muslim community is large and has been felt deeply and we are now seeing the electoral consequence. we have warned that it muslim population areas, wards, councils and constituencies of high muslim population areas, the position in gaza will have a serious electoral consequence and we are seeing that unfolds across the country. we consequence and we are seeing that unfolds across the country.- unfolds across the country. we are seeinu it unfolds across the country. we are seeing it here _ unfolds across the country. we are seeing it here clearly _ unfolds across the country. we are seeing it here clearly in _ unfolds across the country. we are seeing it here clearly in the - unfolds across the country. we are seeing it here clearly in the local. seeing it here clearly in the local elections, only a few results in, we do not want to exaggerate anything, but what potential impact do you think it could have on a general election? i think it could have on a general election? , think it could have on a general election? _ , think it could have on a general election? ,, , ., , election? iwill say this, if i was a labour mp — election? iwill say this, if i was a labour mp in _ election? iwill say this, if i was a labour mp in bradford - election? iwill say this, if i was a labour mp in bradford or- a labour mp in bradford or birmingham or leicester or parts of london, manchester, i'd be seriously concerned. while labour have had a fairly good night, which we are pleased with, across the country, in areas like oldham, bolton, even else at newcastle where there is a 32% muslim population and we had seen a decline in a labour vote, i am seriously concerned —— even elswick in newcastle. it is clear the position on gaza, the time it took to call for a ceasefire, to this day the refusal to go with allies in calling for an arms embargo to stop the killing of innocent people in gaza, is having an electoral consequence, so if i am a labour mp in those seats, i'm getting very nervous. ., ., ., , , ., in those seats, i'm getting very nervous. ., ., ., , ., nervous. you are nervous if you are a potential— nervous. you are nervous if you are a potential prospective _ nervous. you are nervous if you are a potential prospective labour- nervous. you are nervous if you are a potential prospective labour mp i nervous. you are nervous if you are | a potential prospective labour mp in those areas in the next election, so what is your message to keir starmer?— what is your message to keir starmer? ~ . ., ,, starmer? we have heard sir keir starmer? we have heard sir keir starmer say _ starmer? we have heard sir keir starmer say the _ starmer? we have heard sir keir starmer say the labour - starmer? we have heard sir keir starmer say the labour party - starmer? we have heard sir keir starmer say the labour party is i starmer? we have heard sir keir| starmer say the labour party is a change labour party and we are desperate to see a labour government, but that changed labour party cannot leave muslim populations in the rear—view mirror. historically muslims have been among the most loyal supporters of the labour party. we cannot now dismantle what has been decades and decades long relationships between muslim populations and the labour party. my call to sir keir starmer, please, please, this is the last warning, the last time we go to the polls before a general election, we had so much work to do regaining the trust of muslim voters which begins by calling for an immediate arms embargo of israel and make sure that muslim citizens feel like our lights and voices matter equally to those of others. i and voices matter equally to those of others. ., and voices matter equally to those of others. . ., , of others. i heard that in the broad oint, the of others. i heard that in the broad point, the specific _ of others. i heard that in the broad point, the specific of _ of others. i heard that in the broad point, the specific of arms - of others. i heard that in the broad i point, the specific of arms embargo, i heard that. is that it? what else, practically, do you want to keir starmer to do? the practically, do you want to keir starmer to do?— practically, do you want to keir starmer to do? , . , , ., starmer to do? the principle is, and the reality is — starmer to do? the principle is, and the reality is on _ starmer to do? the principle is, and the reality is on the _ starmer to do? the principle is, and the reality is on the ground, - starmer to do? the principle is, and the reality is on the ground, and - starmer to do? the principle is, and the reality is on the ground, and it l the reality is on the ground, and it pains me to say this, muslim populations on the grounds tell us they feel like their lights are not valued equally to that of others. we have seen a difference in policy between ukraine and gaza, we have seen the rise of islamophobia in this country, the economic consequences of racism towards muslims, muslim women are among the most economically disadvantaged in the country. in terms of policy and rhetoric we need to signs of —— sent a very clear message to muslims in this country that we not only value their votes but our lives as equal to others, we have to redouble our efforts to make sure that is done. i am sure keir starmer would say that lives are valued equally, that it shifted and went for a ceasefire. it took so long to do that but some of the consequences have been so damaging, we want to be seen as leaders in the world to try to end the conflict and bring about a two state solution and make sure no no more innocent lives are lost. many allies across the world are already calling for an end to the killing. our complicity in what is now over 35,000 people, 0ur complicity in what is now over 35,000 people, almost half of whom are children, having been killed in gaza, it needs to end, and it ends with an immediate arms embargo. in terms of winning back votes in muslim populations, that is the clearest message we can send that we have moved on, we have learned the lessons that we are seriously interested in winning back the trust of muslim voters. mi interested in winning back the trust of muslim voters.— of muslim voters. ali milani, thank ou for of muslim voters. ali milani, thank you forioining _ of muslim voters. ali milani, thank you forjoining us. _ of muslim voters. ali milani, thank you forjoining us. thank— of muslim voters. ali milani, thank you forjoining us. thank you. - i'm joined by dominic grieve. former attorney general for england and wales under david cameron. he stood as an independent mp at the 2019 elections after his conservative whip was removed. thank you for coming on the programme. thank you for coming on the programme-— thank you for coming on the i programme-_ a thank you for coming on the - programme._ a bad thank you for coming on the _ programme._ a bad night programme. good morning. a bad night for the conservatives, _ programme. good morning. a bad night for the conservatives, how _ programme. good morning. a bad night for the conservatives, how bad - programme. good morning. a bad night for the conservatives, how bad it - for the conservatives, how bad it your analysis? a girl pretty bad. i think it is terribly easy to get carried away, think it is terribly easy to get carried away.— think it is terribly easy to get carried away, think it is terribly easy to get carried awa , ., . , carried away, edge reinforces the icture carried away, edge reinforces the picture that _ carried away, edge reinforces the picture that has _ carried away, edge reinforces the picture that has been _ carried away, edge reinforces the picture that has been clear - carried away, edge reinforces the picture that has been clear for . carried away, edge reinforces the picture that has been clear for a i picture that has been clear for a considerable period that the conservative party has lost contact with its electorates, is forfeiting support in a whole variety of directions and its electoral prospects for the coming general election are, i think, completely dire. you look at the result for blackpool south, not only was the seat last but the conservatives struggled to come in second place in front of 34. in very socially disadvantaged seats, which that is one example. then you could look around the country to places like rushmore, where seats are being lost in areas that are traditionally pretty conservative. the patent is mixed, as in all local elections, so one has to be careful not to get carried away, but it is a picture of a political party which is already at local government level at a pretty low base, considering to haemorrhage support. what pretty low base, considering to haemorrhage support. what would you do if ou haemorrhage support. what would you do if you were — haemorrhage support. what would you do if you were conservative _ haemorrhage support. what would you do if you were conservative party - do if you were conservative party senior leadership right now? i’m do if you were conservative party senior leadership right now? i'm not sure very much _ senior leadership right now? i'm not sure very much can _ senior leadership right now? i'm not sure very much can be _ senior leadership right now? i'm not sure very much can be done, - senior leadership right now? i'm not sure very much can be done, when i senior leadership right now? i'm not i sure very much can be done, when you get yourself into this kind of rot, getting out of it, short of going out of love my country setting afterwards, it's very hard to, and history shows that all political parties. the conservative party has failed to deliver in government. it delivered brexit, which it adopted even though quite a few others were against it, and it is therefore saddled with the responsibility for its failure, because it is failing, its failure, because it is failing, it has delivered absolutely nothing and in fact has delivered a great many problems. it has failed more generally because the leadership of borisjohnson was catastrophic, as was that of liz truss, and resetting the party's reputation for good government, which has always been historically one of its big selves, we are a reputable group of people who even if we make mistakes are doing our best in the public interest, that image at the moment is lost and i feel very sorry for the prime minister, he is not personally responsible for that, although it is right to say he has not been able to arrest the slide which he had already inherited. what which he had already inherited. what about the argument _ which he had already inherited. what about the argument that he should go now? i about the argument that he should go now? ~ ., ., about the argument that he should go now? ~ . ., , now? i think that would be completely _ now? i think that would be completely crazy, - now? i think that would be completely crazy, it - now? i think that would be completely crazy, it will i now? i think that would be i completely crazy, it willjust reinforce in the public mind that the parliamentarians are a group of irresponsible idiots. what possible goodifs irresponsible idiots. what possible good it's getting rid of the prime minister now going to do in the six months before a general election, to replace him with somebody else who will face exactly the same problems and who on the evidence will have no better to them? i don't think that it's a solution at all, on the contrary, the risk is that the haemorrhage will get even greater, particularly if the new leader represents a lurch further to the right in the party, and this has been a pattern around now for some time. i been a pattern around now for some time. ., �* . ., , ., , time. i don't want to put words in our time. i don't want to put words in your mouth _ time. i don't want to put words in your mouth that _ time. i don't want to put words in your mouth that you _ time. i don't want to put words in your mouth that you don't - time. i don't want to put words in your mouth that you don't seem i your mouth that you don't seem overly optimistic. play and not devils advocate but the other way, what your reason for optimism could you draw from any of this for the conservatives?— you draw from any of this for the conservatives? . ,., , , conservatives? there are some signs of optimism. — conservatives? there are some signs of optimism, before _ conservatives? there are some signs of optimism, before we _ conservatives? there are some signs of optimism, before we talk - conservatives? there are some signs of optimism, before we talk about i of optimism, before we talk about the complete wipe—out, conservative councillors are holding seats, conservatives and local government are capable of delivering a well—run authorities, very good local government. it is possible but tomorrow we will discover that in birmingham and teesside the mayor of nice standing again for re—election will buck the trend because they have come across as�*s —— will buck the trend because they have come across as's —— pragmatic, reasonable and sensible and people with common sense. —— the mayors standing again for real action. it is an indication of what is needed if the parties to restore its fortunes but my concern is the party will lose the next election very badly and in the short to medium term will go off on a complete fantasy run further and further towards the populist right and will discover into big bets that in fact, far from discover into big bets that in fact, farfrom building support, they will lose more and more support from the centre ground, the only place where you can win elections in uk politics. you can win elections in uk olitics. . , . , you can win elections in uk olitics. . , ., . , politics. dominic grieve, as always, thank ou politics. dominic grieve, as always, thank you very _ politics. dominic grieve, as always, thank you very much _ politics. dominic grieve, as always, thank you very much for _ politics. dominic grieve, as always, thank you very much for coming - politics. dominic grieve, as always, thank you very much for coming on | thank you very much for coming on the programme. fascinating thoughts, though. let's look at the tees valley mayoral election. let's speak to richard moss, political editor, north east and cumbria. good to see you, give us the lay of the land _, good to see you, give us the lay of the land , . good to see you, give us the lay of the land _, , . . . the land counting began at about 9:30am, i was— the land counting began at about 9:30am, i was told _ the land counting began at about 9:30am, i was told it _ the land counting began at about 9:30am, i was told it is - the land counting began at about i 9:30am, i was told it is progressing fast, we were given an estimate of about 12:30pm but it might be sooner than that. they are counting on various different areas but this is where the results will be declared. ben houchen, who won with 73% of the vote last time, does not expect such a resounding vote this time, he says our vote is enough. his labour rival chris mcewan would love to beat ben houchen, he the poster boy for levelling up and it would be a huge blow to rishi sunak to lose as high—profile a mayor as this. labour have been downplaying expectations of winning, they want to push it as close as possible. it would be a triumph for ben houchen to win a third term in a region where the conservatives are pretty unpopular at the moment, but whether it is much solace to the conservatives or a personal vote, it is hard to tell. he has said it is about choosing the best person to lead this area and nothing about westminster politics, we will hopefully have the result in about one and a half, two hours. we will be back a little later, thank you. henry hill is acting editor of conservative home website. thanks for coming on the programme. what is your mood right now? tired. this is the last _ what is your mood right now? tired. this is the last stop, _ what is your mood right now? tired. this is the last stop, it _ what is your mood right now? tired. this is the last stop, it has _ what is your mood right now? tired. this is the last stop, it has been - this is the last stop, it has been an 11 hour meeting around. from the party because my perspective they are really waiting on the fillip from the mayoral results because the council elections we have had so far, with the exception of the few bright spots like harlow, have been really, really terrible for the government it —— for the government, they have lost hundreds of councillors and all of those councillors and all of those councillors they have lost our infantry they will have to do without at the general election. these days where party membership is down and activation is less a part of the life, local councillors and the family and friends they can cajole tojoin them the family and friends they can cajole to join them are vital parts of every pa rty�*s cajole to join them are vital parts of every party's rent machine. that it's really interesting, _ of every party's rent machine. that it's really interesting, i _ of every party's rent machine. that it's really interesting, i have not heard too much of the actual practical implications, notjust the straight arithmetic of losing people but i suppose the local infrastructure and the local influence too. what about some of the potential counterargument is that it the potential counterargument is thatitis the potential counterargument is that it is still early days, we don't have lots of results yet in these kinds of elections, governing parties tend to do pretty badly, any of those arguments?— of those arguments? governing arties of those arguments? governing parties can _ of those arguments? governing parties can do _ of those arguments? governing parties can do badly, _ of those arguments? governing parties can do badly, but - of those arguments? governing parties can do badly, but we . of those arguments? governing| parties can do badly, but we are measuring from 2021 when the conservatives as a governing party did very well. there are obviously limits to that. turnout is down, for example, in local elections compared to a general election, you could imagine there are quite a lot of under motivated tory voters, the residual core tory vote, who will turn out to vote in a general election, but that is cold comfort when you are losing by this margin. there is nothing to suggest these elections do not appreciate] very serious defeat in general election. because we have not a job the results at once, because we have moved especially for local elections over the last couple of decades towards counting over the weekend, the order in which we get the results really matters, so there is an argument that maybe the tory narrative over the weekend will end on a high note because, one, they are getting the mayoral elections and the expectation is ben houchen will hold on and the words i am hearing, very limited intelligence, is that andy street might hold on in the west midlands, which would be a majorfillip for the the west midlands, which would be a major fillip for the conservatives, but also those really, really bad council election results, that is where we were seeing far more reform candidates, reform uk have only stood in about one in eight seats overall but lots of those last night, they seem to have had an appreciable share on tory results because even when the vote is done spectacularly, they are losing seats so it might be that the results improve, butjust because of that narrative arc over the weekend ending on a high note and we have the media are as bad as falling for this as anyone does not take away from the results being terrible. just because you brought in reform uk, what do you think the potential impact is on the conservative party in a general election? the impact is on the conservative party in a general election?— in a general election? the big ruestion in a general election? the big question is — in a general election? the big question is whether _ in a general election? the big question is whether reform i in a general election? the big i question is whether reform uk in a general election? the big - question is whether reform uk is better or worse in by—elections and general elections. normally a party like the liberal democrats or the greens do better in by—elections because they have lots of activists often spread about the country and in a by—election they can put them all in one place. reform uk has very few activists and it is not a membership organisation switch relies on the national brand, there is actually a counter thesis to the normal by—election thesis which is that reform uk will do better when the major parties' resources are spread all over the country and it can maximise the impact of its brands. such results where they almost came in second and blackpool south last night, the nightmare scenario for hq as they are capable of putting vote shares in a lot of places in a general election by the conservatives will not be able to throw all of their resources at once each. . throw all of their resources at once each. , ., ., ., ,~' each. interesting. i have to ask about rishi _ each. interesting. i have to ask about rishi sunak _ each. interesting. i have to ask about rishi sunak because - each. interesting. i have to ask - about rishi sunak because questions are always asked. so far the commentators we have had in the last half hour have been unconvinced by any argument for replacing him, what is your thoughts? that any argument for replacing him, what is your thoughts?— is your thoughts? at conservative home we run _ is your thoughts? at conservative home we run a — is your thoughts? at conservative home we run a regular— is your thoughts? at conservative home we run a regular survey, i is your thoughts? at conservative | home we run a regular survey, we publish results today, almost two thirds of conservative party members we surveyed do not want rishi sunak to step down, they don't think the by—elections, the local elections, however bad, should be the trigger for that, however bad, should be the trigger forthat, because however bad, should be the trigger for that, because when we asked them last month they set about trying to change the leader now, going through the drawn—out process of a challenge and multiple rancid mps and that hugely damaging final stage we saw in 2022, they think doing that this close to an election without a clear contender or challenger, because most of them want to wait till the general election, isjust a recipe for disaster, so i think the conservative party members we have spoken to stand with the people you have spoken to on your show. regardless of whether individual mps support rishi sunak, we are too close to a general election for trying to change leader in a panic. i hope you get a bit of a break, henry. thank you for being on the programme. sirjohn curtice is professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. i spoke to him earlier. two principal messages are coming out of these election results, together with the parliament by—election in blackpool. the first is that so far as the gap between conservative and labour is concerned, nothing very much seems to have changed. in one sense that sounds like a surprising statement because the swing from conservative to labour in blackpool south at just over 26% conservative to labour in blackpool south atjust over 26% is the third biggest swing in post—war electoral history, but swings of that kind of sites have now become rather commonplace in the last year or so, we have had five by—elections in which the swing from conservative to labour has been just over 30%, so which the swing from conservative to labour has beenjust over 30%, so it is more of the same, in such parliamentary by—elections of the kind we have really not seen since the 92 to 97 parliament which ended in defeat for the conservatives. equally if we look at the detailed voting figures the bbc has been collecting overnight, and there are many more still to come, but so far it looks as though if anything support for the conservatives is a wee bit down on last year, support for the labour party certainly holding firm, might be slightly higher, anyway, there is no evidence here of a closing of the gap between labour and the conservatives, any narrowing of the labour leads. we have more of the same, just as the opinion polls have been suggesting. 0ne difference, anticipated by the opinion polls, is that we four uk were performing more strongly than last year, though they still didn't fight that many of the wars, but for the conservatives the intervention blackpool south almost greater the embarrassment of conservatives ending up in third place, and in local council elections, places like sunderland, where reform did particularly well, you discover it is the conservative party in particular that seems to suffer and that has been a message from the opinion polls in the last few months. it means the conservatives are still in as much trouble as one year ago with the added twist that they now have two parties biting into the votes, are you labour and reform, ratherthan into the votes, are you labour and reform, rather than perhapsjust one for the most part 12 months ago. fin for the most part 12 months ago. on the numbers, what will you be working on this morning and this afternoon to try to get the best possible picture and to try to translate to any general election? the two things that will be going on during the course of today, we will be looking at the scale of the conservative losses. at the moment they are losing one seat in two, meaning they could end up losing 500 seats, widely suggested before is a bad result. but the second thing they will be doing with the detailed voting figures i have already referred to was coming up with a projected national shire, not a focus for the general election in six months' time and not even a statement of what might have happened if we had had a general election on thursday but rather an estimate of what would have happened if the whole country had had local elections on thursday because only bits of england did, and people behaved in these local elections in much the same way as those parts of the country that had local elections. that is something we do every year and we will have to wait to see what we come up with. labour were at 35%, conservatives 1026 and the liberal democrats at 20%. the liberal democrats always do better in local elections and estimates than the national opinion polls. that is the benchmark, we will have to wait to see when we have more results in the second half of the afternoon. wendy chamberlain is the mp for north east fife and the liberal democrats' chief whip. earlier she gave her reaction to her party's performance. it is obviously very early days and we are hopeful of seeing real progress in places like tunbridge wells, wokingham and dorset later today, but all four councils we were defending, we have won, including in hull where we were facing off against labour, we have made gains in places like siren, suella braverman's back yard, and where we are looking tomorrow and expecting to make progress, that is exactly what we have done.— to make progress, that is exactly what we have done. what do you think this would translate _ what we have done. what do you think this would translate to _ what we have done. what do you think this would translate to any _ what we have done. what do you think this would translate to any general- this would translate to any general election? is there enough momentum? there were 80 seats we were second to the conservatives in 2019 and we are very clear about the work we are doing to ensure we bring as many lib dem mps to parliament as possible, and when you look again at the results overnight in places like eastleigh, cheadle, hazel grove, we have won the popular vote in those constituencies, demonstrating to me we are making the right progress as we are making the right progress as we look to the general election which, frankly, can't come soon enough. which, frankly, can't come soon enou:h. , ., ., ., enough. the reputation of the liberal democrats _ enough. the reputation of the liberal democrats as - enough. the reputation of the liberal democrats as they - enough. the reputation of the | liberal democrats as they over perform in local elections, elections between general elections effectively, and underperform during the general elections, so are you clear that you had to spout that stereotype of the liberal democrats? this will be looking like the local elections were for the sixth time in a row the liberal democrats have made progress, and we have never done that as a party. we have also won over 650 councillors in this term of parliament which is more than any other party, so i really think we are making huge progress and it is quite clear when you look at the four by—election winds we have had in this parliament that when we focus resources we do well, particularly given that the conservatives are in freefall. d0 conservatives are in freefall. do ou want conservatives are in freefall. do you want a general election sooner rather than later?— rather than later? absolutely, it is clear there — rather than later? absolutely, it is clear there is _ rather than later? absolutely, it is clear there is a _ rather than later? absolutely, it is clear there is a strong _ rather than later? absolutely, it is clear there is a strong and - clear there is a strong and consistent message the voters are giving to the conservatives. what else can they do in the time remaining to them? rishi sunak should accept now is the time for a general election. i should accept now is the time for a general election.— general election. i am sure you would have _ general election. i am sure you would have heard _ general election. i am sure you would have heard sir _ general election. i am sure you would have heard sir keir - general election. i am sure you i would have heard sir keir starmer general election. i am sure you - would have heard sir keir starmer in blackpool south talking about that messaging towards rishi sunak, it is stale, time for a change, get out the way, the country is moving forward in the labour, is that pretty similar to your messaging, does that encourage or worry you? i think it is quite clearly about change as a narrative coming forward. 0bviously change as a narrative coming forward. obviously i have not had if —— not had elections in north east fife, there are no local elections in scotland until 2027 but what i'm hearing is change, notjust in relation to conservatives but in relation to conservatives but in relation to conservatives but in relation to the snp where it looks like we will have a new first minister, three first ministers in the same amount of time that the conservatives have brought forward prime ministers and there is a need for change here in scotland too. let's out from labour's national campaign coordinator pat mcfadden. the most significant results overnight as the blackpool south by—election where we have won a stunning victory, 26% swing with the tories barely hanging on to second place and elsewhere in the local council elections gains like in hartlepool in the north which you have just been discussing, in rushmore in the south, we are feeling good, we thought a good, positive campaign, the results are good for us overnight so far and we have a lot more to come over the next couple of days. meanwhile, there was a headache forformer prime minister, boris johnson. he was turned away from a polling station when he went to vote in local elections because he forgot to bring adequate photo identification — a requirement he brought in when he was prime minister. mrjohnson introduced a law in 2022 making it compulsory for voters in england to show photo id. it's understood he later returned with the correct id let's ta ke let's take you to stockton—on—tees now, we have our live pictures right across england right now, we are waiting for various different results and i should stress that we have had lots of results in overnight through the night, as we always do, however we are nowhere near done. 0verthe always do, however we are nowhere near done. over the last few elections you may have noticed the trend away from knowing every single result when everyone wakes up, has breakfast and heads into work, now it can take a couple of days with different voting and vote counting schedules. that is why we are waiting for some crucial regional mayoral results which holds some hope for the conservative party, they have not had much to shout about, they will be hoping that the mayoral elections go their way. we will wait for that. let's go live to blackpool, a very good night for the labour party there, blackpool south by—election going the way of the labour party, a new mp the and celebrating and immediately calling for a general election, criticising rishi sunak, criticising the current conservative government and the arrival as you would expect, it was just about coming down the steps. he gave a speech there again. he was calling for a general election, saying the labour party is the future, the country once a future with labour and asking for rishi sunak, the prime minister, to call for a general election. but we have no sense yet of a general election date other than rishi sunak�*s previous indications that it would be the second half of this year, he has untiljanuary next year. but the assumption is still it will take place before the end of this year. you can keep up to date with all the results on the website, but for now, i'm a lewis vaughanjones, this is bbc news. this is bbc news. big conservative losses in local elections across england, with the party potentially facing its worst night at the polls in four decades. labour win the blackpool south by—election with a 26% swing of the vote. sir keir starmer hails his party's performance and has this message. we wa nt we want that general election and we are confident going into that general election, because what this by—election shows is that the country wants change. the lib dems have retained all the councils they held, while its been a strong night for the green party. this is the live scene of counting taking place in stockton and nottingham. we'll bring you the latest. hello, i'm lewis vaughanjones. plenty of results to pick through. but a big caveat, not all results are in yet. we may have to wait until saturday for the full picture of what has happened.