Lots of bars to the upside and downside. Greater than 1 decline. September calm, we are seeing a return to the big volatility. More than 4 to swings of 1 up or down. Both the bulls and the bears are buying for dominance in the month of october. Right now we do have a decline for the month, down more than 2 . The bears are winning. In october, wey, are seeing investors go toward havens. Take a look at this chart of the 10 year yield. You are seeing a decline of 14 basis points at 1. 52 . Onwe have stocks declining the month, we have bond yields also declining, telling us investors are seeking the safety of bonds. Finally, where we are seeing underperformance on the day, the nasdaq biotech index down 1. 9 . Growthiere of the indexes out there. Investors selling those. We also have the socks down sharply the sox down thehe worst day since chip index especially sensitive to china since the chip index is embedded in china. The possibility of the white house blacklisting eight tech firms. That would be a blow to the chip space and one of the worst on the day. Down 3. 7 in nvidia. Another weekday for chips. David thanks, abigail doolittle, i think. Im not sure. Now lets take a look at stories that may be moving markets. Shawn donnan in washington on the buildup to trade moves. On primechandra minister johnsons increasingly difficult path to the brexit deal. Lets start with shawn. Are we moving to the place where we can get a deal with the developments . Shawn the idea was the sides to get to some kind of partial truths and stop any further escalation. The move by the Trump Administration yesterday to blacklist these eight technology companies, some of the big new giants, the new champions for a advocates ine tech areas like Artificial Intelligence and video surveillance. Companies like these are Big Companies that are being hit by the u. S. In this move. That sends a terrible signal going into these tops. David one of my questions is why yesterday. Knowing the delegation was coming over, this goes to the heart of the 2025 program that has been so important to president xi and also brings in human rights issues. Why wait until the eve of negotiations to bring it up . Shawn weve been asking that question to folks in the administration. They insist it was on a separate track to folks in the trade negotiations. The announcement was ready to go yesterday. I have a hard time believing that. A lot of people in washington have a hard time believing that. This is something a lot of hops on capitol hill, people like marco rubio has been pushing for. This may be something to appease them and any potential criticism of the Trump Administration on a china deal. If it is that, it may also derail any potential truce. David a lot report on this week. Thanks a much to shawn donnan in washington. Now lets go to emma chandra in london. Prime minister Boris Johnson seems to be having trouble with his brexit deal. Emma he really does seem to be having trouble, saying now a deal seems almost impossible. This after a call between Prime MinisterBoris Johnson and Angela Merkel. We got a sense of what happened in the call from Boris Johnsons team. They said Angela Merkel said Northern Ireland would need to remain in the Eu Customs Union if any deal was to be struck that prevented the reimposition of a hard border on the island of ireland. Boris johnson responded, saying that makes any deal impossible because it would mean a different set of arrangements for Northern Ireland. That means we are now going to see a blame game emerge between the u. K. And the eu leaders as to why a deal might not be possible. Boris johnson and his team blaming the eu, saying they are failing to make any kind of concessions. It had been hoped they would get to some sort of agreement in principle by the eu summit happening next week to allow for an orderly exit by the end of the month. The Market Reaction has been fairly start. If you take a look at the pound and how it is trading against to. 8 ,ar, falling. 7 currently trading at its lowest level in a month. We have seen the pound fall below its 50 day moving average. In terms of equities, both sides of the atlantic, the ftse at a a much better position than other european indexes. David if you cannot get a deal, what happens next . I understand theres an act of parliament that says you cannot go out without a deal. Are they prepared for the possibility that as of the end of this month, they would be outside the eu . Emma that has been interesting because we heard from the government today in the u. K. On their planning, their preparation for a no deal exit. The minister in charge of no deal brexit planning issue to 156 page report. There are a number of challenges should the u. K. Leave the European Union without a deal. That would include shortages of fruits and vegetables. It would force drug bakers drugmakers to stockpile medicine, and deploy 18 oil tankers to ensure energy supply. Whether or not we go to a no deal exit is contentious because of that act passed by lawmakers in september to try and prevent the u. K. Leaving without a deal. It would force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension. David highstakes indeed. Thanks to emma chandra for her reporting from london. Coming up later, susan rice, former National Security advisor under president obama is here to tell us about what her experience can teach us about syria and other global hops not. Live from new york, this is bloomberg. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. We turned out a Mark Crumpton for bloomberg first word news. Mark the battle over the impeachment inquiry into President Trump continues on capitol hill. House democrats say they will subpoena the u. S. Ambassador to the eu to testify before a house panel. After the state department barred him from appearing it is scheduled deposition. Adam schiff spoke to reporters. The failure to produce this witness, the failure to produce these documents, we consider yet additional strong evidence of obstruction of the constitutional functions of congress. Messages released last week reveal conversations between sutherland and other u. S. Diplomats who are intermediaries as President Trump urged ukraine to investigate joe bidens families. He is a Hotel Executive who donated 1 million to president s inaugural committee. The Supreme Court appears to be divided over whether a federal law protects gay employees from being fired because of their sexual orientation. Todays hourlong session suggested gay rights advocates have the chance to win the vote of neil gorsuch along with the courtss four liberal members. Separately, the court is considering whether the job bias law known as title vii outlaws lgbt discrimination. There is still confusion over the u. S. Policy on turkey. Late sunday, the president announced he would not stand in the way of a turkish incursion. Republicans accused the president of abandoning kurdish allies in syria who have been fighting the islamic state. Turkey sees kurds as a security threat. Boris johnson is sounding pessimistic about a brexit deal. The Prime Minister told Angela Merkel that an agreement is essentially impossible. He wants the eu to drop demands for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . David picking up on that story marcus told us about about syria , the white house shop friends and foes alike when it announced the United States troops would not stand in the way of Turkish Forces if and when they move into kurdish areas in northwest syria. We welcome our guest from the center for strategic studies where he founded the turkey project. Welcome. It is good to have you with us. Lets start with turkey. Are they prepared to go into this region. Why havent they done it so far after the president said we will not stand in your way . Two days have gone by since the conversation between trump clearing the way for a turkish intervention. It may be because erdogan has been out of the country. He is in serbia and due back anytime. ,aybe he will make a decision or maybe he is confused by the trump tweets that seem to contradict each other. David explained from the turkish point of view why it is so important to move into this area. Why is it critical for turkish interests . And other turkish leaders have explained, there are two goals. The kurdishsh away syrian away from the border, may be up to 20 miles as trump and erdogan have talked about, maybe even further. Ypg as agards the component of what it has been fighting for 30 years. The second goal is to resettle as much as 2 million Syrian Refugees from the 4 million in turkey in syria to relieve the syria to relieve the pressure on turkey itself. That is a massive undertaking. It the second cannot be done without the first. As of now, even the first has not been done. Thed on late sunday, when president announced this, it caused a real reaction considering what their apparent policy is, and particularly from some polyp from some the republicans who support the president. Lindsey graham was vociferous in singapores it was wrong. This is what he said, in part. Defeated. Not the biggest lie being told by the administration is isis is defeated. The caliphate is destroyed, but there are thousands of fighters that know the caliphate would not of been destroyed without the kurds. David part of the reason President Trump is saying we can pull u. S. Troops out is that it is over. Who is right . Lindsey graham or the president . I think Lindsey Graham is right. We saw this film before. At the end of december, erdogan and trump had a conversation. Trump announced a withdraw from Northern Syria because the fighting with isis is over, and then Lindsey Graham and other republican senators, along with pushed trumpparts, and forced him to reverse course and agreed to keep troops there. It remains to be seen whether pressure, including support from mitch mcconnell, will force trump to do the same thing again. David perhaps economic pressure. President trump may be backpedaling in the midst of all of the opposition from republicans. He says we can control turkey. We have done it with economic pressure. This is part of what he had to say. If they do anything outside of what we would think does what we think of as humane, they could suffer the wrath of an extremely decimated economy. I have done it once. I did it with pastor brunson. The currency fell at record levels and lots of other things happened. David is the president right about that . It is not just the troops in the northeast of syria, but also possible economic pressure that might deter him stepping across the border . Bulent this is what is so confusing from the turkish point of view. On the one hand, he seems to be other, hee in, on the is saying if you cross a limit i will crush you economically. It is not clear what trump is saying to the turks, especially as he also said he will be hosting erdogan at the white house on november 13. Trump has done this before. Through measures he undertook last year, he forced down the turkish currency and the dollar and caused the financial crisis, a mini financial crisis. He could do it, but is the point to work out a deal with turkey or to bring its to its knees . It is not clear. David thank you for joining us. ,till ahead, Richard Curtin director of the university of Michigan Consumer survey will join bloombergs mike mckee at the National Association of business economics meeting in denver. That is next and this is bloomberg. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. An off day in the equity markets. They are off of their lows but still we are down 1 or more. The dow jones and the s p 500. Over in bonds, people are buying bonds. Up across the board, also in european bonds. A risk off day, apparently in response to some of the ruminations about the trade negotiations later this week in washington. There was a blacklisting going on that made people nervous about how this trade negotiations will proceed. In the meantime, the National Association for business economics is meeting in denver. Our International Policy and economics correspondent Michael Mckee is there with an important participant. Mike . Michael we are here with Richard Curtin, the director of the university of michigan survey. You know the sentiment surveys we get twice a month. Never in my memory, and this is a long time, have people been paying so much attention to Consumer Sentiment. We want to know what people think about the economy, about trade wars, about impeachment, and particularly about recession. The question i have asked a lot of fit officials, the data do not suggest we are going into a recession. Wall street is pricing a recession. Can we talk ourselves into a recession . Richard i would not go that far, but i would tell you most consumers and traders are uncertain. Uncertainty draws their attention to negative events. At negativeing events for its implication to the overall economy. Since this is a period of uncertainty has lasted quite a , most people are driven towards examining almost every negative factor that could impact their own lives. That was appointee made in your presentation. People do not look at the national numbers. They look at their own experience. Richard what it was most important to them is their local community. What jobs are their own skill set. Gdp, whichlation and is quite a stretch, there are variations across the country how vibrant the economy is. Andumers pick up on that they change how their decisions from spending we have seen Consumer Sentiment numbers rollover a little bit. You have indications they will go down further . Richard i do not think theyre going to go down anytime soon. Now is the time when consumers who are clearly vulnerable to big news that is negative. They have handled all of these andr moves on trade tariffs so forth, but we are now many more vulnerable spot where some big shock could be amplified by consumers rather quickly. From your michael experience, how closely does sentiment track spending . Is there a chance people pull back and stop spending . Are 120 billion households. 120 million households. They do not have to pull back to have a big impact. Our data indicates people pull back when there uncertain about the future, especially through discretionary purchases. I expect they will do that, but we have had mixed news. Homes have not performed that well. Vehicles are flat. This represents the kind of uncertainty we will have. They have not taken that second think we will be in serious trouble and curtail their spending. Michael talking with Richard Curtin, the director of the university of michigan survey. One last question. We have a minute left. Is there a political aspect . Can you tell us what this might mean for the 2020 elections . Richard that is a good question. I do not have an answer to that. Trends, andat past i have done that, the level of sentiment today would be consistent with the incumbent winning. This is hardly a normal situation, and for the first time in 50 years, we have seen a huge partisan divide in Consumer Sentiment between democrats and republicans. I think the key group is the independence and how they change in the future. The other thing i would say is that when we look at the data, it is the First Quarter of the Election Year that is critical. That is ahead of us. Michael we will keep an eye out for that. Thanks. Richard curtin, director of the university of michigan survey. David thanks a much to mike mckee in denver. At 2 30 this afternoon, jay powell, the chairman of the federal reserve, will be giving his remarks at that conference in denver of the and ave. Ofthe eve of a 13th round u. S. China trade negotiations, we will talk with david dollar of the Brookings Institution. Live from new york, this is bloomberg. Scarlet from new york, this is from new york, this is balance of power. First word news, we go to mark. Mark they say they will subpoena European Union ambassador after he did not show up for a deposition today and the democratimpeachment investigation. Engel,hiff, and elliot and Elijah Cummings say they consider the noshow today to be quote, obstruction of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The state department told sunland not to testify. Couples in six states are suing federal immigration officials saying they were told to come to marriage interviews that ended up being traps for deportation. Socalled green card interviews are a crucial step for obtaining u. S. E status in the it calls for couples to demonstrate was intimacy of their marriage as part of the first step. Iran says it could