Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20240713

Lockdown in that country, and Risk Appetite builds. Asian stocks had for their best day since 2008. Equity futures point to a positive open in europe, as well, after an incredibly positive day yesterday. Just under an hour away from the start of cash equity trading on that continent in europe and over in the u. K. Lets look at futures after yesterday, the dow put up a up ad game the dax put record gain, almost 1000 points yesterday. It is pretty astonishing that we well. Tures up today, as i should say, the dow yesterday in the u. S. Put up a record gain of sorts, the biggest gain in the Dow Jones Industrial index average since 1933 and yet, you see futures on the s p and dow jones positive, nasdaq futures down a little bit, but they also saw a big gain in tech stocks yesterday, the nasdaq jumping yesterday about 10 . A lot of indexes yesterday in the u. S. , jumping 10 . The nasdaq, really just joining the bunch. Our top story is the stimulus packages across europe and in the u. S. What is going on on in washington. The white house and democrats have reached an agreement over a 2 trillion stimulus plan. Full details havent been released, but Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell says it is historic and will deliver relief to americans. At last, we have a deal. After days of intense discussions, the senate has reached a bipartisan agreement on a historic relief package for this pandemic. It will rush new resources onto the front lines of our Nations Health care fight and it will inject trillions of dollars of cash into the economy as fast as americanto help workers, families, Small Businesses, and industries make it through this disruption. Matt for more on this story, lets get to Annmarie Hordern out of new york city. How close are we hear and what does this package look like . Annmarie we are very close. They said they will vote on it this morning. Mitch mcconnell and the senate the Senate Democrat leader Chuck Schumer address the floor and are eager to vote on it tomorrow. Ive been seeing tweets of reports saying Steve Mnuchin is happy with it and the president will sign this deal. It is light on the details, but people close to the matters speaking to our d. C. Bureau is that it is worth more than 2 trillion. 250 billion will go to one employment, 800 30 for hospitals, and approximately 50 billion for Airlines Part of the 500 billion chunk for corporate finally, the direct checks to americans, 1200 to most americans is said to be included. We will get more information in morning. Matt we are basicallymatt seeing some bailout funds, as well as aid workers who dont have jobs. A 2 trillion total. Will we see restrictions on companies that get this money . Will they be able to take money from the government and still lay off workers . Thearie this is one of most contentious issues with the gop and the democrats about this bill. The 500 billion that would go to operations that need it like restaurants and hotels, and airlines, the democrat said it was a slush fund. It haddnt think significant oversight. It seems they won that battle. Itt know the details, but might be similar to what tarp was in 2008. The democrats said the airlines have been on a buyback bonanza. Off want them to not lay workers or those who are furloughed, continued to pay them, but we dont know the exact details but considering the democrats have signed off on this come you can imagine there will be significant oversight on that government aid. Matt looking forward to the tliv today covering this. With get to the markets Mark Cranfield from our bloomberg mliv blog out of singapore. Kind ofrst off, what impetus is a deal out of the u. S. Going to give in terms of global stocks . Bit. Quite a that isei up 8 , and the second day of huge gains in japan, most of asia is up by large margins. The msci asia up more than 5 , one of the biggest days it has had so very impressive performance across asia. Idea thatto enjoy the the United States will receive this package. For the s p 500 futures, it has been a more choppy day. Earlier, it was struggling to gain ground, because there was another report saying the u. S. Would lift tariffs but only for 90 days and traders were hoping all the tariffs would be taken off in one go. We also have the governor of california, who was saying it looks as though california will for quite alockdown bit longer than other parts of the country. Istainly the rest of asia very happy that the United States is getting together on a deal. Looks like have what a pretty risk on day today. Gold is down again today. Im not sure what kind of risk indicator that has been of late, also looking weaker against the dollar. You can buy more than ¥111 to the dollar. That has been a great risk indicator. What is the story with the japanese currency . Emissions we got still troubleve still got with the basis trades, a funding issue. For u. S. High demand dollar. The bank of japan is supplying dollars to japanese banks, but obviously not quite enough. They are still needing to go into the market to buy more dollars and that is pushing up the Dollar Yen Exchange rate. It is having quite a strange effect on the japanese bond market. People wont give up their jgbs, even though the bank of japan is trying to buy them. They want to use jgbs as collateral to raise u. S. Dollars. In thef dislocations Japanese Funding market, partly being shown in the dollar yen movements and in the bond well. , as it will be a few weeks before that clears up, then we may get a fair picture of where the yen stands. Matt is there a shortage of dollars globally . Is this a problem in this crisis . Tracy alloway writes a little about it, and i wonder if that is the financial crisis we face this time around. Shes written a very good page on the mliv today. Well worth reading. That seems to be the common denominator. People using dollars as leverage to going to risk assets. It was a good period toward the end of last year. People seemed confident that risk assets have further to go, a lot of leverage in the system and the dollar was the main currency being used and now, we are seeing a dramatic pullback in that. People are trying to raise cash. Most of it needs to be done through the dollar, so we are seeing these funding situations go through extreme levels against the euro, the yen, the british pounds. Weve evenworld, seen implied shortterm rates in singapore go below zero, which is very unusual. Everywhere, there are indications people are straining to get dollars in time and the fact we are coming to the end of the First Quarter is just making it worse. We are making it through this period with the help of Central Banks, but there are major issues in the plumbing of the money markets and whether or not people can get the money they need. It will be a while yet before this is sorted out, but people will probably remember this crisis about being a shortage of dollars compared to the credit crisis we had in 20082009. Matt lets get back to the plainvanilla stock story. Your question of the day on the mliv blog today focuses on the rally we saw yesterday. I think it was the strongest rally in the Dow Jones Industrial average since 1933. It was the biggest rally ever germany. Ax in question of the day, was tuesday a bear rally or end of route . What are you hearing . Going to pass that to mr. Mark cudmore, who has written at length about it today on the blog and says no. He says you get a lot of very severe bear rallies in the major market downturn. This will just be one of them. This is not the end of the weakness for american stocks. There will be more to come, and if you look back at 2008, 2009, it took several weeks before we saw a real bottoming in american markets, in particular. We had lots of rallies, market going back down again. To digest all of what has happened in the last month is going to take a very long time. There is still a lot of economic information how is the economy really doing in the United States . How high will unemployment go . Will it hits 30 as some have suggested . How Many Airlines will need to be bailed out . There are some of the questions about the real economy we dont really know yet. So much is guesswork. As the information comes through, even the size of the stimulus might not be enough to cover all of the risks in the american economy. There are a lot of questions unanswered and for that reason, it is very early to say this is the end of the bear market in the United States. Matt all right, definitely seems like it would be a little early to me, as well, but we are getting a lot of interesting news across the ticker in terms of stimulus from the u. S. To germany and really, around the world. Mark cranfield out of singapore, thank you for your time this morning. Next, speaking of news, norways Biggest Oil Producer says it will cut Capital Expenditure by 1 5, 20 percent. Our interview with the cfo on ecuador is next. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to bloomberg market the european open. The open minutes from of cash trading and seeing futures up once again, even after the historic rally that we saw yesterday. The question of the day on the mliv blog, was that a bear market rally or is everything fixed now . Overwhelmingly, the answers are so far, looks like it was a huge bear market rally. Its capitallashing expenditure. Norways biggest crude producer will cut by about 20 and lower exploration activity to about 1 billion in response to a plunging oil prices amid the coronavirus outbreak. Joining us from oslo is the cfo of equinor. Lars, thanks for your time. Let me first ask you how this is affecting your workers at equinor. How many people are not coming to work . Are you going to be laying people off . Of all, good morning and thank you for having me. This action plan takes place today to strengthen our financials and is in the interest of all employees. As part of this plan. A lot of our workers are working from home as a response to the coronavirus situation, and we are following the recommendations from norwegian authorities. Matt how about the investors . Should they still be expecting payouts Going Forward . For example, loki want to scrap dividends as you tighten your belt here wont you want to scrap dividends as you tighten your belt here . To takeis initiative forceful measures to address the drop in the commodity prices, especially oil prices over the last couple of weeks, and we are also announcing today that we will be cash flow neutral the rest of the year, which is a very strong number and there is no news really to the dividend duringthat we announced the weekend we are postponing until further notice the Share Buyback program as a response to the current situation. Is your expectation for the oil price to come back soon . Do you expect a vshaped recovery in the economy that will bring the oil price back with it or are we looking at 20s and 30s as far as brent crude for the rest of 2020 . I think this is the billion dollar question for many of us. I think it is actually too early to say how this is going to unfold. The main reason is, how this coronavirus situation is going to unfold. Im very happy to see governments are addressing this health issue and that the same time are addressing the packages to support their industries in their different countries. One thing we can do as a company and that isilient more than ever important to be resilient in a situation like this. Matt have you ever seen anything like this before . Youve got simultaneously a drop pandemic, as to a well as a price war between two of the biggest players in the market. How long do you think it will last . Lars this is an unprecedented situation and it is very liquid, and not easy to interpret how this will unfold. Thats why the only way can do is a company is to follow recommendations from Health Authorities to help out in that to the level that we can and what we are doing today with the action plan. Matt Lars Christian bacher, thanks so much for joining us after tightening your belt, cutting expenses, cutting by 1 5 to deal with the to stop the put spread of the coronavirus as well as the price war, a double whammy for the oil industry. Also a difficult time for politicians having to work through the night in some cases. They wont be able to do that in parliament as of wednesday night. The u. K. Is Closing Parliament on wednesday night, and for the time being ahead of that, as well. It could bee reopened in april according to a person familiar, but for now, it looks Like Parliament will not longer be meeting at westminster. Coming up, edging closer to a bailout. The eus finance ministers in agreement to pass a package helping the countrys hit hardest by the coronavirus, but not there yet. We will discuss. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to bloomberg market the european open. Were about 40 minutes, a little less from the start of trading and it looks like it could be another risk on day after the bear market fireworks we saw yesterday. , theop story in the u. S. White house and democrats have reached an agreement on a more than 2 trillion stimulus package. Details havent been released, but negotiators were working on a package that includes billions to companies, as well as billions to states, billions in aides to Small Businesses and checks for most americans of more than 1000 apiece. Joining us, chief equity strategist at morgan stanley. Now that we have the u. S. Package almost in place and so much stimulus coming out of european governments, at least germany and the u. K. , does it in riske the slump assets is over, or was what we saw yesterday really just a bear market rally . We do think theyve made an awful lot of progress. The adage is when policymakers start to panic, as an investor, you can stop panicking. We think we are forming some sort of floor. Be furtherprobably tricky days ahead, but ultimately what weve been has beens the policy so large and brought across the are working to reduce volatility, stabilize markets, and it puts quite a decent floor. Our message to clients is if you have anything other than a i. E. Over the next three to six months, acid markets or risk markets will go higher and the policy response has been a necessary part of that. Cant fix the economic issues, but it can fix some of the tail risks and downward spirals within equity markets which seem to have stopped. Matt what about that . You have a lot of experience in these markets. He worked through the financial crisis coming you worked european equities through the sovereign debt crisis. It turned into a financial problem . Are you seeing liquidities that dont look like they are being addressed . Does the dollar shortage were you . Worry you . Did, iti think it worried the markets the last couple of weeks. Weve had the largest onemonth decline in Global Equities, the largest ever spike in volatility. There was an awful lot of risk out there. I think that was the catalyst for the policymakers to move so to try and so strongly and draw a line in the sand, and i think they have been able to do that. If we look at u. S. Fixedincome markets over the last two to three days since the upsize qe and included Corporate Bonds in their package, i think for us, whereas a critical moment the policymakers got from behind the curve to perhaps ahead of the curve. That is what investors were looking for. Put that together with the packages, the u. S. Fiscal package coming down the line, that is an awful lot of ammunition. I think there is liquidity. Perhaps too much leverage and not enough liquidity has been resolved. What this doesnt do is give us virus andear on the economic earnings numbers. There is a lot of bad news in the price we were at 24 hours ago. Matt is there a problem im looking at a lot of companies here that were not junk last month and are junk now. Even as governments and Central Banks extending liquidity lifelines, is it going to help companies that have been downgraded to junk . Graham not necessarily. Well, not directly. The trick is ultimately, for the last few weeks, the portfolio rebalancing effect has not worked. Historically, authorities will come in and buy the least risky arets so high yield bonds not included in the feds Corporate Bonds Purchase Program that if you can stabilize and turn invest in and turn investor sentiment, the fed buying treasuries, some of that money will start to move into the highyield space and if we can get a sustained turn in Investor Confidence with highyield in double digits, that starts to help. Matt thanks so much for your time. Graham secker, chief European Equity strategist at morgan stanley. Coming up, we will speak exclusively to the ceo of btb. Good morning oh no, here comes the neighbor probably to brag about how amazing his Xfinity Customer Service is. Im mike, im so busy. Good thing xfinity has twohour appointment windows. They have night and weekend appointments too. Hes here. Bill . Karolyn . Nope no, just a couple of rocks. Download the my account app to manage your appointments making todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Ill pass. Matt welcome back to the european open, 30 minutes from the start of cash equity trading on what can be another up day after the incredible rally we saw yesterday. Lets get to new york city, because bloombergs Annmarie Hordern is standing by with an exclusive interview. Annmarie im pleased to be joined by the btb ceo and former ambassador to the australia and the united kingdom, so he can speak to the polic

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