of unspun world. willa ramadan ceasefire affect benjamin netanyahu's push for total victory in the southern gaza city of rafah? israel needs hamas to believe that a terrible fate awaits hamas in rafah unless something changes on the ground. are donald trump's legal problems getting in the way of his re—election? will the independent voters in the suburbs of america want to vote for a man who's been indicted this many times? and barricades, rotting food and tear gas — europe's farmers are back and they're angry. what's different right now. is the reaction at leadership level and the intensity - of the anger that we're seeing. laughter and chatter do you like ice cream, too? asjoe biden found the other day, the problem with announcing that peace talks are making progress is that the two main sides are likely to deny it as part of their ongoing negotiating tactics. that's what happened almost immediately president biden said the words... my hope is, by next monday, we'll have a ceasefire. still, a ceasefire over ramadan and a prisoner exchange were probably always inevitable. the biden administration needs the israelis to halt their attack on gaza because it's starting to experience real political difficulties at home over the war. telljoe biden we do not support him. but what's really going on? i asked the bbc�*s diplomatic correspondent, paul adams, who's injerusalem. there's definitely a dialogue going on. there is an awful lot that needs to be sorted out still. how long would the ceasefire last? in how many phases? how many israeli hostages will be released in each phase? how many palestinian prisoners will be released in return? and what kind of prisoners? and then what will happen to the people in the gaza strip? will they be able to go back to their homes? and what, if anything, can be done to address the absolutely catastrophic humanitarian situation that exists there? so you sense that the two sides are still israel and hamas, that is pretty far apart, but you also sense that both sides want some kind of deal. and certainly the americans, who are playing an instrumental role in this, are desperate to get a deal in place before the start of ramadan, which is on march the 10th. does this mean also that mr netanyahu's also being a little bit pliable? because obviously the impression that he wants to give is that he's going for it, he's going to attack rafah, he's going to just carry on until total victory comes. i think it is about giving an impression and it is for consumption, both among israelis and particularly his rather hardline right—wing colleagues in his government, but also for hamas. i think israel needs hamas to believe that a terrible fate awaits hamas in rafah unless something changes on the ground. but i think there is another thing going on, which is the israeli military, as it looks at rafah, is looking at a terrible, awful, complex set of issues that need to be addressed. how do you attack a city where anywhere between 1.2 or 1.5 million people are huddled? where are those people supposed to go? if you think back to gaza city late last year and khan younis around the turn of the year, in each case, the attacks there were prefaced by, in some cases, weeks of messaging, maps published showing evacuation routes designed to get the civilian population out of harm's way, which was partially successful, i would say. the israelis also don't have the manpower in place. i would say an assault on rafah is probably months away, probably the other side of a ceasefire. and that raises the question of whether actually, ultimately, it will ever happen. but it's going to be difficult, surely, for mr netanyahu to say, "oh, well, you know, we're not going to go after "those hamas groupings," that he's talked so much about. you're right. what happens to the remaining handful of battalions that the israelis say they want to demolish? what happens to the smuggling routes from egypt underground into rafah that have enabled hamas to acquire weaponry over such a long time? those things have to be addressed from an israeli perspective if you're to avoid the kind of military necessity of going into rafah and just doing it all wholesale in the way that we've seen in other places. paul, the human rights organisation human rights watch says that israel is deliberately blocking life—saving aid into gaza. the israelis say, "the problem is not on our side. "we will allow as many trucks of aid in through those "crossing points — after we've checked them — "as you want. "the problem is on the palestinian side." and indeed, in a sense, the problem is on the palestinian side because the moment those trucks get in across the border, they're being looted, they're being attacked, which is making it almost impossible for the aid agencies to get the aid to the people who need it so desperately. but why is that situation prevailing? because israel has been attacking gaza for four—and—a—half months. so that is something that's going to have to be restored. remember you and i did a long interview in, i think, the late 19905 on the mount of olives? are things even nastier than when we had our conversation up there all those years ago? you know, for those of us who've been here on and off for a long time, it still had the power to shock you profoundly, but something, some kind of explosion, was kind of inevitable. if one can glean any hope from what has happened in the last four—and—a—half months, it is that it seems to have galvanised and concentrated minds all over the world about the need to break that cycle, to give palestinians some political horizon, and makes israelis obviously confident that they will be secure in the future. whether any of this will come to any kind of fruition, lord knows, but it is a kind of remarkable period. one of the main obstacles to former president donald trump in his attempt to win a second term next november is all the legal threats facing him. there are four criminal cases over the january the 6th uprising in washington over his alleged efforts to overturn the election result in georgia, over his handling of classified documents and over the alleged payment of hush money to the porn star stormy daniels. but there's also a slew of civil cases against him. iasked nomia iqbal, the bbc north america correspondent, for more details. there's two civil cases that he has been facing and this is to do with fraud in new york and defamation. this is against the author ejean carroll. so he is, at the moment, facing paying more than $500 million. how is he going to pay that staggering amount? and i think the short answer is, is that he will either pay it himself — does he have the money? we don't know — or have other entities post a bond on his behalf, which might be tricky. in a sense, the civil cases are ones that are bad for him because they go to the heart of who he is. his political persona is tied to his career as a wealthy businessman. that's not to say that the criminal cases he's facing aren't obviously really serious, but we've yet to see when they will happen because, at the moment, the legal calendar in that respect is sort of all over the place at the moment, john. he can pardon himself if he's president but, if he can't afford to become president, then nothing's going to work for him. well, he is using a lot of money from his political action committees to try and pay for his legal fees, but they don't really have enough money to cover that. he's also using his cases to raise money from his supporters so, obviously, asjournalists, we're signed up to all the candidates' campaign team emails and, every time he's indicted, every time he appears in court, you get an email that basically says, "i'm being persecuted. "can you pitch in some money for me?" at a recent fox news town hall, he was asked that question, "how are you going to pay for all of this?" and he compared himself, he pivoted and he compared himself to alexei navalny, which was trying to make out that he was being persecuted in the way navalny was. his lawyer is saying he's got the money, he can put it up, but, you know, donald trump is also known for not putting his own money forward when it comes to legal problems. and to go back to the criminal charges, he'll be able to pardon himself, will he, if he becomes president and if he's found guilty? in theory, yes. so that's certainly the case with the federal election interference case. that is the one to do with january the 6th, which will be held in washington, dc, and there's an argument that this is why him and his legal team are employing this strategy of delay, delay, delay, so they can kick this after the presidential election. but in terms of the georgia election interference case, which is also to do with 2020, it won't be easy. he can't pardon himself because that's at state level. let's just say he doesn't win the presidency and, actually, joe biden is victorious again, and he is convicted, then he's facing spending probably the rest of his life injail. it's an extraordinary position, isn't it, for any american presidential candidate to be in? do you think that these legal woes are going to hold him back or do you think that, as with everything else, he'll just walk through it? you know, john, it's really easy to almost become immune to donald trump. there's this steady drumbeat of court cases, of impending trials, of other issues. we've got various states trying to kick him off the ballot. for the, you know, the nation's 234—year history, no american president or former president has ever been indicted. and i have to sometimes stop myself and remind myself that you have a former president who wants to be president again, who's accused, amongst some things, of trying to overthrow democracy, of trying to overthrow the government, but also wanting to be part of the government of his own country again. and so you've got to ask yourself, will the independent voters in the suburbs of america want to vote for a man who's been indicted this many times? it's one of the most familiar images we associate with the european union — demonstrations of farmers demanding more money and better treatment and using whatever comes to hand as weapons — farm machinery, dung, rotten vegetables. in recent days, farmers have blocked a border crossing between poland and germany, thrown bottles at police in brussels and demonstrated in madrid. sorting out agriculture was one of the earliest tasks of the original six common market members and it's never been properly achieved. farmers get a very large proportion of eu spending, even though they nowadays earn a very small amount of its income. but it's a hard job and fewer europeans each year want to do it. i asked katya adler, the bbc�*s europe editor, for the background. so you have all sorts of european trade unions taking part in these protests and it ranges from representing, like, really big conglomerates, like, huge enterprises, to small family farms. what's different right now is the reaction at leadership level and the intensity of the anger that we're seeing at the moment. and anger about what? is it a whole range of things, or are there, kind of, patterns that you can detect? so there's concern amongst farmers that they are being asked to honour more and more restrictions, if you like, you know, environmental restrictions. so, for example, when it comes to pesticides, what kind of pesticide you can use, the strength of the pesticide you can use. this is all laid down in eu law. and what a lot of these farmers are telling us is, "look, it's all very well to impose "these conditions on us, but it raises "the cost for us as producers." now, you're organising these trade deals at the moment. there's one on the table. i mean, it's been discussed foryears, john, but, you know, it seemed like it was possibly getting towards agreement. it's called mercosur. it's with latin american countries. so a lot of european farmers are worried that you're going to have cheap beef imports coming in here, putting them out of business. and why are they cheaper? well, because a lot of the countries of origin in latin america, they argue, aren't sort of controlled by the same expensive environmental restrictions as eu farmers. i've been looking to see signs that particular political parties are kind of trying to take advantage of this. political parties are always going to try and make hay, if you forgive the pun here. i mean, you know, they're going to try and take advantage of a situation. we can look at it on an eu level and we can look at it on a national level. and because you've got european parliamentary elections coming up injune, it means that traditionally there's quite a low turnout for these elections and that works in favour of parties more on the extreme. parties of the fringes, extreme left, but particularly those on the hard right, will benefit in these elections. they are topping the polls in slovakia, for example, in poland, in italy for these european parliamentary elections. and that worries the mainstream in europe. as to whether they could really take control of the reins in the eu, that's really too far—fetched. often these parties don't work very well together, but what they can do is impede decision—making. what they can do when it comes to farming issues, for example, is roll back the so—called green deal. this is something the eu has been so proud of. the eu wanted to be ahead of everybody — the us, china, the uk — when it came to environmental protection and reducing greenhouse gases. let's take france. france, the biggest beneficiary of the common agricultural policy, those subsidies coming from the eu. farmers are a very emotive subject in france as they are in many countries. there's this sort of nostalgia and love of the french countryside. and as you know, of course, french food is very important in france. and that means that, even though the french farmers, you know, they descended on paris a few weeks ago, they sort of are blocking motorways, but actually opinion polls were showing the majority of french supported the farmers in their protests and strikes as they were sort of throwing manure all over the place, including at government buildings. a real worry for emmanuel macron, the french president, is that his nemesis on the far right, marine le pen, has been all over the place in france. and it's for years, i have to tell you, that she's been chasing the agricultural vote, really working hard and making it into one of these, you see this on the nationalist right, this sort of rhetoric of city folk versus country folk and metropolitan elites versus the ordinary people. and the french government are making quite anti—brussels noises at the moment because they want to be seen as being on the side of the farmers against eu green regulations and bureaucracy because they're worried about national opinion polls. when it comes to agriculture, when it comes to farmers, when it comes to the fishing industry as well, even though these may make up very tiny percentages of gdp, in the hearts and minds of citizens, it resonates far stronger. and it's because of that that national leaders are listening. and that's why you saw representatives from all of the eu member states coming to brussels this week to debate this very issue. the militaryjunta in myanmar, which we used to know as burma, is starting to hit real trouble after seizing power three years ago. to counter the rebellion by a range of opposition groups, which are becoming more and more successful, thejunta introduced compulsory military service for all young men and women at the start of february. but the opposition is winning battles and taking over increasing amounts of territory. i turned to soe win tan, editor of bbc burmese, for more information. so the military government, military never faced such a defeat in its history. so which sent the signal that military wasn't, as previously thought, indomitable. so thousands of army troops either died in the battlefield or they defected or they surrendered. so it's a great, great loss. it's a humiliation, isn't it? greatly humiliation. so some troops, they decided to abandon the outposts and surrender or defected. they knew that, even if they resisted, that they would not be reinforced. the question of conscription, how much difference will it make in burma and in the war? so they have asked or ordered all the young people, you know, aged from, like, 18 to 35, to serve in the military. so they don't want to, they try to kind of flee the country in droves. people are kind of applying for passports, applying and queuing up for visas in front of the neighbouring countries. some people who cannot leave the country, who have no means to go away, they will have to stay in the country and they will be forced to join the military. but would that make a difference in the battlefield? i don't think so. how much those kind of young conscript become an effective fighting force, that's an illusion. and the rebels, they don't really have any kind of unified political or military structure, do they? it's not in a unified structure, but they have one common aim, which is to defeat the military and to end this military�*s dominance in the country's politics. and also, they are common in the agreement that the country needs to be a federal democracy after they have defeated the military. so, for now, they are united in that one purpose. but you're right, like, they have their own priorities, ethnic armed groups, their priority is for their own bigger autonomy. and also, there is a parallel sort of, like, exiled government formed by the lawmakers of the last elections, which the regime kind of did not recognise. but their representatives are travelling the world and many kind of governments like the uk government, american government officials also, receiving them and then giving them some support. what about the position of china? first, they were fully behind thejunta in burma, but it doesn't quite seem like that now. not completely moving away, but you are right there. their stance is much more nuanced now than previously. myanmar is strategically very important for china. for the chinese, they need to have this gateway to indian ocean. they already built like, you know, the pipelines transporting gas and oilfrom middle east and north africa through myanmar to china. so china has been sort of, like, planning multibillion dollar development projects, infrastructure projects in the country. that's why they need to have a good relationship with the current government, which is the military regime. there are lawless areas, especially along the border with china, where online scheming, you know, all the criminal syndicates were freely operating there. china asked myanmar regime, junta, to crack down on them. some of their commanders in those areas are profiting from those illicit businesses. they were very reluctant to do that. analysts believe that, yes, china was cosying up to military up to some point. but when they did not go along what china asked, they also came in and asked the ethnic leaders to do thejob. but when the ethnic leaders go beyond that remit, which is just after cracking down, they put the stop on them again, which means, like, both sides are now reliant on china's kind of support. china playing very cleverly. what about the position of aung san suu kyi? she is injail. she'll stay in jail presumably for as long as the junta is in power. does she have a political future or is she finished now? she is 78, so looking like that she would spend the rest of her life in prison. the other thing, interesting thing, is that she always styled herself. her policy is nonviolent, but what is happening in the country, those ethnic groups and all these kind of militias, you know, people's defence groups, young people, they said that, even if she comes out now and tells them to stop, they wouldn't because they see that they have to defeat the military. soe win than of bbc burmese. the world changed a lot in 2022 when russia invaded ukraine, but it's changed even more five months ago, on the 7th of october, when hamas attacked a rock concert, ironically in favour of peace, and several towns along the border with gaza. 1,200 people died in the hamas attacks. 30,000 gazans have died in israel's military operations since then. that's a ratio of 25 palestinians to every one israeli. ferocious divisions of opinion have erupted in many countries, particularly in the west. jews in britain, france and germany say they're increasingly afraid to go out on the streets now. in britain, bothjewish and muslim mps have received death threats, and the speaker of the house of commons has said he's worried about the danger to the lives of some mps. in the us, president biden was following the standard american policy of supporting israel, but he's found that it's damaging his chances at the coming election with people who would normally have voted democrat. in the state of michigan, muslim voters who were crucial to his victory over donald trump in 2020 are now threatening to spoil their ballot papers. the ferocity of feeling will die down, of course, but opinion seems unlikely to settle back to where it was. a woman writing in the liberal israeli newspaper haaretz says that anyone, she particularly means any israeli, who criticises israel's policy towards the palestinians is now likely to be branded a supporter of terror, anti—semitic, jew—hater. and in the meantime, in britain, the us and elsewhere, future support for israel will be more nuanced. and for now, moderation, calmness and balance may be in short supply everywhere. well, not, we hope, though, here at unspun world. thank you for being with us. and until we meet again, goodbye. hello. friday was the first day of meteorological spring but it was also a day that winter refused to relinquish its grip. here in northern ireland, enniskillen seeing a fresh fall of fairly chunky snow. there was also some snowfall over the peak district. this is the cat and fiddle road, the road that goes between macclesfield and buxton. it's quite high up but we had some problems reported on that as well. low pressure, then, has been across the uk with this cold air mass in place. we've got lots of showers at the moment, particularly across england and wales, northern scotland, and this band of rain and hill snow across parts of the far north of england and southern scotland. now, there is a chance of seeing a centimetre or two of snow across the cheviots, the north pennines, the southern uplands over the next hour or two, so it could get quite icy here and also in the showers affecting the higher parts of wales, again, above 200 metres elevation, you might come across an odd centimetre or two of snow across the high ground here. temperatures getting close, if not below, freezing in a few areas, so there will be a risk of a few icy patches heading into the first part of saturday morning. then, we've got this clump of more organised showers working across wales in the midlands. well, they could have a bit of sleet or snow mixed in, probably struggling to settle, and quite a few of those showers will still have just cold rain. it is a day where showers are going to be really widespread on saturday, some of them with hail and thunder. and although there'll be a bit of sunshine between the showers, those sunnier moments probably quite short—lived. temperatures below average — about 6—9 degrees celsius. now, the same area of low pressure stays with us through saturday night and into sunday. it will tend to drift northwards, it will tend to weaken somewhat and so, of the two days of the weekend, sunday looks like it's likely to be the better in terms of weather. should be a fair bit of drier weather after a locally misty and foggy start to the day — a better chance of seeing some sunshine. there'll still be a few showers around, particularly for scotland and northern ireland, one or two wales and western england, but bigger gaps between those showers and a bit more in the way of sunshine. it will continue to feel cool, though, for the time of year. into next week, low pressures continue to move in off the atlantic from the west but they're running into this area of high pressure that's centred over scandinavia and so, we're going to get something of an east—west split with the weather. for western areas, it stays quite cloudy with the threat of further outbreaks of rain. eastern areas tending to become drier, sunnier and a bit milder as well. that's the latest. bye for now. good morning. welcome to breakfast, with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. our headlines today: a plea to face down extremists threatening democracy. the prime minister makes a rare downing street address in the wake of george galloway�*s victory in the rochdale by—election. there are forces here at home trying to tear us apart. we must be prepared to stand up for our shared values in all circumstances. president biden says he hopes to see a dealfor a ceasefire in the israel—gaza war in time for the start of ramadan. police are searching for two suspects after three people were injured in a shooting that happened during a police chase in south london. pushing it to the max. world champion max verstappen dominates qualifying to take pole position for today's opening race of the new formula one season. # baby, baby, you can go ahead... after a record—breaking seven award nominations, will singer—songwriter raye win big at the brits tonight? the weather stays on the chillier side of things this weekend. plenty of showers around, especially today. tomorrow more of you will spend

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