cyprus and luxembourg six each. remember, they don't sit according to nationality, they sit within broad international groupings. there are seven groupings in all — the left, the greens, the socialists & democrats, renew europe. renew europe is the liberals. then comes the biggest group of them all — the centre—right european people's party, to the right of them the european conservatives and reformists, and then on the hard right, the identity and democracy group, in which marine le pen�*s meps will sit. so, let me show you the first projection issued in the last half an hour. you will see there the big gainers are definitely the hard right. it is only an early projection, this, but the losers on this chart very much the losers on this chart very much the greens and the liberals, which include emmanuel macron�*s renaissance party. neck, when you look at that chart, what do you see and what are the implications of it? i what do you see and what are the implications of it?— what do you see and what are the implications of it? i see the centre holdinu. implications of it? i see the centre holding- the _ implications of it? i see the centre holding. the supermajority - implications of it? i see the centre holding. the supermajority which i holding. the supermajority which supports the policies of the european commission is largely intact, has only lost a handful of seats overall compared to 2019, so we can see the centre is holding, but it is also possible to ignore the right flank growing considerably and that will weigh considerably on the institution to take into account those votes. —— it is impossible to ignore. those votes. -- it is impossible to ianore. ., , , those votes. -- it is impossible to ianore. . , , ., those votes. -- it is impossible to ianore. , ., ., ., ignore. there has been a lot of noise about — ignore. there has been a lot of noise about the _ ignore. there has been a lot of noise about the shift _ ignore. there has been a lot of noise about the shift to - ignore. there has been a lot of noise about the shift to the - ignore. there has been a lot of i noise about the shift to the bright and hard right in some countries but they are a desperate group, these parties on the right. the? they are a desperate group, these parties on the right.— parties on the right. they are, there is identity _ parties on the right. they are, there is identity and _ parties on the right. they are, l there is identity and democracy group _ there is identity and democracy group which includes marine le pen, the national rally, which is trying to use _ the national rally, which is trying to use this— the national rally, which is trying to use this as a springboard towards national_ to use this as a springboard towards national domestic politics in 2027. their_ national domestic politics in 2027. their part — national domestic politics in 2027. their part of identity and a boxy group, — their part of identity and a boxy group, but _ their part of identity and a boxy group, but there are others who she has tended — group, but there are others who she has tended towards a coalition, once like giorgia _ has tended towards a coalition, once like giorgia meloni, and marine le pen once — like giorgia meloni, and marine le pen once no suggestion of tie—up with those — pen once no suggestion of tie—up with those close to russia. the surrise with those close to russia. the surprise tonight, _ with those close to russia. tie: surprise tonight, after with those close to russia. tte: surprise tonight, after all with those close to russia. "tt2 surprise tonight, after all those gaffes, and talking about russian money infiltrating german politics, or chinese, is afd have done quite well. , , ., , . ., well. this is the worst election result, according _ well. this is the worst election result, according to _ well. this is the worst election result, according to various . result, according to various analysis. _ result, according to various analysts, in european election results — analysts, in european election results for 0laf scholz's own party so this _ results for 0laf scholz's own party so this will— results for 0laf scholz's own party so this will be concerning for him back_ so this will be concerning for him back in_ so this will be concerning for him back in germany. if so this will be concerning for him back in germany.— so this will be concerning for him back in germany. if you were to pick out other countries _ back in germany. if you were to pick out other countries that we - back in germany. if you were to pick out other countries that we have - back in germany. if you were to pick out other countries that we have not talked about tonight, what might you look at as part of this trend? i look at as part of this trend? 1 think we will have to look look at as part of this trend? t think we will have to look very closely at what happens in poland. a pro—eu party took power there only last december and kicked out the law and justice but there will be a rematch around this election and it will be interesting to see how the law and justice party performs in this election. they are doing quite well according to projections and of course there is italy, we talk about the resurgence of the hard right, how well giorgia meloni pass party are going to do in this election, again we are looking for a strong score there. and those two countries coming to before underplaying a bigger role on the eu stage. i was eight in respect of france and germany, the risk for them here is being discredited on the home front. both of those leaders have lost their selection and they lose political capital and some of their authority on the eu stage as a result of that. let's switch to those two — result of that. let's switch to those two countries. - hugh schofield is in paris for us, and damian mcguiness is in berlin. i look at that vote there, 32% for the national rally, i can't remember actually a party in a european election getting something at that level. �* ., ., ., ., , level. i'm going to not answer your auestion level. i'm going to not answer your question because _ level. i'm going to not answer your question because something - level. i'm going to not answer your question because something very l question because something very dramatic has happened is president macron has dissolved parliament and there will be elections in a month and i'm breaking this news because it is breaking in the last minute where macron decided the results were so heavy against him he would take this dramatic step. we are being told that half an hour ago macron was going to make some sort of intervention this evening which is unusual because normally a president wouldn't do that, he certainly has never done that, and we were speculating what could it possibly be that he was announcing and we wondered if it could be a dissolution of parliament and it is. this is massive news, what he said, and i was just trying to listen there, one had to respect the opinion of the people. the debate needed clarity now, politics need some clarity so he is dissolving parliament and there will be elections at the end ofjune, beginning ofjuly. it is a two round election but there will be on the 30th ofjune and 7th ofjuly. there is a massive risk for him and already he does not have a majority in parliament so he is struggling to get through with any legislative programme. if he is thinking at this election he will increase his majority, get back a majority, i think he is being very optimistic. logically, after this vote, we should see a big vote for the national rally at the parliamentary elections and see them fall into the next government so it could well be that in a few weeks from now we could have marine le pen as the next prime minister of france. that is not a given, the results could be different for the parliamentary election, it may well be that macron has calculated well, european elections, the national rally, the far right will do well because it is an easy sanction vote against the powers that be and any real legislative election for a parliament they won't do so well, but again that is an extremely risky line to take. if logically people will vote again on the same way, we will vote again on the same way, we will have a vague, the far right, the populace will be a majority in parliament and we will have a populist prime minister and a cohabitation as they say, a new era in one camp and a prime minister and another which can work but often leads to a sterile period in politics. it leads to a sterile period in olitics. , ., politics. it is quite an extraordinary - politics. it is quite an - extraordinary development. politics. it is quite an _ extraordinary development. one of the problems renaissance has had as it does not have a defined party structure around the country or didn't when macron came to power. the other issue is the government in paris, his cabinet at least is very much seen as a paris cabinet by those out in the country, so is he calling the bluff hair of the rally, because he put them in power and hope from his perspective they make a mess of it? that hope from his perspective they make a mess of it?— a mess of it? that is one way of interpreting _ a mess of it? that is one way of interpreting it, _ a mess of it? that is one way of interpreting it, but _ a mess of it? that is one way of interpreting it, but again - a mess of it? that is one way of interpreting it, but again a - a mess of it? that is one way of interpreting it, but again a very| interpreting it, but again a very risky strategy. yes, i can see why he might go along with those voices, and the reason the far right populist as well as because they are always perpetually the opposition and we live in a time when it was in power will get kicked out, in europe anyway, you have a term and then get kicked out, so it could be he will give them a period in power and then let the public see how useless they are after three years and then come back to a sensible election in 2027 and get a new president and revert to politics as normal. i think it is incredibly risky. no one knows how a national rally government would work, everything suggests it would probably go down the giorgia meloni route and be much more moderate than its own rhetoric has been in the past and much more moderate than its detractors hope it will be, it is far more likely to go down the normalisation route, in which case there won't be this impending defeat necessarily in 2027. the other factor of course as he is not running in 2027 and that of the other big part of this, he has no skin in the game as you would say, he can say i'm just doing this because the political situation has become untenable, it has stretched too far apart. is me and my party who are supposed to roll, we can't, because we don't have a majority and now we have quite clearly 40% of the country, four in ten people who vote choosing the hard right and he is just saying it is untenable and we need clarity. i think that is what we are going to get and in a way thatis we are going to get and in a way that is a good argument but it is extremely risky. he and his party are still quite popular in certain sectors of society. his ratings stay up sectors of society. his ratings stay up there at 20, 20 5% which isn't bad, but it is very concentrated among the more affluent, city dwellers, pensioners and even in those sectors, we can see the populist right beginning to erode his support. it is extremely risky and we could be in for a very big surprise injune, july. the other thing that is surprising as it is just before the olympics, so just at a time when the country was going to enter a period of circus with the euros and the olympics, thinking we could take a bit of time off from being serious, that consideration has gone. being serious, that consideration has one. . , being serious, that consideration has one. ., , has gone. remarkable development, thank ou. has gone. remarkable development, thank you- let's _ has gone. remarkable development, thank you. let's go _ has gone. remarkable development, thank you. let's go quickly _ has gone. remarkable development, thank you. let's go quickly to - thank you. let's go quickly to ballon. and equally bruising night for macron and equally the chancellor scholz. —— lets go quickly to berlin. chancellor scholz. -- lets go quickly to berlin.— chancellor scholz. -- lets go quickly to berlin. not quite as dramatic as _ quickly to berlin. not quite as dramatic as in _ quickly to berlin. not quite as dramatic as in france - quickly to berlin. not quite as dramatic as in france but - quickly to berlin. not quite as - dramatic as in france but certainly we will_ dramatic as in france but certainly we will see — dramatic as in france but certainly we will see drama here over the next few months— we will see drama here over the next few months because this is a disaster— few months because this is a disaster for the german chancellor, much _ disaster for the german chancellor, much worse — disaster for the german chancellor, much worse than expected. partly because _ much worse than expected. partly because as — much worse than expected. partly because as well disastrous for him personally— because as well disastrous for him personally because his face was all over the _ personally because his face was all over the country on election posters _ over the country on election posters. he really pushed himself always— posters. he really pushed himself always in— posters. he really pushed himself always in the campaign even though he is not _ always in the campaign even though he is not running himself in the european — he is not running himself in the european parliament elections, but he was _ european parliament elections, but he was the — european parliament elections, but he was the big face of the campaign so this— he was the big face of the campaign so this big _ he was the big face of the campaign so this big defeat is really on him. ithink— so this big defeat is really on him. i think what— so this big defeat is really on him. i think what we will see now is there — i think what we will see now is there has— i think what we will see now is there has already been a lot of internal— there has already been a lot of internal wrangling within the three coatition— internal wrangling within the three coalition parties, within very argumentative coalition, and we will see even_ argumentative coalition, and we will see even more arguments within that coatition— see even more arguments within that coalition because each of those parties — coalition because each of those parties will be fighting for survival with key regional elections coming _ survival with key regional elections coming up — survival with key regional elections coming up in eastern germany in september. they will be tough because — september. they will be tough because the afd could become the strongest — because the afd could become the strongest force, at the far right could _ strongest force, at the far right could become the strongest force in those _ could become the strongest force in those elections and we have the nationai— those elections and we have the national elections next year, so when _ national elections next year, so when you — national elections next year, so when you have a three—way coalition which _ when you have a three—way coalition which is _ when you have a three—way coalition which is already an uneasy alliance and if— which is already an uneasy alliance and if all— which is already an uneasy alliance and if all three of those parties are feeling with their backs to the wall are feeling with their backs to the wait they— are feeling with their backs to the wall they will fight even harder for their grassroots voters and they will fight — their grassroots voters and they will fight even harder for what they feel they— will fight even harder for what they feel they believe and want in order to stay— feel they believe and want in order to stay alive, effectively. so we will have — to stay alive, effectively. so we will have a _ to stay alive, effectively. so we will have a rocky time here in germany— will have a rocky time here in germany politically and i think we will see _ germany politically and i think we will see a — germany politically and i think we will see a particularly difficult time — will see a particularly difficult time for— will see a particularly difficult time for the government and as you said, _ time for the government and as you said. this _ time for the government and as you said, this has shifted to the right essentially, the conservatives are in theory— essentially, the conservatives are in theory the leaders, but they only have 30%, — in theory the leaders, but they only have 30%, this was once very powerful— have 30%, this was once very powerful parties that they are not doing _ powerful parties that they are not doing quite as well they should be doing _ doing quite as well they should be doing the — doing quite as well they should be doing. the real winners are the far right, _ doing. the real winners are the far right, the — doing. the real winners are the far right, the afd, who are incredibly radical— right, the afd, who are incredibly radical and — right, the afd, who are incredibly radical and everyone is a surprise they— radical and everyone is a surprise they wett— radical and everyone is a surprise they well as they have done in the number— they well as they have done in the number of— they well as they have done in the number of scandals connected to them and a _ number of scandals connected to them and a radical— number of scandals connected to them and a radical left party which is eating — and a radical left party which is eating into those mainstream voters. a lot going _ eating into those mainstream voters. a lot going on in german politics and i_ a lot going on in german politics and i think— a lot going on in german politics and i think it will get rockier with those _ and i think it will get rockier with those big — and i think it will get rockier with those big elections coming up. thank ou ve those big elections coming up. thank you very much. _ those big elections coming up. thank you very much, both. _ those big elections coming up. thank you very much, both. i _ those big elections coming up. thank you very much, both. i was _ those big elections coming up. thank you very much, both. i wasjust - you very much, both. i was just outside the greens election party room this evening and there were tears tonight, their vote cut in half in this parliamentary election. and nina, you havejust come back from france. and nina, you have 'ust come back from france.— and nina, you have 'ust come back from france. , ., �*, ., ., from france. yes, macron's hometown, doorstepping — from france. yes, macron's hometown, doorstepping people — from france. yes, macron's hometown, doorstepping people and _ from france. yes, macron's hometown, doorstepping people and finding - from france. yes, macron's hometown, doorstepping people and finding out. doorstepping people and finding out how unpopular he has become and i cannot find one person who said something particularly positive about the president. i've found one person who said they would vote for him but essentially that was because they were so concerned that a far right government in france would encourage hostility towards migrants and that person was a second—generation immigrant from north africa. second-generation immigrant from north africa-— second-generation immigrant from northafrica. ., north africa. could you make a case for a the dice _ north africa. could you make a case for a the dice again? _ north africa. could you make a case for a the dice again? it _ north africa. could you make a case for a the dice again? it seems - north africa. could you make a case for a the dice again? it seems like l for a the dice again? it seems like a big gamble- _ for a the dice again? it seems like a big gamble. having _ for a the dice again? it seems like a big gamble. having said - for a the dice again? it seems like a big gamble. having said that, i for a the dice again? it seems like | a big gamble. having said that, eu leaders, french and german, because thatis leaders, french and german, because that is the political axis that grinds the eu for it, have traditionally made these mistakes where whenever there is a crisis, they prescribe, like a doctor's note, more europe not less, and i think this is part of the problem emmanuel macron has here. a few weeks ago he was on the front cover of the economist magazine saying europe was in a moment of crisis, it needs strong leaders, big visionary thinkers, more europe not less. when you are in the streets of france, people are irritated by the olympics and that is where you would expect there to be more support for the president, and in the loire valley where there are a lot of agricultural people who are extremely upset of how much all the red tape and green policies are costing them in making their lives difficult. so it is very difficult to see who is backing emmanuel macron at this point. just to see who is backing emmanuel macron at this point.— to see who is backing emmanuel macron at this point. just on that oint, macron at this point. just on that point. scholz _ macron at this point. just on that point, scholz and _ macron at this point. just on that point, scholz and macron, - macron at this point. just on that point, scholz and macron, they l macron at this point. just on that l point, scholz and macron, they are the engine room of the european union, but on the back of these results, you have to question whether they can inspire people for the project. whether they can inspire people for the ro'ect. ~ , ., the project. absolutely. the franco german engine _ the project. absolutely. the franco german engine is _ the project. absolutely. the franco german engine is definitely - the project. absolutely. the franco german engine is definitely taking | the project. absolutely. the franco| german engine is definitely taking a kick tonight and has less natural authority— kick tonight and has less natural authority to call the shots. in a way. _ authority to call the shots. in a way. the — authority to call the shots. in a way, the programme that hasjust been _ way, the programme that hasjust been described about the green deal and things— been described about the green deal and things like this, that is stuck to the _ and things like this, that is stuck to the french and german leaders and they are _ to the french and german leaders and they are going to be somewhat discredited and how that is going to count— discredited and how that is going to count is— discredited and how that is going to count is when the leaders gather after— count is when the leaders gather after this— count is when the leaders gather after this election, they will be debating — after this election, they will be debating topjobs and after this election, they will be debating top jobs and top appointments and everybody will be looking _ appointments and everybody will be looking to france and germany to -ive looking to france and germany to give the _ looking to france and germany to give the first indication of who becomes— give the first indication of who becomes the next european commission president _ becomes the next european commission president. everybody gets one vote around _ president. everybody gets one vote around the — president. everybody gets one vote around the council seat, so it is not a _ around the council seat, so it is not a popularity contest, it is purely — not a popularity contest, it is purely based on size and strength. so they— purely based on size and strength. so they still will be able to structurally hold that importance, but they— structurally hold that importance, but they have been dealt a terrible blow domestically tonight. just lookinu blow domestically tonight. just lookin: at blow domestically tonight. tut looking at marine le pen, that is her president behind heather, 32% in the polls, a very strong performance which matched the poll we got before the election give or take, so they will certainly be a power on the hard right of the european parliament. since nick bought up the jobs which will now be up for grabs, i think this is a good time to talk about the division of power, the division of power within europe. there are three main eu institutions, the parliament, the only body directly elected, the other bodies are the council and then the european commission. that's the bloc�*s executive arm that draw up proposals for eu legislation. currently the president of the commission is germany's ursula von der leyen, who wants a second term — her epp grouping is projected to finish first, which means they will propose her again, but she needs 361 votes in the new parliament. what happens, because there is a feeling, you have told us already that the centre is held, can she get 361 votes from that centre or does she need to decide whether she is leaning left or right? yes. she need to decide whether she is leaning left or right?— leaning left or right? yes, i 'ust had a rook �* leaning left or right? yes, i 'ust had a look at i leaning left or right? yes, i 'ust had a look at the i leaning left or right? yes, ijust had a look at the projections . leaning left or right? yes, ijust| had a look at the projections just now and — had a look at the projections just now and it — had a look at the projections just now and it looks like the three parties — now and it looks like the three parties that are part of the supermajority, it does add up to more _ supermajority, it does add up to more than — supermajority, it does add up to more than three inch and 61, but you have to _ more than three inch and 61, but you have to take — more than three inch and 61, but you have to take into account the vote, which _ have to take into account the vote, which is _ have to take into account the vote, which is likely to happen injuly but not — which is likely to happen injuly but not for certain, is a secret ballot — but not for certain, is a secret ballot so _ but not for certain, is a secret ballot so people going and no one can be _ ballot so people going and no one can be sure, even if you rip your meps. _ can be sure, even if you rip your meps. as— can be sure, even if you rip your meps. as in— can be sure, even if you rip your meps, as in order to be can be sure, even if you rip your meps, as in orderto be in a more comfortable — meps, as in orderto be in a more comfortable position she will have to bow _ comfortable position she will have to bow to — comfortable position she will have to bow to her coalition either out to bow to her coalition either out to be _ to bow to her coalition either out to be right. — to bow to her coalition either out to be right, to giorgia meloni's camp. — to be right, to giorgia meloni's camp. or— to be right, to giorgia meloni's camp, orto the to be right, to giorgia meloni's camp, or to the left, to be right, to giorgia meloni's camp, orto the left, to to be right, to giorgia meloni's camp, or to the left, to the greens which _ camp, or to the left, to the greens which might— camp, or to the left, to the greens which might be a more natural ally given— which might be a more natural ally given she — which might be a more natural ally given she did the green deal, but that is— given she did the green deal, but that is all— given she did the green deal, but that is all going to be a frenzy of negotiating between now and the confirmation vote in the european parliament. confirmation vote in the european parliament-— confirmation vote in the european parliament. ., , i, parliament. you can see why she has roblems, parliament. you can see why she has problems. but _ parliament. you can see why she has problems, but with _ parliament. you can see why she has problems, but with the _ parliament. you can see why she has problems, but with the european - problems, but with the european union replace her as a time when there is a perspective trump presidency and america and more on the edge of europe? that presidency and america and more on the edge of europe?— the edge of europe? that is a very aood the edge of europe? that is a very good question. — the edge of europe? that is a very good question, who _ the edge of europe? that is a very good question, who else - the edge of europe? that is a very good question, who else has - the edge of europe? that is a very good question, who else has risenj the edge of europe? that is a very i good question, who else has risen to the challenge? she arguably had during some of these times she was very much underestimated originally, she was not the original favourite candidate, the head of the epp was. really, as nick was saying, if she wanted to glide through this process, she would need 400, not just at, so there may be a lot behind the themes which we may not hear about like how she ended up getting thejob in hear about like how she ended up getting the job in the fast pace last time round. as you said, it is whether she leans towards the greens or the right. the green agenda is pretty unpopular in places like the netherlands which has gone more populous now. netherlands which has gone more populous now— netherlands which has gone more --oulous now. ., , ., populous now. social democrats and renew said if — populous now. social democrats and renew said if you _ populous now. social democrats and renew said if you are _ populous now. social democrats and renew said if you are leaning - populous now. social democrats and renew said if you are leaning to i populous now. social democrats and renew said if you are leaning to the | renew said if you are leaning to the likes of giorgia meloni can't have a vote so you need to be careful. —— can't have our vote. vote so you need to be careful. -- can't have our vote.— can't have our vote. they said you need to renounce _ can't have our vote. they said you need to renounce the _ can't have our vote. they said you need to renounce the right - can't have our vote. they said you need to renounce the right to i need to renounce the right to express— need to renounce the right to express any or you will not get our support— express any or you will not get our support in— express any or you will not get our support in the european parliament, said they— support in the european parliament, said they really made that a clear threat _ said they really made that a clear threat. 0ne said they really made that a clear threat. one thing i wanted to add to what we _ threat. one thing i wanted to add to what we were saying before, part of her challengers to make sure her party _ her challengers to make sure her party votes for her, that every single — party votes for her, that every single lawmaker votes for her, and the person— single lawmaker votes for her, and the person she has to rely on to do this is— the person she has to rely on to do this is the — the person she has to rely on to do this is the head of the epp and now here is— this is the head of the epp and now here is a _ this is the head of the epp and now here is a very much in a position of power— here is a very much in a position of power in _ here is a very much in a position of power in the — here is a very much in a position of power in the parliament. let here is a very much in a position of power in the parliament.— here is a very much in a position of power in the parliament. let me 'ust break away. — power in the parliament. let me 'ust break away. we fl power in the parliament. let me 'ust break away, we can i power in the parliament. let me 'ust break away, we can see i power in the parliament. let me 'ust break away, we can see ursula i power in the parliament. let me just break away, we can see ursula von l break away, we can see ursula von der leyen, she is speaking. freighters entrusted us with their vote and count on us indeed, but there is one special person i want to thank explicitly. and this is you, manfred. without you, this would not have been possible. many thanks to you, this is outstanding. we had a fantastic campaign, we were determined, we were united, we made it and now we want the european elections. we were convincing and all this paid. freighters have entrusted us, thank you. —— voters have entrusted us. my friends, i also want to thank our epp secretary generalfurther support, also want to thank our epp secretary general further support, that he has. and now i need a big hand because i want to thank my outstanding campaign team. give them a big hand. bravo, bravo! so, indeed, it is now three months ago indeed, it is now three months ago in bucharest that you entrusted me to be the epp lead candidate and in the weeks since then, i have campaigned with many of you across the european union in the different member states and i must tell you, i went to 17 different member states, i visited 31 cities, this was one of the best experiences i ever made in my political life. it was really great. and i have met people from all walks of life, i have worked very closely with our candidates across europe and i must tell you, what i saw was a loss of confidence and trust, a trust and confidence in the epp, trust and confidence in our european union. and tonight, this is confirmed, the epp is the strongest political group in the european parliament. the epp has the most leaders. fies parliament. the epp has the most leaders. �* , , ., parliament. the epp has the most leaders. ~ , , ., ., ., leaders. as you have underlined lion there who travelled _ leaders. as you have underlined lion there who travelled extensively i leaders. as you have underlined lion there who travelled extensively in i there who travelled extensively in there who travelled extensively in the run—up to the vote which is ironic as she is still yet to be elected. —— ursula von der leyen there. if she is chosen she had to pick the commissioners. there is an industrial policy around defence which will have billions in procurement in europe and that will be part of the new portfolio. a lot of people have links thatjob to the new power in europe which is poland. so let's go to warsaw — adam easton is there for us. we were just talking about the poor performance for emmanuel macron and 0laf scholz, it looks like donald tusk could be the new power. olaf scholz, it looks like donald tusk could be the new power. that's ri . ht, tusk could be the new power. that's rirht, if tusk could be the new power. that's right. if the — tusk could be the new power. that's right. if the exit _ tusk could be the new power. that's right, if the exit poll— tusk could be the new power. that's right, if the exit poll which _ tusk could be the new power. that's right, if the exit poll which was i right, if the exit poll which was released just over 20 minutes ago is confirmed, donald tusk�*s centrist party win the election with just over 38% of the vote, that is more than 4% above the second—place law and justice party who were much more and justice party who were much more a eurosceptic party and had many run—ins with the european commission during its eight years in power before they were voted out in 0ctober�*s parliamentary election. the centre wins in parliament and donald tusk is a very happy man. he said today has shown that poland is a beacon of hope for europe, i think he was referring to some of the more extreme gains in the rest of europe. it is particularly important for mr task because if this exit poll is confirmed, it breaks a run of nine consecutive election wins for the law and justice party stretching back to 2015, so mr tusk put a lot of effort in terms of campaigning for the selection, basically portraying it as a choice between europe, brussels and russia, because obviously poland is a neighbour of ukraine and the war here is very real and the issue that has affected the way polls see the future more than anything else, according to the polling, as the war in ukraine and the threat from russia, so that was the threat from russia, so that was the number one issue in this election campaign. donald tusk basically said that he will have a very firm policy and terms of security, beefing up parliament security and also beefing up the border, which is of course the eu's border, which is of course the eu's border as well with belarus where there are migratory problems, so that was something i think he managed to basically take the issue which law and justice had typically been associated with and take it overfor been associated with and take it over for his own party which is something the opposition couldn't criticise him for both because they supported strong security and the like, so a clever move by donald tuskin like, so a clever move by donald tusk in the election campaign. 0ne tusk in the election campaign. one that seems to have paid off handsomely.— that seems to have paid off handsomely. that seems to have paid off handsomel . ., ~' , ., , . that seems to have paid off handsomel . ., ,, , ., , . ., handsomely. thank you very much for that. on tuesday _ handsomely. thank you very much for that. on tuesday in _ handsomely. thank you very much for that. on tuesday in warsaw _ handsomely. thank you very much for that. on tuesday in warsaw he - handsomely. thank you very much for that. on tuesday in warsaw he said i that. on tuesday in warsaw he said if you don't want war, go and vote. poland already is a big power broker but he has taken a prominent role. would he fancy the commissioner's role? it would he fancy the commissioner's role? ., . . . would he fancy the commissioner's role? . ,. ,, role? it has been much discussed, he is to be the — role? it has been much discussed, he is to be the president _ role? it has been much discussed, he is to be the president of— role? it has been much discussed, he is to be the president of the - is to be the president of the european council, he is a heavyweight in europe by all means, but you _ heavyweight in europe by all means, but you don't get much better than head of— but you don't get much better than head of government in your own country — head of government in your own country. what people are looking at is the _ country. what people are looking at is the foreign minister, another high—profile name, coming to brussels _ high—profile name, coming to brussels and being this new defence commissioner which is sort of a role to invent _ commissioner which is sort of a role to invent. some of the countries here _ to invent. some of the countries here are — to invent. some of the countries here are sceptical, they say how much _ here are sceptical, they say how much money is really attached to it? security— much money is really attached to it? security remains the prerogative, how important will it be? but someone _ how important will it be? but someone lie radoslaw sikorski is in line for— someone lie radoslaw sikorski is in line for this — someone lie radoslaw sikorski is in line for this role. we someone lie radoslaw sikorski is in line for this role.— line for this role. we have spoken about the assassination _ line for this role. we have spoken about the assassination attempt i line for this role. we have spoken i about the assassination attempt on robert fico and he was voting this weekend from his hospital bed, and an attack on mette frederiksen, a knife attack on a member of the afd, is at part of the course in a rough game like politics or are things getting worse in europe? things are rrettin getting worse in europe? things are getting extremely concerning. i getting worse in europe? things are getting extremely concerning. the i getting extremely concerning. the cause is obviously a polarisation and particularly around certain issues like the issue of migration thatis issues like the issue of migration that is so crucial to keeping the european union project together, this idea of people being able to move between borders but also the idea that people share the load of asylum seekers who come to the eu and also that people share the financial burden of having a single currency, and this is why donald tusk of course was so crucial at the time he was at the helm of the european commission that that was at a time when the eu had to talk about how to bail out some of their crucial member states. so if they have to write checks that they are going to have to share a common european defence policy and ramp up being able to make weapons, which by the way as we know the war in ukraine shows they have not been able to make as quickly as they originally thought, who will pay for it? will they be able to share the burden? who will make it? france is the biggest weapons manufacturer in this part of the world and there is a lot of nervousness in places like germany and poland that get their weaponry from places like the us about whether or not they should be pivoting to rely it so much on france which again is the only one with the big nuclear deterrent. trier? with the big nuclear deterrent. very much one of— with the big nuclear deterrent. very much one of the _ with the big nuclear deterrent. very much one of the major— with the big nuclear deterrent. very much one of the major themes in the next parliament. right, let's go into the hemisphere, a "cauldron" of broadcasters, statisticians, and some very nervous party representatives tonight. what are they seeing in the early projections? what stands out in those countries where the polls have closed? in the last hour, we have had some reaction from the group leaders to these provisional results. 0ur europe editor katya adler is in the room for us. not all of them closed yet. they are still voting in italy. what do you pick out of the results so far? i what do you pick out of the results so far? .. ., what do you pick out of the results so far? ,, ., ., ., so far? i think apart from all the results coming _ so far? i think apart from all the results coming through - so far? i think apart from all the results coming through which i so far? i think apart from all the | results coming through which are important, and we will discuss what effect they may have on eu policy to come, i think the real shock wave set of gone through here to the representatives of media that have been mentioned is news from france. emmanuel macron, president of france, after the predicted results from france and the european election, dissolving parliament to call a general election. that is huge. it is also a very big risk. this is france, so traditionally the eu would always talk about the motor of europe, the biggest countries, germany and france, and france would take a risk in parliamentary elections that have been set in two rounds for the end of the month and for the 7th ofjuly, taking the risk that the far right, under marine le pen, could do so well that they end “p pen, could do so well that they end up the prime minister ship of france, and that at the moment has everybody talking here. apart from that, posters will be happy. they had a bit of a bad reputation over recent years, sometimes getting elections very wrong. it appears as far as the european parliamentary elections go, they have been very right, predicted a rightward swing and that's is what we are seen, with more of went to the centre right in europe in many countries across europe, and also big gains for the far right and the hard right. you've ke -t me far right and the hard right. you've kept me real _ far right and the hard right. you've kept me real tonight _ far right and the hard right. you've kept me real tonight on _ far right and the hard right. you've kept me real tonight on how i far right and the hard right. you've kept me real tonight on how much | kept me real tonight on how much power and influence all these groups on the right would have. explain to people why the centre was still controlled events within the parliament will stop. it controlled events within the parliament will stop. it looks like the biggest _ parliament will stop. it looks like the biggest grouping _ parliament will stop. it looks like the biggest grouping in _ parliament will stop. it looks like the biggest grouping in the i parliament will stop. it looks like i the biggest grouping in the european parliament will remain the centre—right, the epp grouping that you have been talking about. we have seen big gains on the hard rights, the far rights, the nationalist rights, but they sit in different groupings here in the european parliament, and broadly speaking, without getting into the technical details they agree on some subjects are not on others. many of them are in right wing nationalists and with clues in the name they put their countries priorities for us, meaning that when they work together it is not always a success. that ukraine will stop we have marine le pen of france who looks like she has done very well, her party. she would like to work together with the party of italy's prime minister giorgia meloni, they are suitable to an end as you say but she is predicted to do very well. when it comes to ukraine they totally disagree. marine le pen, traditionally soft on moscow, very sceptical about nato but if you look at giorgia meloni for italy, she's a transatlantic cyst and passionate about continuing to supply ukraine with weapons, so that could not work together on ukraine. could they work together on migration and having a hard line there? they could. that is what you can see with parties on the hard right are far right or nationalists right, clumping together as is traditional here in the eu, and when they agree on a subject to push her interests, but only when they clumped together when they have an influence on eu policy, otherwise the numbers do not make it. ltruthiiie the numbers do not make it. while ou were the numbers do not make it. while you were talking, _ the numbers do not make it. while you were talking, we _ the numbers do not make it. while you were talking, we saw- the numbers do not make it. while you were talking, we saw a map i the numbers do not make it. while you were talking, we saw a map of where the hard right is either in power or part of a coalition of power, its almost as if if austria goes far right, if they go to the rite later this year, a third of the european countries will now have a hard right element to stop with that be a concern to the commission? fine be a concern to the commission? one big concern — be a concern to the commission? one big concern for— be a concern to the commission? t2 big concern for the commission would be if you have a commission that once to have more competencies as they are called here in europe speak, more powers, exist for example, the outgoing commission was more concerned after coving and having more individual policy for eu member states, having more individual policy for eu memberstates, if having more individual policy for eu member states, if you hand more power to nationalist parties, some would say they want keep our powers for us, in the nation, we don't want it is called interference from brussels, so will be harder for the commission to get extra powers, for example, and i think it is it not only a trend where sending the eu, you have the european parliament here, one of the main institutions, the commission is the other, and the other is a leaders of the 27 eu countries, the eu summits where we have met and spoken over the years, thatis have met and spoken over the years, that is a very powerful arm, and increasing, as you say, the centre—right has moved more to the right in and incentive not to lose voters to those on a harder rite of politics, and we are seeing more talk about my country, put in my country first and not giving more powers to brussels, so that we have a knock on effect on the european commission for example.- a knock on effect on the european commission for example. thank you for that. nick, people describe these parties on the hard right in all manner of ways, radical populists, eurosceptics fascists — they would say they are eurosceptics, fascists — they would say they are sovereignists, nationalists, democrats. what they cannot be described as though — any more — is fringe. i think that is one of the big takeaways, the normalisation of these _ takeaways, the normalisation of these parties. the national rally in france _ these parties. the national rally in france is _ these parties. the national rally in france is the mainstream, it may be the next _ france is the mainstream, it may be the next government if they win this election _ the next government if they win this election. the same goes for italy, these _ election. the same goes for italy, these parties are now inside the tent. _ these parties are now inside the tent. and — these parties are now inside the tent, and they have in effect change the way _ tent, and they have in effect change the way their policies in many ways. one thing _ the way their policies in many ways. one thing we should point out is that none — one thing we should point out is that none of these parties are called — that none of these parties are called into leave the eu any more. you remember brexit amount we also talked _ you remember brexit amount we also talked about the netherlands exit and brexit, there is a wave of concern — and brexit, there is a wave of concern around that, and since dissolved. _ concern around that, and since dissolved, nobody talking about dissolving the euro any more, these parties _ dissolving the euro any more, these parties are _ dissolving the euro any more, these parties are talking about changing the policies from the inside, and between — the policies from the inside, and between the lines, you could say that they — between the lines, you could say that they are actually quite supportive of the eu as a project. there _ supportive of the eu as a project. there are — supportive of the eu as a project. there are some elements within the eu that _ there are some elements within the eu that are — there are some elements within the eu that are rebelling against the eu, eu that are rebelling against the eu. like — eu that are rebelling against the eu, like hungary, but that is almost an exceptional case, giorgia meloni my eyes— an exceptional case, giorgia meloni my eyes pointed out was a pro—eu and pro-nato _ my eyes pointed out was a pro—eu and pro—nato and pro—ukraine, and she's inside _ pro—nato and pro—ukraine, and she's inside the _ pro—nato and pro—ukraine, and she's inside the club, and the big question— inside the club, and the big question mark is around those new powers. _ question mark is around those new powers, how would marine le pen behaviour— powers, how would marine le pen behaviour and how the dutch government behave, it is supported by the _ government behave, it is supported by the far— government behave, it is supported by the far right as well, it be? surround _ by the far right as well, it be? surround those. just by the far right as well, it be? surround those.— by the far right as well, it be? surround those. just on the green olicies surround those. just on the green policies around _ surround those. just on the green policies around that, _ surround those. just on the green policies around that, two - surround those. just on the green policies around that, two things i surround those. just on the green i policies around that, two things for me, 2090 was all about the greens and lots of young people, not to vote for them, and evidence that units of those young people have no switch to the hard rights, and if you vote for the hard rights as a young boater, perhaps you become a hard right boater for young boater, perhaps you become a hard right boaterfor a generation. it depends where you are, there is back at the epp the conservative party that she's part of, this big gathering in bucharest, and she barely mentioned it at all, and that was very telling, this idea that they pivoted away from quickly away from the green policies, any people in the ascendant farmers parties in the netherlands and places like that that have upended the political landscape there would say they took far too long to pivot away from that but there is a real sentiment here that the agrarian vote could turn away from the centre—right and they can afford to lose that. it away from the centre-right and they can afford to lose that.— can afford to lose that. if you're nervous about _ can afford to lose that. if you're nervous about putting - can afford to lose that. if you're nervous about putting green i can afford to lose that. if you're i nervous about putting green policy through because of this election and what the people have said, the scientists tell us this is the decisive decade, this is a parliament that would be in place almost until 2030. they will set the direction. there are investors out there who take the lead from the policy in revelation the european union now sets in place. is there a danger they slow walk some of that policy because they are afraid of the electorate at the time when they need to go faster?— need to go faster? that's right, and if they don't — need to go faster? that's right, and if they don't invest _ need to go faster? that's right, and if they don't invest in _ need to go faster? that's right, and if they don't invest in green - if they don't invest in green technologies, china is flooding the space and you is trying consistently to use his power to prevent china from dumping solar panels on the market, and just recently did the italian prima dessert was commissioned to write a big report on, as i was saying before, prescribing it more europe and not less. saying that the eu should be investing much, much more in the single market investing in some kind of huge cohesive saturday to invest in green technology. it is not that it appears what the young voters want to hear in places like france, and the dude vote is so important in france and i cannot overestimate this. it is one of the reasons why one candidate has been chosen, he has been chosen because his name doesn't have the same connotation as jenna penn, he is good performing on tiktok and so on and so forth in getting young voters mobilised, many will attend this evening for the first time for him. find will attend this evening for the first time for him.— will attend this evening for the first time for him. and some 16 euros, first time for him. and some 16 euros. there — first time for him. and some 16 euros, there are _ first time for him. and some 16 euros, there are four— first time for him. and some 16 euros, there are four or - first time for him. and some 16 euros, there are four or five i euros, there are four or five countries that have dropped the voting age, and will see if that has helped turn out in those countries. though turnout across the board is down from what it was in a high mark in 2019 since 1994. it had gone up to a high watermark in 2019 now back down again. we've spoken a lot about giorgia meloni, the italian prime minister. polls will close until 11 o'clock, mark, so we won't get anything in the italian election, but did it work among putting yourself at the top of the list? it work among putting yourself at the top of the list?— top of the list? if she's hoping to increase the _ top of the list? if she's hoping to increase the turnout, _ top of the list? if she's hoping to increase the turnout, i'm - top of the list? if she's hoping to increase the turnout, i'm not i top of the list? if she's hoping to | increase the turnout, i'm not sure it's has worked because the turnout looks like in considerably down this year on the last election in 2019, and some analysts have suggested this could be the lowest turnout in history for european elections in italy. we are waiting for a final figures, the post on close for a few hours, but we are getting a sense that this party, brothers of italy, their headquarters will be here for their headquarters will be here for the night, pretty empty at the moment as you see behind me, but it will get busy through the evening, and we get the sense they have done well here, and they are hoping so talk to the polls and replicates in the national political picture at the national political picture at the european level was up was that important? this party in the last 2019 election butjust six mvps, i know it is expected to go up by possibly four times more than 2019 and it is thought to, expected to top the polls and do extremely well. giorgia meloni towers over its head in politics and she's arguably the strongest right—wing leader in europe at the moment, and she is and should courted by both sides. you have ursula von der leyen, for example, who is a centrist right—winger and i said that she has worked well with georgia monona, she no that she needs her support to get a second term as president of the european commission, and you're the hard right like women who have also extended a hand to maloney and said they should join in one political grouping because the far right or the nationalists are split into two groupings in the european parliament. you have giorgia meloni's grouping any harder right grouping called identity and democracy who is the deputy prime minister who leads the lead party here in italy, more to the right of georgia maloney, and marine le pen suggest getting in one political grouping which is very strong. georgia meloni has been lukewarm to the words that because as your guests i said, she has the new student —— distinguish herself from other far student —— distinguish herself from otherfar right in europe, she has been wholeheartedly in support of the war, supporting ukraine in the war against russia, very anti—putin and pro—arm in ukraine, whereas people like marine le pen and viktor 0rban among the leaders in slovakia and other members of the eastern side of that european union who are much more lukewarm or indeed against continuing to arm ukraine, so giorgia meloni is trying to trade at this interesting middle ground between the centre—right and the further right in europe, and that is what makes her such an important figure for the two camps that are both trying to win her support. mark, we will come back to you when polls close there at 11pm european time, thank you for that. if you're joining us, a reminder of our breaking news from france. just a reminder of our breaking news this evening from france — and president macron has called a snap election in the wake of the hard—right�*s big victory in the european elections. they'll take place in two rounds in latejune and earlyjuly, a few weeks before the paris 0lympics. the national rally led by marine le pen won 32% of the vote, according to exit polls, more than twice the vote of macron's party. we can't think of a party in europe has had such an overwhelming majority as the one seen in france tonight. 0ne majority as the one seen in france tonight. one thing you have to talk about in how the mainstream the republicans and socialist where the power when i was in paris, we don't even talk about them any more. irate in paris, we don't even talk about them any more-— them any more. we are both old enou~h them any more. we are both old enough to _ them any more. we are both old enough to remember— them any more. we are both old enough to remember it - them any more. we are both old enough to remember it totally . enough to remember it totally different cast of characters in france — different cast of characters in france i_ different cast of characters in france. i reported there more than a decade _ france. i reported there more than a decade ago — france. i reported there more than a decade ago and indeed we had a big, strong _ decade ago and indeed we had a big, strong centre—right block, jack shore — strong centre—right block, jack shore rock and nicholas are cosy has withered _ shore rock and nicholas are cosy has withered away to next to nothing. a handful— withered away to next to nothing. a handful of— withered away to next to nothing. a handful of seeds here in europe, in brussels. _ handful of seeds here in europe, in brussels, next to nothing in france, and the _ brussels, next to nothing in france, and the socialists also had this incredible shrinkage, but they are incredible shrinkage, but they are in a surprise tonight because they have _ in a surprise tonight because they have got— in a surprise tonight because they have got about 12 or 14% of the seats. — have got about 12 or 14% of the seats, with rafael glicksman a member— seats, with rafael glicksman a member of the european parliament, so there _ member of the european parliament, so there are — member of the european parliament, so there are signs of life for the -- a pulse — so there are signs of life for the -- a pulse in _ so there are signs of life for the —— a pulse in any case with the socialists — —— a pulse in any case with the socialists amount but and then emmanuel macron came in and dynamited the centre—right and no fmmanuel— dynamited the centre—right and no emmanuel macron himself is been disrupted — emmanuel macron himself is been disrupted by this kind of nativist force. _ disrupted by this kind of nativist force. and — disrupted by this kind of nativist force, and is not quite clear how this is— force, and is not quite clear how this is all— force, and is not quite clear how this is all going to shake out in the end — this is all going to shake out in the end i_ this is all going to shake out in the end. i mean, obviously, he is hoping _ the end. i mean, obviously, he is hoping l — the end. i mean, obviously, he is ho-rin ., the end. i mean, obviously, he is ho-rin . ., _ the end. i mean, obviously, he is ho-rin ., ., _ the end. i mean, obviously, he is houin ., ., ,, ., hoping i mean obviously soaping that if the national _ hoping i mean obviously soaping that if the national rally _ hoping i mean obviously soaping that if the national rally as _ hoping i mean obviously soaping that if the national rally as a _ hoping i mean obviously soaping that if the national rally as a community l if the national rally as a community next government it would be on some basis that they see ice i, some issues, and he can show them not being up to the job and put gabriel attal in place to be the next president. i attal in place to be the next president-— attal in place to be the next resident. ,, ., , president. i think that is most likel the president. i think that is most likely the game _ president. i think that is most likely the game plan, - president. i think that is most likely the game plan, the i president. i think that is most| likely the game plan, the type president. i think that is most i likely the game plan, the type of game plan that was circulating among paris dinner tables this time last year. there was even the suggestion that since there is nobody left really in the room who has got the political clout these days from the traditional parties in rice to replace him after 2027, let's have them take the reins of the nec products, do a badjob, then them take the reins of the nec products, do a bad job, then either himself or somebody i like to him could come back in. do himself or somebody i like to him could come back in.— himself or somebody i like to him could come back in. do you think, havinr could come back in. do you think, having reported — could come back in. do you think, having reported on _ could come back in. do you think, having reported on a _ could come back in. do you think, having reported on a list - could come back in. do you think, having reported on a list of i could come back in. do you think, | having reported on a list of french elections, there is always a firewall, so if the marine le pen's got into the second round than the other side would come in and the second round and vote for the mainstream, do you think that firewall is disappearing or has it disappeared with this result tonight? it disappeared with this result tonirht? .., , disappeared with this result tonirht? , ., tonight? it comes back to the crucial result _ tonight? it comes back to the crucial result of _ tonight? it comes back to the crucial result of age, - tonight? it comes back to the crucial result of age, when i tonight? it comes back to the i crucial result of age, when you're 18 euros 12 left school and have followed this candidate on twitter, say they respect him and he talks thing they remember, by the way, marine le pen has very astutely over the last few years focused on clearing the family's name, notjust from the time she was at the helm of the party before it was renamed, by the party before it was renamed, by the way, and allegations that they were taking money from russia, to close russia, she did not speak out a dog, quite the opposite when russia invaded crimea, but also the rhetoric her father espoused that many older people are poor but the youngsters don't know about and are voting for the first time. so he is a blank page any attractive proposition talking to them about jobs and positive things at the time when the big beasts in europe are talking about war, the economy, the cost of living and so on and a whole we have to pay for the world heating up, it's we have to pay for the world heating up, its negative, that's a problem. we talked about turnout and the youth turnout, a third of the young voters in france were not with the show and read gabriel attal is a young premonition or try to encourage young voters posting a video on saturday holding a nintendo switch, a universal charger and a condom, and all he said were regulated here in europe to the benefit of the consumer. that does not seem to be resonating with voters. ., ~' �* , not seem to be resonating with voters. ., ,, �* , ., not seem to be resonating with voters. ., ,, �*, ., ., _ voters. no, i think it's an easy tarret voters. no, i think it's an easy target for— voters. no, i think it's an easy target forjordan _ voters. no, i think it's an easy target forjordan bartolotta i voters. no, i think it's an easy. target forjordan bartolotta who came _ target forjordan bartolotta who came in — target forjordan bartolotta who came in at the eagle, and the start of attacks— came in at the eagle, and the start of attacks you've seen on them about their competency. he has been exposed — their competency. he has been exposed as kind of lacking basic knowledge about how the eu works even though he is supposed to come here for— even though he is supposed to come here for the — even though he is supposed to come here for the next five years, he did not know _ here for the next five years, he did not know the vote for the commission president— not know the vote for the commission president was a secret ballot, and those _ president was a secret ballot, and those things would be embarrassing but they— those things would be embarrassing but they don't seem to quite be resonated with the voters. i would say the _ resonated with the voters. i would say the youth vote is of course important. _ say the youth vote is of course important, but when you get to the parliament — important, but when you get to the parliament elections and the presidential elections, you have to -et presidential elections, you have to get a _ presidential elections, you have to get a majority, about 50%, to actually— get a majority, about 50%, to actually run the country, and that is a different kettle of fish and i'm is a different kettle of fish and i'm still— is a different kettle of fish and i'm still not sure that even today the far— i'm still not sure that even today the far right, the bartolotta and lippin. — the far right, the bartolotta and lippin, would gather 50% of the french— lippin, would gather 50% of the french because there are lots of people _ french because there are lots of people who do remember what the third or— people who do remember what the third or what the party represents, the history— third or what the party represents, the history of the party and the algerian— the history of the party and the algerian war and other things that are embedded deep in the psyche and i'm are embedded deep in the psyche and i'm not— are embedded deep in the psyche and i'm not sure _ are embedded deep in the psyche and i'm not sure they would get past the gates— i'm not sure they would get past the gates of— i'm not sure they would get past the gates of power into the elysees, i could _ gates of power into the elysees, i could be — gates of power into the elysees, i could be wrong, i did not expect this tonight to happen either. there ma be this tonight to happen either. there may be viewers _ this tonight to happen either. there may be viewersjust _ this tonight to happen either. there may be viewersjust joining - this tonight to happen either. there may be viewersjust joining us, i may be viewersjustjoining us, i have my rudimentary chart here about what is up—and—down in the parliament. if you were to characterise, nearthe parliament. if you were to characterise, near the end of our programme, what is happening here in europe tonight, it looks to me from the centre—right to the right, they are in the ascendancy, the greens are in the ascendancy, the greens are the big losers and the centuries —— centrist, but also because of that poor performance of that burn incense party in france. the centre-right _ incense party in france. the centre-right and _ incense party in france. tt2 centre—right and parliament shifted the right, the centre—right are in power but their opposition will make life difficult coming from the same side of the politicos spectrum on the far right, on the other hand, there is another counter narrative not mentioned, which is the fact that eastern european countries like poland as mentioned before, but also hungry, we are seeing people tiring of this far right autocratic attitude, so peter magyar, who was once married to one of viktor 0rban was michael allies, he has done well in taking what's away, so that vote against corruption against pushing back on eu values and the rule of law, people might be tiring of it in some parts of eastern europe. 2.5 some parts of eastern europe. as mark said, that is where giorgia meloni has been pretty astute, i was talking to someone in the parliament this afternoon who said migration, she knew when to apply the pressure, so they were almost at the deal, find out the germans were given money to the rescue teams out in the military and, so she went to her a week —— the mediterranean, and she came back and put pressure on. she managed to find a way to keep her influence here while in her home country being seen as further to the right. country being seen as further to the rirht. ,, . , country being seen as further to the ri. ht. ,, ., , , country being seen as further to the rit ht. ,, ., , , , country being seen as further to the riht. ,, , ,~ ., right. she has been very clever and is reall a right. she has been very clever and is really a revelation _ right. she has been very clever and is really a revelation of _ right. she has been very clever and is really a revelation of the - right. she has been very clever and is really a revelation of the past i is really a revelation of the past few years — is really a revelation of the past few years of eu politics, doing exactly — few years of eu politics, doing exactly what you said, being sort of hard right _ exactly what you said, being sort of hard right and on buddies but on the european _ hard right and on buddies but on the european stage, she understood to have influence, to shape eu policy, she had _ have influence, to shape eu policy, she had to — have influence, to shape eu policy, she had to be inside the tent and on those _ she had to be inside the tent and on those crucial issues, european union. _ those crucial issues, european union, nato, ukraine, she was on the film union, nato, ukraine, she was on the right side _ union, nato, ukraine, she was on the right side. the one thought i might leave _ right side. the one thought i might leave our— right side. the one thought i might leave our viewers with the night is that that _ leave our viewers with the night is that that could all come into question— that that could all come into question in november, when we have the us— question in november, when we have the us presidential election, and if donald _ the us presidential election, and if donald trump enters the white house, the calculus— donald trump enters the white house, the calculus could change once again in the _ the calculus could change once again in the european union, we have the film in the european union, we have the right wing _ in the european union, we have the right wing people who may decide to turn their— right wing people who may decide to turn their coat in a different direction _ turn their coat in a different direction and become more pro—puritan, less prone nato, to be in line _ pro—puritan, less prone nato, to be in line with — pro—puritan, less prone nato, to be in line with the incoming president. that is— in line with the incoming president. that is an _ in line with the incoming president. that is an interesting point, you think you could shift the politics in the european union if you were in power. in the european union if you were in ower. ., , .,, ~ in the european union if you were in ower. ., , ~ , ., ., power. for people like giorgia meloni, absolutely. _ power. for people like giorgia meloni, absolutely. there's. power. for people like giorgia i meloni, absolutely. there's the im act of meloni, absolutely. there's the impact of the — meloni, absolutely. there's the impact of the british _ meloni, absolutely. there's the impact of the british votes i meloni, absolutely. there's the impact of the british votes on l meloni, absolutely. there's the i impact of the british votes on july impact of the british votes onjuly four as well, just at the time when a potentially new government, if indeed the one the polls show might win at the uk, the labour party, just as they are try to burnish closer relationships with the eu, the eu is kind of entrenching on itself and looking where i we need to navigate the united states, potentially not being the security protector of crucial parts of europe at the time of war.— at the time of war. fascinating, really good _ at the time of war. fascinating, really good analysis _ at the time of war. fascinating, really good analysis from i at the time of war. fascinating, really good analysis from you . at the time of war. fascinating, i really good analysis from you both this evening, thank you for that, we will continue to watch. just to bring you the breaking news if you're just bring you the breaking news if you'rejustjoining us, emmanuel you're just joining us, emmanuel macron you'rejustjoining us, emmanuel macron punishing the for his renaissance party in france. he is called a stop election which will be held in june called a stop election which will be held injune and july i made the olympics, a real rolling of the 0lympics, a real rolling of the dice for the president on the back of a boatin for the president on the back of a boat in which the national ready of marine le pen has taken 32% of the vote. i am marine le pen has taken 32% of the vote. iam heading marine le pen has taken 32% of the vote. i am heading from marine le pen has taken 32% of the vote. iam heading from here marine le pen has taken 32% of the vote. i am heading from here to the hemi cycle for that it's a result, and in the next hour, so would be you plenty more reaction from me and nick and nina, thank you for watching. hello there. there's no signs of any hot, dry, sunny weather on the horizon. things have been cool for the time of year, for the last week or more. and it looks like this week ahead, temperatures will be taking even more of a tumble. it really will be quite chilly for this time injune. sunshine and showers for much of the week, though we could see quite a bit of dry weather around the middle part of the week. but gardeners and growers do beware, nights are going to continue to be on the chilly side. now, we've got rain spreading across the country through tonight. so it will be quite heavy across central, southern and eastern england for a while. but where we have the cloud and the rain, temperatures nine to 11 degrees, clearer skies for scotland, northern ireland here will turn chilly so into monday. then we've got low pressure sitting out towards scandinavia, feeding in northerly winds across the uk and that really will make it feel cool for this time injune, it'll be pushing in lots of showers into northern scotland. we have that rain across eastern england, east anglia through the morning. it will take its time to clear away. eventually it will do. and then we're into a bright day with sunshine and scattered showers. these showers, blustery, even wintry over the high ground across northern scotland. the wind more of a feature here. temperatures disappointing at ten to 13 degrees in the north, 14 to around 17, maybe 18 in the sunny spots across south wales, south west england. monday night we hold onto the showers. they fade away through the overnight period. for many, although they continue around some northern coasts, central areas will see the skies clear. so it's going to be another chilly night. temperatures in low single digits out of town, maybe even a touch of frost in some sheltered glens of scotland. so into tuesday, then, we've still got a run of chilly northerly winds, but this area of high pressure will start to topple in from the west. that should kill off a lot of the showers. however, it'll be a chilly but bright start with lots of sunshine. the cloud will tend to build through the day and along with the cloud, a few showers as well, central, northern and eastern areas most favoured for those. again, the winds strongest across eastern areas, lighter further west. temperatures ranging from around 11 to 17 degrees. wednesday looks like a ridge of high pressure being dry and settled weather. but then thursday onwards, low pressure starts to take over and it'll bring unsettled conditions to our shores. so wednesday not looking too bad at this stage, thursday and beyond temperatures recover a little bit, but it does start to turn wetter once again. live from london, this is bbc news. europe swings to the right, with voting almost over in elections for the european parliament. the far right national front party, fronted byjordan bordalla and marine le pen, trounce french president emmanuel macron's centrist right party in the polls. the french leader announces a surprise snap election. israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, is under pressure after a member of his war cabinet, benny gantz, quits and demands an election. a list of the things i am allowed on my new diet and the things i am definitely not allowed. the beloved tv presenter, michael mosley, who championed healthy living, has been found dead after he went missing on a greek island. tributes are pouring in from his family, friends, and fellow broadcasters. his legacy lives on, as everyone is saying. his infectious enthusiasm, his love of science, his almost unique ability to explain it. and uk election campaigning continues, cabinet minister mel stride insists rishi sunak "apologised unequivocally" for leaving d—day events early and the labour party pledges to build more prisons. narendra modi is sworn in as india's prime minister for a record—equalling third term. good evening.

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