them the ability to access the cape abilities we have. Greathink it is a achievement not only because of the value created, but also because this is the model we can replicate over and over. Alix lets get back to the open fiber question. Knowarket is wanting to some more. Previously it was talked about as the end of november for potential he a sale potentially for a sale. There has been pressure on the intelligent government to sell. Does that mean we can expect an announcement in the week . Francesco the announcement will be when we have finalize the deal, which is less than a week, i would say. I will not give a deadline because that would not make any sense at this point. I think the government is happy has hadhat this venture this success, and that it can instrument in theher accelerating formation of [indiscernible] it is a big change from a regulatory standpoint. Ceo that was enels talking to us earlier today. Still ahead, we are going to talk more about the Airline Industry with the iata director general. This is bloomberg. Ritika it is time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. U. S. Home prices surged the most on record in the third quarter. Housingg to the federal finance agency, prices jumped 3. 1 over the previous three months. The Housing Market has been booming during the coronavirus pandemic. Record low Mortgage Rates are helping to fuel demand. Tiffany posted strong earnings in one of its last reports before being taken over by a French Luxury Company lvmh. Thirdquarter profit at the chain was much better than expected, and comparable sales in china almost doubled. Goldman sachs is planning a european stock Trading Platform in paris. The aim is to make sure clients can still buy and sell shares even if there is no postbrexit agreement to allow dealing in london. Goldman has asked french authorities for permission to start in january. That is your latest business flash. Alix for more on goldman sach plans, bloomberg wall street correspondent sonali basak joins us now. Can you give us context . Is this a big deal . Sonali the reason this is a big deal is that shows another behemoth moving operations outside of london, and they actually quantified how much of an impact that would make on london trading. Elizabeth martin, cohead of futures and equities in electronic trading at the firm, told us that london would lose most of its trading volume. Of allow it has 1 3 european chair trading in london. So that is a big deal, as well as other concerns about talent moving away from london potentially over the longerterm. Remember, nobody expects the shift to happen overnight. This has been happening for years. But it is becoming a lot more real to a lot more people. Guy how much of the total volume that goes through london is eu volume, and how money people are we actually talking about moving here . Sonali it is not clear how many people we are talking about moving, but goldman in particular signed a 12 year lease for a new office in the french capital of paris. That could mean doubling its headcount in the city, according to our colleagues. That is a significant move. When ive talked to competitors as well, there have been issues in lowering talent and other cities across europe in luring talent in other cities across europe. With that said, paris is a different story. Theres a lot of wealth accumulating their, and banks are focused on dealmaking as large french corporations decide to do more deals in the next era. Alix thats interesting. How does this shift with the whole work from home thing . Mightrd the Deutsche Bank move 40 of its staff to work terminally from home. Sonali a lot of this is electronic already. Goldman is one of the big firms in personown on workforce. Deutsche bank, the idea of having more people work from home will help with their real estate footprint. It can cause a significant dent in their cost base as it relates to real estate. There are still regulatory concerns about doing this, but it could cause a real dent and perhaps because other people to shift as well. Of how this terms is longterm going to change the risk profile, what kind of people are we talking about here working from home . Sonali it is unclear because you see traders still wanting to come in, especially at a firm like Deutsche Bank, which has been changing a lot. That kind of push, that cultural push for traders to come into the office, is still there. But you see a lot of Investment Bankers working from home because they can make calls from there. Guy absolutely. Thank, indeed thank you very much, indeed. We will talk more about the european close next. This is bloomberg. Bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Wannits timeight and for aerotrainer. A more effective total body fitness solution. announcer aerotrainers ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time. It allows for over 20 exercises. Do the aerotrainer super crunch, push ups, aero squat. It inflates in 30 seconds. Aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. Lose weight, look great, and be healthy. Go to aerotrainer. Com. Thats aero trainer. Com. Guy stocks finishing the day in europe. 30 seconds until the end of regular trading. Thing thisfirst morning and then a Light Trading range for european equities. We placed in we priced in the yellow bounce and we continue to price in the vaccine story. The rotation continues to be positive. Outperformance in the states of the small caps. A similar narrative in europe. That is the session. Cap higher. In terms of the individual markets, relatively similar performance in terms of what we are seeing. The big caps outperforming little bit. The ftse, the dax, and the cac 40 outperforming. 1. 5 across most of europe. To 1. 25 . In terms of what we are seeing in the individual stocks, we are certainly seeing a rotation that is continuing to favor some of those bigger stocks some of those sm

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