Abramowicz and tom keene in new york. Good morning on Bloomberg Radio across the nation. Good morning on Bloomberg Television worldwide as well. Theferro, without question most mysterious jobs report ive ever witnessed. Jonathan we talked about the wide range all morning. Lets talk about it again. At the top, 2. 4 million. Thats the high estimate. Below, 100,000. The pace of the recovery is slowing. I wonder if we have seen more evident if we are seeing more evidence of that a little later this morning. Tom i thought of one of your good questions earlier, the idea of this shift to the new unemployed. Forget about furloughed. Forget about all of the other language. It is people terminated. Lisa people are becoming permanently laid off. Initially it was temporary. My question today is going to be is bad news good news, and is good news bad news . The idea that if we get a worse than expected report, we will get into this for some as we will get impetus for some kind of fiscal support we will get some kind of impetus for fiscal support. Mr. Kudlowl have with jon ferro later this morning. Ag tures on that fence s p futures a nice bounce from two hours ago. ,n the backdrop of this particularly for the white house, will be the Market Action from yesterday. Jonathan agreed. The absence of price action elsewhere not just in haven assets, but Nothing Happened with dollaryen. Also in risk assets. See much of anything in highyield credit. Credit spreads over the last couple of days have done that a lot over the last 4, 5 weeks. Its been an equity story, and it raises two questions. Is it just an equity story, order it or does it raise really important questions about portfolio construction . Can you have a volatile market and the rest of your portfolio offsets that . Is that a big problem, and what does that mean for you Going Forward . Tom to drive forward this conversation, we will do economics here and dive into that jobs report in 27 minutes area but right now, someone that writes very thoughtful notes around his optimism on equities, and hedging the outcomes of a pullback. Ben laidler joins us from power hudson research. About been really good being steeled for a pullback. Now what . Wow, it is classified now as a pullback. Ive been bullish for a while. I didnt expect nasdaq to go up 20 since the end of july. So i think we should be reasonably realistic about this. This going to be bumps along the way for sure. Yesterdayint, i think have equal you weight s p still down for the year, this massive bifurcation, i think tech remains very well supported here. Sorte no problem with the of 30 times plus with the quality we are seeing, with these positive earnings. Just when we think tech is done, you have zoom, you have doc you ign thatyou have docus smash earnings expectations. I do think the world is in the more reopening stocks, and you saw that yesterday. You saw quite an interesting rotation into the reopening stocks. Thats where i think the risk reward is, as new cases come down, as we come to a vaccine and lockdown indices are still very high, these companies arent making any money. The operating leverage i think is dramatic, and that is where i think the relative opportunity is here. Tom a quick data check here. As ben laidler mentions, the dow green on the screen, up 27. Spx, negative eight. Even the nasdaq still very negative. Yields up about two basis points. It really shows what you and i observed through the summer, and that is the idea of one day the cyclicals, next day the techs. Jonathan the rotation from here to there and then back again all over again. What do you say . Stick with growth . Stick with tech . Ben i think you own both, but first let me different reasons. Tech is a structural story. It is not going away. These very clean balance sheets, very high probability, etc. But i think the shorterterm cyclical opportunities is in the reopening stocks. I think they are definitely much more underground, and that is why the risk reward makes more sense. If we get a vaccine tomorrow, the tech stocks will trade down, and that is most of your market. Thats whats been the driver of the market. There is a sort of question here that it is that 1 3 cyclical side. Is that going to be enough to take all of the indices up . But i think the tech story is the structural story which is here to stay, and it is very well supported, much better than some people think. But again, i think the risk risk reward the is really on the cyclicals at this point. Jonathan lets talk about that word we heard 70 times in the last 24 hours, and that is the word from heard so many times in the last 24 hours, and that is the word for off the word froth. Volatilitynt that picked up along with the equity market rally. What were your thoughts on that argument, just to explain what has happened in the last 24 hours . Ben when you look at the price action yesterday, it was very tech specific. The cyclical reopening stocks did pretty well. You didnt see the sort of classic safe haven. The dollar didnt do particularly well, bond yields didnt do very much. Somess that would support of that narrative. We will see. Well. As just done so we will see how much of that actually begins to unwind here. If tech does keep coming down here, i would definitely be stepping up to that. I think this is a very structural story, and i have no problem with valuations. I think that is very well supported. Just when you think tech is done, another Company Comes down and smashes earnings expectations. Jonsjust to build on point, theres this whole belief that the robinhood traders, the newbies are coming in and taking outsized risk, and some of these risks, whether it is an options or actual stocks, is leading to some of these swings that wall street is betting against. Is that what is driving this, or is that just a convenient excuse for a natural selloff, a natural blowing off of steam for pretty high flyers . Ben that is an excuse, to be honest with you. If you look at the robinhood is not theld, it large market cap stocks. Cap they own is the smaller stocks and cyclical stocks. Just more broadly, if you look at the Retail Sentiment indices, you look at some of these other broader measures of Retail Investment sentiment, they tell you that sentiment is not great. 40 of the surveys say they are bearish. That is way above average. I think one of the broader supports of this market is actually that people arent that bullish. You had two weeks of equity inflows in the last four months. Lisa given the point about outside volatility and a pickup index thats up in vix bets, will you wait more for value to fall for the apples and amazons of the world, or by now or buy now . Ben that needs to be the core part of your portfolio, anchoring your portfolio. I would be comfortable if it came down a little bit more, but fundamentally, owning it needs to be core of your portfolio. I think the shorterterm risk reward here is on the much more cyclical reopening trades. We are running a barbell right now, but again, i think the risk reward is on the reopening stocks. That is where you are getting the operating leverage. I think theres a multitude of , whether ityst here is a vaccine or god for bid we get some extra fiscal stimulus. Jonathan before we let you go, weve got two minutes left, and lets not waste it on british cuisine as we have done. People are bullish. There will be people who heard that and thought, what on earth is ben laidler talking about . Can you explain that . Ben we have an index of investor sentiment. We look at the vicks. We look at fund flows, which i just talked about. We look at the Retail Investment sentiment, which i also just talked about. You put all that together and it is a sort of proxy, almost a contrarian buy levels. The vicks is still above average the vix is still above average. Retail investors are still pretty bearish. We use this as a controlling signal. It is not even close to average. This just tells me this has been a big pain trade for a lot of people. First of all, we thought it was a sort of bear market rally, and we were going to retest our lows. The market just sort of grind higher. I think theres a number of reason this market is very well supported. Whether that is bond yields at zero and there is no alternative, threw two stimulus, new cases coming out, i think the fact that this market has just been grinding higher and investors have been sitting on the sidelines, have quite a lot of cash, and have been gradually pulled into this market is definitely one of the supports that is out there. Jonathan great to catch up. Ben laidler of tower hudson research, head of the payrolls ahead of the payrolls report about 25 and the way. Coming up on this program, we will catch up with jim glassman, head of economics for j. P. Morgan Chase Commercial banking. From new york and london, this is bloomberg. Karina with the first word news, im karina mitchell. The u. S. Labor market likely saw a fourth month of a fruman of improvement in august. The monthly jobs report is out in a few minutes at 8 30 new york time. Economists projects the unlimited rate will drop below 10 for the First Time Since march. Republicans and democrats have agreed treasury secretary that have agreed on one thing. Treasury secretary steven agreed on onee thing. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker nancy pelosi are working to prevent a Government Shutdown before the election. Suspect in a shooting of a rightwing activist in portland has been killed. Federal Authorities Say they were trying to take him into custody when officers shot him. He was a vocal supporter of the farleft antifa movement. President trump has denied an account that he disparaged americas war dead is losers. Therding to the atlantic, president tried to get out of a visit to the graves of marines killed in world war i, saying, why should i go to a cemetery filled losers . The president has called the report a total lie. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Mitchell. This is bloomberg. This is really what is going to sustain a recovery Going Forward, if we have that fiscal stimulus package. If we dont come of those people who are going to be facing job losses, they are the ones that are going to struggle, and there will be an impact further down the line. Jonathan seema shah of Principal Global Investors on the need for fiscal easing ahead of the payrolls report. Heres the price action. Process at worldwide, with equity futures declining a little bit and the s p 500, down 0. 25 . The epicenter of the pain is the nasdaq, futures down another 1. 4 . If you took away the equity market and i just showed you fx, bonds, and maybe a little bit of credit in the last 24 hours, i dont think you would have guessed what was playing out in the nasdaq yesterday going into the close. Tom real quiet tape into that jobs report. We had wonderful perspective this morning. Claudia sahm is always really something, looking for 6 trillion of stimulus. That dovetails with a bank like j. P. Morgan, where a few weeks feroli madeand clear they see change ahead. Thereassman is with us, had economist of a partial banking of commercial banking. About 95 ofack to where we want to become a but Going Forward, weve got big challenges still, until we get a medical answer. I think the Biggest Challenges are faced by anyone connected to air travel, tourism. That includes municipalities, the air travel business. Next to them, we got the school problem. Schools are really struggling to figure this out. So i think there are challenges. We were covered a lot of ground to make further progress. It is just natural we are going to slow down. I think weve got enough momentum in the pipeline to keep moving forward, and we are seeing gradual projects gradual progress in the labor market. Tom one of the distinctions is goods versus services. Ive seen a lot of people concentrating on Service Sector dynamics. What do you see in your travels on the american Service Sector . Jim it is the most challenged because when you postpone certain types of activities, you tend not to make them up. But i think the heart of the problem is really connected to the travel, and ironically, the Health Care System. Hospitals got crushed during this quarantine period because they had to clear the deck to make room for sick patients with covid19. You can see that in the numbers. Health care spending really plunged because a lot of their revenues come from elective procedures. But the good thing about that is if you have to postpone an elective procedure, it is probably likely that youve got to reschedule it. It didnt go away. So i think some of that is going to come back, and we are seeing that. When you see more of the detail on health care spending, back in may, about 20 states allowed hospitals to start opening up again. So i think we will see some of that service area come back. But it is a little ironic that the Health Care System was really getting squeezed. That is a very big part of the Service Sector. Lisa we are going to be looking a lot at private Sector Employment coming up in about 15 minutes. On the publicsector side, there are potential layoffs in the wing that are going to get implemented if we dont get some kind of fiscal support past. I saw the story about new york citys mta possibly cutting more than 8000 jobs to deal with their budget crisis. How much do you expect that type up anoff to start to pick effect of the outlook of an forward, without more funding from washington . Jim that is a huge part of the problem, and it is really the local communities. That is all about the loss of tourism and travel, which generates a lot of sales tax for communities. These guys, we saw some hefty cuts already at the local level in the school system. Myself, i think the best hope for that sector is to get people moving again. Get the travel backup. It is hard to believe we will get there until we get a medical answer and people are comfortable getting back on a plane and flying around. It is all about international travel, domestic travel. It touches everybody. Every municipality i talk to. Is,nino, where grand canyon they have the same challenges because air travel at all these major airports is way down to about 1 8 of the normal flow. That is a huge impact on municipal finances. Lisa given the fact that we will probably see more cutbacks, how much do you export the Unemployment Rate to go down over the next 12 months . The expectation today is to fall to 9. 8 . Jim i think i am more optimistic because i think we will have a medical answer. The fed on the sidelines has really changed their view about what can be sustainable and the benefits of lowend employment. That is going to guide a lot of our policy actions because we realized, despite what everybody thought, that this economy could ofrate at a very low level unemployment without causing inflation problems. That is going to be the gps for most of the policymakers, so if you go out 12 months, i think 12 months is enough time to get through this. The next hurdle was to get to the vaccines. Then you can talk about getting down to those levels of unemployment. But for the next 12 months, youve got to be a little cautious. Jonathan we have a medical answer. It is not perfect, but we have one. It is called testing. Making sure you get the results back more quickly. But i am struggling to understand is why we are not doing this on a much bigger scale to reopen the travel corridor between new york and london. I know what its like to be shut out on the others. Im just wondering, if they did something there, but it would mean for your forecast and your economic outlook. Jim we are all struggling to figure out why this is not possible. At cornell in schools like anniversary of Like University of illinois, they were trying to bring students back to school and do aggressive testing. I dont know what the obstacle is, but you get the feeling that until you have a better idea of how to catch this earlier, people are going to be in risk. Jonathan great to catch up as always. Jim glassman of j. P. Morgan Chase Commercial bank, i have jobs ahead of that report. We cant get a system put together, whether it is testing on the new york side or on the london side. Tom it is extraordinary when you look at the airports, particularly how well run heathrow is. They seem to do everything right. You would think they would absolutely nail it down. I am not so sure that jacob cheney that jfk can handle that. Jonathan the payrolls report coming up around the corner. We will catch up with randall on ther, joining us others with equity futures coming in 0. 2 on the s p 500. The payrolls report, your million. 1. 35 that. Is the consensus for you. The range. Wide, wide. This is bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan the payrolls report from the month of august seconds away in the United States of america. Your estimate 1. 30 5 million. Equity futures coming in eight points in the s p 500. Here is Michael Mckee. Michael the payrolls number is just about bang on with what was estimated. 1. 4 jobs created during the month. The Unemployment Rate falls more than 1 better than estimated, down to 8. 4 from 10. 2 . That is particularly good news on its face. Lets wait and see what the Participation Rate is at what happened to the labor force. The labor force Participation Rate increasing by. 3 to 61. 7. That does suggest people were coming back into the labor force. The employment to population ratio rising 1. 4 . One thing we have to keep in mind in terms of the overall hiring this month is there was a big gain incenses hiring. I am looking for the in census hiring. They hired over 200,000 employees temporarily. Those jobs will go away at the end of september. Employment in private education rising because schools are coming back. Average Hourly Earnings up . 11 on the month. We are starting to see some gains. The civilian labor force rises 968,000. The drop in the Unemployment Rate seems to be legitimate, seems to be a relatively good one. You can say this is reasonably good news. Unemployment rates, im trying to see, the on employment rates for different minority groups, the white Unemployment Rate is 7. 3 . The black Unemployment Rate, 15 , both of those down almost 2 . 10. 7, and hispanic or latin ethnicity 10. 5 . We see progress across the board. The number of people who were hired over the month is lower than it has been in recent months, and it is patted by ce n nsus hiring. The employment rate does fall. Jonathan i do not want to say anything in the high single digit is good news, but the direction of travel is brilliant. The Federal Reserve has a real end Unemployment Rate of 9. 3 , falling nicely south of that. Is it too early to say many people have been too pessimistic . During the virus bike in the month of july. That is not good news for people if that area of the economy. When you look at inspection, only 16,000 hired after 27,000 were hired in the month of july, and yet we have seen construction boom. That is because we have a shortage of construction workers ,hat will push up prices manufacturing up only 59,000 even though that has been a strength. When we look at the numbers, there are still some questions shall we say we can ask about how things are going to go. We should also look at the number i am looking to see if added only we have about 20,000 jobs in terms of provisions the past two months. No big gain from that either as we look through the numbers. Lisa i am a little confused. If you look the number of jobs added, they were pretty much in line with expectations, they were perhaps revised up or down, not big provisions from the previous month. How can the end Unemployment Rate be so much lower than what was expected, 8. 4 percent rather than the expected 9. 8 . Michael you have to look at the fact that the survey is, the one you are quoting in terms of jobs revisions, the Household Survey is a different number, and 3000 nt there rose im trying to get this right. 3,756,000. By unemployment level rose 13 million. I am a little confused by the numbers. I will back off this. I will say they are two different surveys. Jonathan 2020, we start dealing with millions. It used to be thousands. It is chaos and how much we have seen these numbers turn. Michael mckee, fantastic as always. I want to run you through the price action. It is another upside surprise on the payrolls report. I think that is five in a row. The magnitude of this one much smaller, but still an upside positive surprise. In the equity market, futures unchanged. Tom, you correctly identify the move in the longer end of the treasury curve. 30s up four basis points to 1. 4 . That Unemployment Rate is encouraging and i hope it continues. Year end, the Federal Reserve is looking pessimistic very quickly at 9. 3 . That is their forecast. Right now 8. 4. Tom it is definitely a constructive report. No question about that into september. We have seen some of the layoffs where maybe it will be a more challenging report the first week of october as well. Ive been looking at a number of things. I am not sure if we have the chart right now on median duration. This is the length of the unemployed. For those of you on radio, it was a hugely successful chart for years, as the angst of unemployment went away and then it reversed, to say the least, with a massive spike in median duration. I will get it out on twitter for those of you on Bloomberg Radio as well. One of the great strengths of bloomberg surveillance awe welcome you on radio and television is an eclectic view of economists. We now turn to the verb the former governor of the Federal Reserve system, Randall Kroszner , truly one of our experts. Your wonderful reading of the literature, how is our labor share doing. This is something we will speak to Danny Lynch Fowler danny but laborer later, getting it share of any Economic Growth forward. How is our labor share . Our labore have seen share decline over time. Some of that is due to the way labor is characterized in the data, because of course if you can make your labor income into Capital Gains income, your tax is a much lower rate. Very strong incentive to try to move things into what we wouldve called labor income come into categories we call capital income. That accounts for part of the transition. Lisa just looking at where we are in the labor market given the betterthanexpected trend, do you feel there is momentum of have not accounted for, that have failed to account for given the number of positive surprises in a row . Lisa it is great we have surprises. These numbers are of such large magnitude and weve never had something exactly like this before, that we will have more misses. We are broadly in the same range of where people thought we would be. Employment rates will spike up significantly. If the en bloc occurs, you have a major move down and a gradual slow down. Also, an additional bump because of the census workers that will make the Unemployment Rate lower this month than otherwise. If we will make a mistake i am glad things are better. Lisa we all are. This has been a brutal market and it has been moving from temporary layoffs to permanent ones. Youve been talking about cocacola and they are lines and everyone else announcing layoffs, even the company doing well. I want to go to numbers. The confusion Michael Mckee was displaying came from a very confusing set of data. Yesterday we had a changed message of accounting for jobless claims. Today there are separate survey is out. Do you feel like the data itself is more confusing than it has ever been before . Randall the fundamentals of the data are the same, but the movements in the data in the short amount of time are so much larger than we are used to. Of course there will be possibilities for misinterpretation or miss categorization. We have to take these numbers with little bit of a grain of salt, not because theres something wrong with numbers, but the movement is so large that what used to be 100,000 is a big movement. A very different kettle of fish. Debate,re is a raging and this goes more to your wheelhouse. Over the years, the debate is on the rate needed given the Interest Rate within our fiscal policy. This is the crying worry about those looking at our deficit build up. Give us your sense of the growth rate we need given the potential Interest Rate we may experience. Are we near a point of worry or do we need to worry in 2025 . Randall in the longer run it is a challenge. Right now it seems the markets are willing to finance countries that have astonishingly high deficits, whether it is the u. S. , japan, number of other countries. Emerging Market Countries are facing enormous challenges. Some of the large countries like the u. S. Are very fortunate at the moment to be seen as relatively safe. Theres a lot of money. The challenge is at some point the chickens will come home to roost. Some will say can they really pay all of this off . We do not know what will trigger that, but we think we should be worrying about that in the intermediate to longer run. Tom the budget policy priorities go back to 1792 and say we have a confidence that the american system has always developed a growth rate over the Interest Rate the glide past. There is little bit of angst that that may end. How do you feel about that . Randall that is a concern. Zero,st rates are around even the 10 year rate being less than 1 . That is unprecedented. In many other countries we are seeing longterm rates be negative. Obviously, that makes a lot of fiscal spending much more feasible when you have zero or negative rates. When those rates go up, that is when the challenge will come in. That will be a few years off but we should not be complacent and say we can just borrow forever and it is no problem. With that kind of attitude, you will not be borrowing for long in europe. Lisa people keep saying that. We have not seen it. I wonder Going Forward if the fed is out of tools to improve the labor market from here . Randall you cannot rely on the fed for everything. Thele should not rely on fed to cure all ills. There are things the fed can provide support for. It can provide a lot of liquidity to markets. When there was market dysfunction in february and march, they were very helpful. Right now it is much more of a transition. The shock of covid is a fundamental shock to this countrys economy. It is much more fundamental than what happened in the Global Financial crisis or 9 11. Some parts of the economy will not be coming back and we have to acknowledge there will be a position and that will take time. The fed cannot directly address it. Tom thank you so much. We are thrilled he could join us today on this jobs day. We finish this our strong. You can do that with the good guests we have. We will come back to Michael Mckee. We do this with three basis points higher, four points in the 30 year bond. Dollar stronger a little bit. What is your observation . Michael a couple of things. Let me clarify what happened with the employment rate. I finally got my numbers straight. The Household Survey found 3,000,700 56,000 people got jobs , 2,788,000 people lost jobs. The Unemployment Rate falls because the labor force also increased. We have interesting numbers in terms of government. 258 thousand jobs added on the federal side, but 238,000 were temporary census workers. You take this 1. 4 million and you will have to subtract 238,000 to get a number Going Forward. In september. S in leisure and hospitality 134,000 people were hired, but they are still down 2. 5 million jobs. Overall, 24. 2 Million People said they were unable to work because their companies were not open or had closed permanently. There is still a big hole. 24. 3 of people at work work from home. Lisa that is shocking and not entirely surprising considering what we have seen over the past six months. Put this all together. Does that mean next month, without the distortion of the census workers or perhaps that we have to be in october, we could see the rate go up from 8. 4 . Michael we certainly could. We do not know what is going to happen with the virus and other jobs lost. You mentioned earlier a lot of layoffs are coming. They may not hit until october, so it might be november before we see that. There is definitely a chance we could see it go back up again. Tom thank you so much. We say good morning to you on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television. Jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. I just spoke to randall klausner. We now speak with Danny Blanchflower of dartmouth college. I want to go away from the wage dynamic this time around and go to your Important Research moving on unhappiness and age. Our happiness has been shattered in this pandemic. Explain to us the dampening impact of a pandemic on how a Society Moves forward to the end of that pandemic. Danny great question joy we have evidence around the world that there are two big things. When we have a lockdown, we have a huge collapse in wellbeing and happiness around the world of the scale we have never seen before. The office of National Statistics has attracted. One of the things we are learning now is people have , to think little bit of a big drop in adjustment taking place. People are adjusted to the fact of the new world. This is a major shock to people speaking and behavior. Why it matters to bloomberg listeners is whether they shock this shock tells us Something Different is coming down the road. Are there going to be Behavioral Changes . I was talking about what might just said. Theyre all kinds of things you can look at. I was looking at google trends. Just put the word unemployment in. The thing has started to pick back up again. Happiness rose. People are adapting. I think what you see in the data is people are fearful, and the question is are they going to state different behavior Going Forward. We have seen a rise in depression and loneliness. We have seen them starting to adjust back again, but the question is there is still a big gap and we have never seen anything like that. Tom are we ready for our new nominal gdp . If we have subdued inflation, and lets call it subdued or pretty good Economic Growth, as a society, are we ready for that . Danny i think we are potentially ready, but this is a huge shock to which people are adjusting. If you think about sync your guest or saying to a governor of the bank of england or a fed president , where we going from here, they will have to say to you it depends, it depends on are people going to change their behavior, what will happen to the virus, is a vaccine coming, and our people confident about what is coming . If you have never seen a shop downwards to happiness like this before, are you going to start thinking it is happened once, it will happen again . Changing. Is your previous guest was right to sate we have never seen anything quite like this before. Forecasting things is difficult. Lisa what is the longterm effect on a potential lost generation, the idea that this 15 to 25yearold cohort is facing Unemployment Rates close to 20 and facing a labor market that is decimated . Is probably the most important question. Discussed exactly this point. We are talking about workers being on furlough, workers being on temporary layoff, but a big chunk of kids around the world left school in june. They graduated from college and we know graduated from college into a bad market is tough, but especially kids coming out of high school. High school dropouts. There are huge social consequences to that. There wasaction a civilian conservation corps. Nobody is taking much action for these kids. I think this is going to be a stalled out, huge problem for us. We try to tackle it in the 1980s, a kind of went away. I think that will be the number one problem Going Forward. What will he do about these young people, are we going to give them a sense of hope or impose hopelessness . What will he do about them by november . Lisa especially given the fact we are facing a backdrop of people not being able to socialize and depression and all of the emotional issues. There are no jobs. Entrylevel jobs have been in services sectors, whether to work behind the counter. What jobs will replace those . Danny it is difficult to know. We have seen a big growth in delivery drivers, we have seen amazon and walmart and others with Home Delivery of food. I think it is hard to know the answer to that. It is a great question labor economists are always asking. Think about in 1990. If you asked me what jobs will replace those in 2020 and the answer is i have no idea. Markets will fix these things, but we will have to help people through this transition, and the fact that stimulus stopped at the end of july in the United States, no one has talked about that. At some point the lack of money coming into the economy, the lack of spending will reflect itself bit labor market, which is a lagging indicator. These are tough ones. I think Going Forward it will be hard, unless we do something dramatically for them. Tom one final question. Morning,arlier this always controversial, i would labor her a liberal economist, she says we have to get it going. A 6 trillionis aid for the United States of america. What is the Danny Blanchflower statistic . I do not want to get you in trouble at dartmouth, but what is your stimulus estimate that would be appropriate . Danny the answer is what we have learned in the past is the issue is doing too little, not too much. Claudia has been pushing these kind of issues and has been good on it. The answer is several trillion will have to be used. Unemploymenta. 5 we are still at 8. 5 unemployment. These are historically high numbers. In march we were at 3. 5 . Answer is doing too little is clearly the problem. It is hard to see what the consequences are of doing too much. If you did 6 trillion, what would it do . It would boost the economy like crazy. At some point you would have to do something about it. Doing too much is much better than doing too little. Tom we are out of time. Danny blanchflower of dartmouth college. Lisa, what is your observation on this historic day . Lisa the number of people in the United States who are seeing permanent job losses rose to 3. 4 million americans, the highest since 2013. That number creeping up. Youve been talking about this. Initially it was temporary layoffs and furloughs. These are increasingly permanent. What is the influence on the market . Tom i go back to median duration, which is the one statistic that jumped out at me. You have the census angle that Michael Mckee explained. Joe weisenthal on the census specifics on twitter as well. What is important to me is the median duration has not come down. Maybe it will not coming months, but you look at the layoffs at airlines and you have to wonder where we are in three days. Lisa so hard to talk about these numbers. This is the thing Randall Kroszner was talking about. How do you look at data when the fluctuation is measured in millions . How do you extrapolate out over a longer term. Tom well said. Round trip over the last four to five days. Futures up six. The 30 year bond back up to 1. 40 . The 10 year yield. 6 592. We continue forward. In the next 60 minutes, a conversation with lawrence kudlow. Our Jonathan Ferro with the gentleman from the white house. Thank you for listening on radio. Thank you for watching on television. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Lookentertainmentour experience xfinity x1. Its the easiest way to watch live tv and all your favorite streaming apps. Plus, x1 also includes peacock premium at no extra cost. This baby is the total package. It streams exclusive originals, the full peacock movie library, complete collections of iconic tv shows, and more. Yup, the best really did get better. Magnificent. Xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No strings attached. Jonathan from london and new york for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. Equity futures positive on the s p 500. Negative on the nasdaq after another upside surprise on the payrolls report. Good morning this friday morning. Here is Michael Mckee. Michael the sweepstakes winner today, the Consensus Forecast for economist. 1,000,370 5000 jobs were created in august, actually restored, lets not say created. 1,350,000 was the forecast. 1,000,027 thousand privatesector sector jobs created. The employment rate is the big surprise. 8. 4 . It had been 10. 2 . Economists expected it to fall only to 9. 8 . What happened . Jobs,700 56,000 people got while 2 million 708,000 job