robert wood, chief uk economist, pantheon macroeconomics. itjoins me now. no change expected today, why not? it joins me now. no change expected today, why not? good mornin: expected today, why not? good morning why — expected today, why not? good morning why not? _ expected today, why not? good morning why not? inflation - expected today, why not? good morning why not? inflation is i morning why not? inflation is just back to the bank of england 2% target for top within that headline inflation, inflation with services, eating out, restaurants, all sorts of household services, going to out to the cinema and so on prices of these things are rising still really quickly. so yesterday we saw they were up 5.7% year on year. with that rate of increase headline inflation is not going to stay at 2% very long.— at 296 very long. the next decision _ at 296 very long. the next decision by _ at 296 very long. the next decision by the _ at 296 very long. the next decision by the bank- at 296 very long. the next decision by the bank of i at 296 very long. the next - decision by the bank of england is first of august after today. many bank of england watchers like your good self i understand i'm not convinced it will even move then. what circumstances do we believe not to have changed by august? again, inflation for services, which is really important for the bank of england, this is the bank of england, this is the piece of an —— inflation they can control, things made in the uk, services is one of them is running quite hot, so they need to wait for that to slow down and they need to see wage growth slowdown, private sector wage growth is running 6%, growing nearly 6% a year, again it is too high for their comfort. it is having to wait a little longer to see these things slow down. just enough for it to begin easing back interest rates. we had hoped and they hoped i'm sure that would come sooner, in the early summer, but inflation has held up summer, but inflation has held up pretty high, wage growth has been pretty strong over the last couple of months, it is having to wait longer. by august or september it will start to see the data it needs to be able to reduce interest rates. ~ ., to be able to reduce interest rates. ~ . ., ., ., rates. we are waiting for that wa . e rates. we are waiting for that wage growth _ rates. we are waiting for that wage growth to _ rates. we are waiting for that wage growth to slow- rates. we are waiting for that wage growth to slow down i rates. we are waiting for that l wage growth to slow down and the services sector in relation to slow down as well. september is when most people are betting right now, still a bit of course, do you think it will be just one interest rate cut this year, or could we see another one squeezed in before christmas?— one squeezed in before christmas? ., ~ christmas? no, i think we will likely see _ christmas? no, i think we will likely see more _ christmas? no, i think we will likely see more than - christmas? no, i think we will likely see more than one, - christmas? no, i think we will| likely see more than one, once the bank of england starts reducing interest rates and is comfortable to do that because it sees wage growth and inflation coming down, it will be able to ease a number of times, interest rates 5.52 5% a high relative to where we see them for the past two —— ten years and it could come down a fair bit from there once inflation is finally sustainably returned to the 2% target. once they start cutting probably in august or september, my view is september, my view is september, they will cut again by the end of the year and early next year as well. robert wood, chief uk economist, pantheon macroeconomics. thank you forjoining us. next to the united states, and a special report on the impact of inflation on consumers and voters. as americans look ahead to a potentially seismic presidential election, many had hoped the us federal reserve would have started cutting interest rates already. but last week's strong jobs report and still—high inflation means america's central bank is likely to leave rates unchanged, at a more than two decade high. and even though the us economy is growing at a rate which is the envy of others, many americans don't feel it as michelle fleury now reports from the swing state of pennsylvania. on the outskirts of philadelphia, stacy ellis tells me she has had it with rising prices. inflation has raised my stress level. i'm constantly trying to figure out ways to budget and prioritise and come up with more money, and it is just tough. it is a debbie downer. it kills your spirit a little. a single mum working two jobs while going to school, she still can't make ends meet. i make too much to receive any sort of assistance from the state but i don't make enough to be able to survive. what is the most expensive thing? rent. transportation. groceries. those are the top three most expensive things. i live by a budget, i budget, budget, budget. and i prioritise. prices are slowly beginning to come down. are you seeing that? no. i haven't seen it or felt it. i am looking for it, though. the cost—of—living crisis is pushing her into debt. i have had to do things i wouldn't do normally. i've had to get credit cards, sometimes payday advance loans, just to be able to make ends meet. many americans are fed up with higher prices, the frustration is spilling over on social media. this is what $70 gets you at walmart. that's it. $70. i make over three times the federal minimum wage and i cannot afford to live. in an election year, this spells trouble for the incumbent. prices are up around 20% sincejoe biden took office. if you are an everyday consumer you're spending about $,iooo every month on the same goods and services, you know, today that would cost you an extra $208 than back then, and that is a huge price increase. rising wages provide hope, but perhaps not in time for november's election, according to bank rater sarah foster. prices are slowing in a much faster rate than wages, so at this point by the end of 2024 is, in theory, when americans are on pace to fully make up for the ground that they lost to inflation. i inherited an economy that is on the brink and now it is the envy of the world. joe biden frequently touts the economy's strength, but it is not holding much sway, at least with voters like stacy in the pivotal state of pennsylvania, which could help decide the outcome of the election. joe biden, where are you? democrats, where are you? a stark reminder ofjust how much americans hate inflation. michelle fleury, bbc news, pennsylvania. live now to craig erlam, independent market analyst. thank you forjoining us. take us into the minds of the fed's decision makers and explain why it's taking them longer than expected to cut the interest rates? ifi if i was a policymaker at the fed i would be frustrated, they have done an awful lot as other central banks have over the last couple of years to rain and inflation, raised interest rates to multi— decade highs, and yet inflation is proving very stubborn and that makes their life very difficult, they do not want to raise interest rates further but they feel they are not in a position to cut them yet. inflation has been quite steady in the us for the last year, it has been well above their inflation target, it is going to be hoping for some good news over the next couple of months which will enable them to start cutting interest rates but right now as you alluded to earlier, job growth are still strong, the economy is still strong, one thing you could say is jobless claims are starting to rise but we are looking is that small bits of data when most of the data continues to justify what the federal reserve are doing. it goes to show you can have a strong economy and strong jobs growth but ordinary people do not always feel the benefit from it. the fed, the ir, should be non—political. but it has a political impact. and the closer we get to the us presidential election, does it make the fed all the more reluctant to actually change anything? do they think twice unless it has a political impact? it should not have an impact they are independent and they should be hailed as such, as we have seen over the last five, six, seven years they have come into the firing line of policymakers and politicians. unfortunately, that has made the life increasingly difficult. it means people are pointing the finger a lot more in the last thing the central bank want to do is get caught in the crossfire of the election, i would say policymakers would be hesitant to start changing interest rates around an election, spoke about the uk earlier on but now we have the us election later on this year falls it's almostjustifying the federal reserve decision if it chooses to do so to move two or three months before the actual election in november and hold off until after the election because the later it leaves that the more it is risking getting tied up in the election campaign and the rhetoric which stems from it. on cue for sharing your analysis with us. the future and funding of vaccines is in focus today in paris where president emmanuel macron is hosting the global forum for vaccine sovereignty and innovation. global demand for vaccines has been growing since the beginning of the covid pandemic, especially in low—income countries with the worldwide market projected to reach revenue of almost $60 billion by the end of this year. i am joined now by david reddy, director general of the ifpma, the body which represents the international pharmaceutical industry. in cubajoining in cuba joining us. you run a business of course all your members run businesses but businesses that have a really profound impact on society. how would you describe what the forum is trying to achieve? good morning, the meeting in paris is incredibly important, it's about taking concrete steps to invest in the future of immunisation. with a real focus on increasing access to vaccines in the world �*s lowest income countries. it also kicks off the drive to replenish funding for gabi which was the global alliance for vaccines and immunisation. it has been around for about 2k years and during that time it has supported the vaccination of about i supported the vaccination of abouti billion children. and the effect of that in the world's closed income, 78 countries, as it has halved childhood mortality, it's been really profound and it's about continuing that great work but also bringing some of the new vaccine technologies to be as these are now becoming available.— these are now becoming available. . ,, ., these are now becoming available. . ,, . . available. looking back at what we saw during _ available. looking back at what we saw during the _ available. looking back at what we saw during the covid-19 - we saw during the covid—i9 pandemic, many vaccine makers were expected to put people before profits. all very noble. is there a risk that could hold back future vaccine development? vaccine makers are not willing to put the money increased in this is really about getting the balance right. in this is really about getting the balance right.- the balance right. in the industry _ the balance right. in the industry was _ the balance right. in the industry was very - the balance right. in the. industry was very focused during covid—i9 on firstly advancing the technology to make sure you vaccines were available which did successfully and facilitating equitable access through tiered pricing, technical transfers and other mechanisms. interest you showed a strong willingness and effectiveness to balance that. —— industry. one of the challenges was early on there were some disparities in terms of timing of access and that is also what this conference is intending to address. through these types of mechanisms, it is possible to achieve the balance you are talking about, it is also really critical that in order to support the type of innovation that vaccine uptake continues. many of us learned about mrna vaccines for the first time during covid, and perhaps we don't fully appreciate their potential for preventing other diseases. is the vaccine industry about to get even bigger? i think it can have tremendously more impact. we are really at an inflection point here with the new technologies that have come through. i worked on mrna as an antiviral strategy 35 years ago but the science rapidly progressed and a number of key scientific breakthroughs converged at the time of covid—i9 and allow those vaccines to come through in record time. and now we are seeing their moving into new areas, new diseases, communicable diseases, different viruses and also into cancer. we are living in a transformational. at this time and it would be difficult to overemphasise that. david reddy, director general of the ifpma. thank you forjoining us. in other news — jp morgan is scrapping the cap on bonuses of its bankers based in the uk. it follows a similar move by rival goldman sachs which could see their bankers earning up to 10 times their base salary. jp morgan defended the move, saying it's developed one of the most attractive and balanced pay structures in the industry. the uk government scrapped the cap on bankers' bonuses in october last year. the families of victims in two boeing 737 max plane crashes have asked for prosecutions and a fine of $24.8 billion for what they call "the deadliest corporate crime in us history". in a 32—page letter seen by the bbc, the families' lawyer paul cassell said that the us government should prosecute those leading the company when 346 people were killed in two crashes in 2018 and 2019. when we come back: are they still a girl's best friend? why diamonds are losing their lustre. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. with global markets back in their growth groove, stock market flotations are back in fashion. australia has just today seen its biggest ipo in more than a decade and it's quite spicy. the fast—growing mexican restaurant franchise guzman y gomez has made its public debut on the australian stock exchange. suranjana tawari is following the story from our asia business hub in singapore. can you taste the excitement from where you are? yes, shares jumped more yes, sharesjumped more than a third on the restaurant chain's first day of trading a sign about investor sentiment around the listing of guzman y gomez. it is currently trading about 31% higher than its issue price, and that puts its market value at two just over 2 billion us dollars. the big question is whether this is about the demand for mexican food, or if this is about the australian stock market making something out of a come back. guzman y gomez has big dreams for its brand, saying they want to match the current australian store count of 950 donalds in 20 years. some investors say although the company has rapid expansion plans, it has a market share ofjust expansion plans, it has a market share of just 3.5% expansion plans, it has a market share ofjust 3.5% of australia's fast food market and has not established a competitive advantage, which would justify such lofty ambitions. that leaves the prospect the australian stock market could be making something of a comeback. it is the stock market, it is the country's august initial public overseeing in a year and the share price surged sending a broader signal after better sentiment after high inflation and interest rates quash demand through 20 23 and 24. if guzman y gomez keeps the momentum up analyst say it is proof you could list a good company in a bad market. parts of india have been gripped by intense heatwaves in recent days and there's unlikely to be any immediate relief. weather forecasters have warned that the monsoon has stalled, and there's been 20% less rainfall injune than the long—term average. this has implications for the country's farmers. here's more from the bbc�*s nikhil inamdar in mumbai. this could be a worrying development for the indian economy given its big reliance on agriculture and the absence of large—scale irrigation in the country. millions of farmers here are dependent on a normal monsoon to plant key crops like rice, cotton and sugarcane. indian farms have been suffering from scorching temperatures with red alert warnings issued for heatwaves in the northern parts of the country this week. so a below—average monsoon will be a double whammy. earlier this month, the indian central bank warned that an exceptionally hot summer and lower water levels in indian reservoirs might put further pressure on food inflation which has been continuously very high. a normal monsoon would be an important factor in determining which way food prices go in the coming months. nikhil inamdar reporting from the city of mumbai. we all know the phrase and the sentiment that diamonds are forever. although perhaps not for right now. the natural diamond industry is in turmoil because of declining demand and laboratory grown diamonds becoming mainstream. diamond prices have fallen 6% in the last 6 months and more than 30% since their all time high in 2022. live now to tobias kormind, managing director, 77 diamonds. thank you forjoining us. how would you describe the situation, as the natural diamond industry under a threat? h diamond industry under a threat? v . diamond industry under a threat? �*, . , threat? so, it's an interesting question. _ threat? so, it's an interesting question. i— threat? so, it's an interesting question, i think _ threat? so, it's an interesting question, i think there - threat? so, it's an interesting question, i think there is - threat? so, it's an interesting question, i think there is a . question, i think there is a mixture of factors going on the luxury industry, which seems to be under a lot of pressure, you, which and you have got some invented the category of the diamond engagement ring being spun out of anglo american which owns them, and they have had some internal problems as well. so they produced a relatively poor result for 2023 where their revenue was down by 36%, which is enormous. and that is a reflection of subdued consumer demand and then you have this new threat of laboratory grown diamonds, which has now penetrated into the consumer mentality and has taken huge market share from traditional diamond markets. overall, it is growing. diamond markets. overall, it is urrowin. ., ., growing. you mentioned engagement _ growing. you mentioned engagement rings - growing. you mentioned j engagement rings where growing. you mentioned _ engagement rings where diamonds are generally a must have. put us into the mind of a newly engaged couple or a couple about to get engaged. how conscious do you think they are of the difference between laboratory grown and natural diamonds? where are we in the zeitgeist, if somebody was to propose the laboratory grown diamonds would that be seen as a slap on the bride's face? it's a really interesting question, what has actually happened, if you go back for a five years laboratory diamonds priced similarly at a slight discount to the naturals and did not present themselves as well priced alternative. but increasingly what we have seen is laboratory grown diamonds as manufacturing that has come on board at a massive scale we have seen huge price drops of those diamonds and they have been declining by something like 30 — been declining by something like 30 - 40% been declining by something like 30 — 40% a year which means now, if you look at the tiniest small diamond, they are about half the price laboratory grown versus natural. if you look at the bigger stones, ten 7 look at the bigger stones, ten ? which would be half a million natural, that is £5,000 with lab grown diamonds, you can see it offers tremendous values, so compelling a lot of people who are making their first large purchase, would rather put the money towards for example the wedding and then laboratory grown alternative. because to be frank, chemically they are identical. ., �* be frank, chemically they are identical-— identical. you can't tell the difference? _ identical. you can't tell the difference? you _ identical. you can't tell the difference? you can - identical. you can't tell the difference? you can but. identical. you can't tell the | difference? you can but you need specialist _ difference? you can but you need specialist equipment. | difference? you can but you - need specialist equipment. and expert with a loop, a ten times magnification which is traditionally how you check a diamond cannot tell whether a diamond cannot tell whether a diamond is a natural or laboratory grown but you have detectors now when you can instantly put them under the detector and it will tell you if it is lab grown or natural. let's not forget diamonds were formed when the earth was formed, they are primordial and they are the hardest substance on earth, there is something very magical about natural diamonds, and lab grown as they say on the tin, in the laboratory and the romance associated with the engagement ring obviously there is a large differentiation. what is really interesting now and you asked exactly the right question, as prices have come down this much, when they are supposed to be a gift of value, do they still, can they play the role they have been playing in the value part is missing. i think the answer is, it depends on individual circumstances, i think the natural diamond is still the big aspirational perches, but a lot of people are now. adopting lab grown because it fits the budget much better. . . , better. natural becomes the . reater better. natural becomes the greater status _ better. natural becomes the greater status symbol - better. natural becomes the greater status symbol even l better. natural becomes the | greater status symbol even if you can't tell the difference. tobias kormind, managing director, 77 diamonds. thank you forjoining us on business today. breakfast is next. goodbye for now. hello, there. wednesday was a decent day, right across all four nations. in fact, we saw temperatures in excess of 20 degrees, and we haven't seen that for over a week. but you may have heard a rumour that things are going to get warmerstill, and, infact, into next week we are likely to see temperatures widely into the mid—20s, maybe peaking as high as 28 celsius, somewhere in south—east england. perhaps, for many, that's something to look forward to, but before we get too carried away, let's concentrate on the rest of this week — turning warmer, yes, with some sunny spells, but there will also be some rain pushing into the west. now, we can see the first signs of that through today, with this weak weather front here, but more significant rain waiting in the wings. but for the majority of us, it will be a dry, settled and sunny start, a beautiful start. a line of nuisance cloud, really from northern england down to wales and south—west england, that could produce the odd spot or two of rain, and some showery dribs and drabs across northern ireland and into southern scotland, with that weakening weather front. to the far north west, temperatures perhaps struggling — 15 degrees. generally, to the north, we're looking at 18—20 celsius, with highest values of 22 celsius, somewhere in the south—east. but it's certainly worth bearing in mind, if you're a hay fever sufferer, well, we are looking at very high pollen levels, quite widely, across the country. now, into friday, ourweather front will continue to push in from the west. it will start to weaken off, as it drifts its away steadily east, but there's likely to be some heavier bursts, particularly across parts of northern ireland, as we go through the day on friday. some showery outbreaks of rain into western scotland, clouding over generally, but central and eastern areas should continue to see some sunshine, and, again, some warmth. we might see high teens, perhaps, in sheltered eastern areas of scotland. highest values, perhaps, of 23 celsius, somewhere in the south—east. now, that weatherfront, as it continues to track its way steadily east, will fragment and weaken, so there is a risk of some cloud, maybe a little bit of drizzle around on saturday, but on the whole, high pressure will build, and the winds are likely to swing around to more of a south—westerly for the second half of the weekend, and it's that south—westerly wind that will drive in this warmer air. so you can see, looking ahead, a lot of dry, settled, sunny weather, and turning increasingly warm. alleluia. good morning, welcome to breakfast with rogerjohnson and naga munchetty. our headlines today. with two weeks left of campaigning, a second conservative candidate is being looked into by the gambling regulator over an alleged bet about the timing of the general election. the search continues for a british teenager who's gone missing during a holiday with friends in tenerife. as an unprecedented heatwave sweeps across india, five more people die of heat stroke in the capital delhi. summer solstice celebrations at stonehenge will go ahead as normal this evening after orange powder was thrown on the monument byjust stop oil campaigners. it's a crucial day for those looking for a new mortgage, but don't expect better deals just yet. the bank of england will decide whether to cut interest rates later today. i'll be taking a look. in sport. scotland's euro hopes are still alive after they draw 1—1 with switzerland, and know they must win theirfinal game to stand a chance of progressing. and england are up next. good mornin: and england are up next. good morning from _ and england are up next. good morning from frankfurt - and england are up next. good morning from frankfurt where l and england are up next. good morning from frankfurt where england