The transition process starting to kick in. Tom not only the good news, but just as much as there was no bad news today, and that gives a lift to equities and other adjustments in the market. Jeffrey currie will join us from Goldman Sachs, which is wonderful. Futures up 27 and we will talk about the data in a moment, but yes, chair yellen front and center in this historic moment for our politics. Francine lets get to bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump is finally calling on his agency to cooperate in the formal transition process with joe biden. That follows weeks of inaction. The General ServicesAdministration Made its official made it official with its acknowledgment that biden was the winner of the election. Still, President Trump says he will contest the outcome of the vote. Formeren has turned to fed chair janet yellen to be his treasury secretary. She would become the first woman in the job if she is confirmed. She is likely to win support from wall street and Democratic Party progressives. Board has a michigan voted to certify the election results. That practically ensures joe bidens victory over President Trump in the state. Only a possible republican recount stands in the way of assuring that biden will win michigans 16 electoral votes. British foreign minister Boris Johnson it has confirmed that Englands National lockdown will end next week, replaced by a tougher system of regional restrictions designed to last until spring. Johnson says that if all goes well, the vast majority of people who need a Coronavirus Vaccine will get one by april. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. In the equity markets, a nice move here. I want to make clear, intraday futures, we got the dow 30,000 for not even a cup of coffee, a little quick espresso shot. But for the most part we are up against tradable highs come on dow, 36. 02. He was futures up 37. The vix really cooperates off of yesterdays enthusiasms. 2. 20 we will see it near a 21 handle in a bit. Market, continued persistence of weak dollar is how i would put it. Thats all it got right now. Francine . Francine i have a similar data check to yours. Energy stocks leading the stoxx 600 index. Banks notching gains. Stock markets globally are trending higher after the gsa acknowledged biden is the apparent winner of the president ial election, and the move reduces his Political Uncertainty in the u. S. Crude oil is advancing. Thesesually we bring in videos, but they need a little explanation as we get to Michael Mckee and his wonderful perspective. On october 19, it was just another interview with chair yellen, on a project of hers that was great. I of course was completely rude and brought up treasury, and even worse, i just sort of went along through the motions. Andn picked up the baton directly addressed the fiscal policy of this nation. She brought that up in the interview versus us really bringing it forward. Here is a fired up janet yellen. We need support for the economy, both for monetary and fiscal policy, and Monetary Policy has already done a huge amount. Fiscal policy response in the United States has been extremely isressive, but actually it much larger fiscal support than what we have done after the 20082009 financial crisis. But the fiscal support has now lapsed. It is not their objective ever to directly try to help the federal Government Finance its budget deficit, and that would be a very dangerous kind of support to provide. But i do expect i think asset purchases have worked. They are hoping to have longerterm rates, and i expect there to be ongoing purchases. Theprobably not geared to fiscal deficit. Tom very good, chair yellen there, we would believe will be heading toward treasury. Michael mckee with tons of experience on this now. Michael, i go back and i look at albert gallatin, i look at maybe a few other bright people who have taken the job, but other than that, she is the smartest room as well. Or in crisis, what will she do as secretary of treasury . Michael it will be interesting to see how well she gets along with congress. If there is one area she has not done the same sort of thing as in powell it is as liaison congress with both parties. We dont know how she will work with the senate. She should be easily confirmed. She has been confirmed three times. But in terms of stimulus package, that is an open question. However, the important thing i think to most people is that she is very familiar on wall street, and as biden said last thursday, his choice is someone who i think will be accepted by all elements of the Democratic Party, from regressive to the moderate coalitions. She has a history of serving under democratic coalitions. Accuracy for her advocacy of longer for lower interest rates, i think she will be quite popular in the beginning. The jack lew came out of trenches of massachusetts politics for that congressional mandate. Is there a theory of janet yellen . Is she a kind of economist . Michael she is a labor market economist. She is definitely a keynesian. She leans towards the idea of doing as much as you can to bring down the Unemployment Rate is opposed to controlling inflation. Not that she likes inflation, but she felt that something changed in the economy, and there is a famous line from her in 2012 where she argued for qe3 against those worried about additional bond buying leading to accelerating inflation or a market bubble. She says these concerns pale in comparison to the potential economic and human costs of failing to reduce the Unemployment Rate as aggressively as we can. She set the stage for what the fed has been doing. Because of her, the Unemployment Rate got down to 4. 1 , much iter than the fed thought continued under jay powell. She was the one who really pushed the policy of let the economy go and see how low we can get unemployment. Thecine michael, given secular stagnation environment, how will monetary and fiscal policy have to work together, and how new and complex will that be . Michael it will be interesting to see if it is anything new. What a lot of people are saying now is that because of her experience at the fed, she understands the important the importance of the fed lending treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is eliminating, and she would put things like that back in place. What treasury did is guarantee the fed against losses, and if the fed gives back the money that has not been spent to do that yet, in theory should could reprogram and bring it back. So people will look to see if they set up the same kind of system where the treasury helps the fed with lending programs Going Forward. What they do after that is kind of an open question. The fed at this point can only raise and lower interest rates, other than the lending programs. So there isnt much more for them to do. Pushed to keep rates lower, which would be basically the only thing they can do lower for longer they probably will go along because of the Economic Situation they find themselves in. Could we see more coordination between the two, or is it too soon to tell . Michael i dont know how much more coordination there can be. They have worked closely together so far. Thego back to world war ii, treasury agreed to keep rates pinned to fund the war effort. I suppose you could formalize Something Like that, although fed officials are concerned about the idea that if you wander too far into fiscal territory, they would like to stay in their lane as much as possible. But that doesnt mean they wont do what treasury wants and keeping rates low because the economy calls for it. Tom Michael Mckee, thank you so much. Im sure we will hear from you through the day. International economics and janet yellen correspond. Coming up, Jeffrey Currie from Goldman Sachs. Rent crew at a target of 47, 40 6. 53. 43. 58. Xas, a good time to speak to dr. Curry. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Lots going on. We are going to get to turkish lira. It is center tendency off the weakness and the huge advancements, really coming back abruptly this morning, 7. 95 in turkish lira. Right now, Jeffrey Currie with us from Goldman Sachs head of commodities research. Oil off why . The impact on oil demand and Economic Activity is not nearly as severe as what we saw back in the spring, so that is one positive factor. Is other positive factor people are looking into the second half of next year, and they see a much tighter market. Whether we are talking oil or any of the commodities, every single one of these Commodity Markets with the exception of wheat today is in a deficit. You have to ask yourself what happens when you get a normalization of Economic Growth if the markets are already in a deficit. Everyone of these markets have been moving higher over the left several weeks. Tom lets call it the prize. President biden has to do with the prize as well. Does the election folder into oil dynamics, or rather, i should say, in which way does it . Well, you have two aspects to that. In terms of looking at the impact that regulation is going to have on the oil market, it is very positive. The other one is a lot of people think the environmental policy is negative into oil. Initially it creates a lot of stimulus that will benefit oil demand as opposed to hurt it. And the chinese are buying all sorts of commodities because they think biden is going to be much softer on the trade wars. The negative is there is a higher probability that probability of iran coming back online. What i want to emphasize that is embedded in our forecast for our target next year at 65 a barrel. Francine what is your base case in terms of how Energy Policy under a Biden Administration actually changes . Jeff obviously the biggest moving factor is an iranian deal. That is the one that i think most people in the Energy Market have their eye on. The other is that you end up tighter regulations around emissions with other regulations on the sector. Think the big one that everyone is focused on in Energy Policy is iran. But i want to emphasize we have this embedded in our forecast, and we still have deficit markets, the second half of next year and going into 2022. Francine do you also have embedded in your forecast a vaccine that you be a rollback to the population worldwide by the First Quarter of 2021 where we go back to normal . Jeff i want to emphasize that the vaccine is really a tactical in 2021. For upside i want to say it again, every single one of these markets, whether it is agriculture, metals, or energy, with the exception of wheat, which means what we had what happens when you get that tactical improvement, numerals asian into the economy, it is the upside. But i think more importantly it is that the pandemic itself is a structural catalyst, which we think that that vshaped recovery next year is going to be the beginning of a structural bull market economy. Tom it is just a blended blue commodityoomberg index. Is the Goldman Sachs call that we finally get a legit turn toward some form of optimism in commodity and a lift in blended prices . Jeffrey absolutely. I think there are three themes that we are focused on. The first is that we have policy driven demand. Something we have not seen in a long time. If you think about the financial crisis, you needed policy aimed at financial stability. The covid crisis is one of social need, so the policy based on social need would impact slover income house lower income households, with much more compounded he commodity intensive. You thing about the financial crisis, policy was aimed at crating a wealth effect. A wealth effect benefits high income households. They dont consume a lot of commodities. When you look at policy directed at social media, at social demand is one. Strong returns and new economy sucking all the capital out of the old economy, structural impediments. That is why the third theme is reflation. A weak dollar reinforces higher commodity prices. Our conviction on commodities moving higher i want to emphasize, soybeans, corn, copper, a lot of these markets are moving a lot higher today. Francine what are you expect from opec next week . What will they do . Jeffrey our base case is a rollover of the current production cuts. We dont see the increase in supply coming until april. I do want to say there is uncertainty around it right now, but i want to emphasize, they have gone back and said they are committed to opec. It is not in their interest to start a price war at this point, so we think it is going to be a rollover, extending that production increase until april of next year. I want to emphasize, due to the structural declines in supply Company Increases next year, we still have saudi going to 9. 5 in april of next year, going to 10. 5 in the First Quarter of 2022. There is room for opec to bring back that supply online, which everybody at opec gets increased market share going into the second half of next year, but the vaccine on one side, structural supply on the other. Francine jeff currie of Goldman Sachs stays with us. In the next hour, we will be speaking about janet yellen with jason furman. That is coming up in about 30 minutes from now. York, 11 30in new am in london, and this is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Blackrock is betting on the future of personalized index investing. The worlds biggest asset manager agreed to buy a creator of tailored index strategies that are popular with the rich. The price a little over a billion dollars in cash. Perio is owned by private equity firm old gate capital and their employees. Platform in paris, the aim to make sure that shares an shares can still be bought and sold. Goldman has asked french authorities for permission to start in january. It is a major shift in a fight that has fracture the American Auto industry. General motors will withdraw from a legal battle between the Trump Administration and california. Gm had backed the gmstrations attack on says its goal of speeding adoption of electric vehicles is aligned with joe bidens supportive cleaner cars. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Tom . Francine . Thank you so much. Elon musk giving a keynote on tackling the next generation of batteries. This is the ua a comfort the u. N. Conference on batteries, a nonevent even three or four years ago, now the future of some of these companies depend on what kind of batteries they will get. For most of us, this is a Virtual Event with elon musk giving his thoughts on batteries, and we will have plenty more on that when he gives us insight into how our Battery Storage will be different. We will bring you that. In the meantime, this is what the market is looking at. The markets are figuring out exactly what the administration will bring. Lets listen into elon musk right now. Prices ot of processes where we are improving the time and we have to redesign shin refor continuous low operation. Occasions, designing the prototype really of any advanced technology is i think relatively easy, and then scaling up to highvolume production is very hard. Two solar tom focus. Mr. Musk up. Tesla and s p 500 stock. Many people, number of quarters ago, suggesting the deartth of tesla. Not happened. Has a battery conference in europe. Speaking on climate and esg, which quickly brings us to the moment at hand in the United States. Francine this was yesterday with joe biden picking john kerry, the author of the paris ord, his climates are climate czar. Jeff currie still with us. Respected,eone very someone who knows the ins and outs of washington and World Leaders with john kerry. What will he do for renewables and Climate Change and does it change your view on when we see peak oil . Jeff it does not change our view on when we see peak oil, but it does change our view on the amount of stimulus and potential investment nearterm. We are likely to see so much stimulus around environmental policy, whether it is renewables, alternative energy sources, over the course of the next five to 10 years and it is likely to add more to oil near torn before it transitions off in the future. Our base case is we need to spend 2 trillion per year to deal with Climate Change on a global basis. Between the u. S. And what is going on in europe and china, this year it will be closer to 5 billion. But this is on par with the capital intensity we saw during the 2000s. Oom in and we look at copper and metal demand over the next five years, it will actually be bigger under in current environment than the 2000s. This is significant. And if we get a blue sweep out of georgia, that number goes up tremendously under the Biden Administration. Nearterm focus, this is real, big, it will benefit commodities, particularly metals. Dealing with the whole question of peak oi